THE IMPACT OF THE PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION PROJECT ON THE ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PANAMA AND TAIWAN 學生: ELVINS KELSINS SANTANDER CEDENO 學號: 600330426 教授: Ren-YowHuang 黃任佑 Tamkang University 淡江大學 Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, Master’s Program 國際事務與戰略研究所, 碩士班 Thesis Proposal 論文建議 2012 1 Background Introduction Panama in the heart of Central America was certainly a country of enriched by many natural resources, Throughout its history this small country became a real trade center famous for it regional financial center, its free zone market and of course the Panama canal The arrival of the first Chinese immigrants to Panama was produced in the mid 1850’s specifically coming from the province of Canton, in order to participate in the construction of the first railway in Panama. According to Panamanian Historianchinese Origen Juan Tang in his book Chinese footprints in Panama (Huellas Chinas en Panama)1 Economic development and cultural and social contribution of the Chinese community in Panama has been developed for over 150 years and today this community almost reached the figure of more than 200,000 in a country with a population of 3.5 million people Althoughgovernment by kuomintang politic party of the move from mainland china after they failed the civil war against Chinese communist party the Republic of China in 1949 that brought the rise of Taiwan, Panama continued its diplomatic relations and maintaining a historical development of economic, cultural and social trends. Today Panama is a country on the rise, its economy is one of the largest in Latin America and that is why this year ECLAC2 reflected in its annual report that leads an economic growth in the region with 8% above countries such as Peru that would register for this year (2012) a growth in GDP of 5.7%, Bolivia with 5.2%, Costa Rica and Venezuela of 5%, Chile with 4.9%, Mexico with 4%, Argentina with 3.5% and Brazil with 2.7%.3 1http://www.rlp.com.ni/noticias/11816/documentan-llegada-de-los-chinos-a-panama-hace-150- anos. 2Economic commission for latin America (ECLAC) The spanish acronym is CEPAL. 3http://www.prensa.com/uhora/economia/panama-encabeza-la-proyeccion-de-crecimientoeconomico-regional-cepal/100420 2 This positive economic impact is made possible because panama currently investing heavily in the country for example, the construction of the first subway, the modernization of the bus system, large investments in the construction sector but mainly, the most ambitious project of all times, the modernization of the Panama Canal through the construction of the extension and third set of locks. The modernization of the Panama Canal comes along with significant challenges which to build and give the world for decades a service that meets the demands of globalization and can help contribute in the economic development of other countries. Taiwan currently maintains a free trade agreement with Panama and in turn is a major user of the Panama Canal. We can say that the canal expansion will serve many major Asian shipping companies including the capital of Taiwan to develop further and thus have a sustainable economic development in the coming decades. Once the expansion project is set, we would see how much it can benefit both countries and what type of economic technique will be utilized by implementing analytical methods such as SWOT/PEST that can lead us to have successful results for both countries in the next 20 years. i. Research motives For many years, Panama has been a world center of commercial exchange, cultural and economic well so is known as the center of the world, heart of the universe and the crucible country race. Taiwanese companies and producers and Panamanian businessmen presently benefit from a free trade agreement currently other Asian countries did not have this advantage and can help much to improve the economy of both countries through trade. Canal expansion plays a very important role in the national economy of Panama, and it is no secret that Taiwanese-funded enterprises will benefit as this megaproject starts working for the benefit of the world. 3 The social economic and cultural impact of both countries would be subject to study as long as they continue to maintain stable diplomatic relations, and there is no unbalance in the world economy over the next 20 years. ii. Research Objectives 1.Analyze the presence of the Chinese people in Panama since its inception and also study their economic contributions through social cultural history and what their contributions were in the Panama Canal 2. Analyze the expansion project of the Panama Canal since its inception. 3. Studying and understanding the behavior of economic and political relations between Panama and Taiwan multinational investments from maritime companies in Panama, especially Evergreen Group and its implications. 4. Analyze the economic, social and political impact between Panama and Taiwan once the Panama Canal expansion project has been finished in the next 20 years. Literature review Category 1: -Title: Antecedents of Chinese man in Panama and its history until today. -Chinese Footprints in Panama, 150 years of presence, John Tam, printed in Panama by Unique Printers, 2006. (Huellas Chinas en Panamà, 150 años de Historia) This book written by the Chinese-Panamanian Juan Tam also takes us into the origins of the Chinese man to Panama over 150 years ago when they reached a population of 705 that helped start work on the first Panama Railroad. It is very important to recognize that its origins to the Chinese presence in Panama was not easy for these people, who faced difficult situations such as the clash of culture and traditions, but their contribution to the Panamanian economy and the development of 4 this country is reflected in each of the most important passages that have left this ethnic group in Panama - Why, When and How didtheChinnese people arrive in Panamà, Berta Alicia Cheng P, poyectos editorials, Panamá, 2010. (Porque, Como y Cuandollegaron los Chinos a Panamà) In this book of the well known and famous Chinese-Panamanian writer Berta Alicia Chen analyzing how the Chinese community in Panama and what were their contributions in building the Panama Canal since its inception and the people and companies who contributed to this giant work early last century that remains as a truly wonderful work of engineering. The Chinese people were always characterized by working in the fields and small shops (small shops selling food or items) reason why they were helping to feed the large number of employees who were working on the building of the canal. The Chinese people were fully trust by everyone at that time according to the author who wrote that the black employees gave their money to the Chinese people that owned small shops near the canal construction to save money4 -Centenary of the Republic of Panama: Economic and institutional history.by Nicolas Ardito Barletta, Ernesto Ayala Molina, L. ArtaviaLoríaArtavia edited by San Jose, C.R. year 2005 Hundred years of economic evolution lived panama, dramatic transformation in all aspects nacional activity5 we can say that this book contains all the aspect happened in Panama's economic in the early years and last years of the previous century and what 4Why, When and How the Chinnese people arrive in Panamà, Berta Alicia Cheng P, poyectos editorials, Panamá, 2010. (Porque, Como y Cuando llegaron los Chinos a Panamà) pag 42. (Como cuando y porque llegaron los chinos a Panamá) 5Centenary of the Republic of Panama: Economic and institutional history. by Nicolas Ardito Barletta, Ernesto Ayala Molina, L. Artavia Loría Artavia edited by San Jose, C.R. year 2005 pg 3. 5 were the engines of development to the panama we can see now, a country in development. -The history of Panama The Greenwood histories of the modern nations, Robert C. Harding, printed united state of America year 2006. The author gives us a direct approach to the history of Panama but we want to analyze how the Panama Canal was done and also how did the democracy won after the fall of dictator Manuel Antonio Noriega and at the same time see how panama emerged from dictatorship and an economic crisis that left the country in ruins. It is estimated that the country needed to rebuild around $ 2 billion, the United States after having invaded the country pledged to help end country6 but were the same Panamanians who raised this country together with investment and democracy and the successor governments followed by the regime of dictatorship. Analysis y considerations: It is very important to note that the results we found through this research we needed to know the history of Panama and the Chinese man in this nation since its inception and analyze the economic relations that have existed between the two countries. I agree with the points made by both authors, in which they made research through years and managed to write about the development of this class in our country and what did they provided to the Economic Development and social culture of the Republic of Panama. Category 2. Title: The Panama Canal and the Canal Expansion project. -Master Plan canal expansion project 2005 2025, Author Panama Canal Authority. Edited by ACP Year 2006. 6The history of Panama The Greenwood histories of the modern nations, Robert C. Harding, printed united state of America year 2006. Pg 120 6 The Panama Canal through the ACP 7 produced the only document that was released on the 7th of June 2006 in order to announce the plan to expand the canal and their long-term goals. This document was prepared to take many years of research and it contains specific and accurate details of the expansion project from the beginning, and how it should develop. -The Panama Canal, A study in international law and diplomacy. Harmodio Arias, Honolulu Hawaii year 2000. Before analyzing the importance of the Canal expansion is very important to know the factors and reason of why the panama canal receives international status. That's why in this important book Panameniam,Harmodio Arias speaks a little more about the U.S. presence in the canal and we analyze how much control had the United States and may have had control over the Panama Canal. The author discusses the importance of inter-ocean canal in all nations of the world and especially in the maritime sector, and also shows each of the treaties and conventions that were used to get to build this work. -The united states and the Americas, Panama and the united State. The forced alliance, MichaellConnifprinted united state of America second. edition 2001. Is very important to note that the Panama Canal and its success is not achieved alone, that is why we need to get into the components thathad the Panama canal to achieve, that is why the book written by Connifmichaell a tells the work on the Colon Free Zone and ports that were developed in the mid-90s, so we will analyze the first port and the first congress in Panama near Colon Free Zone for example the Taiwanese company evergreen who won the award of the former military base at Coco Solo and currently operates one of the most important contenders ports center8 7Panama canal authority (PCA) the Spanish acronym is ACP. united states and the Americas, Panama and the united State. The forced alliance, Michaell Connif printed united state of America second. edition 2001. PG 177. 8The 7 Analysis and Recommendations. Importantly, in this category we will be focused first on the Canal expansion and its project since its inception. The ACP9 panama announced to the world and a document of great importance because this is where everything started, this document said when was the canal built and where there have been some forecasts and some expected outcomes of this megaproject. We disagree on some points and we are confident that if the Panama Canal project costs not actually talking about a projected debt situation and then distort the results expected In the following study documents that we will be analyzing the panama canal itself and some treaties or agreements already talked about future projects and their importance in the maritime world and also see the ports and see the colon free zone as complementary to the middle of the nineties began to grow product sales of the former military bases of the United States in Panama. Category 3. Economic Impact between Panama and Taiwan ROC. -Collection of papers of the ninth international symposium on Latin America in the Republic of China, Graduate Institute of Latin American Studies, Tamkang University, 2005. In this paper it packs a lot of exhibitions and study sections, in which discusses about economic models and commercial cooperation between Latin America and Taiwan from the economic point of view 10 We may also analyze the conclusions and 9Panama Canal Autority. (PCA) the Spanish acronym is ACP. of papers of the ninth international symposium on Latin America in the Republic of China, Graduate Institute of Latin American Studies, Tamkang University, 2005 pg 157 10Collection 8 recommendations from their point of view dealing with their digital age based economy knowledge11. -Changes in the Commercial Environment hemispheric opportunities and obstacles. Mark Rosenberg, FLACSO-Chile 1993. The new world economic order which we have been going through the past years have led to draw conclusions such as those who say that the climate of international trade is changing so drastically that economic partnerships could eventually replace military agreements future analyzes of national security according to Carolyn lamm12 In this document will discuss the opportunities that economic alliances from Latin American countries such as Uruguay or Brazil the reason why we will see the reason of the study of this alliances is to analyze and look for opportunities that can be and challenges afforded by the ROC Panama and Taiwan in the coming years. -Globalization and inclusive alternative to VVI century Basave Jorge Alejandro Dabat, Carlos Morera. UNAM Institute of Economic Research 2002.(Globalizacion y alternativasincluyentespara el siglo VVI) In this book discuss the gobalizacion from the global scenery and the global search for answers so we can see the reality of the current global capitalism. To learn more about this global phenomenon will have to take a look at American scenarios especially Panama and see how far you get to put globalization competing companies in search of excellence and monopolize territories. Innovative companies often multinationals have become the engine of the globalization process and its investment strategy and determine the new location 11ibid. 12Changes in the Commercial Environment hemispheric opportunities and obstacles. Mark Rosenberg, FLACSO-Chile 1993 pg 231. 9 international13 order so we can say that the Canal expansion is a global demand conditions that have been the world today . Analysis and recommendations. In this category we analyze the current international economic cooperation models and how these models help and give strength to the companies so they can hold and may have competitiveness in a globalized world. Market globalization and competitiveness is undoubtedly the most important factor and is now responsible for the Panama Canal this is a process of modernization, and the reason why we will see how this will bring prosperity inversion long as no external factors such as competition panama canal affect far companies and give a strength to this important global work. Just so, when we can analyze the behavior of enterprises, the current processes of globalization where we are and also the international economic models currently implementable Latin America can get a give our conclusions, findings and our opinions in this research project. 1. Hypothesis 1. Finalization of the Panama Canal expansion we can find their true costs were compared with those presented in preliminary reports before the project started, so then we can find that will be as profitable and beneficial for the country and the world. 2. Many Asian companies among those the Taiwanese capital for example CFZ Taiwanese co, Mega International Commercial bank ICBC, evergreen Group, embassy of ROC Taiwanin Panama, will see a positive impact on their profits sumac given the benefits meant for them to use this route as important to the world, this will be reflected in a significant increase in commercial exchange of their goods and services and so we 13Globalization and inclusive alternative to VVI century Basave Jorge Alejandro Dabat, Carlos Morera. UNAM Institute of Economic Research 2002.( Globalizacion y alternativas incluyentes para el siglo VVI) pg. 137 10 can take them to other countries among those south Central Europe and North America as well. 3. The impact on the economy will be reflected panama when vessels start to move as much tonnage ( post-Panamax) but also is necessary to know the possible negative impact and repercussion for example the incomplete project a canal in Nicaragua, politic aspect, gobal economy and American market decadence 4. The social, cultural and economic impact will be of significance in our country when we will see Taiwanese venture capital firms in the Panamanian economy and also study the extent to which the population will grow Chinese Panamanian in the next 20 years. 2. Methodology In this project we focused on history books dealing with issues such as the presence of Chinese and Taiwanese companies in panama both will have reference books dealing with the history of Panama and the Panama Canal also be using basic economics books , shipping companies and multinationals. As a secondary reference discuss the canal expansion project prepared by the Panama Canal Authority and the tripartite commission composed of the United States, Japan and Panama.14 Other references with which we will have are the magazines, brochures, newspapers and abroad, face to face interview with project engineers panama canal and research through websites that can give us a different approach to how other countries see continents this project and its impact on both countries between Panama and ROCTaiwan here. Begin by reviewing principal bibliography, historical research and so within the analysis process will develop and understanding their positive and negative impacts of 14I will be traveling to republic of Panama in january 2013, for conduct interviewsin the expansion project. 11 the canal by method of SWOT/PEST, And finally give conclusions perspective observations and recommendations. Example: 15 3. Expected contributions One of the main contributions is to deliver this research economic relations department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Panama and thus may have a pattern of economic analysis between the two countries as the main determinant using expansion project of the Panama Canal . We also hope to deliver this project to the library Simon Bolivar University Panama where it can also serve as a reference for students to provide an educational tool capable of assisting the training of students. I hope to donate this document to the diplomatic library of the Ministry foreign affairs in ROC Taiwan. 4. Research limitations In the current investigation we can establish that one of the limitations with greater value is that at the present time there is no record of considerable books related to the expansion of the Panama Canal. 15Figure: analysis ofSWOT/PEST. 12 On the other hand we have a problem linked to the fact that the majority of references utilized such as books, newspapers and more and in Spanish. Since my native language is Spanish I will do my best to be accurate and perfect with translations and make sure the reader has a clear and precise understanding when the time comes to develop certain analysis. 5. Chapter arrangement I - Introductory Proposal Background introduction Research Motives Research Objectives Literature Review Hypothesis Methodology Expected contributions Research Limitations Analytical Framework II –Background about the Expansion of the Panama Canal. 2.1 Arrival of the first Chinese Immigrants. 2.2 Diplomatic Relations Between Panama and the ROC. 2.2.1 Relations Between Republic of China-Panama before the 1947. 2.2.2 Relations Between ROC Taiwan-Panama after the 1947. 13 2.3 The Panama Canal in the century XXI and the relations with ROC Taiwan after 1947. III- -Panama Canal Expansion Project 3.1 The Tripartite Commission and the 2006 national referendum in Panama 3.2 Costs and projections of the Panama Canal 3.3 Development and current progress of the canal expansion project IV –Overall vision of the economic impact between Panama and Taiwan ROC after completion of the expansion project Panama Canal 4.1economic challenges of transnational corporations and the Colon Free Zone in the next 20 years 4.2 The free trade agreement between Panama and Taiwan 4.3 Vision strategy to implement political and economic objectives to achieve prosperous communes to Panama and Taiwan 4.3.4 analysis of SWOT FODA and economic and political impact of the expansion of the channel with Taiwan ROC 4.4 analysis and recommendations V- Conclusion 14 15 VI- Bibliography English bibliography Anderson David, Sweeney Dennis j. Williams Thomas A. Stadistic for business and economics, west publishing company, 1987. Chow, Peter C. Y. Taiwan in the Global Economy. Westport, Connecticut: PRAEGER, 2002. Dev Gupta, Atya. The Political economy of globalization.Massachussetts: Kluwer academic Publisherts, 1997. Frieden Jeffry A. Lake David A. International political Economy, perspective on global power and wealh, st. Martins Press, 1995. Gilpin Robert, the Political economy of international relations, Princeton University Press, 1987. Harmodio Arias. The Panama Canal.A study in international law and diplomacy.Honolulu Hawaii year 2000. MichaellConnifThe united states and the Americas, Panama and the united State. The forced alliance, printed united state of America second. edition 2001 Nicholson, Michael. Formal theories in international Relations. Cambridge university press, 1995 Ocampo, jose Antonio and Juan Martin, globalization and Development, a latin American and carribean perspective. Chile: standford University press, 2003. Pugel Thomas A. International Economics,macgraw-hill/Irwin 2007. The history of Panamà the greenwood histories of the modern nations, Robert C. Harding, printed united state of America year 2006. 16 Viotti, Paul R. and Mark v. Kauppi. International Relations Theory Realism, Pluralism, Globalism, and Belond. 3 ed. Massachusetts: longman publishers, 1999. Spanish bibliography Aldo FerrerHistoria de la globalization,origen del ordeneconomicomundial, impreso en argentina. 1996. Berta Alicia Cheng, Como cuando y porquellegaron los chinos a Panamá,poyectos editorials, Panamá, 2010 Carlos Fernandez, Roberto Hernandez, PilarBaptistaMetodologia de la MoreraGlobalizacion y investigacion,.Primeraedicion, McGraw-Hill, 1991. ConstituciónPolitica de la República de Panamá Jorge Basave, Alejandro Dabat, Carlos alternativesincluyentespara el siglo VVI, Instituto de investigacioneseconomicas UNAM 2002. Juan Tam Huellaschinas en Panamá 150 años de presencia, impreso en Panamá porUnicosImpresores, 2006 Mark Rosemberg, Cambios en el Ambiente Commercial Hemisferico, Oportunidades y Obstaculos, FLACSO- Chile 1993. 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