Climate change, vulnerability
and adaptation in agriculture –
the situation in Italy
Domenico Ventrella
Agricultural Research Council
Agronomic Research Institute
Via C. Ulpiani 5, 70125 Bari (Italy)
1
Most of rainfall is concentrated in winter season
Irrigation represents the main agro-technique for obtaining yield of some economic interest
72 % of the available water in the Med. area is used for agricultural purposes
after www.climateandweather.com
2
The current situation: agriculture and water needs
(data of 2000)
Agricultural area (ha)
16,000,000
13,206,296
3,000,000
> 20%
2,000,000
1,583,022
Irrigated area (ha)
2,471,380
12,000,000
8,000,000
5,451,559
4,865,935
1,000,000
2,888,802
4,000,000
30%
0
Northen
Central
64%
Southern
>12%
679,708
208,650
0
Italy
Northen
0%
6
>
Central
Southern
Italy
Irrigated farms (n)
Irrigable area (ha)
800,000
5,000,000
3,892,141
4,000,000
3,000,000
28%
600,000
2,346,175
400,000
2,000,000
1,108,431
1,000,000
7 ha
2 ha
200,000
437,535
0
0
Northen
Central
Southern
Italy
Northen
Central
Southern
after Papaleo A., 2004. RAPPORTO DI ANALISI TO DI ANALISI SUGLI INVESTIMENTI IRRIGUI
NELLE REGIONI CENTRO SETTENTRIONALI, a cura di R. Zucaro.INEA
Italy
3
0
Others
Soybean
Sugar beet
Cytrus
Vineyard
Trees
Orticol. crops
Forage
Maize
Crop distribution in Italy (ha)
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
4
Horticultural Crops in Italy (ha)
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
North
Centre
South
5
Tree Crops in Italy (ha)
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
North
Centre
South
6
The irrigation methods in Italy
Percentage (%)
80
North
Center
South and Islands
60
40
20
0
Surface
Flood
Sprinkler
Localized
Drip
Other
Irrigation method
after Papaleo A., 2004. RAPPORTO DI
ANALISI TO DI ANALISI SUGLI
INVESTIMENTI IRRIGUI NELLE
REGIONI CENTRO SETTENTRIONALI, a
cura di R. Zucaro.INEA
7
The climate in Italy
Alpine Zone
In the Italian Alp region, where the higher mountains rise to
above 3,000 m, the climate is similar to that of the Swiss and
Austrian Alps with heavy precipitations.
Summer tends to be the rainiest season and thunderstorms are
frequent in spring, summer, and autumn.
8
The climate in Italy
The Po Valley and North Italian Plain
This is a remarkably flat region of dense population and
great agricultural productivity. It extends from Turin to
Venice.
It has a distinctive climate with rain well distributed around
the year. The summers are as hot and almost as sunny as
those in southern Italy. Winters are cold for about three
months.
9
The climate in Italy
Peninsular Italy and the Islands
The long Italian peninsula, from Genoa and Rimini in the North
to Reggio Calabria and Lecce in the South, has a mountainous
interior.
The coastal regions, where most of cultivated lands are located,
have a typical Mediterranean climate with mild winters and hot
and generally dry summers. The length and intensity of the
summer dry season increases southwards.
10
The climate variability in Italy
From:
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY IN ITALY IN THE
LAST TWO CENTURIES FROM HOMOGENISED INSTRUMENTAL TIME
SERIES
M. BRUNETTI, M.MAUGERI, F. MONTI and T. NANNI
Int. J. Climatol. 26: 345–381 (2006)
11
The climate variability in Italy
Data base at monthly scale included:
1) 67 mean temperature series
2) 48 minimum and maximum temperature series
3) 111 precipitation series
From 120 to 200 years
1) Homogenization and gap filling
2) Clustering of the stations into climatic regions
3) Calculation and analysis of seasonal annual
mean regional records
12
The Temperature variability in Italy
Three Regions on Temperature Basis
Alpine Region: AL
Po Plain: PP
AL
PP
PI
Peninsular Plain: PI
Adapted from Brunetti et al. 2006
13
The Temperature Variability in Italy
T mean
T max
T min
Yearly series
Winter series
Spring series
Summer series
Autumn series
Adapted from Brunetti et al. 2006
14
The Temperature Variability in Italy
Quite a uniform temperature trend was
observed in the different regions, with an
increment of 1 K per century all over Italy on
a yearly basis.
Also on a seasonal basis the situation is quite
uniform and no significant differences are
evident, either for the different regions or for
the different seasons.
Adapted from Brunetti et al. 2006
15
The Precipitation Variability in Italy
Six Regions on Precipitation Basis
NW
NEN
NES
CE
SE
SO
Adapted from Brunetti et al. 2006
16
The Precipitation Variability in Italy
Yearly series
Winter series
Spring series
Summer series
Precipitation trend analysis showed
a decreasing tendency. But the
decreases are very low and rarely
significant. Considering the average
all over Italy, there is a 5% decrease
per century in the annual
precipitation amount, mainly due to
the spring season (−9% per
century)
Autumn series
Adapted from Brunetti et al. 2006
17
What is changing in this century?
„
„
„
Increase of global mean temperature: from 2 to
6° C and consequently increase of soil
evaporation
Increase of emission and concentration of CO2
About the rainfall:
„ Increase or decreasing annual rainfall.
„ Increase rainfall intensity.
„ Changing of rainfall distribution.
18
Average temperature change (C, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990),
Multi Global Model Ensemble, A1B scenario
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
from Giorgi and Lionello, submitted
19
Precipitation change (%, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990),
MGME ensemble average, A1B scenario
DJF
MAM
The Authors conclude, for the end of the century,
forecasting:
1) a reduction of summer precipitations in Southern Italy
2) little changes for the Northern Italy with a little increase
for the winter rains
JJA
SON
Concerning the temperature, they forecast an increase quite
uniform among the regions.
from Giorgi and Lionello, submitted
20
How the climate change could impact the
agriculture activity?
[ CO2]
Current levels of CO2 limit CO2 assimilation
in C3 crops, and increasing CO2
concentrations up to about 800–1000 ppm
stimulate photosynthesis
In non-limiting conditions a yield
stimulation for C3 crops with a doubling
of CO2 has been estimated at 30%
Under more realistic conditions the
estimates were lower : 12% for
grasses, 10-15% of grain yield for
wheat and rice.
Yield stimulation in C4 crops is much
lower.
21
Effect of [CO2] on wheat wield relative to the yield at 350
ppm of [CO2] for various methods of controlling CO2
J. Amtor. 2001. Effects of atmosferic CO2 concentration on wheat yield: review
of results from experiments using various approaches to control Co2 concetration.
Field Crops Research, 73, 1-34
22
How the climate change could impact the
agriculture activity?
For determinate erbaceous crops
Shorten crop cycle
Temperature increase
For indeterminate erbaceous crops
Temperature increase
Increase of growth
period
Decrease of Yield
Increase of
Yield (provided
an increase of
water
availability)
For tree crops
Temperature increase
Expansion of suitable area for plant
requiring relatively high temperatures
(Grapevine, Olive) but with high yield
variability
after: Bindi M. and Howden M. 2004. Challenges and opportunities for cropping systems in a changing
23
th
climate 4 International Crop Science Congress, Australia.
Jürg Fuhrer. 2003. Agroecosystem responses to combinations of elevated
CO2, ozone, and global climate change. Agriculture, cosystems and
Environment 97 (2003) 1–20
24
Temperature and crop water requirement
The Penman–Monteith equation predict that potential
evaporation increases by about 2–3% for each 1°C raise in
temperature (Lockwood, 1999)
Sites which are already at the limit with respect to water supply
under current conditions are likely to be most sensitive to
climate change, leading to an increase in the need for
irrigation in dry areas, while more humid areas may be less
affected (e.g. Brumbelow and Georgakakos, 2001)
25
Duration to maturity of wheat
from Maracchi, 2003
26
scenario A2
scenario B2
113.19 ± 8.95
160
109.46±
6.39
107.76 ± 4.44
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095
Resa
Yield
70
6
60
4
50
47.7 ± 5.59
From flowering to maturity
scenario B2
33.7 ± 2.1
scenario A2
32.2 ± 2.59
2098
2095
2092
2089
20
2086
30
2083
2071
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
0
Irrigation scheduling
AW = 80 % TAW
40
2080
giorni
2
2074
t/ha
8
Mais a Rutigliano Bari)
scenario A2
4.17 ± 0.9
scenario B2
4.22 ± 0.75
6.9 ± 0.99
10
2077
giorni
durata
del
ciclo
Total
cycle
duration
10
courtesy Marcello Mastorilli
0
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
2074 2079 2084 2089 2094 2099
27
Cropping systems evolution in a climate
change context
„
„
„
„
„
„
Crop substitution
Changes in sowing date, sowing depth, and cultivar
choice
Adjusting of fertilizer applications and pesticide
treatments
Conservative tillage for reducing soil evaporation and
runoff and increasing water infiltration
Increasing of water requirements
Increasing of competition for water resources with
industrial and urban sectors
28
Variations for the irrigation practice in Italy
„
„
„
„
„
„
Larger development and recourse of irrigation
Larger development of localized methods (microsprinkler and
drip irrigation)
Increase of supplemental irrigation for normally rainfed crop,
like winter wheat or sugar beet with autumn sowing
To reserve the water for more profitable crops
Increasing of private wells and overuse of groundwater
Adjusting the water price and tariffication moving
„ from a payment per crop or per hectare
„ to “AT DEMAND” payment per cubic meters of water
29
Irrigation and WUE
In this context, the most important challenge for the
irrigated agriculture will be to save water and to increase
the Water Use Efficiency (Yield / (Irrigation +
Rainfall)) at every scale:
FIELD
FARM
IRRIGATION BASIN or CATCHMENT
REGION
30
The irrigation scheduling: time of irrigation
¾
Soil Water Balance
¾
Monitoring the soil water status
Soil water content (TDR or FDR)
Soil water potential (tensiometers)
¾
Monitoring the plant water status
Pre-down leaf water potential
Crop water
requirements and
sensitivity to
water stress
31
The irrigation scheduling: volume of irrigation
Knowledge of root apparatus (depth
and shape)
0.40
0.30
-3
¾
3
Knowledge of soil properties
(retention function or field capacity
and wilting point)
(m m )
¾
0.20
c
0.10
0.00
0.1
1
10
100
h (- cm)
1000
10000
32
Saving water and increasing of WUE (1)
To reduce soil Evaporation Losses:
Plastic or vegetative mulching before and during the
first stages of cultivation
More frequent irrigations
Optimization of tillage for increase the water storage at
sowing time
Better weed control
Reduction of runoff to increase the infiltration
33
Saving water and increasing of WUE (2)
For drip irrigation, optimal
definition of:
time and irrigation volume
emitter density
Emitter discarge
To minimize: soil evaporation and
deep percolation, solute leaching
and crop water stress
34
Deficit Irrigation Scheduling (3)
The aim is to reduce the
irrigation volume considering
the different water stress
sensitivity as a function of
phenological stages
SAVING THE YIELD
It needs to know the level of transpiration deficit without
significant reduction in crop yields. It means to increase
the WUE of a crop by eliminating irrigations that have
little impact on yield.
35
Partial root zone drying (4)
To control the amount of water available by maximizing the
production of root-derived chemical signals that reduce canopy
transpiration.
For grapevine and other tree crops, methodologies were
developed. They consist of switching the wet and dry sectors of
the rootzone on a regular basis in order to dry part of the root
system while keeping the remainder well watered.
Adapted from “Regulated deficit irrigation and partial rootzone drying as irrigation management techniques for
grapevines” M.G. McCarthy. In Deficit Irrigation Practices. FAO WATER REPORTS. N. 22.
36
Using of low-quality water resource (5)
To remove salts
from soil
Leaching practice
(before or during the
cultivation)
Drainage system
To reduce the
amount of salts on
the soil
To mitigate the
negative effects of
salinity
Crop Rotation
Crop/variety choice
Using waters at
different salinity
(alternating or
blending)
Irrigation method
choice (drip
irrigation)
Irrigation scheduling
(more frequent irrigations)
37
Optimize the water use at basin scale (5)
By integrating available tools as:
Distributed simulation models
Remote Sensing Informations
GIS approach
38
Thanks for your attention
39