INFORMATION ON
ECONOMIC TRENDS
221
Year XXII • February 2016
INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC TRENDS 221
PUBLISHER
Croatian National Bank
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Trg hrvatskih velikana 3, 10002 Zagreb
Phone: +385 1 45 64 555
Contact phone: +385 1 45 65 006
Fax: +385 1 45 64 687
www.hnb.hr
Release dates are disseminated on the advance release calendar posted for Croatia on the IMF’s DSBB (http://dsbb.imf.org).
Those using data from this publication are requested to cite the source.
Any additional corrections that might be required will be made in the website version.
ISSN 1334-0050 (online)
Information on
economic trends 221
Zagreb, February 2016
General information on Croatia
Economic indicators
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
56,594
56,594
56,594
56,594
56,594
56,594
56,594
56,594
56,594
56,594
4.442
4.440
4.436
4.434
4.429
4.418
4.280
4.268
4.256
4.238
GDP (million HRK, current prices)a
270,191
294,437
322,310
347,685
330,966
328,041
332,587
330,456
329,571
328,431
GDP (million EUR, current prices)
36,512
40,208
43,935
48,135
45,093
45,022
44,737
43,959
43,516
43,045
8,220
9,056
9,904
10,856
10,181
10,191
10,453
10,300
10,225
10,157
GDP – real year-on-year rate of growth
(in %)
4.2
4.8
5.2
2.1
–7.4
–1.7
–0.3
–2.2
–1.1
–0.4
Average year-on-year CPI inflation rate
3.3
3.2
2.9
6.1
2.4
1.1
2.3
3.4
2.2
–0.2
Current account balance (million EUR)
–1,892
–2,615
–3,139
–4,228
–2,300
–488
–316
–21
443
364
Current account balance (as % of GDP)
–5.2
–6.5
–7.1
–8.8
–5.1
–1.1
–0.7
0.0
1.0
0.8
Exports of goods and services
(as % of GDP)
39.4
39.7
39.0
38.5
34.5
37.8
40.5
41.7
43.1
46.5
Imports of goods and services
(as % of GDP)
45.5
46.5
46.3
46.5
38.2
38.1
40.9
41.2
42.7
44.5
25,990
29,725
33,721
40,590
45,600
46,908
46,397
45,297
45,958
46,664
71.2
73.9
76.8
84.3
101.1
104.2
103.7
103.0
105.6
108.4
180.6
186.1
196.6
219.1
292.7
275.8
256.2
247.3
244.9
233.0
27.5
41.3
39.5
33.2
52.0
48.5
39.5
42.6
39.9
43.1
7,438
8,725
9,307
9,121
10,376
10,660
11,195
11,236
12,908
12,688
5.4
5.6
5.5
4.9
7.2
7.5
7.3
7.5
8.3
8.0
Exchange rate on 31 December
(HRK : 1 EUR)
7.3756
7.3451
7.3251
7.3244
7.3062
7.3852
7.5304
7.5456
7.6376
7.6615
Exchange rate on 31 December
(HRK : 1 USD)
6.2336
5.5784
4.9855
5.1555
5.0893
5.5683
5.8199
5.7268
5.5490
6.3021
Average exchange rate (HRK : 1 EUR)
7.4000
7.3228
7.3360
7.2232
7.3396
7.2862
7.4342
7.5173
7.5735
7.6300
Average exchange rate (HRK : 1 USD)
5.9500
5.8392
5.3660
4.9344
5.2804
5.5000
5.3435
5.8509
5.7059
5.7493
Consolidated general government net
lending (+)/borrowing (–) (million HRK)d
–9,878.2
–9,514.7
–7,732.7
–9,467.7
–19,103
–19,353
–25,869
–17,658
–17,651
–18,395
Consolidated general government net
lending (+)/borrowing (–) (as % of GDP)
–3.7
–3.2
–2.4
–2.7
–5.8
–5.9
–7.8
–5.3
–5.4
–5.6
General government debt (as % of
GDP)d
40.7
38.3
37.1
38.9
48.0
57.0
63.7
69.2
80.8
85.1
Unemployment rate (ILO, persons
above 15 years of age)e
12.7
11.2
9.9
8.5
9.2
11.6
13.7
15.9
17.3
17.3
Employment rate (ILO, persons above
15 years of age)e
43.3
43.6
47.6
48.6
48.2
46.5
44.8
43.2
42.1
43.3
Area (square km)
Population (million)
GDP per capita (in EUR)
b
External debt (million EUR, end of
year)b
External debt (as % of GDP)
External debt (as % of exports of
goods and services)
External debt service (as % of exports
of goods and services)c
Gross international reserves (million
EUR, end of year)
Gross international reserves (in terms
of months of imports of goods and
services, end of year)
National currency: kuna (HRK)
he GDP data are presented according to the ESA 2010 methodology, while 2014 values are preliminary and were obtained on the basis of the preliminary annual accounts.
T
Balance of payments and external debt data are compiled in accordance with the methodology prescribed by the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International
Investment Position Manual (BPM6) and the new sector classification of institutional units in line with ESA 2010. Balance of payments and external debt data are based on the most
recent available balance of payments data up to the third quarter of 2015 and data on the gross external debt position as at the end of October 2015.
c
Includes principal payments on bonds, long-term trade credits and long-term loans (excluding liabilities to affiliated enterprises), as well as total interest payments net of interest
payments on direct investment.
d
Fiscal data is shown according to the ESA 2010 methodology.
e
Data for the 2007–2013 period are revised and therefore no longer comparable to data for the 2000–2006 period.
Sources: CBS, MoF and CNB.
a
b
Contents
General information on Croatia........................................................................................................................................... iv
Information on economic trends................................................................................................................ 1
Summary............................................................................................................................................................................. 3
Annex 1 Introduction of data on transactions in monetary developments analysis............................................................. 5
Abbreviations and symbols................................................................................................................................................ 19
Information on
economic trends
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221
3
Summary
Following rapid acceleration in economic activity recovery in the third quarter, the end of the previous year saw
a relatively fast growth in industrial production and retail trade and a halt to the fall in construction activity. Such
economic developments had a favourable impact on the labour market, further increasing the number of employed
persons and decreasing the number of the unemployed. The annual rate of change in consumer prices slowed down
in December and stood at –0.6%, with the contribution of energy prices to inflation standing at –0.9 percentage point.
The monetary policy of the CNB at the end of 2015 and in early 2016 continued to be expansive, with additional
easing of the reserve requirement instrument. The easing was seen in the abandonment of the requirement to
allocate the foreign exchange component of the reserve requirement with the CNB, now enabling the banks flexibility
in the management of these funds by keeping them in liquid foreign currency claims. Monetary developments
were again characterised by corporate and household deleveraging and December also saw the beginning of the
conversion of loans in Swiss francs, causing the seasonal fall in net foreign assets in the fourth quarter of 2015 to
be less pronounced. The banks had anticipated the impact of write-offs of parts of the loans in Swiss francs on
their currency position by increasing their foreign assets and deleveraging abroad. As regards public finances, the
first nine months were characterised by increased revenues and a simultaneous stagnation in general government
expenditures, resulting in a considerable fall in the deficit on an annual level.
After considerable acceleration in economic activity in the
third quarter, the available indicators on a monthly level point
to further relatively favourable developments in the fourth quarter.1 Industrial production thus rose by 2.7% in the last quarter
of 2015 from the previous three quarters (Figure 3).2 An analysis by main industrial groupings, showed growth in all categories, but the biggest contribution to total growth was made by
increased production of intermediary and capital goods. As regards retail trade, the growth in real turnover noticeable from
early 2014 accelerated in October and November. This resulted
in a high growth rate of 1.3% compared to the previous three
months’ average (Figure 9), which is also the highest reported
quarterly increase since mid-2013. Favourable developments
were also observed in tourism, in which the number of tourist
nights in October and November rose 4.7% from the same period of the previous year. In October and November, construction activity did not move from the previous three months’ average, (0.00%) overall, with construction works on buildings
rising, while other civil engineering works continued to decline
(Figures 7 and 8). The seasonally adjusted data on business and
consumer expectations point to a further upward trend, which
means that favourable economic conditions might continue into
early 2016 (Figures 10 and 11).
As regards foreign trade in goods, according to CBS data,
exports rose while imports declined slightly from the third quarter average. After falling in the previous quarter, goods exports
rose by 3.2% (Figure 13) and were distributed among a number
of SITC divisions. Exports excluding ships and oil rose considerably (10.5%), particularly the exports of capital goods (especially electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances and power generating machinery and equipment), oil seeds and fruits,
wearing apparel and manufactures of metals. At the same time,
the fall in exports of other transport equipment (mostly ships)
had an unfavourable impact on developments in total exports,
following considerable deliveries in September. A small fall in
total goods imports in October (0.2%) is the result of a decline
in the imports of ships previously exported for finishing pur­
poses and oil and refined petroleum products. If these categories
are excluded, imports rose by 4.4% (Figure 14). This was due to
1 A model estimate of economic growth for the last quarter of 2015 points to
stagnation in real GDP from the previous quarter, due to a very high base
in the third quarter when growth was greatly driven by exports of tourist
services.
2 However, it should be noted that industrial production fell on a monthly
level in November and December.
almost equal increases in the imports of capital equipment and
road vehicles (Figure 15) and other goods. As regards capital
equipment, the imports of electrical equipment, apparatus and
appliances and telecommunications, sound recording and reproduction apparatus rose the most, and with respect to other
goods, the imports of scientific and control instruments, coal,
coke and briquettes rose the most.
In the fourth quarter of 2015, the labour market was marked
by further favourable developments. The number of employed
persons (individuals insured with the CPIA) rose from the previous quarter, mostly as a result of an increase in employment
in service activities in the public and the private sectors (Figure
17). As the outflows from the CES register in the last quarter of
2015 continued to be larger than the inflows into the register,
the number of unemployed persons continued to decline. Net
outflows due to employment and other business factors continued to be the main reason for this. As a result, the registered
unemployment rate fell to 17.2% in the fourth quarter, continuing its downward trend. By contrast, according to Eurostat estimates, the ILO unemployment rate stood at 16.6% in October
and November, rising slightly from the previous quarter (Figure 18). Observed at the entire 2015 level, after falling steadily
for six years, employment rose in 2015, while the administrative
unemployment rate fell by 2 percentage points (from 19.7% in
2014 to 17.7%). Wages continued to rise both in nominal and
real terms in the last quarter, but at a slower rate than in the first
three quarters of 2015 (Figure 19).
Consumer prices in December fell by 0.6% from the previous month (Table 1), mostly driven by the seasonal decline in
the prices of clothing and footwear, food prices and prices of
petroleum products as a result of the drop in the prices of crude
oil in the world market. The annual fall in the total index of consumer prices slowed down from –0.9% in November to –0.6%
in December, mostly as a result of developments in the prices
of energy on an annual level. The negative contribution of energy prices to the annual inflation rate fell from –1.1 percentage point in November to –0.9 percentage point in December,
despite a further fall in the prices of refined petroleum products.
This is the result of the effect of the base period, i. e. a more
pronounced decrease in the prices of refined petroleum products in December 2014 (Figure 22). The annual rate of core
inflation stood at 0.0% in December, in contrast with –0.3% in
November 2015, due to the developments in the prices of clothing whose annual growth rose from 1.3% in November to 5.1%
in December, due to the fact that the seasonal fall in these prices
4
was less pronounced than in the same period of the previous
year. Overall, since mid-2015 there has been a trend of declining inflation, largely the result of the spillover of lower crude
oil prices on domestic prices. This development in energy prices
eased the effect of the strengthening of domestic demand and
weakening of the euro (and consequently, the kuna) against major global currencies in 2015 on inflation growth.
The exchange rate of the kuna against the euro was exposed
to small depreciation pressures in mid-January 2016, following
a period in which it was generally stable in December 2015 and
in early January. The nominal exchange rate of the kuna against
the euro did not change significantly until the end of the month,
standing at EUR/HRK 7.66 at the end of January (Figure 24),
an increase of 0.3% from end-December. By contrast, in January, the kuna appreciated slightly against most other currencies of the main foreign trade partners, particularly against the
yuan renminbi, the Polish zloty and pound sterling due to the
strengthening of the euro against those currencies in the global
foreign exchange market. The weakening of the kuna against the
euro was not sufficient to offset the effect of the appreciation of
the kuna against other currencies, so the index of the nominal
effective exchange rate of the kuna fell by 0.3% at the end of
January from the end of December (Figure 25).
The continued expansive monetary policy of the ECB, coupled with high banking system liquidity in the euro area, resulted in January 2016 in a further fall in euro benchmark interest
rates. The six-month EURIBOR amounted to –0.08% at the
end of January, while the overnight interest rate EONIA stood at
–0.24% (Figure 27). Risk premiums for most European emerging market economies have not changed much and the risk premium for Croatia at the end of January 2016 was 6 b. p. lower
than at the end of December 2015 and stood at 293 b. p., but still
remained much higher than in comparable countries (Figure 28).
However, the average costs of financing of the parent banks of
the biggest domestic banks rose slightly in January (Figure 29).
The trend of a very slow fall in lending and deposit interest rates of banks continued in October and November 2015,
with deposit interest rates falling slightly faster than lending interest rates (Figure 32). Such developments in interest rates are
noticeable, irrespective of the segment and currency structure
(Figures 33 and 34). In such circumstances, the overall interest
rate spread of balances rose slightly and stood at 4.68 percentage points at the end of December (Figure 35).
Monetary developments in the fourth quarter of 2015 were
marked by a small fall in net foreign assets (NFA), which, coupled with a slight increase in net domestic assets (NDA), led to a
stagnation in the total liquid assets (M4) of the monetary system.
The seasonal fall in net foreign assets was smaller than usual due
to the effect of the conversion of loans in Swiss francs. That is,
the net foreign assets of banks rose as a result of banks’ deleveraging with respect to their parent banks and a simultaneous
increase in foreign assets due to their currency position adjustment. NFA of the CNB declined during the same period due to
the net sale of foreign currency, most notably through a foreign
exchange intervention that eased depreciation pressures generated by the process of adjustment of the currency positions of
banks and withdrawal of government foreign currency deposits.
During the last twelve months, the increase in net foreign assets
exceeded the decline in net domestic assets (NDA) of the monetary system (Figure 36) pushing up total liquid assets (M4).
Despite stagnation of M4 in the fourth quarter, the growth in
the broadest monetary aggregate accelerated on an annual level
and stood at 5.0% towards the end of 2015 (Figure 44).
The placements of credit institutions to domestic sectors (not
including the government) declined moderately during the last
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221
quarter of 2015 (Figure 38). This was largely due to deleveraging by non-financial corporations (Figure 39) and households
(Figure 40). The fall in placements to corporations eased off
on an annual level and towards the end of December stood at
–2.9% (calculated on the basis of transactions), with over one
half of the fall being accounted for by state-owned enter­prises.
As regards household loans, December was marked by the beginning of the process of conversion and partial write-off of
loans in Swiss francs. In the last month of 2015, HRK 2.1bn
was converted into euro loans and HRK 1.0bn was written off.
With the years-long process of household deleveraging continuing, the annual rate of change in placements to this sector
reached its lowest level towards the end of 2015 when it stood at
–1.7%. The annual rate of change in total placements of credit
institutions (except the government) stood at –2.2% towards the
end of December 2015.
The monetary policy of the CNB at the end of 2015 and in
early 2016 continued to be expansive, with additional easing of
the reserve requirement instrument. The CNB abolished the obligation for banks to allocate the foreign currency component
of reserve requirement, enabling them from mid-January 2016
to meet the entire amount of foreign currency requirements by
average daily balances of liquid claims. In this way, the banks
will be more flexible in managing the amount of approximately
EUR 0.5bn, i. e. the amount of the allocated foreign currency
component of reserve requirements towards the end of 2015. In
November and December 2015, the interest rates on the money
market remained low. The weighted interest rate on overnight interbank loans stood at 0.49% towards the end of 2015 (Figure
30). Concurrently, yields on all T-bills remained low (Figure 31).
Net usable reserves rose by EUR 0.5bn (4.4%) in 2015 and
stood at EUR 11.2bn at the end of the year. CNB transactions
on the domestic foreign exchange market contributed EUR
168m to the growth in net usable reserves, while the remaining part of growth can be ascribed to foreign exchange gains
(strengthening of the American dollar) and earnings generated
on investment (EUR 73m). Gross international reserves (which
also include repo agreements and other foreign currency liabilities, foreign currency reserves and government foreign currency
deposits) rose by EUR 1.0bn in 2015 (8.0%) and stood at EUR
13.7bn at the end of December. This growth reflects the investment of a part of reserves in repo agreements, while the amount
of government foreign currency deposits with the CNB declined.
After a pronounced fall in the second and the third quarter
(by a total of EUR 2.9bn), the net external debt of the domestic sectors shrank further in October and November 2015 by
EUR 0.6bn (Figure 54)3. This was to a large extent due to an
improvement in the net external debt position based on direct
investments, particularly to the deleveraging of one private nonmonetary financial corporation with respect to its owner. Credit
institutions also contributed to the fall in net debt by further reducing their foreign liabilities (particularly in October), after the
usual summer deleveraging and, to a lesser extent, by increasing
their foreign assets. By contrast, the net external debt of other
domestic sectors rose as a result of an increase in liabilities, particularly those of non-financial corporations, to non-affiliated
creditors and a slightly smaller decline in foreign assets. In addition, the net foreign position of the central bank worsened as a
3 The growth in claims and decrease in foreign liabilities were almost equal.
The increase in claims of monetary institutions outdid the impact of the fall
in assets of other domestic sectors. At the same time, gross external debt
declined because there was a perceptible deleveraging on the part of credit
institutions and, pursuant to direct debt investments, it outdid the rise in
liabilities of the central bank (which was more pronounced than the rise in
claims) and of other domestic sectors (Figure 55).
5
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221
result of the unfavourable effect of the fall in government foreign
currency deposits with the CNB and the foreign exchange intervention of the CNB4.
The increase in revenue, coupled with a simultaneous stagnation in expenditures of the consolidated general government
on an annual level (methodology ESA 2010) marked the first
three quarters of 2015 (Table 2). The general government deficit fell by HRK 4.5bn in the first nine months of the previous
year from the same period of 2014 (down from HRK 13.5bn
to HRK 9.0bn). Favourable developments in revenues were due
primarily to indirect taxes and contributions but positive developments were also seen in most other items. The growth of revenue in the third quarter was a little slower than in the first half of
the year, which may partly be attributed to the waning of one-off
effects associated with VAT and social contributions. By contrast, the increase in expenditures for intermediary consumption
and interest observed in the first nine months of the year was
largely offset by the fall in expenditures for social contributions.
The available MoF data for the last quarter of the last year suggest that on the entire 2015 level, the general government deficit could be a little smaller than estimated in December (–5.0%
of GDP). General government debt stood at HRK 285.2bn or
85.3% of the estimated GDP at the end of November 2015. The
almost unchanged share of the debt in GDP from the end of
2014 is mainly the result of partial financing of the deficit by
deposits associated with the borrowing in the previous year, and
the growth in the estimated nominal GDP.
Annex 1 Introduction of data on transactions in monetary developments
analysis
The statistical data in the consolidated balance sheet of monetary financial institutions are shown on a gross basis5, to enable
better insight into the dynamics of placements of credit institutions over time. However, there are other factors too, which distort information on the actual developments in placements. The
CNB is trying to identify and assess these factors and analyse
credit activity without their impact.
In previous monthly information on economic developments,
the dynamics of credit aggregates was analysed after excluding
the effects of changes in the exchange rate of the kuna on the
balance of aggregates and after excluding the so-called one-off
effects, the exclusion of which from the actual change in aggregates was economically warranted. For instance, in addition to
the exclusion of the exchange rate, in previous publications, the
CNB also analysed the dynamics of placements after excluding
the effect of a one-off fall in gross placements caused by the assumption of the debt of shipyards by the Ministry of Finance,
the transfer of non-performing placements of one bank to a
Table 1 Example of transaction calculation
Balance – previous
month
Transactions
1
2=6–1–3–4–5
3
4
5
6
10,000
700
200
–100
200
11,000
Price adjustments
Write-offs
Exchange rate
adjustments
Balance – current
month
Source: CNB.
2014
2
billion HRK
billion HRK
Figure A Comparison of the analysis of placements according to the old and new methodology
1
0
2015
4
2
0
–1
–2
–2
–4
–3
–6
–4
–8
–5
–6
2014 (old)
2014 (new)
Effective flow (old)
Transactions (new)
–10
Price adjustment
2015 (old)
Write-offs
2015 (new)
Exchange rate adjustment
Source: CNB.
4 The banks were sold EUR 268.3m by means of a foreign exchange intervention, however, as foreign exchange transactions are settled two working days after the
date of their execution, the transaction made an impact on the balance of reserves in early October.
5 Gross basis means that loans shown on the assets side are not reduced by the relevant value adjustments and that loan value adjustments are shown under liabilities as a part of capital accounts.
6
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221
Figure D Annual rates of change in corporate placements
Figure B Structure of write-off of claims
%
8
WRITE-OFFS
6
4
2
0
–2
–4
SALES
–6
2011
2012
2013
Annual rate of change – old
Amount of value adjustments of sold placements
2014
2015
Annual rate of change – new
Source: CNB.
Source: CNB.
Figure C Annual rates of change in total placements
Figure E Annual rates of change in household placements
%
household placements
4
%
0
3
2
–1
1
0
–2
–1
–2
–3
–3
–4
2011
2012
Annual rate of change – old
2013
2014
2015
–4
Annual rate of change – new
Source: CNB.
non-financial corporation, the bankruptcy of Centar banka and
methodological changes in fee accounting. After these corrections were made, the so called effective flow and the effective
rate of change in placements were calculated.
Starting from Bulletin No. 221, the dynamics of credit aggregates will be analysed in accordance with the new methodology, which is based on the assessment of transactions. An example of transaction assessment is shown in Table 1. The first and
the last column show balances of the credit aggregate at the end
of the previous and current month. In between are the columns
showing the basis for changes in balances during the month.
The sum of the columns “Transactions”, “Price adjustments”,
“Write-offs” and “Exchange rate adjustments” makes up the total change between the balance at the end of the current and the
previous month.
There are several methodological and key reasons why it is
appropriate at just this moment for the CNB to move to the
analysis of the dynamics of developments in credit aggregates
based on transactions:
• The CNB has been publishing data on transactions since the
beginning of 2015. With the introduction of the statistical
2011
2012
Annual rate of change – old
2013
2014
2015
Annual rate of change – new
Source: CNB.
standard ESA 2010, transactions are reported in tables D1:
Consolidated balance sheet of other monetary financial institutions and D5: Distribution of loans of other monetary
financial institutions by institutional sectors. The data are published for the period starting from January 20116. (“Annex
1 Implementation of the ESA 2010 standard and related improvements in monetary statistics”, Bulletin No. 211).
• The exclusion of the impact of price changes on aggregate
dynamics, which is particularly relevant for the portfolio of
securities shown in monetary statistics on a fair value basis.
• A considerable increase in the amount of write-offs of placements in the previous years, particularly in 2015. Placement
write-off means the removal of an irrecoverable placement
from a bank’s balance sheet, accompanied by a simultaneous
removal of the gross value of the claim and the accompanying
value adjustment.
• A large loan write-off associated with the conversion of loans
6 Since data on transactions have only been available since January 2011, data
on changes in credit aggregates for the previous periods do not change with
the transfer to the new methodology.
7
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221
in Swiss francs. The effect of the write-off of loans in Swiss
francs will be fully excluded from the transactions since the
entire reduction in the principal of the gross value of placements which are converted from Swiss francs into the euro
will be recorded as under the heading “Write-off”.
The change in placements calculated on the basis of transactions indicates that the fall in placements in the last two years
was smaller than estimated on the basis of the old methodology and that this was particularly true in 2015 (Figure A). The
effect of the change in the exchange rate of the kuna is equal
under the old and the new approach. However, the fall in total
placements was overestimated as a result of the fact that writeoffs were not excluded from placements flow under the old approach7. It should be stressed that outflows also recorded the
sale of placements in the amount in which the sold placements
were covered by value adjustments. In the first nine months of
2015, the gross amount of sold claims stood at HRK 1.1bn, of
which 91% were covered by provisions. In this way, most of
the claims sold are shown under write-offs, while the remaining
part remains in the transactions (Figure B).
A comparison of the annual dynamics of developments
in placements according to the old and the new methodology
shown in the figures below shows that there are obvious differences, which increase over time. As is evident, the growth rates
over the past few years are more favourable according to transaction-based data and the difference is increasing over time exactly because of the rising amounts of claim write-offs.
In accordance with the new methodology, the relevant data
series in Figures 38, 39, 40, 44 and 47 were changed in the Information on economic developments. When the annual rates
of change show a change in the balance of monetary or credit
aggregates, the note given in the parenthesis “balance-based”
and the note given in the parenthesis “transaction-based” indicates that it is an annual rate of change calculated on the basis
of transaction data. Where no notes are given in the parenthesis
with the annual rate of change, the implication is that it is calculated on the basis of balance.
7 In 2015, write-offs stood at HRK 3.9bn, of which HRK 1.0bn is associated with the conversion of loans in Swiss francs in December.
8
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221
Figure 1 Quarterly gross domestic product
120
115
3
%
120
12
115
8
110
2
110
4
105
0
100
–4
95
–8
90
–12
105
1
0
–1
–2
100
95
90
–3
85
–4
–5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2008
Quarterly rate of change of GDP – left
Level of GDP – right
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Quarterly rate of change of seasonally adjusted index – left
Trend-cycle – right
Note: Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 is the estimate derived using the CNB’s
Monthly indicator of real economic activity, on the basis of data published until 29
January 2016.
Source: CBS data seasonally adjusted by the CNB.
Note: Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 refers to October and November.
Source: CBS data seasonally adjusted by the CNB.
Figure 2 GDP rate of change
Figure 5 Stock of industrial finished products
percentage points
contribution by components
12
12 %
8
8
4
4
0
0
%
15
90
–5
–12
–12
–10
–16
–16
2011
Imports of goods and services – left
Exports of goods and services – left
Changes in inventories – left
Gross domestic product – right
2012
2013
2014
2015
100
95
–8
2010
105
0
–8
2009
110
5
–4
2008
115
10
–4
–20
80
85
80
–15
75
–20
–20
Gross fixed capital formation – left
Government consumption – left
Household consumption – left
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
70
Quarterly rate of change of seasonally adjusted index – left
Trend-cycle – right
Note: The projection for 2015 refers to the official projection of the CNB from
December 2015.
Sources: CBS and CNB calculations.
Source: CBS data seasonally adjusted by the CNB.
Figure 3 Industrial production
Figure 6 Industrial production by main industrial groupings
120
4
115
2
0
2010 = 100
6
2010 = 100
%
seasonally adjusted indices
140
130
110
120
105
110
100
100
95
90
90
80
85
70
–2
–4
–6
–8
–10
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Quarterly rate of change of seasonally adjusted index – left
Trend-cycle – right
Source: CBS data seasonally adjusted by the CNB.
2008
2009
2010
Intermediate goods
Capital goods
2011
2012
2013
2014
Non-durable consumer goods
Durable consumer goods
Source: CBS data seasonally adjusted by the CNB.
2015
2010 = 100
%
4
2010 = 100
5
2010 = 100
Figure 4 Real turnover in industry
seasonally and calendar adjusted real values
9
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221
Figure 10 Business confidence indicators
Figure 7 Total volume of construction works
140
20
130
15
2010 = 100
%
standardised values, three-member moving averages
120
10
130
120
110
5
140
110
100
100
90
0
90
80
–5
–10
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
70
80
60
70
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Construction business confidence indicator
Retail trade business confidence indicator
Quarterly rate of change of seasonally adjusted index – left
Trend-cycle – right
2013
2014
2015
2016
Industry business confidence indicator
Long-run average = 100
Note: New weights have been applied to the series of business confidence indicators; as
of July 2014, the weights are based on total income instead of the number of employees.
The Business Confidence Survey has been carried out since May 2008.
Sources: Ipsos, CNB and EC data seasonally adjusted by the CNB.
Note: Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 refers to October and November.
Source: CBS data seasonally adjusted by the CNB.
Figure 8 Total volume of construction works by types
of constructions
Figure 11 Consumer confidence index
standardised values, three-member moving averages
2010 = 100
seasonally adjusted indices
120
150
130
110
110
100
90
90
70
80
50
30
70
2008
2009
2010
2011
Buildings
2012
2013
2014
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
Consumer confidence indicator (seasonally adjusted values)
Long-run average = 100
Civil engineering works
Source: CBS data seasonally adjusted by the CNB.
Sources: Ipsos, CNB and EC data seasonally adjusted by the CNB.
Figure 9 Real retail trade turnover
Figure 12 EU confidence indices
seasonally adjusted indices
4
120
115
2
2010 = 100
%
2015
10
120
0
100
–10
80
–20
60
–30
40
–40
20
110
0
105
–2
100
95
–4
90
–6
–8
85
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
80
–50
0
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Industrial confidence index – left
Consumer confidence index – left
Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) – right
Quarterly rate of change of seasonally adjusted index – left
Trend-cycle – right
Note: Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 refers to October and November.
Source: CBS data seasonally adjusted by the CNB.
2009
Source: Eurostat.
2015
2016
10
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221
Figure 16 Trade in goods balance
1.05
24
1.00
20
0.95
16
0.90
12
0.85
8
0.80
4
0.75
0
0.70
–4
0.65
–8
0.60
–12
0.55
–16
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0.3
0.0
–0.3
–0.6
–0.9
–20
–1.2
2008
Total exports (quarterly rate of change) – right
Exports excl. ships and oil (quarterly rate of change) – right
Trend-cycle (total exports) – left
Trend-cycle (exports excl. ships and oil) – left
1.8
10
1.7
6
1.6
2
1.5
–2
1.4
Capital goods
Other
2014
2015
Ships
Total
1.0
1560
0.5
1540
1480
–1.5
1.1
–14
–2.0
1.0
–18
2013
2014
2015
1500
–1.0
–10
2012
1520
0.0
1.2
2011
2013
–0.5
–6
1.3
–2.5
–22
1460
1440
1420
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1400
Public administration, education and human health activitiesa
Other
Construction
Industry
Total employment, seasonally adjusted – right
Trade
Total imports (quarterly rate of change) – right
Imports excl. ships and oil (quarterly rate of change) – right
Trend-cycle (total imports) – left
Trend-cycle (imports excl. ships and oil) – left
Estimated on the basis of O, P and Q activities according to NCA 2007.
Note: Around 20,000 insured persons were removed from the CPIA register due to
administrative reasons in October 2013.
Source: CPIA data seasonally adjusted by the CNB.
a
Note: Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 refer to October.
Source: CBS data seasonally adjusted by the CNB.
Figure 15 Imports of capital equipmenta and road
vehicles (c.i.f.)
Figure 18 Registered and ILO unemployment rates
seasonally adjusted data
0.36
45
0.30
30
0.24
15
0.18
0
0.12
–15
0.06
–30
0.00
–45
in %, seasonally adjusted
billion EUR
percentage points
14
in %, seasonally adjusted
billion EUR
18
1.9
2010
2012
Figure 17 Total employment and contribution to employment
growth by sector
1.9
2009
2011
Source: CBS.
Figure 14 Goods imports (c.i.f.)
2008
2010
Energy sources
Road vehicles
Note: Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 refer to October.
Source: CBS data seasonally adjusted by the CNB.
0.9
2009
%
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
6
Imports of road vehicles (quarterly rate of change) – right
Imports of capital equipment (quarterly rate of change) – right
Trend-cycle (imports of road vehicles) – left
Trend-cycle (imports of capital equipment) – left
Imports of machinery (SITC divisions 71 – 77).
Note: Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 refer to October.
Source: CBS data seasonally adjusted by the CNB.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
ILO unemployment ratea
Registered unemployment rate
a
Monthly ILO unemployment rate is Eurostat’s estimate.
Sources: CES and Eurostat data seasonally adjusted by the CNB.
a
2014
2015
in thousand
0.50
billion EUR
three-member moving averages of monthly data
in %, seasonally adjusted
billion EUR
Figure 13 Goods exports (f.o.b.)
11
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221
Figure 22 Crude oil prices (Brent)
3.0 %
2.5
8000
2.0
7500
6500
5500
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
750
120
650
100
1.0
90
550
0.5
80
450
0.0
70
350
60
–0.5
6000
850
130
110
1.5
7000
140
50
–1.0
40
–1.5
30
250
2008
Nominal gross wage (quarterly rate of change) – right
Real gross wage (quarterly rate of change) – right
Average nominal gross wage, original data – left
Average real gross wage, original data – left
2009
2010
2011
Brent (USD/barrel) – left
2012
2013
Sources: Bloomberg and CNB calculations.
Figure 20 Consumer price index and core inflation
Figure 23 HWWI index (excl. energy)
annualised month-on-month rate of changea
2010 = 100
16
12
2014
2015
150
Brent (HRK/barrel) – right
Source: CBS data seasonally adjusted by the CNB.
%
HRK/barrel
8500
USD/barrel
HRK
Figure 19 Average gross wages
140
130
120
8
110
4
100
90
0
80
–4
70
–8
60
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Consumer price index
2013
2014
2015
2008
2009
Core inflation
2010
2011
2012
HWWI index (USD)
The month-on-month rate of change is calculated based on the quarterly moving
average of seasonally adjusted consumer price indices.
Sources: CBS and CNB calculations.
2013
2014
2015
HWWI index (HRK)
a
Sources: HWWI and CNB calculations.
Table 1 Price indicators
Figure 21 Year-on-year inflation rates and components’
contribution to consumer price inflation
year-on-year and month-on-month rates of change
percentage points
Year-on-year
rates
10
11/2015
Month-onmonth rates
12/2015 12/2014 12/2015
Consumer price index and its components
8
6
4
2
Total index
–0.9
–0.6
–0.9
–0.6
Energy
–5.9
–5.0
–1.6
–0.6
Unprocessed food
0.2
–0.1
0.1
–0.3
Processed food (incl. alcoholic
drinks and tobacco)
0.6
0.5
–0.4
–0.5
Industrial non-food without energy
0.5
1.1
–2.1
–1.5
–0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
Core inflation
–0.3
0.0
–1.0
–0.7
Index of industrial producer prices on
the domestic market
–4.2
–4.4
–1.2
–1.4
Brent crude oil price (USD)
–43.4
–39.5
–20.5
–15.1
HWWI index (excl. energy)a
–24.5
–23.2
–2.7
–1.0
Services
0
Other price indicators
–2
2008
2009
2010
2011
Energy
Processed food
Services
Consumer price index (%)
2012
2013
2014
2015
Unprocessed food
Industrial non-food without energy
Core inflation (%)a
Core inflation does not include agricultural product prices and administrative prices.
Sources: CBS and CNB calculations.
a
he index is calculated on the basis of raw materials prices expressed in US dollars.
T
Sources: CBS, Bloomberg and HWWI.
a
12
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221
CNB midpoint exchange rate
9.5
8.5
Figure 27 Interest rates on the euro and the average yield
spread on bonds of European emerging market countries
%
8.0
9.0
6
510
5
430
7.5
8.5
4
7.0
8.0
6.5
3
7.5
6.0
2
6.0
2009
2010
2011
EUR/HRK – left
2012
2013
2014
USD/HRK – right
2016
2015
110
0
4.5
2008
190
1
5.0
6.5
350
270
5.5
7.0
–1
4.0
30
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 2015
ECB benchmark rate – left
EONIA – left
6M EURIBOR – left
EMBI spreads for European emerging market countries – right
CHF/HRK – right
Figure 28 CDS spreads for 5-year government bonds of
selected countries
2015
700
600
400
300
200
100
0
Real (PPI) – right
Real (CPI) – left
2009
Note: Real effective exchange rate of the kuna deflated by producer prices includes
the Croatian index of industrial producer prices on the non-domestic market, which is
available from January 2010. Real effective exchange rate of the kuna deflated by unit
labour costs is the result of the interpolation of quarterly values. A fall in the index
denotes an effective appreciation of the kuna.
Source: CNB.
Figure 26 Contributionsa of individual currencies to the
monthly rate of change of the average index of the nominal
effective kuna exchange rate (INEER)
2.5
2.0
1.5
2010
2011
Croatia
Bulgaria
Slovak R.
2012
2013
Poland
Romania
Italy
2014
2015
Czech R.
Hungary
Germany
Note: Credit default swaps (CDS) spread is an annual premium that a CDS buyer pays
for protection against credit risk associated with an issuer of an instrument.
Source: Bloomberg.
Figure 29 CDS spreads for selected parent banks of
domestic banks
basis points
percentage points
800
500
2016
2014
75
2013
75
2012
80
2011
80
2010
85
2009
85
2008
90
2007
90
2006
95
2005
95
2004
100
2003
105
100
2002
110
105
2001
110
basis points
Figure 25 Nominal and real effective exchange rates
of the kuna
2010 = 100
Sources: ECB, Bloomberg and J. P. Morgan.
2001 = 100
Source: CNB.
Nominal – left
Real (ULC total economy) – left
Real (ULC manufacturing) – left
700
600
500
1.0
0.5
400
0.0
300
–0.5
200
–1.0
100
–1.5
–2.0
2008
2009
EUR
2010
USD
2011
CHF
2012
2013
2014
basis points
Figure 24 Daily nominal exchange rate – HRK vs. EUR, USD
and CHF
2015
Other currencies
Negative values denote contributions to the appreciation of the INEER.
Source: CNB.
2016
0
2009
2010
2011
Unicredit S.p.A.
Erste Group Bank
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.
INEER (%)
a
Source: Bloomberg.
2012
2013
2014
Société Générale
Raiffeisen Zentralbank
2015
13
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221
Figure 30 Average interest rate on the money market
Figure 33 Average interest rates on new kuna loans (excl.
revolving loans)
daily data, on annual basis
on annual basis
%
42
6.3
36
5.4
12
30
4.5
10
24
3.6
8
18
2.7
6
12
1.8
%
%
4
2
0.9
6
0
0.0
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
14
2015
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Short-term corporate loans non-indexed to f/c
Long-term corporate loans indexed to f/c
Short-term household loans non-indexed to f/c
Long-term household loans indexed to f/c
Interest rate on overnight loans in direct interbank trading until
end-2010 – left
Interest rate on overnight loans in direct interbank trading since the
beginning of 2011 – right
Source: CNB.
Source: CNB.
Figure 31 Interest rates on kuna and euro T-bills
Figure 34 Average interest rates on new time deposits
maturing in three months
on auction days
on annual basis
%
9
%
8
14
12
7
10
6
8
5
4
6
3
4
2
2
1
0
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
364-day – T-bill
91-day – T-bill
182-day – T-bill
728-day – T-bill
91-day – T-bill (EUR)
364-day – T-bill (EUR)
364-day – T-bill (EUR FX)
546/547-day – T-bill (EUR FX)
Source: CNB.
Source: CNB.
Figure 32 Average interest rates on loans (excl. revolving
loans) and deposits
Figure 35 Spread between interest rates on loans (excl.
revolving loans) and interest rates on deposits
on annual basis
%
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
2007
2007
2008
2009
2010
Loans – new
Deposits – newa
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Loans – balances
Deposits – balances
For time deposits, interest rates on newly received deposits are weighted by their
balances.
Source: CNB.
a
on annual basis
%
12
2015
Kuna corporate deposits non-indexed to f/c
Euro corporate deposits
Kuna household deposits non-indexed to f/c
Euro household deposits
2008
2009
2010
2011
Loans in kunaa – Deposits in kunaa
Loans in kunab – Deposits in f/c
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total – new
Total – balances
a
Non-indexed to f/c. b Indexed to f/c.
Note: Spread between average interest rates on loans and average interest rates on
deposits should be differentiated from net interest margin (the ratio of the difference
between interest income and interest expenses to total assets of credit institutions).
Source: CNB.
14
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221
Figure 36 Net foreign assets, net domestic assets and total
liquid assets (M4)
Figure 39 Placements to corporates
40
billion HRK
billion HRK
absolute change in the last 12 months
30
16 %
2
12
8
1
20
4
10
0
0
0
–4
–8
–1
–10
–12
–20
–2
–30
2008
2009
2010
2011
Net foreign assets
2012
2013
2014
Net domestic assets
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
–16
Transactions in corporate placements – left
Year-on-year rate of change (balance-based) – right
Year-on-year rate of change (transaction-based) – right
M4
Source: CNB.
Source: CNB.
Figure 37 Net domestic assets, structure
Figure 40 Placements to households
absolute change in the last 12 months
40
billion HRK
billion HRK
2014
30
20
1.6
20 %
1.2
15
0.8
10
0.4
5
0.0
0
–0.4
–5
10
0
–10
–20
–0.8
–30
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Net placements to the government
Placements
Other net assets
Net domestic assets
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Transactions in household placements – left
Year-on-year rate of change (balance-based) – right
Year-on-year rate of change (transaction-based) – right
Source: CNB.
Figure 38 Placements
Figure 41 Structure of credit institution placements
4
20 %
3
15
2
10
250
1
5
200
0
0
–1
–5
–2
–10
–3
–15
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
billion HRK
billion HRK
Source: CNB.
2008
350
300
150
100
50
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Placements to other sectors
Placements to the central government
Placements to households
Placements to corporates
Transactions in total placements – left
Year-on-year rate of change (balance-based) – right
Year-on-year rate of change (transaction-based) – right
Source: CNB.
–10
Source: CNB.
2014
2015
15
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221
100
Figure 45 Structure of M4 monetary aggregate
80 %
billion HRK
billion HRK
Figure 42 Credit institution and MMF placements to the
central government
300
275
90
70
80
60
70
50
60
40
50
30
150
40
20
125
30
10
20
0
10
–10
0
–20
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
250
225
200
175
100
75
50
25
0
2015
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Figure 43 Money (M1)
Figure 46 Kuna savings and time deposits
75
20 %
70
16
65
12
billion HRK
Source: CNB.
billion HRK
Source: CNB.
8
55
4
50
0
45
–4
40
35
–8
30
–12
–16
25
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
60 %
45
45
40
30
35
15
30
0
25
–15
20
–30
2008
2015
2009
2010
2011
2012
Figure 47 Foreign currency deposits
300
21
290
18
280
15
270
12
260
9
250
6
240
3
230
0
220
–3
210
–6
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
%
billion HRK
Figure 44 Total liquid assets (M4)
billion HRK
Source: CNB.
2010
2014
2015
180
20 %
160
15
140
5
120
10
100
0
80
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Year-on-year rate of change (balance-based) – right
Year-on-year rate of change (transaction-based) – right
Foreign currency deposits (balance) – left
Year-on-year rate of change (balance-based) – right
Year-on-year rate of change (transaction-based) – right
M4 (balance) – left
Source: CNB.
2013
Year-on-year rate of change – right
Kuna deposits (balance) – left
Source: CNB.
2009
2015
50
Year-on-year rate of change – right
M1 (balance) – left
2008
2014
M1
Kuna deposits
Foreign currency deposits
Bonds, money market instruments and MMFs shares/units
Year-on-year rate of change – right
Placements to the central government (balance) – left
60
2013
Source: CNB.
2015
–5
16
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221
9
16
8
14
7
12
6
10
5
8
4
6
3
4
2
2
1
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
6
4
4
2
2
0
–2
0
–4
–2
–6
–4
0
2015
6
–6
–8
–10
2008
Liquidity surplus (incl. overnight deposits with the CNB) – right
Overnight interbank interest rate – left
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: CNB.
Figure 49 Spot transactions in the foreign exchange market
(net turnover)
Figure 52 Financial account flows
2.0
billion EUR
billion EUR
2009
Secondary income – left
Services – left
Goods – left
Primary income – left
Current account (four-quarter moving average) – right
Note: Liquidity surplus is the difference between the balance in bank settlement
accounts with the CNB and the amount that banks are required to hold in their
accounts after the calculation of reserve requirements.
Source: CNB.
1.5
1.0
6
4
4
3
2
2
0.5
0
1
–2
0
–4
–1.0
–1
–6
–1.5
–2
–2.0
–3
0.0
–0.5
–2.5
2008
2009
2010
2011
Bank transactions with legal persons
Bank transactions with foreign banks
Total bank transactions
2012
2013
2014
as % of GDP
10
18
–8
–10
–12
–14
–4
2015
2008
Bank transactions with natural persons
Bank transactions with the CNB
CNB transactions with government and EC
as % of GDP
20
billion EUR
%
Figure 51 Current account flows
billion HRK
Figure 48 Bank liquidity and overnight interbank interest rate
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Direct investment – left
Portfolio investment – left
Financial derivatives – left
Other investment – left
Change in international reserves – left
Total net flows (four-quarter moving average) – right
Note: A positive value denotes net outflow of equity abroad (including on the basis of
the growth in international reserves).
Source: CNB.
Note: Positive values denote net purchases and negative values denote net sales.
Legal persons include the government.
Source: CNB.
Table 2 Balance of paymentsa
Figure 50 International reserves of the CNB
at current rate of exchange
preliminary data, in million EUR
billion EUR
Indices
1–9/2014
1–9/2015
Current account
364.3
958.3
2,645.4
82.3
276.0
Capital account
85.4
42.3
99.6
142.4
235.3
403.8
1,193.7
1,554.0
–
130.2
International
reserves
–529.9
–1,000.3
550.5
–
–
Net errors and
omissions
–575.9
–807.2
–640.6
67.2
79.4
16
15
14
13
12
Financial
account (excl.
reserves)
11
10
9
8
7
6
2008
2009
2010
International reserves
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Net usable international reservesa
NUIR = international reserves – foreign liabilities – reserve requirements in f/c
– foreign currency government deposits.
Source: CNB.
a
2014
2014 / 1–9/2015 /
2013 1–9/2014
In line with the 6th edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment
Position Manual (BPM6).
Source: CNB.
a
17
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221
Figure 53 Financial account flows
Figure 56 Gross external debt
4
6
4
2
0
–2
–4
–6
–8
–10
–12
–14
3
2
1
0
–1
–2
–3
–4
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
billion EUR
end of period
as % of GDP
billion EUR
by types of investments
50
40
30
20
2015
10
Equity liabilities, net – left
Financial derivatives – left
Debt liabilities, net (excl. the change in international reserves) – left
Change in CNB’s liabilities
Change in international reserves – left
Total net capital flows (in the last four quarters) – right
Total net capital flows excl. the change in international reserves
(in the last four quarters) – right
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
General government
Other sectors
Note: A positive value denotes net outflow of equity abroad (including on the
basis of the growth in international reserves). Net liabilities represent the
difference between the change in assets and the change in liabilities.
2012
2013
Croatian National Bank
Direct investment
2014
2015
Other MFIs
Source: CNB.
Source: CNB.
Figure 54 Net external debt (NED) transactionsa
Figure 57 Consolidated central government revenue and
expensea
3
billion HRK
billion EUR
GFS 2001
2
12.0
15 %
11.5
10
1
11.0
0
10.5
5
–1
10.0
0
–2
9.5
–3
9.0
–4
8.5
2009
2010
2011
General government
Other sectors
2012
2013
2014
2015
–5
2008
Other MFIs
Total
Croatian National Bank
Direct investment
Transactions refer to the change in debt excl. cross-currency changes and other
adjustments. Net external debt is calculated as gross external debt stock net of
foreign debt claims.
Note: Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 refer to October and November.
Source: CNB.
2009
2010
2011
2012
Revenue (year-on-year rate of change) – right
Expense (year-on-year rate of change) – right
2013
2014
2015
–10
Revenue – left
Expense – left
a
Trend-values are calculated as 12-month moving averages of original data. Expense
includes expenditures for the acquisition of non-financial assets. From January 2008
on, CM is excluded from consolidated central government.
Sources: MoF and CNB calculations.
a
Table 3 Consolidated general government balance
Figure 55 Gross external debt (GED) transactionsa
billion EUR
ESA 2010, in million HRK
3
Total revenue
2
1
0
–3
2009
2010
2011
General government
Other sectors
2012
2013
Croatian National Bank
Direct investment
2014
2015
Other MFIs
Total
Transactions refer to the change in debt excl. cross-currency changes and other
adjustments.
Note: Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 refer to October and November.
Source: CNB.
a
104,423
108,951
14,043
13,904
Indirect taxes
46,565
49,526
Social contributions
28,751
29,642
Other
15,064
15,880
117,917
117,924
40,081
39,422
Subsidies
5,483
5,420
Interest
8,467
8,843
Compensation of employees
28,685
28,849
Intermediate consumption
19,569
20,048
8,982
8,945
Social benefits
–2
Jan. – Sep.
2015
Direct taxes
Total expenditure
–1
Jan. – Sep.
2014
Investment
Other
Net lending (+) / borrowing (–)
Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
6,650
6,396
–13,494
–8,972
18
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221
Table 4 Consolidated central government overall fiscal balancea
Table 6 General government debt
GFS 2001, in million HRK
in million HRK
  1 Revenue
  2 Disposal of non-financial assets
  3 Expense
  4 Acquisition of non-financial assets
Jan. – Nov.
2014
Jan. – Nov.
2015
107,753
116,733
514
448
114,959
119,864
Change in total debt stock
Jan. – Nov.
2014
Jan. – Nov.
2015
10,740
5,648
Change in domestic debt stock
5,581
4,249
– Securities other than shares, short-term
1,446
–4,861
2,896
4,023
–9,587
–6,707
  6 Disposal of non-financial assets
514
448
  7 Net loans: acquisitionsb
425
89
– Securities other than shares, short-term
  8 Shares and other equities: acquisitions
933
565
– Securities other than shares, long-term
2,324
4,412
0
0
– Loans
2,489
–2,436
0
0
Memo item:
–11,459
–7,808
303
–974
  5 Net borrowing (1 + 2 – 3 – 4)
  9 Securities other than shares: acquisitions
10 Change in arrearsc
Overall fiscal balance (5 – 6 – 7 – 8 – 9 – 10)
For more details on the methodology of the balance calculation, see Box 4 in CNB
Bulletin No. 165.
b
Adjusted for the estimated amount of funds that was raised through the issuance of
bonds and reported under Net loans: acquisitions as instructed by the State Audit Office.
c
Data on the monthly change in arrears are not available to the CNB.
Sources: MoF and CNB calculations.
a
Table 5 Financing of consolidated central government overall
fiscal balance
in million HRK
Overall fiscal balance (GFS 2001)
Financing
Jan. – Nov.
2014
Jan. – Nov.
2015
–11,459
–7,808
11,459
7,808
Borrowing (net)
7,653
5,376
Domestic
3,010
1,520
Foreign
4,643
3,856
Disposal of non-financial assets, shares and
other equity
1,580
475
–2,226
–1,958
Change in deposits
Sources: MoF and CNB calculations.
– Securities other than shares, long-term
– Loans
Change in external debt stock
Change in total guarantees issued
Source: CNB.
7,173
9,097
–3,022
77
5,159
1,399
347
–577
19
CNB BULLETIN • NUMBER 221 • ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS
Abbreviations and symbols
Abbreviations
BIS
– Bank for International Settlements
bn
– billion
b.p.
– basis points
BOP
– balance of payments
– cost, insurance and freight
c.i.f.
CBRD – Croatian Bank for Reconstruction and
  Development
CBS
– Central Bureau of Statistics
CCI
– consumer confidence index
CDCC – Central Depository and Clearing
  Company Inc.
CDS
– credit default swap
CEE
– Central and Eastern European
CEFTA – Central European Free Trade Agreement
CEI
– consumer expectations index
– Croatian Employment Service
CES
CM
– Croatian Motorways
CIHI
– Croatian Institute for Health Insurance
CLVPS – Croatian Large Value Payment System
CNB
– Croatian National Bank
– Croatian Privatisation Fund
CPF
CPI
– consumer price index
CPIA – Croatian Pension Insurance Administration
– Croatian Roads
CR
CSI
– consumer sentiment index
DAB
– State Agency for Deposit Insurance and Bank
Resolution
dep.
– deposit
DVP
– delivery versus payment
EC
– European Commission
– European Central Bank
ECB
EFTA – European Free Trade Association
EMU – Economic and Monetary Union
– economic sentiment index
ESI
EU
– European Union
excl.
– excluding
f/c
– foreign currency
FDI
– foreign direct investment
Fed
– Federal Reserve System
FINA – Financial Agency
f.o.b.
– free on board
GDP
– gross domestic product
GVA
– gross value added
HANFA – Croatian Financial Services Supervisory
  Agency
HICP – harmonised index of consumer prices
ILO
– International Labour Organization
IMF
– International Monetary Fund
incl.
– including
IPO
– initial public offering
m
– million
MIGs – main industrial groupings
MM
– monthly maturity
MoF
– Ministry of Finance
NCA
NCB
NCS
n.e.c.
OECD
OG
R
o/w
PPI
RTGS
Q
RR
SDR
SITC
VAT
WTO
ZMM
ZSE
– National Classification of Activities
– national central bank
– National Clearing System
– not elsewhere classified
– Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and
Development
– Official Gazette
– Republic
– of which
– producer price index
– Real-Time Gross Settlement
– quarterly
– reserve requirement
– special drawing rights
– Standard International Trade Classification
– value added tax
– World Trade Organization
– Zagreb Money Market
– Zagreb Stock Exchange
Three-letter currency codes
ATS
– Austrian schilling
CHF
– Swiss franc
CNY
– Yuan Renminbi
DEM – German mark
EUR
– euro
– French franc
FRF
– pound sterling
GBP
HRK
– Croatian kuna
ITL
– Italian lira
JPY
– Japanese yen
USD
– US dollar
Two-letter country codes
BG
– Bulgaria
CZ
– Czech R.
EE
– Estonia
– Croatia
HR
HU
– Hungary
LV
– Latvia
LT
– Lithuania
PL
– Poland
RO
– Romania
SK
– Slovak R.
SI
– Slovenia
Symbols
–
– no entry
....
– data not available
0
– value is less than 0.5 of the unit of measure
  being used
∅
– average
a, b, c,... – indicates a note beneath the table and figure
*
– corrected data
( )
– incomplete or insufficiently verified data