INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS AND THE INNOVATION PROCESS Discussion paper Prepared by Brent Wheeler This version: June 2013 2 CONTENTS INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS AND THE INNOVATION PROCESS .............................................. 3 Central Place of Science and Technology in the Policy Mix ......................................................................... 3 Research and Development ......................................................................................................................... 3 The Innovation Process ................................................................................................................................ 4 Successful Innovation Processes are Adaptive......................................................................................... 4 Successful Innovative Processes Involve Trial and Error .......................................................................... 4 Successful Innovation Processes Incorporate Variation and Selection .................................................... 5 Successful Innovation Often Involves Unconventional Working Models ................................................ 5 Successful Innovation Often Involves Unconventional Individuals and Teams ....................................... 6 Why Innovation is Tough for Government Owners and Stakeholders ........................................................ 6 Trying New Things Fully Expecting Failure ............................................................................................... 6 Making Failure Survivable ........................................................................................................................ 7 Making Sure Failure is Identified and Fed Back........................................................................................ 7 Unconventional Staff and Working Modes .............................................................................................. 8 Summary .................................................................................................................................................. 8 Implications for Institutional Design ............................................................................................................ 8 Conclusions: A Difficult Policy Challenge ......................................................................................................... 9 3 INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS AND THE INNOVATION PROCESS 1. This paper discusses the nature of innovation processes and the way various institutional arrangements tend to either reinforce the odds of success as opposed to deliberately or, more usually inadvertently, lower those odds through creating obstacles. 2. The origin of the paper lies in a series of projects undertaken by the Morley Wheeler Partnership for both public and private sector clients focussed on commercialisation of “raw” ideas, the “development” component of R&D activity, and the institutional context in which these processes occur. CENTRAL PLACE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY IN THE POLICY MIX 3. Numerous western governments have recently placed much store on the ability of R&D to lift their economies to new highs, restore moribund growth rates and solve significant fiscal problems. The New Zealand government provides a typical example. The 2011 budget placed emphasis on the role of science and innovation in the following terms: A key platform of Government policy is to “lift the long run performance of the economy”. A number of policy initiatives are being implemented in order to achieve this. Most pertinently in respect of this report, “science” and “innovation” are specifically identified as two of six drivers that are pivotal to achieving the long run outcome. 4. The 2013 Budget for NZ sees innovation grants averaging $141.5m for the next four years being made available1 for such purposes. 5. Thus like many western economies New Zealand is looking to advances in science and technology to provide the platform for maintenance of current lifestyles and growth in overall wellbeing. Moreover, like other governments the N.Z. government has and is planning to continue to invest in the area. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 6. The activities loosely termed Research and Development (R&D) can be described as involving research or like activity leading to innovation (research) and related activity which renders innovations capable of delivering commercially viable functionality. 7. While the slant of each activity is distinctive (research considered separately from development), the distinction is blurred, differs from project to project and situation to situation and defies ready definition. 8. What is common to both activities and underlies each is innovation. innovation, most R&D effort is likely to prove fruitless. 1 NZ Herald May 16 2013 Without successful 4 THE INNOVATION PROCESS 9. We argue that the key means for delivering on both public and private value propositions concerning R&D activity is embedding the very nature of the innovative process in the institutional arrangements which are advocated. 10. The innovation process may be characterised as follows: SUCCESSFUL INNOVATION PROCESSES ARE ADAPTIVE 11. The fundamental driving process in innovation is that of adaption. Innovation processes proceed through varying trial and error stages adapting as they go to produce, ultimately, successful outcomes. In that sense we can therefore expect – and indeed do observe – numerous mistakes, errors, omissions and failures. 12. Failure is a significant part of successful innovation. It is failure which allows success to shine through and success is the result of adapting such that the outcome sought, is delivered. 13. Significantly then successful innovation involves what would normally be considered “an uncomfortably high” number of failures. In this respect, innovation processes differ from many other processes (for example assembly line production or distribution processes). 14. This point is critical because it differentiates “standard” activity (for example continuous production runs and like processing activity) strongly from innovation. Failure in innovation is actively sought so that success can be assured through adaptive discovery. In production processes significant efforts are made to avoid failure because it signals unsuccessful outcomes. SUCCESSFUL INNOVATIVE PROCESSES INVOLVE TRIAL AND ERROR 15. An inherent part of the adaptive nature of successful innovation is that the process itself is one of trial and error. The primary reason that trial and error is the dominant process is the complexity of many of the situations in which innovation is sought. 16. The trial and error process is not necessarily a great deal different to that found in the standard scientific method in that it might be characterised as the proposing of hypotheses and their subsequent testing for rejection or acceptance. 17. What is important is that the number of failures (rejections) vastly exceeds that of successes (acceptances). The history of innovation along with research into that history shows that the trial and error process is tremendously powerful and it is that process which is capable of producing high value innovation. 18. Considered in terms of public policy (and specifically fiscal) Governments providing grants can expect and should welcome the direct loss of the majority of the funding they commit to the area, hoping that the gains will offset the loss. This is the stance they need to be comfortable with and justify against other policy objectives, if they are to be credible in the light of what is known of the innovation process. 5 SUCCESSFUL INNOVATION PROCESSES INCORPORATE VARIATION AND SELECTION 19. An inherent part of the trial and error process (and indeed the adaptation process) is that it involves variation and selection. Variation involves the continuous initiation of different ways of “doing things” time and again in each case selecting those which succeed while rejecting those which fail. 20. The net result then is – in line with conventional evolutionary thinking – a process in which there are numerous trials amongst numerous variations resulting in numerous errors and the consecutive selection of successful outcomes as processes are evolved and adapted to producing the outcome sought. 21. This approach is known as an “adaptive experimental” approach and may be seen – usually in hindsight – to account for the vast number of successful innovations. The process may be contrasted with much more “controlled” processes where more mechanistic and deliberate frameworks are used in an attempt to devise new means of achieving goals and objectives. 22. Successful innovation over history has been shown to involve significant random, accidental characteristics with innovations being uncovered through a wide variety of unusual, often unexpected and at times unwitting discoveries. 23. Well known examples include the discovery of penicillin in a contaminated petri dish (accidental discovery) and mathematician Cardono’s imaginary numbers – useless at the time of his musings but essential in the development of radio centuries later2. SUCCESSFUL INNOVATION OFTEN INVOLVES UNCONVENTIONAL WORKING MODELS 24. A significant number of successful innovations have emerged from entirely unconventional working models of research and development. In several cases (for example Capecchi’s Nobel winning work on mouse genes3) success has come in spite of conventional process such as accepted guidelines or funding directives being ignored. 25. In many cases, rationally designed funding programmes are overly risk averse relative to the processes that produce revolutionary breakthroughs. Programmes for example typically back projects and prospects rather than people. Approaches which back people however (for example the Howard Hughes Medical Institute4) have been shown to be highly successful. 26. Throughout history, prizes have frequently been used as means for motivating successful innovation. Recent decades have seen a growth in the use of such forms of motivation5 with various prize giving models being developed. 27. To promote successful innovation institutional arrangements need to have the flexibility to contemplate and likely nourish alternative forms of working model and in particular processes which step outside the norms of “the day.” 2 See Herford, T. Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure, Little Brown, U.K., 2011. See Nobel Price website www.nobelprize.org . 4 Gautam, N. 2009, 21st December, Wall St Journal. 5 See Wired 17, December 2009, Hanson, R. “Patterns of Patronage: Why Grants Won Over Prizes in Science”, Working Paper Univ of California, Berkeley. 3 6 SUCCESSFUL INNOVATION OFTEN INVOLVES UNCONVENTIONAL INDIVIDUALS AND TEAMS 28. It is frequently the case that successful innovators do not fit the mould of conventional or standard staff. The literature is replete with examples of individuals who have records of great success in innovation but who would not be regarded as complying with conventional standards, qualifications or experience. 29. The ability to deal with successive failure, generate continuous out of the ordinary variations, develop entirely original approaches to problems and apply this set of unusual characteristics and their associated behaviours successfully in the field of innovation is, almost by definition, “nonaverage” and at least somewhat idiosyncratic. 30. A number of highly successful innovation teams have been staffed with unconventional individuals operating in unconventional ways. Lockheed’s “Skunk Works” engineering team is a well-known example6. 31. Accordingly, institutional arrangements, while not necessarily needing to take active steps to seek such individuals, must be designed to be flexible enough to accommodate and benefit from them. WHY INNOVATION IS TOUGH FOR GOVERNMENT OWNERS AND STAKEHOLDERS 32. Innovation then is rather different to the deliberate and controlled actions commonly associated with successful business and commerce. It involves serendipitous activity and discovery through various random trial and error processes which address variation and selection. 33. In particular the need to embrace failure as an inherent part of success is important. This type of approach is extremely difficult for individuals to internalise and work with. It is even more difficult for corporate forms (such as large companies or trade associations) and almost impossible for governments. 34. The incentives associated with collectives such as companies and the political nature of governments and the arrangements they commonly employ simply militate against the characteristics of successful innovation7. 35. In considering value propositions frequently associated with growth through R&D it is important to understand why this might be. TRYING NEW THINGS FULLY EXPECTING FAILURE 36. Governments and the agencies they spawn are not well adjusted or suited to failure. In fact quite the opposite expectation prevails. Thus, any form of agency which is constantly exhibiting failure and has a very high ratio of failures to successes is likely to be deemed unacceptable by government and its agencies and doomed to eventual closure. 37. The reasons for this are, while not necessarily relevant in the present context, easy enough to understand. They include the fact that taxpayers money is being used, that failure tends not to 6 Rich, B. and Janos, L Skunk Works Little Brown, U.K. 1994. The issues as they affect corporates are virtually identical to those of the Jensen and Meckling thesis (Journal of Financial Economics, October, 1976, V. 3, No. 4, pp. 305-360.). 7 7 attract “votes” and that popularity with the public at large is not broadly associated with the strings of failures which successful innovation and innovation processes demand. 38. The conclusion is then that conventional institutional arrangements used by governments are unlikely to be well adapted to the kinds of processes which produce successful innovation. In designing institutional arrangements to deliver the value propositions associated with economic recovery via R&D deliberate and significant design steps therefore need to be taken to avoid or at least mitigate heavily this problem. 39. The institutional arrangements need to be designed such as to encourage and fully expect failure. MAKING FAILURE SURVIVABLE 40. Given that failure is an endemic element of success in innovation, it is of great importance that failures must be survivable. This means that it must be possible to have a large number of failures and continue to try new things (expecting even more failure) until success is achieved. Again, such processes are not readily embraced by governments and typical government arrangements. 41. The result of failure in government agencies is typically the closure of programmes, the denial of funding, the exit of key staff, “auditing” by authorities and curtailment of activity in general. In other words, precisely the reverse set of behaviours as might be expected to promote successful innovation. 42. Moreover, the nature of government and popular successful government, is that “grandiose” projects tend to be undertaken and such projects are the least easy to make survive. The prime example in New Zealand would be the “Think Big” programme which involved very large projects where failure made survivability difficult. 43. The grandiose tends to be favoured over the prosaic and mundane simply because popular acclaim and high profile success does not normally accompany a series of relatively low profile and apparently trivial failures. Low profile trivial failures are essential to innovative success however precisely because they involve the many failures necessary for success and the numerous variations accompanied by selection which lead to innovative breakthrough. MAKING SURE FAILURE IS IDENTIFIED AND FED BACK 44. The third element critical to the success of innovative processes is the ability to have sharp and immediate feedback on failure. Once again government arrangements are not well placed to deal with feedback. Typically when failure occurs in government agencies and under government arrangements feedback is slow, denial is common, ability to reverse out of unsuccessful ventures is limited and the ability to send clear signals about failure (so that new initiatives can be started) is equally limited. 45. Both factors that make failure anathema to conventional government and the grandiosity associated with government in supply of projects also operate to make the generation of relevant feedback difficult. 46. Institutional arrangements must be such that they are able to generate the type of rapid feedback about failure which is capable of feeding the initiation of further projects (fully contemplating further failure) readily. 8 UNCONVENTIONAL STAFF AND WORKING MODES 47. Typically, governments are not well suited to operating in ways which consistently depart from convention, operate outside norms, rules, precedent, accepted practice and well established methods of proceeding. This is not a matter of criticism. It is precisely these characteristics that give governments comparative advantage in certain other areas (for the most part consistent application of law and order for example.) 48. It is however to recognise that protocols, processes and operating models which characterise governments are frequently the reverse of those which favour successful innovation. Certain of these processes – for example the running of lotteries – do not necessarily sit well with other objectives of government. 49. Similarly in respect of staff. Governments are not renowned for the employment of the kind of mavericks so often associated with success in innovation. Equally, the types of contractual relationship which might be required for dealing with such personnel are not necessarily those commonly found in governments. SUMMARY 50. The three characteristics required for successful innovation then are: a. Trying “new things” fully expecting failure; b. Making failure survivable; and, c. Making sure failure is identified and fed back. 51. In addition the entities established within such arrangements need to be: a. capable of deploying unconventional work processes and methods of achieving desired outcomes; as well as being; and, b. staffed by unconventional individuals and operating teams which may depart significantly in make-up and work process from the norms applying at any given time. 52. It is precisely these arrangements which governments tend to be poor at establishing and operating. 53. It should be noted that difficulties such as those faced by governments arise for other forms of collective organisation including standard private sector companies and other collective forms. 54. Trade associations are a case in point. These various “associations” in various sectors typically face the same difficulties as governments – they do not like failure, they tend towards grandiosity in projects undertaken, they tend not to survive and endure strings of failure, and their response to feedback often involves strenuous denial. IMPLICATIONS FOR INSTITUTIONAL DESIGN 55. Given this analysis it is relatively simple to see why the business forms typical of the private start up and venture capital sectors have to date enjoyed a great deal more success than attempts at “government engineered” innovation. 9 56. In designing innovation units or divisions within governments (and like entities having the characteristics of collectives), success requires that attention be paid to at least the following: a. A stand alone, branded and autonomous innovation agency with distinct, recognisable culture and business process offers more chance of success than extant government departments or ministries. i. Autonomy is required in order to sustain an institution run to principles which differ significantly from those of its parent(s); and, ii. Autonomy is also required to allow independence in developing operating procedures, hiring staff and like matters. b. Forms of accountability and monitoring regimes which support such accountability need to be developed. These need to reflect the essentials of the innovation process, i.e.: i. The generation of variations and selections and operation of trial and error processes across a wide variety of areas within chosen markets; and, ii. The generation of survivable failures, i.e. the scale and scope of projects undertaken, need to be such that the expected failure rates and their costs in dollar and other (for example time) terms can be sustained. c. Establishing governance structures and making appointments which reflect the need for autonomy and help sustain the distinctive innovation culture. This includes: i. Having selection criteria which exclude appointees who have vested interests in parent organisation principles as opposed to the principles of the innovation enterprise; and, ii. Having selection criteria which actively seek directors and managers who understand, are sympathetic to and have a passion for the principles of innovation rather than the principles appropriate to conventional production and distribution. CONCLUSIONS: A DIFFICULT POLICY CHALLENGE 57. Innovation as a spur to growth is attractive to policy makers at present in part because of the positive benefits it appears to offer and in part because of the persistent failure of many orthodox interventions such as protectionism, infant industry subsidies and various regulatory fillips. 58. Expectations of growth through more frequent and intense innovation has sound conceptual foundations and empirical support as explained in the finest of detail by authors such as McCloskey8. Explanations of the failings of mercantilist interventions are well known. 59. It is understandable then that policy makers are drawn to the promotion of innovation. 60. This discussion has noted that innovation has fundamentally different characteristics to those found in production and distribution activity. Further success – defined as risk adjusted value creation on a sustained basis – has been described as emerging from processes which seem counter intuitive in their logic, random in outcome and to involve maverick behaviour. 8 McCloskey, D. Bourgeois Dignity, Univ of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2010. 10 61. Consequently the conventional institutional arrangements and incentive structures of entities such as governments and government agencies are often ill suited to the requirements for success in innovation. Indeed outputs typically lauded under such arrangements are likely to be detrimental to the possibility of successful innovation and thus the growth it might deliver. 62. The implication is that policy makers need to heed the requirements for success in innovation when choosing the institutional regimes under which they intervene. The requirements might call for a total re think of institutional design, the contracting out of innovation practice to those who do operate in structures which are well attuned to success or simply removing obstacles to private sector innovation wherever possible so as to maximise the chances of success and minimising the risk of crowding out opportunity.
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