Africa oil
and gas:
a continent
on the move
Introduction
The African oil and gas
landscape
1
3
Highlights of the 2011
Africa attractiveness survey
Looking forward:
regional prospects and
opportunities in the oil and
gas sector
5
Company exposure in
the region
6
Ernst & Young in Africa
8
Africa is on an upward growth curve.
This growth is underpinned by a longerterm process of economic and regulatory
reform that has occurred across much of
the continent since the end of the Cold
War — a period during which inflation has
been brought under control, foreign debt
and budget deficits reduced, state-owned
enterprises privatized, regulatory and legal
systems strengthened, and many African
economies opened up to international trade
and investment.
Widespread reform has resulted in an
ever-improving business environment,1
and this, together with other factors, such
as the commodities boom and increasing
infrastructure investment, has contributed
to a doubling of economic output over the
past decade. During this period, a number
of African economies have recorded
impressive growth rates. For example,
six African economies were among the
10 fastest-growing economies in the world
in the period 2001 – 10, according to
The Economist.2 Most African economies
proved resilient through the global financial
crisis, with the sub-Saharan region, for
example, rebounding very strongly from
a slight dip in 2009 to grow, according
to International Monetary Fund (IMF)
forecasts, by 5% in 2010, 5.5% in 2011
and 6% in 2012.3
As an example of “business-friendly” reform, in
the last four years, 10 African countries, Ghana,
Egypt, Kenya, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Senegal,
Liberia, Cape Verde, Zambia and Rwanda — have
all been featured in the World Bank’s top 10
business reformers list.
2
“Africa’s impressive growth,” The Economist,
6 January 2011.
3
World Economic Outlook: Tensions from the
Two-Speed Recovery, IMF, April 2011.
1
Resources generally, and oil and gas
specifically, have played an important role
in this growth. Nineteen African countries
are significant producers of oil and/or gas,
and the revenues from higher prices and
the investment that new discoveries are
attracting have made a key contribution
to growth. While the majority of reserves
and production remain concentrated in six
countries — Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, Angola
(oil), Sudan (oil) and Egypt (gas) — there
have been significant new discoveries in
Ghana, Tanzania, Mozambique and Uganda,
with prospected fields in other countries,
including Sierra Leone, Mali and Kenya.
It is therefore not too surprising that
investors are optimistic about the potential
for growth in the African oil and gas sector.
While there are risks in Africa, as there
are elsewhere — some fragile regimes,
some weak legal systems, some inefficient
and ineffective institutions and some
potential for civil unrest — the rewards are
commensurately high. Economic growth,
expanding populations, and the building of
efficient and effective political and social
institutions will all have positive implications
for energy consumption in the region.
It is important to note that many African
economies are resource and/or commoditydependent, and therefore oil and natural
gas development will continue to play a
vital role in these countries and in the
region as a whole.
The African oil and gas landscape
At the end of 2010, African oil and natural gas reserves were estimated to be between 200 – 210 billion barrels
of oil equivalent (boe), with the Oil & Gas Journal providing a slightly higher estimate than the US Department of
Energy (DOE). Reserves are currently dominated by Nigeria, Algeria and Libya, which collectively account for more
than 77% of the region’s total proved reserves.
African oil and gas p roved reserves
1 9 8 0 – 2 0 1 0
’80
Oil
’81
Gas
’82
’83
’84
’85
’86
’87
’88
African p roved oil and gas reserves: end – 2 0 1 0
Oil
Gas
(million bbls)
(bcf)
(billion boe)
Nigeria
37,200.0
186,880
68.3
Libya
46,420.0
54,680
55.5
Algeria
12,200.0
159,000
38.7
Egypt
4,400.0
77,200
17.3
Angola
9,500.0
10,940
11.3
Sudan
5,000.0
3,000
5.5
Gabon
2,000.0
1,000
2.2
3,200
’89
Congo
1,600.0
’90
Chad
1,500.0
2.1
1.5
’91
Equatorial Guinea
1,100.0
1,300
1.3
’92
Uganda
1,000.0
500
1.1
’93
Cameroon
200.0
4,770
1.0
’94
Tunisia
425.0
2,300
0.8
’95
Ghana
660.0
800
0.8
’96
’97
’98
’99
’00
’01
’02
’03
Mozambique
4,500
0.8
Namibia
2,200
0.4
Rwanda
2,000
0.3
Cote d’Ivoire
100.0
1,000
0.3
Mauritania
100.0
1,000
0.3
Democratic Republic
of Congo (DRC)
180.0
35
0.2
0.4
880
0.1
’05
Tanzania
Ethiopia
230
*
’06
Somalia
200
*
’07
South Africa
’08
Benin
’09
Morocco
’10
T otal
’04
0
50
100
150
Billion boe
200
250
15.0
8.0
*
40
*
0.7
51
*
123,609
517,706
210
* Less than 50 million boe
Source: Oil & Gas Journal
Source: US Department of Energy
Africa oil and gas: a continent on the move
1
After declining slightly in 2009, African oil and gas production is estimated to have increased to about 13 million boe/d
in 2010, with conventional oil production reaching about 9 million b/d. Production is highly concentrated for both oil
and natural gas, with the five largest producers accounting for more than 80% of the region’s oil production and more
than 90% of the region’s gas production.
African oil and gas p rodu ction
1 0 largest African p rodu cers of oil and natu ral gas
’80
Oil
Oil: 2010
’81
Gas
(000 b/d)
Gas: 2009
(bcf/d)
Nigeria
2,065
Algeria
7.88
’82
Angola
1,790
Egypt
6.07
’83
Libya
1,550
Nigeria
2.25
’84
Algeria
1,250
Libya
1.54
’85
Egypt
740
Equatorial Guinea
0.61
Sudan
480
Mozambique
0.35
Congo
270
Tunisia
0.35
Equatorial Guinea
255
South Africa
0.18
’90
Gabon
245
Cote d'Ivoire
0.15
’91
Chad
100
Angola
0.07
’92
Others
237
Others
’93
T otal
’86
’87
’88
’89
’94
8,982
T otal
0.13
19.58
Source: US Department of Energy, Oil & Gas Journal, and Ernst & Young estimates
’95
However, despite current levels of concentration, oil and gas will be
a key driver of growth across Africa going forward. There are everincreasing discoveries of new oil and gas (for example, in Ghana,
Tanzania, Mozambique and Uganda) and prospected fields in many
countries (including Sierra Leone, Mali and Kenya).
’96
’97
’98
’99
’00
African oil supply, including crude oil, lease condensates, natural
gas liquids and other liquids, increased sharply over the past
decade, averaging just less than 11 million b/d in 2010. The
conventional forecasts see African oil supply growth continuing
over the next 25 years, albeit more slowly than it has recently —
with forecasted ranges of growth over the period of between
0.5 million and 2.0 million b/d. African natural gas supply has
similarly grown in the recent decade, and forecasts of supply
growth are dramatically stronger than for oil, with supply possibly
doubling to about 15 tcf by 2035.4
’01
’02
’03
’04
’05
’06
’07
’08
’09
’10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Million boe/d
Source: US Department of Energy, Oil & Gas Journal,
and Ernst & Young estimates
2
16
4
US Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration,
international energy database, accessed 15 February 2011; International
Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2010, November 2010; and US
Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration, International
Energy Outlook 2010, July 2010.
Africa oil and gas: a continent on the move
There is a less conventional view, and
one supported by economist Paul Collier,
that the scale of what is likely to happen
in Africa is not widely appreciated; he
argues that future discoveries and resulting
exports of resources (including oil and
gas) will be around five times their current
level (based on what remains unexplored
in Africa versus currently known sub-soil
assets), and that this will have a profoundly
positive impact on Africa’s future growth
and strategic positioning in the global
economy.5
As yet further evidence of Africa’s
tremendous potential, the International
Energy Agency (IEA), in its most recent
World Energy Outlook, expects that almost
US $2.1 trillion will need to be invested
in African oil and natural gas supply
infrastructure over the 2010 – 35 period —
an average of more than US $83 billion
per year, more than the IEA expects will be
invested in the Middle East, Latin America or
even in Asia over the same period.
5
H ighlights of the 2011 Africa attractiveness survey
The results of our first Africa
attractiveness survey highlight what over
500 business leaders had to say about
Africa’s growth story, the latest foreign
direct investment (FDI) trends and the
region’s growth potential. FDI flows have
increased sharply in the past decade,
investor perceptions of Africa continue
to improve and the outlook is positive,
with capital inflows forecast to reach
US$150b by 2015.
To demonstrate that the output of the
study was robust, we included the
following inputs:
• We conducted a perception survey
of 562 cross-sector business
decision-makers from 38 countries
in five languages.
• At the same time, we used detailed
data from the fDi Markets database
to provide quantitative analysis of
greenfield cross-border investment
in Africa.
To a large extent, perceptions of
Africa as a place to do business mirror
the improved political and economic
conditions that are driving the continent’s
growth story. Generally speaking,
investor perceptions have improved in the
last three years, with a substantial 68%
of respondents believing that Africa has
become more attractive.
Looking forward, our respondents believe
that Africa’s performance will continue
to improve. Some 75% of the business
leaders interviewed are positive about the
continent’s prospects over the next three
years. Across the board, our respondents
appear to be more positive about Africa’s
future than about its past.
There are, however, interesting variations
in responses depending on the location of
investors:
• African respondents are
overwhelmingly positive about the
continent’s progress and prospects.
• We also commissioned supplementary
research from Oxford Economics
to build a robust understanding of
forward-looking trends.
• Investors from other emerging countries
share this sense of optimism, with Asian
investors in particular more positive
about Africa’s future than its past.
The findings highlighted that Africa
is becoming increasingly attractive to
international investors.
• Developed regions such as Europe
and North America appear to be less
optimistic about Africa’s shorter-term
prospects, although a large majority
of respondents are positive about
longer-term growth potential.
Paul Collier, The Plundered Planet: Why We
Must — and How We Can — Manage Nature For
Global Prosperity, New York: Oxford U.P., 2010;
and “The case for investing in Africa,” McKinsey
Quarterly, June 2010.
Africa oil and gas: a continent on the move
3
E x tractive indu stries are p erceived as offering the greatest investment p otential
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the large
majority of respondents view the
extractive industries, including
oil and gas, as having the highest
growth potential over the next
two years. This perhaps reflects
a more general perception that
Africa’s economic growth over the
last few years has been largely
driven by the commodities boom,
but it underlines the increasing
strategic importance of Africa’s
rich resource base.
The data backs this perception
to some extent, showing that,
over the period 2003 – 10, the
extractive industries attracted
by far the greatest proportion of
FDI (more than 50%). As a single
category in our analysis, the “coal,
oil and gas” sector itself accounted
for 40% of FDI capital invested
into Africa over this period. This
demonstrates how critical this
sector has been in driving the
African growth story.
The full version of “Ernst & Young’s
2011 Africa attractiveness
survey” can be downloaded from
www.ey.com/za
4
T op sectors that w ill offer the greatest p otential in the nex t tw o y ears
Mining and metals
44%
Oil and gas
21%
Exploitation of natural resources
15%
Hotels and tourism
15%
Consumer products
15%
Construction
14%
Telecommunications
13%
Financial services
9%
Energy
Transportation
8%
6%
Industrial and commercial machinery
4%
Infrastructure development
4%
Electronic and electrical equipment
4%
Automotive
3%
Alternative/renewable energy
3%
Business services
3%
Retail
3%
Software and IT services
3%
Source: Ernst & Young’s 2011 Africa attractiveness survey.
Respondents selected several answers. Total respondents: 562.
Africa oil and gas: a continent on the move
Looking forward
Regional prospects and opportunities in the oil and gas sector
North Africa
The current political uncertainty in North
Africa may have significant implications
for the region’s oil and gas industry,
particularly so in two of the “old lions,”
Algeria and Libya, where industry revenues
dominate the country’s economies. Until
recently, the sub region had seen a general
reduction in political risk and an increase
in investment in the oil and gas industry,
particularly on the gas side. Until the
political situation is settled, operations are
likely to be constrained and/or disrupted
and new investment postponed. The sub
region’s industry has broadly remained
open to the international oil companies
(IOC’s), particularly the European “majors,”
as well as to the specialized independents,
both large and small. Investment is usually
through production sharing agreements
(PSAs) with the state oil companies.
West Africa
Dominated by one of the old lions (Nigeria)
and one of the new lions (Angola), West
African activity has taken off in the last
decade, driven particularly by advances
in offshore technology. Angola became
the newest member of the Organization
of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) cartel in January 2007, and
has become one of Africa’s leading
producers, threatening to overtake the
long-time leading producer, Nigeria. With
the prominence of the deepwater in the
sub region’s industry, it is dominated
by the super-majors, typically working
under joint venture (JV) arrangements or
through consortia. Nevertheless, there
is also growing participation of national
oil companies (NOC’s) from outside the
region (e.g., Petrobras and Sinopec) and
by midsized and smaller independents.
Local content laws are further increasing
participation from smaller regional firms.
Other players include the Congo, which
is still one of Africa’s largest producers,
but whose oil production is in decline and
potential gas development is limited by a
lack of infrastructure. That could change,
however, if the World Bank’s proposed
African Gas Initiative, which focuses on
gas reserves in Angola, Cameroon, Congo,
Gabon and Cote d’Ivoire, goes forward.
The Congo is also thought to have some
deepwater offshore potential. Central
Africa’s other major player, Chad, has seen
some recent success, led by ExxonMobil
and China’s CNPC, but suffers from a
somewhat challenging geology that makes
development costly.
The sub region also includes a number
of smaller producers whose industry
is generally in decline due to mature
fields (e.g., Gabon and Cameroon), and
some whose oil and gas industry is in its
ascendancy, with a few recent big successes
that may bode well for the future. Notably,
Equatorial Guinea hopes to leverage the
Marathon-led discoveries and developments
into rapid economic growth, while the
Anadarko/Tullow success in Ghana’s Jubilee
area will transform the country’s oil and gas
industry. These successes are also thought
to bode well for neighboring developments
in the West African/Atlantic Transform
Margin in offshore Sierra Leone, Cote
d’Ivoire and potentially Liberia.
Africa oil and gas: a continent on the move
South and East Africa
The rapid growth of one of Africa’s new
lions, the Sudan, has been driven primarily
by Asian state-owned investors, notably
CNPC, Petronas and ONGC, who quickly
filled the void when Western investment
dried up because of political/reputational
risk and international sanctions. Now one
of Africa’s leading producers, the country
is, however, faced with the secession of the
southern portion of the country and the
inevitably controversial management of the
oil and gas resources.
The sub region is also home to what could
be a game-changer for the African oil and
gas industry: the “newest lion cubs” – the
deepwater gas prospects off Tanzania and
Mozambique. Led by Anadarko and some
of the smaller regional specialists, including
Tullow, Maurel & Prom, and some of the
larger IOCs, recent discoveries, notably the
Windjammer prospect, have confirmed the
Rovuma Basin as a promising gas province.
5
C omp any ex p osu re in the region
1,000
30%
Oil and gas production (left axis)
African upstream value as a percentage
of total (right axis)
800
700
25%
20%
600
15%
500
400
10%
300
200
5%
100
0%
M BG
ar
at
ho
Ap n
ac
he
Co
no H
co es
Ph s
illi
p
Re s
An pso
ad l
ar
ko
0
Source: IHS Herold, Inc., company reports and Ernst & Young estimates
6
Africa oil and gas: a continent on the move
% of total company net worth
900
TO EN
T
I
Ex AL
xo SA
nM
o
Ch bil
ev
ro
n
Sh
el
l
BP
In recent years, Africa has seen
increasing interest from NOCs as well
as traded companies from outside
the region, notably from China, India,
Malaysia and Russia. The African
upstream has also attracted a vibrant,
smaller independent E&P sector,
featuring relatively small but very
competitive regional specialists.
African oil and gas p rodu ction ex p osu re
000 boe/d
African oil and gas production is led
by the major integrated companies,
particularly the Italian and French
majors, ENI and Total SA respectively,
both of which have long and deep
relationships in the region. In terms of
relative corporate exposure to African
upstream oil and gas (i.e., looking
at African upstream asset value in
relation to the total assessed value of
the company), ENI and Total SA have
the greatest exposure, along with the
smaller US integrated company, Hess.
Exploration and drilling activity
African drilling activity accounts for a relatively small portion of the global industry total
typically ranging between 4 % and 7% of the global total. As measured by drilling rig activity,
interest in African oil and gas broadly declined from the early 1980s until the mid 1990s,
paralleling the global trend. Interest picked up in the mid 1990s only to slide once again in
the late 1990s.
However, beginning in late 1999, drilling activity has increased fairly steadily, except for the
brief but sharp downturn following the collapse of oil and gas prices in late 2008. As of the
end of 2010, Baker Hughes reported 182 active rotary rigs in Africa, out of a global total of
3,227 rigs. Rig activity in Africa is dominated by land drilling, although offshore activity has
increased in recent years particularly off West Africa.
Other oil and gas activity
D rilling activity in Africa:
1 9 8 2 – 2 0 1 0
(Baker Hughes monthly rig counts)
’82
’83
Land
’84
Offshore
’85
’86
’87
’88
’89
Accompanying the sustained growth in the upstream segment of the African oil and gas
industry is strong growth in the associated midstream and downstream infrastructure parts
of the business — terminals, storage capacity and most critically, pipelines and refineries.
New pipeline capacity may be necessary, particularly where new production is landlocked,
such as is the case in Chad, Sudan and Uganda. In the case of refining capacity, according
to estimates from the IEA, the region’s crude distillation unit (CDU) capacity is expected
to increase by about 10% in the period leading up to 2015, with investments by Chinese
investors dominating the proposed expansions. Typically in exchange for access to various
upstream projects, Chinese firms have been investing in infrastructure developments across
a wide range of oil-producing African countries. New Chinese-backed refineries are under
construction in Chad and Niger, and have been proposed in Egypt, Sudan and Nigeria.6 In
addition, China’s CNOOC is one of the partners (with Tullow and Total SA) in the proposed
new refinery in Uganda, which will process the country’s new crude oil production.7
Also notable in the African oil downstream is the restructuring that is under way in the
refining and marketing segments, with the large international integrated companies (i.e.,
ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, BP, Chevron and Total SA) each divesting parts of their
downstream network in Africa, including some refining interests as well as some storage,
retail and marketing assets. Buyers of these assets have included local and regional
petroleum marketing companies, such as South Africa’s Engen Petroleum or Kenya’s Kenol,
as well as international trading companies, such as Puma/Trafigura and Vitol, and several
integrated Asian players, including India’s Essar Oil and South Korea’s SK Energy.
’90
’91
’92
’93
’94
’95
’96
’97
’98
’99
’00
’01
’02
’03
’04
’05
’06
’07
’08
’09
’10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Active rotary rigs
Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.
6
7
International Energy Agency, Medium-Term Oil and Gas Markets 2010, June 2010.
IHS Global Insight, Inc., Ugandan Government and Tullow Planning 20,000 b/d Refinery in Albertine
Graben, 6 June 2011.
Africa oil and gas: a continent on the move
7
Ernst & Young in Africa
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Cape
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Sudan
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Sudan
Nigeria
Cameroon
Equatorial
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Togo
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Eritrea
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car
Ernst & Young draws upon our global
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Tunisia
co
oc
or
M
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Ernst & Young has a presence in 31
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Africa oil and gas: a continent on the move
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Country
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[email protected]
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[email protected]
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Cameroon
Joseph Pagop Noupoue
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Jean-François Albrecht
[email protected]
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topics for firms established in Africa and
for those looking to invest. Topics include
investment opportunities in Kenya,
reviews of the Islamic finance industry
and the mining and metals sector.
H ow to w rite y ou rself into
the African grow th story
In this report, you will find ideas about
how to begin developing a growth
strategy for Africa. The analysis not only
demonstrates the significant growth
potential that exists among Africa’s one
billion consumers, but also the need,
first, to move beyond general analysis
of the “African” market to a far more
granular level of market-specific detail
and, second, to deepen conventional
country-based macroanalysis by using
other market lenses, such as regional
trading blocs, urban corridors and
cultural or socioeconomic groupings.
All of the above publications can be
downloaded from www.ey.com/za
Africa oil and gas: a continent on the move
9
Ernst & Young’s Global Oil & Gas Center contacts
Dale Nijoka
Global Oil & Gas Leader
+1 713 750 1551
[email protected]
Sanjeev Gupta
Asia-Pacific
+65 6309 8688
[email protected]
Marcela Donadio
Americas
+1 713 750 1276
[email protected]
John Avaldsnes
Europe, Middle East, India and Africa (EMEIA)
+47 51 70 67 40
[email protected]
Enrique Grotz
Argentina
+54 11 4515 2655
[email protected]
David Barringer
Middle East
+973 3961 7303
[email protected]
Russell Curtin
Australia
+61 8 9429 2424
[email protected]
Jeff Sluijter
Netherlands
+31 88 407 8710
[email protected]
Carlos Assis
Brazil
+55 21 2109 1606
[email protected]
Alexey Loza
Russia
+7 495 641 2945
[email protected]
Barry Munro
Canada
+1 403 206 5017
[email protected]
James Newlands
South Africa
+27 21 443 0489
[email protected]
Raymond Ng
China
+86 10 5815 3332
[email protected]
Andy Brogan
United Kingdom
+44 (0) 20 7951 7009
[email protected]
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How Ernst & Young’s Global Oil & Gas
Center can help your business
The oil and gas industry is constantly
changing. Increasingly uncertain energy
policies, geopolitical complexities,
cost management and climate change
all present significant challenges.
Ernst & Young’s Global Oil & Gas Center
supports a global practice of over 8,000
oil and gas professionals with technical
experience in providing assurance, tax,
transaction and advisory services across
the upstream, midstream, downstream
and oilfield service sub-sectors. The Center
works to anticipate market trends, execute
the mobility of our global resources and
articulate points of view on relevant key
industry issues. With our deep industry
focus, we can help your organization
drive down costs and compete more
effectively to achieve its potential.
© 2011 EYGM Limited.
All Rights Reserved.
EYG no. DW0100
WR no. 1107-1271904
This publication contains information in summary form
and is therefore intended for general guidance only. It
is not intended to be a substitute for detailed research
or the exercise of professional judgment. Neither EYGM
Limited nor any other member of the global Ernst & Young
organization can accept any responsibility for loss
occasioned to any person acting or refraining from
action as a result of any material in this publication.
On any specific matter, reference should be made to
the appropriate advisor.