Round 2 Interrogatories 2013 GRA September 10, 2012 PUB (MPI) 2013 GRA Information Requests PUB (MPI) 2-1 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-1 a) Please file the Corporation’s Board of Directors and Audit Committee meeting minutes for 2011/12 that relate to: (i) IT Optimization; (ii) Compliance with prior Board Orders; (iii) Approval of the 2013 GRA; (iv) Approval of the 2011/12 audited financial statements; and (v) Approval of the external actuary. b) Please file the minutes from the quarterly meetings of the Investment Committee. PUB (MPI) 2-2 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-3, TI.18 Sections 2, 3 a) Please clarify the reference to an assumed volume factor of 1.75% for 2012/13 and beyond as cited in TI.12, TI.13 and TI.15A, versus the documentation of this assumption being 2.75% as provided in TI.18 Section 2.3. b) Please augment the justification provided in TI.18 Section 3.3 with respect to the selection of an assumed vehicle upgrade factor of 2.50% for 2012/13 and beyond based on HTA-only historical experience recognizing that the premium being projected encompasses both HTA and non-HTA vehicles and that non-HTA historical experience has persistently decreased the overall vehicle upgrade factor by between 47 and 122 percentage points over the last eight years. Page | 1 c) Please provide supporting documentation for the derivation of the 2013/14 Motor Vehicles Premiums Written of $761,582,000 (starting from the 2012/13 forecast of $729,600,000) demonstrating the use of the 2.75% volume factor and 2.50% vehicle upgrade factor assumptions. PUB (MPI) 2-3 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-6 a) Please provide the names of the individuals who currently comprise the Investment Committee. b) Please provide the names of the individuals who currently comprise the Investment Committee Working Group. c) Please advise of the role and responsibilities of each of the Manager of Investments and the Manager of Financial Services positions within the Corporation and their respective roles within the Investment Committee Working Group. d) Please advise of whether the Investment Committee Working Group has held special meetings within the last year (in addition to the quarterly meetings required by the Terms of Reference of the Investment Committee). If so, please explain the circumstances that warranted the special meeting(s) and provide the minutes thereof. PUB (MPI) 2-4 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-6, PUB/MPI 1-8 In paragraph 7, page 3 of Attachment A to PUB/MPI 1-6, it is reflected that among the purposes of the Investment Committee are a number of recommendation, review and oversight functions relative to the Corporation’s investments and in paragraph 10, page 4 of the same attachment it is reflected that among the role of the Investment Committee Working Group are a variety of development, monitoring, drafting and implementation functions also relative to the Corporation’s investments. Please reconcile these responsibilities with the Corporation’s answer to PUB/MPI 1-8(d). Page | 2 PUB (MPI) 2-5 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-8 (d), (e), (f) a) Given the importance of investment income to the Corporation’s overall revenues, please advise of whether the Investment Committee and/or Investment Committee Working Group have considered updating the independent AON report, presented to the Board in 2008 at the 2009 GRA. If not, why not? b) Please provide the definitions of “Average Investment Portfolio” and “Average Effective Rate” as referenced in AI.9, page 1 and explain the relationship of those amounts to forecast Corporate Investment Income for 2013/14. c) Please identify the author of the Investment Activity & Performance Reports. d) Please file the most recent Investment Activity & Performance Report. e) It is reflected on page 1 of PUB/MPI 1-8(f) that “The extra cash balances are being held for tactical purposes and will be considered to be part of the fixed income portfolio for performance measurement purposes commencing on June 1, 2012”. Please explain the tactical purposes referenced and explain why these extra cash balances are being considered to be part of the fixed income portfolio. PUB (MPI) 2-6 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-10(b), CAC/MPI 1-84 a) Please explain why the real estate portfolio management fees increased by $772,000 from 2011/12. b) Please provide details on how the investment management fees, including with respect to real estate investments, are determined. Page | 3 PUB (MPI) 2-7 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-14(a) a) Please advise of who authored the Statement of Investment Beliefs found on page 5 of the Investment Policy Statement. If external resources were utilized to develop this statement please file a copy of the report. b) Please advise of who are “The administrators of the Fund” as referenced in the Statement of Investment Beliefs. c) Please identify the role of the Investment Committee Working Group in item (iii) of the Statement of Investment Beliefs, namely the identifying, measuring and monitoring of risks within the portfolio. d) Please advise of which representatives of the Corporation are involved in identifying, measuring and monitoring of risks within the portfolio. e) On pages 5 and 6 of the Investment Policy Statement it is reflected that the Investment Committee Working Group shall annually review the risk, return and diversification of the equity holdings, alternative investments and fixed income holdings within the portfolio and report the results to the Investment Committee. Please file the most recent such analysis or report. f) Please explain why changes were made to the responsibilities of the Investment Committee Working Group as referenced on page 10 of the Investment Policy Statement and confirm that as a result of these changes the role of representatives of the Corporation relative to its investments has been enhanced. g) Please explain the reason for the changes to permitted investments, namely the elimination of international equity investments as referenced on pages 5 and 16 of the Investment Policy Statement. h) Please advise of why the Corporation’s Rebalancing Policy has been eliminated from the Investment Policy Statement. Page | 4 i) Please explain what considerations are now undertaken and/or documented on when and how to rebalance the Corporation’s investment portfolio within outside established target ranges. PUB (MPI) 2-8 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-15 a) Please explain why the forecast and projected amounts of Net Claims Incurred are not affected by the assumed yield curve shifts. b) With the understanding that unpaid claims provisions will be affected by yield curve shifts, please provide another response to PUB/MPI 1-15. PUB (MPI) 2-9 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-16(f) a) Please confirm that the 1.0080 factor cited in the table in this response represents the indexation adjustment to PIPP benefits that took effect 1 March 2011. b) Please provide a ten year history of these indexation adjustments, and provide an authoritative source for the CPI information on which they are based. PUB (MPI) 2-10 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-17 a) Further to your response to 17(b), please provide supporting rationale and documentation beyond that provided in TI.18 Section 1.3 for the selection of the assumed inflation rate for indexed benefits used in the valuation. b) Please discuss the impact on fiscal year 2011/12 financial statements (balance sheet and income statement) arising from there being a difference between the indexation adjustment of 1.0080 applied at 1 March 2011 versus the assumed inflation rate of 2.0% in the valuation as at 28 February 2011, with respect to inflation-indexed lines of business. Page | 5 c) Further to your response to 17(e), AI.10A Page 48 indicates that the increase in investment return rate margin for adverse deviations is “to account for observed higher inflation rate coupled with lower trending interest rates”. Please expand on the rationale for why the coupling of these two changes (higher inflation rate, lower trending interest rates) justifies an increase in this margin. Does either of these two changes on its own justify a change in this margin? d) Further to your response to 17(f), considering the discount rate of interest selected for inflation-indexed lines of business is affected by the assumed future inflation rate (which does not affect the non-indexed lines of business), why isn`t there a greater level of uncertainty (and therefore a greater margin for adverse deviations) associated with the selected discount rate of interest used for inflation-indexed lines of business? PUB (MPI) 2-11 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-19 a) Please explain how the derivation of the Fitted Expected Loss Ratios properly accounts for the loss ratio impact of rate level changes, volume growth and vehicle upgrades. b) Further to your response to 19(b), please describe what process is used in the selection of ultimate loss trends if not regression analysis. c) Further to your response to 19(b), please provide commentary on the statistical strength and predictive power of the selected trend assumptions. PUB (MPI) 2-12 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-27(c) a) Please provide the historical data from which the selected annual drift assumptions by Major Class are selected, as shown in the Attachment, Row [1]. b) Please provide an appropriate weighted average calculation of the selected annual drift assumptions by Major Class, and comment on any difference from the overall drift (upgrade) factor assumption of 2.50% made in the Application. Page | 6 PUB (MPI) 2-13 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-28(a) Please provide the supporting, detailed calculations for the determination of the “MPI RG” within the example. PUB (MPI) 2-14 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-29 Please explain the factors that led to the reduction in the number of claims in 2011, particularly within the Private Passenger and Motorcycle major classes. PUB (MPI) 2-15 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-30 a) Please explain what factors have led to the increases in “Expenses” 2011 and 2012. b) Please explain what factors have led to the increases in “Rehab” and 2012. PUB (MPI) 2-16 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-33(g) Please provide the compounded annual growth rate for the period from 2007/08 to 2011/12. PUB (MPI) 2-17 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-38 a) For comparative purposes regarding the growth of Basic’s costs relative to that of the Corporation as a whole, please provide the analysis requested in PUB/MPI 1-38(a), in a similar level of detail to TI.7.A for the Corporation as a whole and comment on the trend of increasing costs projected for 2013/14 and 2014/15. b) Please provide the relative percentage of corporate expenses for each expense category on the same basis as in PUB/MPI 1-33(g). Page | 7 c) Please restate PUB/MPI 1-38(a) and (b) having removed all special projects including, for example, but not limited to, Business Process Review and IT Optimization, and itemize all such projects. PUB (MPI) 2-18 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-43(c) a) The footnotes referenced in the response provided do not reflect the data requested. Please provide all supporting calculations for the 2010 comparisons of the Corporation with SGI and ICBC, with reference to source documents. b) Please update the analyses on pages 10 and 11 of AI.15 utilizing 2011 information and provide detailed calculations. PUB (MPI) 2-19 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-44(a) a) Please comment on any known differences in coverage or other factors that have led to Regina, Saskatchewan drivers obtaining more affordable insurance coverage within every driver profile. b) Please comment on any known differences in coverage or other factors that have led to Montreal, Quebec and Charlottetown, PEI drivers obtaining more affordable insurance coverage within driver profiles 1 and 2. c) Please provide any commentary that accompanied the tabular analysis including any written report. PUB (MPI) 2-20 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-47(d), (e) Last year the Corporation provided projected corporate staffing levels to 2016 calculated on a different basis than this year’s analysis in TI.9. Please re-state last year’s TI.9 using the calculation methodology employed this year, and comment on the differences in the results. Page | 8 PUB (MPI) 2-21 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-47(g), CAC/MPI 1-121(d) The Corporation’s response references the avoidance of a $30 million capital expense. What are the staffing level reductions anticipated as a result of the IBM arrangement? PUB (MPI) 2-22 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-48(b) Given that the Corporation’s major operating expense is compensation and the Board sets rates based on forecasts, including forecasts of compensation, please provide the total wages and benefits by pay grade and EFTs per pay grade for 2004/05 to 2013/14 together with the compounded annual growth rates for 2004/05 to 2011/12 and 2011/12 to 2013/14. PUB (MPI) 2-23 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-51 Basic’s revenue requirement includes the cost consequences of the Corporation’s IT spending allocated to Basic. Gartner has advised that the Corporation’s IT spending is higher than peer organizations as well as the overall industry average. On the basis that some of these above average costs are being or will be allocated to Basic, provide a table detailing each of the conclusions and issues raised in the Gartner report, MPI’s specific actions to address the same and Gartner’s assessment of MPI’s remedial strategies and successes to date. PUB (MPI) 2-24 Reference: AI.19 a) Please provide the quantum of IT spending in 2010/11 and 2011/12 with support for the conclusion that spending was reduced by nearly 26% in 2011/12. b) Please explain the factors that led to a 26% reduction in IT spending in 2011/12 over 2010/11. Page | 9 c) Please advise of the extent to which the peer group with which MPI is compared is comprised of public insurers. If available, please provide the peer comparison with ICBC and SGI only. d) Please elaborate on the performance gaps which it is suggested that MPI close via focused Cost Containment activities. Please advise of the Cost Containment activities that MPI has implemented or will implement and the targeted cost savings associated therewith. e) To what extent are the results of the Cost Containment activities reflected in the forecasts presently before the Board? f) Please explain the changes that the Corporation is proposing to meet the gap in Business Process Management including targeted cost savings. g) Please reconcile the FTE changes and levels reflected in AI.19 with the staffing analysis presented at TI.9. If TI.9 was not the source of the information used by Gartner please provide information on IT staffing levels in support of Gartner’s analysis. h) Please provide the composition of MPI’s IT staffing levels broken down by In House versus Contractor for the years 2010 through 2014. i) Please provide the required headcount reduction of IT FTEs that would be required mathematically to meet the peer average in 2010/11 and the relative payroll or contractor cost savings that would result. j) Please advise of the extent to which the analysis in AI.19 reflects the change of moving to a shared services solution with IBM. PUB (MPI) 2-25 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-52(a) a) What was the “initial solution” referenced in the Corporation’s answer and the cost estimate therefore? Page | 10 b) Please file the current net present value analysis that demonstrates the 13% savings, including all key assumptions. c) At last year’s GRA the Corporation presented a report from Hewlett Packard wherein it was recommended that the Corporation spend $77 million in one-time IT expenditures, together with $29 million in ongoing annual expenditures. After review by the Corporation’s Board, the one-time expenditures were reduced to $71 million. Please advise of whether the Corporation continues to anticipate ongoing annual expenditures of $29 million relative to IT optimization, and if not, what ongoing annual expenditures does it now anticipate? d) Please advise of how many staff and/or outside consultants were expected to be dedicated to IT optimization at the time of last year’s GRA hearing and how those expectations have now changed given the IBM arrangement. PUB (MPI) 2-26 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-54, PUB/MPI 1-55(b) a) Please provide details on the IT optimization costs deferred in 2012/13 and 2013/14. b) Please explain how the Corporation is accounting for the $12.9 million in Transition and Mitigation work to IBM. c) Please provide an explanation for the material variances in corporate IT and hardware costs forecast this year versus last. PUB (MPI) 2-27 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-55(b) a) Please explain the impact on Compensation and Corporate IT Head count related to the IBM shared services arrangement. b) Please provide details on the IT Special Services costs forecast for 2013/13 and 2013/14 which have increased by over $1.2 million, or over 570%, from that forecast last year. Page | 11 PUB (MPI) 2-28 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-56(d) At last year’s GRA, Mr. Geffen of Gartner testified that Gartner would “insist” on seeing a project charter from MPI as that was a best practice, after which Gartner would “definitely” provide feedback in terms of content (page 1431 transcript). Why is Gartner not involved in a review of the project charter? PUB (MPI) 2-29 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-59 Please advise of how the results of the Risk Analysis would change if the actuarial reevaluation adjustments discussed in the response were removed from the analysis. PUB (MPI) 2-30 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-60 a) Further to the response to 60(b), please clarify the definition of “minimum regulatory capital requirement” that would apply if the Public Utilities Board were to decide to accept MPI’s recommendation of basing the target RSR level on the results of the DCAT investigation. b) Further to the response to 60(d), please provide the corresponding history of S&P/TSX index values underlying the “4 Year Total Return” information provided in this response. PUB (MPI) 2-31 Reference: Updated AI.11 Please confirm that the only changes made to the document relate to correcting the DCAT due to the calculation error. If that is not the case, please summarize the changes made in the updated AI.11 which resulted in a change in the proposed target and an increase in the risk profile. Page | 12 PUB (MPI) 2-32 Reference: 2012 DCAT Base Case (Amended), CAC/MPI 1-4 a) Please provide a rerun of the base scenario assuming an investment portfolio mix based on the actual portfolio mix as at February 28, 2012. b) Please provide a rerun of the equity decline adverse scenario assuming a 35% decline in equity values. PUB (MPI) 2-33 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-64 a) Please file the Executive Summary of the March 2012 report referenced at SM.5.8.1 entitled “Safer Roads, Saving Lives and Preventing Injuries”, such that the same will form part of the record in this proceeding. b) Please advise of the anticipated timeline for the hiring of a consultant to work with the Corporation to prepare recommendations for a potential Roadway Infrastructure Improvement Partnership Program, for the completion of recommendations relative to that program and for the business case relative to that program. c) Please file the Request for Proposal with respect to the hiring of a consultant referenced in (b) above. PUB (MPI) 2-34 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-65 a) What are the cost estimates relative to the two initiatives? b) In Order 162/11, the Board ordered that a technical conference take place with respect to road safety and loss prevention matters, at which the following significant issues were to be discussed: (i) rural versus urban differences in occupant restraint usage; (ii) rural versus urban differences in collision fatalities; Page | 13 (iii) the operation of off-road vehicles by minors in rural areas, including what guidelines or rules can be implemented with respect to the use and operation of ORVs by minors; (iv) wildlife claims costs; (v) motorcycle safety issues; (vi) traffic enforcement in rural and urban areas; (vii) targeting "problem" intersections or roadways; (viii) the possible role PAYD approaches could play in reducing traffic density; (ix) red light cameras and photo radar – linkages between incidents and accidents; and (x) the use of wireless devices while driving, whether hand-held or hands-free. Please advise of which of these issues the Corporation is concerned fall outside the Board’s legislated responsibilities. PUB (MPI) 2-35 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-68(f), (g) a) Given that the research in question could lead to initiatives pursuant to which claims costs would be reduced, why is the Corporation not prepared to ask for the information? b) Please advise of which Canadian jurisdictions have adopted the Transport Canada NCDB2 standards for collision reporting. c) Please advise of why Manitoba has not yet adopted the standards and when it is anticipated to do so. PUB (MPI) 2-36 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-70(b) Given that the research in question could lead to initiatives pursuant to which claims costs would be reduced, why is the Corporation not prepared to ask for the information? Page | 14 PUB (MPI) 2-37 Reference: PUB/MPI 1-73 a) Please confirm that the Corporation’s assertion regarding Manitoba’s low insurance rates relative to other provinces is based solely on all-perils vehicle coverage and without any regard for personal injury coverage either in Manitoba or other provinces. b) If the statement in (a) is correct, please explain why the Corporation does not consider injury coverage when assessing whether Manitobans will pay less for their automobile insurance than other major Canadian cities. PUB (MPI) 2-38 Reference: Road Safety There is legislation proposed in the United States pursuant to which Event Data Recorders, or EDRs (also known as a black box) would be required to be installed in all vehicles by 2015. Typically EDRs will record data on acceleration, deceleration, vehicle speed, engine speed and steering inputs and will store this data in memory leading up to a crash. See attached article from the Economist on June 23, 2012. Has the Corporation considered the use of EDRs to record the driving behaviour of Manitoba motorists? CAC (MPI) 2013 GRA Information Requests CAC (MPI) 2-1 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-2 Response Subject: DCAT methodology and the RSR Preamble: “Where necessary, the historical data is adjusted to exclude data that is not relevant to the Corporation’s future financial position (e.g. . .) Request: Please confirm that MPI intends to justify what historical data is included and excluded to support each adverse scenario. Page | 15 CAC (MPI) 2-2 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-3 Response (b) Subject: DCAT methodology and the RSR Preamble: “Examples where historical data may not be relevant: . . . (iii) hail experience from 10-20 years ago.” Request: a) Please explain why hail experience from 10-20 years ago is no longer relevant. b) Please provide statistical evidence that the incidence or extent of damaging hail has changed in the last 10 years compared to previous years. CAC (MPI) 2-3 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-4 Response (a) Subject: DCAT methodology Preamble: “ . . . one-year total returns on the TSX from 1919 to present . . . was assumed to follow a Normal distribution . . . ” Request: a) Please explain whether the assumption of a normal distribution for the one-year equity return was based on (i) a statistical comparison of alternative distributions or (ii) published results from the financial literature on the distribution of equity returns. b) If the assumption of a normal distribution for the one-year equity return was based on a statistical comparison of alternative distributions, please explain what statistical test/criterion was used. c) If the assumption of a normal distribution for the one-year equity return was based on published results from the financial literature on the distribution of equity returns, please cite the source(s). Page | 16 CAC (MPI) 2-4 Preamble: As of January 1, 2012 the Minimum Capital Test of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions requires the calculation of an interest rate risk margin. Request: Please calculate the amount of this margin for the Corporation as of the end of their financial year 2011/2012. CAC (MPI) 2-5 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-10 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-10: Request: a) Please explain why the Decline in Equity Markets scenario assumes a decline in equity asset value of 40% in 2013/14 with that reduced value remaining level for the entire forecast period when equity markets tend to rebound at least partially to their post drop values relatively quickly. b) Will the Corporation amend this scenario in next year’s DCAT report to make the assumptions more realistic? CAC (MPI) 2-6 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-12 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-12: Request: Please provide the results of a scenario assuming a 40% drop in equity asset values at year end 2012, recovering to base plan levels at all subsequent fiscal year ends. Page | 17 CAC (MPI) 2-7 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-12 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-12: Request: Please provide the results of a scenario assuming a 40% drop in equity asset values at year end 2012, recovering to 10% below base plan levels at all subsequent fiscal year ends. CAC (MPI) 2-8 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-12 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-12: Request: Please provide the impact on the Corporation’s financial results of a 40% drop in equity asset values at year end 2012, recovering to base plan levels at all subsequent fiscal year ends. In the same scenario assume increases to Government of Canada Bonds (market yield) at fiscal year-end 2012 of: a) One year rate of 100 bps b) Two year rate of 75 bps c) Three year rate of 50 bps d) Four year rate of 25 bps e) 5 year and longer rate of no change from base scenario Also assume the spread between Government of Canada and provincial government bonds increase by 25 bps, while the spread on corporations (bonds and preferred shares) increase by 50 bps. The Government of Canada yield curve and the provincial and corporate spreads are to remain above the base plan by the amounts noted above and unchanged through the end of the scenario. Page | 18 CAC (MPI) 2-9 Request: Would the Corporation agree that the RSR is meant to protect Manitoba’s drivers from large rate increases resulting from large shocks (due to changes in the financial markets, incurred losses, etc.) to the Corporation’s financial position? If so, would a drop in retained earnings due to such shocks not be acceptable with the expectation that retained earnings would build up again as results return to the level expected in the base plan? CAC (MPI) 2-10 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-14 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-14: Request: Please explain why the loss development factors would differ between the Combined Scenario and the Base Scenario. CAC (MPI) 2-11 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-15 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-15: Request: Please confirm that the Combined Scenario assumes a rebound of the equity markets to Base Scenario levels after the realization of the equity losses in 2013/14 and 2014/15. If confirmed please explain why the same logic was not used in the Decline in Equity Markets scenario. CAC (MPI) 2-12 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-16 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-16: Page | 19 Request: Please give the information required to run the figures in the table on the bottom of page 21 through to the figures shown in the results table on page 22 of the amended DCAT report. CAC (MPI) 2-13 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-17 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-17: Request: Please produce two tables like the first table shown on page 22 of the amended DCAT report. The first table will be the results with only the equity decline impact; the second table will be the results with only the incurred change impact. The two tables should be reconcilable to the table on page 22. CAC (MPI) 2-14 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-18 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-18 the impact of a large increase in incurreds on the investments placed and the investment income realized can be significant. Request: Please explain how the DCAT model is run if the financials are not linked together. Is there not a financial statement model that allows the scenarios to run through the financials? If not, please explain how the financial model works. CAC (MPI) 2-15 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1- 18 Preamble: The response indicates that the investment income impact was not modeled as part of this scenario because it was assumed to be insignificant. Request: Please elaborate and indicate the amount which would be considered insignificant. Page | 20 CAC (MPI) 2-16 Reference: Amended DCAT report Preamble: In reference to the Amended DCAT report Request: Please provide the derivation of the forecasted investment income for years 2012/13 through 2016/17 both before and after the amendments were made. CAC (MPI) 2-17 Reference: AI.11 Rate Stabilization Reserve Preamble: In reference to AI.11 Rate Stabilization Reserve Request: Please explain why the MCT and the DCAT are considered separately. It is standard industry practice for the DCAT to be performed with MCT results as the output. CAC (MPI) 2-18 Reference: AI.11 Rate Stabilization Reserve, page 6 Preamble: In reference to AI.11 Rate Stabilization Reserve, page 6, the Corporation writes that one of the cons of the MCT is that “It is a private sector test.” Request: Please explain why that fact would preclude the use of the MCT to set a target MCT ratio for the Corporation. Please be specific as to why the risk factors for the Corporation would be different than a private insurer writing only automobile lines of business. Page | 21 CAC (MPI) 2-19 Reference: AI.11 Rate Stabilization Reserve, page 6 Preamble: In reference to AI.11 Rate Stabilization Reserve, page 6, the Corporation writes that one of the cons of the MCT is that “The method uses the same risk factors for all companies, which may not be reflective of the Corporation’s risk level.” Request: Please explain why this would be a concern, given that different factors are used in the MCT for the claims liabilities of different lines of business. CAC (MPI) 2-20 Reference: AI.11, the amended DCAT report Preamble: In reference to AI.11, the amended DCAT report Request: Please provide Minimum Capital Test results for the base scenario and each of the adverse scenarios. CAC (MPI) 2-21 Request: Has the corporation considered using the results of the DCAT report to determine a target Minimum Capital Test result for the Corporation? If not, why not? CAC (MPI) 2-22 Request: Does the Corporation perform actual and projected Minimum Capital Test calculations? If so, please provide them. If not, please calculate and provide them. CAC (MPI) 2-23 Preamble: In reference to AI.11, the amended DCAT report, page 16 Page | 22 Request: Please explain the statement “Based on the latest PUB Order, we do not believe it is prudent to assume that these ‘excess’ funds are available for DCAT testing purposes.” CAC (MPI) 2-24 Request: Has the Corporation completed any research into Economic Capital and the use of internal models to determine capital requirements? If not, does it plan to do so? If it does not plan to do so, why not? CAC (MPI) 2-25 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-5 and TI.14 updated as at August 3, 2012 Preamble: The updated Statement of Basic Insurance Retained Earnings (TI.14) reports an amended MPI RSR Target (the only change from the previously filed TI.14) of $200 million for each year from 2012/13 through to 2016/17. In the response to CAC (MPI) 1-5 it indicates the upper limit of the PUB target for 2012/13 is $153 million. Request: Please clarify why the PUB RSR target has not been updated on the amended TI.14 from $151.1 million to $153.0 million. CAC (MPI) 2-26 Reference: Rate Stabilization Reserve Part 1 – AI.11 (Amended) Preamble: On page 4 it states that a ‘pro’ relating to the DCAT methodology in setting the RSR target is that it “Produces an opinion that is based on the RSR target set by the Manitoba Public Utilities Board”. Request: Please clarify this statement and explain how the DCAT methodology produces an opinion based on the RSR target set by the PUB. Page | 23 CAC (MPI) 2-27 Reference: Rate Stabilization Reserve Part 1 – AI.11 (Amended) Preamble: On page 7 it states that a ‘con’ relating to the Operational and Investment Risk Analysis methodology in setting the RSR target is that “The operational risk analysis is not based on plausible adverse events that could occur. Rather, it is based on events that have actually occurred in the past eighteen years”. Request: Please confirm that plausible adverse events formulated for the purposes of performing the DCAT analysis are based on historical events and projected to occur in the future at a magnitude below, at the same level or higher than they occurred in the past. If this cannot be confirmed please explain and contrast how historical events are applied differently between the DCAT and Risk Analysis methodologies. CAC (MPI) 2-28 Reference: Rate Stabilization Reserve Part 1 – AI.11 (Amended) Preamble: On page 7 it states that a ‘con’ relating to the Operational and Investment Risk Analysis methodology in setting the RSR target is that “Using Value-at-Risk may not be appropriate for a time horizon of 2.5 years”. Request: Please prepare and file an updated Operational and Investment Risk Analysis report using a time horizon of 1 year and indicate the required RSR target based on this analysis. CAC (MPI) 2-29 Reference: Rate Stabilization Reserve Part 1 – AI.11 (Amended) and CAC (MPI) 1-6 Preamble: On page 8 it states that a ‘con’ relating to the Percentage of Premium Method is “The method assumes that the Corporation’s risk level is a function of its annual premium level; however, the Corporation’s main risks are from changes to assets and liabilities which are significantly larger than annual premiums”. Page | 24 Request: Please confirm that over time changes in assets and liabilities are reflected in annual premium requirements. If this cannot be confirmed, please explain. CAC (MPI) 2-30 Reference: Rate Stabilization Reserve Part 1 – AI.11 (Amended) Preamble: On page 9 it states that a ‘con’ relating to the Percentage of Premium Method is “The indicated RSR range does not change when the Corporation’s risk profile changes”. Request: a) Please elaborate and explain in the event MPI’s (Basic Insurance) risk profile (positive or negative) changed year over year (actual, forecasted or projected) would the premium requirement change. In the response please provide examples. b) During the policy liability valuation process an adverse/favourable claims development trend change is detected by the actuary relating to car technology, please explain whether this could be considered a risk profile change. Please elaborate whether this adverse/favourable claims development trend change would be reflected in the Basic Insurance premium requirements by a change to the unpaid claims which would be reflected in claims incurred for actual, forecasted and projected. CAC (MPI) 2-31 Reference: Rate Stabilization Reserve Part 1 – AI.11 (Amended) Preamble: On page 9 it indicates as a benefit to using the DCAT to set the RSR target “Assists Management and the Public Utilities Board in the identification, measurement, and mitigation of key risks faced by the Corporation”. Request: Please elaborate on how specifically the DCAT will assist in the mitigation of key risks. Page | 25 CAC (MPI) 2-32 Reference: Rate Stabilization Reserve Part 1 – AI.11 (Amended) Preamble: On page 10 it states “RA/VaR: The indicated RSR is based completely on historical forecasting performance. Historical results are not at the same cost level as future experience and include events that are not reflective of future risk (e.g. $250 million reduction in claim liabilities)”. Request: a) Please confirm that the $250 million reduction in claim liabilities refers to the PIPP unpaid claims reduction in 2010/11. b) Please elaborate and explain whether MPI is implying that the DCAT methodology would have anticipated the referred to claim liability reduction. If yes, please illustrate by way of an example. CAC (MPI) 2-33 Reference: Rate Stabilization Reserve Part 1 – AI.11 (Amended) Preamble: On page 11 it states “It is a recognized method of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries and OSFI. DCAT: Is used by all Canadian Property and Casualty Insurers that report to OSFI”. Request: Please elaborate whether MPI is implying that the Basic Insurance line of business operates similar and is comparable to the Canadian Property and Casualty Insurance industry. CAC (MPI) 2-34 Reference: 2012 DCAT Report Part 2 – AI.11 (Amended) Preamble: On page 8 it is recommended “If the upper RSR target is not changed by the Public Utilities Board, Management should advise the Minister of Finance that the Corporation’s current exposure to equity assets is significantly greater than the amount of protection provided by the Public Utilities Board’s upper RSR target”. Page | 26 Request: a) Please explain how the asset mix recommended by the most recent asset liability study by AON mitigates negative exposure to various investment asset classes including equities. b) Please calculate the reduction, in terms of percentage and amount; equities would need to be reduced for the PUB upper RSR target to result in a satisfactory financial condition using the 2012 DCAT plausible adverse scenarios. CAC (MPI) 2-35 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-7 (b) Preamble: With respect to IFRS 4 Phase II, the response indicates an increase in unpaid claims of $90 to $100 million based on the “risk free rate” (the average yield on a portfolio of Government of Canada bonds with similar duration to the claim liabilities). In addition, the Corporation currently holds an interest rate provision for adverse deviation of 125 basis points or approximately $159 million. Request: Please elaborate whether the Corporation expects the financial impact of implementing IFRS 4 Phase II for Basic Insurance to be relatively immaterial. CAC (MPI) 2-36 Reference: Gartner CIO Scorecard – AI.19 Preamble: On page 1 it states “Application Optimization: Development work has commenced on reducing the risk of outages from enterprise systems on unsupported versions”. Request: Please provide a list and commentary of the unsupported enterprise systems affecting Basic Insurance. Page | 27 CAC (MPI) 2-37 Reference: Gartner CIO Scorecard – AI.19 Preamble: On page 1 it states “Infrastructure Optimization: Data Centre Network equipment that was purchased will be re-purposed and shipped to the IBM Data Centre locations”. Request: a) Please provide a list of the equipment purchased and the related costs for the Data Centre Network before outsourcing this function to IBM. b) Please elaborate whether IBM reimbursed MPI for the Data Centre Network equipment purchased by MPI and shipped to IBM or whether the monthly service fees were adjusted for the MPI purchased Data Centre Network equipment. CAC (MPI) 2-38 Reference: Gartner CIO Scorecard – AI.19 Preamble: On page 1 the report refers to “Driving Ahead in Real Time” (DART) which is a project to decommission the legacy Driver Licensing System. Request: a) Please provide a summary overview of the legacy Driver Licensing System. b) Please file a copy of the project roadmap and estimated costs for decommission the DL system. c) Please confirm that the current functionality (currently needed functionality) of the legacy Driver Licensing System will be incorporated into AOL. CAC (MPI) 2-39 Reference: Gartner CIO Scorecard – AI.19 Preamble: On page 1 the report refers to a “Broker Refresh Initiative”. Page | 28 Request: Please provide an estimate of the expected costs of the Broker Refresh Initiative and elaborate whether the brokers share in the broker refresh initiative costs. CAC (MPI) 2-40 Reference: Gartner CIO Scorecard – AI.19 Preamble: On page 1 the report refers to an operating initiative “MPI/HP Process transition”. Request: Please elaborate and explain the MPI/HP Process transition. CAC (MPI) 2-41 Reference: Gartner CIO Scorecard – AI.19 Preamble: On page 2 the report states “The comparison to other Team Player organizations saw that MPI’s Cost Containment and Business Process Management capabilities were less mature and offer opportunities for MPI to enhance its IT and business efficiency and deliver further value to Manitobans”. Request: Please provide a general elaboration on the type of IT and business efficiency actions MPI might undertake based on this statement by Gartner. CAC (MPI) 2-42 Reference: Gartner CIO Scorecard – AI.19 Preamble: On page 3 the report states “MPI’s Revenue per Company Employee is considerably lower, which aligns with MPI’s mission to return premium dollars to Manitobans”. According to the graph on page 3 the Revenue per Company Employee is: MPI $537,646 Peer $915,902 (plus 70%) Insurance Industry Average (CAD) $1,110,573 (plus 106%) Page | 29 Request: a) Please demonstrate, by way of an example that MPI’s significantly lower Revenue per Company Employee is solely due to MPI’s mission to return premium dollars to Manitobans. b) Can MPI comment whether MPI requires more employees to provide a higher standard of service and administer activities different from its Peer group. CAC (MPI) 2-43 Reference: Gartner CIO Scorecard – AI.19 Preamble: On page 5 the report states “MPI’s IT FTEs to Company FTEs dropped by 14% as total IT headcount was reduced from 356 to 313 since 2010/1”. Request: Please comment whether the reduction in IT staff of 43 FTEs left MPI or were they redeployed in a non IT department within MPI. CAC (MPI) 2-44 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-23 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-23 Request: Please explain why this loss ratio was chosen when the loss ratio chosen for other coverages was chosen based on the fitted expected loss ratio and the ultimate projected loss ratio. CAC (MPI) 2-45 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-24 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-24 Page | 30 Request: Please confirm that the IBNR selected would be $5.6 million if the latest 6 volume weighted averages were selected through development period 92-104 months with no change in the selected initial loss ratios. If not confirmed, please give the calculated amount. Please give the amount by which this calculated amount differs from the IBNR selected in the October 31, 2011 actuarial report. CAC (MPI) 2-46 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-29 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-29 Request: Has the Corporation completed any sort of consistency check to ensure that the loss ratios assumed in the actuarial report line up reasonably well with the overall Basic budgeted loss ratio? If so, please outline how the consistency check was undertaken. CAC (MPI) 2-47 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-29 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-29 Request: Please complete the table below. Coverage 2011/12 Bornhuetter Ferguson Selected Loss Ratio Bodily Injury Property Damage Collision Comprehensive Accident Benefits - Weekly Indemnity Accident Benefits - Other (Indexed) Accident Benefits - Other (Non-indexed) Basic 2012/13 Forecasted Loss Ratio Page | 31 CAC (MPI) 2-48 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-31 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-31 Request: Please give the actual incurred amount for the Comprehensive coverage in the 2011/12 year and the expected incurred amount based on the incurred development factors chosen in the October 31, 2010 actuarial report. CAC (MPI) 2-49 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-40 and CAC (MPI) 1-41 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s responses to CAC (MPI) 1-40 and CAC (MPI) 141 Request: If the 116-ultimate factor was chosen to make the selected 116-ultimate factor equal to the 116—paid to tabular ultimate factor please explain why it would be deemed necessary to load the unpaid further for development periods 116 to 236 months. CAC (MPI) 2-50 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-42 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-42, the initial incurred tail factor of 1.06 as described on page 26 of the October 31, 2011 actuarial report is chosen by judgment. Request: Please explain what factors went into this judgmental selection. Page | 32 CAC (MPI) 2-51 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-43 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-43 Request: Is there any historical basis for the 1.75% growth factor for the paid tail factor for Accident Benefits – Other Indexed shown on page 26 of the October 31, 2011 actuarial report? Please provide the basis for this calculation. CAC (MPI) 2-52 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1-46 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to CAC (MPI) 1-46 Request: a) Can the Corporation confirm that the 2005 analysis is still being used to determine the initial incurred tail factor of 1.06 referenced on page 26 of the October 31, 2011 actuarial report? b) If confirmed, has consideration been given to producing a more current analysis like the one done in 2005? CAC (MPI) 2-53 Preamble: The Quebec government insurer has data going back decades on the Bodily Injury coverages that are handled by the government in that province. Request a) Has the Corporation considered using external data, such as the Quebec experience data, in the determination of tail factors for the longer tail lines such as Weekly Indemnity? b) If not, please explain why not, given that the data would be very useful. Page | 33 CAC (MPI) 2-54 Reference: Innovation Request: a) Please explain the process by which the staff is encouraged to think creatively and how the results of this process used to create value for basic policyholders. b) Please explain how the highest-potential employees are identified and how are they motivated, incented and engaged. c) Please explain how the human-capital model has been adapted to address the next generation of employees to continue to create a competitive advantage for basic policyholders. CAC (MPI) 2-55 Reference: TI.9. Request: a) Please file a copy of the current corporate organization chart, detail and explain any changes that have occurred since last year. b) Please prepare and file a descriptive analysis of the purpose, mandate duties and responsibilities of each division/function reporting to the CEO. CAC (MPI) 2-56 Reference: Quarterly Financial Report 1st Quarter Preamble: On page 5 the report states “Claims costs for the three months ended May 31, 2012 increased by $13.2 million compared to last year due primarily to bodily injury claims incurred that increased by $7.1 million and physical damage claims incurred rose by $5.6 million. An increase in severity of both bodily injury and physical damage claims contributed to the increase in claims costs”. Page | 34 Request: Please prepare a chart comparing bodily injury and physical damage actual and budgeted claims incurred for the first quarter of 2012/13. CAC (MPI) 2-57 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1 – 65 Request: Please explain the language at the bottom of page 63 of the 2011 Annual Report were it states “Write-down (reverse write-down)” with brackets around the 2012 value of $6,515. CAC (MPI) 2-58 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1 – 74 and PUB (MPI) 1- 20 Request: With reference to Claims Incurred Expenses, please provide a schedule by expense type for actual expenses for the fiscal year 2010/11 and 2011/12. CAC (MPI) 2-59 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to PUB (MPI) 1-28 Request: Please provide the number of exposures, incurred losses and calculated relativity for each rate group shown on the graph PIPP Cost per Unit Relativities by Rate Group after PIPP Cost Allocation. CAC (MPI) 2-60 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to PUB (MPI) 1-33: Request: Please explain why claims expense is increasing at a significantly faster pace than claims incurred or number of claims. Page | 35 CAC (MPI) 2-61 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to PUB (MPI) 1-44 (b) Request: a) Please provide a table indicating by jurisdiction (for which rate comparisons were done) whether the jurisdiction had family protection that was part of the automobile package or whether it had to be purchased by endorsement. b) Please provide, by jurisdiction, how many competitors were used in the comparisons and how the choice of these competitor’s was made. c) Were the premiums used in the comparisons an average of many competitor’s premiums? If so, please list the premiums individually for each of the profiles. d) For each of the profiles please provide a table indicating, by coverage, the premium of the various jurisdictions and whether the coverage was mandatory or optional in those jurisdictions. (Please explain, in detail, the process by which the premiums of the various jurisdictions were obtained.) CAC (MPI) 2-62 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to PUB (MPI) 1-45 (a) Request: Please provide a table with each element of the percentage of premium dollars returned to motorists formula shown separately for each year 2000 to 2010. Page | 36 CAC (MPI) 2-63 Preamble: In reference to the Corporation’s response to PUB (MPI) 1-74 Request: Would the Corporation not agree that persons living in the same household can sell a vehicle for a minimal amount to the person in the household with the best DSR rating and drive that vehicle with no restrictions? CAC (MPI) 2-64 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1 – 93 (Expense Allocation Methodologies—New vs. Old) Preamble: MPI’s response to comparing the new vs. old allocation methodologies for past fiscal years indicates that this analysis has no bearing on the reasonableness of the financial projections or actuarial modeling used to determine rates. Request: a) The question is how can an independent regulator derive a satisfactory level of comfort without a set of historical comparisons which demonstrate a consistent set of results between the new and old allocation methodologies? b) Please reconsider providing a response to the question posed in CAC (MPI) 1 -93. CAC (MPI) 2-65 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1 – 94 (Cost Allocation Methodologies) Preamble: The response to CAC (MPI) 1 -94 provides the following allocation percentages Basic Insurance: Fiscal Year 2009/10 Four-Year Rolling Net Claims Incurred % 85.0% Gross Premiums Written % 81.5% Difference % 3.5% 2010/11 83.6% 81.6% 2.0% 2011/12 84.2% 81.3% 2.9% Page | 37 Request: a) Should the ‘Four-Year Rolling Net Claims Incurred %’ be used, the allocated expenses to Basic Insurance would be higher by the percentage points shown in the ‘Difference %’ column. Please calculate and provide the dollar values for the allocated expenses to Basic Insurance using the above percentages in the following table: Fiscal Year 2009/10 Expenses Allocated using the Four-Year Rolling Net Claims Incurred % ($000) $ Expenses Allocated using the Gross Premiums Written % ($000) $ Difference ($000) $ 2010/11 2011/12 b) Please provide comments with respect to the financial materiality of the ‘Difference’ in relation to the overall financial condition of Basic Insurance in the context of rate setting. CAC (MPI) 2-66 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1 – 116 (2011 Annual Report page 45) Preamble: Per the response to CAC (MPI) 1 -116 it indicates that the unearned premiums are reported correctly on the Statement of Operations. On the Annual Report it reports the following: Account Description February 29, 2012 February 28, 2011 $(17,735) $(8,726) Increase (decrease) in gross unearned premiums Request: a) For greater clarity please confirm that gross unearned premiums have increased by $17,735,000 for the year ended February 29, 2012 and that the brackets should surround the word ‘Increase’ and not ‘decrease’. b) On Note 14 of the 2011 Annual Report Unearned fees are reported in the amount of $4,283,000 as at February 29, 2012. For greater clarity please provide a detailed schedule of the type of fees included in this amount. Page | 38 CAC (MPI) 2-67 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1 – 121 Preamble: In response to CAC (MPI) 1 – 121 (a) MPI appears to be outsourcing its data centre operations to IBM. Request: Please provide a detailed analysis of the organizational and financial impact on Basic Insurance for the fiscal years 2012/13 and 2013/14 relative to reductions in IT FTEs, operational expenses and IT equipment costs as a result of outsourcing the data centre operations to IBM. CAC (MPI) 2-68 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1 – 125 (b) Preamble: The response to CAC (MPI) 1 -125 (b) indicates that the future investment in people and processes, not just technology has no bearing on the rate application before the PUB. Request: a) Please confirm that future investment in people and processes result in either increase or decreases in operating expenses contained in the financial projections filed in the rate application before the PUB. b) Please reconsider providing a response to CAC (MPI) 1 -125 (b). CAC (MPI) 2-69 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1 – 135 Request: Please indicate the approximate date the Information Technology Optimization Initiative Roadmap will be completed. Page | 39 CAC (MPI) 2-70 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1 – 136 Preamble: The response to the Bodily Injury Improvement Initiative (BI3) benefits realization status request indicates that MPI has no further information to that filed last year. Request: a) From a public interest perspective, how can the PUB Board assure itself that the promised financial benefits, which were projected to accrue to Basic Insurance, have in fact occurred? b) Please prepare and file a summary of the financial benefits projected to accrue to Basic Insurance from the implementation of BI3 and compare this summary to the financial benefits that have occurred to date. CAC (MPI) 2-71 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1 – 142 Preamble: Per the 2011 Annual Report (page 44), as at February 29, 2012, the deferred policy acquisition costs are reported as $40,547,000 and per Note 7 (page 63) the amount relating to commissions is $27,245,000 ($34,321,000 - $7,076,000 write-down). Request: a) Please provide a detailed commentary as to the ‘recoverability’ of the deferred policy acquisition costs asset relating to commissions of $27,245,000. b) Please provide a detailed commentary as to whether IAS 36 (Impairment of Assets) considers non recoverable deferred policy acquisition costs as an impaired asset to be written off against operations. Page | 40 CAC (MPI) 2-72 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1 – 151 (b) Per the response to CAC (MPI) 1 – 151 (b) it indicates the following expenses are not included in ‘Initiative Related Expenses (Implementation)’ on TI.13: IBM Data Centre Licence Fees/Maintenance Depreciation of Capital $4,045,000 $401,000 $1,384,000 Request: a) Please indicate whether these expenses form part of Normal Operations Expenses or Initiative Related Expenses (Ongoing) on TI.13. b) For greater clarity please explain why the expense reporting contained in TI.7 and TI.13 is not consistent. CAC (MPI) 2-73 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1 – 156 Preamble: Per the response to CAC (MPI) 1 – 156 the Appointed Actuary Valuation fees are budgeted to increase to $123,773 in 2012/13, an increase of 69.5% over the previous year of $73,027. Request: Please provide a detailed explanation for this significant increase. CAC (MPI) 2-74 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1 – 173 (d) Preamble: The response to CAC (MPI) 1 – 173 (d) indicates that at February 29, 2012 the Unpaid Claims were valued at $1,485 million and the fixed income portfolio was valued at $1,532 million. Page | 41 Request: Please elaborate whether this mismatch of $47 million is reasonable and not material as it relates to the financial condition and resources of the Corporation. CAC (MPI) 2-75 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1 – 176 Request: Please elaborate whether there were any changes made to the 2011-2015 Corporate Strategic Plan relative to the 2012-2016 Corporate Strategic Plan. CAC (MPI) 2-76 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1 – 165 (Claims and Operating Expenses Statistics) Request: Please recalculate Tables 1 through 4 using Claims Expenses (excluding Road Safety Expenses) and Operating Expenses (excluding Regulatory Appeal Expenses) as reported on TI.7.B in the current Rate Application. For values prior to fiscal year 2010/11 please use the values from the similar TI.7.B schedule from prior Rate Applications. CAC (MPI) 2-77 Reference: CAC (MPI) 1 – 164 (Performance Indicators) Preamble: The following table has been updated with information from CAC (MPI) 1-164 Schedule 1 and PUB (MPI) 1-32 (a): Page | 42 Indicator Notes 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 Operating Expense Ratio i. 14.2% 15.0% 15.0% 16.0% 16.2% Claims Expense Ratio ii. 14.1% 14.7% 14.8% 14.8% 15.2% Loss Ratio iii. 82.8% 79.0% 74.5% 70.9% 44.4% Combined Ratio iv. 111.1% 108.6% 104.3% 101.8% 75.8% Investment Income Ratio v. 16.1% 16.4% 0.5% 11.6% 11.2% Investment Yield vi. 6.3% 4.0% (5.8)% 13.7% 8.4% Operating Expense/Policy vii. $48 $50 $48 $54 $65 Claims Expense/Claims viii. $409 $416 $487 $482 $487 Policies/Support Employee ix. 2,485 2,499 2,556 2,446 2,590 Claims/Claims Employee x. 253 266 233 234 245 Premiums/Policy xi. $776 $777 $794 $807 $804 Insurance Costs/Capita xii. $553 $566 $593 $606 $615 2011/2 2012/3 2013/4 2014/5 2015/6 Indicator Notes Operating Expense Ratio i. 17.0% 16.3% 15.6% 15.5% 15.3% Claims Expense Ratio ii. 16.1% 16.7% 16.6% 16.3% 16.2% Loss Ratio iii. 80.4% 80.4% 82.6% 81.4% 80.6% Combined Ratio iv. 112.8% 113.5% 114.9% 113.2% 112.0% Investment Income Ratio v. 13.3% 10.5% 11.4% 11.7% 12.0% Investment Yield vi. 6.4% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% Operating Expense/Policy vii. $61 $64 $64 $66 $66 Claims Expense/Claims viii. $541 $562 $558 $567 $581 Policies/Support Employee ix. 2,560 2,716 2,816 2,866 2,916 Claims/Claims Employee x. 241 240 249 253 256 Premiums/Policy xi. $790 $753 $782 $807 $830 Insurance Costs/Capita xii. $624 $596 $619 $641 $663 i. Operating Expense Ratio (%) (The numerator to include the following—commissions, operating expenses, premium taxes and regulatory/appeal expenses.) The ratio of operating expenses to net premiums earned measures the company’s operational efficiency in underwriting its book of business. Page | 43 ii. Claims Expense Ratio (%) (The numerator to include claims expenses and loss prevention/road safety expenses.) The ratio of claims expense to net premium earned measures the company’s efficiency in adjudicating claims. iii. Loss Ratio (%) The ratio of claims incurred to net premiums earned measures the company’s underlying profitability, or loss experience, on its book of business. iv. Combined Ratio (%) The sum of the loss, operating expense and claims expense ratios, not reflecting investment income or income taxes, measures the company’s overall underwriting profitability, and a combined ratio of less than 100 indicates an underwriting profit. v. Investment Income Ratio (%) The ratio of investment income to net premiums earned measures the contribution of investment income toward the combined ratio in measuring the company’s overall net profitability. vi. Investment Yield (%) To be calculated on current market value basis as per Annual Reports. vii. Operating Expense/Policy ($) The operating expense/policy dollar value measures the cost efficiency or activity cost of issuing a policy. Page | 44 viii.Claims Expense/Claims ($) The claims expense/claims dollar value measures the cost efficiency or activity cost of adjudicating a claim. ix. Policies/Support Employee (#) The policies/support employee number value measures the number of policies a support employee can handle or the number of support employees required to manage policies effectively and efficiently. x. Claims/Claims Employee (#) The claims/claims employee number value measures the number of claims a claims employee can handle or the number of claims employees required to manage claims effectively and efficiently. xi. Premiums/Policy ($) The premiums/policy dollar value measures net premiums written changes per policy, year over year, even if there is no premium rate increases or decreases. xii. Insurance Costs/Capita ($) The insurance costs/capita dollar value measures net premiums written (basic insurance) changes per capita based on the provincial population providing a social or public cost indicator. Request: a) The Insurance Costs/Capita changed from last year from 2007 and onward. Please provide the detailed calculations (numerator and denominator) relating to the current ratio calculation compared to last year’s ratio. Please explain the reason for the change. b) Please confirm that the information is correct in the above table. Page | 45 c) Please elaborate on the magnitude and cause of the year over year changes in the above indicators. d) ICBC in its 2011 Annual Report on page 25, to measure its actual to target financial stability to achieve streamlined, efficient, and cost-effective systems and processes, uses the following measures: Combined ratio Loss ratio Investment Return (ICBC portfolio less policy benchmark equals excess) Please elaborate on the usefulness and applicability of using the ICBC listed financial performance measures for Basic Insurance at MPI. CAC (MPI) 2-78 Preamble: The following Statements of Financial Position as at February 29, 2012 and Statements of Operations for the year ended February 29, 2012 were summarized from AI.7. The statements summarize the relative financial information for Basic Insurance; Ext., SRE and DVA; and Corporate in financial statement format. Page | 46 Manitoba Public Insurance Statements of Financial Position As At February 29, 2012 $000 Basic Insurance Assets Cash and investments Equity investments Investment property Due from other insurance companies Accounts receivable Prepaid expenses Deferred policy acquisition costs Reinsurers' share of unearned premiums Reinsurers' share of unpaid claims Property and equipment Deferred development costs Ext., SRE, DVA Corporate $ 1,308,214 424,986 161,186 1,956 222,487 699 22,958 2,779 23,782 85,275 33,736 $ 242,392 77,689 29,804 589 81,668 297 17,589 561 7,509 37,991 3,063 $ $ 2,288,058 $ 499,152 $ 2,787,210 $ 4,718 32,891 3,137 393,285 14,568 207,912 1,368,857 $ 1,073 24,958 1,399 86,307 6,541 93,349 116,588 $ Total Liabilities $ 2,025,368 $ 330,215 $ 2,355,583 Equity Retained Earnings Rate Stabilization Reserve Retained Earnings Extension Development Fund $ 155,700 57,983 213,683 49,007 $ 139,060 20,769 159,829 9,108 $ Total Assets Liabilities Due to other insurance companies Accounts payable and accrued liabilities Financing lease obligation Unearned premiums and fees Provision for employee current benefits Provision for employee future benefits Provision for unpaid claims $ Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income $ $ 1,550,606 502,675 190,990 2,545 304,155 996 40,547 3,340 31,291 123,266 36,799 5,791 57,849 4,536 479,592 21,109 301,261 1,485,445 155,700 197,043 20,769 373,512 58,115 Total Equity $ 262,690 $ 168,937 $ Total Liabilities and Equity $ 2,288,058 $ 499,152 $ 2,787,210 Total equity as a % of total assets 11.48% 431,627 33.84% 15.49% Page | 47 Manitoba Public Insurance Statements of Operations For the Year Ended February 29, 2012 $000 Basic Insurance Earned Revenues Gross premiums written Premiums ceded to reinsurers Net premiums written Change in gross unearned premiums Change in reinsurers' share of unearned premiums Net premiums earned Service fees and other revenue The Drivers and Vehicles Act operations recovery 786,632 (6,679) 779,953 (13,647) (4,629) 761,677 18,736 - $ $ 780,413 $ $ $ $ 619,110 (7,073) 612,037 109,760 12,982 $ 734,779 $ $ 57,465 41,033 22,766 3,423 Total Expenses $ Underwriting income (loss) Investment income Gain on disposal of property Net income (loss) from annual operations Total Earned Revenues Claims Costs Direct claims incurred Claims incurred ceded to reinsurers Net claims incurred Claims expense Loss prevention/Road safety Total Claims Costs Expenses Operating Commissions Premium taxes Regulatory/Appeal $ Ext., SRE, DVA 180,933 (1,346) 179,587 (4,088) (1,791) 173,708 6,310 27,325 $ 207,343 $ 987,756 $ $ 710,002 (8,152) 701,850 132,325 15,828 115,224 $ 850,003 $ 56,089 36,404 5,305 34 $ 113,554 77,437 28,071 3,457 124,687 $ 97,832 $ 222,519 $ (79,053) 101,243 88 $ (5,713) 17,732 3,126 $ (84,766) 118,975 3,214 $ 22,278 $ 15,145 $ 37,423 $ $ Surplus distribution Net income (loss) after surplus distribution $ $ $ 90,892 (1,079) 89,813 22,565 2,846 (14,120) $ Other Comprehensive income (loss) for the period Total Comprehensive income (loss) Corporate 8,158 (15,917) $ $ (24,075) $ $ 15,145 (14,120) $ (1,362) $ 13,783 967,565 (8,025) 959,540 (17,735) (6,420) 935,385 25,046 27,325 23,303 (25,437) $ (2,134) Request: a) Please confirm that the values in the above statements are correct. Page | 48 b) Please confirm that the relative financial leverage to finance assets, as measured by total equity as a % of total assets, of Basic Insurance is approximately one-third of nonbasic insurance operations. CMMG (MPI) 2013 GRA Information Requests CMMG (MPI) 2-1 With reference to the data in the table in CMMG (MPI) 1-1, what loss rates does the Corporation calculate to be break even given the load for claims costs and other expenses? Please provide a detailed calculation showing how the Corporation sees a 75% loss ratio as “breaking even” (i.e calculate other expenses in percentages showing total). CMMG (MPI) 2-2 With respect to the table referred to above, how ultimate are the 2011 losses? What methodology and calculations have been applied to make the actual total losses of $5,528,974.00 be more ultimate? What percentage of further adverse deviation/deterioration can be expected from the $5,528,974.00? CMMG (MPI) 2-3 The Corporation’s response to PUB (MPI) indicates the Corporation was not impressed with its 2011 pilot study of urban speed enforcement. However, the pilot study had nothing to do with rural collision prevention initiatives such as barriers or corridors. Please indicate if the Corporation plans to do any studies of that type. CMMG (MPI) 2-4 With reference to CMMG 1-5, please calculate the approximate costs of a Whiteshell corridor along Highway 1 by using the information the Corporation acquired in its rough costing of the Highway 59 fencing near Birds Hill that was estimated last year at approximately $700,000.00. Page | 49 CMMG (MPI) 2-5 With reference to CMMG 1-6, please confirm these were no serious losses (as defined by the Corporation) for motorcycles in 2011. Please confirm this will likely be true on an ultimate basis. CMMG (MPI) 2-6 With reference to CMMG 1-9, which motorcycle dealer or repair shop was involved with negotiations of the current labour rate? Is it not true that the ATA & the MMDA represent only car dealers and autobody shops? CMMG (MPI) 2-7 In regards to the Corporation’s answer in CMMG 1-9, there must be estimating bulletins or similar guidelines available to MPI estimating staff. Please produce any such notices, guidelines, instructions, etc. that relate to this issue. CMMG (MPI) 2-8 With reference to CMMG 1-15, please indicate the aggregate premium dollar difference between the increase sought and the increase approved per year for those years in the table. Please also determine the cumulative effect given that a reduction one year leads to a smaller premium for the application of the next years increase. CMMG (MPI) 2-9 A portion of the driver’s licence fee is insurance. How is this proportioned among liability, collision and PIPP? How is PIPP portion allocated among vehicle types? CMMG (MPI) 2-10 How many and what percentage of vehicles are registered in Manitoba, which do not have to pay PIPP? Page | 50 CMMG (MPI) 2-11 What is the total number of Manitobans receiving PIPP benefits? What is the average annual cost of these claims? CMMG (MPI) 2-12 Over the most recent 5 year period, how many PIPP claims involve licenced drivers who are non-vehicle owners? What is their proportion of total PIPP costs? CMMG (MPI) 2-13 Over the most recent 5 year period, how many PIPP claims involve unlicenced non-vehicle owners? What is their proportion of total PIPP costs? CMMG (MPI) 2-14 If a bicyclist is involved in a collision with an Autopac insured vehicle and it is the vehicle’s fault, does the cyclist receive PIPP benefits? What is the same scenario with respect to snowmobiles and ATS’s? CMMG (MPI) 2-15 If a bicyclist is involved in a collision with an Autopac insured vehicle and it is the cyclist’s fault, does the cyclist receive PIPP benefits? What is the same scenario with respect to snowmobiles and ATS’s? CMMG (MPI) 2-16 If PIPP costs were applied evenly across all vehicle types, what would the resulting affect be on average premiums for all vehicle classes? For private passenger? For motorcyclists? Page | 51 CMMG (MPI) 2-17 If PIPP costs were applied evenly across all vehicle types, and included all excluded vehicle classes (i.e Interprovincial trucking etc.) what would the resulting affect be on average premiums for all vehicle classes? For private passenger? For motorcyclists? Page | 52
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