Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Mountain Development in the Andes
Kathmandu, Nepal, 4 April 2012
International Expert Consultation on Mountains and Climate Change
Regional context
Climate change context
Future predictions
Climate in the Andes
• Overall, temperature increase • Complex climate system with rainfall, seasonality uncertain
extreme natural gradients in temperature and precipitation
• Dominated by climate systems over Pacific Ocean, Amazon and Caribbean
• Altitudinal gradients (temperature)
• N‐S and E‐W gradients (precipitation)
• Seasonality more pronounced in south
• Lack of information on current climate conditions (e.g. rainfall over the Andes at suitable scales for modelling)
Regions where >80% of models coincide in direction of change of precipitation
Buytaert & Julián Ramírez‐
Villegas in press
Impacts of climate change
Biomes – vertical shifts (higher biomes only loose, lower ones loose and
Región A2.1039
gain)
Pérdida
Estable
Ganancia
200
0
100
2
AreaKm 
300
•
Tovar et al. in press PNAS
•
GCr
Par
PnH
PnX
BMs
BMsd
Species range shifts in the
Andes
9457 Plants (shaded)
1555 Birds (non-shaded)
Ramírez‐Villegas et al. Unlimited dispersal
No dispersal
Arb
PrP
Impacts of climate change
• Water availability (how much and when)
 Local variation – changes in water availability due to changes in rainfall seasonality and regulatory capacity of ecosystems and glaciers
 Influence of glaciers: ‐ In the north, paramos most important factor for water regulation throughout year
‐ Glaciers (and puna) more important in the Central Andes for maintaining water production during the dry seasons, e.g. maintaining grazing systems
 Climate change effects exacerbated (or surpassed?) by land use change, poor governance, inadequate policies, insufficient infrastructure, inefficient use and recycling of water Relative change (%)
in water availability
for combined
impacts (temp +
rainfall) under
climate change
(Buytaert et al 2010)
Other drivers of change
• Often difficult to
distinguish between
effects of different
drivers (e.g. changes
in land use and
climate change in
terms of water
regulation)
 Combined effects
 Integral, flexible
policies
Photo: J. Voss
Other drivers of change in the Andes
 Population growth
 Especially in urban areas
▫ % in urban areas in Andean
countries
▫ 2010: 69% to 91%
▫ 1990: 55% to 87%
▪ Mountain cities - higher
population density
▪ Lowland population (e.g. Lima)
on Pacific coast depend on
Andes for water
▪ Concentration of demand for
water in high Andean cities
(e.g. Bogota, Quito, La Paz)
>= 3500
Andean countries urban area pop. by altitude
2500 ‐ 3499
1500 ‐ 2499
500 ‐ 1499
0 ‐ 499
0.0E+00
2.0E+07
4.0E+07
6.0E+07
CIESIN, 2011
8.0E+07
Other drivers of change in the Andes
16
Production (tonnes) / Area harvested (ha)
300,000,000
14
250,000,000
12
200,000,000
150,000,000
Production
10
Area harvested
8
Fertilizer use
6
100,000,000
4
50,000,000
2
0
0
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
▪ Agricultural expansion (e.g.
influenced by bilateral trade
agreements)
▪ Upward shift in agriculture
(due to more suitable areas at
higher altitudes)
▪ Increase in agricultural area
and harvest (agro-chemicals,
lowland especially, but water
from Andes)
▪ Land degradation – loss of
capacity for water regulation
18
350,000,000
Tonnes/1000 ha of agricultural land
 Change in land cover and use
Other drivers of change in the Andes
 Change in land cover
and use
 Mining (expansion, continued
reliance of economic systems
on extractive industries)
 Deforestation, ecosystem
degradation
▫ South America: largest net loss
of forest 1990-2010 (FAO
2010)
▫ Decrease from 38% to 35% of
forested area lost 1990 - 2010
Cuesta et al 2009
Progress in Sustainable Mountain Development •
Institutional frameworks and policy ‐ decentralization, participation
• e.g. Local government (e.g. environmental authorities, water committees), regional policies, citizen’s participation in budgets, decision‐making
•
Implementation of International Agreements (e.g. CBD, UNFCCC)
• International to local level ‐ strategies, programmes, plans
• NBSAPs – to regional level
• Adaptation actions (regional, national, local)
• Increase in protected areas (12% Andes), other conservation areas (designation process leads to awareness, effectiveness?), management instruments
Regional Integration – Andean Community
• e.g. Regional Biodiversity Strategy, Andean Environmental Agenda
•
Progress in Sustainable Mountain Development •
Specific Mountain Initiatives
• Ramsar Wetland Strategy, Vicuña Convention, Andes Initiative, National mountain committees (Mountain Partnership), AMA, CONDESAN
• Many events, meetings, conferences on mountain issues and development
•
Other trends
• increased focus on institutionalization of learnings
• integration of development and conservation issues
• increased focus on climate change and recently disaster management
• changes in international cooperation as % of GDP
Key policy actions
• Protect mountain ecosystems to safeguard water supplies
e.g. Paramos, puna, legal protection, mining no‐go zones, basin‐wide responsibility for strengthening upstream‐down‐stream partnerships
• Climate change adaptation addressed specifically for mountains
regional, national and local policies with flexible approaches (adaptive management) given uncertainty, further develop water management policies
• Innovate agricultural production in mountain areas
recuperate knowledge (especially of native products), work towards food security, protection of biodiversity with responsible agriculture, market access
• Transform current mining methods with responsible mining codes
policy formulation, push for more efficient use of mining products
Key policy actions
• Effective communication mechanisms within government
i.e. between government departments (with overlapping jurisdictions); between government levels (local and national)
• Use regional cooperation mechanisms to share and replicate experiences
e.g. where decentralization and increased citizens’ participation has been beneficial to sustainable mountain development
• Improve coordination/communication to ensure knowledge generated is applied to SMD
e.g. between state universities in mountain areas, research NGOs, government bodies
• Implement decision support systems at local and regional levels
e.g. for water management and climate change adaptation
Thank you
[email protected]
http://www.condesan.org
Creating
joint solutions
from our diversity
using our knowledge
in harmony with the environment