Information class: Non sensitive Financial and Risk Policy 2017 Adopted by the Board of the Debt Office on 13 December 2016 Reg. no 2016/1069 Changed by the Board of Debt Office on 17 February 2017 Contents Introduction 3 1 Management of risks in the Debt Office 4 2 Management and payment of the central government debt process 5 3 Retail market borrowing process 10 4 Central government liquidity management process 11 5 Government guarantees and lending process 13 6 Credit risks 15 7 Operational risk 18 Annex 1 – Risk map 19 Annex 2 – Definitions 20 Annex 3 – Certain calculation methods 22 Annex 4 – References 24 2 Introduction Under the Ordinance (2007:1447) containing Instructions for the National Debt Office there has to be a description of the main risks associated with the operations of the Debt Office and of how to manage these risks. There also have to be internal instructions for managing these risks. The description, the internal instructions and compliance with the instructions are to be kept under continuous review. The Ordinance containing Instructions for the National Debt Office also state that the Board is to adopt frameworks and guidelines for the risks associated with the Debt Office’s operations. The Financial and Risk Policy supports the Debt Office’s risk management and its internal control. The policy provides an overview of the Debt Office’s management of risks and the level of risk selected. The policy brings together rules, frameworks and benchmarks for managing risks that arise in the operations of the Debt Office. It also sets out certain principles for the conduct of operations. The annual review, reconsideration and adoption of this policy establish a process that ensures that the policy remains upto-date and relevant. The issuance of guarantees and credit in the Government guarantees and lending process is preceded by separate decisions by the Riksdag (the Swedish Parliament) and the Government. This means that the level of risk in these operations is largely governed by the commitments decided by the Riksdag and the Government There is a separate decision-making body in the Debt Office called the Resolution Board. The Resolution Board makes decisions on questions to be examined by the Debt Office under the Resolution Act (2015:1016), as the support authority under the Precautionary Government Support to Credit Institutions Act (2015:1017) or as the guarantee authority under the Investor Compensation Act (1999:158) and the Deposit Guarantee Act (1995:1571) if the questions concern matters of principle or are of major importance or relate to regulations. The Financial stability and consumer protection process is therefore not included in the Financial and Risk Policy. The risks covered by the Financial and Risk Policy are identified in the risk map (annex 1). Market risks are mainly managed within the framework of the Management and payment of the central government debt process and are therefore described in that section (section 2). Credit risks and operational risks are described in separate sections (sections 6 and 7). Security risk is managed in accordance with the Debt Office's Security Policy. Business risk, external risk and strategic risk are not given separate sections but are mainly managed within the framework of other risks (see annex 2). It should also be noted that there is no separate process for identification and management of reputational risk. Instead this risk is taken into account in connection with impact assessments of other risks. The policy sets out board decisions. Discussions and analyses underlying these decisions are to be found in separate documents. There is a list of these documents in annex 4. Operational decisions that follow from this policy are made by the Director General or officials in accordance with delegation procedures set out in the rules of procedure of the Debt Office and the relevant departments. 3 1 Management of risks in the Debt Office 1.1 Framework Identification Risk identification is based on what has happened and what can happen. The purpose of risk management work is to identify and manage risks that affect achievement of the Debt Office’s objectives. Assessment Risk management provides a readiness to act and the ability to plan and execute activities to manage risks. To achieve this, the risks must be known and the measures the Debt Office chooses to take or not to take must be the result of conscious decisions. Risk management therefore makes it possible to take decisions balancing costs and risks. The assessment of the risks identified takes account of probability and impacts. Quantitative measurement methods can be used for assessment of certain risks, such as credit risks and market risks. Other risks, such as operational risks, are more difficult to quantify but same process structure is used to identify, assess and manage them. Objectives Measures and priorities The Debt Office is to have good internal control through effective and appropriate risk management in accordance with market practice. In its management of financial and operational risks the Debt Office is to meet the requirements relevant to its operations set in the legislation for financial companies and in the regulations and general advice issued by Finansinspektionen (the Swedish financial supervisory authority). After the risk has been identified and assessed the following courses of action are available: 1.2 eliminate the risk limit the risk transfer (insure) the risk retain the risk without taking any measures. The choice depends on how the particular risk has been assessed, and on what risk level has been decided on. A trade-off is made between expected cost and risk. The Debt Office’s risk management process The Debt Office is to have a systematic process for risk management. The process builds on five steps. Implementation The measures decided on to achieve the level of risk selected are handled by the Debt Office's operations. Identification Reporting and monitoring Reporting and monitoring Implementation The effects of the risk management measures taken are monitored, evaluated and reported. Assessment Measures and priorities 4 2 Management and payment of the central government debt process General framework This means that the Debt Office must establish intermediate objectives and internal guidelines for the operational management of the central government debt. The Financial and Risk Policy translates the Government's guidelines decision for the management of the central government debt into operational decisions that guide ongoing borrowing and debt management. To increase clarity some of the Government guideline decisions are reproduced in the Financial and Risk Policy. The management of the central government debt is governed by the Budget Act (SFS 2011:203). That Act sets out the objective for the management of the central government debt and the purposes for which the Government may raise loans.1 The Act also states that the Government shall adopt guidelines for the management of the central government debt each year. The Government's decision reflects a desired trade-off between the expected cost and risk of the debt. Under the Act the Government also has to present an evaluation of the management of the central government debt to the Riksdag every other year. 2.1 Principles for management of central government debt Debt and market maintenance The Government's guidelines state that the Debt Office is to contribute through market and debt maintenance, to reducing the costs of the central government debt. The Financial and Risk Policy establishes principles for debt and market maintenance that guide the management of the central government debt. These principles show how the Debt Office will contribute to the development and maintenance of wellfunctioning government securities markets, which is necessary to achieve the overall objective of cost minimisation taking account of risk. The Government has delegated the right to raise loans and the responsibility for the ongoing management of the central government debt to the Debt Office. Objectives Under the Budget Act the objective is to manage the central government debt in such a way as to minimise the cost of the debt in the long-term while taking the risk in its management into account. The management of the debt is also to be conducted within the framework of monetary policy requirements. The following principles are to provide guidance: Decision of the Debt Office The Government's guidelines decision for the management of the central government debt means that Debt Office is responsible for taking strategic decisions within the framework of the guidelines and for the implementation of these decisions in the operational management of the central government debt. The Debt Office is to establish internal guidelines based on the Government’s guidelines. These decisions are to concern the use of the position mandate, the foreign currency distribution in the foreign currency debt and principles for market and debt maintenance. 1 Loans may be raised to: finance current deficits in the central government budget and other expenditure based on decisions of the Riksdag (Swedish Parliament); provide credits and perform guarantees decided by the Riksdag; amortise, redeem and buy back central government loans; meet the need for central government loans at different maturities in consultation with the Riksbank; and satisfy the Riksbank’s need for foreign currency reserves. 5 The Debt Office will act responsibly in all contexts. This includes always treating counterparties in an impartial and objective way and avoiding transactions that may result in damage to the reputation of the Debt Office or the Swedish State. The requirement of a responsible approach is reinforced in the domestic krona market by the Debt Office’s position as the dominant participant. The Debt Office will be as consistent, predictable and open as possible in its information to and communication with the market, particularly markets for bonds and T-bills denominated in Swedish kronor. The Debt Office’s borrowing will be characterised by transparency and predictability. The central government debt will be spread over several loans and maturities in order to limit the refunding risk. The Debt Office will seek to broaden the investor base for Swedish government securities. The Debt Office will have borrowing and sales channels that are efficient and have a positive impact on the functioning of the market in Swedish government securities. The Debt Office will support the liquidity of the government securities market by providing repo and switch facilities. The Debt Office will work to ensure that infrastructure is in place that enables the market in the Swedish government securities to functioning effectively. more than twelve years to maturity is reported. Deviations are supplemented with an explanation of the sequence of events. 2.2.2 The Government has determined that the share of inflationlinked krona debt is to be 20 per cent of the central government debt in the long term. This share is calculated using nominal amounts at the present exchange rate including accrued compensation for inflation. Entering into transactions The purpose of the following principle is to reduce the operational risk in the management of the central government debt. Inflation-linked krona debt The Government has established that the maturity of the inflation-linked krona debt is to be between 6 and 9 years. The maturity may deviate temporarily from the maturity interval. The Debt Office may only enter into transactions that it has the competence, systems and routines to handle. Reporting to the Board Management of the foreign currency debt The share and maturity of the inflation linked krona debt are reported as one-month moving averages of daily observations. Deviations are supplemented with an explanation of the sequence of events. The purpose of the following principle is to reduce the risk that transactions cannot be valued continuously. In managing the foreign currency debt, the Debt Office will act in markets which are liquid and well developed. If derivative transactions can be made that lead to the elimination of market risk in a borrowing transaction, lower liquidity requirements in the market in the borrowed currency can be accepted. 2.2 2.2.3 The Government has determined that the foreign currency exposure of the central government debt is to decrease. The decrease is to be no more than SEK 30 billion per year. The Government has determined that the maturity of the foreign currency debt is to be between 0 and 1 years. The maturity may deviate temporarily from the maturity interval. Composition and maturity of central government debt The steering of the composition and maturity of the central government debt is described below. Maturity refers to the Macaulay duration (see annex 3). 2.2.1 Foreign currency debt Currency benchmark The currency benchmark specifies how the exposure in foreign currency is to be distributed between different currencies. This exposure is measured as the nominal amount expressed in each foreign currency. Nominal krona debt The nominal krona debt is the part of the central government debt that is not inflation-linked krona debt or foreign currency debt. In 2017 the total exposure in foreign currency is to decrease by approximately SEK 20 billion through the exchange of CAD 720 million, EUR 520 million, GBP 400 million and USD 600 million. The reduction of exposure in these currencies is the reduction decided by the Government of the foreign currency exposure and is to be carried out evenly over the quarter. The exposure in other currencies is to be unchanged. But the exposure in EUR, which is steered indirectly by the exposure in the other currencies and the total foreign exchange exposure, is to be allowed to vary (see table 1). The Government has determined that the maturity of the nominal krona debt for instruments with maturities of up to twelve years is to be between 2.9 and 3.9 years. Its maturity may temporarily deviate from this maturity interval. For nominal krona instruments with maturities of more than twelve years, the Government has determined that the longterm benchmark for the outstanding volume is to be SEK 70 billion. Reporting to the Board The maturity of instruments with maturities of up to twelve years is reported as one-month moving averages of daily observations. The outstanding volume of instruments with 6 Table 1. Foreign currency benchmark at the end of 2016 and 2017 respectively. The amounts are expressed in million units of each foreign currency The Debt Office is permitted to take positions in foreign currency and the krona exchange rate. Currency Positions in foreign currency may only be taken using derivative instruments. Positions must not be taken in the Swedish fixed income market. Positions are transactions that are intended to reduce the costs of the central government debt while taking account of risk, or to reduce the risks for the central government debt while taking account of cost, and that are not justified by underlying borrowing or investment requirements. Positions may only be taken in markets that permit the management of market risk through liquid and otherwise well-developed derivative instruments, which are potentially a borrowing currency in the context of debt management. Positions in foreign currency are limited to SEK 300 million, measured as daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) with a 95 per cent probability. The Debt Office is to decide how much of this volume may be used at most in its ongoing management. Positions in the krona exchange rate may not exceed a maximum of SEK 7.5 billion and are to be built up or wound down gradually and announced in advance. The Debt Office decides how much of this volume may be used at most in ongoing management in connection with exchanges between the krona and other currencies. This volume is to be of a limited size and the positions do not need to be announced in advance. Positions are not included in the calculation of debt shares and maturities. 31/12/2016 31/12/2017 EUR Residual Residual USD -1 240 -640 GBP -830 -430 CHF -4 840 -4 840 CAD -1 440 -720 The Director General determines deviation intervals for the currencies included in the benchmark and to what extent there may be exposures to currencies not included in the benchmark. Maturities for individual currencies The maturities of the individual currencies whose exposure exceeds the equivalent of SEK five billion are to be between 0 and 1 year. Their maturities may temporarily deviate from the maturity interval. Interest rate refixing is to be distributed evenly over time. Reporting to the Board Foreign currency exposure is reported on a daily basis. Maturities are reported as one-month moving averages of daily observations. The reduction of the foreign currency exposure in CAD, EUR, GBP and USD is reported in both foreign currency and Swedish kronor calculated using the exchange rate on 30 November 2016. Deviations are supplemented with an explanation of the sequence of events. 2.3 Exchanges between Swedish kronor and foreign currency An even exchange path for the Debt Office’s exchanges between the Swedish krona and foreign currencies is intended to provide predictability and clarity about the Debt Office’s presence in the krona exchange market. By spreading transactions to multiple occasions, dependence on the exchange rate on particular occasions is also reduced. The exchange path is to be determined by spreading the net exchange volume evenly over time. Exchanges made in connection with possible positions between kronor and foreign currency are excluded. 2.4.1 Positions in foreign currency debt Purpose Minor deviations from the exchange path are permitted. The accumulated exchange path determined and the actual accumulated exchanges are reported regularly. The main purpose of the Debt Office’s position taking in foreign currency is to achieve cost savings or reduce the risk in the management of the central government debt by taking positions based on assessments of future interest rates and exchange rates within defined risk limits 2.4 Objective Reporting to the Board Position taking The objective is to achieve a positive result or lower risk. The Government has decided that: 7 Portfolio size Internal continuous management The positions in foreign currency are taken in portfolios with a notional total nominal value equivalent to SEK 200 billion. Portfolio size The Debt Office’s own positions in foreign currency can be taken in a portfolio corresponding to a notional value of no more than SEK 200 billion less the amounts managed by the external managers. Portfolios Positions are taken within the Debt Office (“internal continuous management”) and through external managers (“external continuous management”). Risk mandate The transactions of each external manager and internal management are kept apart and placed in separate portfolios. Each portfolio has a separate risk and result measurement. Permitted markets Of the VaR amount decided by the Government, a maximum of 220 million SEK (daily VaR with a 95 per cent confidence level) less the amount allocated to external managers is allocated to the internal continuous position taking. The currency limits for each currency are ±6.0 per cent of the size of the portfolio. Currency and interest-rate positions may be taken in the following currencies and markets: Australia, Canada, Switzerland, Denmark, United Kingdom, Japan, Norway, United States, and in the euro. The interest rate risk limit measured in SEK is ± 0.90 per cent of the size of the internal portfolio. The interest rate risk limit for each currency is ±0.60 per cent of the size of the portfolio. Measurements and calculation External continuous management The risk is measured as daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) at a 95 per cent confidence interval. Purpose The purpose of the external management is: The VaR limits are supplemented with limits for currency positions expressed in per cent of the notional amount that is subject to active management. In addition, a statement is given of how much interest rate positions may affect the total duration of the notional amount subject to active management and how much interest rate positions in individual currencies may affect the duration of individual currencies. Benchmarking: a measure against which the internal result can be compared. Return: the possibility of increasing the return/reducing costs in the long term and reducing fluctuations in the result. Knowledge and information: access to information and the managers’ experience and expertise. The return is measured as change in the market value of the portfolios (including accrued interest) plus realised flows. Number of mangers Evaluation horizon Portfolio sizes The result of positions in foreign currency is presented annually. The evaluation is carried out over the past five-year period. Up to a notional amount equivalent to SEK 40 billion of the foreign currency debt is managed externally. There are at least three external managers at any given time. Risk mandate Reporting to the Board The external managers may be allocated a risk volume totalling 20 per cent of the total VaR limit, i.e. SEK 44 million per day. The result and outstanding positions and VaR usage in position taking in foreign currencies are reported continuously. Deviations from the risk mandate are reported. The currency limits for each currency are ±6.0 per cent of the portfolio allocated. The Debt Office's VaR model is evaluated once a year by comparing the actual and forecast outcome (“back-testing”). The result of back-testing of the VaR model is reported annually. The interest rate risk limit measured in SEK for each portfolio is ± 0.90 per cent of the amount allocated. The interest rate risk limit for each currency in the same portfolio is ±0.60 per cent of the size of portfolio. 8 Time horizon a summary of managers that have been added to or left the group are presented at least once a year. The reasons for selecting and dismissing managers are described. An annual evaluation is made of whether the purpose of external management has been achieved To enable comparisons to be made with the Debt Office’s internal management, managers should be offered the possibility of long-term management. The objective should be for an external manager to work for the Debt Office for a long period of time (at least about three years). Otherwise, the same evaluation horizon as described above is applicable. 2.4.2 Reporting to the Board Exchanges between Swedish kronor and foreign currency The limit for position taking in relation to the exchange path is zero. An in-depth report on the external managers’ performance and operations, in addition to their financial performance, and 9 3 Retail market borrowing process General framework The prizes on Lottery Bonds are exempt from tax under Chapter 8, Section 3, of the Income Tax Act and the Lottery Tax Act (1991:1482), which states that lottery tax is not paid on lottery bond prizes. This does not mean that the prizes are tax subsidised, since the tax exemption is taken into account when the interest rate is set on a lottery bond loan. Lottery bonds are also exempted from the Lotteries Act (1994:1000) so the Debt Office does not need to apply for a licence for these operations. National Debt Savings are account-based savings with a fixed or floating interest rate. Accounts with floating rates were wound up in November 2015.2 Fixed rate accounts have been closed for new account holders while existing accounts will run to maturity. Objective The Government states in its guidelines for the management of the central government debt that the Debt Office is to contribute through retail market borrowing to reducing the costs of the central government debt in the long term compared with equivalent borrowing in the institutional market. Principles for retail market borrowing The processes through which the products are managed have to take account of good control. The products have to be easy to understand so as to create confidence among savers and thus increase sales. Lottery bond dealers have to be financially stable and must not act in a way that could have an adverse impact on the Debt Office’s reputation. Reporting to the Board The result of retail market borrowing is reported continuously. 2 Several depositors have not given an account or a correct account so it has not yet been possible to make payments to all depositors. 10 4 Central government liquidity management process General framework Objectives Under the Ordinance (2007:1447) containing Instructions for the Swedish National Debt Office one of the main tasks of the Debt Office is to be responsible for the central government payment model, including the treasury single account. The Debt Office also has the task of providing loans to and accepting funds on account from, primarily, government agencies. One of the Government’s overall objectives for the Debt Office is for the state payment model as a whole to be costeffective and secure at the same time as services to government agencies are good and the state’s relation to the banks is neutral in terms of competition. Deposits from and lending to government agencies are to take place on terms based on central government's borrowing costs. Currency exchange transactions carried out by the Debt Office on behalf of government agencies are to be based on central government's currency exchange costs. The Capital Supply Ordinance (2011:210) governs how these agencies are entitled and obliged to fund assets through loans at the Debt Office. Under the Ordinance, the Debt Office also has the task of transferring appropriations to the agencies’ interest-bearing accounts. Principles for central government liquidity management The purpose of these principles is to achieve efficient and secure liquidity management both for the individual agency and for central government as a whole.3 This means that: Under the Ordinance (2006:1097) on Government Agency Payments and Fund Management (the Payment Ordinance), the Debt Office is responsible for the treasury single account (the central government’s central account at the Riksbank). This Ordinance contains rules on agency accounts, payments, management of funds and exchange hedges. Effective payment services and centralised liquidity management play an important part in making the payment model effective for both government agencies and central government as a whole. The Debt Office has chosen to divide the payment services into three framework agreements: a framework agreement for payment services, a framework agreement for charge cards, travel accounts and procurement cards and a framework agreement for prepaid card services. The framework agreement for payment services is the one that covers government agencies’ incoming and outgoing payment services and that is usually directly linked to the payment model. Credit risks associated with the agreement are dealt with in 6.2. The other two framework agreements do not contain any appreciable credit risk. However, there is a reputational risk if, for example, one party to the agreement does not deliver as agreed. All the agreements have a termination clause that entitles the Debt Office to terminate the agreement. 3 All daily incoming and outgoing payments in the activities financed via the central government budget are gathered in the treasury single account at the Riksbank or in the Debt Office's currency accounts. Transactions in the treasury single account are recorded in Swedish kronor. Government agencies' bank accounts have to be linked to the Debt Offices top accounts in the banks with which the Debt Office has reached framework agreements for payment services. A government agency that wishes to open or alter a bank account has to apply to the Debt Office to do so. The Debt Office is allowed to grant exemptions from this requirement.4 In the case of accounts linked to a multi currency cash pool structure in foreign currency, incoming and These principles are mainly taken from the Payment Ordinance The principle that the Debt Office has to consent to and act as an intermediary for payments for the European Commission is based on a Government decision of 31 May 2001. The following four principles are based on the Debt Office’s own decisions: that FX forwards may primarily be arranged in the currencies included in the Debt Office’s currency benchmark; the examples given of the requirements on the security of payment intermediaries and services; and that the agencies are responsible for the security of their payments, including matters relating to authorised use and access to reserve procedures. Under the Ordinance on Administration of the Contribution to the European Union Budget (2004:1333) the Debt Office is responsible both for coordination of payments to the European Commission and for the administration of an account in the name of the Commission for crediting the contribution. 4 Before a decision is made on amendments to the Payment Ordinance (reg. no 2016/638) this requirement is not applied to all types of accounts. 11 outgoing payments in the Debt Office's main currencies are gathered in currency accounts.5 In the case of accounts not affiliated to the multi currency cash pool structure, the government agency has to make exchanges from or to Swedish kronor for every single payment in foreign currency. If an FX forward is required for currency flows, the agency has to contact the Debt Office. FX forwards can be arranged in the first place in the currencies included in the Debt Office's benchmark portfolio.6 The approval of the Debt Office is required for the intermediation of payments direct to the Government's central account. The Debt Office is to adopt regulations and general advice regarding the Payment Ordinance. The Debt Office is to procure framework agreements with payment intermediaries with which government agencies will have to place orders to meet their needs for payment services. In these framework agreements the Debt Office sets requirements concerning the level of security of the payment intermediaries and payment services. Government agencies may only sign separate agreements for payment services outside the central government framework agreements after approval by the Debt Office. Government agencies are responsible for their payments and for ordering services under framework agreements; this responsibility includes correct payment commissions, authorised use and access to reserve procedures in the event of interruptions and disruptions. The Debt Office is to analyse the risks in the payment model each year. Every other year the Debt Office is to submit a report on these risks to the Government. Tools for strengthening the security of the payment model include amended regulations to the Payment Ordinance, the framework agreements and training and information for agencies. 5 The multi currency cash pool structure is being introduced as of 1 April 2017. Government agencies' bank accounts in the Debt Office's main currencies will be affiliated to the multi currency cash pool structure in stages. At present the main currencies are EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, USD, NOK och DKK. 6 See section 2.2.3 Foreign currency debt 12 5 Government guarantees and lending process General framework credit losses incurred. The part that relates to administrative costs is available to the Debt Office to cover running administrative expenses. Under the Budget Act (2011:203) the Riksdag decides on the purpose and amounts of state guarantees and loans. A fee or interest is levied that corresponds to the central government’s expected loss and other costs for the commitment. The provisions in the Budget Act on government loans mean that loans and guarantees are treated equally in all essential respects. Riksdag decisions on new guarantees or lending are followed by a government decision to the agency responsible setting out the commission and conditions in detail. To a great extent the Debt Office outstanding guarantees and lending have been preceded by specific decisions of the Riksdag and the Government. This means that the level of risk in the portfolio is governed to a great extent by commitments decided by the Riksdag and the Government. Government guarantee operations are divided between four agencies; the Debt Office, the Swedish Export Credits Guarantee Board (EKN), The Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Planning (Boverket) and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida). Lending operations are, in turn, mainly divided between the Swedish Board for Study Support (CSN), the Debt Office and Sida, but a handful of other agencies also handle government loans to a lesser extent. Since 2011 the Debt Office has been commissioned to carry out an overall risk analysis of government guarantees and loans in cooperation with the other guarantee and loan agencies. The analysis includes both a credit perspective and a liquidity perspective and is, until further notice, reported to the Government in an annual report by 15 March at the latest. The Lending and Guarantees Ordinance (2011:211) contains provisions associated with the Budget Act and regulates the loan and guarantee operations of the Debt Office (apart from the deposit guarantee scheme, the investor compensation scheme and the “bank guarantee programme” which are regulated separately and are not included in the Financial and Risk Policy). Decisions of the Debt Office Strategic decisions are made by the Board and operational decisions by the Director General or officials in accordance with the rules of procedure of the Debt Office and the relevant departments. The Debt Office has to assess and evaluate the financial risks that a guarantee commitment or lending entails for central government and ensure that the matter is examined and handled in a financially responsible way. Objectives The Debt Office also has to apply EU regulations saying that state aid that distorts competition in the internal market is not permitted. This means that state aid is not permitted in most activities; the fee must instead be based on a market price and be paid by the guarantee holder/borrower. But in some areas state aid is permitted (for example support to employment and to small and medium-sized enterprises). The Government sets out the objectives of the guarantee and loan operations in the Debt Office's appropriation directions For government guarantees and loans the risk in each commitment (or group of commitments) is estimated and a price is set in the form of a fee/interest for the guarantee or lending. If the fee/interest is not fully recovered from the guarantee-holder/borrower, but is charged to an appropriation, this constitutes a government subsidy. The part of the fee/interest that corresponds to the expected loss is to be transferred to a reserve, which is used to cover any 13 The Debt Office is to contribute to limiting central government risk and safeguarding the position of central government. This is to be done by evaluating financial risks, setting fees, deciding terms and conditions and collecting claims. The Debt Office is to work actively for the efficient performance of the guarantee and loan operations of other agencies under the Government. The Debt Office is to continue to develop the management of government guarantees and lending in cooperation with the other agencies concerned. Principles for management of guarantees and lending recourse claims and payment problems. The Debt Office is to demand repayment in accordance with the debtor's ability to pay, which means that a decision may be made to forgive all or parts of a claim if there are sufficient commercial reasons for doing so. In light of the Debt Office’s decreasing portfolio of small recourse claims, efforts should be made to achieve a balance between the cost of management and the expected recovery values. The purpose of the principles is to specify/provide guidance on how the Debt Office will issue guarantees and loans within the frameworks set by the Budget Act, government ordinances and other regulations in force and Riksdag and Government decisions Commercial pricing is used when state aid is not permitted under EU rules. The Debt Office will work for a design of guarantees and loans that allows the expected losses to be estimated reliably. If the guarantees or loans are designed in such a way that the expected loss cannot be estimated reliably, these commitments should not be handled within the guarantee and loan model. The Debt Office will use methods regarded as best practice, mainly rating methodology where appropriate, when evaluating risk in guarantee and credit operations. The methodology will be validated continuously. Validation will focus on the material risks in the operations. The principles of a commercial approach and equal treatment are to provide guidance in the processing of Reporting to the Board The Guarantees and Lending Department reports annually or when required to the Board on the Debt Office guarantee and lending portfolio. Its reporting focuses on the larger and more complex risks in the portfolio. In addition, the Board is informed of the material changes in risk that the Debt Office is obliged to report to the Ministry of Finance and of the outcome of the internal risk monitoring process. 14 6 Credit risks The purpose of rules and limits for credit risks is to set requirements that must be complied with before transactions are entered into in order to limit the credit risk and to manage credit risks on outstanding transactions. The Debt Office's internal regulations for initial counterparties contains specific regulations for each CCP the Debt Office affiliates to. Calculation methods, see annex 3. The use of central counterparty clearing requires no ISDA and CSA for either the CCP or the initial counterparty. Reporting to the Board OTC derivative transactions Breaches of limits and monitoring limits are reported. Contractual requirements 6.1 The Management and payment of the central government debt process 6.1.1 Counterparty risks ISDA agreements with a downgrading clause (“rating trigger”) and Credit Support Annex (CSA) are required before OTC derivative transactions may be entered into and remain in the portfolio. The Debt Office’s CSA agreements have to include a clause on mutual threshold values as set out in the table shown below. The agreements also have to contain a clause stating that a downgrade of the counterparty will automatically result in a reduction of the threshold value in accordance with the table shown below. Rating requirements These requirements cover OTC derivative transactions and short-term placements. The counterparty’s long-term rating has to be at least A-. Market requirement and maximum maturity If the counterparty is downgraded under A-, new transactions with the counterparty are only allowed after a decision by the Director General in order to reduce the risk. On the basis of a trade-off between cost and risk, outstanding transactions may be held to maturity following a decision by the Director General. The decision is reconsidered if further downgrades occur during the period to maturity. These decisions are reported back to the Board. Transactions are conducted in well-developed markets and in maturities with good liquidity. The maximum maturity is up to and including 20 years. Limits The limits for OTC derivative transactions are the threshold values in the CSA agreements. The following threshold values apply. For counterparties in short-term placements a short-term credit rating can be used if the counterparty has no long-term credit rating. In that case, the short-term credit rating is translated into the equivalent long-term credit rating. As the short-term and long-term rating scales cannot be translated one to one, the short-term credit rating is translated to the lowest equivalent long-term rating. The limits are then to correspond to the limits set for the translated long-term credit rating. Table 2. Threshold values Rating Central counterparty clearing, OTC instruments Only central counterparties (CCPs) authorised under European Parliament and Council Regulation 648/2012 may be engaged for central counterparty clearing. SEK million EUR or USD million AAA 500 50 AA+ 250 25 AA 200 20 AA- 130 13 A+ 100 10 A 80 8 A- 50 5 BBB+ or lower 0 0 Temporary deviations from the thresholds are permitted for practical reasons. No rating requirements and no limits are set for CCPs. 15 Short-term placements Limit SEK 50 billion per country. Maximum maturity 6.1.2 The maximum maturity is up to and including 12 months. To manage settlement risk the Debt Office will endeavour, where possible, to achieve settlement on the principles of Delivery Versus Payment (DVP) or Payment Versus Payment (PVP). Table 3. Limits, short-term placements Rating AAA AA+ to AA(inclusive) A+ & A A- Maximum exposure per counterparty according to base limit* Maximum exposure per counterparty according to extended limit** Maximum maturity SEK 8 billion SEK 10 billion Depending on the instrument SEK 5.5 billion SEK 7 billion Depending on the instrument SEK 3 billion SEK 4 billion Depending on the instrument SEK 1.5 billion SEK 2 billion Five banking days Settlement risk 6.1.3 Country risk Short-term placements and OTC derivatives may only be entered into with counterparties from a country with a longterm sovereign rating of at least A-. When approving new placement and/or OTC-derivative counterparties, account is also taken of the counterparty's country of domicile, for example as regards international sanctions in which Sweden is participating. 6.2 * Applies in normal circumstances. ** Applies for a limited period of time. Decision on use made by the Director-General. Central government liquidity management process Extra scope for overnight (“O/N”) placements Contractual requirements The framework agreements have to include principles and measures to limit account balances O/N in accounts under the treasury single account in the Riksbank and in currency accounts. The aggregate extra volume used for O/N placements must not exceed SEK 25 billion. Counterparties that can be approved for extra O/N volume are RIX participants, provided that they fulfil the conditions set for short-term placement counterparties. The extra volume for O/N placements is a maximum of SEK 25 billion per counterparty (including the short-term placement limit) for the five largest banks in the Swedish market and a maximum of SEK 6 billion per counterparty (including the short-term placement limit) for other RIX participants. The framework agreements have to contain a right for the Debt Office to terminate the agreement if the bank is downgraded (“downgrading clause”), suspends payments, applies for a company reorganisation, enters liquidation or is declared bankrupt. Rating requirement The long-term rating of the framework agreement bank has to be at least A- when the agreement is entered into. Reporting to the Board The Board is kept informed of the counterparties that have been granted an O/N extra limit and the size of the limit. Maximum maturity The maximum maturity is O/N. Extended limit for placements in other states Monitoring limits The country’s rating has to be AAA. The Debt Office sets the monitoring limits for account balances. Country requirements Account balances during the day Placements under the extended limit can be made in countries in the euro area and the UK, Denmark and Norway. To keep account balances during the day to a minimum several settlements are carried out during the day between each framework agreement bank and the Debt Office. The risk at each settlement is kept to a minimum by netting incoming and outgoing payments. Rating requirements Maximum maturity The maximum maturity under the extended limit is up to 4 months. 16 6.3 Maximum withdrawal amounts A government agency has to decide the maximum withdrawal amount for bank accounts that are linked to the Debt Office's top accounts in the framework agreement banks and therefore to the Government's central account in the Riksbank. Exceptions Swedish government agencies, the AP Funds and the Riksbank are regarded as risk-free counterparties and therefore not subject to limits. There are no rating requirements for dealers in lottery bonds within a subscription limit of at most SEK 150 million. However, an assessment of dealers has to be made. 17 7 Operational risk General framework The Debt Office works with operational risk on the basis of the ISO 27000 standard and the Internal Control Ordinance (SFS 2007:603). Principles A follow-up of the risk analyses is carried out and a new risk assessment is made, taking account of the effects of measures taken. Departments report incidents that occur in the operations. The cause of the event is followed up and relevant measures are implemented. The following principles apply to the management of operational risk. Reporting to the Board The Board is informed of the current risk status. The Board is also informed of incidents that have had a major impact on operations, along with the measures taken. The Debt Office carries out annual risk analyses of all departments in connection with planning activities. The selected risk level is documented. Measures that reduce identified risks are planned and given priority. 18 Annex 1 – Risk map The risk map shows the main types of risks identified within the framework of the Debt Office’s operations. 19 Annex 2 – Definitions In these definitions, the term loss means a negative impact on finances, reputation and/or business. Business risk Business risk is the risk of a loss on account of factors in the external business environment, for example lower demand for products or services. Interest rate risk Concentration risk Liquidity risk Concentration risk is the risk of a greater loss on account of a concentration on individual and/or correlated risk factors. Liquidity risk is the risk of not being able to meet payment obligations as they fall due without a substantial increase in the cost of obtaining means of payment. Liquidity risk includes financing risk, refinancing risk and market liquidity risk. Interest rate risk is the risk that the value of assets and liabilities will change in an unfavourable way when levels of interest rates change. Country risk Country risk is a group of risks associated with doing business with a counterparty in a particular country. These risks mainly refer to the ability of a country to meet its external obligations, expectations about the general development of the economy in the country, political stability and the legislative environment of the country. Market liquidity risk. Market liquidity risk is the risk that it will not be possible to realise or cover a position at the current market price since the market is not deep enough or is not functioning on account of some disturbance. Credit risk Market risk Credit risk is the risk that a loss will be incurred because a counterparty will not fulfil its obligations and the risk that a loss of value will arise on account of impaired credit quality. Credit risk includes settlement risk, default risk, country risk and systemic risk. Market risk is the risk of a loss because of unfavourable price movements in the market. Market risk includes interest rate risk, currency risk and inflation risk. Operational risk Currency risk Currency risk is the risk that the value of assets and liabilities will change in an unfavorable way when currency exchange rates change. Operational risk is the risk of loss on account of inadequate or failed internal processes or of human error, faulty systems or external events. This risk can have an internal or external cause. Security-related risks are part of operational risks. Default risk Refinancing risk Default risk is the risk that the counterparty in a transaction will not fulfil its obligations. Settlement risk is a form of default risk. Refinancing risk is the risk that it will be difficult and/or expensive to replace maturing loans. Settlement risk External risk External risk is the risk of a loss on account of changes outside the Debt Office, for example changes in the (geo-)political or global (economic) situation. Settlement risk is the risk that one party will not fulfil its undertakings at the time of settlement, i.e. will not deliver currency or securities after the other party has already fulfilled its undertakings. Financing risk Strategic risk Financing risk is the risk that it will be difficult and/or expensive to raise new financing. Strategic risk is the risk of a loss because of misdirected strategic decisions and/or because strategic decisions do not have the intended effect. Inflation risk Inflation risk is the risk of a loss in nominal terms because inflation is higher than expected. 20 Systemic risk Systemic risk means the risk that problems affecting one or more participants spread to other parties and cause general problems in the financial system. 21 Annex 3 – Certain calculation methods Maturity of the central government debt financial risks. But there are still possibilities of making an inhouse interpretation and adaptation of the method. The Government has decided that the maturity of the central government debt is to be measured as duration. Its duration is expressed as Macaulay duration. The main steps in the method are: 1. Calculate the variation for each factor’s result on a daily basis. For an individual instrument Macaulay duration describes the average remaining time to maturity by weighting the time to each cash flow (coupon and principal) by the cash flow’s share of the present value. For a portfolio, for example a type of debt, the Macaulay duration is calculated as the present value-weighted sum of the individual instruments' Macaulay duration. 2. Weight them together exponentially to get a kind of average. Exponential weighting means that different weights can be attached to events that are close in time in relation to earlier events. The Debt Office uses a weighting factor (decay) of 98%. Macaulay duration can be calculated in various ways. The Debt Office has chosen to calculate Macaulay duration on the basis of an approximation of modified duration. Modified duration can be converted to Macaulay duration using the following formula: 3. Calculate the covariance between the factors (correlations). 4. Allocate the portfolio’s cash flows to the different maturity factors. 𝐷𝑢𝑟Macaulay = 𝐷𝑢𝑟Modifierad (1 + 𝑟YTM ) 5. Calculate the total VaR value for the portfolio taking account of the correlations calculated in step 4 and a confidence interval. The Debt Office uses a 95% unilateral confidence interval. For instruments with complex cash flow structures, the yield may be undefined, and thus modified duration cannot be converted to Macaulay duration. In those cases, Macaulay duration is replaced by modified duration. One interpretation of the VaR value is that there is only a 5 per cent risk of incurring a loss that is greater than the VaR value calculated. Modified duration for an individual instrument is calculated on the basis of dollar duration. Dollar duration shows how the market value for an instrument is affected by a small interest rate change. Instead of calculating the dollar duration analytically, the measure is approximated. The Debt Office monitors continuously (back-tests) how this matches up with reality and has presented this in recent years’ annual reports. Credit risks Calculation of interest rate risk limits in the continuous position taking The calculation of exposures in Over the Counter (OTC) derivative transactions is based on the market value and account is taken of netting in accordance with ISDA agreements. The limit set for interest rate risk in the continuous position taking is expressed in per cent. This is because the mandates in continuous position taking have different portfolio sizes and limits are therefore set as a maximum ratio of interest rate risk measured in kronor to the size of the portfolio, i.e. limit is expressed as a percentage of portfolio size. Assume, for example: Value-at-Risk (VaR) VaR is a method of calculating risks in a portfolio. This is done by taking account of different risk factors and how they affect one another and the portfolio. The risk factors currently used by the Debt Office are currency and 18 maturity intervals. Since the Debt Office uses eight currencies in active management, this makes a total of 152 (8 x 19) factors to take into account. The method used by the Debt Office was developed by JP Morgan and has become the industry standard for measuring 22 a portfolio size of SEK 200 billion a limit of ± 0.9 per cent the size of the portfolio, i.e. the limit is SEK 1.8 billion kronor an interest rate position with a size of SEK 1 billion in dollar duration. The ratio will then be SEK 1 billion /SEK 200 billion = 0.5 per cent. This is deducted from the limit. Then 0.4 of the limit (0.9 - 0.5) is left. This corresponds to 0.4 per cent * SEK 200 billion = SEK 0.8 billion. 23 Annex 4 – References Supporting material for the Financial and Risk Policy Decision on a clarification in section 2.2 regarding deviation intervals for the maturity of the nominal krona debt and inflation-linked krona debt. Board decision, 18 February 2015. The supporting material sets out analyses, discussions and reasons for amendments to the Financial and Risk Policy. The following is a list of the supporting material as of 2006 (i.e. the year when the first Financial and Risk Policy was adopted) with a description of the main content of the documents. Supporting material for 2015 Main content: Reduction of the exposure of the central government debt in foreign currency and new currency benchmark. Also several minor changes. (Supporting material for the adoption of the Debt Office's Financial and Risk Policy 2015, reg. no 2014/1400). Board decision, 11 December 2014. Amendment in 2017 Decision to change the currency benchmark for 2017. Board decision, 17 February 2017. Decision regarding adjustment in section 2.3 Exchanges between Swedish kronor and foreign currency due to the introduction of the multi currency cash pool structure. The adjustment refers to how the exchange path is determined. Board decision, 17 February 2017. Amendment in 2014 Supporting material for 2017 Decision on supplementary text in section 2.2.3 Foreign currency debt that, for practical reasons, minor exposures to foreign currencies and interest rates not included in the benchmark are permitted. Board decision, 15 September 2014. Main content: Introduction of the central government multi currency cash pool structure and the alternation of the currency benchmark for 2017. Also a number of minor changes. (Supporting material for the adoption of the Debt Office's Financial and Risk Policy 2017, reg. no 2016/1069). Board decision, 13 December 2016. Decision on supplementary text in section 7.1.2 OTC derivative transactions, clarifying that temporary overruns of the thresholds are allowed. The decision also includes the removal of footnote 5 in the same section. Board decision, 19 May 2014. Amendment in 2016 Supporting material for 2014 Decision to remove the chapter “Financial stability and consumer protection process” from the Financial and Risk Policy. Board decision, 19 February 2016. Main content: Amendments to principles for management of the Deposit Guarantee Fund. Mainly extended maturity of investments and repos.(Supporting material for adoption of the Debt Office Financial and Risk Policy 2014, reg. no 2013/268). Board decision, 11 December 2013. Decision to amend the risk map and associated definitions. Board decision, 23 May 2016. Amendment in 2013 Supporting material for 2016 Decision on regulations for financial instruments centrally cleared at Nasdaq OMX (Amendment to Financial and Risk Policy – internal regulations for financial instruments centrally cleared at Nasdaq OMX, reg. no 2013/1064.) Board decision, 22 May 2013. Main content: Amendment of the currency benchmark for 2016 and clarification regarding the handling of outstanding transactions with a counterparty that is downgraded below A-. Also a number of minor changes. (Supporting material for the adoption of the Debt Office's Financial and Risk Policy 2016, reg. no 2015/959). Board decision, 14 December 2015. Supporting material for 2013 Main content: A number of changes in the sections on the processes: Payment and management of central government debt, Central government liquidity management, Guarantees and credits (including increased reporting requirements) and Financial stability and consumer protection. In the section on credit risks: Review of O/N limit, settlement risk, participation in issues etc. and country risk. (Supporting material for the Amendment in 2015 Decision to amend the maturity interval for the nominal krona debt as a result of substantial falls in market interest rates. Government decision of 12 March 2015, following a proposal from the Board of the Debt Office dated 18 February 2015. 24 adoption of the Debt Office's Financial and Risk Policy 2013, reg. no 2012/1730.) Board decision, 12 December 2012. Amendments in 2008 Temporary alteration of the mandate for currency exchanges. (Proposal for temporary alteration to the mandate for currency exchanges, reg. no 2008/621, Board decision, 16 April 2008.) Amendment in 2012 Decision on deviation interval for the nominal krona debt and the inflation linked krona debt (Amendment to Financial and Risk Policy 2012, reg. no 2012/1045). Board decision, 23 May 2012. Introduction of composition benchmarking for the foreign currency debt. (Reg. no 2008/1302, Board decision, 28 August 2008.) Supporting material for 2012 Alterations to exchanges between Swedish kronor and foreign currency. (Reg. no 2008/1636, Board decision, 21 October 2008.) Main content: Use of short-term rating, clarification regarding exception for overruns of limits, discussion of the term "material", etc. (see supporting material for adoption of the Debt Office's Financial and Risk Policy 2012, reg. no 2011/1963.) Board decision, 15 December 2011. Supporting material for 2008 Alteration of limit structure for short-term placements (Proposed change in the Debt Office’s Financial and Risk Policy 2011, reg. no 2011/1696). Board decision, 14 September 2011. Main content: The internal central government bank and the retail market were included in the Financial and Risk Policy, discussion of steering the share of inflation-linked debt, the maturity of the inflation-linked debt. (Supporting material for decision to adopt the Financial and Risk Policy 2008, reg. no 2007/1869. Board decision, 6 December 2007.) Supporting material for 2011 Amendment in 2007 Main content: In the Debt management and payments process an alteration was made to the interest rate refixing period of the nominal krona debt, the maturity benchmark for the inflation-linked debt was altered, the wording of decisions on position taking was altered and the VaR mandate was reduced. Some alterations were also made in the Guarantees and credit process (Reg. no 2010/1831, Board decision, 15 December 2010). Extended limit for short-term placements with other states. (Proposed amendment to the Debt Office's Financial and Risk Policy 2007, reg. no 2007/1655, Board decision, 17 October 2007.) Amendment in 2011 Supporting material for 2007 Main content: Distribution of the maturity of the debt, methods of calculating shares, steering and reporting of the inflation-linked share, position taking by the Debt Office, principles for the guarantees and credits branch of operations, the regulatory framework for counterparty risks. (Supporting material for adoption of the Financial and Risk Policy 2007, reg. no 2006/02015. Board decision, 7 December 2006.) Supporting material for 2010 Main content: “Support to credit institutions” was included in the policy, questions relating to investment operations for the deposit guarantee scheme were included in the section on Guarantees and credits (Reg. no. 2009/1565, Board decision, 16 December 2009). Amendment in 2006 Amendment in 2009 Alteration of the benchmark for the nominal krona debt interest rate refixing period (Reg. no 2009/686, Board decision, 14 April 2009) Extension of temporary limits on the overnight market. (Proposed amendment of the Debt Office's Financial and Risk Policy 2006, reg. no 2006/01158, Board decision, 16 June 2006.) Supporting material for 2009 Supporting material for 2006 Main content: Alteration of the currency distribution in the currency benchmark, delegation of previous board decisions in external active management, amendment of and supplement to principles for management of guarantees and credits and the principles for central government liquidity management. Main content: Risk management at the Debt Office, principles for debt and market maintenance, distribution of the maturity of the nominal debt, currency composition in the foreign currency debt, share of inflation-linked debt, calculation and reporting of the interest rate refixing period of the nominal krona debt, temporary credit limits on the overnight loan market. (Supporting material for adoption of the Financial and Risk Policy 2006, reg. no 2005/02408. Board decision, 08 December 2005.) 25 Board decisions before 2006 included in the Financial and Risk Policy - 2006 issues. These older decisions were included in the first Financial and Risk Policy. Before the Financial and Risk Policy was introduced (i.e. before 2006), the Board took separate decisions on particular 26 Visits: Jakobsbergsgatan 13 • Postal address: SE-103 74 Stockholm, Sweden • Telephone: +46 8 613 45 00 Fax: +46 8 21 21 63 • Email: [email protected] • Website: www.riksgalden.se
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