A SNAPSHOT OF
MINNESOTA’S CHANGING
CLIMATOLOGY
Advancing Adaptation Workshop
January 31, 2017
Dr. Kenneth A. Blumenfeld, State Climatology Office
Three Leading Changes Ongoing and
Expected to Continue
1.
2.
3.
Minnesota getting warmer and
wetter
Warming driven by loss of cold, all
seasons
Heavy rainfall more frequent and
intense
Annual Precipitation (in.)
Minnesota Average Temperature and Precipitation
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
Cool/wet
Warm/wet
1895-1986
Cool/dry
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
Annual Temperature (F)
43
Warm/dry
44
45
46
Annual Precipitation (in.)
Minnesota Average Temperature and Precipitation
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
2016
Cool/wet
Warm/wet
1997-2016
1895-1986
Cool/dry
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
Annual Temperature (F)
43
Warm/dry
44
45
46
Warming greatest in north, at night (lows), and
during winter
Total temperature change, 1895-2015
Annual Average
Winter Lows
Summer Highs
Winter warming 10x faster than
summer
Avg. change Avg. change
per decade per decade
since 1895 since 1970
Season
Temperature
Metric
Winter
Seasonal Avg.
+ 0.36°F
+ 1.00°F
(Dec - Feb)
Summer
Seasonal Avg.
+ 0.14°F
+ 0.10°F
(Jun - Aug)
Length and Magnitude of 10 F
Temperature Season, Duluth MN
Daily Average T Degrees Below 10F
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1956-1975
Length and Magnitude of 10 F
Temperature Season, Duluth MN
Daily Average T Degrees Below 10F
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1956-1975
1976-1995
Length and Magnitude of 10 F
Temperature Season, Duluth MN
Daily Average T Degrees Below 10F
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
1956-1975
2
1976-1995
1.5
1996-2015
1
0.5
0
Changes in Heavy Precipitation Frequency and Intensity
from 40 Long-Term Minnesota Stations, 1916-2015
30%
11
1" rainfall frequency change vs 1916-60 avg
Frequency Difference
20%
10-yr statewide (40-station) maximum
10
Ann. avg statewide (40-station) max (10-yr)
9
15%
10%
8
5%
7
0%
6
-5%
-10%
-15%
5
4
Maximum Rainfall (inches)
25%
Extreme rainfall: “Mega” rain events (6” +
over 1000 sq mi) are increasing
–June 28-29, 1975, Northwest MN
–June 30-July 2, 1978, Southeast MN
–July 23-24, 1987, Twin Cities Superstorm
–June 9-10, 2002, Northern MN
–September 14-15, 2004 Southern MN
–August 18-20, 2007, Southern MN
–September 22-23, 2010 Southern MN
–June 19-20, 2012, Northeast MN
–July 11-12, 2016, East-central MN
–August 10-11, 2016, Central and Southeast MN
Thank You!