Cereals market situation
Committee for the Common Organisation
of Agricultural Markets
30th May 2017
Exchange Rates
2
Euro – US Dollar exchange rate
1.40
01/07/2014
1.3688
1.13
From the last Committee
1.35
-18%
1.30
1.12
1.1196
1.25
1.11
1.20
1.10
1.15
1.10
1.09
1.0891
1.05
Spot, ECB reference
1.00
1.08
25/04
02/05
09/05
16/05
23/05
3
Euro and US Dollar – Russian Rouble
exchange rate
95
Source: Thomson Reuters
85
RUB/EUR
75
65
63.20
55
56.51
45
RUB/USD
35
25
01/13 04/13 07/13 10/13 01/14 04/14 07/14 10/14 01/15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 10/16 01/17 04/17
4
Euro and US Dollar - Ukraine Hryvnia
exchange rate
42
Source: Thomson Reuters
37
32
UAH/EUR
29.35
27
26.31
22
UAH/USD
17
12
7
01/13 04/13 07/13 10/13 01/14 04/14 07/14 10/14 01/15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 10/16 01/17 04/17
5
Crude oil price ($/barrel)
160
26/05/2017: 52
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE ($ PER BARREL), 1 MONTH FORWARD (FOB): BRENT BLEND (NORTH SEA) - UK
6
Baltic Dry Index
12000
Baltic Dry Index
26/05/2017: 912
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
7
Cereals Forecasts
8
Summary of the IGC Grain Market Report
(GMR 477 of 25/5/2017)
Outlook for 2017/18
•
Total grains: total grains production in 2017/18 is expected to decrease by 3.2% to
2,053m t (-1m t m/m) from the record harvest of 2016/17 (2,120m t, +8m t m/m).
World total consumption was raised by 7m t to 2,086m t (-1mt y/y) incl. 692m t for
food (+1.3%), 927m t for feed (-0.3%) and 349m t for industrial use (+1.0%).
Reflecting larger consumption ending stocks estimate was reduced to 479m t (-12m t
m/m; -6.6% y/y).
•
Wheat: world wheat production is projected to reach 736m t (≈ m/m; -2.4% y/y),
an above average level. Small reductions m/m to the US and EU estimates were
offset by an increase for India (+1m t to 96.5m t; +12% y/y, a new record). Harvest
neared completion in India with improved yields and quality vs. past 2 years.
Wheat consumption is projected at 738m t (≈ both m/m and y/y), matching last
year's record level, incl. 504m t for food use (+1.6%) and 144m t for feed (-5.3%).
•
9
Summary of the IGC Grain Market Report
(GMR 477 of 25/5/2017)
Outlook for 2017/18
•
Wheat: world ending stocks are seen at 239m t (-2m t y/y), slightly below the
record of 2016/17. While stocks would decrease by nearly 11m t to 68m t in the
major exporters, inventories would further accumulate in China reaching 99m t
(+8.8%; i.e. 41.6% of world total).
•
Maize: 2016/17 production was raised by 6m t to a record 1,065m t following a
number of upgrades, incl. increased official estimates for BRA. Record supplies and
attractive prices resulted in a record consumption of 1,048m t (+7m t m/m), incl.
609m t for feed and 282m t for industrial use.
•
Maize: 2017/18 output is projected at 1,026m t (-3.6% y/y, ≈ m/m) due to an
estimated 2% drop in harvested area, mainly caused by declines in US, China and
Brazil. Heavy rains in parts of the US Corn Belt led to flooding, which could reduce
area. Lower prices and crop diversification policies are expected to reduce area to
35.4m ha (-3.8%) in China.
10
Summary of the IGC Grain Market Report
(GMR 477 of 25/5/2017)
Outlook for 2017/18
•
Maize: world consumption is expected to grow further in 2017/18, to a new
peak of 1,054m t (+8m t m/m, +0.6%) as supplies remain abundant and
prices very attractive. Feed use is estimated to reach 618m t (+1.5%) and
industrial use 286m t (+1.5%). Ending stocks are forecast to drop sharply,
down by 29m t to 197m t (-13%), incl. 85m t (-17m t) in China and 53m t (5m t) in the US.
•
Barley: assuming average yields world production is forecast at a 5-year low of
143m t (-4.6% y/y) as higher output in North Africa would only partly offset
losses elsewhere, incl. Australia (9m t, -35%). The EU crop is estimated at 60m
t (+0.5%), UKR at 8m t (-21%) and RUS at 17m t (-2.5%). With somewhat
tighter supply barley consumtpion is seen decreasing to 145m t (-1.5%), incl.
98m t for feed use. Uptake by the animal sector is projected at a record of
11.8m t in Saudi Arabia, while feed use would decline to below 2m t in China.
11
World cereals: IGC
1000
Mt
900
World Consumption
World
Ending Stocks
700
600
2087
2053 (2054)
2000
1988
1817
1785
1935
World Production
1769
1731
373
1794
1750
457
481
513
479 (491)
1700
413
404
366
300
361
1600
336
1500
200
100
1900
1800
1850
500
400
1800
2200
Mt
2100
2012
2008
1853
1802
2086 (2079)
2049
2008
of which
8 major exporters
800
2120
159
172
140
125
99
123
150
154
178
158 (169)
0
1400
1300
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015(est) 2016(f'cast) 2017(proj.)
Source: IGC May report
12
World wheat: IGC
World
Ending Stocks
500
Mt
800
World Consumption
of which
8 major exporters
730
400
677
685
300
679
657
645
652
738
717
697
715
738 (738)
736 (736)
719
700
World Production
650
655
653
225
200
199
Mt
750
738
698
695
754
193
192
172
190
241
239 (239)
206
600
170
100
550
69
77
74
68
50
56
65
2012
2013
2014
68
79
68 (73)
0
500
2008
2009
2010
2011
2015(est) 2016(f'cast) 2017(proj.)
Source: IGC May report
13
Summary of the IGC Grain Market Report
(GMR 477 of 25/5/2017)
Outlook for 2017/18
•
Wheat production in selected countries (all wheat; million tonnes)
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
y/y change
156.1
159.6
144.7
149.9
+3.5 %
USA
55.1
56.1
62.9
49.6
-21.2 %
Russia
59.1
61.0
72.5
67.0
-7.6 %
Ukraine
24.7
27.3
26.8
24.5
-8.6 %
China
126.2
130.2
128.9
128.3
-0.4 %
India
95.9
86.5
86.0
96.5
+12.2 %
730.2
737.7
754.3
735.9
-2.4 %
EU-28
World total
14
World durum wheat: IGC
10
Mt
9
41
4 Major exporters*
Stocks
39
7
39
38
38
36
38
37
7.3
35
37
37
6.7 (7.1)
35
35
35
5
39
39.4 (39.4)
37
38
6
World Production
4.9
34
33
4.7
4
3
40
Mt
41
39
39
of which Canada
8
World Consumption
39.5 (39.4)
31
3.6
2.7
3.3
3.1
2.8
2.5
2
2.1
1.9
1.6
1
1.5
2.7
2.3 (2.5)
1.8
1.2
29
27
1.0
1.1
0
25
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015(est) 2016(f'cast) 2017(proj.)
*4 major exporters: Canada, EU, Mexico and USA
Source: IGC May report
15
World maize: IGC
350
World Consumption
Mt
World
Ending Stocks
300
250
843
150
875
866
Mt
1048
784
150
974
1026 (1026)
1000
World Production
950
900
226
821
875
820
1100
977
998
994
800
1054 (1046)
1019
of which US
200
1065
207
863
830
209
197 (207)
182
800
148
131
130
131
700
100
50
58
43
44
43
29
25
21
2010
2011
2012
0
2008
2009
44
600
53 (56)
31
500
2013
2014
2015(est) 2016(f'cast) 2017(proj.)
Source: IGC May report
16
Summary of the IGC Grain Market Report
(GMR 477 of 25/5/2017)
Outlook for 2017/18
•
Maize production in selected countries (million tonnes)
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
y/y change
76.2
59.0
60.5
61.0
+0.9 %
361.1
345.5
384.8
357.7
-7.0 %
Ukraine
28.5
23.3
28.0
28.5
+1.9 %
Brazil
84.7
67.0
93.0
88.5
-4.9 %
Argentina
33.8
39.8
42.5
39.8
-6.3 %
215.6
224.6
219.6
215.2
-2.0 %
1,021.0
977.0
1,064.6
1,025.9
-3.6 %
EU-28
USA
China
World total
17
World barley: IGC
90
Mt
80
World
Ending Stocks
155
150
160
World Consumption
150
of which EU
145
70
146
60
145
147
145
136
141
145 (146)
150
143 (144)
140
147
144
135
Mt
150
World Production
133
50
134
40
30
129
40
34
130
122
27
20
26
26
26
29
31
120
28 (30)
22
18
10
13
110
10
8
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
5
6
6
2012
2013
2014
6
7
7 (8)
100
2015(est) 2016(f'cast) 2017(proj.)
Source: IGC May report
18
Cereals Prices and Market News
19
Market News 1. (30-5-2017)
Black Sea region






- RUS: SovEcon reduced 2017/18 total grains output forecast to 106.5m t
(120.7m t in 16/17), incl. 63m t wheat (73m t), 16.7m t barley and 15.5m
maize. 2016/17 grain exports estimated at a record of 36.5m t, incl.
27.5m t of wheat, 4.8m t of maize and 3.1m t of barley.
- RUS: (Customs; 24/05) cumulative 2016/17 grain exports reached 32.7mt
(+1.3%), incl. 25.2m t wheat (+8%), 2.7m t barley (-36%) and 4.6m t
maize (+3%).
- RUS: min. support price fixed at 10,300 RUB (165 EUR) for 3rd class
and 9,000 RUB (144 EUR) for 4th class milling wheat in 2017/18.
- Turkey: duty free wheat imports from Russia resumed as from mid-May
- UKR: (24 05 2017) 2016/17 grain exports reached 40.1m t (+11%), incl.
16.5m t wheat (+8%), 5.2m t barley (+24%) and 18.2m t maize (+12%).
- UKR: spring grains sowings complete on 6.9m ha (95% of intended
area), incl. 4.3m ha for maize.
20
Market News 2. (30-5-2017)
U.S. Grain export inspections w/e 18/5/2017
Commodity
Maize
MY 2016/17
MY 2015/16
Change
41 913 002
27 615 874
+ 52 %
Sorghum
4 533 920
7 027 068
- 35 %
Soybeans
50 447 843
43 365 272
+ 16 %
Wheat
26 428 815
19 578 373
+ 35 %
•
Marketing Year = June/May for wheat and September/August for maize, sorghum
and soybeans; www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt
While demand remains very strong for US maize, weekly exports reached 1.1-1.4m t
lately, wheat exports accelerated as well.
21
Market News 3. (30-5-2017)

- USA: USDA Crop Progress report w/e 21 May:





Winter wheat conditions: 52% good/excellent (62% a year ago)
Winter wheat conditions: 15% poor/very poor (8% a year ago)
Spring wheat planting: 90% complete (94% a year ago, 84% 5-year ave)
Maize planting progress: 84% complete (84% a year ago, 85% 5-year ave)
- Early estimates indicate below average protein levels for new
crop US wheat

22
Market news 4. (30-5-2017)
Canada: Outlook for Principle Field Crops in 2017/18
(source: AAFC; crop year = Aug/July)
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18 f'
y/y
Durum prod' (m t)
5.39
7.76
5.70
-27%
exports (m t)
4.54
4.40
4.70
+7%
All wheat prod'(m t)
27.59
31.73
29.50
-7%
exports (m t)
21.69
19.90
20.90
+5%
Barley prod' (m t)
8.23
8.78
7.60
-13%
exports (m t)
1.99
1.82
1.87
+3%
Oats prod' (m t)
3.43
3.15
3.67
+17%
exports (m t)
2.23
2.48
2.48
+0%
24-05-2017
23
Market News 5. (30-5-2017)





- China: auctions re-started for selling government maize stocks
and large quantities (i.e. ≈ 1.0 – 5.8m t per week) were sold from
2011-2013 harvests at average prices of ≈ 200-205 $/t for the
2013 crop.
- Morocco: milling wheat import duty was raised from 30% to
135% and effective until 31/12/2017.
- Morocco: reference price for milling wheat set at MAD 2,800/t
(≈ 257€). Gov' to grant a flat rate subsidy (≈ 9.2 €/t) for mills
using domestic wheat.
- Tunisia: 2017/18 grain harvest is forecast at 1.8m t (1.3m t
last year), incl. 1.2m t durum and 0.5m t barley.
- Egypt: 2.9m t of wheat has been already procured from local
farmers vs. gov' target of 3.5-4.0m t.
24
Market News 6. (30-5-2017)
Brazil
• CONAB May report for 2016/17 S&D and production:
•
•
•
•
- Maize production forecast raised once again due to favourable weather.
Early harvesting started for the 2nd maize crop and will last until August.
- Soybeans output also raised due to good conditions and larger area
(area = 33.9m ha;+1.8%), while exports increased to 63m t (+22%)
- Wheat: 2nd estimate for the 2017/18 crop
11-05-2017
Forecast +/- previous
(m t)
f'cast (m t)
Wheat prod
5.2
- 0.3
Soybeans prod
113.0
+ 2.8
Maize prod
92.8
+ 1.3
Maize 1st crop
30.2
+ 0.3
nd
Maize 2 crop
62.7
+ 1.1
Previous
year
6.7
95.4
66.5
25.8
40.7
+/- y/y
- 23%
+ 18%
+ 40%
+ 17%
+ 54%
25
Market News 7. (30-5-2017)
Argentina
• Ag. Ministry May report incl. 1st production estimates for
2016/17 maize and soybeans
•
•
•

- Maize production is estimated at 46.5m t (+17%) and area at 5.9m
ha (+10%)
- Soybeans output seen at 58m t (-1%) and area at 19.5m ha (-5%)
- Wheat area for the 2017/18 crop is put at 6.0m ha (-6%)
- Maize harvest 36% complete, soybean harvest 80% complete,
while wheat sowing reached 5%. (BAGE – 24 05 2017)
26
Selected cereals trade for the past 4 weeks
Country
Crop
Quantity
(in t)
Price
($/t)
Egypt
Wheat
295 000
197-198 fob for EU
and Black Sea
185.4-186.7 fob US
Algeria
Wheat
470 000
198-199 c&f
Saudi Arabia
Barley
1,500,000
168-185 c&f
Turkey
Maize
180 000
194.4-196.1 c&f
Origins
-
ROM: 60 000
RUS: 60 000
UKR: 60 000
US: 115 000
June
optional
June
optional
July-Aug
Optional (RUS excl)
May/Jun
-
Delivery
27
World cereal prices ($/t)
300
280
260
$ / tonne
240
220
200
Maize - FR Bordeaux $ 189
Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen $ 187
180
Wheat - Black Sea Milling $ 186
Wheat - US SRW Gulf $ 178
160
140
Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed $ 165
Maize - US 3YC Gulf $ 160
28
CME wheat: open interest and
net position of traders
Last value from: 2017-05-23
0.8
100
Managed money - Net position
0.7
Millions of contracts (136 metric tonnes)
50
0.6
0
0.5
0.4
- 50
0.3
- 100
0.2
- 150
0.1
WHEAT - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
0.0
Thousands of contracts (of 136 metric tonnes)
Open Interest
- 200
29
US CME SRW wheat futures
150
400
DEC 2017 (R)
300
JUL 2018 (R)
270
250
220
150
100
170
50
Chicago (CME) SRW futures
0
07/14
120
01/15
07/15
01/16
07/16
01/17
180
100
174
170
$/t
200
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tonnes)
320
JUL 2017 (R)
$/t
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tonnes)
Daily volume
350
190
188
Last 14 days
50
161
160
Chicago (CME) SRW futures
0
13/05/17
17/05/17
21/05/17
150
25/05/17
30
US KCBT HRW wheat futures
50
300
JUL 2017 (R)
100
DEC 2017 (R)
280
JUL 2018 (R)
260
80
240
220
200
40
180
160
20
140
200
Last 14 days
40
190
189
30
180
176
20
170
10
161
160
$/t
60
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tonnes)
320
Daily Volume
$/t
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tonnes)
120
Kansas (KCBT) HRW Futures
0
07/14
120
01/15
07/15
01/16
07/16
01/17
0
13/05/17
150
17/05/17
21/05/17
25/05/17
31
EU Milling Wheat Futures
40
Daily Volume
SEP 2017 (R)
MAR 2018 (R)
SEP 2018 (R)
210
80
190
40
170
20
177
30
176
175
€/t
60
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 tonnes)
100
180
Last 14 days
€/t
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 tonnes)
120
20
170
10
168
Euronext - NYSE (MATIF Paris) milling w heat futures
0
01/14
150
07/14
01/15
07/15
01/16
07/16
01/17
0
13/05/17
165
19/05/17
25/05/17
32
CME maize: open interest and
positions of traders
Last value: 2017-05-23
3.0
500
Managed money - Net position
400
Millions of contracts (127 metric tonnes)
2.5
300
2.0
200
1.5
100
0
1.0
- 100
0.5
- 200
CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
0.0
Thousands of contracts (of 127 metric tonnes)
Open Interest
- 300
33
CME maize futures
225
640
200
175
320
150
160
125
Chicago (CME) Maize futures
100
06/13
12/13
06/14
12/14
06/15
12/15
06/16
12/16
163
160
300
155
155
$/t
480
0
12/12
165
Last 14 days
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 127 tonnes)
800
450
250
Daily volume
JUL 2017 (R)
DEC 2017 (R)
JUL 2018 (R)
$/t
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 127 tonnes)
960
150
150
147
145
Chicago (CME) Maize futures
0
13/05/17
17/05/17
21/05/17
140
25/05/17
34
EU maize futures
200
6
4
160
2
140
01/17 04/17
178
4
3
176
176
174
172
2
€/t
180
Euronext - NYSE (MATIF, Paris) maize futures
0
01/15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 10/16
180
Last 14 days
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 tonnes)
8
5
220
Daily Volume
JUN 2017 (R)
NOV 2017 (R)
JUN 2018 (R)
€/t
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 tonnes)
10
170
170
168
1
166
Euronext - NYSE (MATIF, Paris) maize futures
0
13/05/17
19/05/17
25/05/17
165
164
35
EU Cereals Trade
July-March 2016/17
36
EU 28 - Cereals exports and imports
including flour and other processed products in grain equivalent
60
50
million tonnes
40
EXPORTS
29.9
Coarse grain exports
30
20
Trade balance
10
Wheat exports
0
Wheat imports
10
20
IMPORTS
13.4
Coarse grain imports
30
Source: EUROSTAT - COMEXT
Marketing Year (July-June)
37
EU MS exporting all cereals (incl. flour and groats)
Others
21%
RO
24%
Others 25%
2016-17
29.9m t.
BG
6%
BG 4%
-7%
PL
9%
PL
3%
FR
21%
DE
19%
RO
FR
DE
PL
BG
Others
Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT)
5Y_TRMAVG
(2011 - 2015)
32.2m t.
DE
16%
5Y_TRMAVG
(Thousand tons) (2011 - 2015)
4 816
12 008
5 124
1 082
1 305
7 888
RO
15%
FR
37%
2016-17
7 153
6 400
5 768
2 615
1 628
6 363
49%
-47%
13%
142%
25%
-19%
38
EU MS importing all cereals (incl. flour and groats)
Others
20%
Others
17%
IT
25%
UK
7%
2016-17
13.4m t.
UK
7%
NL
16%
ES
24%
NL
13%
5Y_TRMAVG
(Thousand tons) (2011 - 2015)
Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT)
5Y_TRMAVG
(2011 - 2015)
13.0m t.
PT
9%
+3%
PT
8%
IT
ES
NL
PT
UK
Others
2 815
4 222
1 751
1 108
851
2 240
IT
22%
ES
32%
2016-17
3 410
3 219
2 119
1 053
985
2 625
21%
-24%
21%
-5%
16%
17%
39
EU MS exporting common wheat (incl. flour and groats)
LT
5%
BG
7%
Others
10%
Others
14%
RO
25%
LT 7%
2016-17
19.8m t.
PL
13%
BG 4%
PL 5%
-5%
FR
18%
Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT)
RO
13%
5Y_TRMAVG
(2011 - 2015)
20.9m t.
DE
17%
DE
22%
5Y_TRMAVG
(Thousand tons) (2011 - 2015)
RO
DE
FR
PL
BG
LT
Others
2 615
3 563
8 442
964
802
1 556
2 958
FR
40%
2016-17
5 058
4 287
3 567
2 511
1 401
936
2 088
93%
20%
-58%
160%
75%
-40%
-29%
40
EU common wheat (incl. flour and groats) export destinations
Algeria
18%
Others
50%
2016-17
19.8m t.
Algeria
19%
Saudi
Arabia
14%
-5%
Others
56%
Vietnam
7%
5Y_TRMAVG
(2011 - 2015)
20.9m t.
Saudi Arabia
7%
Egypt
10%
Morocco
8%
Egypt
Morocco 6%
5%
5Y_TRMAVG
(Thousand tons) (2011 - 2015)
Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT)
Algeria
Saudi Arabia
Vietnam
Egypt
Morocco
Others
3 976
1 508
53
1 995
1 625
11 745
Vietnam 0%
2016-17
3 500
2 718
1 380
1 214
1 051
9 984
-12%
80%
2488%
-39%
-35%
-15%
41
EU MS importing maize (incl. Processed products)
Others
18%
UK
6%
Others
17%
ES
27%
UK
6%
2016-17
8.8m t.
PT
11%
PT
11%
-1%
IT
15%
NL
23%
5Y_TRMAVG
(2011 - 2015)
8.9m t.
IT
12%
5Y_TRMAVG
(Thousand tons) (2011 - 2015)
ES
NL
IT
PT
UK
Others
Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT)
ES
35%
3 114
1 640
1 067
1 005
499
1 539
NL
19%
2016-17
2 341
2 014
1 369
1 000
499
1 587
-25%
23%
28%
-1%
0%
3%
42
EU maize (incl. Processed products) import origins
United
States
6%
Canada
7%
Russia
9%
Others
9%
Canada 2%
2016-17
8.8m t.
-1%
Russia
6%
Ukraine
59%
Brazil
12%
Brazil
10%
5Y_TRMAVG
(Thousand tons) (2011 - 2015)
Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT)
Others
14%
United States
3%
Ukraine
Brazil
Russia
Canada
United States
Others
5 562
1 081
534
165
316
1 207
5Y_TRMAVG
(2011 - 2015)
8.9m t.
Ukraine
63%
2016-17
5 166
855
840
620
528
802
-7%
-21%
57%
275%
67%
-34%
43
EU cereals trade 2016/17
(update of Situation at 24/05/2017)
● Imports:




15.6m t (18.9m t last year; 13.9m t two years ago)
2.99m t soft wheat
1.59m t durum wheat
10.5m t maize
0.39m t barley
● Exports:




33.7m t (44.2m t last year; 45.1m t two years ago)
22.8m t soft wheat
4.8m t barley
1.34m t durum wheat
2.03m t maize
● So far, the EU is a net cereal exporter of 18.1m t, against 25.3m t last
year and 31.2m t two years ago.
44
Source: AMIS - Market Monitor
45
Conclusions
 - Weather conditions and currency movements were the main
market drivers lately





- On fob basis US SRW wheat remained most competitive
- On fob basis US and BRA maize most competitive
- Conditions continued mostly favourable in ARG/BRA, while
adverse weather raised concerns mainly in US/CAN
- USDA/IGC: both wheat and maize output to decrease in
2017/18, however supplies to remain ample due to large stocks
- After 9 months of MY 2016/17 the EU is a net exporter of
cereals but the trade surplus is lower than past MYs

46
Thank you for your attention!
Presentations & Balance sheets
available at:
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/index_en.htm