Comparing Opinions of
“Clashing” Civilizations Between
Western and Islamic Worlds
Lauren A. Walton
Brian M. Wells
Allan L. McCutcheon
Gallup Research Center
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Survey Research and Methodology Program
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Clash of Civilizations
• Samuel Huntington (1993a, 1993b, 1996)
• Conflict in the post-cold war world will
occur between the fault lines of culture.
• The broadest identity below humanity.
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Huntington’s Civilizations
Image from www.wikipedia.org/clashofcivilizations
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Western Countries of Interest
United Kingdom
United Sates
Belgium
France
Italy
Image from www.wikipedia.org/clashofcivilizations
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Islamic Countries of Interest
Pakistan
Saudi Arabia
Indonesia
Image from www.wikipedia.org/clashofcivilizations
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Religious Breakdown: Islamic Countries
Pakistan
Christian
Muslim
Other
Department of State
Indonesia
Saudi Arabia
Department of State
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CIA World Fact Book
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Religious Breakdown: Western Countries
Christian
Muslim
Other
Census 2001
Wikipedia
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Prior Research
• Qualitative analyses have attempted to
categorize world events to see if they fit
within Huntington's hypothesis
• Quantitative analysis has set out to
empirically test
• Our prior analysis only used the United
States to represent Western civilization
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Research Goals
• Expand representation of Western
civilization.
• Can we condense countries into their
civilizations?
• How is “clash” perceived in these
civilizations?
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Data Set and Methods
• Gallup World Poll Dataset
– Probability based, multinational survey
– Data was collected 2007- 2009
– N=6,707
• Logistic Regression
– Demographic Model
– “Clash” Model
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Dependent Variable
Conflict Avoidable (%)
Indonesia
87.0
Pakistan
66.4
Saudi Arabia
50.1
Belgium
82.5
Italy
88.1
France
85.5
United Kingdom
68.5
United States
51.5
0
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Conflict Not Avoidable
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60
80
100
Conflict Avoidable
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Demographic Variables
• Demographic
– Age
– Gender
(Male)
– Religiosity
(Gallup scale measure)
– Education
(Secondary, Post-secondary)
• Country Indicators
– United States is the reference category
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Condensing Countries to
Civilizations
• Ran previous logistic regression
– Goal: to see if civilization as a whole had
similar beliefs in relation to the variables of
interest
• In general for demographics, civilizations
believe similarly about “clash”
– But religiosity behaves differently in European
countries compared with the US in relation to
magnitude and direction
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Demographic Model
Age
0.008***
Gender
-0.009
Religiosity
0.159***
Secondary Education
0.070
Four Year Education
-0.250**
Male*Islamic
0.466***
Religiosity*Islamic
-0.345***
Religiosity*Europe
-0.402***
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* p≤.05; **p≤.01; ***p≤.001
A positive value
increases the
belief that conflict
is not avoidable
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Independent “Clash” Variables
“Clash” Question Stems
1. Do you think interaction between the
Muslim world and the Western world is
getting better or getting worse?
2. Do you think the Muslim world and the
Western world are getting along well with
each other today?
Response Options
Better
Worse
3. Do you think the Muslim world is
committed to improving interactions
between the Muslim and Western worlds?
No
Yes
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Not Getting Along
Today
Getting Along Today
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Independent “Clash” Variables
“Clash” Question Stems
Response Options
4. Do you think the Western world is
committed to improving interactions
between the Muslim and Western worlds?
No
5. Do you believe the Muslim world
respects the West?
No
6. Do you believe the Western world
respects the Muslim world?
No
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Yes
Yes
Yes
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“Clash” Model
Do Not Get Along
Interactions are Worse
West Not Committed
Muslim Not Committed
West Not Respect Muslim
Muslim Not Respect West
West Not Committed*Islamic
West Not Committed*Europe
Muslim Not Committed*Islamic
Muslim Not Committed*Europe
West Not Respect* Islamic
Muslim Not Respect*Islamic
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0.253*
0.476***
-0.424***
0.685***
-0.309**
0.873***
0.855***
0.691***
-0.194
-0.74**
0.715***
-0.578***
* p≤.05; **p≤.01; ***p≤.001
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“Clash” Model
Do Not Get Along
Interactions are Worse
West Not Committed
Muslim Not Committed
West Not Respect Muslim
Muslim Not Respect West
West Not Committed*Islamic
West Not Committed*Europe
Muslim Not Committed*Islamic
Muslim Not Committed*Europe
West Not Respect* Islamic
Muslim Not Respect*Islamic
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0.253*
0.476***
-0.424***
0.685***
-0.309**
0.873***
0.855***
0.691***
-0.194
-0.74**
0.715***
-0.578***
* p≤.05; **p≤.01; ***p≤.001
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“Clash” Model
Do Not Get Along
Interactions are Worse
West Not Committed
Muslim Not Committed
West Not Respect Muslim
Muslim Not Respect West
West Not Committed*Islamic
West Not Committed*Europe
Muslim Not Committed*Islamic
Muslim Not Committed*Europe
West Not Respect* Islamic
Muslim Not Respect*Islamic
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0.253*
0.476***
-0.424***
0.685***
-0.309**
0.873***
0.855***
0.691***
-0.194
-0.74**
0.715***
-0.578***
* p≤.05; **p≤.01; ***p≤.001
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Condensing Countries to
Civilizations
• With the “clash” variables again we see
civilizations behave similarly
• In relation to commitment, Europe
behaved differently from the US
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Model Improvement
• 8.22% explained by the demographic model
• 14.46% explained by the “Clash” model
• The fit of the model dramatically improves
when we include the “Clash” variables
– Likelihood ratio chi-square = 539.31 (12),
p <.0001
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Conclusions
Point 1: Though civilizations have generally the same directional effects,
each start at very different levels of belief on the avoidance of conflict.
Point 2: The United States and Europe have some deviant perceptions in
relation to avoidance of conflict; it is not an exact map.
Point 2a: Religiosity in Muslim and European nations is very different from
the United States.
Point 3: The United States suggests that a lack of commitment to
improving interactions from the West actually reduces conflict; Europe and
Muslim nations disagree.
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Conclusions
Point 4: In relation to Muslim commitment to improving interactions,
Europe’s perception of the avoidability of conflict between civilizations
in not changed regardless of their commitment.
Point 5a: The Muslim world’s lack of respect for the West does nothing
to sway the Muslim world in changing the unavoidability of conflict; the
West disagrees.
Point 5b: The Western world suggests that the Wests lack of respect
actually reduces probability of conflict; The Muslim world disagrees.
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Clashing Civilizations?
• Maybe…?
• Generally, civilizations behave similarly in
this analysis
• Analysis allows to see an overall trend for
civilization but it does not allow us to see
the fighting factions within “clashing”
civilizations
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Thanks!
Lauren A. Walton
[email protected]
Brian M. Wells
[email protected]
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