Student Academic Achievement
M-Step 2015 Data Analysis
Hale Area Schools, January 2016
Created by Superintendent Loren Vannest
Trend Analysis
• Districtwide Trends
• Grade Level Trends
• Subject Area Trends
All Grades, All Subjects, Proficiency Rate
42%
40%
y=
-0.0003x3
+
0.0032x2
- 0.0011x + 0.3453
R² = 0.7409
37%
37%
37%
39%
37%
36%
36%
34%
34%
33%
32%
30%
29%
y = 0.0008x3 - 0.0097x2 + 0.0383x + 0.2304
R² = 0.6052
29%
27%
27%
26%
25%
22%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
Hale Area Schools
2010-11
Michigan
2011-12
Poly. (Hale Area Schools)
2012-13
Poly. (Michigan)
2013-14
2014-15
All Grades, All Subjects, Proficiency Rate Above or Below State Average
0.0%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
-2.0%
-4.0%
-4.4%
-6.0%
Axis Title
-5.6%
-6.8%
-7.4%
-8.0%
-8.4%
-9.1%
-10.0%
-10.0%
-12.0%
y = -0.0002x4 + 0.0042x3 - 0.0316x2 + 0.0823x - 0.1442
R² = 0.5754
-12.4%
-14.0%
Axis Title
All Grades All Subjects Composite Proficiency, Above or Below, State Average
Poly. (All Grades All Subjects Composite Proficiency, Above or Below, State Average)
All Grades, All Subjects, Composite Proficiency Rate
as a Percentage of State Average Composite Proficiency Rate
100%
90%
86%
80%
80%
75%
81%
88%
y = -0.0007x4 + 0.0155x3 - 0.1096x2 + 0.2845x + 0.55
R² = 0.5981
75%
74%
70%
67%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
District Trend Analysis Conclusions
• Year over Year Absolute Proficiency:
• Slight Decline (1%)
• Year Over Year Relative Proficiency:
• Slight Increase (1.2%)
• Long Term Trend-line:
• Increasing Absolute and Relative Proficiency
• Proficiency Gap Analysis:
• District Continues to Close the Proficiency Gap (relative to statewide)
• Rate of Improvement Slowing
Elementary/Middle School Trend Analysis
3rd-8th All Subjects Composite Proficiency
45.0%
39.1%
40.0%
36.5%
35.0%
30.0%
37.5%
37.3%
40.1%
37.0%
36.0%
34.2%
37.3%
34.1%
32.9%
29.8%
28.7%
30.6%
28.8%
27.3%
y = 0.0006x3 - 0.0074x2 + 0.0341x + 0.249
R² = 0.5708
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
Hale Area Schools
2010-11
Michigan
2011-12
Poly. (Hale Area Schools)
2012-13
Poly. (Michigan)
2013-14
2014-15
3rd-8th All Subjects Composite Proficiency, Above or Below, State Average
0.0%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-3.0%
-3.2%
-4.0%
-4.6%
-5.0%
-6.0%
y = 0.0009x3 - 0.0104x2 + 0.0344x - 0.0973
R² = 0.5271
-6.2%
-7.0%
-8.0%
-6.9%
-7.8%
-8.4%
-9.0%
-8.5%
3rd-8th All Subjects Composite Proficiency as a Percentage of State Average Proficiency
100%
95%
92%
89%
90%
88%
85%
80%
y = 0.002x3 - 0.0233x2 + 0.0835x + 0.7309
R² = 0.44
83%
80%
79%
77%
78%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
Elementary/Middle School Trend Analysis
Conclusions
• Year over Year Absolute Proficiency:
• Declined (2.9%)
• Year Over Year Relative Proficiency:
• Slight Decline (0.2%)
• Long Term Trend-line:
• Increasing Absolute and Relative Proficiency
• Proficiency Gap Analysis:
• Elem./MS Held Gains (from previous cycle) that Substantially (but not
entirely) Closed the Proficiency Gap (relative to statewide)
High School Trend Analysis
11th Grade All Subject Proficiency Proficiency Rates
45%
40%
36.7%
35%
40.3%
37.8%
34.0%
34.7%
37.8%
36.5%
35.3%
28%
30%
28%
24%
25%
20%
21%
20%
20%
17%
15%
10%
10%
5%
0%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
Hale Area Schools
2010-11
Michigan
2011-12
Poly. (Hale Area Schools)
2012-13
Poly. (Michigan)
2013-14
2014-15
11th Grade All Subjects Proficiency, Above or Below, State Average
0%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
-5%
-10%
-15%
-9%
-14%
-9%
-14%
-16%
-16%
-18%
-20%
y = 0.0021x3 - 0.0227x2 + 0.0597x - 0.1856
R² = 0.3209
-25%
-28%
-30%
11th Grade Composite Proficiency
as a Percentage of State Average Composite Proficiency
100%
90%
80%
75%
75%
70%
60%
58%
y = 0.0051x3 - 0.0555x2 + 0.1519x + 0.4688
R² = 0.3193
59%
60%
56%
48%
50%
40%
30%
26%
20%
10%
0%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
ACT College Readiness Composite
25.0%
22.0%
y = 0.0002x3 - 0.0022x2 + 0.0134x + 0.1341
R² = 0.9799
20.0%
17.3%
17.7%
20.0%
18.1%
16.0%
15.0%
14.8%
14.9%
13.5%
11.1%
11.0%
10.0%
y = 0.0017x3 - 0.0217x2 + 0.0862x - 0.0526
R² = 0.3458
5.0%
3.6%
2.8%
2.6%
2.0%
0.0%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
0.0%
2011-12
2012-13
HAS College Ready
Statewide College Ready
Poly. (HAS College Ready)
Poly. (Statewide College Ready)
2013-14
2014-15
ACT Composite College Ready,
as a Percentage of Statewide College Ready
100%
90%
78%
80%
70%
60%
56%
50%
50%
y = 0.009x3 - 0.1187x2 + 0.4794x - 0.2667
R² = 0.2252
40%
30%
24%
18%
20%
14%
14%
10%
0%
0%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
High School Trend Analysis Conclusions
• Year over Year Absolute Proficiency:
• M-Step Increased (4%)
• ACT College Readiness Very Slight Decrease (0.1%)
• Year Over Year Relative Proficiency:
• M-Step Increased (5.5%)
• ACT College Readiness Decreased (2.1%)
• Long Term Trend-line:
• M-Step Increasing Absolute and Relative Proficiency
• ACT College Readiness Increasing
• Proficiency Gap Analysis:
• M-Step: Closing Proficiency Gap
• ACT College Readiness: Gap Persisting
Subject Trend Analysis
3rd-8th Math Proficiency
45.0%
40.9%
41.1%
39.7%
40.0%
37.3%
37.7%
35.8%
37.5%
36.6%
37.0%
35.0%
32.4%
30.0%
27.5%
24.2%
25.0%
23.0%
22.0%
20.0%
20.0%
17.9%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Hale Area Schools
2011-12
Michigan
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
3rd-8th Grade Math Proficiency, Above or Below, State Average
5.0%
2.7%
0.0%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
-3.7%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-12.9%
-13.4%
-13.5%
-15.0%
-14.5%
-14.6%
-17.3%
-20.0%
2014-15
3rd-8th Math Composite Proficiency as a Percentage of State Average Proficiency
120.0%
107.3%
100.0%
91.1%
80.0%
67.3%
64.2%
64.1%
60.1%
60.0%
55.2%
53.5%
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
3rd-8th English Language Arts Proficiency
75.0%
69.3%
70.0%
66.9%
65.0%
64.2%
65.0%
62.1%
60.7%
59.6%
60.0%
56.7%
55.0%
57.1%
61.1%
55.7%
55.8%
53.1%
50.3%
50.0%
47.9%
45.0%
40.0%
38.4%
35.0%
30.0%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Hale Area Schools
2011-12
Michigan
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
3rd-8th Grade E.L.A. Proficiency, Above or Below, State Average Proficiency
0.0%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
-1.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-3.6%
-5.0%
-5.0%
-5.1%
-6.0%
-7.0%
-6.8%
-7.3%
-8.0%
-9.0%
-9.2%
-9.5%
-10.0%
3rd-8th E.L.A. Composite Proficiency as a Percentage of State Average Proficiency
100.0%
95.0%
98.4%
93.6%
92.7%
91.8%
89.1%
90.0%
88.0%
85.8%
85.0%
80.1%
80.0%
75.0%
70.0%
65.0%
60.0%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
Relative Strengths
• 3rd Grade Math (160% of Statewide Proficiency)
• 3rd Grade English Language Arts (113% of Statewide Proficiency)
• 5th Grade Math (141% of Statewide Proficiency)
• 7th Grade Math (4th Consecutive Year of Proficiency Increase)
• 7th Grade Science (113% of Statewide Proficiency)
• 11th Grade Science (4th Consecutive Year of Proficiency Increase)
• 11th Grade Social Studies (Highest Proficiency Rate in Last Decade)
• 3rd-8th Grade Composite (4% Proficiency Gap – Smallest Gap in Last
Decade)
Relative Weaknesses
• 4th Grade Math
• 6th Grade English Language Arts
• 8th Grade English Language Arts
• 11th Grade Math
• Only 36% of statewide proficiency rate (28.5% statewide, 10.3% Hale)
• 11th Grade M-Step Composite
• 10% proficiency gap (improving, but larger than 4% gap for 3rd-8th composite)
• 11th Grade ACT Composite College Ready
• Only 50% of statewide rate (22% statewide, 11% Hale)
Primary Focus For Future Improvement
• English Language Arts K-12
• Declining proficiency trend
• Possible misalignment with M-Step?
• H.S. Math
• Relatively low proficiency (Class of 2016, 36% of statewide)
• H.S. Science
• Relatively low proficiency (Class of 2016, 59% of statewide)
• College Readiness
• Lowest indicator (Class of 2016, 50% of statewide rate)
Elementary All Stars
• Melissa Blomquist (3rd Grade Math & English Language Arts)
• Dianna Spiece
• Molly Zarb (3rd Grade Math & English Language Arts)
• Beth Streeter
• Dawn Rasch (3rd Grade Math & English Language Arts)
• Cathleen Turland
• Julie Look (3rd Grade Math & English Language Arts)
• Jane Millard
• Mark Blomquist (5th & 6th Grade Math)
HS/MS All Stars
• Elisha Davidson (7th Grade Science)
• Katherine Smillie (7th Grade Math)
• Toni Nieman (7th Grade Math)
• Andrew Katterman (11th Grade Social Studies)
• Craig Histed (11th Grade Science)
Absolute Standing Analysis
(Without Reference to Demographics)
We stwood
Beecher
Muskegon He ights
Benton Harbor
0.0%
East Grand Rapids
Novi
Troy
Okemos
Northville
Spring Lake
Hasle tt
Fores t Hills
Rochester
Byron Ce nter
Dexter
Ann Arbor
Birmingham
Grosse Pointe
Chelsea
Saugatuck
Plymouth-Canton
Hu dsonville
South Lyon
Saline
Bloomfie ld Hills
Brighton
Frankenmuth
St. Joseph
Houghton-P ortage
Lake Orion
North Muskegon
Berkle y
Glen Lake
Midland
East Lansing
Cale donia
Williamston
Mattawan
Grand Blanc
Jenison
Rockford
Black River
Zeeland
Fowler
Portage
Edwardsburg
Lakes hore (Berrie n)
Petoskey
Elk Rapids
Grosse Ile
Freeland
Royal Oak
Harbor Springs
Les Cheneaux
Grand Haven
Ne w Lothrop
Gull Lake
Hartland
Bridgman
Boyne City
Yale
Harbor Beach
Ludington
Walled Lake
Allendale
Grandville
Pewamo-We stphalia
Olivet
Lowell
Marysville
Oxford
Pen twate r
Plainwe ll
Thornapple Kellogg
Hamilton
Marshall
Laingsburg
Hancock
DeW itt
Ne w Buffalo
Goodrich
Ots ego
Marquette
Flushing
Bullock Creek
Mason (Ingham)
Iron Mountain
Armanda
Coopersville
Crawford AuSable
Lake Fen ton
Frankfort-Elbe rta
Avondale
We st Ottawa
Chesaning Union
Kingsley
Bath
Clarkston
Portland
Hu ron Valley
Gaylord
Johannes burg-Lewis ton
East China
Fenton
Vicksburg
Lakewood
Howell
We st Bloomfield
Charlevoix
Davison
Farmington
Linden
Bre itung Township
Almont
Bedford
Calume t Laurium Kewe enaw
Chippewa Valley
Munising
Swan Valley
Tren ton
Livonia
Blis sfie ld
Utica
Bad Axe
Anchor Bay
Hopkins
Schoolcraft
Ida
Sandusky
Deckerville
Dundee
Stephenson
Brimley
Parchment
Tecumseh
Madis on (Le newee)
St. Johns
Dearborn
Tahquamenon
Leland
NICE Community
Manche ster
Manis tique
Cas s City
Ubly
Ce dar Springs
Allen Park
Pinckney
Whitehall
Brown City
Claws on
Traverse City
Lakeview (Macomb)
Hanover-H orton
Roscommon
Sault Ste M arie
Clare
Ne gaunee
Saginaw Township
Cadillac
Clinton
Tawas
Stockbridge
Wayland Union
Sparta
Swartz Creek
North Dickins on
Bellaire
Algonac
Montague
Napoleon
L'Anse Creu se
East Jordan
Ishpeming
Milan
We st Branch-Rose City
Berrie n Springs
Watervliet
Grand Led ge
Ithaca
Ess exville-Hampton
Standis h-Sterling
Northport
Charlotte
Ellsworth
Columbia
Buchanan
Alpen a
Quincy
North Branch
Gladwin
North Cen tral
Romeo
Manis te e
Gobles
Grass Lake
Mason Consolidated (Monroe)
Memphis
Homer
Coldwater
Mount Pleas ant
Union City
Elkton-Pigeon
Lake Linden-Hubbell
Reese
Richmond
Fremont
Fraser
Ovid-Elsie
Flat Rock
Clio
Mona Shores
Engadine
Unionville-Se bewaing
Riverview
Dansville
We stern
Hu ron
Ionia
Hemlock
Birch Run
Athen s
Cre stwood
Adams Township
Niles
Waverly
Lakes hore (Macomb)
Ke nowa Hills
Lawton
Ke ntwood
Hastings
Decatur
Superior Cen tral
Beal City
Northview
Vassar
Onaway
Holt
Summerfield
St. Ignace
St. Charles
We bbe rville
Hillsdale
River Valley
Ewen -Trout Creek
Kingston
Grant
Pine River
Onsted
Croswell-Lexington
Thre e Rivers
Escanaba
Onekama
Byron Area
Alma
Fruitport
Norway-Vulcan
Fairvie w
Springport
Bronson
Fores t P ark
Merrill
Whitmore Lake
Mio-AuSable
Pinconning
Holly Area
Northwest
Gibralter
Martin
Benzie County
Marlette
Airport
Saranac
Constantine
Posen
Lamphere
Leslie
Big Rapids
Bangor Township
We st Iron County
Addison
Suttons Bay
Capac
Bay City
Gladstone
Men ominee
Pen nfield
Mason County Eastern
Akron-Fairgrove
Camden-Frontier
Sand Creek
Paw Paw
Jefferson (M onroe)
Cheboygan
Ce ntral Lake
Harper Creek
Fowlerville
Warren Woods
Marcellus
Mason County Central
Hale
Rudyard
Beave rton
Cars on City-Crystal
Ke nt City
Bre cken ridge
Alanson
Bark Rive r - Harris
Cas eville
Sturgis
Fulton
Holland City
South Haven
Comstock Park
Britton Deerfie ld
Hart
Lake City
Chasse ll
Ce ntreville
Ke ars ley
Lawre nce
Shep herd
Jone sville
Corunna
Boyne Falls
Alcona
St. Louis
Reeths-Puffer
Pells ton
Chippewa Hills
Gales burg-Augusta
Oscoda
Bessse mer
Raven na
Waterford
Meridian
Ne wago
Port Hu ron
Allegan
McBain
Lapeer
Shelby
Mancelona
Eaton Rapids
Michigan Center
LakeVille
Comstock
Belding
Mes ick
Ne w H ave n
South Lake
Manton
Ontonagon
Gree nville
Carney-N adeau
Caro
Claren ce ville
White Pigeon
Ironwood
Hu dson
Rapid River
Kalamazoo
Perry
Brandywine
Morrice
Wyandotte
Tri County
Inlay City
Climax-Scotts
L'Anse
Dryden
Warren
Au Gres -Sims
Garden City
Colon
Coleman
Litchfield
Millington
Rogers City
Farwell
Adrian
Monroe
Coloma
Holton
Owosso
Durand
Potterville
Concord
Wyoming
Ashle y
Dowagiac Union
Maple Valley
Carman-Ainsworth
Men don
Lincoln Consolidated
Whittemore -Pre scott
Bloomingdale
Fores t Area
Dearborn He ights
Vande rcook Lake
Peck
Wolve rine
White Cloud
Delton Kellogg
Kalkaska
North Huron
More nci
Marion
Lakeview (Montcalm)
Ce ntral Montcalm
Orchard View
Inland Lakes
Jackson
Van Buren
Melvindale-N orth Allen Park
North Adams-Jerome
Gwinn
Montrose
Houghton Lake
Vestaburg
Reading
Ferndale
Wakefield-Marenis co
Ke lloggsville
Reed City
Buckley
Godwin He ights
Ce ntral Line
Kaleva Norman Dickson
Taylor
Fennville
Gen esee
Harrison
Montabella
Cas sopolis
Morle y Stanwood
South Red ford
Cars onville-Port Sanilac
Pickford
Eau Claire
Bear Lake
Wayne-W estland
Hes peria
Hillman
Big Bay de Noc
Bellevue
Mid-Pen insula
Mayville
Tekonsha
Mount Morris
Baraga
Saginaw
Southfield
Pittsford
Bentley
Hamtramck
Evart
Madis on
Oakridge
Godfre y-Le e
Bangor (Van Bure n)
Carrollton
Haz el P ark
Atlanta
Roseville
Baldwin
Fitzgerald
Romulus
Atherton
Walkerville
East Jackson
Covert
Grand Rapids
Hartford
Clintondale
Lincoln Park
Bendle
Harper W oods
Yps ilanti
Redford U nion
Van Dyke
Battle Cre ek
Lansing
Ecorse
We stwood Heights
Oak Park
Muskegon
Mount Clemen s
Bridgeport-Spaulding
Detroit City
River Rouge
East Detroit
Flint
Pontiac
Detroit Community
Composite Proficiency
Michigan Districts Composite 2015 M-Step Proficiency
(All Grades and Subjects Tested)
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
Hale, 33.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
Relative Standing Analysis
(Factoring In Economic Disadvantage)
0.0%
Economic Disadvantage
Muskegon He ights
Covert
Baldwin
Hamtramck
River Rouge
Ashle y
Eau Claire
Godfre y-Le e
Mount Clemen s
Benton Harbor
Godwin He ights
Bendle
Ecorse
Whittemore -Pre scott
We stwood Heights
Flint
Muskegon
Walkerville
Beecher
East Detroit
Fitzgerald
Saginaw
Bloomingdale
Mount Morris
Lincoln Park
Detroit City
Grand Rapids
Melvindale-N orth Allen Park
Romulus
Hartford
Ke lloggsville
Hale
Wolve rine
Gen esee
Bridgeport-Spaulding
Mason County Eastern
Haz el P ark
Clintondale
Harper W oods
Bangor (Van Bure n)
Roseville
Redford U nion
Harrison
Houghton Lake
Taylor
Van Dyke
Pontiac
Dowagiac Union
Lansing
Mancelona
Wyoming
Mes ick
Battle Cre ek
Fennville
Adams Township
Akron-Fairgrove
Oscoda
Kalamazoo
Cas eville
Kaleva Norman Dickson
Evart
Orchard View
Cas sopolis
Carman-Ainsworth
Fores t Area
White Pigeon
Detroit Community
Madis on
We stwood
Holton
Atlanta
Oak Park
White Cloud
Jackson
Tekonsha
Farwell
Dearborn
Yps ilanti
Fairvie w
Dearborn He ights
Au Gres -Sims
Marion
Bentley
Cre stwood
Hart
Vassar
Comstock
Ewen -Trout Creek
Mio-AuSable
Ce ntral Line
Atherton
Kingston
Morle y Stanwood
Holland City
Decatur
Gwinn
Ke ntwood
Bellevue
Roscommon
Litchfield
Wayne-W estland
Brandywine
Montabella
Cheboygan
Beave rton
Manton
Oakridge
Engadine
Belding
Carney-N adeau
Lake City
South Haven
Sturgis
We st Branch-Rose City
Hes peria
Mayville
Rudyard
Vande rcook Lake
Baraga
Brown City
Vestaburg
We st Iron County
Ke ars ley
Ne wago
Chippewa Hills
Hillsdale
Camden-Frontier
Onaway
Owosso
Montrose
Bronson
Ce ntral Montcalm
Ferndale
Calume t Laurium Kewe enaw
Marlette
Springport
Peck
Gladwin
East Jackson
South Red ford
Hillman
Madis on (Le newee)
East Jordan
Ellsworth
Lawre nce
Pells ton
Niles
Marcellus
Southfield
Caro
Berrie n Springs
Crawford AuSable
Benzie County
Coloma
Cars on City-Crystal
South Lake
Big Bay de Noc
Cars onville-Port Sanilac
North Huron
Reading
Warren
Northport
Alanson
Shelby
Ironwood
Lakeview (Montcalm)
Adrian
North Adams-Jerome
Pittsford
St. Louis
Morrice
Parchment
Millington
Manis tique
Mason County Central
More nci
Reed City
Watervliet
Lawton
Colon
Cas s City
Deckerville
Delton Kellogg
Homer
Union City
Merrill
Pinconning
Sandusky
Inland Lakes
Constantine
Alcona
Claren ce ville
Grant
Coldwater
Pine River
Thre e Rivers
Big Rapids
Allegan
Wyandotte
Ionia
Montague
Ontonagon
Waverly
Posen
Kingsley
River Valley
Alma
LakeVille
Bark Rive r - Harris
Monroe
We st Ottawa
Port Hu ron
Inlay City
Lake Linden-Hubbell
Cadillac
Comstock Park
Gales burg-Augusta
Hu dson
Tri County
Brimley
Rogers City
Bear Lake
Warren Woods
Fores t P ark
Ke nt City
L'Anse
Standis h-Sterling
Manis te e
Bre cken ridge
Coleman
Buckley
Stephenson
Tahquamenon
St. Ignace
Waterford
Kalkaska
Carrollton
North Cen tral
Tawas
Gree nville
St. Charles
Clio
Athen s
Munising
We bbe rville
Bay City
Johannes burg-Lewis ton
Ishpeming
Buchanan
Concord
Harbor Beach
Croswell-Lexington
Unionville-Se bewaing
Suttons Bay
Men ominee
Les Cheneaux
Chesaning Union
Jone sville
Ke nowa Hills
Durand
Maple Valley
Pickford
Ce ntral Lake
McBain
Michigan Center
Van Buren
Elkton-Pigeon
Ludington
Rapid River
Bangor Township
Fremont
Hastings
Corunna
Lapeer
Alpen a
Garden City
Lincoln Consolidated
Fruitport
Lamphere
Gobles
Addison
Ubly
Airport
Capac
Boyne Falls
Ne w H ave n
Gaylord
Napoleon
Wakefield-Marenis co
Raven na
Frankfort-Elbe rta
Ce dar Springs
Birch Run
Shep herd
Clare
Quincy
Ce ntreville
Reese
Pen twate r
North Branch
North Dickins on
Onekama
Swartz Creek
Fulton
Wayland Union
Bessse mer
Charlotte
Reeths-Puffer
Sand Creek
Mid-Pen insula
Holly Area
Men don
Fraser
Escanaba
Martin
Whitehall
Northwest
Superior Cen tral
Leslie
Meridian
Perry
Sault Ste M arie
Saranac
Pen nfield
Sparta
Iron Mountain
Algonac
Bad Axe
Paw Paw
We stern
Eaton Rapids
Bre itung Township
Potterville
Bullock Creek
Traverse City
Chasse ll
Olivet
Climax-Scotts
Mason Consolidated (Monroe)
Northview
Ovid-Elsie
Norway-Vulcan
Bellaire
Saginaw Township
Hancock
Whitmore Lake
Jefferson (M onroe)
Columbia
Boyne City
Ithaca
Ne w Buffalo
Lakewood
Memphis
Mount Pleas ant
Stockbridge
Mona Shores
Lakes hore (Macomb)
Holt
Ots ego
Leland
Flat Rock
Bridgman
Charlevoix
Davison
Gladstone
Lakeview (Macomb)
Yale
Flushing
Britton Deerfie ld
Petoskey
Byron Area
Beal City
Dryden
Plainwe ll
Marshall
Hanover-H orton
Edwardsburg
Swan Valley
Harper Creek
Coopersville
Hopkins
Riverview
Claws on
Fowlerville
Elk Rapids
Grand Haven
Allen Park
Portland
Hemlock
Dansville
Blis sfie ld
L'Anse Creu se
Onsted
East Lansing
NICE Community
Avondale
Ess exville-Hampton
Vicksburg
Grandville
Bath
East China
Glen Lake
Ne gaunee
Thornapple Kellogg
Saugatuck
Houghton-P ortage
Allendale
Milan
Lowell
Howell
Utica
Richmond
Grand Blanc
Hu ron
Mason (Ingham)
Lakes hore (Berrie n)
Tecumseh
North Muskegon
Byron Ce nter
St. Johns
Marquette
Hu ron Valley
Gibralter
Summerfield
We st Bloomfield
Dundee
Marysville
Midland
Grass Lake
Harbor Springs
Fenton
Hamilton
Livonia
Jenison
Clinton
Romeo
Grand Led ge
Chippewa Valley
Walled Lake
Tren ton
Anchor Bay
Berkle y
Hasle tt
Portage
Zeeland
Ne w Lothrop
Almont
St. Joseph
Linden
Ann Arbor
Laingsburg
Manche ster
Farmington
Royal Oak
Bedford
Lake Fen ton
Schoolcraft
Gull Lake
Lake Orion
Clarkston
Armanda
Cale donia
Black River
Goodrich
Oxford
Pinckney
Ida
Spring Lake
South Lyon
Okemos
Freeland
Williamston
Pewamo-We stphalia
Plymouth-Canton
Hu dsonville
Frankenmuth
Fowler
Mattawan
Hartland
Grosse Pointe
DeW itt
Rochester
Troy
Rockford
Brighton
Chelsea
Saline
Fores t Hills
Bloomfie ld Hills
Dexter
Grosse Ile
Novi
Birmingham
Northville
East Grand Rapids
Composite Proficiency
Michigan School Districts Economic Disadvantaged Rate 2014
100.0%
90.0%
Hale, 77.9%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Economic Disadvantaged Rate (Lowest Left, Highest Right)
Muskegon He ights
Covert
Baldwin
Hamtramck
River Rouge
Ashle y
Eau Claire
Godfre y-Le e
Mount Clemen s
Benton Harbor
Godwin He ights
Bendle
Ecorse
Whittemore -Pre scott
We stwood Heights
Flint
Muskegon
Walkerville
Beecher
East Detroit
Fitzgerald
Saginaw
Bloomingdale
Mount Morris
Lincoln Park
Detroit City
Grand Rapids
Melvindale-N orth Allen Park
Romulus
Hartford
Ke lloggsville
Hale
Wolve rine
Gen esee
Bridgeport-Spaulding
Mason County Eastern
Haz el P ark
Clintondale
Harper W oods
Bangor (Van Bure n)
Roseville
Redford U nion
Harrison
Houghton Lake
Taylor
Van Dyke
Pontiac
Dowagiac Union
Lansing
Mancelona
Wyoming
Mes ick
Battle Cre ek
Fennville
Adams Township
Akron-Fairgrove
Oscoda
Kalamazoo
Cas eville
Kaleva Norman Dickson
Evart
Orchard View
Cas sopolis
Carman-Ainsworth
Fores t Area
White Pigeon
Detroit Community
Madis on
We stwood
Holton
Atlanta
Oak Park
White Cloud
Jackson
Tekonsha
Farwell
Dearborn
Yps ilanti
Fairvie w
Dearborn He ights
Au Gres -Sims
Marion
Bentley
Cre stwood
Hart
Vassar
Comstock
Ewen -Trout Creek
Mio-AuSable
Ce ntral Line
Atherton
Kingston
Morle y Stanwood
Holland City
Decatur
Gwinn
Ke ntwood
Bellevue
Roscommon
Litchfield
Wayne-W estland
Brandywine
Montabella
Cheboygan
Beave rton
Manton
Oakridge
Engadine
Belding
Carney-N adeau
Lake City
South Haven
Sturgis
We st Branch-Rose City
Hes peria
Mayville
Rudyard
Vande rcook Lake
Baraga
Brown City
Vestaburg
We st Iron County
Ke ars ley
Ne wago
Chippewa Hills
Hillsdale
Camden-Frontier
Onaway
Owosso
Montrose
Bronson
Ce ntral Montcalm
Ferndale
Calume t Laurium Kewe enaw
Marlette
Springport
Peck
Gladwin
East Jackson
South Red ford
Hillman
Madis on (Le newee)
East Jordan
Ellsworth
Lawre nce
Pells ton
Niles
Marcellus
Southfield
Caro
Berrie n Springs
Crawford AuSable
Benzie County
Coloma
Cars on City-Crystal
South Lake
Big Bay de Noc
Cars onville-Port Sanilac
North Huron
Reading
Warren
Northport
Alanson
Shelby
Ironwood
Lakeview (Montcalm)
Adrian
North Adams-Jerome
Pittsford
St. Louis
Morrice
Parchment
Millington
Manis tique
Mason County Central
More nci
Reed City
Watervliet
Lawton
Colon
Cas s City
Deckerville
Delton Kellogg
Homer
Union City
Merrill
Pinconning
Sandusky
Inland Lakes
Constantine
Alcona
Claren ce ville
Grant
Coldwater
Pine River
Thre e Rivers
Big Rapids
Allegan
Wyandotte
Ionia
Montague
Ontonagon
Waverly
Posen
Kingsley
River Valley
Alma
LakeVille
Bark Rive r - Harris
Monroe
We st Ottawa
Port Hu ron
Inlay City
Lake Linden-Hubbell
Cadillac
Comstock Park
Gales burg-Augusta
Hu dson
Tri County
Brimley
Rogers City
Bear Lake
Warren Woods
Fores t P ark
Ke nt City
L'Anse
Standis h-Sterling
Manis te e
Bre cken ridge
Coleman
Buckley
Stephenson
Tahquamenon
St. Ignace
Waterford
Kalkaska
Carrollton
North Cen tral
Tawas
Gree nville
St. Charles
Clio
Athen s
Munising
We bbe rville
Bay City
Johannes burg-Lewis ton
Ishpeming
Buchanan
Concord
Harbor Beach
Croswell-Lexington
Unionville-Se bewaing
Suttons Bay
Men ominee
Les Cheneaux
Chesaning Union
Jone sville
Ke nowa Hills
Durand
Maple Valley
Pickford
Ce ntral Lake
McBain
Michigan Center
Van Buren
Elkton-Pigeon
Ludington
Rapid River
Bangor Township
Fremont
Hastings
Corunna
Lapeer
Alpen a
Garden City
Lincoln Consolidated
Fruitport
Lamphere
Gobles
Addison
Ubly
Airport
Capac
Boyne Falls
Ne w H ave n
Gaylord
Napoleon
Wakefield-Marenis co
Raven na
Frankfort-Elbe rta
Ce dar Springs
Birch Run
Shep herd
Clare
Quincy
Ce ntreville
Reese
Pen twate r
North Branch
North Dickins on
Onekama
Swartz Creek
Fulton
Wayland Union
Bessse mer
Charlotte
Reeths-Puffer
Sand Creek
Mid-Pen insula
Holly Area
Men don
Fraser
Escanaba
Martin
Whitehall
Northwest
Superior Cen tral
Leslie
Meridian
Perry
Sault Ste M arie
Saranac
Pen nfield
Sparta
Iron Mountain
Algonac
Bad Axe
Paw Paw
We stern
Eaton Rapids
Bre itung Township
Potterville
Bullock Creek
Traverse City
Chasse ll
Olivet
Climax-Scotts
Mason Consolidated (Monroe)
Northview
Ovid-Elsie
Norway-Vulcan
Bellaire
Saginaw Township
Hancock
Whitmore Lake
Jefferson (M onroe)
Columbia
Boyne City
Ithaca
Ne w Buffalo
Lakewood
Memphis
Mount Pleas ant
Stockbridge
Mona Shores
Lakes hore (Macomb)
Holt
Ots ego
Leland
Flat Rock
Bridgman
Charlevoix
Davison
Gladstone
Lakeview (Macomb)
Yale
Flushing
Britton Deerfie ld
Petoskey
Byron Area
Beal City
Dryden
Plainwe ll
Marshall
Hanover-H orton
Edwardsburg
Swan Valley
Harper Creek
Coopersville
Hopkins
Riverview
Claws on
Fowlerville
Elk Rapids
Grand Haven
Allen Park
Portland
Hemlock
Dansville
Blis sfie ld
L'Anse Creu se
Onsted
East Lansing
NICE Community
Avondale
Ess exville-Hampton
Vicksburg
Grandville
Bath
East China
Glen Lake
Ne gaunee
Thornapple Kellogg
Saugatuck
Houghton-P ortage
Allendale
Milan
Lowell
Howell
Utica
Richmond
Grand Blanc
Hu ron
Mason (Ingham)
Lakes hore (Berrie n)
Tecumseh
North Muskegon
Byron Ce nter
St. Johns
Marquette
Hu ron Valley
Gibralter
Summerfield
We st Bloomfield
Dundee
Marysville
Midland
Grass Lake
Harbor Springs
Fenton
Hamilton
Livonia
Jenison
Clinton
Romeo
Grand Led ge
Chippewa Valley
Walled Lake
Tren ton
Anchor Bay
Berkle y
Hasle tt
Portage
Zeeland
Ne w Lothrop
Almont
St. Joseph
Linden
Ann Arbor
Laingsburg
Manche ster
Farmington
Royal Oak
Bedford
Lake Fen ton
Schoolcraft
Gull Lake
Lake Orion
Clarkston
Armanda
Cale donia
Black River
Goodrich
Oxford
Pinckney
Ida
Spring Lake
South Lyon
Okemos
Freeland
Williamston
Pewamo-We stphalia
Plymouth-Canton
Hu dsonville
Frankenmuth
Fowler
Mattawan
Hartland
Grosse Pointe
DeW itt
Rochester
Troy
Rockford
Brighton
Chelsea
Saline
Fores t Hills
Bloomfie ld Hills
Dexter
Grosse Ile
Novi
Birmingham
Northville
East Grand Rapids
Composite Proficiency
Michigan Districts Composite 2015 M-Step Proficiency
(All Grades and Subjects Tested)
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
Hale, 33.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
Hale 2015 M-Step Proficiency Percentile
45%
40%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
10%
5%
0%
Projected by Economic Disadvataged Rate
Actual
Scatter-plotting
• A scatter plot is a type of mathematical diagram using Cartesian coordinates to display
values for typically two variables for a set of data
• A scatter plot can suggest various kinds of correlations between variables with a
certain confidence interval.
• Correlations may be positive (rising), negative (falling), or null (uncorrelated).
• If the pattern of dots slopes from lower left to upper right, it indicates a
positive correlation between the variables being studied.
• If the pattern of dots slopes from upper left to lower right, it indicates a negative
correlation.
• A line of best fit (alternatively called 'trendline') can be drawn in order to study the
relationship between the variables.
• An equation for the correlation between the variables can be determined by established
best-fit procedures. For a linear correlation, the best-fit procedure is known as linear
regression and is guaranteed to generate a correct solution in a finite time.
Michigan Public School Districts , 2015 M-Step Test
Average Proficiency and Economically Disadvataged Rates
80.0%
70.0%
Composite Proficiency Rate
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Economically Disadvantaged Rate
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Michigan Public School Districts , 2015 M-Step Test
Average Proficiency and Economically Disadvataged Rates
80.0%
70.0%
Composite Proficiency Rate
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
y = -0.5083x + 0.6149
R² = 0.6957
0.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Economically Disadvantaged Rate
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Michigan Public School Districts , 2015 M-Step Test
Average Proficiency and Economically Disadvataged Rates
80.0%
70.0%
Composite Proficiency Rate
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
y = 1.8036x4 - 4.3239x3 + 3.6258x2 - 1.7289x + 0.7458
R² = 0.703
0.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Economically Disadvantaged Rate
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Michigan Public School Districts , 2015 M-Step Test
Average Proficiency and Economically Disadvataged Rates
80.0%
70.0%
Composite Proficiency Rate
60.0%
50.0%
Hale
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Economically Disadvantaged Rate
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Out-Performance & Under-Performance
• The proficiency and economic disadvantage scatter-plot can be used
to indicate out-performance and under-performance relative to what
would be projected given the economic disadvantaged rate.
• Above the trend-line indicates out-performance
• Below the trend-line indicates under-performance
• Space between trend-line indicates degree of out-performance or
underperformance.
Michigan Public School Districts , 2015 M-Step Test
Average Proficiency and Economically Disadvataged Rates
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
Composite Proficiency Rate
Hale
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Economically Disadvantaged Rate
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
All Grades, All Subjects, Composite Proficiency Rate
as a Percentage of State Average Composite Proficiency Rate
100%
90%
86%
80%
80%
75%
88%
81%
75%
74%
70%
67%
60%
Yellow Line Represents Proficiency Rate Projected By 2014 District Economic Disadvantaged Rate
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015 M-Step Composite Proficiency and Economic Disadvantaged Rates
Composite Proficiency Rate Includes All District Grades and Subjects Tested
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
Proficiency
50.0%
Tawas
Hale
Oscoda
40.0%
Whittemore-Prescott
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Economically Disadvantaged (Free and Reduced Lunch)
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Top 5% Outperforming Michigan Districts in 2015
2015 M-Step Composite Proficiency Rate Includes: All Tested Grades and Subjects
80.0%
Okemos
Pentwater
Saugatuck
Byron Center
Houghton-Portage
70.0%
Haslett
East Lansing
Edwardsburg
60.0%
Crawford AuSable
Ludington
Calumet Laurium Keweenaw
Les Cheneaux
Harbor Beach
West Ottawa
Madison (Lenewee)
Brown City
Kingsley
Petoskey
Roscommon
Dearborn
Proficiency
50.0%
Adams Township
Mason County Eastern
40.0%
Ashley
Hale
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Economically Disadvantaged (Free and Reduced Lunch)
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Hale 2015 M-Step Summary of Data
• Absolute Standing:
• 40th percentile (39% below Hale, 59% above Hale)
• Performance in Context:
• 95th percentile (94% below Hale, 4% above Hale) when district economic
disadvantaged rate is factored in
• District Trend Analysis:
• Continued to close the achievement gap slightly in 2015, but rate of increase
slowed markedly from the previous cycle.
• District Composite Proficiency: 88% of statewide rate
• Much better than the 59% of statewide projected by economic disadvantage
• Best relative (to economic disadvantage) proficiency in the last decade
Composite 2015 M-Step Proficiency
40.0%
37.3%
35.0%
32.9%
30.0%
25.0%
22.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Statewide
Hale Actual
Hale Projected by Economic Disadvantaged Rate
2015 M-Step Composite Proficiency Expressed as a Percentage of the Statewide Rate
100%
90%
88%
80%
70%
59%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Hale Actual
Hale Projected by Economic Disadvantaged Rate
Hale 2015 M-Step Summary Conclusions
• Contextual analysis that factors in economic disadvantage is the
fairest and best way to view district and individual educator
performance.
• In 2015 Hale student proficiency far out-performed what would be
projected given the relatively high economically disadvantaged rate.
• The staff responsible for producing such outperformance are to be
congratulated for exceptionally outstanding achievement.
Setting A Realistic Student Achievement Goal
• Top 10% when economic disadvantage is factored in?
• Top 50 districts out of about 500 in Michigan
• Surpassed in 2015
• Top 5% when economic disadvantage is factored in?
• Top 25 districts out of out of about 500 in Michigan?
• Achieved in 2015
• Top 1% when economic disadvantage is factored in?
• Top 5 districts out of about 500 in Michigan?
• Top 0.5% when economic disadvantage is factored in?
• Top two or three districts out of about 500 in Michigan?
Michigan Public School Districts , 2015 M-Step Test
Average Proficiency and Economically Disadvataged Rates
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
Composite Proficiency Rate
Hale in 2018?
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Economically Disadvantaged Rate
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Evaluation and Student Achievement
• Evaluation standards need to be aligned with goals
District Effectiveness Rating:
Highly Effective (11 on a 12 point Scale)
80.0%
70.0%
Composite Proficiency Rate
60.0%
50.0%
Hale
40.0%
30.0%
Highly Effective (12)
Highly Effective (11)
Highly Effective (10)
Effective (9)
Effective (8)
Effective (7)
Minimally Effective (6)
Minimally Effective (5)
Minimally Effective (4)
Ineffective (3)
Ineffective (2)
Ineffective (1)
20.0%
10.0%
y = 1.8036x4 - 4.3239x3 + 3.6258x2 - 1.7289x + 0.7458
R² = 0.703
0.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Economically Disadvantaged Rate
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%