JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 115, D17301, doi:10.1029/2009JD013207, 2010 Implementation of road and soil dust emission parameterizations in the aerosol model CAMx: Applications over the greater Athens urban area affected by natural sources E. Athanasopoulou,1 M. Tombrou,1 A. G. Russell,2 A. Karanasiou,3 K. Eleftheriadis,3 and A. Dandou1 Received 16 September 2009; revised 12 February 2010; accepted 27 April 2010; published 1 September 2010. [1] A detailed dust emission parameterization was developed for aerosol production by human and natural activity. The road dust scheme includes tire wear, break wear, road abrasion and vehicle‐induced re‐suspension. The natural dust scheme includes wind (Aeolian) erosion from soil surfaces and land disturbances, and considers the effects of soil and atmospheric parameters on dust productivity. Emission rates are chemically and size‐ resolved and are incorporated in the CAMx aerosol model coupled with the ISORROPIA II inorganic module. Emissions and concentrations are predicted for five simulation periods, using a domain covering Greece with a fine mesh over the greater Athens area. Re‐suspended mass is the main dust component, calculated 4–5 times higher than exhaust emissions. Soil dust emissions are much greater than road dust during high winds but are of less importance inside the city with maximums located at the periphery of the urban core. Comparison with observations suggests that the road dust component seems adequately estimated in traffic‐affected areas and accounts for 15–40% of the total PM10. Calcium, regarded as a soil dust tracer, is calculated to be 2–4 mg m−3 in areas with high Aeolian emission rates, similar to measured values. Sodium and magnesium predictions show their marine origin, and reasonably replicate the observed mass and size distribution during well‐established onshore flows. Nitrates are predicted as measured during lower winds, but are underestimated when stronger winds prevail from the west. This is caused by an overestimated industrial influence of Athens. As a result, ammonia is bound to the excess of sulfate, rather than reacting with nitric acid. Secondary species are influenced slightly by heterogeneous chemistry on dust particles. Citation: Athanasopoulou, E., M. Tombrou, A. G. Russell, A. Karanasiou, K. Eleftheriadis, and A. Dandou (2010), Implementation of road and soil dust emission parameterizations in the aerosol model CAMx: Applications over the greater Athens urban area affected by natural sources, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D17301, doi:10.1029/2009JD013207. 1. Introduction [2] Dust is primary aerosol arising from mechanical processes and may be formed either anthropogenically or naturally. Anthropogenic sources include vehicle movement (on‐ and off‐road, including construction), mining and farming. Vehicle movement initiates both aerosol production and re‐suspension mechanisms. Road dust production is a result of the generation of shear forces by the relative movement of the vehicles’ tires and the road surface, and also by the brakes, during the deceleration process [European Environment Agency (EEA), 2007]. A fraction of the total 1 Department of Applied Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece. 2 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA. 3 Institute of Nuclear Technology and Radiation Protection, National Center of Scientific Research “Demokritos,” Athens, Greece. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union. 0148‐0227/10/2009JD013207 atmospheric aerosol mass produced by all processes is deposited onto land, particularly road surfaces, where it can be re‐emitted. Natural dust occurs when wind acts on land surfaces, either producing or re‐suspending particles. Aeolian erosion is the process of wind‐forced movement of soil particles, which gives birth to soil “bursts” that mobilize mineral aerosol [Shao, 2001; Kondratyev et al., 2005]. Although particle flux is naturally driven, it can be enhanced by anthropogenic disturbances in the natural land surface (e.g., earthwork sites, land use changes). [3] Anthropogenic dust leads to large quantities of carbon and several metals (copper, zinc, iron, magnesium, calcium etc.) in ambient aerosol and contributes not only to the coarse but also to the fine sizes of aerosol [EEA, 2007; Thorpe and Harrison, 2008]. Natural dust is mainly coarse and dominated by mineral species (silicon, calcium, potassium, magnesium etc.) which may be reactive sites for heterogeneous reactions of sulphur (SO2, H2SO4) and nitrogen‐containing species (e.g., HNO3), leading to secondary aerosol formation (CaSO4, Ca(NO3)2 etc.) in the D17301 1 of 21 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS atmosphere [Seinfeld and Pandis, 2006; Fountoukis and Nenes, 2007]. Matsuki et al. [2004] found that calcite (CaCO3) absorbs the largest amount of sulphur. Krueger et al. [2004] also found high yields of nitrate formation on CaCO3 and dolomite (MgCa(CO3)2). Mineral dust particles can account from 55 to 70% for the formation of coarse mode sulfate and for more than 90% of coarse mode nitrate in non‐marine influenced sites [Hien et al., 2005]. [4] There are compelling reasons to include dust in aerosol simulations, such as their aforementioned reactivity, plus radiation, photochemistry and health effects [Myhre et al., 2003; Tanré et al., 2003; Hien et al., 2005; Hodzic et al., 2006; Fountoukis and Nenes, 2007; L. Perez et al., 2008]. There is a potential health burden of dust particles, mostly due to heavy metals in road dust [Schwarze et al., 2007; Jalava et al., 2008; Ostro et al., 2009]. The paucity of dust emission data, e.g., in inventories, leads to a lack of knowledge about its air quality burden, effective controls and impact on modeling of aerosol chemistry. [5] Several authors have proposed parameterizations for dust particle fluxes. A widely used vehicle‐induced dust emission factor depends on vehicle weight and road surface silt loading [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1995, 2003]. A simpler dust emission factor calculation depends on vehicle weight and speed [Gillies et al., 2005], which is combined with the number of vehicles and kilometers traveled [Allwine et al., 2006]. A detailed, analytical parameterization for tire wear, brake wear and road abrasion dust calculates the mass fluxes of each aerosol size fraction and chemical species as a function of vehicle class, weight, speed and load, number of axles (in the case of trucks), number of vehicles and kilometers traveled [EEA, 2007]. Aerosol re‐suspension by vehicle movement can be indirectly estimated from measurements [Lohmeyer et al., 2002; Gidhagen et al., 2004; Omstedt et al., 2005; Ketzel et al., 2007; Thorpe et al., 2007; Patra et al., 2008]. This procedure is controlled by all the aforementioned factors plus the surface and atmospheric humidity, as well as the number of hours since last rainfall. [6] Aeolian erosion dust flux is primarily a function of friction velocity [White, 1979; Westphal et al., 1987; Shao et al., 1993; Gillette and Passi, 1988; Alfaro et al., 1998; Ginoux et al., 2001; Chin et al., 2002, 2004]. The process is controlled by atmospheric conditions (precipitation, temperature and pressure), soil characteristics (texture, type and water content) and land‐surface properties (aerodynamic roughness length and vegetation cover). Instead of using approximated constant values, physically based parameterizations of these parameters can be included in the wind‐driven dust flux calculations [Bagnold, 1941; Tegen and Fung, 1994; Marticorena and Bergametti, 1995; Fécan et al., 1999; Liu and Westphal, 2001; Park and In, 2003; Alfaro et al., 2004; Shao et al., 1993]. The additional dust flux from disturbed land‐use practice is currently partly parameterized either using information on heavy‐ vehicle movement around quarries [Moosmüller et al., 1998; Abu‐Allaban et al., 2006] or by using average construction expenses [Watson and Chow, 2000]. [7] A number of attempts has been made to incorporate dust source functions in atmospheric models. Some studies focus on simulations of the production of natural dust [Alfaro and Gomes, 2001; Alfaro et al., 2004; Mansell et al., D17301 2004], particularly, desert dust mobilization and its impacts on a global [Zender et al., 2003; Ginoux et al., 2004; Bauer et al., 2004; Chin et al., 2007; Cheng et al., 2007; Lee et al., 2009] or on regional scale [Nickovic et al., 2001; Alpert et al., 2004; Vautard et al., 2005; Kallos et al., 2006; N. Pérez et al., 2008; Shaw et al., 2008]. High resolution regional simulations have found improvements in total mass levels, but without investigating the impact of local dust on atmospheric chemistry [Choi and Fernando, 2008]. The chemical atmospheric impact of natural dust is investigated by a few regional, though coarse resolution, applications that focus on nitrate species [Hodzic et al., 2006; Astitha and Kallos, 2008]. Both studies introduce an uptake coefficient of nitric acid on dust particles, which leads to a reduction of model biases. [8] The greater Athens area is a challenging region for dust modeling. While the area is dominated by human activities, it is occasionally subjected to Saharan dust outbreaks and suffers from low precipitation rates, leading to increased dust accumulation and wind erosion [Kallos et al., 2006, 2007; Rodríguez et al., 2004]. Indeed, Saharan, road and soil dust are found as important aerosol contributors [Scheff and Valiozis, 1990; Eleftheriadis et al., 1998; Siskos et al., 2001; Dall’Osto and Harrison, 2006; Mitsakou et al., 2008; Karanasiou et al., 2009]. Recent studies indicate the dust contribution to PM10 measurements in Athens is 7– 20% Saharan [Mitsakou et al., 2008], 25% road and 13% soil dust [Karanasiou et al., 2009], normalized over the year. Previous aerosol simulations indicated that dust incorporation could improve evaluation results of aerosol over the area [Athanasopoulou et al., 2005, 2008]. [9] The aim of this study is to develop an approach to quantify dust emissions by source and assess atmospheric pollution, including its impact on urban chemical environments affected by both natural and anthropogenic pollution sources. To this end, parameterizations of vehicles’ tire wear, brake wear and road abrasion, vehicle‐induced re‐ suspension and Aeolian erosion of soil, earthwork sites and quarries are developed and described. These algorithms are implemented in a research version of the CAMx aerosol model [ENVIRON, 2003] that incorporates analytical equations for the equilibrium of the K+–Ca2+–Mg2+–NH+4 – − − Na+–SO2− 4 –NO3 –Cl –H2O aerosol system. The impact of dust aerosol on atmospheric chemical constituents over Athens is examined by means of simulations. The results of the modeling study are compared to simultaneous analytical aerosol measurements. 2. Measurements 2.1. Mass Size Distributions and Selected Water Soluble Ions [10] Data from size distribution measurements of aerosol mass and concentrations determined for water soluble inorganic species [Eleftheriadis et al., 2006a] were utilized in this study. Samples were obtained by means of an 11 stage Berner cascade impactor at the “Demokritos” urban background site (DEM). Measurements took place during May 25 and 26, 2005 and April 10–13, 2006 and data refer to average 24‐h values from 10:00a.m. until 09:00a.m. next day (LST). Aerosol was classified in 10 fractions with 50% cut off sizes given at 0.026, 0.062, 0.110, 0.173, 0.262, 2 of 21 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS D17301 Figure 1. Application domain and monitoring sites: (a) the parent domain covers Greece, and (b) the nested domain (shown as an embedded rectangle in Figure 1a) covers the Attica peninsula. Outside ticks at 10 km intervals. Topography contours at 300 m intervals. 0.46, 0.89, 1.77, 3.4, and 6.8 mm. Samples were collected on tedlar foils and were equilibrated in a relative humidity (RH) and temperature (T) controlled weighing room for at least 24 h before weighing. Weighing of the foils before and after sampling was conducted on a Sartorius BP211D balance (10−5 gr resolution). 2.2. PM10 and PM2.5 Mass Concentration [11] Additional data include hourly and daily concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 measured by b‐gauge attenuation monitors operating for the National Air Pollution Monitoring Network. Aerosol PM concentrations are provided for the Aristotelous, Marousi, Piraeus and Goudi urban traffic sites (ARI, MAR, PIR, GOU), the Agia Paraskeui, Zografou and Thrakomakedones urban background sites (AGP, ZOG, THR), the Lykovrisi suburban site (LYK), the Colegio and Iraklio highway sites (COL, IRA) and the Heraklion, Patra and Volos Greek periphery sites (HER, PAT, VOL) (map as in Figure 1). It has to be noted that b‐gauge instruments often introduce systematic bias due to liquid water, gas to particle disequilibrium during sampling and trace gas adsorption on filter media. The bias is RH and T dependent, or in other words, is site and season specific [Chang and Tsai, 2003; Takahashi et al., 2008]. As a result, an uncertainty in the range of 30% is assumed reasonable for the measurements reported here. On the other hand, size distribution measurements at DEM, yield gravimetric PM10 concentrations, which in general suffer from minor artifact formation and their uncertainly is estimated in the range of 15%. 2.3. Atmospheric Conditions and Dates for Comparison With Model Results [12] The comparison for PM10 at the sites described above can show whether aerosol modeling can reproduce the general aerosol regime over Attica (section 5.2). Hourly data for 2005 are processed for developing the approach to calculate aerosol re‐suspension (section 4.2). Hourly data for 2006 are used for evaluation of the simulations (section 5.2). Size distributions (for 2006) give detailed information for the particulate mass (section 4). The ratio PM2.5/PM10 (DEM, AGP, LYK, PIR) can be an indicator of anthropogenic to total aerosol loading (section 5.2). [13] The dates selected for numerical simulations include May 25 and 26, 2005, April 10–13, 2006 (covering the above measurements), April 25 and 26 and May 17 and 18, 2007. Meteorological information for the simulated days is taken from the data set of the National Observatory of Athens and from “Demokritos” (Table 3). [14] Detailed study of the size distribution and chemical composition of aerosol is confined to the days where such information is available. Caution should be placed when examining the days of 2005, as rain poses another modeling uncertainty and minimizes dust production and effects. The Saharan dust intrusion during the 12th of April, 2006 (section 3.2) is not captured in the boundary conditions, thus modeling underestimations are expected for that period. 3. Model Details 3.1. Air Quality Model [15] PMCAMx is the research version of the publicly available 3‐D, Eulerian chemical transport model CAMx [ENVIRON, 2003]. The CMU scheme designed to estimate size resolved and speciated aerosol concentrations [ENVIRON, 2004], involves ten discrete and internally mixed size sections (cut‐off diameters: 0.04, 0.08, 0.1, 0.3, 0.6, 1.2, 2.5, 5, 10, 20, 40 mm), each consisting of sixteen chemical aerosol components (primary: organic and elemental carbon, chloride, sodium, sulfate, calcium, magnesium, potassium 3 of 21 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS ions and the rest crustal material; secondary: four organics, water, ammonium, nitrate and sulfate ions). The aerosol‐ related dynamical processes considered in PMCAMx include primary emissions, new particle formation by nucleation, condensation, evaporation, wet and dry deposition and chemistry. Coagulation has a low impact for aerosol mass and is currently ignored. [16] The model used in this study (version 4.02) uses the Carbon Bond gas‐phase chemical mechanism (CB) IV [Gery et al., 1989], the RADM algorithm for cloud chemistry [Chang et al., 1987], the SOAP scheme for the organic species partitioning [Strader et al., 1998] and ISORROPIA II for the thermodynamic equilibrium of inorganic aerosol [Fountoukis and Nenes, 2007]. The system treated by ISORROPIA II includes sodium (Na+), ammonium (NH+4 ), − 2+ chloride (Cl−), sulfate (SO2− 4 ), nitrate (NO3 ), calcium (Ca ), 2+ + magnesium (Mg ), potassium (K ) and water (H2O), which are partitioned between gas, and condensed (liquid and solid) phases. Sulfate, sodium and crustal species completely reside in the aerosol phase, and their relative abundance determines the potential aerosol regime. For the rest aerosol species, mass transfer between gas and condensed phases is calculated using the hybrid approach [Capaldo et al., 2000], which assumes instantaneous equilibrium between gases and fine aerosols (equilibrium approach) and solves the mass transfer rate equations for the coarse mass (dynamic approach). The threshold diameter between the two approaches is set at 2.5 mm instead of 1 mm [Capaldo et al., 2000; Koo et al., 2003; Gaydos et al., 2003]. The computational burden imposed by the dynamic treatment of crustal species imposes the restricted use of the dynamic approach. A sensitivity test by applying the lower cut‐off (1 mm) resulted in small changes in average predictions [Athanasopoulou et al., 2008]. [17] Meteorological fields used in PMCAMx are provided by the fifth generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model, MM5 [Grell et al., 1994], processed using “mm5camx‐v4.2” (http://www.camx.com/down/support.php). It should be noticed that the diffusion coefficients are not calculated by “mm5camx‐v4.2” off‐line (by considering the calculated temperature, wind speed, friction velocity etc) but they are provided directly by the MM5 model. Furthermore, “mm5camx‐v4.2” was extended to treat frictional velocity, monthly vegetation fraction, fractional land use / vegetation type, gravimetric soil moisture and soil texture type, so as to provide dust emission fields. Land use fractions for the Athens urban core are replaced by information from a recent high resolution (30 × 10−3 km) satellite image [Dandou et al., 2005]. 3.2. Modeling Domain, Initial and Boundary Conditions [18] The simulation area covers the greater Greece area (parent domain) using a spatial resolution of 6 km, while a finer resolution of 2 km is used in the nested domain centered on the Attica peninsula (Figure 1). The areas of the parent and the nested domain are 777924 km2 (147 × 147 cells) and 21600 km2 (75 × 72 cells), respectively. Vertically, there are 14 layers extending to 4.5 km, with the first layer being approximately 30 × 10−3 km thick. The specific model top is sufficient for studying of local dust emissions. Inclusion of long range transport of dust would demand a D17301 higher model top (i.e., 7–8 km), in order to capture the Saharan typical boundary layer heights. [19] The MM5 numerical simulations also use the above mentioned domains, which are nested into the extended European area (7193124 km2) using a spatial resolution of 18 km. All domains have their top layer at about 13 km agl. The meteorological conditions assumed to initialize simulations are provided by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) analysis fields (0.5 deg × 0.5 deg) and sea‐surface temperature (SST) data (1 deg × 1 deg). [20] Initial and boundary conditions for pollutant concentrations during the days examined are assumed to be spatially and temporally invariant for the parent domain. The concentrations for the main gaseous pollutants are typical values for the area during warm periods, i.e., 50 ppb CO, 1 ppb NOx, 1 ppb SO2 and 40 ppb O3. For the rest of the gaseous species, lower bound concentrations are automatically set by the model (10−6 ppb). Simulations discussed above cover the five 2‐day episodes with 3‐day spin‐ up periods to dampen the effect of initial conditions. [21] Almost all simulated periods are not associated with African dust transport in the Mediterranean atmosphere, and this was confirmed by applications of the trajectory model HYSPLIT (http://www.ready.noaa.gov/ready/open/hysplit4. html) and by OMI Aerosol Index (AI) satellite imagery (http://toms.gsfc.nasa.gov/eptoms/ep_v8.html). Thus, the default aerosol boundary concentrations are used for all size bins in this study (10−9 mg m−3). This is important when evaluating coarse aerosol predictions for the period of April 12 and 13, 2006, which is affected by Saharan dust. 4. Emissions [22] Conventional anthropogenic emission data (both gas and condensable phases), as well as the sea‐salt aerosol emission parameterization are described in a preceding study [Athanasopoulou et al., 2008]. Advances in the existing emission database developed here, involve recent changes in the Athens road network, improvements in the ammonia emission rates, changes in the chemical profiles and size distribution of aerosol emissions and the incorporation of dust emission rates described in sections 4.1–4.3. [23] Hourly emission rates by vehicle exhaust for the greater Attica area, provided initially by the Ministry of Environment for 2002, have been refined to account for the new (2004) highway inside the Athens basin. In particular, the existing exhaust emissions have been redistributed onto the new road network, including emissions associated with toll stations (38 sites), long tunnels (1) and junctions (25 sites) of the new highway road (Figure 7a). [24] Large discrepancies between ammonia (NH3) predictions and observations were found for a summer case [Athanasopoulou et al., 2008], explained by the fact that NH3 emissions from agricultural activities were provided only for the winter period. Sensitivity tests showed that the winter NH3 emission rates should be multiplied by a factor of 5 in order to match the NH3 observations during the warm period. [25] The chemical speciation and size distribution of aerosol emissions by vehicle exhaust [Athanasopoulou 4 of 21 D17301 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS Table 1. Chemical Source Profiles of Aerosol Emissionsa PM40 Organic carbon Elemental carbon Sulfates Nitrates Chloride Sodium Calcium Potassium Magnesium Other mass Re‐suspension Road Abrasion Vehicle Exhaust Tire Wear Brake Wear Soil Dust PM2 PM2–10 PM2 PM2–10 60 26.5 6.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.2 67.5 28.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0 2.5 16.2 4 5.1 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.1 6.8 65 0 0 10 0 0 2.2 43.9 4.5 3.1 36.3 60 28.7 5.3 0 0 0.03 3.4 0 0.3 2.3 60 9 13.6 0 0 1.7 0.3 0.7 0.4 14.3 60 18 10 0 0 0.06 6.7 0 0.6 4 60 0 17 0 0 3.3 6.4 1 0.7 11 a Mass fractions (%) for vehicle exhaust, soil dust, re‐suspension and road abrasion are based on Karanasiou et al. [2009]. The rest fractions are taken from EEA [2007]. et al., 2008], is modified using recently available information. The inorganic chemical source profile for vehicle exhaust is taken from Karanasiou et al. [2009] (Table 1). The size distribution of the three mass fractions (PM1, PM2.5 and PM2.5–10) to ten size bins (Figure 2) is reached by using measurements performed in this study. This led to emissions with a primary accumulation mode peak around 0.5 mm. The dust emission sectors described in the following paragraphs are also subjected to this size information. 4.1. Tire Wear, Brake Wear, and Road Abrasion [26] In order to calculate aerosol emissions from tire wear, brake wear and road abrasion processes, the detailed method from the EMEP/CORINAIR emission inventory is applied [EEA, 2007] to the Attica road network, using hourly, gridded, exhaust emission rates. Data for the number of vehicles in each defined class (two‐wheelers, passenger cars, light duty trucks and heavy vehicles) within the Attica network and the mileage driven by each vehicle in each Figure 2. Size source profiles of aerosol emissions. Dots indicate the mean diameter of the each size section treated by PMCAMx. The mass fractions (%) for vehicle exhaust and re‐suspension are based on Karanasiou et al. [2009]. Wear processes and road abrasion fractions are taken from EEA [2007]. Soil dust sizes depend on the local soil classes provided by the MM5 database. 5 of 21 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS D17301 Figure 3. PM10 versus NOx concentrations at the (a) Athens city center (ARI) and (b) traffic urban area (MAR) during 2005. The gray points are treated as data outliers: less than 15% and greater than 85% in Figure 3a and less than 25% and greater than 75% of the data in Figure 3b. Least square equation and correlation coefficient values (r2) of the central data (black points) are also displayed. class are taken from the recent inventory provided by Hellenic Ministry of Environment [2006]. [27] Dust production (per km basis) by the wear of vehicle tires depends on vehicle class and speed, while in the case of heavy vehicles, the load and the number of axles, also affect dust emissions. Brake wear processes are affected by all the factors above, except the number of axles of heavy‐duty vehicles. Road abrasion is only affected by the class of the vehicle. [28] Typical size profiles (5 and 3 size classes for wear and road abrasion particles, respectively) and chemical speciation of dust production processes (Table 1 and Figure 2) are based on EEA [2007], except for the chemical profiles of road abrasion emissions that are based on the road dust source profiles for fine and coarse fractions, provided by Karanasiou et al. [2009]. 4.2. Vehicle‐Induced Re‐suspension [29] Estimation of aerosol re‐suspension based on emission factors is highly uncertain as it depends on deposited material from a wide range of sources and on precipitation. An alternative approach is to use the mass closure method [Ketzel et al., 2007; Patra et al., 2008; Thorpe et al., 2007]. Aerosol re‐suspension by vehicle movement is calculated as the residual between the total aerosol mass from vehicle operation and the exhaust, tire wear, brake wear and road abrasion emissions. [30] For the current study, aerosol re‐suspension rates by vehicle movement are estimated using a combination of aerosol vehicle emissions and measured aerosol ratios to NOx [Omstedt et al., 2005]. A number of studies characterizing PM10 measurements in urban areas consider NOx concentrations as a satisfactory indicator of vehicle exhaust emissions when sampling is co‐located [Scheff and Valiozis, 1990; Grivas et al., 2004]. Therefore, regression analysis between PM10 and NOx concentrations has been applied as a method for the quantification of the total PM10 mass related to vehicle movement [Fuller et al., 2002; Harrison et al., 2003; Thorpe et al., 2007]. In the present study, NOx is used as a tracer for vehicle emissions using two sampling sites of the National Air Pollution Monitoring Network. One is located along a busy inner‐city roadway (Aristotelous Str.: ARI), and the other is in the suburban area Marousi (MAR), located 300m from the heavily used Kifissias avenue. Neither site is near major industrial sources [Grivas et al., 2004]. [31] Data analysis involves measurements of PM10 and NOx during 2005 (Figure 3). This period was chosen not only due to the available road transport data but also because it is the only year after the new highway road construction for which hourly PM10 measurements are available. Data was treated to exclude background pollution and measurement errors. Windy hours (U > 2 m s−1) are omitted so as to minimize pollutant transport, Saharan dust events (OMI data) and high moisture data (RH > 60%) are removed in order to avoid both particle washout and moisture problems on particle counters. Then, the hours with high traffic loads (07:00–10:00 and 20:00–23:00 LST) are selected, in order to capture periods dominated by high vehicle source strengths. [32] The NOx−PM10 relationship is still somewhat scattered. Thorpe et al. [2007] suggested that points where the PM10 to NOx ratios are larger than 0.1 should be excluded as outliers. In the present study, the interquartile range (IQR), being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles, is applied to identify outliers. The IQR is regarded as a robust statistic and is often preferred to the total data set. In this study, outliers with unreasonably high or low PM10 to NOx ratios may be related to events with additional aerosol sources (other than vehicles) or problematic measurements, respectively. [33] The IQR data for MAR have a satisfactory correlation (r2 = 0.77), but a higher correlation (r2 = 0.87) is obtained for the ARI data set, even for a wider data range (70%). The representative ratios (PM10/NOx) found by this methodology are 0.26 and 0.51, for the ARI and MAR locations, respectively, similar to these calculated by Grivas et al. [2004]. The value of 0.26, being the most representative and conservative is taken as the indicator of the total aerosol related to road transport. Subsequently, the vehicle‐induced re‐suspension emission rate (PM10res, g hr−1 m−2) is estimated as, PM10 res ¼ 0:26 NOx exh PM10 exh PM10 tbr ð1Þ where, NOxexh and PM10exh are the emission rates of nitrogen oxides and aerosol, respectively, by vehicle exhaust 6 of 21 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS Table 2. Fractions b(i, j) of the Soil Texture Classes in the Four Soil Categories in Attica, as Indicated by the MM5 Databasea Soil Texture Class (i) Soil Category (j) 1: Loam 2: Sandy clay loam 3. Clay loam 4: Clay g (i) 1: Clay (PM2) 2: Silt (PM2–50) 3: Sand (PM50–100) 0.20 0.34 0.39 0.45 0.08 0.40 0.10 0.29 0.27 1.00 0.40 0.56 0.32 0.28 0.12 a Values are obtained from the U.S. soil texture triangle [Noorallah, 1999]. The mass fraction of each soil texture class available for uplift (g) is also given [Nickovic et al., 2001]. and PM10tbr is the dust emission rate from tire wear, brake wear and road abrasion processes. [34] Mass and size fractions for road dust and vehicle exhaust [Karanasiou et al., 2009] are averaged for the estimation of speciated and size resolved re‐suspended aerosol mass by vehicles (Table 1 and Figure 2, respectively). The deposited aerosol on the road network (especially at a city center location) comes mainly from road transport, with vehicle exhaust contributing about equally with dust production (tire and brake wear, road abrasion) (as shown previously). This assumption will be assessed in a sensitivity test concerning particle sizes. The alternative size distribution (dotted line in Figure 2) is confined to the coarse section. The latter is considered to be the result of collisions between smaller and larger dust particles as they are set in motion (saltation) before re‐suspension. 4.3. Aeolian Erosion [35] Natural production of soil dust aerosols depends on wind energy and is controlled by soil surface properties and atmospheric characteristics. The parameterization of dust production from Aeolian erosion of the soil surfaces, AE (g cm−2 s−1) is given as a function of friction velocity (u*), based on Shaw et al. [2008]: AE ¼ fa C u* 4 fw u*t 1 u* ð2Þ where a is the vegetation mask, fab is the product of the clay mass fraction of the soil (b) multiplied by its area fraction fa in a grid cell, g is the mass fraction of the soil available for uplift, C (g s3 cm−6) is a coefficient of proportionality, fw is the soil wetness factor and u*t (cm s−1) is a threshold friction velocity below which dust emission does not occur. Values of u* in the current study are from MM5 output for each computational cell on an hourly basis. Values for g are shown in Table 2 [Nickovic et al., 2001], while fa is from the MM5 database. [36] The above equation estimates the total mass of dust generated by the action of wind on the soil surface. The chemical profile for AE (Table 1) is based on the soil source profiles provided by Karanasiou et al. [2009]. Soil dust emissions are largely calcium, as calcium carbonate is a major component of loose soil and dust in Greece [Scheff and Valiozis, 1990]. [37] Applications by Shaw et al. [2008] assumed dry soil ( fw = 1), semi‐desert and desert areas (a = 0.5 or 1, respectively), u*t = 20 cm s−1 and C = 1 × 10−14 g s3 cm−6. D17301 In the present work, the available soil and atmospheric data by MM5 have been incorporated into functional approaches for the parameters needed, replacing the default values. Thus, local soil categorization and vegetation data are used, as well as functional forms of fw, u*t and C. Furthermore, quarries and earthwork sites are treated as explicit natural dust sources. 4.3.1. Soil Characteristics [38] Soil particles distribute among clay, silt and sand texture classes and correspond to dust particles with diameters up to 2, 50 and 100 mm, respectively [Shaw et al., 2008]. The mass fraction of each soil texture class depends on the category of the soil. In the current study, the soil categorization is based on 14 soil categories and their area fraction, obtained by MM5 database. In the Attica region, there are four soil categories, each having a specific mass fraction b of each soil texture class (Table 2) obtained from the U.S. soil texture triangle [Noorallah, 1999]. Thus, equation (2) gives up to 12 AE values for each computational cell, instead of a simple calculation based on average soil characteristics of each cell. [39] A first approximation of AE for Attica is based on the fixed fw, u*t and C aforementioned values. AE ranges between 10−10 to 10−6 g cm−2 s−1 (Figure 4) similar to what was found in previous modeling and experimental studies [Nickovic et al., 2001; Pulugurtha and James, 2006]. The variation in AE for the same friction velocity reaches up to 2 orders of magnitude and depends on the soil characteristics ( fab values) of the dust productive areas in Attica. [40] Local calculations of the dust size distribution in Attica showed that PM2–50 accounts for 80% of the total flux, followed by PM50–100 and PM2 (11 and 9%, respectively). This suggests that silt is the most dust productive soil class, and is due to the high mass fraction available for uplift (g). The sand mass exclusion from aerosol modeling does not significantly underestimate the total Aeolian dust production. 4.3.2. Vegetation [41] Vegetation coverage of Attica is obtained from the monthly MM5 database for each computational cell. The vegetation mask, a, is the inverse of vegetation coverage, ranging from zero (green field) to one (bare soil). For the Attica area, a ranges from 0.72 to 0.87. The current calculation for dust emissions is a conservative dust estimate of fluxes for a typical year because the simulation period is in April, which is the most vegetated month of the year (Figure 4). However, the variation of AE through the year, in respect to vegetation, is small. 4.3.3. Soil Moisture [42] Soil moisture increases the erosion threshold friction velocity (u*t) due to increased cohesion. When the capacity of the soil to absorb water is exceeded, soil dust does not entrain into the atmosphere. This effect is included by using the soil wetness factor ( fw) schemes [Nickovic et al., 2001; Zender et al., 2003; Vautard et al., 2005; Cheng et al., 2007; Choi and Fernando, 2008; Shaw et al., 2008]. This factor depends on the soil category and is empirically determined as a function of the clay soil content [Fécan et al., 1999]. Based on historical soil moisture values less than 16%, Fécan et al. calculated an fw range of 1–2.7. [43] In the present study, volumetric soil moisture data are obtained by MM5 output for each computational cell on an 7 of 21 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS D17301 Figure 4. Total dust flux calculations (AE) as a function of friction velocity u*, from the active dust emission areas of Attica after Shaw et al. [2008] assumptions. The bar plot shows total AE values during the same wind conditions (u* > 1 m s−1), in respect to the yearly variation of vegetation in Attica, as obtained by the MM5 database. hourly basis. In order to be used in the fw calculation, they are converted to gravimetric water content, wg [Zender et al., 2003]. This conversion requires soil density data, which depend on soil category, thus each cell bears up to four wg values. [44] MM5‐calculated wg are much higher than the soil water capacity for all local soil categories (Figure 5). In particular, wg always exceeds 11% and reaches up to 30% over active dust emission regions, resulting in fw values from 1.9 to 2.8, much higher than those derived by Fécan et al. [1999]. Such high fw values can lead to unrealistically low dust flux values. Therefore, the local soil water capacity was multiplied by 1.5, similar to Zender et al. [2003], leading to fw values in the range calculated by Fécan et al. For the same wg values occurring in the Attica area, the soil moisture effect is stronger as the soil category changes from clay to clay loam, sandy clay loam and loam. The resulting average threshold friction velocity value is 0.35 m s−1, ranging from 0.2 (dry clay loam or clay soil) to 0.7 m s−1 (soil moisture highly above water capacity of a sandy clay loam or clay loam soil), which is realistic [Marticorena et al., 1997; Nickovic et al., 2001; Shaw et al., 2008]. This soil moisture effect reduces the number of active dust emission cells by 10% but does not affect the order of magnitude of AE values calculated for a dry soil. 4.3.4. Coefficient of Proportionality [45] Previous studies on Aeolian dust production have expressed the coefficient of proportionality (equation (2)) involved in dust flux equations as a function of the acceleration gravity g (cm s−2) and of the air density rair (g cm−3) [Marticorena et al., 1997; Zender et al., 2003; Vautard et al., 2005]: C ¼ fbc c air g ð3Þ The parameter c was introduced by Zender et al. [2003] and is a constant of proportionality with a value of 2.61 determined and confirmed by experiments [White, 1979; Greeley and Iversen, 1985]. The factor fbc is related to soil crustation and coverage [Vautard et al., 2005]. [46] The coefficient C given in g s2 cm−4 (equation (3)), is divided by the kinematic viscosity of air (n = m / rair) (cm2 s−1), to provide C in g s3 cm−6, as necessary for equation (2). C ¼ fbc c air 2 g ð4Þ m is the dynamic viscosity of air (g cm−1 s−1), calculated by the Sutherland’s formula [Crane Company, 1988]. [47] In this study, the implementation of fbc as defined by Vautard et al. [2005] gave large overestimations in calcium concentrations when compared to Attica observations [Scheff and Valiozis, 1990; Colbeck et al., 2002; Pateraki et al., 2008]. This was partly attributed to the 2 order of magnitude higher C values (driven by fbc) than those calculated by Shaw et al. [2008]. Therefore, in order to obtain the order of magnitude of C values similar to those calculated by Shaw et al. [2008] and subsequently of the AE values, and calcium concentration predictions, fbc is set to 8 of 21 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS D17301 Figure 5. Calculated soil wetness factor, fw [after Fécan et al., 1999] as a function of the gravimetric soil moisture wg (MM5 output) for each soil category of Attica. Markers for fw = 1 reflect the water capacity (w’) of each soil category. Empty symbols are based on fw calculations directly by Fécan et al. [1999], while solid symbols are the tuned fw calculations. 4 × 10−5. This approximation results in C values ranging from 6 to 9 × 10−14 g s3 cm−6. 4.3.5. Erosion Threshold Friction Velocity [48] In order to avoid the large fractional errors in equation (2) caused by the use of a constant threshold friction velocity (u*t) value [Shaw et al., 2008], the Bagnold [1941] formulation is applied, similar to previous studies [Marticorena and Bergametti, 1995; Nickovic et al., 2001]. This formulation provides u*t as a function of soil class, thus of particle size. Subsequently, erosion thresholds are multiplied by 0.9, to account for dust production during lower wind speeds due to inertia [Nickovic et al., 2001]. [49] The effect of soil class on dust productivity is realized when the erosion threshold friction velocity based on the assumption of Shaw et al. [2008] is compared with the one from Bagnold, after both are multiplied by the soil moisture effect, fw. The latter results in u*t values from 0.2 to 1.4 m s−1, for the Attica area, while previous u*t calculations did not exceed 0.7 m s−1. Therefore, when incorporating the soil class (particle size) effect [Bagnold, 1941] instead of the first u*t approximation in this study [Shaw et al., 2008], dust production from clay (PM2) is not significantly affected, but silt and sand soil classes do not release particles (PM2–50 and PM50–100, respectively), unless higher wind speeds (with u* above 0.5 m s−1) prevail. [50] This modification results in a decrease of the number of active dust emission cells by 30%, causing a reduction in the average dust flux of about 1 order of magnitude to the aforementioned dust flux versions (Figure 6). [51] Including the effect of roughness elements on the threshold friction velocity of adjacent erodible surfaces, as described by Marticorena and Bergametti [1995], was attempted, but rejected from the parameterization. Considering the effect of roughness elements (drag partition), u*t was increased by 3–4 times, resulting in little or no dust pro- duction in Attica, which is unrealistic given the local observations of dust aerosol tracers [Colbeck et al., 2002; Pateraki et al., 2008; Karanasiou et al., 2009]. 4.3.6. Quarries and Earthwork Sites [52] Anthropogenic disturbances by quarry and construction activities cause additional dust emissions, due to vehicle circulation and intense surface dust loading in the greater area of these sites. In the current parameterization, the wind erosion mechanism is simulated, as vehicle load data are not available. A simple source function [Gillette and Passi, 1988] is applied in each soil texture class (i) at the quarry and construction areas of the nested domain. The simplifications for the specific dust emission calculations are that the soil is dry and sandy and the simulated soil dust is equally distributed in the 5 coarser size sections, as crustal material. The coordinates and dimensions of the quarry and earthwork sites are taken from recent Google earth satellite images (Figure 7d). 5. Results 5.1. Dust Emissions [53] The updated vehicle exhaust emission rate (PM10exh) on a typical weekday in Attica range from 3 to 4.4 × 103 kg day−1 (Figure 7a). This variation depicts the uncertainty (15–25%) due to statistical and systematic errors in the applied emission factors, driving pattern, traffic volume, spatial distribution of fleet composition and temporal resolution of emissions [Kühlwein and Friedrich, 2000]. These emissions reflect the 20% of the total conventional aerosol emissions, while the other 80% of the mass reflects maritime, off‐road and agricultural activities, railways and air traffic aerosol emissions. [54] The above emission projection is evaluated against a rough emission calculation based on EEA [2007] exhaust 9 of 21 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS D17301 Figure 6. As in Figure 4 but after all modifications from the current study. emission factors and road transport data for 2005 [Hellenic Ministry of Environment, 2006]. The result, PM10exh = 3.6 × 103 kg day−1, falls into the applied mass emission range. [55] Emission rates (PM10tbr) from dust production processes (tire wear, brake wear and road abrasion) on a typical weekday in Attica range from 1.6 to 3.5 × 103 kg day−1 (Figure 7b). This variation stems from applying the parameterization over the ranges of proposed emission factors [EEA, 2007], vehicle speed (30–100 m s−1), load factor of heavy vehicles (0–1) and the number of axles of heavy vehicles (2–6). The dust source strength is slightly less than that of vehicle exhaust, though for particles with diameters up to 40 mm, dust production ranges from 2.6 to 6.5 × 103 kg day−1 due to the large coarse fraction produced by tire wear and road abrasion (Figure 2). The relative contribution from brakes, tires and road abrasion, to dust production is 40, 30 and 30% of PM10 mass, respectively. These values change to 27, 32 and 41% of PM40 mass, respectively. [56] Vehicle‐induced re‐suspension (Figure 7c) dominates vehicle‐induced production of aerosol (exhaust, wear processes and road abrasion). In particular, the calculated PM10res on a typical weekday in Attica ranges from 16 to 18 × 103 kg day−1, 65% of which is PM2.5 (Figure 2). This suggests that traffic‐induced re‐suspension is a major aerosol source for Attica, as also found for the greater Paris area [Jaecker‐Voirol and Pelt, 2000]. Therefore, road aerosol emissions are likely underestimated by a factor of 4–5, at the Attica area if only car exhaust is considered, while this factor reduces to 2–3 if re‐suspended mass is compared to all production processes. [57] Aeolian erosion emission rates are calculated for the 10 simulated days in Attica (Figure 8). In the evening and early morning hours, AE is minimal due to calm winds near the land surface and increased humidity that prevail during this time of the days examined. The dust production period is limited to the driest daylight hours, with its peak around 1100 and 1600. Peak comparisons among all days give an indication of the average wind regime over the whole simulated domain. The highest hourly dust production (12/04/’06, 13:00) corresponds to a spatial mean friction velocity of 0.9 m s−1, while the lowest peak (11/04/’06, 15:00) is produced by a mean value around 0.2 m s−1. [58] The AE production for these 10 days ranges from 0.8 to 255 × 103 kg day−1. In order to examine more closely the atmospheric and soil effects on dust production by Aeolian erosion processes, April 10, 2006 is selected for further analysis (Figure 7d). For this particular day, under a wide range of surface wind conditions (u* ranges from 0.2 to 1.1 m s−1) the calculated AE value is 14 × 103 kg day−1, emitted from areas away from the urban core. An analysis of AE data for the different soil categories existing in Attica (clay, clay loam, loam and sandy clay loam) revealed that a dry ( fw = 1) clay soil releases 3 orders of magnitude more dust than a moist (fw = 1.7) sandy clay loam soil under the same wind conditions (u* = 0.6 m s−1). 5.2. Simulated Aerosol Concentrations 5.2.1. PM10 and PM2.5 [59] Daily average comparisons of PM10 concentrations at the measuring sites find a low bias in the model simulated values (Table 3). PM10 and PM2.5 comparisons show an average model underestimation, but average PM2.5/PM10 ratios are predicted higher than observed (73 and 61%, respectively). This indicates an average trend for coarse aerosol underestimation. Model performance is greatly 10 of 21 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS D17301 Figure 7. Daily average aerosol emission rates (g hr−1 km−2) in Attica, by (a) vehicle exhaust, (b) vehicle dust production (tire wear, brake wear and road abrasion), (c) vehicle re‐suspension, and (d) Aeolian erosion of soil (10/04/2006). Black symbols show the sites of tolls, tunnels and junctions of the highway in Figure 7a and quarries and earthwork sites in Figure 7d. The daily average aerosol emission rates of these sites are below 20 g hr−1 km−1. improved when excluding from comparisons not only the Saharan dust intrusion day, but all the events with winds above 4 m s−1. Increased atmospheric cleansing effectiveness is rejected as a reason for model discrepancies, since wind speeds are slightly underestimated by MM5. It is argued that local wind‐dependent aerosol sources are not completely captured in the current inventory. [60] Results compare well at the ARI, PIR, MAR, AGP and DEM sites, indicating that anthropogenic aerosol sources including road dust are better captured inside or near the Figure 8. Total hourly emission rates of dust (103 kg hr−1) generated by Aeolian erosion processes over the whole Attica domain, during 10 simulated days. Black vertical lines define the 24‐h period corresponding to the average daily values referred in this article. 11 of 21 12 of 21 26/05 30, 46 32 34 42 64 12/04 16, 9 4.4 (5.3f), 5.1 (0.9f) W, W 49,f 56f 17, 17 1.7 (1.1f), 2.9 (0.9f) SSW, SSW 56,f 60f 14, 14 1.0, 2.7 SW, NW 68,g 63g 20, 21 54 29 63 94 23, 20 20, 23, 23, 28, 27, 53 36, 82 28, 117 10, 137 2006 1.2 (2.7f), 1.9 (0.3f) SSW, SSW 48,f 61f 17, 16 37, 65 45, 90 43, 56 24, 31, 27, 37, 11/04 62, 67 45, 102 23, 56 34, 42 55, 54 34, 55 16, 34 10/04 18, 35 1.8, 5.2 NE, NE 75,g 71g 19, 21 16, 63 14, 36 24, 22 19, 36 14, 33 25, 47 44, 24, 28, 20, 36, 52, 15, 35 17, 45 43, 56 17, 38 4, 20 38, 42 17, 36 11, 27 13, 65 2005 38 24 58 47 35 57 63, 48 52, 36 17, 16 25/05 1.9 (3.5f), 2.7 (0.5f) SSW, SSW 53,f 56f 14, 14 28, 39 45, 57 22, 26 36, 28 50, 43 45, 58 13, 29 13/04 3.4, 5.7 NE, SW 45, 41 16, 18 8, 18 15, 21 1.2, 3.2 SW, SW 50, 49 15, 18 7, 46 16, 27 14, 39 13, 24 14, 26 27, 45 12, 49 10, 42 2.1, 3.1 SW, NE 46, 50 23, 23 21, 36 19, 34 14, 22 32, 49 58 72 21 48 54 38 35 17/05 38, 29, 13, 45, 30, 21, 21, 2007 26/04 22, 35 33, 40 31, 50 18, 30 21, 32 62, 48 29, 55 12, 27 25/04 39 41 12 31 29 25 20 3.24.5 S, NNE 57, 64 18, 20 17, 19 8, 18 7, 11 15, 25 23, 23, 10, 23, 19, 12, 12, 18/05 Errorc 0.33 0.71 0.80 0.15 0.46 0.53 0.58 0.38 0.51 0.60 0.41 0.90 0.84 0.35 0.54 0.65 0.69 0.50 0.45 0.57 −0.19 −0.63 −0.79 −0.15 −0.38 −0.52 −0.58 −0.38 −0.50 −0.60 −0.41 −0.90 −0.84 −0.26 −0.51 −0.65 −0.69 −0.50 0.02 −0.45 −0.45 −0.05 −0.45 −0.53 −0.18 −0.22 −0.44 −0.37 −0.09 −0.32 −0.38 −0.37 Biasd 0.31 0.24 0.55 0.54 0.18 0.33 0.45 0.37 0.09 0.34 0.38 0.37 Errore Mean Fractional Values Biasb N i¼1 2 jCeCoj , where Ce are the modeled and Co are the measured PM10 values for the i out of N sites. CoþCe 2 d Same as footnote b but excluding events with wind speeds above 4 m s−1. e Same as footnote c but excluding events with wind speeds above 4 m s−1. f Refers to values from DEM. g Rain event. MFE = c N P 1 a Bold indicates modeled results, and regular font indicates measured results, in mg m–3. Observations for aerosol are from the National Air Pollution Monitoring Network (except from DEM data of this study). Meteorological data are from and the National Observatory of Athens. N P b ðCeCoÞ . MFB = N1 i¼1 CoþCe ARI LYK THR PIR MAR ZOG AGP DEM COL IRA GOU HER PAT VOL Average PM2.5 LYK PIR AGP DEM Average Wind speed (m s−1) Wind direction RH (%) Temperature (C) PM10 Table 3. Daily Average PM10, PM2.5, Meteorological Values and Evaluation Statistics, for Modeling Periods, at Several Greek Stationsa D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS D17301 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS D17301 Figure 9. Diurnal (April 10 and 11, 2006) variation of observed (dots) and predicted (black lines) PM10 values (mg m−3), at the highway sites of (a) IRA and (b) COL. Red lines show the diurnal variation of the conventional anthropogenic emissions applied in the model (daily average value around 2 kg hr−1 km−2). urban core. Increased model efficiency during weak wind conditions shows the importance of coarse dust aerosol production when wind acts on urban surfaces. The underestimation at the highway stations (COL and IRA) is readily explained since the model considers the intense local emissions homogeneously and instantaneously mixed over a grid cell, while the measured morning peaks reflect the local emission regime (Figure 9). These discrepancies become more obvious during the afternoon hours when the mixing height predictions become higher. This is also supported by the low predicted aerosol, NO2 and CO values, despite the emission rates that follow the daily variation of measurements remaining high during the afternoon (Figure S1 in the auxiliary material).1 The morning and night traffic peaks are well captured by the model. Increased discrepancies at THR and LYK (Table 3) suggest greater emission uncertainties in these rapidly developing, suburban areas, due to construction activities and other wind‐related processes. Model discrepancies at HER and PAT (Table 3) are mainly attributed to the point (measurements) being less reflective of area predictions, as the model resolution at the periphery of Greece is lower (6 km). 5.2.2. Sensitivity Study [61] A sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to assess the response to inclusion of road and soil dust production mechanisms in aerosol modeling. The 10th of April is selected to show the current dust incorporation effects to predictions (Figure 10). Comparison of simulations with and without dust emissions shows that the dust component corresponds to about 15–40% (5–20 mg m−3) of the total PM10 predictions. Larger dust mass quantities at the traffic‐ oriented stations (ARI, MAR, COL, IRA) indicate that vehicle‐induced dust is the major PM10 dust component near the road network. This is tested with a simulation without the natural component of dust emissions (Aeolian erosion). Subtracting results from the total PM10 predictions 1 Auxiliary materials are available in the HTML. doi:10.1029/ 2009JD013207. shows insignificant Aeolian soil dust fraction at the traffic areas. Results in the urban core (ARI) indicate that road dust emissions are well estimated by the model. The emission rates of dust re‐suspension from the road network greatly dominate other primary aerosol production mechanisms (section 5.1) and this process typically is responsible for a large majority of the dust component of aerosol in the greater Athens area. The exception to the above occurs when high winds are observed above rather dry soil surfaces with a large fraction of clay. In such conditions, Aeolian erosion can produce much greater quantities of dust than the road re‐suspension process (section 5.1). Nevertheless, in the greater Athens area road dust still dominates because such land use characteristics occur far from the Athens basin. [62] In order to minimize arbitrary approximations, in this study the constant input parameters in the emission parameterizations schemes were replaced with functional forms, when this was feasible. Nevertheless, the coefficient fbc (in equation (4)), that forms directly the order of magnitude of dust emission rates, remains a constant. Thus, its value is settled so that concentration predictions are reasonable according to local measurements (section 4.3). 5.2.3. Wind Fields [63] MM5 predicted calmer conditions during the 11th of April and consequently increased simulated pollution accumulation from CAMx (“non‐dust PM10” in Figure 10), but less than observed. Diurnal variation of aerosol levels (Figure 9) confirms that although the applied emission database is similar for each weekday, the model captures the different morning peaks. Nevertheless, a possible increase in real emissions during the 11th of April, might also contribute to the existing discrepancies. High observed PM10 at LYK is similar to the next day’s measurement that is diagnosed to be a Saharan dust event, although all other stations seem unaffected. [64] Comparison of simulated inorganic aerosol mass to measurements varies by day. Simulations of the events in 10–11 and 12–13 of April, 2006 show better performance 13 of 21 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS D17301 Figure 10. Measured and simulated daily average PM10 concentrations (mg m−3) in the Attica area (April 10 and 11, 2006). Location of all sites is shown in Figure 1. Two measuring sites (linked with an error bar) exist in the location named as LYK. (Figures 11 and 12). DEM wind field data for the two events are similar (SW winds around 1 m s−1), and reflect the Saronic Gulf breeze effect frequently observed and simulated in Athens [Melas et al., 1998; Dandou et al., 2009]. During a short afternoon period of the 10th of April, the wind direction changes to SE and intensifies up to 3 m s−1 at the DEM station. This is already characterized as the effect of the Evoicos Gulf breeze that cannot be captured by modeling at this site [Bossioli et al., 2007]. Local aerosol is found to contain sodium, chloride and magnesium in the fine particles that are possibly attributed to the SE air mass entrainment. The fine potassium peak around the diameter of 0.3mm may be related to biomass burning [Karanasiou et al., 2009] from sources located southeasterly of DEM. The applied emission inventory does not currently involve biomass burning activities, thus, even if the model could capture the SE air intrusion, it couldn’t have shown increases in potassium. 5.2.4. Sodium, Chloride, Magnesium, and Potassium [65] Simulated sodium compares very well to measurements, while chloride observations show very low values, possibly due to depletion during transport as observed in earlier studies [Eleftheriadis et al., 2006b]. Predictions of both species follow the regular size profile reported for seawater [Lewis and Schwartz, 2005] and are predicted to be sea‐salt dominated (95%). The sea‐salt origin of sodium and chloride is supported by aerosol observations during 12–13/ 04/2006, due to constant onshore WSW winds. [66] Magnesium shows the best performance of all species. Sodium to magnesium PM10 mass ratio is calculated (around 6) similar to the value (of 8) reported for seawater [Lewis and Schwartz, 2005], while the measured and modeled size distribution of the coarser fraction follows that of sodium chloride during 12–13/04/2006. The highest marine contribution to magnesium mass (75%) is reached during this period, as expected. Observations at a southwestern Mediterranean coast also showed the almost exclusive marine origin of magnesium [Nicolás et al., 2009]. Predictions for potassium are limited to its coarse part, which follows measurements, especially for 10–11/04/2006. Sea salt and dust contribute equally to its predicted value. 5.2.5. Calcium [67] Wind field data (Table 3) for these two successive events give a clear indication that the synoptic flow during 12–13/04/2006 (W and SSW winds with hourly values up to 11 m s−1) decreases PM2.5/PM10 values and total PM10 concentrations at DEM. This is depicted in both measurements and predictions (Figures 11 and 12) and shows the importance of fine aerosol during low winds, which are effectively removed by strong winds. The simultaneous production of local dust can be identified by calcium, which is commonly used as a tracer for dust aerosol. [68] Aeolian dust production from soil surfaces results in reasonable calcium levels according to this and other studies [Scheff and Valiozis, 1990; Colbeck et al., 2002; Pateraki et al., 2008]. Calcium predictions are around 2–4 mg m−3 (Figure 13a) and the size distribution predicted in areas located near high Aeolian dust emissions follows measurements during this study (bold line in Figure 11). Simulated calcium levels at DEM are below observations, largely in the coarse fraction. This supports previous concerns of a missing wind‐driven but local dust source, possibly corresponding to re‐suspension from urban surfaces, such as the road network and its adjacent open land surfaces or local construction areas. [69] The model underestimation of total aerosol and calcium in the PM10–40 fraction intensifies during 12–13/04/ 2006 because of the Saharan dust intrusion. Measured winds at DEM for this event are similar to the previous (Table 3) supporting that increases in PM10–40 measurements is dust transported from the Sahara desert by the higher synoptic winds. The primary aerosol peak around 10 mm sums up to a difference of 9.4 mg m−3 between the measured PM40 concentrations of the two events. Focusing on PM10 values, the 14 of 21 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS Figure 11. Size distribution of measured (dots) and modeled (lines) values of aerosol species (10–11 of April, 2006, DEM site). The bottom line shows simulated non‐dust aerosol values. The top line shows total simulated species concentrations. The striped area is the dust component of aerosol. The bold line in calcium plot shows Aeolian erosion calcium at a high erosion emissions cell. The bold line in PM plot shows the output of the alternative size profile for re‐suspension. Total PM10 values (PM10m: modeled / PM10o: measured, in mg m−3) are shown at the top right corner of each species plot. 15 of 21 D17301 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS D17301 Figure 12. As in Figure 11 but for 12–13 of April, 2006. Saharan dust contribution corresponds to 21% of PM10, which is close to 25%, found in an Athens suburb by Mitsakou et al. [2008]. Calcium exhibits a primary coarse peak around the same diameter that corresponds to the half mass of Saharan dust contribution (4.7 mg m−3). 5.2.6. Carbon [70] Elemental and organic carbon were simulated but not measured for this study. Their calculated dust fraction corresponds to 55% and 75% of their PM10 mass (3.5 and 4.5 mg m−3, respectively). Available PM10 measurements 16 of 21 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS D17301 Figure 13. Spatial distribution of average daily (12–13/04/2006) concentrations (mg m−3) over Attica: − (a) PM 10 calcium (Ca 2+ ), (b) PM 10 sulfate (SO 2− 4 ), (c) PM 10 nitrate (NO 3 ), (d) PM 10 ammonium + (NH4 ), (e) total PM2.5, and (f) total PM10. The black dot indicates the DEM measuring station. of elemental and organic carbon showed average values of 1.8 ± 0.6 and 5.7 ± 2.8 mg m−3, respectively [Prosmitis et al., 2003]. Total carbon predictions are satisfactory, while the organic fraction is largely improved after dust incorporation due to its large fraction that is re‐suspended from road surfaces. Thus, including wind‐driven aerosol re‐suspension from the road network is believed to further improve the organic carbon model performance. Simultaneous carbon measurements would help to evaluate tire wear, road abrasion and re‐suspension algorithms (Table 1) and assess wind‐driven re‐suspension effects. 5.2.7. Secondary Inorganic Species [71] Simulated sulfate concentrations are moderately lower than the observed values during calm conditions (Figure 11). Results from a process analysis of measurement data conducted by the National Air Pollution Monitoring 17 of 21 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS Network revealed that SO2 values have increased since 2004 at Athens traffic sites, possibly reflecting a higher sulfur content in vehicular fuel not being reported in the emission database. This could lead to the poor correlation between fine PM measurements and simulations during this event. Another reason for the differences could be the SE afternoon winds that the meteorological model failed to capture. The windier event shows a good model performance (Figure 12). Sulfate‐rich air masses are predicted to come from the industrial area west of the city center (Figure 13b). A sensitivity simulation performed without the conventional area sources confirms the industrial origin of sulfate. Measured values during 12–13/04/2006 drop due to the higher winds that disperse the fine aerosol emitted by the sulfate‐rich vehicular fuel combustion or other area sources. [72] Nitrate and ammonium concentrations (Figures 13c and 13d) depend on the relative molar quantities of sulfate, ammonium, crustal and sodium species [Fountoukis and Nenes, 2007]. Observations and predictions of aerosol over the greater Athens area show a regime poor in sulfate and crustal species but rich in sodium. Comparison of simulations with and without dust emissions shows that the dust component of PM10 sulfate corresponds to about 10– 15% (Figures 11 and 12). Reactions of sulfuric acid on sea salt and crustal particles leave little sulfate for ammonia to neutralize. [73] Free ammonia reacts with nitric acid to form ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3). Total nitrate compares very well to measurements, while total ammonium is found moderately overestimated. Their predicted amounts are slightly affected by dust production (Figures 11 and 12). This is also deduced from coarse nitrate measurements, which follow the sea‐salt profile of sodium (12–13/04/ 2006). Its measured coarse peak value is similar between events regardless the large calcium differences due to Saharan dust. It is suggested that adjustments in the ammonia emission values are the major reason for the good total nitrate and ammonium model performance, though may have been slightly overestimated. [74] Differences between measured and predicted size distributions of secondary species are found mainly in the fine fraction. The observed sulfate peak around 0.6mm is followed but underestimated (Figure 11). In the measurements, nitrate and ammonium concentration peak at the same diameter as the sulfates, while in the model the peak of the fine mode is predicted at around 0.2mm. Measurements reflecting 0.6mm mass fraction, show air masses rich in sulfate, thus sulfate captures ammonia toward ammonium sulfate [(NH4)2SO4] formation and then nitrate reacts with available ammonia toward NH4NO3. A difference in RH between measurements and predictions (Table 3) may have caused differences in the deliquescence and subsequent growth in ionic mixtures. Higher RH measurement values can lead to increased deliquescence and growth of NH4NO3 particles, while lower RH predictions limit the hydroscopic growth of particles in the model. 5.2.8. Total Aerosol Mass [75] The size distribution of total aerosol mass predictions follows measurements (Figure 11), though a shift of mass from finer to coarser bins could improve performance. The application of the alternative size distribution of re‐suspended material (Figure 2) caused a decrease in D17301 simulated PM10 due to the increased dry deposition flux of coarse particles. The effect of the size shift on fine aerosol shows that vehicle‐induced re‐suspension is the basic component of dust aerosol at DEM. This finding follows results in dust emissions (paragraph 5.1), expected for traffic‐ affected areas. Coarse aerosol is still underestimated, showing that size modifications in the applied source profiles cannot compensate model discrepancies. Total aerosol mass closure is mainly affected by deficiencies in particle diameters greater than 10mm. This chemically unresolved sand material is regarded of minor health impact, thus of less importance for air quality management and modeling. [76] During the moderate rainy event of 25–26/05/2005 (Figure S2 in the auxiliary material), simulated levels of all species are low, while fine particles dominate aerosol measurements. The wet deposition effect is predicted very efficient in all sizes, while fine aerosol measurements seem unaffected by deposition processes possibly due to a positive correlation of humidity with aerosol of such sizes [Nicolás et al., 2009]. 6. Conclusions [77] An emission inventory for road dust emissions developed from detailed parameterizations finds that vehicle‐induced re‐suspension is the major contributor to aerosol emissions from the Athens’ road network, followed by brakes, tires and road abrasion. The simultaneous parameterization of soil dust production can give higher emissions, though located in less urbanized but more extended areas at the periphery of the city. Not only does the use of the developed method extend model capabilities to better capture dust levels, but also these results show that inclusion of a spatially temporally more accurate approach to estimating dust emissions does alter the concentrations of related pollutant species, and can improve how accurately air quality models simulate the impact of emission sources on air quality. [78] Comparisons of PM10 concentrations at traffic‐ affected stations show that incorporating dust of different types improves model accuracy. Toward the periphery of the urban core, dust appears to be underestimated, most probably because its wind component is misrepresented by the model in areas where soil surfaces co‐exist with urbanized land. Incorporation of an emission scheme representing wind‐induced particle re‐suspension from urban surfaces is believed to further improve model’s efficiency. [79] Carbon, calcium, potassium, magnesium and sulfates are the influenced species by incorporating dust in the aerosol modeling. Calcium, which is regarded as a soil dust tracer, reaches the measured values outside the city center where high Aeolian dust emissions are simulated. Saharan dust is currently omitted from the applied dust emissions, thus model results concerning crustal species were expected to be poor. However, predictions concerning sodium, chloride and magnesium species can be compared to observations during such episodes, given the strong southern winds that form well‐established sea‐salt profiles. [80] A meteorological parameter that appears critical to aerosol predictions is the diffusion efficiency of the atmosphere. During the afternoon and evening hours, model discrepancies increase although the emission trend follows 18 of 21 D17301 ATHANASOPOULOU ET AL.: DUST INCORPORATION IN PM SIMULATIONS the observations. This finding is attributed to an overestimation in the mixing height from meteorological simulations and is clearly illustrated at sites adjacent to emission sources. Humidity is also found to affect model performance, particularly impacting the size distribution of secondary aerosol formation. The atmosphere is predicted to be drier than measured, thus fine ammonium nitrate predictions peak at smaller sizes due to limited deliquescence and growth. [81] Total secondary inorganic aerosol depends on sulfate production and formation. The spatial distribution of sulfates shows a strong industrial origin and low concentrations are predicted inside the urban core during lower winds. This allows for greater ammonium nitrate production, which was well captured by the model. During higher wind conditions observed sulfate concentrations are lower but not in the simulations, indicating that their local origin is not fully captured in the emission database. Higher sulfate predictions lead to nitrate underestimations due to increased ammonia being tied up with sulfate. [82] The parameterization developed in this work can be used in other urban, regional and global modeling applications, which can be combined so as the boundary conditions for the chemical species, included dust, to be provided to regional applications by the global models. Having a more accurate approach to simulating emissions across scales can provide consistent dust concentration fields for assessing impacts on not only air quality but radiative transfer as well. [ 83 ] Acknowledgments. This work was supported by PENED, which is co‐financed by E.U.‐European Social Fund (75%) and the Greek Ministry of Development‐GSRT (25%). We want to thank V. A. Karydis, A. P. Tsimpidi, and S. N. Pandis for use of the new code routines employed in the model. 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