IEEJ：April 2017 © IEEJ2017
Oil Market Review in Japan No. 03/2017
April 28, 2017, Friday
Released at 14:00 every Friday
Publisher: Oil Information Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Inui Bldg. Kachidoki, 11th Floor, 13-1, Kachidoki 1-chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, 104-8581 Japan
https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/weekly_oil/index.php
■ Overview
On the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) between April 6 and 12, the key WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil
futures contract moved within a firmer range between $51.70 per barrel and $53.40/bbl.
On April 13, the May contract rallied as the IEA (International Energy Agency) in its monthly oil market report said that oil
producing countries steadily implemented their coordinated production cut, with OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)
improving its compliance with its target production cut to 104%, bringing the oil market closeｒ to a supply-demand equilibrium. However, the
rise was limited as Baker Hughes reported that the number of operating U.S. oil-drilling rigs increased by 11 from a week earlier to 683 for the
13th straight weekly rise. The key contract closed at $53.18/bbl, up $0.07/bbl from the previous day.
On April 17 after a three-day weekend including Good Friday, the key WTI futures contract turned down after a three-week rising
streak on an expected U.S. production expansion as indicated by the rising number of operating U.S. oil-drilling rigs. The May contract closed
$0.53/bbl lower at $52.65/bbl.
On April 18, the key WTI futures contract fell further on concern over growing U.S. crude oil production. However, a forecast U.S.
crude oil inventory decline before a weekly U.S. oil inventory report on the next day and the dollar’s depreciation against the euro making
dollar-denominated crude futures prices lower worked to limit the decline. The May contract closed $0.24/bbl lower at $52.41/bbl.
On April 19, the key WTI futures contract dropped further with a steep decline as concern over U.S. oil oversupply grew on a
weekly EIA (Energy Information Administration) report including a U.S. gasoline inventory increase against a market-forecast drop and a
slower-than-forecast fall in crude oil inventories. Selling for position adjustment added fuel to the decline. The May contract lost $1.97/bbl to
$50.44/bbl.
The Asian benchmark crude oil of Dubai for May delivery on the Tokyo market in the previous week moved within a firm range
between $52.40/bbl and $54.90/bbl. It ended at $54.20/bbl on April 13, at $54.00/bbl on April 14, at $53.80/bbl on April 17, at $53.80/bbl on
April 18 and at $53.00/bbl on April 19.
On the foreign exchange market in the previous week, the dollar ranged from 109.58 yen to 111.43 yen, depreciating against the yen
slightly. It changed hands at 108.83 yen in late trading on April 13, at 109.22 yen on April 14, at 108.29 yen on April 17, at 109.19 yen on April
18 and at 108.56 yen on April 19.
According to preliminary 10-day trade statistics released by the Ministry of Finance on April 20, the average crude oil import CIF
price in the March 21-31 period stood at 40,260 yen/kl (kiloliter), down 139 yen/kl from the previous 10-day period. In dollars, the price was
$56.02/bbl, down $0.62/bbl. The average exchange rate was 114.25 yen to the dollar. According to preliminary monthly trade statistics released
by the ministry on the same day, the average crude oil import CIF price in March came to 40,171 yen/kl, up 755 yen/kl from the previous
month. In dollars, the price was $56.13/bbl, up $0.88/bbl. The average exchange rate was 113.77 yen to the dollar.
Wholesale prices of gasoline and middle distillates that major Motouri (petroleum products wholesalers) applied to the fourth week
of April were kept unchanged from the previous week. Crude oil procurement cost rose slightly despite the yen’s appreciation as crude oil prices
increased.
Japan’s average retail price on April 17 stood at 134.0 yen/l (liter) for gasoline, up 0.1 yen/l from a week earlier, at 112.3 yen/l for
diesel oil, up 0.1 yen/l, and at 77.7 yen/l for kerosene (heating oil), unchanged. The gasoline and diesel oil prices rose for the first time in three
weeks. The kerosene price stopped its descent for the first time in three weeks. In the third week of April when crude oil cost rose, some
Motouri companies raised wholesale prices of petroleum products by 1.0 yen/l and others left such prices unchanged.
From
Crude oil
This week
a week
earlier
Crude oil runs
Supply/ Topper capacity
Demand utilization rate
Crude oil inventories
Middle Eastern crude
oil (TOCOM)
WTI crude oil
(NYMEX)
Crude oil import CIF
(%)
4/9
～
4/15
〃
－
90.1
▲
1.1
→
－
4/17
54.23
($/bbl)
4/17
52.65
351
▼
▲
0.13
▲
16.8
▼
-0.43
▲
12.9
－
145.29
[NYMEX]WTI crude oil
138.54
[TOCOM]MiddleEastern
crude oil
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
119.37
120.92
113.93
110.33
99.62
89.47
80.0 78.21
86.84
72.68
70.0
56.02
▼
-0.62
▲
23.85
〃
40,260
▼
-139
▲
17,368
(yen/dollar)
〃
114.25
▼
-0.85
▼
-1.11
(yen/dollar)
4/17
109.29
▲
3.14
▼
-0.28
rate
TTS exchange rate
②Yen-dollar exchange
▼
($/bbl)
(yen/kl)
CIF price
41
▲
Ｌａｔｅ Ｍａｒ
①Crude oil import
▲
12,827
($/b)
150.0
140.0
3,527
4/15
(1,000 kl)
($/bbl)
price
Prices
(1,000 kl)
From
a year earlier
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
4/17
1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5
1
IEEJ：April 2017 © IEEJ2017
Oil Market Review in Japan No. 03/2017
(Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l)
From
This week
Gasoline
a week
earlier
4/9
Production
Supply/
Demand
4/15
1,012
▼
-15
▼
Shipments
〃
953
▲
22
▲
－
Exports
〃
45
▲
19
▼
－
1,775
▲
13
▼
－
average lorry rack price]
(RIM)
(TOCOM/
Futures [front-month
contract/closing price]
Tokyo Bay)
(TOCOM/
Chubu)
Retail prices [weekly
(published
trend]
by ANRE)
n.a.
－
n.a.
Gyoten (spot) [4-district
n.a.
135.0
4/11
～
4/17
52.7
▼
-0.1
▲
13.5
4/11
～
4/17
51.1
▼
-0.2
▲
10.1
4/17
50.9
▼
-1.0
▲
12.4
4/17
134.0
▲
0.1
▲
17.4
*Gyoten and futures prices are before tax
From
This week
Diesel oil
a week
earlier
Supply/
Demand
4/9
4/15
738
▲
40
▼
Shipments
〃
590
▼
-55
▲
－
Exports
〃
92
▲
44
▼
－
1,501
▲
57
▲
－
4/15
(RIM)
(TOCOM/
Futures [front-month
contract/closing price]
Tokyo Bay)
(TOCOM/
Chubu)
Retail prices [weekly
(published
trend]
by ANRE)
130.0
125.0
n.a.
4/17
50.8
▼
-0.1
▲
14.2
4/11
～
4/17
48.0
→
0.0
▲
13.2
4/17
112.3
－
▲
0.1
4/17
(￥/Ｌ)
120.0
Diesel oil (retail)
115.0
～
－
3/22
n.a.
4/11
4/17
2/21
－
n.a.
average lorry rack price]
131.1
a year earlier
〃
Gyoten (spot) [4-district
Prices
～
From
Imports
Inventories
134.0
1/23
(Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l)
Production
Gasoline (retail)
a year earlier
〃
4/15
140.0
From
Imports
Inventories
Prices
～
(￥/Ｌ)
112.3
110.5
110.0
－
▲
12.9
*Gyoten and futures prices are before tax
105.0
1/23
2/21
3/22
4/17
(￥/Ｌ)
(Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l)
From
This week
Kerosene
a week
earlier
4/9
Production
Supply/
Demand
4/15
248
▼
-37
a year earlier
▲
n.a.
Kerosene (retail)
－
Imports
〃
n.a.
Shipments
〃
250
▼
-115
▲
－
n.a.
Exports
〃
0
→
0
→
－
972
▼
-1
▼
－
80.0
4/15
Inventories
Gyoten (spot) [4-district
average lorry rack price]
(RIM)
(TOCOM/
Prices
～
85.0
From
Futures [front-month
contract/closing price]
Tokyo Bay)
(TOCOM/
Chubu)
Retail prices [weekly
(published
trend]
by ANRE)
4/11
～
4/17
49.5
→
0.0
▲
14.5
4/11
～
4/17
46.9
▲
0.6
▲
12.2
4/17
47.2
→
0.0
▲
14.9
4/17
77.7
→
0.0
▲
15.8
78.1
77.7
75.0
70.0
1/23
2/21
3/22
4/17
2
IEEJ：April 2017 © IEEJ2017
Oil Market Review in Japan No. 03/2017
■ Relevant Information
Overseas crude oil prices
1
On April 19, the most frequently traded WTI futures contract on the NYMEX dropped substantially for the third
straight daily fall as concern over oversupply spread on the weekly EIA report that gasoline inventories posted an increase of
1.5 million barrels against a market-forecast decrease of 1.9 million barrels, with crude oil inventories falling by 1 million
barrels against a market-forecast 1.5 million barrels. Me-too and position-adjusting selling added fuel to the drop. The May
contract closed at $50.44/bbl, down $1.97/bbl from the previous day. The June contract finished at $50.85/bbl, down $2.00/bbl.
According to the EIA, the average U.S. retail price of gasoline as of April 17 increased by 1.2 cents per gallon from a
week earlier to $2.436/gal (70.2 yen/l). The average diesel oil price went up by 1.5 cents/gal to $2.597 gal (72.0 yen/l). The
gasoline and diesel prices rose for the third straight week.
2
Petroleum products supply and demand in Japan (1) Shipments
According to a weekly report by the PAJ (Petroleum
Association of Japan), inactive topper capacity during the April 915 week stood at 268,000 barrels per day, down 66,000 bpd from
the previous week (total capacity stood at 3,519,000 bpd).
Crude oil throughput in the week rose by 41,000 kl
from the previous week to 3,527,000 kl. From a year earlier, it
decreased by 175,000 kl. The topper capacity utilization rate stood
at 90.1%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous week and up
2.9 points from a year earlier.
Output increased from the previous week for jet fuel
and diesel oil while decreasing for other petroleum products.
Output was down 1.4% for gasoline, up 18.5% for jet fuel, down
13.0% for kerosene, up 5.7% for diesel oil, down 21.4% for Fuel
Oil A and down 3.7% for Fuel Oil C. Fuel Oil C imports in the
week totaled 67,000 kl, up 32,000 kl from the previous week.
Diesel oil exports aggregated 92,000 kl, up 44,000 kl.
Shipments (sales volume) in the week increased from
the previous week for gasoline, jet fuel and Fuel Oil C and
decreased for other petroleum products. From a year earlier,
shipments decreased for Fuel Oil A and C and increased for
others. Gasoline shipments increased by 2.3% from the previous
week to 953,000 kl. They increased week on week for the first
time in two weeks and increased year on year for the second
straight week, remaining below 1 million kl for the 11th straight
week.
Shipments totaled 91,000 kl for jet fuel (up 27.4% from
the previous week), 250,000 kl for kerosene (down 31.5%), 590,000
kl for diesel oil (down 8.5%), 206,000 kl for Fuel Oil A (down
11.1%) and 260,000 kl for Fuel Oil C (up 23.3%).
(Unit: 1,000 kl)
This week
(4/9
～
4/15)
From
Previous week
(4/2
～
a week earlier
4/8)
953
931
▲
22
（2%）
91
71
▲
20
（ 28%）
250
365
▼
-115
（-32%）
Diesel oil
590
645
▼
-55
（-9%）
Fuel oil A
206
231
▼
-25
（-11%）
Fuel Oil C
260
211
▲
49
（ 23%）
2,350
2,454
▼
-104 （-4%）
Gasoline
Jet fuel
Kerosene (heating
Oil)
Total
This week’s shipments = (Previous weekend inventories + This week’s production
+ This week’s imports) - (This week’s exports + This weekend inventories)
2
Petroleum products supply and demand in Japan (2) Inventories
Inventories as of April 15 decreased from a week
earlier for kerosene and Fuel Oil C and increased for other
petroleum products. From a year earlier, inventories decreased for
gasoline, kerosene and Fuel Oil C and increased for other
petroleum products.
Gasoline inventories totaled 1,775,000 kl, up 13,000 kl
from a week earlier and down 70,000 kl from a year earlier.
Kerosene inventories totaled 972,000 kl, down 1,000 kl
from a week earlier and down 196,000 kl from a year earlier.
Diesel oil inventories totaled 1,501,000 kl, up 57,000
kl from a week earlier and up 40,000 kl from a year earlier.
Fuel Oil A inventories totaled 792,000 kl, up 9,000 kl from a week
earlier and up 24,000 kl from a year earlier.
Fuel Oil C inventories totaled 1,923,000 kl, up 27,000
kl from a week earlier and down 134,000 kl from a year earlier.
(Unit: 1,000 kl)
From
This week
Previous week
(4/15)
(4/8)
Gasoline
1,775
1,762
▲
13
（1%）
Jet fuel
986
926
▲
60
（6%）
Kerosene (heating
972
973
▼
-1
（-0%）
Diesel oil
1,501
1,444
▲
57
（4%）
Fuel oil A
792
783
▲
9
（1%）
Fuel Oil C
1,923
1,950
▼
-27 （-1%）
7,949
7,838
▲
111
Oil)
Total
a week earlier
（1.4%）
3
IEEJ：April 2017 © IEEJ2017
Oil Market Review in Japan No. 03/2017
Petroleum products wholesale prices in Japan (1) Wholesale price revision trend
3
Between April 11 and 17, crude oil cost apparently rose on crude oil price hikes, despite the yen’s appreciation.
Onshore cargo spot prices in the week moved between 106 and 107 yen/l for gasoline, down slightly from the previous week, between 50 and 51 yen/l for diesel oil, unchanged, and between 49 and 50 yen/l for kerosene, up slightly. Offshore barge spot prices moved between 101 and 104 yen/l for gasoline, between 47 and 49 yen/l for diesel oil and between 46 and 48 yen/l for kerosene. The gasoline and diesel
oil prices decreased. The key futures price ranged between 103 and 106 yen/l for gasoline, down slightly, between 48 and 49 yen/l for diesel oil,
unchanged, and between 46 and 48 yen/l for kerosene. Wholesale prices of petroleum products were kept unchanged by some Motouri companies and raised by 1.0 yen/l by others.
On April 20, JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy Corp. said that it would leave its onshore spot direct prices unchanged for all petroleum
products for shipments from April 22.
3
Petroleum products wholesale prices in Japan (2) Spot (Gyoten) and futures price trend
(RIM)
While crude oil cost rose, spot petroleum products price
changes and market responses were mixed. Weekly gasoline sales
volume remained below 1 million kl for 11 weeks on end.
The latest onshore cargo spot price (the average onshore
rack price for four districts -- Chiba, Kawasaki, Chukyo and Hanshin - for April 11-17) that influences Motouri’s wholesale prices applied
to the fourth week of April (April 20-26) fell by 0.1 yen/l for gasoline
and diesel oil and remained unchanged for kerosene. The average
offshore barge spot price in Tokyo Bay went down by 1.0 yen/l for
gasoline and by 1.5 yen/l for diesel oil and rose by 0.7 yen/l for
kerosene. The key futures price decreased by 0.2 yen/l for gasoline,
remained unchanged for diesel oil and rose by 0.6 yen/l for kerosene.
Crude oil cost rose as the yen’s appreciation partially offset crude oil
price hikes.
Major Motouri companies left wholesale prices of
petroleum products unchanged for the fourth week of April. Motouri
companies based wholesale price revisions on crude oil and petroleum
products market prices and each other’s prices from 2010 and have
adopted an approach giving greater priority to crude oil acquisition
cost since June 2014.
(Unit: yen/l)
[4-district
This week
average lorry
rack price]
Spot
Prices
(4/11
～
4/17)
Previous week
From a week
(4/4
earlier
～
4/10)
Regular
52.7
52.8
▼
-0.1
Kerosene
49.5
49.5
→
0.0
Diesel oil
50.8
50.9
▼
-0.1
This week
Previous week
From a week
(4/4
earlier
(TOCOM)
(Unit: yen/l)
[Front-month
contract/closing
price]
[Average]
Futures
Price
(4/11
～
4/17)
～
4/10)
Regular
51.1
51.3
▼
-0.2
Kerosene
46.9
46.3
▲
0.6
Diesel oil
48.0
48.0
→
0.0
Above prices are before tax.
Reference (April 11 - April 17 actual data)
(Unit: yen/l)
Products
Spot
Futures
Average
Gasoline
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
Kerosene
0.0
0.6
0.3
Diesel oil
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
Fuel Oil A
0.2
(Source) Spot: RIM 4-district average lorry rack price
(Chiba, Kawasaki, Chukyo, Hanshin)
Futures: TOCOM average offshore barge spot price for Keihin District
4
Retail prices of petroleum products in Japan
The average retail service station price as of April 17 rose by 0.1 yen/l to 134.0 yen/l for gasoline and by 0.1 yen/l to 112.3 yen/l for
diesel oil and remained unchanged at 77.7 yen/l for kerosene. The gasoline and diesel prices rose for the first time in three weeks. The kerosene
price fell stopped a fall for the first time in three weeks.
Gasoline prices rose in 22 prefectures, remained unchanged in eight and dropped in 17. The lowest gasoline price among the
prefectures was 128.9 yen/l in Saitama Prefecture (up 0.5 yen/l from a week earlier). The second lowest was 131.0 yen/l in Chiba (up 0.3 yen/l).
The highest price was 141.3 yen/l in Kagoshima (down 0.1 yen/l). Posting the largest price hike of 0.8 yen/l was Ehime (135.8 yen/l).
Recording the largest price drop of 0.7 yen were Kanagawa (131.1 yen/l) and Wakayama (133.9 yen/l). The gasoline price remained unchanged
in eight prefectures -- Oita, Saga, Kochi, Gifu, Fukui, Tochigi, Aichi and Ibaraki.
As crude oil cost increased, with wholesale gasoline prices raised by 1.0 yen by a majority of Motouri firms, the average retail
gasoline price rose slightly for the first time in two weeks. Crude oil cost rose on crude oil price hikes, despite the yen’s appreciation. Motouri
companies left wholesale prices of petroleum products unchanged. Retail gasoline and kerosene prices are likely to rise slightly next week (as
of April 24).
(Unit: yen/l)
(Published by
ANRE)[Weekly
This week
Previous week
(4/17)
(4/10)
134.0
133.9
▲
0.1
Kerosene
77.7
77.7
→
0.0 08/8/11 132.1
Diesel oil
112.3
112.2
▲
0.1
trend]
Regular
From a week
earlier
Latest high
08/8/4
185.1
Nationwide average cash retail price
(including consumption tax)
Retail
Price
Since April 2007, 2,000 service stations
have been covered.
Latest highs are highest levels since
08/8/4
167.4
October 2003.
4
IEEJ：April 2017 © IEEJ2017
Oil Market Review in Japan No. 03/2017
Gasoline price trend
(2017/2/6 ～
150.0
2017/4/17)
（￥/Ｌ ）
（￥/Ｌ)
70.0
Left scale: retail prices
140.0
65.0
Retail price
130.0
60.0
120.0
RIM (offshore barge)
55.0
110.0
50.0
TOCOM/ futures, Chubu
100.0
TOCOM/ futures, Tokyo Bay
RIM (onshore)
45.0
90.0
Right scale: RIM and futures prices
80.0
2/6
2/13
Retail price
2/20
2/27
RIM (offshore barge)
3/6
3/13
3/21
TOCOM ( futures, Tokyo Bay)
4/10
40.0
4/17
TOCOM ( futures price, Chubu)
RIM (onshore)
3/27
4/3
(Note) ① Retail price includes consumption Tax, RIM, TOCOM prices are before tax.
② RIM (onshore) is the aberage of four district .
5
IEEJ：April 2017 © IEEJ2017
Oil Market Review in Japan No. 03/2017
■ Announcement
This report is available at the center’s website (http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/).
The next issue (No. 4 for 2017) will be announced at 14:00 on May 12.
On use of this report
The copyrights to texts, graphics and other information
(hereinafter combined into “documents”) in this report belong
to the Oil Information Center of the Institute of Energy
Economics, Japan (hereinafter referred to as this Center), or
to third parties contributing the documents to this Center.
This Center forbids the documents from being repurposed,
duplicated or altered without approval by this Center.
This Center has made the documents comprehensive but no
guarantee is made as to accuracy or safety.
Weekly Oil Market Review
In an interim report compiled in May 2004 by a petroleum
products market trend study panel sponsored by the
Petroleum Distribution and Retail Division of the Natural
Resources and Fuel Department at the Agency for Natural
Resources and Energy, the panel stated, “We hope that the
Japanese oil industry will solidify its market and price-finding
functions and that the oil industry as a mainstay industry in
Japan will further enhance its rationality and vitality over a
medium term as industry people deepen their understanding
of the need for rational price recognition based on market
and price-finding functions to be established in the oil
industry and for business decisions based on recognition
under the principle of self-responsibility.”
In response to the report, this Center has published the
Weekly Oil Market Review as a tool for oil-related people,
business administrators (particularly service station
managers) and ordinary consumers to accurately understand
crude oil and petroleum products supply and demand and
price trends, in cooperation with relevant organizations such
as the Petroleum Association of Japan and the Zensekiren
(Japan’s Dealers Association) since May 2005.
Sources of data provided in this report
① [Crude oil and petroleum products supply and demand]
(weekly PAJ report)
Data in weekly statistics on crude oil and petroleum product
supply by the Petroleum Association of Japan are calculated
in terms of 1,000 kiloliters. Shipments are estimated by this
Center.
② [Crude oil and futures prices] (WTI crude and Middle
Eastern crude)
For the WTI crude, the front-month WTI crude futures
contract’s daily closing price on the New York Mercantile
Exchange (NYMEX) is adopted.
For the Middle Eastern crude, the front-month Middle
Eastern crude futures contract’s closing price on the Tokyo
Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) is adopted. ＊”Secondmonth (next-month) contract”
Underlying the Middle Eastern crude price is the average
price for the Dubai and Oman crude oil. The telegraphic
transfer middle rate (TTM) released by the Bank of TokyoMitsubishi UFJ is adopted as the foreign exchange rate.
The crude oil import CIF price is a dollar-denominated
reference price estimated by the PAJ based on the average
crude oil price (on a 10-day basis) in the Ministry of Finance
trade statistics.
③[Motouri wholesale prices of petroleum products in Japan]
Motouri wholesale prices are prices for transactions between
Motouri petroleum products wholesalers (primary wholesalers)
and their affiliates (secondary wholesalers).
Motouri companies modified their new pricing system in
April 2010 to decide specific policies in comprehensive
consideration of crude oil and petroleum products market
prices, each other’s prices and other data. In June 2014,
they modified the system further to give greater priority to
crude oil cost.
④ [Gyoten spot prices of petroleum products in Japan]
(RIM gyoten)
Onshore cargo spot prices are the average onshore lorry
rack prices for the four districts of Tokyo, Kawasaki,
Chukyo and Hanshin in the Lorry Rack Report of RIM
Intelligence Co.
⑤ [Futures prices of petroleum products in Japan]
(TOCOM)
Front-month petroleum products futures contracts’ daily
closing prices for TOCOM Tokyo Bay and Chubu are
adopted.
TOCOM Tokyo Bay prices are the average offshore barge
prices for the Keihin district. TOCOM Chubu prices are the
average lorry rack prices in the Chubu district.
⑥ [Retail prices of petroleum products in Japan] (Weekly
trend survey)
Average cash retail prices at some 2,000 service stations
subject to a weekly nationwide survey are adopted (as
released by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy).
The survey covers prices on Monday and is released at
14:00 on Wednesday (available on the website of the
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy).
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