SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
Final
Cintra Concesiones de Infraestructuras de Transporte, S.A.
Zachry American Infrastructure
August 2006
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
Prepared for
Cintra Concesiones de Infraestructuras de
Transporte, S.A.
Zachry American Infrastructure
Prepared by
Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd
Level 9, 8 Exh bition Street, Melbourne VIC 3000, Australia
T +61 3 9653 1234 F +61 3 9654 7117 www.maunsell.com
ABN 20 093 846 925
August 2006
300 242 05
© Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd 2005
The information contained in this report produced by Maunsell Australia Pty Limited is solely for the use of the
Client identified on the cover to assist in the preparation of traffic and revenue forecasts for the SH130 Segments
5 and 6. Maunsell Australia Pty Limited undertakes no duty to nor accepts any respons bility to any other party
who may rely upon such information unless such party is a third party equity participant agreed by Maunsell in
writing as having reliance on such information.
Maunsell Australia Pty Limited has devoted normal professional efforts compatible with the time and budget
available to this assignment for the Client. Maunsell’s findings represent its best judgments within the time and
budget context of its commission and utilising the information available to it at the time.
Anyone relying on information contained in this document shall accept full respons bility and shall hold harmless
Maunsell Australia Pty Limited for the impacts on the traffic forecasts or the earnings from the SH130 Segments 5
and 6 arising from changes in "external" factors such as changes in government policy, the pricing of fuels, road
pricing generally, alternate modes of transport or construction of other means of transport, the behaviour of
competitors or changes in the owner's policy affecting the operation of the project.
No section or element of this document produced by Maunsell may be removed from this document, reproduced,
electronically stored or transmitted in any form by parties other than those for whom the document has been
prepared without the written permission of Maunsell Australia Pty Limited.
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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Revision C August 2006
Quality Information
Document
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
Ref
300 242 05
Date
August 2006
Prepared by
Sylvia Tesche and Ashley Yelds
Reviewed by
Peter Bow
Revision History
Authorised
Revision
Date
Details
A
01/07/2005
Final Report
B
18/07/2005
Final Report
C
15/09/2005
Final Report
D
11/08/2005
Revised Final Report
Revision
Name/Position
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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Revision C August 2006
Ashley Yelds Associate
Director
Ashley Yelds Associate
Director
Ashley Yelds Associate
Director
Sylvia TeschePrincipal
Economist
Signature
Original
Signed
Original
Signed
Original
Signed
Original
Signed
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
1.0
Introduction
1.1
The Project
1.2
Our Experience
1.3
The Report
2.0
Methodology
2.1
Traffic Data Review
2.2
Socio-Economic Data Review
2.3
Traffic Modelling
2.4
Assumptions
2.5
Forecasts
2.6
ETC Tolling System Adjustment
2.7
Sensibility
3.0
Project Background
3.1
The SH130 within the Trans-Texas Corridor
3.1.1
Segments One to Four
3.1.2
Segments Five and Six
3.2
Tolling Scheme
3.2.1
Toll Plazas
3.2.2
Future Permissible Toll Changes
3.3
The Surrounding Road Network
3.3.1
IH 35
3.3.2
IH 10
3.3.3
Other Proposed Toll Roads
3.4
Proposed Network Changes
4.0
Traffic Review
4.1
Corridor Traffic
4.1.1
North-South Routes
4.1.2
East-West Routes
4.2
Traffic Composition
4.2.1
Truck Traffic Vs AADT
4.2.2
Daily and Hourly Trends
4.2.3
Seasonal Trends
4.2.4
Annualisation Factors
4.3
Travel Times
5.0
Socio-economic Review
5.1
Regional Overview
5.2
Population
5.2.1
Introduction
5.2.2
Data Sources
5.2.3
Historical and Forecast Population Growth
5.3
Economic and Employment Forecasts
5.3.1
Employment
5.3.2
Population and Employment Forecast Review
5.3.3
Economic Growth
5.3.4
Income and Purchasing Power
5.4
Austin
5.5
San Antonio
5.6
San Marcos
5.7
Special Generators
5.7.1
Airports
5.7.2
Military Bases
5.7.3
Base Realignment and Closure 2005
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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5.8
Trade and Freight Movements
5.8.1
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
5.8.2
Mode Choice
5.8.3
Strategic Freight Network
5.8.4
Maquiladoras
5.9
Competing Modes
6.0
Traffic Modelling
6.1
Base Demand
6.2
Development of Truck Trip Tables
6.2.1
Base Year Truck Trip Table
6.2.2
Validation to Journey to Work
6.2.3
Validation to Traffic Counts
6.2.4
Validation to Travel Times
6.3
Future Demand
6.3.1
Future Year Trip Ends
6.3.2
Future Truck Table Development
6.4
Network
6.4.1
Capacity and Speed Review
6.5
Elasticity
6.6
Ramp Up
6.7
Long Term Growth
6.8
Value of Time
6.9
Toll Diversion Methodology
6.10
Toll Model Parameters
6.11
Tolling System
7.0
Traffic and Revenue Results
7.1
Summary of Assumptions
7.2
Traffic Forecast
7.2.1
Base Case GSP 70mph
7.2.2
Base Case GSP 80mph
7.2.3
Base Case GSP 85mph
8.0
Sensibility Checks
8.1
Traffic Growth Rate
8.2
Traffic Capture Rate
8.3
Capacity Review
8.4
Elasticity
8.5
Perceived Tolls
Appendix A
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d
List of Tables
Table 1-1 Summary of Results – Base Case GSP 70
ii
Table 1-2 Summary of Results – Base Case GSP 80
iii
Table 1-3 Summary of Results - Base Case GSP 85
iii
Table 1-4 Traffic, Population and Employment Growth Comparison from 2012 to 2025 iv
Table 3-1 Toll Rates at each of the plazas (January 2006 prices rounded to nearest tenth
of a cent)
4
Table 3-2 2008 Road Upgrades
4
Table 3-3 2015 Road Upgrades
4
Table 3-4 2025 Road Upgrades
4
Table 4-1 AADT for “Northern” Screenline (1)
4
Table 4-2: AADT for “Central” Screenline (2)
4
Table 4-3 AADT for “Southern” Screenline (3)
4
Table 4-4 AADT for “San Antonio” Screenline (4)
4
Table 4-5 AADT for “Western” Screenline (5)
4
Table 4-6 AADT for “Eastern” Screenline (6)
4
Table 4-7 Proportion of Truck Traffic in Corridor
4
Table 4-8 Adopted Annualisation Factors
4
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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Table 4-9 Travel Time Statistics (Minutes)
Table 5-1 Population Forecasts
Table 5-2 Employment Figures and Growth Rates
Table 5-3 2005 to 2025 US GDP and Texas GSP Growth
Table 5-4 Long Term Real GSP Forecast
Table 5-5 Major Employers in the Austin Area
Table 5-6 Key Statistics of Austin-Bergstrom International Airport
Table 6-1 Calibration – Screenline Results
Table 6-2 Validation to Travel Time Data (minutes)
Table 6-3 Total Trip End, Population and Employment Growth Comparison from 2008 to
2025
Table 6-4 Military Bases Change in Personal
Table 6-5 Truck Compound Growth Rates
Table 6-6 Adopted Daily Lane Capacities
Table 6-7 Elasticities observed on toll roads in Houston
Table 6-8 Ramp-up observed on toll roads in Houston
Table 6-9 Real Toll Rates per Mile (January 2006 prices)
Table 7-1 Summary of Assumptions
Table 7-2 Summary of Results – GSP 70 Case
Table 7-3 Summary of Results – GSP 80 Case
Table 7-4 Summary of Results - GSP 85 Case
Table 8-1 Traffic, Population and Employment Growth Comparison from 2008 to 2025
Table 8-2 Corridor Market Share of IH35 versus SH130 (GSP 70 Case)
Table 8-3 Review of Capacity in 2025
Table 8-4 Elasticity Review
Table 8-5 Perceived Real Toll Rates per Mile (January 2005 prices)
List of Figures
Figure 1 Travel Time Summary
Figure 3.1 Route 35
Figure 3.2 SH130 within the TTC-35 Corridor
Figure 3.3 Proposed SH130 Corridor
Figure 3.4 SH130 – Segment Five Toll Plazas and Interchanges
Figure 3.5 SH130 – Segment Six Toll Plazas and Interchanges
Figure 3.6 IH35 south of Riverside Drive in PM Peak
Figure 3.7 2003 to 2008 Network Improvements
Figure 3.8 2008 to 2015 Network Improvements
Figure 3.9 2015 to 2025 Road Network Improvements
Figure 4.1 Screenline Locations
Figure 4.2 Daily Traffic Profile
Figure 4.3 2003 Daily Traffic Profiles for IH35 – San Leanna
Figure 4.4 2003 Daily Traffic Profiles for IH35 – Town Lake
Figure 4.5 2003 Daily Traffic Profiles for IH10 – Seguin
Figure 4.6 Seasonal Variation on IH35 – San Leanna
Figure 4.7 Seasonal Variation on IH35 – Town Lake
Figure 4.8 Seasonal Variation on IH10 – Seguin
Figure 4.9 Annualisation Factors for Permanent Count Sites
Figure 4.10 Travel Time Routes
Figure 4.11 Southbound Travel Time IH35 (minutes)
Figure 4.12 Northbound Travel Time IH35 (minutes)
Figure 5.1 Study Area Counties
Figure 5.2 Historical and Forecast Population Growth
Figure 5.3 Non-Farm Employment Growth and the Unemployment Rate
Figure 5.4 Composition of Texas Non-Farm Workforce by Industry (2003)
Figure 5.5 Texas and US Real Growth in Gross Product
Figure 5.6 Composition of 2003 Texas GSP
Figure 5.7 Per Capita Income versus CPI (Indexed to 1980)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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Figure 5.8 Purchasing Power versus US GDP Growth
Figure 5.9 Estimated Average Annual Daily Truck Traffic, 1998
Figure 5.10 Estimated Average Annual Daily Truck Traffic, 2020
Figure 6.1 Observed Counts versus Modelled Counts
Figure 6.2 2008 Freeway/Tollway (Mainline) Lanes
Figure 6.3 2015 Freeway/Tollway (Mainline) Lanes
Figure 6.4 2025 Freeway (Mainline) Lanes
Figure 6.5 Ramp-up profile of toll roads in Australia and Canada
Figure 6.6 Toll Diversion Relationship
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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The initial tolling scenario is
cents/mile for cars and
which three growth scenarios were tested:
ents per mile for truck, for
•
Tolls per mile growing with nominal Gross State Product per capita with a
road design speed of 70 mph.
•
Tolls per mile growing with nominal Gross State Product per capita with a
road design speed of 80 mph.
•
Tolls per mile growing with nominal Gross State Product per capita with a
road design speed of 85 mph.
Traffic volumes and revenue were forecast for Segments 5 and 6 of the SH130 from 2012
to 2062
The following three tables summarise the traffic and revenue forecasts for the
three tolling scenarios.
Table 1-1 Summary of Results – Base Case GSP 70
Year
AADT
('000s)
Total
Segment 5
Yearly Revenue (2006
Millions)
Cars
Trucks
Total
2012 (b) (4)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2035
2045
2055
2060
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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AADT
('000s)
Total
Segment 6
Yearly Revenue (2006
Millions)
Cars
Trucks
Total
Table 1-2 Summary of Results – Base Case GSP 80
Year
AADT
('000s)
Total
Segment 5
Yearly Revenue (2006
Millions)
Cars
Trucks
Total
AADT
('000s)
Total
Segment 6
Yearly Revenue (2006
Millions)
Cars
Trucks
Total
AADT
('000s)
Total
Segment 6
Yearly Revenue (2006
Millions)
Cars
Trucks
Total
2012 (b) (4)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2035
2045
2055
2060
Table 1-3 Summary of Results - Base Case GSP 85
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2035
2045
2055
2060
AADT
('000s)
Total
Segment 5
Yearly Revenue (2006
Millions)
Cars
Trucks
Total
(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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1.0 Introduction
1.1
The Project
This traffic and revenue forecast for the SH130 have been prepared for Concesiones de
Infraestructuras de Transporte, S.A. (“Cintra”) and Zachry American Infrastructures as an
input to their bid to build, own and operate Segments 5 and 6 of the road. The 90 mile
long SH130 connects the IH35 near Georgetown to the IH10 at Seguin. Of this, Segments
5 and 6 are the southern most segments of road covering almost 40 miles.
This is the first project under the Trans Texas Corridor-35 (TTC-35) awarded by the Texas
Department of Transportation in December 2004:
“To address the state’s need for immediate congestion relief on Interstate 35,
the first phase of Cintra’s proposal calls for developing $6 billion in new
roadways roughly paralleling the interstate by 2010. This includes building
316 miles of new four-lane divided highway from Dallas to San Antonio.”
Both the reason for and the success of the SH130 is in alleviating traffic in the Austin area
and serve as a bypass route for long distance trips. Austin is one of the most severely
congested mid-sized cities in the United States.
.
This problem will only get worse as the population in the area is expected to grow by 40%
over the next 25 years. Therefore, the SH130 is design not only to solve the congestion
problems of today, but well into the future.
1.2
Our Experience
Maunsell Australia Pty Ltd is a wholly owned subsidiary of AECOM Technology
Corporation with its headquarters in Los Angeles. The firm has a long history of advising
toll road owners, operators and lenders; over US$6 billion of investments in toll roads
worldwide have been financed on the back of Maunsell’s revenue forecasting in Australia,
Europe, Asia and USA.
Maunsell prepared the traffic and revenue forecasts for the following major toll road
investments:
•
Cintra and Macquarie Infrastructure Group’s (“MIG”) acquisition of Chicago
Skyway
•
Macquarie Infrastructure Group’s acquisition of a 40% stake in Cintra (owner
of toll roads in Europe, South America and Canada) including annual
updating of the traffic and revenue forecasts for the 407ETR in Toronto on
behalf of MIG and Cintra
•
Macquarie Infrastructure Group’s acquisition of the SR125 Concession in
San Diego California
•
Macquarie Global Infrastructure Fund’s acquisition of the Detroit Windsor
Tunnel.
•
The US$1 billion Melbourne City Link
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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•
The US$1 billion Western Sydney Orbital
•
Birmingham Northern Relief Road, UK – advice to the concessionaire
•
Storebaelt Bridge, Denmark – refinancing advice
•
Oresund Fixed Link between Denmark and Sweden – forecasts for
revaluation of debt guarantee
•
Brazilian Toll Roads – review of forecasts for 5 toll road concessions in
Brazil, as part of Due Diligence review
•
M2 Motorway, Sydney – advice on feasibility of urban toll road
•
M5 Motorway, Sydney – Due Diligence advice on future toll revenue
•
Logan Motorway, Brisbane – forecasting
•
Cross City Tunnel, Sydney – forecast for bidder
•
Hakone Toll Road, Japan – Due Diligence Review
Our experience in toll road forecasting spans 20 years but our principal qualification is our
track record of forecasting accuracy, as shown by the following forecast examples.
Forecast
Toll Road
Measure
M2,
Sydney
Average daily
traffic at main
toll plaza
forecast in
1990/91
1998
2001
Melbourne
City Link
Highway
407,
Canada
Storebaelt
Bridge,
Sweden
Average daily
traffic
transactions for
whole route
(West and East
Link) forecast
in 1994 for
2003 forecast.
Annual
revenue
forecast in
2000 for 2001
Average daily
traffic forecast
in 1999 for
2001
Forecast
Actual
Variance
50.6
51.9
51.2
57.5
1.2%
9.8%
Adjusted
value:
635,000
628,000
-1.1%
C$244.6m
C$244.1m
-0.2%
Revenue is based on VKT (at
11.5c/km for cars).
21,211
21,210
0.0%
Missed by 1 vehicle!
662,000
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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Rationale
Growth rate has exceeded model
estimates – data shows growth in M2
market share and probably includes
induced demand
Value adjusted for affects of:
•
toll changes
•
construction of new competing
route
•
delayed development of
Docklands area
1.3
The Report
This traffic and revenue forecast report includes the following structure:
Chapter 2 Methodology
Provides an outline of the methodology used to undertake the traffic and revenue forecasts
Chapter 3 Project Background
Provides an overview of the SH130 focusing on Segments 5-6, its tolling regime, the road
network and future roadworks.
Chapter 4 Traffic Data Review
Includes an analysis of traffic on the IH35, of travel patterns including screenline analyses,
and of travel times.
Chapter 5 Socio-Economic Review
Includes the data sourced from
and other indicators.
Chapter 6 Traffic Modelling
Provides the details from the traffic modelling inputs and methodology including
.
Chapter 7 Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
Provides the resultant traffic and revenue forecasts from the traffic modelling.
Chapter 8 Sensibility Checks
Provides an analysis of the traffic and revenue forecasts, and the key assumptions to
determine the appropriateness of the forecasts.
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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2.0 Methodology
The methodology used to undertake the traffic and revenue forecast was designed to meet
the Sponsors requirements to produce a traffic and revenue case. The work was
conducted over a 14-week period from March to June 2005 using historical and model
data. The methodology includes the following tasks:
•
Traffic Data Review
•
Socio-Economic Data Review
•
Traffic Modelling
•
Developing Assumptions
•
Forecasting
Further details on each of these are provided in the following sections.
2.1
Traffic Data Review
.
The review methodology was as follows:
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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.
2.2
Socio-Economic Data Review
The analysis was applied as follows:
2.3
Traffic Modelling
•
.
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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•
•
.
•
•
.
2.4
Assumptions
•
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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•
.
2.5
Forecasts
2.6
ETC Tolling System Adjustment
2.7
Sensibility
.
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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3.0 Project Background
3.1
The SH130 within the Trans-Texas
Corridor
“The Trans-Texas Corridor (TTC) is a proposed multi-use, statewide network of
transportation routes in Texas that will incorporate existing and new highways,
railways and utility right-of-ways.
As envisioned, each route will include:
•
separate lanes for passenger vehicles and large trucks
•
freight railways
•
high-speed commuter railways
•
infrastructure for utilities including water lines, oil and gas pipelines, and
transmission lines for electricity, broadband and other telecommunications
services”
The proposed SH130 is one part of the grander vision of the TransTexas Corridor-35
(Figure 3.2), traversing Texas from Oklahoma to the Gulf of Mexico. Its purpose is to
relieve congestion and generally improve transportation facilities and accessibility in the
San Antonio to Austin corridor. The major interstate that will benefit from relieved
congestion is the IH35, which is highlighted below in Figure 3.1. As the IH35 is a major
route through central USA, the role that the SH130 plays in alleviating congestion will
become increasingly important; assisting the efficient flow of freight resulting from the
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
Figure 3.1 Route 35
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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Figure 3.2 SH130 within the TTC-35 Corridor
The SH130 consists of six individual segments, of which Cintra are proposing to construct,
own and operate segments five and six. Figure 3.3 highlights each of the six segments
making up the SH130 route.
3.1.1
Segments One to Four
In the north, the SH130 begins intersects the IH35 about five miles north of Georgetown in
Williamson County. It heads south, travelling in a south-easterly direction towards Hutto,
then in a more southerly direction towards Manor finishing just south of the US290. This is
the segments referred to as one and two; which are designed to provide two lanes in each
direction, with the potential in the future to accommodate multi-modal lanes in the median.
In segments one and two, full diamond interchanges are to be provided at IH35, US290,
SH45 and SH195, as well as a three level diamond at US79.
Segments three and four start just south of the US290, generally travelling in a southwesterly direction towards the Colorado River and then the US183 at Mustang Ridge. The
ultimate design is for three lanes in each direction, however in the interim, only two lanes in
each direction will be provided.
Segments One to Four are expected to open late 2007, with a toll rate of $1.50 for cars at
each of the four mainline plazas and $.50 at each of the proposed tolled ramps.
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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3.1.2
Segments Five and Six
Segments five and six, which are the prime focus of this report, begin at Mustang Ridge
and generally follow the alignment of the US183 to (two miles west of) Lockhart in Caldwell
County. South of Lockhart the SH130 runs south-west running parallel to the State
Highway 20 alignment, eventually joining the IH10 west of Seguin.
Like segments one to four, the SH130 will initially be build with two lanes in each direction,
ultimately to be upgraded to three lanes. Frontage roads will be provided along Segment
Five as it runs along the US183 to Lockhart. The median will also have the potential to
accommodate multi-modal lanes.
Figure 3.4 and Figure 3.5 show the location of interchanges and toll plazas for Segments
Five and Six, respectively. Segment Five has major interchanges with the SH121 and
US183, as well as five other interchanges with smaller roads.
Along Segment Six, the SH130 has major interchanges with SH145, SH80, US90 and the
IH10. There are five other interchanges with smaller ‘Farm-to-Market’ and ‘Country’ roads.
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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Figure 3.3 Proposed SH130 Corridor
To Dallas
Georgetown
Austin
San Marcos
To San Antonio
Mexico
Seguin
Source: www.texastollways.com/tta
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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3.3
The Surrounding Road Network
3.3.1
IH 35
Interstate Highway 35 (IH35) is the main north-south route through Texas, providing
important access from the Mexican border to the entire mid-west region. Within the current
SH130 study corridor, it is the only significant link between Austin and San Antonio and as
such, will be the main (untolled) alternative to the SH130.
In the centre of Austin, the IH35 has four lanes in each direction. Between Austin and San
Antonio, the IH35 is generally three lanes in each direction, with frontage roads. There are
major interchange with the US183 and Loop410, as well as many interchanges along the
route with smaller roads.
The IH35 currently has two purposes. It acts as a commuter road near Austin and is also a
carrier for long distance trips, primarily from San Antonio and the Mexican Border to
northern Texas and beyond. Severe congestion normally occurs in the section close to
Austin CBD, particularly at peak periods.
Figure 3.6 IH35 south of Riverside Drive in PM Peak
3.3.2
IH 10
The Interstate Highway 10 (IH10) is an east-west route passing through the southern half
of Texas. It will provide an important link from the SH130 to San Antonio and to the IH35.
In the section between Loop410 and the SH130, it generally has two lanes in each
direction, with frontage roads.
The IH10 is primarily a long distance route, carrying a large number of trucks as well as
recreational and coastal trips.
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
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3.3.3
Other Proposed Toll Roads
In 1991, a federally funded study investigated a network of new roads for the Austin area.
The outcome of this study was the Central Texas Turnpike System, of which the SH130
was only one component. The other toll roads to be recommended by the study are
described below and shown in Figure 3.3.
US 183
The US183 will be approximately 12 miles long running parallel to the east of the existing
US183 from north of the Leander to Lakeline Boulevard. The project is being developed
by the Central Texas Regional Mobility Authority (CTMRA), a newly created local authority
that can build, operate, and maintain toll roads. It is expected to be open by 2011.
A tolling rate of
cents/mile was assumed for the model.
SH45 North
SH45 North will be approximately 13 miles long, extending from the west of US183 to
SH130. It will be a four to six-lane divided roadway, with major interchanges at US183,
Loop 1, IH35 and SH130. The segment between Loop1 and SH130 will be open to traffic
in September 2007 and the segment from Loop 1 interchange to US183 will be open in
December 2007.
A tolling rate of
cents/mile was assumed for the model.
SH 45 South-East
SH45SE is a 7.4 mile direct link between IH35 and SH130 at the junction with US183 (in
the Mustang Ridge area). The facility will initially be a four-lane roadway with limited
access, with future possible expansion to six lanes. Interchange locations will be at the
IH35 frontage roads, N. Turnersville, Wright Road, FM 1625, and at the SH 130/US 183
interchange.
A tolling rate of
cents/mile was assumed for the model.
Loop 1
The Loop 1 extension will be approximately three miles long from Parmer Lane to SH45
North. It will be a six-lane divided roadway with limited frontage roads and will be open to
traffic by January 2007.
A tolling rate of
3.4
cents/mile was assumed for the model.
Proposed Network Changes
A schedule of known and predicted future year road works have been summarised in the
tables below based upon the road network improvements set out in the Bexar Metropolitan
Transport Plan and the CAMPO Mobility 2030 Plan. Depending on project timing, the
upgrades to roads feeding into or competing with the SH130 have been included in the
2008, 2015 and 2025 networks.
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Table 3-3 2015 Road Upgrades
1
Road/Facility
Location
Previously
US183A Turnpike
Nth of CR276 –
Lakeline Blvd
-
2
3
5
6
6 lane freeway
SH45 (N) – LOOP 1
6 lane freeway
IH35 – US290 (E)
US290 (E) – 7th
Street (E)
Colorado RiverSR71 (E)
6 lane freeway
4 lane major arterial
6 lane tollway
6 Lane Major Arterial
8 lane tollway
4 lane major arterial
6 lane major
arterial divided
SH71 – FM812
8
US183 – FM973
9
10
US290 (W)
FM973 – County Line
Road
FM1826 – William
Cannon Dr
11
FM1826-Fitzhugh Rd
12
IH35 – US183
US183 – Presidential
Bvld
Presidential Bvld –
SH130
Riverside Dr – SR 45
(S)
13
SH71
14
15
IH35
6 lane toll road
Lakeline Blvd – SH45
(N)
7
US290 (E)
Condition
6 lane freeway
and 2
Managed
Lanes (one in
each direction)
6 lane freeway
and 1
Reversible
Managed Lane
6 lane tollway
US183
4
Upgraded
4 lane divided major
arterial
4 lane divided major
arterial
4 lane undivided
major arterial
4 lane undivided
major arterial
6 lane freeway
6 lane divided major
arterial
6 lane divided major
arterial
6 lane freeway
6 lane tollway
6 lane freeway
6 lane tollway
6 lane freeway
6 lane tollway
6 lane tollway
6 lane freeway
8 lane freeway
Table 3-4 2025 Road Upgrades
1
2
3
4
Location
Previously
SH71 (W)
1.1 Miles West of
SR290W – SR290W
Loop 360
US183-US290
SH45 (S) Turnpike
Loop 1 – IH35
Loop 410 –
Loop1604
Loop 410 (N) – Loop
410 (S)
4 lane divided major
arterial
4 lane divided major
arterial
-
4 lane toll road
4 lane freeway
6 lane freeway
6 lane freeway
8 lane freeway
8/10 lane freeway
8/10 lane
freeway + 6
new toll
mainlines
IH10 (E)
5
6
Upgraded
Condition
Road/Facility
IH35
Loop 410 (N) – Loop
1604
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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6 lane freeway
4 lane toll road
4.1.1
(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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(b) (4)
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(b) (4)
4.3
Travel Times
In
2005, a series of travel time surveys were undertaken by Cintra. The travel time
surveys were conducted on the following routes:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
It has been assumed that these
surveys would be representative of typical weekday
conditions. Around
travel time surveys were undertaken on each route throughout
the day, and were averaged to produce the results.
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5.0 Socio-economic Review
5.1
Regional Overview
The SH130 primarily falls within the jurisdiction of two Metropolitan Planning
Organisations; Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organisation (CAMPO) and the Alamo
Metropolitan Planning Organisation. These MPO’s include the following counties:
•
Bexar (Alamo)
•
Comal (Alamo)
•
Guadalupe (Alamo)
•
Hays (CAMPO)
•
Travis (CAMPO)
•
Williamson (CAMPO)
Additionally, Bastrop and Caldwell counties were also considered within the study area
because of their proximity to the route.
Figure 5.1 Study Area Counties
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
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The review and incorporation of these various data sources is discussed in Section 5.3.2.
5.3
5.3.1
Figure 5.3
5
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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5.3.2
.
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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.
5.7.3
5.8
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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Figure 5.9
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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Figure 5.10
16
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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).
5.9
(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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.
(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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(b) (4)
6.2.4
Table 6-2
.
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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6.8
(b) (4)
.
o
(b) (4)
.
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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(b) (4)
6.10
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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7.0 Traffic and Revenue Results
7.1
Summary of Assumptions
A summary of the key assumptions used to develop the “GSP” cases is provided in Table
7-1.
Table 7-1 Summary of Assumptions
(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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7.2
Traffic Forecast
7.2.1
Base Case GSP 70mph
Table 7-2 shows the average annual daily traffic (in thousands) and the yearly revenue (in
millions) for Segments 5 and 6 of the SH130 for the GSP 70 toll increase case. The full
tables of results are presented in Appendix A.
From the table below it can be seen that:
•
(b) (4)
Table 7-2 Summary of Results – GSP 70 Case
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2035
2045
2055
2060
AADT
('000s)
Total
Segment 5
Yearly Revenue (2006
Millions)
Cars
Trucks
Total
(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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AADT
('000s)
Total
Segment 6
Yearly Revenue (2006
Millions)
Cars
Trucks
Total
7.2.2
Base Case GSP 80mph
Table 7-3 shows the average annual daily traffic (in thousands) and the yearly revenue (in
millions) for Segments 5 and 6 of the SH130 for the GSP 80 toll increase case.
From the table below it can be seen that:
•
(b) (4)
Table 7-3 Summary of Results – GSP 80 Case
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2035
2045
2055
2060
AADT
('000s)
Total
Segment 5
Yearly Revenue (2006
Millions)
Cars
Trucks
Total
(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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AADT
('000s)
Total
Segment 6
Yearly Revenue (2006
Millions)
Cars
Trucks
Total
7.2.3
Base Case GSP 85mph
Table 7-6 shows the average annual daily traffic (in thousands) and the yearly revenue (in
$2006 millions) for Segments 5 and 6 of the SH130 for the GSP 85 toll increase case.
From the table below it can be seen that:
•
(b) (4)
Table 7-4 Summary of Results - GSP 85 Case
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2035
2045
2055
2060
AADT
('000s)
Total
Segment 5
Yearly Revenue (2006
Millions)
Cars
Trucks
Total
(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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AADT
('000s)
Total
Segment 6
Yearly Revenue (2006
Millions)
Cars
Trucks
Total
Appendix A
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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Results for Base Case GSP 70
Table A.1 AADT (Thousands) –Base Case GSP 70
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
AADT Cars
(b) (4)
Segment 5
AADT Trucks
AADT Total
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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AADT Cars
Segment 6
AADT Trucks
AADT Total
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
(b) (4)
Table A.2 Yearly Revenue (Millions) – Bas Case GSP 70
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
Revenue
- Cars
Segment 5
Revenue Revenue
- Trucks
- Total
(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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Revenue
- Cars
Segment 6
Revenue
Revenue
- Trucks
- Total
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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Results for Base Case GSP 80
Table A.3 AADT (Thousands) – Base Case GSP 80
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
AADT Cars
(b) (4)
Segment 5
AADT Trucks
AADT Total
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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AADT Cars
Segment 6
AADT Trucks
AADT Total
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
(b) (4)
Table A.4 Yearly Revenue (Millions) – Base Case GSP 80
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
Revenue
- Cars
Segment 5
Revenue Revenue
- Trucks
- Total
(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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Revenue
- Cars
Segment 6
Revenue
Revenue
- Trucks
- Total
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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Results for Base Case GSP 85
Table A.5 AADT (Thousands) – Base Case GSP 85
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
AADT Cars
Segment 5
AADT Trucks
AADT Total
(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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AADT Cars
Segment 6
AADT Trucks
AADT Total
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
(b) (4)
Table A.6 Yearly Revenue (Millions) – Base Case GSP 85
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
Revenue
- Cars
(b) (4)
Segment 5
Revenue
- Trucks
Revenue
- Total
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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Revenue
- Cars
Segment 6
Revenue
- Trucks
Revenue
- Total
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
(b) (4)
SH130 Segments 5 and 6
Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
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