The Impact of Child Labor on Children’s Educational Performance: Evidence from Rural Vietnam Abstract: In 1998, nearly one-third of Vietnamese children engaged in non-housework labor supply, 95% of these working children residing in rural areas. This paper investigates the impact of child labour on children’s educational outcomes in rural Vietnam using the 1998-Vietnam Living Standard Survey. The paper finds that child labor lowers children’s academic performance and the negative impact is bigger for girls. JEL classifications: J82; I21; N35; C30 Keywords: Child labor; children’s educational performance; Vietnam; instrumental variable; joint Tobit-ordered probit model Published in Journal of Asian Economics 36 (2015): 1-13 1 1. Introduction Child labor has long been a critical issue. Over the last decades, child labor in developing countries has been of particular concern. This is not only because child labor is a moral issue but also because of its significant impact on children’s development, a decisive factor for a country’s future growth and development (Glewwe and Jacoby, 1994; Edmonds, 2007). Vietnam is an interesting country to study child labor, for several reasons. First, Vietnam is a developing country in Asia, a region harboring the largest number of child workers.1 In 1998, nearly one-third of Vietnamese children aged 6 to 15 years (more than 5 million) were engaged in non-housework labor supply. Second, Vietnam underwent more than 30 years of war (1945-1975) and had a long period as a centrally planned economy with stagnant economic performance. By the end of the period – in 1985 – Vietnam was one of the poorest countries in the world. The country’s renovation, which started in 1986, has made significant progress in poverty reduction.2 However, in 1998 around 45% of households in rural Vietnam still lived under the poverty line (World Bank, 1999) and poverty often compels parents to send their children to work for the family to survive. Third, until the 1990s about 80% of the country’s population still lived in rural areas and two-thirds of laborers worked in agriculture, mostly self-employed on household farms (Dollar and Glewwe, 1998). These characteristic provide various opportunities and pressures for children to engage in child labor within the household. 1 According to the International Labour Organization (2002), there were 211 million children aged 5 to 14 at work in economic activity in the world in 2000. This accounted for nearly 20 percent of all children in this age group. The Asia-Pacific region had the largest number of child workers (127.3 million), followed by Sub-Saharan Africa (48 million) then Latin America and the Caribbean (17.4 million). In relative terms, Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest proportion of working children (29%) followed by Asia and the Pacific (19%) then Latin America and the Caribbean (16%). 2 See Dutta (1995) and Plummer (1995) for a comprehensive picture of the Vietnamese economy in the initial years of its transition process. 2 Vietnam has made significant progress in promoting education over the last decades. Primary education became almost universal in 2000, which is a remarkable achievement compared with other developing countries with the same level of per capita income. Between 1991 and 1999, the number of lower secondary enrolments more than doubled, from 2.7 million to 5.8 million and the number of upper secondary enrolments tripled, from 0.7 million to 2 million. The enrolment rates in lower secondary education and upper secondary education were 74% and 49% in 2000, respectively (Vietnam’s Ministry of Education and Training, 2001; Asian Development Bank, 2003). Demand for education also increased substantially in the 1990s as the Vietnamese become richer (Glewwe and Jacoby, 2004) which reflects the fact that Vietnam is a society in which education is highly valued and respected. Despite its low income level, Vietnam had a relatively well educated population (Glewwe and Jacoby, 1998). Nowadays, education is placed as a top priority in the development strategy of the Vietnamese government in the course of the country’s industrialization and modernization.3 The share of education expenditure increased from 2.2% of GDP and 10% of the government budget in 1992 to 3.5% of GDP and 17% of the government budget in 1998 (World Bank, 2000). Given the importance of early childhood for children’s success in their later life (Becker and Tomes, 1986), understanding the impact of child labor on children’s outcomes is particularly important. To date, most studies on child labor in Vietnam have focused on investigating the evolution of child labor during the country’s transition period, or the impact of child labor on children’s health. Influential papers are Edmonds and Turk (2002), Edmonds (2005), Edmonds and Pavcnik (2005), O'Donnell et al. (2005) and Beegle et al. (2009). However, little is known about the consequences of child labor in Vietnam on children’s educational outcomes. To our knowledge, Beegle et al. (2009) is the only study which investigates the problem. Using panel data 3 See Chapter 3 – Article 35 of the National Constitution issued in 1992, the Education and Training Development Strategy to year 2010 issued in 2001 and the Education Law issued in 2005. 3 from the Vietnam Living Standard Surveys carried out in 1993 and 1998, the authors found that five years subsequent to the child labor experience, there were significantly negative impacts on children’s school enrolment and grade attainment. Even for a developed country such as Portugal, child labor is found to increase the student’s probability of repeating a grade (Goulart and Bedi, 2008). Using unusually rich information from the 1998-Vietnam Living Standard Survey (VLSS), this paper investigates the impact of child labor on children’s educational performance. In contrast to Beegle et al. (2009) we use a direct evaluation of students’ study results in class as an indicator for children’s educational performance, which is classified into one of four levels ranking from poor, average, good to excellent.4 In Vietnam, if a student gets a poor academic score, he or she will have to repeat the grade. Therefore this measure using the ranking of a student’s academic performance is broader than grade repetition, which is often used to study the impact of child labor on children’s educational outcome. Because there are unobserved factors that simultaneously affect child labor and a student’s academic achievement, leading to the endogeneity of child labor in the educational performance equation, we use the average wage of unskilled female workers within a commune as an instrument for child labor. We estimate a system of simultaneous tobit and ordered probit equations standing for the determinants of child labor and children’s educational performance, respectively. This estimation is different from previous studies on the impact of child labor on children’s educational performance which either estimate the two equations separately or use a biprobit or multinomial probit model to estimate the simultaneous determinants of child labor and 4 Children’s educational scores are ranked according to their mark. In each subject, a 10 point scale is applied with 10 being the highest and 0 being the lowest. A mark under 5 is classified as poor; a mark from 5 to under 6.5 is classified as average; a mark from 6.5 to under 8 is good and a mark from 8 to 10 is excellent. 4 children’s educational success, treating child labor as a binary outcome.5 Our estimation allows us to investigate child labor by total hours of child work including hours doing housework and nonhousework labor supply instead of using a dummy variable. Thus we measure the true workload that a child has to bear. The estimation results suggest that child labor has a negative impact on children’s academic performance. The negative impact is bigger for girls. Household economic conditions are one of the most important determinants of child labor and children’s educational performance. Both mother’s and father’s education have a strong impact on children’s academic performance. There is a bias against girls in the child work burden. Among school characteristics, teachers’ qualifications and school infrastructure, such as the presence of electricity, a library and a good blackboard are significant in enhancing students’ study results. The academic environment within a commune also has a significant impact on children’s educational performance. The remainder of the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 describes the data and sample. Section 3 presents an overview of child labor in Vietnam and children’s academic scores by activities. Section 4 provides the econometric framework and variable descriptions. Section 5 explains the estimation results. The conclusions are presented in the final section. 2. Data and sample We use data from the Vietnam Living Standard Survey (VLSS) undertaken in 1997/1998 by the Vietnamese General Statistics Office, with technical assistance from the World Bank. The 1998-VLSS is the most comprehensive wave of the VLSS. The survey provides information on both students’ academic performance in their previous grade and their labor activity. Specifically, the academic outcome takes one of four values: excellent, good, average or poor. Children’s labor 5 The child labour variable equals one if a child reports any positive hours of work and zero if a child does not work. 5 activity provides detailed information about total hours of housework and non-housework labor supply over the past 12 months. This characteristic makes our study possible.6 Besides the 1998 VLSS, there have been six other waves of the VLSS carried out in 1993, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010. Unfortunately, none of these waves provides information as suitable for our study purpose as the 1998 wave. For example, the wave in 1993 provides relatively detailed information on education and child work participation but does not have information on students’ academic achievement. The wave in 2006 provides information on the academic scores of students but does not have sufficient information on child labour in selfemployed agricultural activities. Other waves do not have information on either academic records or self-employed agricultural activities. The 1998 VLSS includes five sets of questionnaires relating to households, communities, schools, prices and clinics. The household questionnaire included 1,561 questions about individual and household demographics, education, health, labor activities, income, expenditure, credit and savings. The sample was 6,002 households in 194 communes of 61 provinces of Vietnam and was chosen to be nationally representative with sample weights attached. The community, school, price and clinic questionnaires included 737 questions and collected information about community, school and clinic characteristics, and price levels of basic commodities within the commune. These questionnaires were administered in 156 communes in all rural and semi-urban areas. We restrict our sample to rural Vietnam for several reasons. First, while 35 percent of children aged 6-15 years in rural areas engage in non-housework labor supply, the rate is only 6 percent in urban areas. About 95 percent of working children in Vietnam reside in rural areas. Second, while the information on community and school characteristics in the 1998-VLSS is 6 It is argued that children’s abilities accumulate over time. Current academic score reflects the study and work patterns of several previous years. Since we only have information about children’s working hours over the past 12 months, we assume that current work patterns are indicative of the past as well. 6 nationally representative for rural areas, this information was only collected for semi urban areas (small towns). Third, the sample of VLSS only includes the registered residence, so children of unregistered migrants and street children are omitted from the sample (O’Donnell and Rosati, 2005). While this omitted sample problem is significant in urban areas, it is not significant in rural areas because most children in rural Vietnam work with their family in household agricultural production. We further restrict our sample to school children aged 6 to 15 years. Six is the age when children start school in Vietnam and child labor for children under 15 years is of special concern to the International Labor Organization. In addition, the Vietnamese Labor Code prohibits the employment of children under the age of 15 years. There are 5,476 children in this group. Children aged 6 with no information on academic achievement were dropped from the sample, resulting in the loss of 160 observations. 3. Child labor in Vietnam and children’s academic score by activities 3.1 Child labor in Vietnam Table 1 breaks down the incidence of child work in Vietnam in 1998 by urban-rural. Of all rural children aged 6-15 years, 63 percent only studied, 22 percent combined both work and study, 11 percent worked only, and 4 percent reported neither work nor study. [Table 1 about here] Among working children in rural areas, the average daily hours of non-housework labor supply was 2.76 hours. Together with more than one hour spent doing housework, those children have to work up to four hours a day. Figure 1 further illustrates rural children’s labor force participation and average hours of non-housework labor supply by their ages. The Figure show that both children’s labor force participation and average hours of non-housework labor supply increase as they get older. 7 [Figure 1 about here] Given that children in Vietnam spend 4–5 hours per day on weekdays (Monday to Friday) studying in class, working may substantially constrain the time left for doing homework and selfstudying. Long working hours may tire children and reduce their ability to concentrate when studying. Thus working is expected to have a negative impact on children’s academic performance. 3.2 Children’s academic score by activities Table 2 breaks down rural children’s academic attainment by their working status. It can be seen that, while about 11 percent of children who only study obtain excellent results, the rate is only 5 percent among children who have to combine both work and study. While about 49 percent of children who only study get average results, the rate is 56 percent among children who work and study. Overall, the percentages of children who receive good and poor results are about the same in the two groups. [Table 2 about here] Simple descriptive statistics can only inform us about correlations between factors. We need a method that facilitates inferences about the true impact of child labor on children’s academic performance. Such an empirical strategy is described in the next section. 4. Empirical strategy 4.1. Variable descriptions When estimating the impact of child labor on students’ academic achievement, the main statistical issue is endogeneity. That is because of both unobserved heterogeneity and simultaneity. For example, a child with high innate ability can be a successful student despite work. Another example is that a parent’s preference for education also affects their decision on whether to send 8 their children to work or to school. Parents with high expectations for their children’s education will do more to help their children succeed at school, such as spending more time or money on their children’s private tutoring, helping them do their homework, buying more books or reading more stories for them to develop their literacy skills (Dang, 2007). In addition, household economics condition may affect both child labor and children’s academic performance. Because of poverty, parents have to send their children to work for the family to survive (Basu and Van, 1998; Edmonds, 2007). However children from poor households also tend to have less nutritious food, less favourable investments for their education and thus achieve lower study results. These factors, if not controlled for, could lead to biased and inconsistent estimates. To partly overcome the problem, we exploit the unusually rich information of the 1998 VLSS data set to include a set of variables observed at individual, household, school, commune and regional levels as explanatory variables. At the individual level, we include variables reflecting student’s age, age squared, sex and ethnicity. In Vietnam, children have to take the national exam in their last grade at each school level.7 During the years of their last grades, children tend to put more effort into studying and parents tend to create more favourable study conditions for their child, thus reducing the children’s workload. To capture these effects, we include a dummy variable indicating whether a child is in his or her last grade. We also include the standardized height-for-age z-scores to partly evaluate the impact of children’s nutritional status on their academic performance. The data design allows us to match a child with their parents and thus include mother’s and father’s years of schooling as additional explanatory variables. These variables are important in many ways. First, children from a family with better educated parents may inherit a better genetic 7 The current formal education in Vietnam consists of 12 years of basic education, including 5 years of primary education, 4 years of secondary education and 3 years of high school. Children in our sample – aged 6 to 15 – take the national exam for primary education at grade 5 and the national exam for secondary education at grade 9. 9 ability. Second, better educated parents usually have higher preferences for their child’s education. Third, better educated parents can assist their children better in their school work and thus help them succeed at school. Accordingly, this variable will capture a part of the unobserved heterogeneity of a child’s ability and the parent’s preference for their child’s education, all of which are highly important in determining child labor and children’s educational success. Because temporary paternal absence has direct influences on children’s outcome (Booth and Tamura, 2009), a dummy variable indicating whether both parents are present in the household is included. At the household level, we include variables that reflect the household economic conditions and the demographic structure of children within the household. We would like to use household per capita income to measure household economic status. However, due to measurement errors in measuring rural income (Deaton, 1997), we use household per capita expenditure instead. Other variables reflecting the demographic structure of children within the household are the number of siblings by age groups and the average birth space between siblings. To control for the heterogeneity of schools and identify which school characteristics are significant in determining child labor as well as student’s academic achievement, several school characteristics are used. These are variables indicating whether the school has electricity, a library, enough chairs and tables, and the proportion of rooms with a good blackboard. Variables reflecting teacher characteristics are the proportion of experienced teachers having more than five years of teaching and the proportion of qualified teachers according to the Vietnamese Ministry of Education and Training (MOET) standard.8 8 According to the MOET teacher’s standard, qualified teachers in primary and lower secondary education are expected to have graduated from a college-level training institution with 3-years training period and upper-secondary school teachers are expected to have graduated from a university-level training institution with 4-years training period. 10 At commune level, variables indicating the average distance to the school and the percentage of educated people within the commune are included. If children live far from school, going to school takes time and effort; children may choose to stay at home and work. As a result, the further the distance from school, the higher the probability of missing classes. Following Card (1993), we expect a negative correlation between the distance to school and children’s academic score. In contrast, we expect a positive association between the percentage of educated people within the commune and children’s educational performance. Six regional dummies are also added to control for heterogeneity across seven regions. To solve the endogeneity problem of child labor when estimating the academic performance equation, we need instruments which are highly correlated with child labor but do not directly influence children’s academic success.9 As discussed in Edmonds (2007), for developing countries, a perfect instrument is the shadow value of child time. Theoretically, the shadow value of child time to a household depends on the amount of money that an hour of child work brings to the family and the marginal utility of an additional money unit to the family. This suggests that children are more likely to participate in child work than in study if their household is living under the subsistence level or there are various opportunities for a child to work and the return from an hour of child work is high (Basu and Van, 1998; Edmonds, 2007). With this in mind, some variables are thought of as instruments such as: the per capita cultivated land area of the household, the presence of local factories within 10km of the commune, and the average wage of unskilled female workers within the commune.10 The relevance of these instruments was checked 9 When studying the effect of school year work on high school achievement for students in the US, Tyler (2003) used the child labour law which varies across states as an instrument for school year work. 10 We first estimated two different model specifications with the average wage of unskilled female workers and then the average wage of unskilled male workers as instrumental variables. The result showed that while the average wage of unskilled female workers is highly statistically significant in determining hours of work for children of both 11 through their significance in the first stage estimation of child labor determinants (See AppendixA). Among them, only the average wage of unskilled female workers within a commune is statistically significant. As a result, this variable is used as an instrument. In addition, we also find that the correlation between the average wage of unskilled female workers within a commune and a student’s educational performance is very small, only at 0.0073 and this correlation is not significant even at up to a 60% level. The average wage of unskilled female workers within a commune satisfies the conditions for being a good instrumental variable therefore we used it as an instrument for child labor when estimating the impact of child labor on children’s educational success. 4.2. Estimation model In our observed sample, children’s average daily working hours are censored: about 40% of children report zero hours of work, while students’ academic scores are discrete and orderedranking. Consequently a system of two simultaneous equations consisting of a tobit equation for child labor and an ordered-probit equation for children’s educational success is estimated.11 (1a) sexes, the average wage of unskilled male workers is not statistically significant in determining hours of work for girls. Our empirical result is consistent with Dinopoulos and Zhao (2007)’s theoretical investigation that under certain restrictions, child labor and labor supply of unskilled female workers are perfectly substitutable. 11 It is argued that a parent’s decision on whether to send a child to work or to school also depends on the child’s educational ability. For this reason, previous academic performance should be also included in the current child labour equation. However, it is challenging to find a variable that affects children’s academic achievement without affecting child labour in order to get an unbiased and consistent estimate of the impact of previous academic performance on current child labour in Equation 1b. Our major interest here is the impact of child labour on children’s educational performance. With an instrumental variable for child labour, we can obtain an unbiased and consistent estimate of the impact of child labour on children’s educational performance in Equation 1a. We leave the question of how children’s previous academic performance affects their labour force participation for further studies. 12 (1b) Where: is a latent variable for student ’s academic score achieved in the past year ( ), which is ordinal and observed in one of four ranking values: 12 if (a child has poor study result) if (a child has average study result) if (a child has good study result) if (a child has excellent study result) : are three cut points of the ordered-probit model. is a latent variable for the actual value ( indicating average daily hours of child work over the past year, excluding schoolwork at home: 12 if (a child does work) if (a child does not work) Children’s educational scores were collected from the self-reported information. This self-reported information may be biased because a child tends not to report the true academic score if the score is bad. For the case of Vietnam, as discussed in Dang (2007), there are two reasons that this bias due will not happen. First, in contrast to many countries, in Vietnam students’ test scores are public. Teachers let all students in the class know the scores of their friends and name those who score the highest to encourage students to emulate these successes. Second, children are asked about their academic results in the presence of adult family members so it is unlikely that they will misreport their results. 13 is a vector of characteristics observed at individual, household, school, commune and regional levels; is a vector consisting of the constant term, the vector of observed characteristics the instrument for child labor; are parameters to be estimated; and assumed to follow a bivariate normal distribution with and are error terms normalised to 1, is the correlation coefficient between the error terms of the two equations, and the variancecovariance matrix is given by: .13 5. Estimation results and interpretations Table 3 reports the determinants and impact of child labor on children’s educational performance in rural Vietnam. The estimated sample includes children of both sexes. Panel A presents the results of the joint equations estimates, Panel B presents the results of the single equations estimate. In the joint equations estimate, presented in Panel A, the estimated correlation coefficient between the error terms of the two equations – rho ( – is positive and highly statistically significant. In addition, while the impact of child labor on children’s academic performance is positive and not significant in the single equation estimate, it is negative and highly significant in the joint equations estimate. These results suggest that there is bias in the estimated impact of child 13 When : the system can be estimated by single equations, when : a single equation estimation will be biased and the two equations should be estimated jointly. For further details of the system of simultaneous equations and its applications, see Amemiya (1974), Dang (2007), Cameron and Cobb-Clark (2008), Nguyen, Liu and Booth (2012). Our system estimation is programmed in the aML (applied multi-level) statistical package developed by Lillard and Panis (2003). All optimization in aML uses Full Information Maximum Likelihood. 14 labor on children’s educational performance when the correlation between unobserved factors is not controlled for. Figure 2 plots the predicted probability of falling into one of four academic rankings in response to hours of child work, keeping all other observed characteristics at their mean. The horizontal axis indicates children’s working hours ranging from 0 to 12. With 12 as the maximum hours of child work 1, 2, 3.2, 4.1 and 6.1 hours correspond to the 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th and 99th percentiles, respectively. The Figure suggests that more hours of child work relate to a lower probability that a child accomplishes good or excellent study results and a higher probability that a child falls into a poor or average academic category. [Table 3 and Figure 2 about here] It can also be seen from Table 3 that the gender dummy is highly significant with negative estimated coefficients in the child labor equations of all model specifications suggesting that other things being equal, girls have to work more. There is also a significant difference in academic achievement between boys and girls. The change in predicted probability of falling into each academic category in response to a change in children’s gender from girl to boy suggests that, ceteris paribus, girls have a higher probability of achieving a good or excellent academic category and a lower probability of reporting a poor academic category. Note that, while girls have to work more they are more successful at school. This could be consistent with other studies showing that girls tend to develop earlier than boys and thus perform better than boys at early ages (Epstein et al., 1998). However, another possible explanation for our result is sample selection. Because our sample only includes those who are attending school with their academic score available, those who drop out of school are not observed. For children of primary school ages (from 6 to 10 years), this sample selection is not a problem because primary education is compulsory in Vietnam and the enrolment rates for children at these ages are high (over 96 percent) for both sexes. However, 15 as children get older, the gender bias against girls in rural households’ investment decisions leads to a higher school drop-out rate for girls than for boys. The enrolment rates for girls and boys in rural Vietnam at lower secondary education level in 1998 are 74 percent and 84 percent, respectively. Therefore, those girls who remain at school might be a group of higher educational ability. We estimated the impact of child labor on children’s educational performance separately for children of each sex. The estimation results are shown in Table 4. Consistent with the pooled sample estimate, the estimations separately for children of each sex show that the estimated coefficients of hours of child work in the academic achievement equation are negative. However, while the impact of child labor on children’s academic performance is highly statistically significant for girls in all model specifications, the impact is not significant for boys in specifications of model 1 and 3. Figure 3 further plots the predicted probability of achieving one of four academic rankings in response to the child work burden, keeping all other observed characteristics at their mean, for boys and girls separately. The absolute slope of the graph – illustrating the change in the probability of getting a poor, good or excellent academic result in response to hours of child work – is always higher for girls than for boys. The results suggest that child labor has a bigger negative impact on girls’ academic performance. [Figure 3 about here] Turning to the impact of other explanatory variables, household economic conditions, measured as household per capita expenditure, play an important role in determining child labor. Other things being equal, while children from poor households have to work significantly longer hours, these children achieve better academic results. Ceteris paribus, children from the minority 16 ethnic group have to work more and these children have significantly lower academic results than children from the majority ethnic group. Children have to work more as they get older, however the rate of increase declines with children’s age. We find no evidence of a reduction in working hours during the children’s final grade of each educational level. However, the dummy variable for the last grades is highly significant in determining children’s academic achievement. Specifically, the predicted probability of falling in each academic ranking in response to a change in a child’s last grade shows that there is a significant improvement in a student’s academic performance in the final grade. This may arise from the fact that once children are sent to work because of household poverty, the economic value of child labor contributes to the survival of the family. So despite recognizing the importance of children’s academic performance in their final grades, there is nothing that households can do to reduce their child’s work burden if the family is to survive economically. However students themselves recognise the importance of academic performance in their final grades and thus make their own effort to succeed in these years. Consistent with the literature, we find a highly significant and positive impact of father’s and mother’s education on children’s academic achievement. Additionally, the presence of both parents in the house has a positive impact on children’s educational performance. Perhaps when both parents are in the house, they have more time to observe, support and supervise their children in studying and thus help them have better academic achievements. Turning to the demographic structure of children within the household, we see that while children in households with more young siblings (0-5 years) have to work more, children in households with more older siblings (12 & over years) have to work less. Children in households with larger birth spaces between siblings have to work less. 17 It is remarkable that children’s height is highly significant in determining their academic performance.14 Taller children have a higher probability of accomplishing either a good or an excellent academic result and a lower probability of falling into a poor academic category. Because children’s height reflects their nutritional status (O’Donnell et al., 2009; Gørgens et al., 2012), our result suggests that children’s nutritional status plays an important role in improving children’s academic performance in rural Vietnam. Does better school quality reduce child labor and enhance students’ learning? Several school characteristics, such as the presence of electricity, a library and the proportion of rooms with a good blackboard are found to have significantly positive impacts on the students’ academic achievement. However, the adequacy of a school’s chairs and tables is not significant in determining the students’ academic performance. In terms of teacher characteristics, a higher proportion of experienced teachers significantly reduces child labor. As expected, the probability of falling into an average and a poor academic category increases with the children’s distance from school. Children who live in mountainous areas have to work more than comparable children who live in the inland delta. However, geographical characteristics are not significant in determining children’s educational outcome. Notably, the proportion of educated people within the commune has a strong impact on a student’s academic success. The probability of achieving good or excellent academic results increases remarkably in communes with a higher proportion of educated people. Perhaps education in those communities with a higher proportion of educated people is valued more highly. Parents there have a higher preference for their child’s schooling; children are more ambitious to succeed at school. It may also be that children in communities with 14 Children’s height-for-age z-score is calculated using version 3.1 of the ANTHRO program released by the World Health Organization in June 2010. 18 a higher proportion of educated people can easily find people who have the ability to help them with difficult study problems. 6. Conclusions This paper evaluates the impact of child labor on children’s academic performance in rural Vietnam using the 1998 Vietnam Living Standard Survey. We use the average wage of unskilled female workers within a commune as an instrument for child labor. We estimate a system of simultaneous tobit and ordered probit equations standing for the determinants of child labor and children’s educational performance, respectively. We find that child labor has a negative impact on the students’ academic performance. The negative impact is bigger for girls. Among other observed characteristics, household economic condition is one of the most important determinants of child labor. While children from poor households have to work harder, these children have a higher probability of being successful at school. There is a bias against girls with regard to the child work burden and households’ educational investment decision. Children from the minority ethnic group have to work more and these children achieve lower academic results than children from the majority group. Therefore, rural child support programs should particularly focus on educational programs to alleviate the gender bias in households’ educational investment decisions and on socio-economic programs supporting children in the minority ethnic group. Because children’s nutritional status plays an important role in improving their academic performance, child support programs which provide nutritious food for children attending school in poor rural communities will help to improve children’s academic results. Our results also have important policy implications for community and school investments. In particular, providing electricity, a library and a good blackboard are important in enhancing student’s study results. 19 Acknowledgements For helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper, we would like to thank Professor Alison Booth, Professor Robert Breunig, Associate Professor Tue Gorgens, Dr. Ha Trong Nguyen, Dr. Mathias Sinning and Dr. Yuji Tamura. Any errors are our own. 20 References Amemiya, Takeshi. 1974. Multivariate Regression and Simultaneous Equation Models when the Dependent Variables are Truncated Normal. Econometrica 42 (6): 999-1012. Asian Development Bank. 2003. 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(2) A child is considered as working if he or she has a positive number of hours of non-housework labor supply Table 2: Children’s Academic Score by Activities in Rural Areas in 1998 All sample By Gender Girls Study only Work and study Study only Work and study Study only Work and study Poor 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% Average 49% 56% 43% 52% 55% 59% Good 36% 36% 41% 39% 32% 33% Excellent 11% 5% 13% 7% 9% 4% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Academic ranking Source: VLSS 1998, own calculations. Note: Boys See Table 1 23 Table 3: Determinants and Impact of Child Labor on Children’s Educational Outcome in Rural Vietnam in 1998 VARIABLES Panel A Model 1 Academic score Hours worked Age Age squared Last grade Male Minority Father's years of schooling Mother's years of schooling Parents living in the house Number siblings age 0-5 Number siblings age 6-11 Number siblings age 12-15 Number siblings age 16-18 Number siblings age 19 & over Birth space Height for age z scores Hours worked -0.122 ** (0.053) Mean wage of unskilled workers Individual & household characteristics Ln of household per capita expenditure Model 2 Academic score 0.319 *** (0.046) -0.002 (0.061) 0.000 (0.003) 0.141 *** (0.045) -0.238 *** (0.036) -0.271 *** (0.058) 0.047 *** (0.006) 0.034 *** (0.006) 0.060 (0.060) Model 3 Hours worked -0.110 ** (0.053) 0.137 *** (0.045) -0.212 *** (0.073) 1.149 *** (0.100) -0.035 *** (0.005) 0.090 (0.074) -0.335 *** (0.056) 0.298 *** (0.091) -0.002 (0.010) 0.023 ** (0.011) -0.077 (0.095) Academic score Hours worked -0.101 * (0.061) 0.156 *** (0.044) 0.236 *** (0.049) -0.006 (0.058) 0.000 (0.003) 0.122 *** (0.046) -0.248 *** (0.037) -0.295 *** (0.057) 0.048 *** (0.006) 0.030 *** (0.007) 0.085 (0.069) -0.036 (0.028) -0.088 *** (0.023) -0.091 *** (0.025) -0.030 (0.035) -0.016 (0.031) -0.018 (0.021) 0.084 *** (0.019) Panel B Model 4 -0.180 ** (0.074) 1.164 *** (0.102) -0.033 *** (0.005) 0.092 (0.074) -0.343 *** (0.056) 0.218 ** (0.089) -0.006 (0.010) 0.007 (0.011) -0.064 (0.102) 0.093 * (0.048) 0.025 (0.036) -0.174 *** (0.041) -0.293 *** (0.056) -0.083 (0.057) -0.064 * (0.036) 0.016 (0.030) School & community characteristics 24 Academic score 0.169 *** (0.046) 0.288 *** (0.049) -0.034 (0.063) 0.001 (0.003) 0.172 *** (0.047) -0.239 *** (0.039) -0.217 *** (0.064) 0.049 *** (0.007) 0.029 *** (0.007) 0.109 * (0.062) Hours worked 0.017 (0.015) -0.202 *** (0.077) 1.100 *** (0.105) -0.033 *** (0.005) 0.091 (0.077) -0.338 *** (0.058) 0.263 *** (0.098) -0.003 (0.011) 0.025 ** (0.011) -0.074 (0.096) 0.172*** (0.050) 0.308*** (0.047) -0.073 (0.059) 0.001 (0.003) 0.168*** (0.050) -0.218*** (0.037) -0.242*** (0.064) 0.050*** (0.007) 0.027*** (0.007) 0.114* (0.064) -0.210*** (0.076) 1.076*** (0.099) -0.031*** (0.005) 0.092 (0.076) -0.344*** (0.059) 0.255** (0.100) -0.004 (0.011) 0.028** (0.011) -0.140 (0.109) % rooms good blackboard Have enough chairs & tables Have electricity Have library Share of qualified teachers Share of experienced teachers Distance to school Coastal Hills & mountain Have road that car can travel on % educated people within commune Regional dummies YES Constant YES YES -5.261 *** (0.747) Cut1 (Alpha1) Cut2 (Alpha2) Cut3 (Alpha3) 0.784 * (0.436) 2.891 *** (0.435) 4.286 *** (0.436) Sigma -5.389 *** (0.790) -0.254 (0.478) 1.872 *** (0.479) 3.275 *** (0.482) 1.697 *** (0.036) Rho Log Likelihood Observations Observations left-censored at 0 0.189 ** (0.074) -10400.151 4,367 YES 4,367 1,665 0.159 ** (0.066) -0.046 (0.063) 0.154 *** (0.050) 0.127 *** (0.044) 0.138 (0.085) -0.035 (0.104) -0.016 * (0.008) 0.064 (0.078) 0.014 (0.055) 0.028 (0.057) 1.751 *** (0.412) YES 1.996 *** (0.584) 4.139 *** (0.584) 5.542 *** (0.588) 4,252 1,599 0.159 ** (0.066) -0.046 (0.063) 0.154 *** (0.050) 0.127 *** (0.044) 0.138 (0.085) -0.035 (0.104) -0.016 * (0.008) 0.064 (0.078) 0.014 (0.055) 0.028 (0.057) 1.751 *** (0.412) YES -5.815 *** (0.976) 1.665 *** (0.035) 0.172 ** (0.072) -10074.752 4,252 0.177 * (0.103) -0.166 * (0.100) 0.371 *** (0.083) -0.016 (0.067) 0.060 (0.128) -0.427 *** (0.153) 0.001 (0.015) 0.013 (0.133) 0.266 *** (0.087) 0.010 (0.094) 0.922 (0.662) YES -5.584*** (0.953) 1.917*** (0.579) 4.082*** (0.581) 5.500*** (0.583) 1.655 *** (0.037) 0.165 ** (0.082) -9210.041 3,919 0.177 * (0.103) -0.166 * (0.100) 0.371 *** (0.083) -0.016 (0.067) 0.060 (0.128) -0.427 *** (0.153) 0.001 (0.015) 0.013 (0.133) 0.266 *** (0.087) 0.010 (0.094) 0.922 (0.662) YES 3,919 1,492 1.647*** (0.025) -3638.190 3,919 -5575.005 3,919 1,492 Source: VLSS 1998, own estimations. Notes: (1) Huber-White robust standard errors accounting for clustered sample at commune levels are in parentheses, P values: significance * = 10%; ** = 5%; *** = 1%. (2) The two equations in models 1 to 3 are jointly estimated. The two equations in model 4 are estimated separately. (3) Inland Delta is the base group for geographical characteristics. Six regional dummies are included to control for heterogeneity across seven regions. (3) Model 1 controls for the most basic individual characteristics and regional dummies; Model 2 adds to Model 1 the number of siblings by age groups, the average birth space between siblings and the standard height-for-age z scores; Model 3 adds to Model 1 school and community characteristics. 25 Table 4: Impact of Child Labor on Children’s Educational Performance in Rural Vietnam in 1998 for Girls and Boys separately VARIABLES GIRLS BOYS Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Academic score Academic score Academic score Academic score Academic score Academic score equation equation equation equation equation equation -0.166 ** -0.146 * -0.185 ** -0.086 -0.146 * -0.037 (0.080) (0.081) (0.083) (0.069) (0.081) (0.083) Other explanatory variables YES YES YES YES YES YES Observations 2,019 1,967 1,823 2,348 2,285 2,096 Hours worked Source: VLSS 1998, own estimations. Notes: (1) Huber-White robust standard errors accounting for clustered sample at commune levels are in parentheses P values: significance * = 10%; ** = 5%; *** =1%. (2) Results are extracted from the joint equations estimates. Model 1 controls for the most basic individual characteristics and regional dummies; Model 2 adds to Model 1 the number of siblings by age groups, the average birth space between siblings and the standard height-for-age z scores; Model 3 adds to Model 1 school and community characteristics. For the list of variables in each model specification, see Table 3. 26 Figure 1: Rural Children’s Labor Force Participation and Non-housework Labor Supply by Age in 1998 Source: VLSS 1998, own calculations. Notes: (1) Samples are weighted by sample weights (2) A child is considered as working if he or she has a positive number of hours of non-housework labor supply 27 .4 0 .2 Predicted Probability .6 .8 Figure 2: Predicted Probabilities of Falling in Each Academic Category in Response to Hours of Child Work 0 1 2 3.2 4.1 6.1 12 Daily Hours of Child Work Excellent Good Average Poor Source: VLSS 1998, own estimations. Note: (1) Sample includes rural children. (2) These predicted probabilities are calculated from the result of the joint equations estimate reported in Table 3 - model 3; other variables are evaluated at their mean. 28 Figure 3: Predicted Probabilities of Falling in Each Academic Category in Response to Hours of Child Work for Girls and Boys .6 0 .2 .4 Predicted Probability .4 0 .2 Predicted Probability .6 .8 Boys .8 Girls 0 1 2 3.3 4.3 6.6 Daily Hours of Child Work Excellent Good Average 12 Poor 0 1 2 3.2 4 6 Daily Hours of Child Work Excellent Good Average 12 Poor Source: VLSS 1998, own estimations. Note: (1) Sample includes rural children. (2) These predicted probabilities of children falling in each academic category are calculated from the results of the joint equations estimates reported in Table 4 - model 3; other variables are evaluated at their mean 29 Appendix A: First Stage Estimation of Hours Worked per Week on Primary Control Variables Plus Various Instruments Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) 0.015 0.013 0.035 (0.061) (0.061) (0.067) 0.141*** 0.161*** 0.173*** (0.047) (0.048) (0.049) YES YES YES Pseudo R-squared 0.136 0.143 0.147 No. of observations 4,367 4,252 3,919 F statistic F (3, 4349) = 3.078 F(3, 4227) = 3.986 F(3,3890) = 4.254 Two-sided P value [Prob> F(3, 4349)] = 0.026 [Prob> F(3, 4227)] = 0.007 [Prob> F(3,3890)] = 0.005 F statistic F (2, 4349) = 0.105 F(2, 4227) = 0.190 F(2,3890) = 0.136 Two-sided P value [Prob> F (2, 4349)] = 0.901 [Prob> F(2, 4227)] = 0.827 [Prob> F(2,3890)] = 0.873 Explanatory Variables Instrumental variables: Per capita cultivated land area Presence of factory located within 10km of the commune Mean wage of unskilled female workers within the commune Other explanatory variables Test of the hypothesis H : all the instrumental variables are jointly zero Test of the hypothesis H : the first two instrumental variables are jointly zero Source: VLSS 1998, own estimations. Notes: (1) Standard errors are in parentheses, P values: significance * = 10%; ** = 5%; *** =1%. (2) Model 1 controls for the most basic individual characteristics and regional dummies; Model 2 adds to Model 1 the number of siblings by age groups, the average birth space between siblings and the standard height-for-age z scores; Model 3 adds to Model 1 school and community characteristics. 30 Appendix B: Summary Statistics of Variables VARIABLES All sample By Gender Girls Boys Dependent Variables: Hours worked Academic score 1.254 1.429 1.332 1.504 1.186 1.363 0.197 0.200 0.194 7.637 10.297 112.969 0.182 0.187 7.626 6.194 0.926 0.524 1.503 1.031 0.356 0.277 2.068 -1.896 7.636 10.151 109.812 0.182 0.182 7.658 6.314 0.921 0.572 1.563 1.013 0.360 0.273 2.076 -1.835 7.638 10.424 115.718 0.183 0.191 7.598 6.089 0.929 0.483 1.450 1.047 0.352 0.281 2.062 -1.949 0.770 0.888 0.748 0.422 0.777 0.733 3.169 0.079 0.479 0.823 0.744 0.779 0.893 0.738 0.421 0.784 0.736 3.183 0.088 0.476 0.828 0.744 0.762 0.884 0.757 0.423 0.771 0.730 3.158 0.071 0.482 0.820 0.745 0.196 0.165 0.098 0.105 0.132 0.164 0.196 3,826 0.194 0.172 0.092 0.106 0.132 0.161 0.194 1,781 0.197 0.159 0.103 0.104 0.132 0.166 0.197 2,045 Instrumental variable Average wage of unskilled workers within the commune Explanatory Variables: Individual & household characteristics Ln of household expenditure per capita Age Age squared Last grade Minority Father's years of schooling Mother's years of schooling Parents living in the house No siblings age 0-5 No siblings age 6-11 No siblings age 12-15 No siblings age 16-18 No siblings age 19 & over Birth space Height for age z score School & community characteristics Share of rooms with good blackboard Have enough chairs & tables Have electricity Have library Share of qualified teachers Share of experience teachers Distance to school Coastal Hills & mountain Have road that car can travel on Share of educated people within commune Regional dummies Northern Upland Red River Delta North Central Coast South Central Coast Central Highlands South East Mekong River Delta No of observations Source: VLSS 1998, own calculations. Notes: (1) Samples include rural children aged 6 to 15 years and are weighted. (2) Hours of child work is the average daily working hours over the past 12 months, including housework and nonhousework labor supply. 31
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