Dr. Garrett Harper
A TRANSFORMING REGION
JOINT METRO REGION
POPULATION
Population Growth
8%
7.5%
7.7%
6.9% 7.1%
6%
6.1%
4%
5.8%
4.3%
4.1%
2.7% 2.5%
2%
0%
2010-2015
Joint Metro Region
Nashville MSA
Tennessee
U.S.
2015-2020
Clarksville MSA
Source: US Census and REMI
POPULATION
Nashville Area Population
Inflow & Outflow
1,458
1,017
1,125
392
955
668
Chicago
Miami
Detroit
1,560
338
New York
Memphis
945
-
Knoxville
742
510
734
544
1,601
158
Tampa
Los Angeles
1,712
882
Birmingham
461
437
201
184
Phoenix
San Francisco
191
162
Boston
Source: US Census and REMI
POPULATION
Between 2000 and 2010 in Nashville
Source: The Research Center, Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce and Welcoming America
EMPLOYMENT
Workforce Percentage Change
(monthly change vs. 12 months prior)
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-2%
-4%
-6%
Employment
Labor Force
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
EMPLOYMENT
9%
EMPLOYMENT CHANGE 1991-2015
8%
12 MONTH MOVING AVERAGE
7%
6%
Nashville MSA
5%
U.S.
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
NASHVILLE MSA
US
-4%
-5%
-6%
Dec
1991
1990s
30.02%
2000s
3.93%
2010-15
27.50%
17.99%
-0.61%
10.21%
Nov
2015
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
UNEMPLOYMENT RANGE
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
UNEMPLOYMENT
Unemployment Rates by Race and Ethnicity
by Race and Ethnicity, Nashville MSA
14%
13.1%
11.9%
12%
10%
9.1%
8%
7.1%
Native
Other race* Two or more
Hawaiian
races
/Other Pacific
Islander*
Hispanic or
Latino
6.4%
6.3%
6%
7.3%
5.1%
4.5%
4%
2%
0%
Total
White
Black or
African
American
American
Indian/Alaska
Native*
Asian
Source: U.S Census
LABOR FORCE
Labor Force Participation Rate
70%
67.0%
67.3%
64.7%
65%
63.3%
61.4%
60%
55%
Joint Metro Region
Nashville MSA
Clarksville MSA
Tennessee
U.S.
Source: US Census and Bureau of Labor Statistics
AGE
Age Composition, Joint Metro Region 2015
49.2%
50%
40%
30%
20%
13.8%
12.8%
11.9%
12.3%
10%
0%
Pre and Young
Schoolers 0-9
Next Gen Talent Prime Worker Age Pre-Retirees (55(10-19)
(20-54)
64)
Retirees (65+)
Source: REMI
POPULATION
Joint Metro Region Population
Composition (2000)
Joint Metro Region Population
Composition (Projected 2030)
Ages 85+
Ages 80-84
Ages 75-79
Ages 70-74
Ages 65-69
Ages 60-64
Ages 55-59
Ages 50-54
Ages 45-49
Ages 40-44
Ages 35-39
Ages 30-34
Ages 25-29
Ages 20-24
Ages 15-19
Ages 10-14
Ages 5-9
Ages 0-4
Ages 85+
Ages 80-84
Ages 75-79
Ages 70-74
Ages 65-69
Ages 60-64
Ages 55-59
Ages 50-54
Ages 45-49
Ages 40-44
Ages 35-39
Ages 30-34
Ages 25-29
Ages 20-24
Ages 15-19
Ages 10-14
Ages 5-9
Ages 0-4
5%
0%
Male
5%
Female
5%
0%
Male
5%
Female
Source: REMI
EDUCATION
Employment Composition by Education, Joint Metro Region
0%
10%
20%
30%
39.0%
High school diploma
34.7%
6.7%
7.8%
Postsecondary non-degree award
Associate degree
1.1%
1.7%
Master's degree
% of 2015 Jobs
% of 2015-2020 Jobs
4.6%
6.0%
17.9%
20.1%
Bachelor's degree
Doctoral or professional degree
50%
27.2%
24.1%
Less than high school
Some college, no degree
40%
2.1%
3.3%
1.5%
2.2%
Source: EMSI
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF LABOR FORCE 25+
BY RACE AND ETHNICITY, NASHVILLE MSA
Less than high school
High school graduate
Total
12%
White
11%
Black or African American
Some college, no degree
28%
Asian
20%
29%
14%
Associate's degree
21%
17%
Other race
7%
20%
30%
13%
Hispanic or Latino
5%
10%
24%
20%
25%
46%
28%
25%
40%
0%
33%
8%
50%
Two or more races
32%
7%
23%
11%
Bachelor's degree or higher
8%
6%
40%
50%
9%
60%
11%
33%
31%
30%
3%
70%
6%
80%
14%
90%
100%
Source: U.S Census
MEDIAN INCOME
BY RACE AND ETHNICITY - NASHVILLE MSA
$70,000
$60,000
$65,727
$57,796
$53,640
$50,000
$47,065
$42,159
$40,000
$34,199
$38,997
$36,439
$28,466
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$Total
White
Black or
African
American
American
Indian/
Alaskan
Native
Asian
Native Other race Two or Hispanic or
Hawaiian or
More Races Latino
Other
Pacific
Islander*
Source: U.S Census
HEALTH
Percentage of Population in Poor or Fair Health
Davidson
Wilson
Williamson
Sumner
Smith
Rutherford
Robertson
Montgomery
Maury
Macon
Hickman
Dickson
Cheatham
Cannon
Tennessee
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
*Trousdale data not available
Source: County Health Rankings
INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT
Industry Employment Growth Rates
2005-2010
Healthcare
Manufacturing
Finance & Insurance
Information
Construction
Creative & Cultural Industries
Logistics
Hospitality
HQs, Back offices, Shared services
2010-2015
2015-2020
(projected)
21.3%
15.4%
11.6%
-31.7%
17.4%
-4.2%
6.4%
10.0%
4.5%
-6.4%
5.2%
0.6%
-16.8%
17.5%
11.2%
1.1%
13.9%
6.2%
-6.4%
22.1%
6.9%
1.4%
19.1%
4.6%
-2.3%
32.5%
10.5%
Source: EMSI and Burning Glass
LABOR MOBILITY
Source: US Census and the Research Center, Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce
COST OF LIVING – ADVANTAGE and DISADVANTAGE
Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology
HOUSEHOLD
Tax Burden by Household Income
Source: District of Columbia Finance Department and The Research Center, Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce, 2014
POVERTY
Population Living Below Poverty Level
2014
Davidson
Rutherford
Sumner
Maury
Wilson
Williamson
Robertson
Among the 100 largest MSAs, only one region the Nashville metro area - experienced an
increase in both the poverty population and
poverty rate from 2013 to 2014.
Dickson
Cheatham
Macon
Hickman
Smith
Cannon
Trousdale
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Source: US Census
POVERTY
PERCENTAGE OF NASHVILLE CENSUS TRACTS
BY POVERTY RATE, 2014
30%
25%
24.8%
20%
15%
11.0%
10%
5%
3.7%
0.9%
0.9%
Tracts with 60%
poverty or higher
Tracts wtih 70%
poverty or higher
0%
Tracts with 30%
poverty or higher
Tracts with 40%
poverty or higher
Tracts with 50%
poverty or higher
POVERTY
PERCENTAGE OF NASHVILLE CENSUS TRACTS
WITH POVERTY RATE INCREASES, 2000-2014
90%
84.4%
80%
70%
60%
55.0%
50%
40%
33.9%
30%
20%
10%
16.5%
7.3%
0%
# tracts of with an # of tracts with an # of tracts with an # of tracts with an # of tracts with an
increase in poverty increase in poverty increase in poverty increase in poverty increase in poverty
5% or higher
10% or higher
15% or higher
20% or higher
EDUCATION
PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN NASHVILLE CENSUS TRACTS
IN NON-COLLEGE EDUCATED RESIDENTS, 2000-2014
30%
28.4%
25%
20%
17.4%
15%
10%
8.3%
6.4%
5%
0.9%
0%
# of tracts with # of tracts with 2% # of tracts with 4% # of tracts with 6% # of tracts with 8%
any % increase in increase in no
increase in no
increase in no
increase in no
no college
college residents college residents college residents college residents
residents
HOUSING
PERCENTAGE OF NASHVILLE CENSUS TRACTS
WITH INCREASES IN HOME VALUE, 2000-2014
50%
43.1%
40%
38.5%
30.3%
30%
22.9%
20%
14.7%
12.8%
10%
0%
50% increase in 60% increase in 70% increase in 80% increase in 90% increase in 100% increase
median home
median home
median home
median home
median home in median home
value or higher value or higher value or higher value or higher value or higher value or higher
HOUSING
PERCENTAGE OF NASHVILLE CENSUS TRACTS
WITH INCREASES IN GROSS RENT, 2000-2014
40%
35%
34.9%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
21.1%
17.4%
12.8%
9.2%
6.4%
5%
0%
50% increase in 60% increase in 70% increase in 80% increase in 90% increase in 100% increase
median gross
median gross
median gross
median gross
median gross in median gross
rent or higher
rent or higher
rent or higher
rent or higher
rent or higher
rent or higher
HOUSING
Median Housing Price and Per Capita Income
Nashville Region
Inflation adjusted (2015) index: 2003 = 100
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Housing Price Index
Per Capita Income Index
70
60
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Greater Nashville Association of Realtors and Us Bureau of Economic Analysis
GENTRIFYING TRACTS
1990 to 2000
Source: Governing.
GENTRIFYING TRACTS
2000 to present
Nashville ranks 19th most
gentrifying city out of the
nation’s 50 largest cities.
Source: Governing
HOUSEHOLD ECONOMICS
RENTAL UNITS ABOVE FAIR MARKET RENT
Percentage of Units above Fair Market Rent
Number of Units above Fair Market Rent
Fair Market Rent for a One-bedroom Apartment
$800
$700
$600
$710
$653
$587
$599
$500
$400
$300
$200
Nashville MSA
$100
Clarksville MSA
$0
2012
2015
Source: U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development
HOUSEHOLD ECONOMICS
TOP 50 OCCUPATIONS and
MINIMUM EDUCATION REQUIREMENT
JOINT METRO REGION
Less than High School
13
High School Diploma or Equivalent
26
Post-secondary Certificate or Associate Degree
4
Bachelor's Degree
6
Doctoral or Professional Degree
1
Only twenty-six of the top 50 occupations in the Nashville
and Clarksville area earn wages high enough to afford a
one-bedroom apartment at the fair market rental rate.
Source: EMSI, 2014
Dr. Garrett Harper