doi: 10.1111/jeb.12268 SHORT COMMUNICATION Turtle origins: insights from phylogenetic retrofitting and molecular scaffolds M. S. Y. LEE*† *Earth Sciences Section, South Australian Museum, North Terrace, Adelaide, SA, Australia †School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia Keywords: Abstract amphibians and reptiles; Archosauria; Bayesian inference; Diapsida; molecular scaffold; morphological evolution; Parareptilia; parsimony; phylogenetics; Testudines. Adding new taxa to morphological phylogenetic analyses without substantially revising the set of included characters is a common practice, with drawbacks (undersampling of relevant characters) and potential benefits (character selection is not biased by preconceptions over the affinities of the ‘retrofitted’ taxon). Retrofitting turtles (Testudines) and other taxa to recent reptile phylogenies consistently places turtles with anapsid-grade parareptiles (especially Eunotosaurus and/or pareiasauromorphs), under both Bayesian and parsimony analyses. This morphological evidence for turtle–parareptile affinities appears to contradict the robust genomic evidence that extant (living) turtles are nested within diapsids as sister to extant archosaurs (birds and crocodilians). However, the morphological data are almost equally consistent with a turtle–archosaur clade: enforcing this molecular scaffold onto the morphological data does not greatly increase tree length (parsimony) or reduce likelihood (Bayesian inference). Moreover, under certain analytic conditions, Eunotosaurus groups with turtles and thus also falls within the turtle–archosaur clade. This result raises the possibility that turtles could simultaneously be most closely related to a taxon traditionally considered a parareptile (Eunotosaurus) and still have archosaurs as their closest extant sister group. Introduction One of the major unresolved issues in vertebrate phylogeny concerns the affinities of turtles (Testudines: tortoises, terrapins and sea turtles). Their highly aberrant morphology means that many aspects of their anatomy are difficult to compare with other extinct and extant vertebrates; consequently, turtles have a disproportionate number of debated homologies in morphological phylogenetic analyses and are often highly unstable ‘wildcard’ taxa (Lee, 2001; Harris et al., 2007). The advent of molecular systematics has not supported any of the morphological hypotheses. Several recent genomic-scale molecular studies have robustly nested turtles within diapsid reptiles, as sister group to archosaurs Correspondence: M. S. Y. Lee, Earth Sciences Section, South Australian Museum, North Terrace, Adelaide 5000, SA, Australia. Tel.: +61 8 8207 7568; fax: +61 8 8207 7422; e-mail: [email protected] (birds and crocodilians) among extant taxa (e.g. Chiari et al., 2012; Crawford et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2013). Simultaneously however, the most recent morphological studies (Carroll, 2013; Lyson et al., 2013) place turtles in a much more basal position, with extinct anapsid-grade reptiles and thus outside of diapsids altogether. Early cladistic analyses united turtles with various groups of anapsid-grade reptiles, initially captorhinids (e.g. Gauthier et al., 1988), and two groups of parareptiles: procolophonids (e.g. Reisz & Laurin, 1991; Laurin & Reisz, 1995) and pareiasaurs (e.g. Lee, 1995). However, the assumption that turtles were anapsid-grade reptiles was strongly challenged by studies placing them with sauropterygians, a clade of marine diapsids that includes placodonts, plesiosaurs (Rieppel & deBraga, 1996; deBraga & Rieppel, 1997). Even though the strength of the character support for this arrangement was debated, other lines of evidence were interpreted as additional independent support for the sauropterygian hypothesis. First, discovery of the ª 2013 THE AUTHOR. J. EVOL. BIOL. 26 (2013) 2729–2738 JOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY ª 2013 EUROPEAN SOCIETY FOR EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY 2729 2730 M. S. Y. LEE most primitive known turtle (Odontochelys) revealed that it was highly aquatic (Li et al., 2008). However, primitive turtles apart from Odontochelys are highly terrestrial (Joyce & Gauthier, 2004), leading to suggestions that turtles might be primarily terrestrial, and Odontochelys thus secondarily aquatic (Reisz & Head, 2008). Second, molecular data – culminating in genomes – started to place turtles within diapsids with increasing support (Hedges, 2012). However, the molecular data place turtles near archosaurian diapsids, whereas the morphological analyses that unite turtles with sauropterygians place both groups with lepidosaurian diapsids. There is little morphological support that turtles are related to archosaurian diapsids (Rieppel, 2000; but see Bhullar & Bever, 2009). Nevertheless, morphological hypotheses placing turtles with anapsid groups (and thus outside of diapsids altogether) were even more incongruent with the emerging molecular consensus. Based on all these considerations, turtles are currently widely accepted to be most closely related to archosaurs among extant taxa (e.g. Hedges, 2012) and, with less certainty, to be most closely related to sauropterygians among extinct taxa (e.g. Li et al., 2008; M€ uller & Tsuji, 2007), although the above contradiction (sauropterygians are related to lepidosaurs, not archosaurs) has not been resolved. This emerging consensus that turtles were somewhere within diapsids has been recently challenged by the observation that the anapsid-grade parareptile Eunotosaurus uniquely shares with turtles a suite of unique morphological novelties (Lyson et al., 2010, 2013; Carroll, 2013). These include a carapace formed by expanded ribs, a greatly shortened body (trunk) region consisting of no more than 10 vertebrae, and reduction in intercostal musculature. These resemblances have been known for a century (Watson, 1914), but surprisingly, no quantitative phylogenetic analysis had ever simultaneously included both Eunotosaurus and turtles. This was partly because of the assumption that Eunotosaurus was nested within parareptiles and turtles were nested within diapsids. Analyses of anapsid reptiles (including Eunotosaurus) thus did not consider turtles (Modesto, 2000; M€ uller & Tsuji, 2007; Tsuji et al., 2012), whereas analyses of turtle affinities focused on diapsid reptiles and did not sample minor anapsid groups such as Eunotosaurus (deBraga & Rieppel, 1997; Rieppel & Reisz, 1999; Li et al., 2008). When turtles were eventually added to analyses of anapsid reptiles, and Eunotosaurus added to analyses of diapsid reptiles, a robust Eunotosaurus–turtle grouping resulted on both occasions (Lyson et al., 2010, 2013). Furthermore, the Eunotosaurus–turtle clade fell within anapsids, nested within parareptiles, often close to two other candidate turtle relatives (procolophonids and pareiasaurs). There thus seemed to be phylogenetic signal placing turtles with Eunotosaurus, and within anapsid parareptiles, but outside of Diapsida. ‘Retrofitting phylogenies’ – adding taxa to existing data matrices without substantially reevaluating the character list – is a necessarily common practice. Researchers rarely have time or resources to construct fresh morphological character lists when describing new taxa; typically, character lists from previous analyses are employed largely unchanged, perhaps supplemented by a few extra characters relevant to the ‘retrofitted’ taxon. However, the pros and cons of this approach (to my knowledge) have been rarely discussed (Lee, 1995): there are obvious limitations, but perhaps also potential benefits. Major errors would occur if retrofitted taxon does not belong in the analysis (ingroup) at all, but such problems are unlikely except in the most poorly known groups or for highly incomplete taxa. A recent example concerns a fragmentary pterosaur mandible (Buffetaut, 2011), which emerged as a ‘bird’ when inappropriately included in a data set focused on avian and nonavian theropods (Naish et al., 2012). Also, such errors are not directly related to retrofitting taxa per se; rather, they result from incorrect ingroup–outgroup assumptions and can affect any analysis. Another potential problem concerns the unavoidable subjectivity of many morphological character states (e.g. ‘large’ vs. ‘small’); adding taxa to a previous analysis is problematic if different workers have different interpretations of character states. Ultimately, though, this problem is again not particular to retrofitted phylogenies, but rather affects all morphological analyses: character states should ideally be defined so scorings can be replicated by other workers. An ideal solution would entail precise definitions (e.g. numerical ratios for quantitative traits) and illustrations of the states observed and scored in every single terminal taxon (as done by O’Leary et al. 2013). A limitation more specific to ‘retrofitting’ involves undersampling of informative characters relevant to the phylogenetic position of the added taxon. Phylogenetic data sets typically consider only parsimony-informative phenotypic traits, where the derived state is present in two or more terminal taxa (Yeates, 1992). Thus, the character sampling in such analyses would typically exclude traits where the derived condition is either (i) present only in retrofitted taxa (omitted as invariant in original study) or (ii) present only in the retrofitted taxa and a single original terminal taxon (omitted as autapomorphies in original study). Adding taxa to morphological matrices can make turn many previously invariant or autapomorphic characters into parsimonyinformative characters; such traits would be undersampled if taxa are retrofitted without expanding the pool of relevant characters. Paradoxically, the character bias introduced by ‘retrofitted taxa’ is also potentially illuminating. It is difficult or impossible to objectively sample and subdivide morphological characters, and many morphological studies have been argued to overly favour characters supporting ª 2013 THE AUTHOR. J. EVOL. BIOL. 26 (2013) 2729–2738 JOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY ª 2013 EUROPEAN SOCIETY FOR EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY Turtle relationships one particular phylogenetic hypothesis, for example, by oversampling or oversplitting such traits. It is notable that workers with particular interests in procolophonids (Reisz & Laurin, 1991), pareiasaurs (Lee, 1995) and sauropterygians (Rieppel & Reisz, 1999) each considered their focal taxon to be related to turtles – raising the possibility that character choice in these studies favoured synapomorphies linking turtles with (respectively) procolophonids, pareiasaurs and sauropterygians. In fact, as all biologists are aware of the basic branching pattern of the tree of life, it would be difficult to exclude phylogenetic preconceptions when choosing characters for any morphological phylogenetic analysis. This inherent bias might be reduced in retrofitted phylogenies. For instance, the first data set evaluated here was originally constructed to ascertain the position of turtles within diapsids (Li et al., 2008), without any consideration of Eunotosaurus. Thus, it is unlikely that there could have been any conscious bias favouring characters uniting Eunotosaurus with any particular taxa (such as turtles or parareptiles). Similarly, the second data set was designed to resolve affinities within parareptiles, with turtles being explicitly excluded (Tsuji et al., 2012). It is thus unlikely that there was any bias favouring traits uniting turtles with any particular parareptile taxon (such as Eunotosaurus). Thus, affinities of the retrofitted taxon revealed in such analyses are unlikely to be the result of biased character selection introduced by preconceptions over the ‘correct’ position of that taxon; rather, the phylogenetic signal for the retrofitted taxa can be considered to have emerged despite potential undersampling of relevant characters. Retrofitting taxa to two (relatively) independent data sets has retrieved a turtle–Eunotosaurus clade (Lyson et al., 2010, 2013). However, two important and interrelated questions remain. First, what are the relationships of other parareptiles to the Eunotosaurus–turtle clade, given that many of these parareptiles have been historically linked to Eunotosaurus and/or turtles? Second, how can the Eunotosaurus–turtle clade be reconciled with the robust molecular evidence that extant turtles are sister to extant archosaurs? These questions are investigated here by the evaluation of updated versions of the two ‘retrofitted’ data sets, and enforcing molecular scaffolds (Springer et al., 2001) to test whether the morphological data are truly incompatible with the genomic data. Materials and methods Morphological character matrices Two retrofitted matrices were analysed: Eunotosaurus was added to a diapsid-focused data set, and turtles were added to an anapsid-focused data set. Although these data sets are similar to previous studies (Lyson et al., 2010, 2013), the changes described below 2731 required new analyses to be performed. Each data set was analysed both with original character sampling (i.e. the original character list, constructed without any reference to the retrofitted taxa) and with character sampling slightly broadened to reflect information introduced by the new taxa (i.e. inclusion of new relevant characters, but potentially influenced by phylogenetic preconceptions about the retrofitted taxa). It is notable, however, that most of the new characters introduced related to similarities between Eunotosaurus and turtles; there was no similar effort to identify additional relevant characters supporting alternative (e.g. pareiasaur or procolophonid) affinities. The diapsid-focused data sets (Diapsid169 and Diapsid189) are based on an amniote data set of 169 characters with a broad sampling of diapsids, which originally placed turtles within diapsids as sister group to sauropterygians (Li et al., 2008). The (putative) parareptile Eunotosaurus was added to this data set, and turtle and diapsid taxon sampling slightly expanded with the addition of the stem-turtle Proganochelys and the armoured sauropterygian Sinosaurosphargis (Lyson et al., 2010, 2013). The latest version of this retrofitted matrix (Lyson et al., 2013) was analysed, first including just the 169 characters in the original diapsid-focused matrix (Li et al., 2008) and then with an additional 20 newly identified characters bringing the total to 189. These retrofitted data sets, with the original 169 characters and the expanded 189 characters, are here termed Diapsid169 and Diapsid189, respectively. The 20 new characters were based on the 22 identified by Lyson et al. (2010, 2013). Two of the 22 characters were omitted, and another redefined, due to likely redundancy (e.g. number of dorsal vertebrae and number of dorsal rib pairs are here treated as a single character rather than two). The new list of 20 extra characters, and changes to the previous set of 22, are listed in Table S1, and the full matrix is provided in Table S2. The anapsid-focused data sets (Anapsid136 and Anapsid154) are based on a very recent amniote data set of 136 characters with a broad sampling across anapsids, especially parareptiles (Tsuji et al., 2012). Turtles were not included in this matrix; thus, Odontochelys and Proganochelys were added to this data set using codings taken directly from Lyson et al. (2010). The latter study scored these basal turtles for these exact characters, when ‘retrofitting’ them to an earlier version of the anapsid data set (M€ uller & Tsuji, 2007). The anapsid matrix was analysed using only the original 136 characters and with the addition of 18 newly identified characters (bringing the total to 154). These new characters represented 18 of the 20 added to the diapsid data sets (the other 2 were already in the original anapsid matrix). These 18 characters were scored for most terminal taxa by Lyson et al. (2010, 2013); however, some lesser-known parareptile taxa in the anapsid matrix had to be coded for these characters using the primary ª 2013 THE AUTHOR. J. EVOL. BIOL. 26 (2013) 2729–2738 JOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY ª 2013 EUROPEAN SOCIETY FOR EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY 2732 M. S. Y. LEE literature and personal observations. The list of 18 extra characters, with anatomical sources, is provided in Table S1, and the full matrix is provided in Table S2. Phylogenetic analyses Each of the two data sets with original and expanded character sampling (Diapsid169, Diapsid189, Anapsid136, Anapsid154) was analysed using both Bayesian inference and maximum parsimony, to test whether the results were sensitive to analytic methods. Seymouriamorphs were treated as the most distant outgroup (sister to all other taxa). To facilitate comparisons with previous analyses of earlier versions of these data sets, all multistate characters were treated as unordered. However, essentially identical results were obtained when multistate characters were treated as ordered (if they formed clear linear morphoclines), an approach that has been argued to improve phylogenetic accuracy (Wiens, 2001; Grand et al., 2013). The Bayesian and parsimony analyses were also repeated for the Diapsid169 and Diapsid189 data sets with molecular scaffolds (i.e. turtle–archosaur clade) enforced, to test whether the morphological data were significantly incongruent with the molecular data (see below). Bayesian inference used MrBayes 3.2 (Ronquist et al., 2012), with the Lewis (2001) stochastic morphological model and correction for sampling of only variable characters. Model selection used stepping-stone analyses (Xie et al., 2011) to infer Bayes factors (sensu Kass and Raftery 1995), that is, twice the difference in marginal lognLikelihoods (BFKR). There was ‘decisive’ (BFKR > 10) support for inclusion of the gamma parameter for rate variation across characters for all data sets (BFKR: Diapsid169 = 15.0, Diapsid189 = 33.8, Anapsid136 = 15.68, Anapsid154 = 24.22). To ensure convergence (stationarity), each analysis consisted of four replicate runs of 50 million steps, with sampling every 5000 steps. Each of the four replicate runs consisted of one unheated and three incrementally heated chains (temperature 0.2). Convergence was reached well before the burn-in of 10 million (20%): convergence in parameters was diagnosed by essentially identical sampled distributions across runs (potential scale reduction factor ~ 1); convergence in topology was diagnosed by similar clade (split) frequencies across runs (standard deviation of clade frequencies < 0.05). A majority-rule consensus tree was constructed from the combined (post-burn-in) samples of all four runs. Exact MrBayes settings used are appended at the end of each datafile. Analyses were run on the Tizard computer grid at eResearch SA (http:// www.eresearchsa.edu.au/supercomputers). Parsimony analyses used PAUP* (Swofford, 2003), with most parsimonious trees (MPTs) found via heuristic searches involving 100 random addition searches (followed by a strict consensus, if > 1 tree), and bootstrapping involving 1000 replicates (followed by a majority-rule consensus). In order to prevent any bootstrap replicate from being trapped on islands with large numbers of MPTs, nchuck was set to 1000. Exact PAUP settings used are appended at the end of each datafile. Molecular scaffolds These analyses explicitly address the question: if one accepts that extant turtles are related to extant archosaurs, as robustly supported by genomic data (see above), where do the fossils best fit within such a molecular scaffold (Lee, 2013)? The diapsid data sets sampled sufficient extant (living) amniote lineages to investigate such interactions with molecular phylogenies: extant turtles are represented by Testudines, extant archosaurs by Archosauriformes, extant lepidosaurs by Squamata and Rhynchocephalia and extant mammals by Cynodontia. Accordingly, the Diapsid169 and Diapsid189 matrices were re-analysed with relationships among extant taxa constrained to the pattern robustly supported by genomic data: [Cynodontia (Testudines, Archosauriformes) (Squamata, Rhynchocephalia)]. All other (i.e. fossil) taxa were unconstrained and allowed to be placed by the morphological data into their optimal position within this backbone constraint. The Bayesian and parsimony analyses were repeated with such backbone constraints; all other settings remained unchanged. The nonparametric test of Templeton (1983) and Bayes factors (Kass & Raftery, 1995; see above) were used to test whether enforcing the molecular backbone constraints resulted in significantly poorer fit to the morphological data. The anapsid data sets did not sample any extant diapsid lineages (i.e. no archosaurs or lepidosaurs), so a molecular scaffold enforcing an archosaur–turtle sistergroup relationship could not be applied. Results The discussion focuses on the unordered analyses, to facilitate comparison with recent studies that have all used this approach (e.g. Lyson et al., 2010, 2013; Tsuji et al., 2012). Ordered analyses yielded very similar (often identical) trees in all analyses. In all the diapsid analyses, after ordering the characters, the Bayesian consensus trees remained identical and the parsimony consensus trees remained fully consistent (no conflicting clades; differences only consisted of one clade in the ordered analysis being unresolved in the unordered analysis or vice versa). In all the anapsid analyses, after ordering the characters, the Bayesian trees either remained identical (Anapsid154) or differed in only a single branch (Anapsid136); the parsimony consensus trees remained identical. Unless noted otherwise, all discussion and metrics refer to the unordered analyses; relevant differences in the ordered analyses are specifically noted. ª 2013 THE AUTHOR. J. EVOL. BIOL. 26 (2013) 2729–2738 JOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY ª 2013 EUROPEAN SOCIETY FOR EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY Turtle relationships The results of all (unordered) analyses are summarized in Figs 1 and 2 (topology) and Table 1 (tree statistics). Trees and support values for individual analyses are discussed below and depicted in Figs S1–S3. In the Diapsid169 and Diapsid189 data sets (Fig. 1), the position of turtles, and to a lesser extent Eunotosaurus and sauropterygians, was the most unstable across analyses; interrelationships between other taxa remained essentially unchanged. Retrofitting Eunotosaurus and other taxa to the original diapsid-focused matrix, without increasing character sampling (Diapsid169), did not alter the original basic topology: a turtle–sauropterygian clade was obtained in all analyses (without or with a molecular scaffold). However, adding 20 additional characters (Diapsid189) tended to result in a turtle–Eunotosaurus clade within parareptiles. In both anapsidfocused data sets (Anapsid136, Anapsid154), retrofitting of turtles always resulted in them being placed somewhere within parareptiles (Fig. 2). In three analyses, turtles grouped with (or within) pareiasauromorphs; in the other analyses, they grouped with Eunotosaurus. Turtles never grouped with diapsids. Diapsid169 (diapsid matrix with retrofitted Eunotosaurus) Bayesian inference and parsimony gave almost identical results (Fig. S1a), placing turtles with sauropterygians and lepidosauromorphs (Bayesian PP = 0.99, parsimony bootstrap = 28%). In particular, turtles grouped with the armoured sauropterygian Sinosaurosphargis, but with poor support (PP = 0.73, bs = 44%). Eunotosaurus was placed within a monophyletic Parareptilia (PP = 0.99, bs = 26%). Thus, addition of Eunotosaurus and additional diapsids did not greatly change topology from the original study (Li et al., 2008). Diapsid169 with molecular scaffold (constraining turtles to be sister to archosaurs among extant taxa) Bayesian inference and parsimony gave almost identical results (Fig. S1b), again retrieving a turtle–sauropterygian clade but moving it from lepidosauromorphs to archosauromorphs (pp = 0.54, bs = 22%), in accordance with the molecular scaffold. Eunotosaurus remained within a monophyletic Parareptilia (pp = 0.94, bs = 30%). Enforcing the scaffold increased tree length by only two steps (P > 0.48) and fractionally decreased the -LnL by 0.71 (BFKR = 1.42). Diapsid189 (diapsid matrix with retrofitted Eunotosaurus and 20 new informative characters) Bayesian inference and parsimony gave similar results (Fig. S2a), uniting turtles with Eunotosaurus (pp = 0.95, bs = 69%), placing both within a monophyletic 2733 Parareptilia (pp = 0.95, bs = 29%). Bayesian inference placed the Eunotosaurus–turtle clade basally within parareptiles, above millerettids, but parsimony united this clade with pareiasaurs. Sauropterygians remained with lepidosauromorphs (pp = 0.94, bs = 22%), as per the original analysis (Li et al., 2008). Thus, addition of extra characters as well as taxa was required to break up the turtle–sauropterygian clade found in the original study. Diapsid189 with molecular scaffold (constraining turtles to be sister to archosaurs among extant taxa) Bayesian inference and parsimony gave conflicting results. Bayesian inference (Fig. S2b) placed turtles alone with archosaurs (pp = 0.53; pp is < 1.0 because fossil turtles and fossil archosauromorph groups were left unconstrained). Neither sauropterygians nor Eunotosaurus fell with turtles and archosaurs: sauropterygians grouped with lepidosauromorphs (pp = 0.65) and Eunotosaurus fell within a monophyletic Parareptilia (pp = 0.99). In contrast, parsimony (Fig. S2c) united turtles, Eunotosaurus and sauropterygians (bs = 57%) and placed this clade with archosauromorphs (bs = 22%). Enforcing the scaffold increased tree length by only six steps (P > 0.41) and increased the -LnL by 4.9 (BFKR = 9.8; a ‘strong’ but not ‘decisive’ decrease in fit [sensu Kass and Raftery (1995)]. Anapsid136 (anapsid matrix with retrofitted turtles) Bayesian inference and parsimony gave similar results (Fig. S3a), either grouping turtles as sister to pareiasaurs and nycteroleterids (Bayesian; pp = 0.61) or to pareiasaurs alone (parsimony; bs = 54); the latter topology was also retrieved under Bayesian inference when characters were ordered (pp = 0.55). Eunotosaurus grouped with millerettids (pp = 0.34, bs = 56%) and together formed the basal parareptile clade, not particularly close to turtles. Anapsid154 (anapsid matrix with retrofitted turtles and 18 additional characters) Bayesian inference and parsimony gave conflicting results. Bayesian inference (Fig. S3b) now grouped turtles with Eunotosaurus (Bayesian; pp = 0.79) and placed this clade with millerettids basally within parareptiles. Parsimony continued to unite turtles with pareiasaurs (Fig. S3c), but the newly added characters reduced the support for this clade (bs = 32%). Discussion The variable position of turtles (and to a lesser extent Eunotosaurus) across these analyses contrasts with the ª 2013 THE AUTHOR. J. EVOL. BIOL. 26 (2013) 2729–2738 JOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY ª 2013 EUROPEAN SOCIETY FOR EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY 2734 M. S. Y. LEE (a) Millerettidae Ankyromorpha Archosauromorpha Lepidosauromorpha (pareiasaurs, procolophonoids etc) (crocodylians, dinosaurs, birds etc) (squamates, rhynchocephalians etc) 1 2 Parareptilia Stem 3 a psid Dia Diapsida (crown) (b) 1 2 3 Fig. 1 The phylogenetic results when Eunotosaurus is retrofitted to an analysis focused on diapsid reptiles and turtles (matrix modified from Li et al. (2008) and Lyson et al. (2013)). (a) Schematic phylogeny showing three alternative positions for turtles, Eunotosaurus and sauropterygians: with ankyromorph anapsids, with archosauromorph diapsids and with lepidosauromorph diapsids. (b) Table showing the actual position(s) of turtles, Eunotosaurus and sauropterygians in 8 (2 9 2 9 2) different analyses: the original (Diapsid169) and expanded (Diapsid189) data set, under Bayesian inference (BI) and maximum parsimony (MP), without and with a molecular scaffold. Eunotosaurus falls with parareptiles in most analyses, but the position of turtles and sauropterygians is more variable. ª 2013 THE AUTHOR. J. EVOL. BIOL. 26 (2013) 2729–2738 JOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY ª 2013 EUROPEAN SOCIETY FOR EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY Turtle relationships 2735 Millerettidae Procolophonoidea (a) Pareiasauromorpha Diapsida (pareiasaurs, nycteroleters etc) (archosauromorphs lepidosauromorphs etc) 1 Diapsida 2 3 Ankyramorpha Parareptilia (b) 1 2 3 Fig. 2 The phylogenetic results when turtles are retrofitted to an analysis focused on parareptiles (matrix modified from Tsuji et al., 2012 and Lyson et al., 2010). (a) Schematic phylogeny showing three alternative positions for turtles and Eunotosaurus: with millerettid parareptiles, with pareiasauromorph (ankyromorph) parareptiles and with diapsids. (b) Table showing the actual position(s) of turtles and Eunotosaurus and sauropterygians in four different analyses: the original (Anapsid136) and expanded (Anapsid154) data set, under Bayesian inference (BI) and maximum parsimony (MP). There was insufficient sampling of diapsids to employ a molecular scaffold. Eunotosaurus falls with parareptiles in all analyses; the position of turtles varies, but they always fall within parareptiles. relatively stable position of the remaining amniote taxa, including other potential relatives of turtles. Sauropterygians always nest within diapsids, and procolophonids and pareiasaurs always nest within parareptiles. These analyses therefore highlight the particularly unstable position of turtles within amniote phylogeny (Harris ª 2013 THE AUTHOR. J. EVOL. BIOL. 26 (2013) 2729–2738 JOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY ª 2013 EUROPEAN SOCIETY FOR EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY 2736 M. S. Y. LEE Table 1 Tree statistics from analyses of all data sets. Note that adding a molecular scaffold to either the Diapsid169 or the Diapsid189 (constraining turtles to be sister to archosaurs among extant taxa) does not greatly decrease the fit of the morphological data: the Bayesian harmonic mean – LnL, and the parsimony tree length barely increase; these changes are not statistically significant (see main text). Data set analysed Bayesian inference (harmonic mean – LnL) Parsimony (length & number of trees) Diapsid169 Diapsid169 (with scaffold) Diapsid189 Diapsid189 (with scaffold) Anapsid136 Anapsid154 2529.87 2529.16 869; 15 trees 871; 15 trees 2693.00 2697.92 906; 2 trees 912; 5 trees 1685.58 1763.28 497; 4 trees 520; 4 trees et al., 2007) and also some instability of Eunotosaurus. There is often weak support for any particular hypothesis of turtle affinities, but certain important patterns are revealed. First, the hypothesis that turtles are related to parareptiles, first proposed cladistically over two decades ago (Reisz & Laurin, 1991) and recently revived (Carroll, 2013; Lyson et al., 2013), is at least as strongly supported as the currently dominant assumption of diapsid affinities (e.g. Li et al., 2008; Ruta et al., 2011). Turtles nest within parareptiles in all analyses of the anapsid-focused data set and in some analyses of the diapsid-focused data set (i.e. analyses of Diapsid189 without a molecular scaffold). Thus, the suggestion that parareptile affinities of turtles can now be abandoned (Tsuji et al., 2012) might be premature. Different analytic approaches also yield slightly different topologies. Bayesian inference retrieves a wide range of positions for turtles (varying across all reptiles in the diapsidfocused data sets and varying across parareptiles in the anapsid-focused data sets). Parsimony, in contrast, tends to specifically support a position for turtles near pareiasauromorphs. Parsimony analyses of the Anapsid136, Anapsid154 data sets retrieve turtles and pareiasaurs as sister groups (to the exclusion of all other taxa, including Eunotosaurus), whereas maximum parsimony (MP) analysis of the Diapsid189 matrix places pareiasaurs as sister to the Eunotosaurus–turtle clade (see Fig. S3 in Lyson et al., 2013). In the parsimony analysis of the full anapsid-focused data set (Anapsid154), pareiasaurs and turtles are united by 8 unambiguous (optimization-independent) synapomorphies, of which the most notable are frontal excluded from orbit (character 2), 20 or fewer presacrals (89), supinator process indistinct (108), reduced manual (113) and pedal (128) phalangeal formula, and dermal armour (130; present in turtles as peripheral bones, regardless of the homologies of other shell elements). In the parsimony analysis of the full diapsid-focused data set (Diapsid189), pareiasaurs are united with turtles and Eunotosaurus via 7 unambiguous synapomorphies, including choana (character 1) and suborbital foramen (74) positioned medially, wide frontal (26), 20 or fewer presacrals (97), chevrons articulating with 1 centrum, rather than intercentral (112), enclosed ectepicondylar foramen (127). Second, the molecular scaffold analyses (enforcing turtles+archosaurs) reveal less conflict between the genomic and morphological data than often proposed (e.g. Lyson et al., 2010; Hedges, 2012). Enforcing a turtle–archosaur clade to the Diapsid169 and Diapsid189 matrices barely decreases fit in either parsimony or Bayesian analyses (Table 1); thus, the morphological data cannot refute (and thus is consistent with) the genomic evidence. However, enforcing this turtle– archosaur clade does result in a highly unstable position for Eunotosaurus. Eunotosaurus remains with parareptiles in most ‘scaffolded’ analyses, but one analysis places Eunotosaurus as sister to turtles within the turtle–archosaur clade. This raises the possibility that turtles could be most closely related to a taxon traditionally considered a ‘parareptile’ and also simultaneously have archosaurs as their extant sister group. This result in turn raises the possibility that other reptiles traditionally considered ‘parareptiles’ (e.g. millerettids, pareiasaurs and procolophonids) could also occupy a similar position, if new studies uncover sufficient synapomorphies with turtles and/or Eunotosaurus. The anapsid analyses consistently reveal a signal linking turtles with pareiasaurs and procolophonids, and addition of these characters to the diapsid data sets might shift the affinities of these taxa. Furthermore, many parareptiles have at least a lower temporal fenestra (Modesto et al., 2009), which might be primitive for parareptiles or crown amniotes (Pi~ neiro et al., 2012). It is worth highlighting that if turtles nest within archosauromorphs, they must have secondarily closed both upper and lower temporal fenestrae at some stage. This could have happened prior to, coincident with, or subsequent to, the acquisition of the shell; currently known basal turtle fossils (and Eunotosaurus) have both anapsid skulls and (most) shell characters and thus do not elucidate the relative order of character acquisition. If the skull openings closed before the shell evolved, this would entail the existence of unarmoured reptiles with varying reductions in skull fenestration along the turtle stem (and thus within Archosauromorpha). Retrofitting taxa to existing morphological data matrices is a necessarily common practice in systematics, which can be problematic (undersampling of relevant characters) as well as illuminating (character selection cannot be biased by preconceptions about the added taxon). Adding Eunotosaurus to diapsid analyses, ª 2013 THE AUTHOR. J. EVOL. BIOL. 26 (2013) 2729–2738 JOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY ª 2013 EUROPEAN SOCIETY FOR EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY Turtle relationships and turtles to anapsid analyses, suggests that there is phylogenetic signal uniting turtles with different groups of parareptiles, which is revealed by even an apparently disinterested survey of the character evidence. The original diapsid matrix (Diapsid169) did not consider Eunotosaurus: it is thus unlikely that preconceptions about the position of Eunotosaurus biased the selection and coding of the 169 characters used in this study. The placement of Eunotosaurus within parareptiles in all analyses of Diapsid169 matrix presumably reflects genuine phylogenetic signal rather than biased character selection. In that matrix, however, turtles remain embedded within diapsids: addition of extra characters shared by turtles and Eunotosaurus (Diapsid189) moves turtles to group with Eunotosaurus inside parareptiles. Similarly, the original anapsid-focused matrix (Anapsid136) was aimed at resolving the relationships between parareptiles, and explicitly ignored turtles (Tsuji et al., 2012). Nevertheless, when turtles were added to this data set, they emerged within parareptiles, under both Bayesian inference and parsimony (see also Lyson et al., 2010). Within parareptiles, however, turtles group with ankyromorphs (pareiasaurs and procolophonids), rather than Eunotosaurus. Addition of extra characters (Anapsid154) causes turtles to group with Eunotosaurus under Bayesian inference, but turtles still group with pareiasaurs and procolophonids under parsimony. The persistent grouping of turtles with pareiasaurs and procolophonids is notable, given that added characters (mostly similarities between Eunotosaurus and turtles) are potentially biased against this relationship. However, the support for all these hypotheses is relatively weak (Figs S1–S3), as measured by posterior probabilities (Bayesian inference) or bootstrap (parsimony). Retrofitting phylogenies therefore does not conclusively resolve the position of turtles with respect to their putative fossil relatives. However, it reveals that the morphological data cannot refute the genomic evidence that turtles are most closely related to archosaurs among extant taxa – regardless of the exact position of Eunotosaurus, pareiasaurs and procolophonids. 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Table S2 Diapsid189 and Anapsid154 data sets, with MrBayes and PAUP* commands. (Diapsid169 and Anapsid136 data sets can be derived from these by excluding characters). Received 18 July 2013; accepted 15 September 2013 ª 2013 THE AUTHOR. J. EVOL. BIOL. 26 (2013) 2729–2738 JOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY ª 2013 EUROPEAN SOCIETY FOR EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY
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