Long term projections
of Hampshire’s
demographic future
_______
2008 2026
Summary
The anticipated demographic trends projected for Hampshire over the next 18 years
include:
•
A rise in the population of Hampshire by almost 128,000 people to 1,836,000
by 2026.
•
The number of dwellings is projected to increase by almost 119,000 to
857,500 dwellings by 2026.
•
115,600 more households projected for Hampshire in 2026, whilst average
household size is projected to fall from 2.33 to 2.16 people per household.
•
A change in the type of households that Hampshire’s population occupies,
with a continued rise in the percentage of one person and cohabiting
households coupled with fewer married households.
•
The population of Hampshire is projected to age during the period with more
people occupying the older age groups and fewer children.
•
The working age population is projected to see a small decline in percentage
terms, despite state pensionable age for women increasing to that of men by
2026.
•
Variation is projected between Hampshire’s districts, though they are largely
projected to follow Hampshire’s trends.
o The percentage change amongst those aged 85 and over is the source
of most variation across the districts.
o The change in the percentage of the population of working age shows
least variation between each district.
_____
Introduction
This summary profile was constructed using Hampshire County Council’s Long Term
Population Projections published in spring 2009. These Long Term Projections have
been produced using the Chelmer model, developed by the Population and Housing
Research Group at Anglia Ruskin University. The projections provide estimates of the
population of Hampshire from 2001-2026 and are available for all districts broken
down by age, gender and household type. The projections can be found at the
following location.
http://www3.hants.gov.uk/planning/factsandfigures/population-statistics.htm
This profile provides a graphical overview of the changes in population and dwellings
projected to take place between 2008 and 2026 in Hampshire, if assumptions
regarding dwelling numbers as well as births, deaths and migration were to come to
fruition. The population is analysed by age and sex, along with working age and
dependent populations. More detailed information regarding natural change and
household type is also presented. Much of this analysis is done at both the county and
district level.
The main assumption underpinning these projections is that the number of dwellings
built between 2006 and 2026 in each district will be consistent with the overall
numbers put forward in the South East Plan. The period 2001-2008 is based on actual
dwelling completions.
All other data incorporated into the projections is the most up to date available.
Please note Hampshire in this report should be taken to refer to the combined
administrative areas of Hampshire County Council, Portsmouth City Council, and
Southampton City Council.
Hampshire Trends
Population
Figure 1: Hampshire: Total Population 2008-2026
1,850,000
Number of people
1,800,000
1,750,000
1,700,000
1,650,000
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
1,600,000
Year
The total population of Hampshire is projected to rise each year from 1,708,100 in
2008 to 1,836,000 in 2026 (Figure 1).
Dwellings
Figure 2: Hampshire: Number of Dwellings, 2008-2026
880,000
860,000
Number of Dwellings
840,000
820,000
800,000
780,000
760,000
740,000
720,000
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
700,000
Year
Figure 2 shows the rise in the total number of dwellings across Hampshire as a result
of the new dwelling figures in the South East Plan. The number of dwellings in
Hampshire is projected to increase year on year from 738,700 in 2008 to 857,500 in
2026.
Households
Figure 3: Hampshire: Number of Households, 2008-2026
840,000
820,000
Number of Households
800,000
780,000
760,000
740,000
720,000
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
700,000
Partly as a result of the dwelling proposals, it is projected that the number of
households 1 in Hampshire will increase in each year from 2008 (717,600 households)
to 2026 (833,200 households) (Figure 3).
1
A household is an individual or group of people living in the same dwelling and sharing either living
accommodation or one meal a day. The number of households tends to be lower than the number of
dwellings since not all dwellings contain households; for example, some are vacant or second
residences. However, a small minority do contain multiple households.
Average Household Size
Figure 4: Hampshire: Average Household Size, Number of Dwellings and
Households, 2008-2026
900,000
2.35
850,000
800,000
2.25
750,000
700,000
2.20
650,000
2.15
600,000
Average Household Size
Number of Households and Dwellings
2.30
2.10
550,000
2.05
500,000
Dwellings
Households
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2.00
2008
450,000
Average Household Size
2
Figure 4 shows that average household size in Hampshire is projected to decline
between 2008 and 2026, from 2.33 to 2.16 people per household. This decline is
projected as a result of changing household compositions such as increasing family
breakdowns, smaller desired family sizes, and more people choosing to live alone. It
is set against the rises projected in the population and number of households.
2
Average Household Size refers to the average number of people that live in a household and is
obtained by dividing the total private household population by the number of households.
Household Type
The number of households is projected to increase by 115,600 over the period.
However, this rise is not distributed evenly across all types of household. The number
of married couple households is projected to decline over the period by 12,900, while
the number of one person households is projected to rise by 90,300 and cohabiting
couple households by 31,800 (Figure 5).
Figure 5: Hampshire: Number of Households in Each Household Type, 2008, 2016,
2021 and 2026
350,000
Number of Households
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Married Couple
Households
Lone Parent
Households
One Person
Households
Cohabiting Couple
Households
Household Type
2008
2016
2021
2026
Other Households
The percentage of all households occupied by married couples is projected to decline
in each year, from 45.6 % of all households in 2008 to 37.7 % in 2026 (Figure 6).
Very small declines (less than 1 %) are projected for lone parent households and other
households. At the same time, the percentage of one person households is projected to
rise and become almost equal to the percentage of married couple households by 2026
(from 30.7 % to 37.3 %.). The percentage of cohabiting couple households is also
estimated to increase, from 11.6 % in 2008 to 13.8 % in 2026.
Figure 6: Hampshire: Percentage of Households in Each Household Type, 2008,
2016, 2021 and 2026
100%
90%
Percentage of Household Type
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2008
2016
2021
2026
Year
Married Couple Households
Lone Parent Households
Cohabiting Couple Households
Other Households
One Person Households
Population by Age and Sex
The population pyramids shown in Figures 7a to 7d illustrate the estimated age and
sex structure of Hampshire in 2008 and that projected for 2016, 2021 and 2026. The
pyramids illustrate the population ageing over time as more people are projected to
occupy the older age groups. In fact, the majority of Hampshire’s growth over the
period is projected to occur amongst those aged 45 years and older. These changes are
caused by sustained low fertility and continued improvements in mortality rates.
Also visible are the post-war and 1960’s baby booms moving through the age
structure over the period and the large student populations of Portsmouth and
Southampton in the young adult age groups.
Once the baby boomers have moved up into the older ages, it is projected that the
birth cohorts that follow will be more stable, resulting in a more rectangular
population pyramid.
Figure 7a: Hampshire: Population Pyramid, 2008
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
Age Groups
55-59
50-54
45-49
Females
Males
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Percentage of the Population
Figure 7b: Hampshire: Population Pyramid, 2016
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
Age Groups
55-59
50-54
45-49
Females
Males
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
Percentage of the Population
2
3
4
5
Figure 7c: Hampshire: Population Pyramid, 2021
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
Age Groups
55-59
50-54
45-49
Females
Males
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Percentage of the Population
Figure 7d: Hampshire: Population Pyramid, 2026
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
Age Groups
55-59
50-54
45-49
Females
Males
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
Percentage of the Population
2
3
4
5
Working Age and Dependent Populations
Figure 8 shows the changes over the projected period in the population broken down
into three broad age groups – children; those of working age; and those of state
pensionable age 3 .
Both the child and working age populations are projected to decline slightly over the
period. The child population from 18.4 % in 2008 to 17.7 % in 2026 and the working
age population from 62.0 % to 60.2 % respectively. Meanwhile the percentage of
people of state pensionable age is projected to increase, from 19.6 % to 22.1 % by
2026, despite the increase in state pensionable age for women.
Figure 8: Hampshire: Percentage of the Population by Broad Age Groups, 2008 and
2026
Percentage of the Total Population
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2008
Dependent Children
3
2026
Working Age
State Pensionable Age
Between 2008 and 2026 state pensionable age will rise from 60 years and over for women and 65
years and over for men, to 65 years and over for both sexes. This change in state pensionable age is
incorporated into these results.
Changes in the age distribution represented by dependency ratios are shown in Table
1. The Dependency Ratio represents the ratio of the non-working age population to
those of working age. It provides a basis for identifying the number of non-working
age people per 100 of working age 4 .
The Total Dependency Ratio is projected to rise in Hampshire between 2008 and
2026. Looking at the independent contributions from the old and the young, Table 1
indicates that the increase in the old age population is what is driving this overall rise,
such that by 2026 there are estimated to be 25 % more elderly people than young
people in Hampshire.
Table 1: Total, Child and Old Age Dependency Ratios and the Ageing Index,
Hampshire, 2008 and 2026
2008
2026
4
Total
Dependency
Ratio
61
66
Child
Dependency
Ratio
30
29
Old Age
Dependency
Ratio
32
37
Ageing
Index
1.07
1.25
The Total Dependency Ratio is the ratio of children and those of state pensionable age to the working
age population (defined as 16-59 years for females and 16-64 years for males in 2008 and 16-64 years
for all in 2026).
The Child Dependency Ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-15 years to the working age
population.
The Old Age Dependency Ratio is the population aged 60+ years for females and 65+ years for males
in 2008 and 65 + years for all in 2026 against the working age population.
The Ageing Index is the ratio of the state pensionable aged population (defined above for 2008 and
2026) to the child population.
Births and Deaths
Figure 9: Hampshire: Number of Births and Deaths, 2008-2026
22000
Number of Births and Deaths
20000
18000
Births
Deaths
16000
14000
12000
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
10000
Between 2008 and 2026 there are projected to be 357,500 births in Hampshire and
266,700 deaths. This is projected to lead to a rise in the population due to natural
increase 5 of 90,700 people. Figure 9 shows that over the period the number of births
is projected to decline slightly, whilst the number of deaths increases during the
second half of the projected period. The rise in the number of deaths can be attributed
to the large cohorts of the post war baby boom generation entering the oldest age
groups where most deaths occur. However, the number of births in the population is
still projected to exceed the number of deaths.
5
Natural increase occurs when there is an excess of births over deaths in a population.
Hampshire District Trends
Total Population
Figure 10: Hampshire: Total Population in Each District, 2008, 2016, 2021, and
2026
250,000
Number of people
200,000
2008
2016
2021
2026
150,000
100,000
50,000
Winchester
Test Valley
Rushmoor
New Forest
Havant
Hart
Gosport
Fareham
Eastleigh
East
Hampshire
Basingstoke
and Deane
Southampton
Portsmouth
0
The population growth projected in Hampshire varies by district, as illustrated in
Figure 10, and largely reflects the varying distributions of the proposed new
dwellings. Between 2008 and 2026, eleven of the thirteen districts are projected to see
their population increase. 18.2 % of Hampshire’s population growth is projected to
occur in Basingstoke and Deane and 17.7 % in Winchester, where the populations are
estimated to rise by 23,300 and 22,700 respectively. A further 17 % of the county’s
growth is projected to occur in Fareham, with an increase from 110,900 to 132,400.
Havant is projected to see a rise in its population between 2008 and 2016; however, a
decline of 1,400 people is anticipated between 2016 and 2026. The New Forest and
Gosport are projected to experience declines in their population between 2008 and
2026, of approximately 7,000 and 3,000 people respectively.
Dwellings
The dwelling figures reflect those put forward in the South East Plan. As such, all of
Hampshire’s thirteen districts are projected to experience a rise in their number of
dwellings between 2008 and 2026 (Figure 11). Basingstoke and Deane is projected to
increase its number of dwellings from 69,100 to 85,900, accounting for 14 % of the
county’s rise in dwellings. A further 12 % of this rise in dwellings is projected to
occur in Southampton and 11 % in Winchester, Portsmouth, and Fareham.
Figure 11: Hampshire: Number of Dwellings in Each District, 2007, 2016, 2021 and
2026
120,000
80,000
2008
2016
2021
2026
60,000
40,000
20,000
Winchester
Test Valley
Rushmoor
New Forest
Havant
Hart
Gosport
Fareham
Eastleigh
East
Hampshire
Basingstoke
and Deane
Southampton
0
Portsmouth
Number of dwellings
100,000
Households
The number of households is projected to rise in all of Hampshire’s districts (Figure
12), with Basingstoke and Deane, Southampton, Portsmouth, Winchester, and
Fareham, i.e. those districts with the largest dwelling increases, set to experience the
biggest increases in household numbers.
Figure 12: Hampshire: Number of Households in Each District, 2008, 2016, 2021
and 2026
120000
80000
2008
2016
2021
2026
60000
40000
20000
Winchester
Test Valley
Rushmoor
New Forest
Havant
Hart
Gosport
Fareham
Eastleigh
East Hampshire
Basingstoke and
Deane
Southampton
0
Portsmouth
Number of Households
100000
Average Household Size
Figure 13 shows that in all of Hampshire’s districts, average household size is
projected to decline between 2008 and 2026. In Rushmoor on average there are
estimated to be 2.47 people per household in 2008, the highest number of any district.
Rushmoor is projected to keep its place at the top with 2.29 people per household by
2026. Southampton contains the lowest number of people per household with 2.24 in
2008 (lower than Rushmoor’s projected 2026 figure), falling to 2.05 by 2026.
Figure 13: Hampshire: Average Household Size for Each District, 2008, 2016, 2021,
and 2026
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.1
2
1.9
2008
2016
2021
2026
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
Hampshire
Winchester
Test Valley
Rushmoor
New Forest
Havant
Hart
Gosport
Fareham
Eastleigh
East Hampshire
Basingstoke and
Deane
Southampton
1
Portsmouth
Average Household Size
2.2
Household Type
Figure 14: Hampshire: Change in the Number of Households by Household Type,
2008 – 2026
Change in the Number of Households
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
-4,000
Winchester
Test Valley
Rushmoor
New Forest
Havant
Hart
Gosport
Fareham
Eastleigh
East Hampshire
Basingstoke
and Deane
Southampton
Portsmouth
-6,000
District
Married Couple Households
Cohabiting Couple Households
Lone Parent Households
Other Households
One Person Households
Figure 14 shows the projected change in the number of households in each type
between 2008 and 2026. Most districts are projected to see a decline in married
couple households over the period. The largest decline projected is 4,500 households
in the New Forest.
All districts are projected to see a large increase in the number of one person and
cohabiting couple households. Southampton and Basingstoke and Deane are both
projected to see the largest rises in one person households between 2008 and 2026.
A small change in the number of lone parent and other households is projected in each
district, with variation in whether this change is positive or negative.
Pre-School Age Population
Figure 15: Hampshire: Percentage of the Total Population that is of Pre-School Age
(0-4 years), for Each District, 2008, 2016, 2021 and 2026
Percentage of the Total Population
8
7
6
5
2008
2016
2021
2026
4
3
2
1
Hampshire
Winchester
Test Valley
Rushmoor
New Forest
Havant
Hart
Gosport
Fareham
Eastleigh
East
Hampshire
Basingstoke
and Deane
Southampton
Portsmouth
0
Figure 15 shows the percentage of the population in each district that is pre-school
aged (0-4 years). The percentage aged 0-4 years varies from 4.6 % to 6.8 % in 2008.
Twelve of Hampshire’s thirteen districts are projected to see a decline in the
proportion of their population that is pre-school aged by 2026, although eight of these
twelve are projected to see a very marginal increase during the first half of the
projection period. In contrast, Fareham is projected to see an increase of 3.6 %
between 2008 and 2026. The largest decline is projected to occur in the New Forest,
where the proportion of the population aged 0-4 years is estimated to decrease by 11.8
%.
School Age Population
Figure 16: Hampshire: Percentage of the Total Population that is of School Age (515 years), for Each District, 2008, 2016, 2021 and 2026
14
12
10
2008
2016
2021
2026
8
6
4
2
Hampshire
Winchester
Test Valley
Rushmoor
New Forest
Havant
Hart
Gosport
Fareham
Eastleigh
East
Hampshire
Basingstoke
and Deane
Southampton
0
Portsmouth
Percentage of the Total Population
16
Figure 16 shows the percentage of the population in each district that is school aged
(5-15 years). The percentage aged 5-15 varies from 11.2 % to 13.8 % in 2008. Eleven
of the thirteen districts are projected to see a decline in the proportion of their
population that is school aged between 2008 and 2026, whilst Winchester is projected
to see a rise of 1.3 % and Southampton 0.4 %.
Working Age Population
In 2008 between 56-67 % of the population within each district were estimated to be
of working age (Figure 17). Working age being those aged 16-59 years for females
and 16-64 years for males in 2008. By 2026, the state pensionable age will be equal
for males and females, meaning that women aged 60-64 in 2026 are included in the
working age group. Even with this change in state pensionable age, the working age
population is estimated to decline between 2008 and 2026 in four districts. Across
Hampshire as a whole, the number of people of working age is projected to increase
by 47,200, which can be attributed to the change in state pensionable age.
The largest decrease in the number of people of working age is projected in the New
Forest, with 10,250 people between 2008 and 2026, along with decreases of 4,600 in
Gosport, 1,900 in Hart and 650 in Havant. In contrast, areas where new dwelling
numbers are greatest are projected to see increases in the number of people of
working age. Basingstoke and Deane is projected to see the largest increase in the
working age population with 12,150 people. Followed by Fareham with 11,700 and
Winchester with 11,400.
The New Forest and Havant’s working age populations account for a much lower
proportion of the total population than is the case for Hampshire as a whole. This
trend is projected to continue to 2026, with 51.8 % of the New Forest population
projected to be of working age compared to 60.2 % of Hampshire’s population as a
whole.
70
60
50
40
2008
2026
30
20
10
Hampshire
Winchester
Test Valley
Rushmoor
New Forest
Havant
Hart
Gosport
Fareham
Eastleigh
East Hampshire
Basingstoke and Deane
Southampton
0
Portsmouth
Percentage of the Total Population
Figure 17: Hampshire: Percentage of the Total Population that is of Working Age, for
Each District, 2008 and 2026
State Pensionable Age
All districts within Hampshire are projected to see a rise in the percentage of their
population that is over state pensionable age, as shown in Figure 18. It is anticipated
that Gosport will see a 24 % increase in the percentage of its population that is of state
pensionable age over the period and Hart a 22 % increase. This compares to a 13 %
increase across Hampshire as a whole. The smallest proportional increases are due to
occur in Fareham, Portsmouth, Southampton, and Winchester, though increases are
still projected to be 5 % or more.
The New Forest has the highest proportion of the population above state pensionable
age in 2008 (27.8 %) as well as those projected in 2026 (33.6 %), with an increase of
7,500 people. Basingstoke and Deane is projected to see the largest absolute rise in
the state pensionable age population, with 8,140 more people in this age group by
2026.
Figure 18: Hampshire: Percentage of the Population that is of State Pensionable Age,
for Each District, 2008 and 2026
35
30
25
2008
2026
20
15
10
5
Hampshire
Winchester
Test Valley
Rushmoor
New Forest
Havant
Hart
Gosport
Fareham
Eastleigh
East
Hampshire
Basingstoke
and Deane
Southampton
0
Portsmouth
Percentage of the Total Population
40
The Very Old
Figure 19: Hampshire: Percentage of the Population that is Very Old (85 years and
over), for Each District, 2008, 2016, 2021, and 2026
Percentage of the Total Population
8
7
6
5
2008
2016
4
2021
2026
3
2
1
Hampshire
Winchester
Test Valley
Rushmoor
New Forest
Havant
Hart
Gosport
Fareham
Eastleigh
East
Hampshire
Basingstoke
and Deane
Southampton
Portsmouth
0
When looking at the very old (aged 85 and over) this trend of an ageing population
continues (Figure 19), with all of the thirteen districts projected to experience an
increase in the percentage of their population aged 85 years and over. Hart is
projected see a rise of 110 % in the percentage of its population aged 85 and over to
4.3 % by 2026.
The New Forest is estimated to remain the district with the highest proportion of its
population aged 85 and over at 7.3 % in 2026 and see the largest increase in the
number of its residents that fall into this age group, increasing from 7,250 to 12,000
people. Rushmoor is projected to remain the district with the smallest population aged
85 and over, although this percentage is still projected to rise by 62 % and from 1,600
to 2,700 people over the period.
Dependency Ratios
100
90
80
70
60
2008
50
2026
40
30
20
10
Hampshire
Winchester
Test Valley
Rushmoor
New Forest
Havant
Hart
Gosport
Fareham
Eastleigh
East
Hampshire
Basingstoke
and Deane
Southampton
0
Portsmouth
Number of Dependents per 100 People of Working Age
Figure 20: Hampshire: Change in Total Dependency Ratios, for Each District, 2008
and 2026
All districts are set to see a rise in their total dependency ratios over the projected
period (Figure 20). The New Forest is likely to remain the district with the highest
total dependency ratio, rising from 80 per 100 people of working age in 2008 to 93 in
2026. Southampton is projected to maintain its position as the district with the
smallest total dependency ratio, rising from 50 to 52 between 2008 and 2026.
250
200
2008
2026
150
100
Hampshire
Winchester
Test Valley
Rushmoor
New Forest
Havant
Hart
Gosport
Fareham
Eastleigh
East
Hampshire
Basingstoke
and Deane
Southampton
50
Portsmouth
Number of older people per 100 children
Figure 21: Hampshire: Change in the Ageing Index, for Each District, 2008, 2016,
2021 and 2026
In all districts, the growth projected in the dependent population is attributable to a
rise in the number of older people. Figure 21 shows the change over the projected
period in the Ageing Index (the number of old people to every 100 children (see
footnote 4)). All districts are projected to see a rise in the number of elderly people in
relation to the young. The New Forest has the largest number of old people to young
with an estimated 167 to every 100 children in 2008, rising to close to 230 by 2026.
Conversely, the number of older people in Rushmoor is projected to remain fewer
than the number of children over the projected period, though the difference will
decline substantially.
Births and Deaths
Figure 22: Hampshire: Crude Birth Rate, for Each District, 2008, 2016, 2021 and
2026
Rate (Number of Births per 1,000 Population)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
2008
2016
2021
Hampshire
Winchester
Test Valley
Rushmoor
New Forest
Havant
Hart
Gosport
Fareham
Eastleigh
East Hants
Basingstoke and
Deane
Southampton
Portsmouth
0
2026
Figure 22 shows the projected change in the Crude Birth Rate 6 for each of
Hampshire’s districts over the period. The Crude Birth rate varies across the districts
with Rushmoor having considerably more births per 1,000 population than Fareham
or the New Forest. This reflects the younger age structure of Rushmoor and the older
age structure of the New Forest.
6
The Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is the number of births per 1,000 people in the population, and the Crude
Death Rate is the number of deaths per 1,000 people in the population. These rates are influenced by
the age structure of the population. For example, a population with a large number of women of
childbearing ages will have a higher CBR than another population of exactly the same total size but
with an older population structure. Meanwhile that population is likely to have a higher Crude Death
Rate due to its older population structure.
70.0
60.0
50.0
2008
2016
2021
2026
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
Hampshire
Winchester
Test Valley
Rushmoor
New Forest
Havant
Hart
Gosport
Fareham
Eastleigh
East Hants
Basingstoke and
Deane
Southampton
0.0
Portsmouth
Rate( Number of Births per 1,000 Female Population Aged 16-49
Years)
Figure 23: Hampshire: General Fertility Rate, for Each District, 2008, 2016, 2021
and 2026
District
The General Fertility Rate (GFR) 7 shown in Figure 23 gives a similar picture to that
of the Crude Birth Rate, with fewer births per 1,000 females of childbearing ages in
Fareham, New Forest, and Winchester. A higher GFR is projected in Basingstoke and
Deane, Gosport and Rushmoor, which is estimated to have more than 56 births per
1,000 females of childbearing ages in all the projection years.
Figure 24 illustrates the change in projected Crude Death Rates over the period and
shows that the New Forest and Havant are estimated to experience more deaths per
1,000 population than the other districts, while Hart and Rushmoor have lower rates.
The New Forest is estimated to have almost 12 deaths per 1,000 members of the
population in all the projected years – reflecting its older population structure.
7
General Fertility Rate (GFR) is the number of live births in a population per 1,000 females of
childbearing age (15 to 49 years). This rate is a better comparative measure as it relates the births to
women of childbearing age. However, it is still influenced to some degree by the age structure of the
population, in particular the age structure of the women of childbearing ages.
Hampshire
Winchester
Test Valley
Rushmoor
New Forest
Havant
Hart
Gosport
Fareham
Eastleigh
East Hants
Basingstoke and
Deane
Southampton
Portsmouth
Rate (Number of Deaths per 1,000 Population)
Figure 24: Hampshire: Crude Death Rate, for Each District, 2008, 2016, 2021 and
2026
14
12
10
8
6
2008
2016
2021
2026
4
2
0