Potato Consumer Trends
Rebecca Hughes
Consumer Insight Analyst, AHDB
14 Jan 2016
Agenda
• Wider consumer trends and how
they impact on potatoes
• Consumer attitudes to potatoes
• Trends in potato shopper purchases
Wider consumer
trends
Long-term changes to the consumer landscape
Consumers aged over 60 are expected to account for
over a third
The proportion of one-person households almost
of the population by 2027
doubled
between 1971 and 1998
The proportion of foreign-born population
doubled
between 1993 and 2013
Households spend less time preparing and
cooking meals
Top 3 meals & average prep time
Time taken to prepare & cook main meal
10 mins
1. Sandwich
24 mins
1980
2015
60
31
minutes
minutes
2. Pizza
76 mins
3. Roast Dinner
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Usage
Kantar Worldpanel Usage; 52 w/e 29 March ‘15
Individual Meal Occasions (m)
In Home Lunch, Teatime & Evening Meal (GB Plate)
Shopper sentiment has improved recently
Real earnings
Consumer confidence
Focus on cost
National Statistics/nVision
European Commission/nVision
IGD ShopperVista
But there’s some shopping habits that are here to
stay
Price conscious, time-poor shoppers are expected to use convenience, discounters and
online shops more.
+£6.4bn
+£10.5bn
+£8.3bn
-£2.1bn
+£0.3bn
-£0.3bn
Source: IGD Retail Analysis June 2015
The rise of the Hard Discounters
Aldi and Lidl now account for 10% of
grocery market share, compared to
8% a year ago.
Falling food prices reflect the impact
of Aldi and Lidl’s pricing and the
market’s competitive response.
Source: Kantar Worldpanel / IGD
Consumer attitudes
to potatoes
Two thirds of shoppers claim versatility is the best aspect of fresh
potatoes.
Pros and cons
of buying fresh
potatoes
Best Aspects
Off-putting aspects
Versatile/go with most
things I eat
Too heavy to carry
65%
21%
home
Take too long to
prepare
Like their taste
15%
54%
Easy to prepare
Too expensive
40%
12%
Don’t cost
much
Healthy/
nutritious
34%
27%
Don’t take
long to
prepare
20%
Source: AHDB Consumer Tracker conducted by YouGov
July 2015
Difficult to
prepare
5%
Not
healthy/
nutritious
5%
Base: All respondents in potato section (1028)
YGq21: Which THREE, if any, of the following would you say are the best
aspects of potatoes? (Please select up to three options)
YGq20: Which THREE, if any, of the following put you off buying more fresh
potatoes? (Please select up to three options)
Not
versatile
7%
Convenience is the main trigger to purchase for prepared potato
products
20% buy
63% buy
refrigerated & ready
to cook microwave
potato products
frozen potato
products
Easy to prepare &
cook
Quick to prepare &
cook
72%
67%
Quick to
prepare & cook
64%
71%
We like them
Easy to prepare
& cook
I can microwave
them
59%
61%
They taste
great
45%
Don’t have to
spend time
peeling &
chopping
44%
They are
cheap
Safe to
prepare
Less
washing
up
They taste
great
37%
31%
39%
44%
Source: AHDB Consumer Tracker conducted by YouGov
July 2015
Don’t have to
spend time
peeling &
chopping
We like them
51%
45%
Base: All respondents in potato section (1028), who buy frozen potatoes (624), who
buy refrigerated and ready to cook or microwave potatoes (197)
YGq26: Do you tend to buy any of the following kinds of potatoes or potato products?
YGq27: And why do you tend to buy these kinds of potato?
Recent retail trends
Volumes are stabilising in the fresh potato
market
4
YoY
volume %
2
0
‐2
‐4
‐6
‐8
‐10
‐12
‐14
J F M A A M J J A S O N D J F MM A M J J A S O N D J F MM A M J J A S O N D J F MM A M J J A S O
2012
2013
ROLLING 12 W/E VOLUME – TOTAL FRESH POTATOES
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
2014
2015
Maincrop has become more important to
the fresh market in the past year
5 year fresh potato - subsector share of volumes
62%
59% 60% 59% 59%
23% 22% 24% 23% 21%
18% 18% 17% 18% 17%
Baking
52 w/e 16 Oct 11
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
Maincrop
52 w/e 14 Oct 12
52 w/e 13 Oct 13
New
52 w/e 12 Oct 14
52 w/e 11 Oct 15
Some other carbs are struggling with price
deflation but there are some key growth areas
Value sales of carbohydrates market 2013-2015 (£000s)
£2,000,000
£1,750,000
2013
2014
2015
£1,500,000
£1,250,000
£1,000,000
£750,000
£500,000
£250,000
£0
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
Frozen potato products are less reliant on older
consumers
Consumer profile - fresh potatoes & frozen potato products
Fresh potatoes
Frozen Potato Products
30%
Share of meal occasions
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Child 4 and Child 5-9
under
Child 10-15
16-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Usage, 52 w/e 25 May 15
65+
Convenience isn’t a new trend but
consumers are expecting more
But consumers haven’t
changed their minds about
rice and pasta
How convenient are they to cook?
POTATOES
24%
32%
Inconvenient
Neither
2011: 60%
2014: 58%
Convenient
62%
47%
-15pp
2011: 67%
2014: 66%
Scored out of ten where 1-4 is convenient and 7-10 is inconvenient
AHDB / Oxford Partnership, Dec 14
IGD Retail Analysis
Consumers are willing to pay much more
to make their life quicker & easier
Speed
Flavour
I spend 25% more for taste
I spend 19% more to save time
Solutions
I spend 234% more for solutions
KWP Usage, 2015
Save time uplift based on ready made v homemade; solutions based on meal deals v average
cost of a meal for two; taste based on Premium PL chilled ready meals
This has created opportunities for new and
improved convenience categories
Ready to Cook
Chilled Main Meal
Accompaniments
Incomplete meal
Incomplete meal
Complete meal
Added Value
Oven or Microwave
Microwaveable
Silver Tray
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
Veg Sides
Ready Meals
Plastic Container
Vegetables feature highly in convenient side dishes
Ready to Cook
1
2
Chilled Main Meal
Accompaniments
Ready Meals
Chicken 50%
Chicken 25%
Chicken 30%
Turkey 15%
Vegetable 23%
Beef 27%
3
Pork 13%
Pork 14%
Fish 12%
4
Beef 6%
Fish 13%
Pork 9%
5
Fish 6%
Mixed 10%
Mixed 8%
6
Lamb 5%
Beef 8%
Vegetable 7%
7
Duck 0.8%
Lamb 3.4%
Lamb 6%
Convenience | Spend Share
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, 52 w/e 6 Dec 15
Top CMMA Veg Products
M&S Potato Croquettes
M&S Potato Rosti
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, 52 w/e 6 Dec 15
CMMA – Chilled Main Meal Accompaniments
Prepared sectors are all in double digit growth, and there is
a big contrast between prepared and wholehead veg
15
Spend Growth %
10
5
0
‐5
‐10
Prepared
Produce
Prepared vs Wholehead | 52 w/e 13th September 2015
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
Prepared
Fruit
Prepared
Veg
Wholehead
Produce
Wholehead
Fruit
Wholehead
Veg
Despite the price premium, prepared produce
has taken over £16m from wholehead in the last
year
£16m
•
Wholehead vs Prepared Switch | 52 w/e 13th September 2015
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
But let’s not forget what a massive category
fresh potatoes is
96%
26
£1.1
households
times pa
bn
67%
individuals
2.5
dishes per
week
POTATO MARKET – KEY MEASURES
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
52 w/e 11th October 2015 vs year
ago
Summary
• Savvy shopping habits unlikely to reverse but
an increase in ‘affordable indulgences’ is to be
expected
• Potato sales are stabilising
• Losses are being made to more convenient
meal solutions
• Innovation, NPD and comms to focus on health
and convenience
Thank you
[email protected]
024 7647 8700