Evacuation Watch
Date Issued: 17th August 2016
Turkey
Level RAISED to Increased Monitoring following a
sustained uptick in terrorist activity / attempted coup
Executive Summary
In light of a sustained uptick in militant activity and failed coup attempt, we have raised our
Evacuation Watch level to Increased Monitoring.
Turkey’s security environment has deteriorated since July 2015, and both Kurdish and Islamist militancy now pose a
heightened risk to employees. An attempted coup on 15th July reflected growing dissatisfaction with President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian governance, and widespread crackdowns in the aftermath have further
strengthened his control.
Security risks are MODERATE and STABLE while political risks are MODERATE and DETERIORATING.
Current levels of militancy are unlikely to change significantly in the short-medium term with attacks occurring weekly in the
south-east, and once every two months in major urban centres. Political stability is likely to deteriorate in the medium term,
with Erdogan’s policies viewed as increasingly authoritarian following an extensive purge of the armed forces, civil service
and media.
An escalation to WARNING level would follow a dramatic increase in the frequency of terrorist activity
and the spread of anti-government sentiment.
Militant groups capitalise on possible security and intelligence vacuums following crackdowns and gain increased
operational freedom, with attacks in north-western cities occurring monthly. A vocal anti-government movement emerges
and demonstrations are held on a weekly basis countrywide, triggering regular clashes with the security forces.
Current conditions warrant monitoring developments on a monthly basis for a potential deterioration.
We recommend that establishing an evacuation plan is a prudent security measure, but not a necessity at the current time.
Developments
We have raised our Evacuation Watch level to Increased Monitoring following a sustained uptick in terrorist
activity and an attempted coup.
Turkey’s security environment has gradually deteriorated since July 2015, when a fragile ceasefire between the government
and the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) broke down. Terrorist activity targeting the security forces is now commonplace in the
predominantly Kurdish south-east, while high-profile attacks in north-western cities have also been claimed by PKK affiliates.
Alongside the Kurdish threat, Islamic State (IS) militants have also claimed a number of attacks over the past year and maintain
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a determined intent to orchestrate high-casualty attacks in north-western
cities. The ongoing conflict in neighbouring Syria has exacerbated current
issues with the significant influx of refugees complicating intelligencegathering operations and diverting resources.
Political dissatisfaction with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s
increasingly authoritarian governance manifested in an
attempted coup on 15th July.
The attempted coup was orchestrated by officers within the armed forces
and demonstrated extensive planning through the coordination of troops
Evacuation Watch Levels
Level
Explanation
4
Evacuation
Terminate operations and evacuate all staff
3
Consider Evacuation
Conditions warrant scaling down non-essential
operation and consideration of evacuation
2
Warning
Conditions warrent monitoring developments
on a weekly basis and a preparatory stance
regarding possible evacuation
1
Increased Monitoring
Conditions warrent monitoring developments
on a monthly basis for a potential deterioration
0
No level
Conditions are stable to the point that country/
territory is not on ‘Evacuation Watch’
of various ranks across numerous regiments. Ultimately the coup failed
because the planners were unable to amass the groundswell of support and
secure strategic assets within a small window of opportunity. The majority of the civilian population rallied around Erdogan in
support of the democratic system. This does not necessarily demonstrate that Erdogan maintains a loyal support base, and an
extensive purge of the armed forces, civil service and media has followed the coup attempt.
Trend: Security risks MODERATE and STABLE / Political risks MODERATE and DETERIORATING
Terrorist activity contributes to the MODERATE but STABLE security risks countrywide, with both Kurdish
and Islamic militant groups maintaining a determined intent to orchestrate attacks.
Terrorist activity poses HIGH risks in the south-east, owing to the frequency of incidents and the location of core Kurdish
support. There are LOW risks posed elsewhere, with the exception of major urban centres where the risk rating is MODERATE
owing to the location of attractive targets. Further attacks by Kurdish militants targeting security personnel in the south-east are
guaranteed in the immediate-to-short term. Meanwhile further attacks in major north-western cities are likely in the short-tomedium term with both Kurdish and Islamic militants maintaining a desire to orchestrate high-profile attacks.
The targeting pattern of Kurdish militant groups is largely predictable, and unlikely to change significantly
in the coming months.
Kurdish groups have typically targeted security infrastructure in response to ongoing security operations in the south-east,
though the Kurdistan Freedom Flacons (TAK), a PKK affiliate, have demonstrated a willingness to accept civilian casualties
as a collateral impact of their attacks. IS prioritise mass-casualty attacks and will continue to favour densely-
populated urban areas often frequented by Western tourists.
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Political risks are MODERATE and DETERIORATING, with Erdogan declaring a state of emergency following
the attempted coup and pursuing a widespread crackdown against political dissidents.
Further attempts to overthrow the government are unlikely in the short-to-medium term, with political opposition effectively
quashed by the ongoing purge and the government’s power significantly increased. While the population consider Erdogan a
product of the country’s democratic system, there are limited credible threats to political stability. However, with the far-reaching
crackdown transcending democratic institutions such as the press, academic institutions and the civil service, we expect public
opinion of the regime to worsen. Perceptions of autocratic tendencies is expected to erode his support base, leading to further
political instability in the medium-to-long term.
What to watch
Conditions that could warrant an escalated evacuation stance to WARNING level would include a dramatic
increase in the frequency of terrorist activity and the spread of anti-government sentiment.
Islamist Terrorism
Diminishing security and intelligence capabilities in the aftermath of Erdogan’s extensive post-coup crackdown sees more plots
become operational and attacks occurring on a monthly basis. In light of greater operational freedom, IS diversify their attacks
and begin targeting foreign commercial interests alongside major tourist hubs in an effort to gain greater international coverage.
Companies located within international business districts such as Istanbul’s Maslak make a conscious decision to heighten onsite security in response to credible threats.
Kurdish Militancy
Having established an operational stronghold in the south-east, the PKK and affiliated groups shift their focus to major northwestern cities in an effort to destabilise the security environment in major urban centres and force concessions from the
government. Attacks continue to predominantly target security infrastructure and personnel, however the frequency of incidents
increases dramatically and mass-casualty civilian attacks occur on a monthly basis.
Political Unrest
With Erdogan’s widespread crackdowns becoming increasingly unpopular, a vocal and sizeable anti-government movement
emerges and begins staging well-attended demonstrations across the country. The government responds to gatherings in a
heavy-handed manner, attempting to disperse demonstrations with force and accusing those involved of opposing democracy.
Demonstrations occur on a weekly basis countrywide, including urban centres and the accompanying violent clashes are
commonplace, often disrupting transport infrastructure and business operations.
Political Stability
Effectively using the coup attempt as a carte blanche to target and stifle political opposition, Erdogan consolidates power
becoming a de facto one party state. An influential opposition movement based in Europe and North America increases
government perceptions of ‘foreign meddling’ in domestic affairs, triggering a schism with NATO. Turkey is increasingly viewed
as pariah state and relations with the West deteriorate, with incidents of government harassment and extortion targeting foreign
nationals and interests reported on a weekly basis.
Actions on
Monitor developments on a monthly basis
Current conditions warrant monitoring developments on a monthly basis for a potential deterioration. Following the trends and possible
triggers for deterioration outlined above is an important step in pre-empting escalation indicators that may precipitate an evacuation. These
changes in the security environment may manifest themselves either as a gradual or sudden deterioration; each set of circumstances will
necessitate a different response with regards to evacuation planning.
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Implement Journey Management Plans(JMP) and arrivals procedures
For staff members in LOW-risk areas, journey management should entail utilising trusted taxi companies; high end public transport
is also an acceptable mode of transport. In MODERATE-risk areas it is advisable to obtain an accredited local driver for meet-andgreet and overland moves. Mainstream public transport should be avoided, where possible. For staff in HIGH-risk areas we advise
using a local fixer; obtain an up-to-date assessment of the security situation on routes prior to travel. Some areas may necessitate
arrangements with a security provider and vehicle convoys.
Identify prefered hotels
In MODERATE to HIGH risk areas, select security accredited hotels for staff ahead of deployment. Within major cities, it is advisable
to elect lower profile hotels away from the main tourist thoroughfares and security force infrastructure. Accredited hotels can also
serve as safe havens for a ‘stand fast’ contingency in the event of a sudden deterioration in the security environment. We also advise
identifying preferred hotels in tourist towns outside of vulnerable cities, to serve as an option for internal relocation in the event that
evacuation is rendered impossible or unnecessary.
Consider authoring evacuation plans
At the posture of ‘Increased Monitoring’ we recommend that establishing an evacuation plan is a prudent security measure, but not
a necessity. This would involve identifying the responsibilities of a Crisis Management Team (CMT), and then establishing protocols
for emergency or phased evacuations, as well as stand fast protocols for staff in higher-risk areas. This would also entail creating a
plan of action and an evacuation decision process for an escalated posture. As Turkey is a diverse operating environment, it is also
advisable to consider where travel restrictions may apply. If you require support for evacuation planning, please contact Healix Global
Security Operations Centre (GSOC) or your account manager.
Establish communications protocols
We gauge the security environment in Istanbul, Ankara and the south-east to be fluid enough to warrant establishing a warden system with other security managers and with staff to disseminate information; This would allow security managers to pass on security
messages from embassies, information on incidents, or security updates quickly over instant messaging platforms. For staff in highrisk areas, ‘active monitoring’ should be considered, with the option of staff providing a daily check-in to update security managers
on their situation.
Educate staff on measures to reduce exposure
There are precautions that employees can take to ensure they are not exposed to terrorist attacks, political violence or unrest and
security managers should ensure these are adequately communicated. Staff should be advised to avoid all protests owing to the
precedent for violence, and to minimise time spent in the vicinity of government and military infrastructure. For staff on longer deployments or in high-risk areas, terrorism and kidnap awareness training should be considered – please contact the Global Security
Operations Centre (GSOC) or your account manager for more information.
Consider static site reviews
For static sites, particularly those located in MODERATE risk areas and above, it may be worth conducting a security review with
consideration of the local security environment. This would also involve ensuring that perimeter controls commensurate to the risk
context are in place, including possible measures to detect, delay or deter a threat. In HIGH-risk areas, response protocols should
be considered including evacuation drills. As part of this process it may be worth investigating insurable political risk for static assets
and high value equipment.
Authored by, Craig Webb - MENA
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