*\ ] l
I
tl
lit
I
,
d
O N T HE S O CI A L A ND CUL T URA L
I MP L I CA T I O NS O F NUCL E A RWA R
By
Johan
Galtung
of Politics
Departm:nt
Princeton
Univ-^rsity,
PRINCETON, New Jers:y
April
1986
08544
.':
I
\
SCENARIO
POINTS
):
.'-.+1rT^r r ur
DLuD o rrr5
u rr€ c o n s e q u e n c e s
s c enar io.
L rl h a t k i n d
( a)
ar e
(r1"^
th e
nuclear
yield
to ta l
dec apit at io n )
or bot h.
or
For
m ight
lower
be re l a ti v e l y
as pr opor t i o n a te
(ra i s e d
yield,
lev els
of
being,
f or
t er r it or y
would
of
for
yi e1d,
re fe rre d
nine
is
be v e ry
d i ffe re n t
to
l evel s
the
s c enari os
is
targets
and " hi gh"
of
consequences
w oul d
prof ile
the
propor t ionat e
W i th
mi ght
di ffer
r anges
and t t bot ht t
(eg,
refi ned
sttack?).
t hr ee
( t he
o rcett , t' counter-val uett
the
def ined
l evel ,
same.
-
be n eeded,
respecti vel y
be further
"f or ce"
gener al) -
in
213) and i nversel y
" medi um"
coul d
di men sions
factors
the
t he
deci si on-making
scenari os
be about
that
of
preci si on
2) mi ght
is
are mai nl y
The l ethal i ty
pow er of
densi ty
the
a n d th e
Tw o basi c
counter-val ue
yi el d.
vari abl e
centers
of
rrcounter-f
) and
what
the
i ncl udi ng
hi gh
a s t' l ow " ,
to
d i ffe re n t
involved,
w i th
pow er of
th e
w i th?
and economi c producti on
hi gh
(ra i s ed
to
i ndependent
w hether
si de,
s cenari os
i n s ta n c e ,
get
we would
other
l o w p re c i s i on
to y i e l d
im pr ec i s i o n
and (b)
(p o p u l a ti on
levels
w ar the
\,r' ar are w e deal i ng
o n th e
rrv a l u e "
c o u n te r-fo rc e
and pr es um a b l y
nucl ear
u n l e a s hed
^l'1r - Li+^--m
rE a ry c^^a p a b i l i ty
\trte
to
of
of
how m uch
These condi ti ons
in
order s
several
of
m agnit ude.
a n y p o s i ti o n
W it hout
taking
( in
lo w e r
ra n g e ,
eg h i g h
yield
t he
r ange,
t hat
ev en l o w e r
im plic at ion ,
is
of
ra n g e
eg low yield
a n d b o th
nuclear
me d i u m a n d h i g h e r
a c h a ra c te ri s ti c
war f ar e
o n rrhether
w ars
range
the
w ar i s
and counter-force)
counter-force
p a rc i c u l ar
k n o ro ' n to h u m a n k i n d :
a nucl ear
are
catastrophi c
in
thei r
even more so.
nucl ear
synergy
or unl i mi ted
and counter-val ue)
scer€i os
to
more 1i ke1y
expl osi ons,
betw een
the
not
effects
it
to be lim it ed
(i n
the higher
be not ed
shoul d
consequences,
One reason
shared
of
the
and by
for
by o t her
t his
t ypes
exp losion.
A
u
,
SYNERGY
A nuclear explosion
b1as t ,
t he rm a l
( in
dus t
th e
ef f ec t s ,
als o
ra d i a ti o n ,
c anc e l
f lam m able;
th e
will
op e ra ti o n s l
a fu l l
will
s pher e
s p re a d
point
genet ic
would
w i th
r ein fo rc e
1ev e1s of
t he bio s p h e re ,
of
being
d e p ri v e d
ir r at ional,
wor s t
f r om
init ial
will
a n d th e n
of
only
m ay b e s ti l l
ot her
d i s a s te rs
p e ri o d .
to
of
other
rei nforces
safe
hal f-l i ves
spread
s h o rt
and l ong
gestati on
the
offspri ng;
s u s te n a n c e ;
th e
know i ng
1 e ve1 of
b e tw een
induce
food-chai n
the
fi t1
the
the
vi ol ence
i n h u m a n h i story
that
if
will
in
is
but
safe;
explosion
spr ead
and hydr o-
ti me,
thi s
will
f r om
e g in
Ehe
may
at
happen
l easc
low
is
transm it t ed
gi ve
a f eeling
term pl anni ng
for
plant s
radi ation
sui ci de
and the
al so
ecology
know ledge
envi ronment
may make a nucl ear
usual l y
effects
that
not
t he
te m per at ur e) .
as damage to
scrambl e
effects
to
a nucl ear
over
or
long
(th us,
of
S econdary
make l ong
the
not
atmosphere
to human bei ngs
hopel essness
that
in
know l edge
i nani mate
i mmedi ate
a sense of
c o me , a factor
thi s
of
effects
and encourage
if
l ow eri ng
no pl ace
peri ods
of
an abnormal
w ords how the
the
and
coord inat ed
and radi ati on
effects
any pani c.
long
to
ecol ogy
C urrents
that
m ight
and toni- zing
the magni tude
by the
the
envi ronment.
T h e w ay damage to
T h e s y n e rg i e s
not
in
a s e n s e o f h o p e l essness
a n d i n c re a s e
and wat er .
synergi es
the y
-de bui ldings
thermal
creati ng
fi res
t hese
and make them m or e in-
the
of
be destroyed
i nsi
and i mpedi ng
modi fy
bl asts,
w i de, meani ng
tra n s m i s s i o n
ra ti o n a l i ty .
to
ef f ec t s
w i th
a fte r
cancer
s to c k
w o rl d
will
mi nd that
of
reduce
the poi nt
a fte r-effects,
(c o mp l e te l y )
is
e l e me n ts
of
m o r e easi l y
peopl e
and pl ants
and
tw o or more of
trap
uncertai nty
of
of
in
greatl y
will
to
pul se
beari ng
become vi cti ms
i mpact
the
w orki ng
will
ani mal s
then
th e
about
of
bl ast
atmosphere
w i n te r"
th e e ffe c L s
no p l a c e
f or m
th e
will
j oi nt
the
i ncreasi ng
s p a c e a n d th e w hol e
time,
t he
pul se
fu rth e r
c o m p l e x w o rk i n g
r adioac t iv e
in
the
major effects:
el ectro-magneti c
ech other,
humans,
th e re b y
"nuclear
e x a c e rb a te
t hr ough
t hat
kill
dust
O ne a d d i ti o n a l
t he
is
more easi l y
e l e c tro -ma g n e ti c
weak ened b y ra d i a ti o n
is
th e y
c o mmu n i c a ti o n
of
t hat
E x a mpl es:
s o th a t
ra d i a ti o n
point
A synergy
e a c h o th e r.
r adiat ion;
r es c ue
radi ati on,
s e e n a s e x a c e r bati ng
s t r u c tu re s
dis t anc e
i o n i zi ng
a tm o s p h e re ).
usually
ot her
can be analyzed in terms of five
look
unpol l uted
l ong
term
a feel i ng
w ar very
have a w el l * defi ned
f ood
t hat
di ff er ent
w o r st ,
t he
--"]
IMPACT ON NATIONAL SOCIETY
T he c ohes i o n
of
a n a ti o n a l
bet ween g o v e rn m e n t
a n d c i ti z e n s
alr eady
b e p ro b l e m a ti c ,
nuc lear
w a rfa re
t he
ion.
F ir s t .
th e
populat ion
of
th e
t o pos t - imp a c t
s helt er ed
th e
s h e l tered
possibly
cannot
condi E i ons
re a s onabl e
h a rd s h i p
e l i te s
will
spending
adequatel y
post-i mpact
in
advi ce
from
those
possi bl y
b e di sputed,
and com plet . e
havi n g
agai nst
l i fe.
l ess
sur -
bl a st
and
The l egit im acy
to
more exposed
those
the poi nt
to
on (vi ol ent?)
m o re ti me
may dest r oy
that
general
Under
the bunkers, and Lhe ge ner al
of
factor
pl ay
government,
the
have been shel tered
m a y b e c o me a maj or
ci .E i .zens m ay
condi ti ons.
to
cl ose
verti cal
of
cri si s
come i nto
i ncl udi ng
e v e n p e rfe c tl y
or der s ,
factors
a s y m m e try b e tr4 Teen l eaders,
r a d i a ti o n ,
t her m al
poi nt
ordi nary
somethi ng
to
w hether
betw een groups
of
under
th a t
condi ti ons,
or l norLzontal l y
s o me addi ti onal
fu rth e r,
phy s i c a l l y
v iv ed
usual
a n d e ven more so under
c o n d i ti o n s
c ohes i v e n e s s
dis int egr a t
under
s o c iety
of
crow d control
wit h
confl i ct
measures
on
t han
r el ief .
S ec o n d ,
ef f or t s
wit h
th e
impact
fo r
s u rv i v a l
t he need to
c o me to
T he gov er n m e n t
ma y b e a b l e
Bu t e v e n i f
r ily
be t h e
case,
t he
dias as te r
t he
legit im a c y
t her .
at
least
of
th e
least
at
nanc e of
m a te ri a l
c aus e of
th e
int o
but
th o s e
ev er y body
will
fo r
m ut u a l l y
is
hav e to
has s ur v iv e d
in
the
s tru c tu re s ,
of
also
help.
p ro b a b l y
c o me fro m
s u ffi c i e n tl y
m o re re a l i sti c
th e
o u ts i de,
to
will
for
possi bl y
rescue
from
the
Thi s
not
necessa-
c ause of
nuclear
r educe
w i ll
the
ci rcumsl an ce
cooperati on
will
It
envi ronment
other
operati ons.
is
usi ng
possi bl y
post-i mpact
Loge-
reconstructi on,
mental
of
l o ne1y
i nto
and thei r
be suspected
as i mage of
was r e-
not
obtai n
to
if
repai r,
peopl e
the
be t her e.
even further.
be i rrati onal .
scavengi ng
that
concer n
that
si de
will
other.
cope w i th
sma1l groups,
e ngage i n
the
l arge-scal e
obj ecti vel y,
i n d i v i d u a l s,
to
needs of
A model of
may feel
t he
will
other
w hi ch
become fragmented,
resources
el se
si de,
or
govern
to
the
and i nabi l i ty
one si de
d e structi on,
w h o s a y s o me th i n g
h o s ti l e
of
other
tryi ng
materi al
th e
possibly
self
no!
that
of
soon after
di saster
the
popul ati on
attempt
s c a rci ty
w i th
arms race
s ma 11 groups,
th e
the
the
probabl y
will
i n to
e n o rmi ty
s ubjec t iv ely,
a s t r at egy
of
g o v e rn me ntrs
given
Ho w e v e r,
him s elf l
p o r ti on
a rm s c ontrol ,
p o p u l a ti o n
th e
indiv iduals
th e b o m b came from
a s rz a b l e
B ut
the popul ati on
convi nce
may w ash out
that
bl ame because
groups.
gri ps
and emoti onal
to
di stri bute
and fami l yl peer
w a s p a rti c i p a ti o n
or
T hir d ,
oneself
c o g n i ti v e
s pons ible.
dis ar m am e n t
have a numbi ng effect
w h a t h a p p ened and then
t o u n d e rs ta n d
s hee r
p r obabl y
will
al so
needs benot
only
f or
everybody
as
organi zaLion
breaki ng
and suspi
-
if
dovr n
c ious
R eal
soci ety.
countri es
sust e-
the
of
aid
out side
CULTURAL IMPACT
\
T he n u c l e a r
t he
of
double
me a n i n g c o n ta i n e d
let t ing
it s elf
c apac it y
to
s t r engt h
r ebuild
a pont
c onf lic t
th e
of
v e ry
th e
like
d a rk
o th e r
th e
c ri s e s ,
what might
wh i c h
would
capabl e
i n n er
of
hi gher
in
h a v e th e i r
of
th e
the
our
securi ty
strong
d oubts.
like
w ort
th e n
th e
stage
a W estern
to
t hac
t he
thr eat
of
the nuclear
ever
of
incr easing
t he
si ncere,
agonizing
self -
and cause sever e
ci vi l i zati on
rebui l di ng
l esr
for
deep, and possi bl y
i n W estern
the
of
to
be a reduced
ir
achieve-
capaci ty
rni ght
a n d di sbel i evers
cul tur e
evi dence
D eep,
that
of
The qsul t
a very
danger
control
be w i despread
in
snd t he
evi dence
uni verse;
our bui l t-i n
w oul d
bel i evers
l i ve
i nstead
us.
wit h
w e are now l i vi .ng
be tel l i ng
have done before
the bo t t le
sci enti fi c/techni cal
i ncapaci ty
cul ture,
exerci se
of
physi cal
w oul d
in
the geni e,
The bornb i s
of
any magni tude
noE look
set
of
l evel s
o ur W estern
of
revol uti on
acti on.
evi dence
geni e
a product
tremendous
w orki ngs
o c c i d e n tal
b e tw e e n b e l i e v e rs
of
geni us
the
The bomb i s
c i v i l i z a ti o n s
p e rh a p s
i mage:
d e strucLi ve
war of
side
the proverbi al
s c i e n ti fi c-techni cal
u s w i th
e n ti re
who a l re a d y
that
convincing
A nuclear
ab o u t
ident it y
also
of
a n d p ro v i d e
of
des t r uc t ,
a m b i g u i ty ,
equally
ins ec ur it y .
in
th e b o ttl e .
c o mp re h e n d th e
w a rs
ar m s r ac e
doubt s
th i s
, but
nuc lear
of
th e p o i n t
m ent s t o
t hos e
out
it
c a rri e s
t hr ough
b o mb h a s b e e n compared to
mor e t han
i ncentive
mi ghc agai n
ci vi l l -zatl on
to
sel f-dest r ucr -
hi ghl y
post
violent ,
be1lum .
in
5
IMPACT ON WORLD SOCIETY
T he c ohes i o n
of
as wit nes se d
b y th e n u c l e a r
ing
of
new ones,
F ir s t ,
t he
aid
of
the
post
as well
a s u n j u s t,
at - v er y
local
a n o th e r
be th e
of
idea
dou b tfu l
at m os phere
t he
lut ed
fo r
will
w oul d
an opportuni ry
\toul d
seem
w oul d
producti on
not
de t er ior aEion
w hen cat abe more necessar y
for
onl y
some m ight
the
i ntr oduccion
i mmoral
structur e,
to
extreme
of
also
but
i mpede any trade
condi ti ons
also
a s f ollows.
and the
si tuati on
end
just
aut ar ky,
w i shful
thi nki ng
a nucl ear
w i th
n u c l e ar
w ar humani ty
a w orl d
attack
to
th a n
will
government,
condi ti ons
re s tructuri ng
lead
E hat some peopl e
somehorv pu11 i tself
under
of
in
the
c o o p erati ve
w oul d
i nteracti on.
the
det er ior at ion
and unpol-
scarce
l ead
A dded to
psychological
the
for
r oge-
t'never m or er r .
sl ogan
R ather,
scrambl e
i nfrastructure
the
produce
will
of r,rorl d soci ety.
an i ncrease
mi ghc enE e r t ain
E o compet it . ive,
thi s,
then,
ar e
t he
t wo fa c to rs .
a post
no n -n u c l e a r
ac t ac k
l ^ /a r a re
a nuc lear
t hink i n g
gener a l
e n te rs
is
long
m ajor
pow e rs
t heir
ov m b o rd e rs ,
r eas ons
t heir
possi b ly
has been cri ti ci zedrand
structure
economi c
a n d th e b re a k dow n
po\ , r ' er s t r u c tu re .
in
post
ra th e r
T hir d ,
f ul
structure
S uch i deas
possibly
such major
en v i ro n me n t
ev en v iole n t,
of
a fL e r
th a t
th a c
r es o u rc e s ,
newx t
trade
lower
can be stated
and transportati on
a tE .a ck condi ti ons
ty p e
and re a s s e mb l e ,
is
four
a ccom pany-
even on the
further,
exchange condi ti ons
more normal
a n d re d u c e
w ar,
confl i cts
rrhi ch
of
probl em at ic
expressi ons
i mpede econodtcrel ati onsl i -n.
s tru c tu re .
nuclear
these
reasons
th e p resent
of
A nucl ear
communi cati on
w o rl d
al ready
1evels.
S ec o n d ,
It
under
d e m o l i ti o n
unr ealis E ic :
t her
of
is
and the many confl i ct
exacerbate
g re a tl y
T h e c u rre n t
a new a n d b e tte r
would
will
condi ti ons,
countri es.
a n u m b e r of
will
a n d tra d e
ev er.
s ee in
a n d r i ch
th e b re a k d o w n
en v i ro n me n t
s E r ophe
t han
fo r
present
under
a r ms race
o f ma g n i tu d e ,
scale
open f or
of
s o c i e ty ,
g a p b e tw e e n p o o r
t he
t he
w o rl d
to
d e fl e c t
a tta ck
nucl ear
p o w e rs
for
less
th e n u c l e a r
at
o v e rd u e
to
w oul d
in
pow ers are
E he si mpl e
w eapons of
the
al l
l i kel i hood
1i ke1y
reason
other
have a di f f er ent
E o be destroyed
the pri ori ty
that
si de.
The thi rd
that
a restructuri ng
a n d that
thi s
rnay represent
an opportuni t.y.
thi s
by stati oni ng
nucl ear
c o u n te ract
e x tra te rri to ri al l y
a n d d i s p e rs e
s u c h th i n g s
or
a nucl ear
re d ucti on
of
on the
of
terri tory
onsl aught.
of
al ready
l ead
pr e-
tar get
in
of
others,
of
wish-
pow er r elat ions
Pr e- at t ack
capabi l i ti es
They mi ght
the pow er potenti al
may happen w oul d
w orl d
mo r e,
type
p oi nt:
th i s
p re -e m p ti v e
th a t
w orl d
Pre -a tta c k
m a y c ry
war p l a n s
A nc ic ipat in g
nuclear
al so
future
out . side
amo ng ot her
i nc lude
in
com pet it or s.
to deteri orati on
in
re ta ti o n s
int er nat io n a l
r elat iqs
is
b ro u g h t
to
r elat e d
les s
at t ac k
in
F ou rth ,
of
f or ino
to
s o c i e ty
as r ev eng e ,
^^ts^r
dLLEU
UUL
r ec t ed
of
to
th e
be col l ecti vel y
T h e trauma
s ta rti n g
th e re b y
^ - ^ !- ^ +
cr
..i
LllIl
-
d 6 d I l r >L
d
w i ti r
a g g re s s i o n ,
i d e n ti t-v
or " ' n n a ti o n a L
c ollec t iv e
ps1'choLogical
par t ic ular
ty p e s
of
popul ati ons,
or
-P^d f- !.. L _ y
- ru
t
i n tc rn al
..l s
Or,
the
ci re three
al l
severe
trauma
t he post -
subconscious,
caused such suf -
percei ve d
^an
di recti ons
to
doubts
at t acker
can be
l ead
L
can remai n
seen
Of them har m f ul
the
+L !d U l l l d
can be rel eased,
bornb that
in
and/or
or
The trauma
Tr.^
Il l g
r L u I,e
di vi si rrness
1 ;o l i ti c i a n s,
cycl e.
scaD e_soaf
i rr.) vu L r r r l - .
qr
a n d status.
ti n e
a trauma
of
by th e vict im s
havi ng
agai nst
out
syndr om e.
by popul ati o ns
al so
consequences,
can be acted
renew i ng
suffered
for
atE ack
power -
and th e
rel ati ons
cctpci ous
possi bl y
fi rst
Power
and be di si nteg r at ive.
traumas
shared,
fO a number of
general
a dependency
grati tude,
than
the
comes t he new
thi s
hel pi ng
devel opi ng
i ndi vi dual
severe
can lead
pow erful
the
the w ho-hel ps-w hom
rather
l a unchi ng
L h e c o u n try
cohesion.
in
A dded to
and emergency i n
expense of
changes
will
th e re
Q :rn h trs g ma s
wor ld
the
re s e n tment
to
w i th
ai d
b y th e v i c ti mi zed
s u ffe re d
as belong i n g
at
ra p i d
a d d i ti o n
a tta c k
a nuc l e a r
t r aum as
possibly
may lead
w o rl d
sufferi ng
e m e rg e n c y /c a ta s tr ophe
accompanying
Res ent m e n t
condi ti ons.
" normal "
b y p o s t-attack
about
helped,
bein g
under
in
to
the
count r y
as a
unprocessed
eg through
ski l fu l
i ndi cated,
si ngly
_di _
s el f
use by
or
com -
b ined .
I'/e i ivc
by ins uLc s
"wvuru
^" 1J
^)s
duu
ne\ , , /ones.
a l re a d v ,
s u ffe re d
--^ ^ * ty
5Lc4L!
I,/i th
to a l a r ge
in
to
to
done wic h
c a re )
s uc h t r au ma s
inadequacy
th e
abs or b
p s y c h ol ogy"
s o c i e ty
is
leaving
alone
the
s u c h i m p a c ts
w i th o u t
a w orl d
percei ved
deepeni ng
o{ w orl ct
w o rl d
in
l east
at
e v e n fa s hi onabl e
c o l l e c ti v e
-
or
tL g ;e i n s ul ts,
+ 11-E^ .'
' : -o
r^ ^y'.e
--e
a1
d,
"wr
i Lr
r rL.
* ,*
3d
indiv idual
E tre p a st
extent,
ol d
soci ety
bel i ef
si mpl y
not
economi c,
for
of
w ounded nati ons.
as such.
traumas,
rha*
tha,
(w hi ch,
of
course,
psychol ogi cal l y
i nsti tuti onal
to o much col l ateral
emoti onal
f r om
enough t o
and pol i ti cal
and l ortg l asti ng
and
have t o be
al w ays
strong
wich
suppor t ,
^ rrrrvLE
^^neral
i ze
L@
e
will
at t ack
nac ions
i mpri nti ng
naE i onal ,
rr" ^"
)vu
A nucl ear
wcunded
suf f er
capacit y
damage.
to
I}IPACT ON DEVELOPMENT
re g a rd l e s s
A lm os t
h o w o n e chooses
of
be c oun te r-p ro d u c ti v e y
as inc r e a s e
oper at ion
t iv e
as well
d e s tru c ti o n
re d u c e d
is
c lear
It
well
mi s s e s
c^i+,rEy
+l-^
^E
or
pair ed
tn e
dur ing
ma y a l s o
th e
t ioned
s uf f er
m o s t,
loc at ion.
at t ac k ;
eg because of
c ons eque n c e s
in
r a d i o a c ti v i ty
m ay s er v e
har d
than
F ina l l y ,
bas is
wi l l
and t o
s hor t
th e
from
the
i ts
of
l ow er
n ucl ear
clear
as
in
such as netw or ks,
- al l
eE c.
present
the
of
capa-
t hem im -
both
e q u a l i zer,
of
do --
w hi ch
w hat rsas ques-
probabl y
al ready
the
to
catast r ophes
the
not
poi nt
poor
t he
and the mor e exposed
of
a nu clear
B et\../een countri e s
more i n
may or may not
che subject
show tha t
condi ti ons
not.
a lso
is
the
ri cher
may then be argued
degradati on
will
to
housi ng
bei ng
it
nor
and i deol osi es.
thei r
others
raw m at er ials
the popul ati on ;
mi ght
l evel
under
targets
p o w e r a nd pri vi l ege
the w or1d. econom y
pol l ute
seem consi stentl y
arguments
w hi ch
of
devas t at ion
damage caused by natural
qual i ty
the
not
di stri buti on\w i 11
shel ters,
w i th
ri sk
subcuLtures
and economi c
a n d e n v i ronmental
th a t
t he nu-
such as belief
enE ered
w ar di d
a r,zay a nucl ear
and hurri canes
Against
a s th e g re a t
to believe
bet t er
in
S o u th .
popu-
t he
has qual i tative
consi derabl e
but
cancer
may be operati ng
having
may be less
r he p o o re r
but ed
fa c to rs
some people
in
S tudi es
fl o o d s
S i mi l a r
w ere rebui l t
r,/e re parti cul ar
s e t-b a c k
s uc h as e a rth q u a k e s ,
sufferi ng
subj ecIi ve
c u l ture
C fi t;e i s ' o a .
if
l hrough
condi ti ons
condi ti ons
B ut conventi onal
s e e n a s s o c i al
a c o n s i d e ra b l e
decrease
such argumenEat ion
and nonmateri al l y,
countri es
onl v
a n d/or
th e w h o l e
c ons i d e ra b l e
that
ma c h i n e ry .
rh e o b j e c ti v e
adm inist r a-
soci ety.
l ^ /a r not
a n d e v e n re j e c te d
s uf f er
psychol ogi cal
are
and soci ol ogi cal
to
of
producti on
in
huma n m anpo\ , / er
product
nati onal
gr owt h,
s yner gisLic
faci l i ti es,
may not
i nhuman character
the human factor
there
b e o b j e c te d
De v e l o p me n t
of
insult
s e c o n d w o rl d
q u e s ti o n
it
the
by the
(raw materi al s,
research
gross
r^/ar would
seen as economi c
GN P /capi ta
the
a nucl ear
be counteracted
factors
that
s^---+
y s te m L o re q /a rd materi al l y
inc r ea s e
did
th a t
p ro d u c ti o n
of
new p ro d u c ti o n
wit h
from
a s p e c ts :
by a nuclear
It
or
point
th e
s ign i fi c a n c e
a p a rt
w oul d
equi pment,
ma y b e obj ected
But
as q u a n ti a ti v e
t he
capi cal
devel opment
D evel opment
producti on
a s mu c h o r more than
on s l a u g h t.
als o
\,ray.
product
of
as unskilled,
c ap a c i ti e s ).
lat ion
it
th e
a maj or
o r w orl d
i n n a ti o n a l
of
s k illed
and in
co defi ne
of
be correct
that
t he
Nor t h
well
dist r i-
nucl ea r
wint er
even if
it
make some survi ve
t han
is
cons ider ably
o th e rs .
d e v e l o p me n t
s e en as capaci ty
b e g re a tl y
i mp a i re d
by al 1
s o c i e ty
g e n e ra l ,
creari ng
th e v e ry
in
o p p o s i te
of
the
to
devel op
damage suffered
new patterns
devel opment.
further
of
on a sel f-sust ained
to nature,
pauperi sm
i nd ividuals
and de pendency,
.-]
,\
PSYCHOSOCIALFACTORS INFLUENCING THE ARMAMENTSRACE AND DECISIONMAKING
r ac e
lies
fa c L o r
T he m os t o b v i o u s
a s a p a rt
it s el f,
t o ne\ ' r ' we a p o n s s y s te ms .
A p e cul i ar
appar ent
lack
in
as s um es ,
ri g ftl y
a " gap" .
s t ill
of
Pl a n s
P ar t y
m ay als o
by s ur pr ise .
c l ose
engender e d
as out
f r om
of
to
a u ti s ti c
the
an implicit
-
s e a rc h
not
easily
a n a rm s race
degr ee
of
weaons be i n g
t hey
but
ar e
also
re l a ti v e
als o
to
t he
a s s u mp ti o n
s uper dam a g e ,
a fa c t
pr ot ag o n i s ts ,
t he
s ta t us,
of
s t r uc t
s ide
of
will
th e
to
th a t
there
th e re
is
onl y
n o e m p a th y w i th
to
th e
o th e r
and to m a k e i t
t hat
o th e r
t hen
t her eby
lead
closing
p a rty
to
side
to
potenti al
i mportant.
onesel f
c i r cl e
!o use them.
possi bl e
a re mu c h l ess
of
Tomorrow ts
of
the
other
the
si de
other
P ortray{
as Good through
sup er power ,
onl y
of
the
the
l qi c
of S uperpqrger-S uperw eapon-S
cause
also
l ethal i ty
party
obj ecti ve
beam s
to
S uper weapons
the w eapon to
of
laser
cre dible
such w eapons but
terms
t he
enemy at t acks,
A s superw eapons
i mage that
--
--
capaci t y
is
capa-
dam age but
can be permi cted.
use of
syst em
superw eapon:
and deterrence
the w orse
the
i nfl i ct
the
Thus,
the nucl ear
overki l l
to
- par t ly
w orl d
survi vi ng
the w orse w eapons i n
j u sti fy
is
to
the
rel ati ve
vi cti ms
to
th e v i c i o u s
capaci ty
t he
more by looking
present
the
-
S yrmetry.
fi nd
no doubt,
antagoni sts
m o re c re d i b l e
p o rtra y a l
in
a
i ndi vidual
beLw een them.
and for
deter,
the
probabl y
X
would
say that
an arms race
by assumi ng
Y
of
posi ti on ,
expl ai ni ng
onl y
Par t y
i n hi s
si de
of
w i l l i ngness
d e v e l opi ng,
is
onl y
Par t y
I w ere
in
policy
"new"
as a p ar t
as to
is
st anding
and i na bilit y
in
today,
is
take
see onesel f
rel ati on
" ki 11i ng" ,
to
seems to
X
t her e
goi ng,
a superpow er
and not
also
k n o r,rn n o t
a rm s ra c e
the
Par t y
co the
so i mportant
a n d E he non-al i gned).
al1ies
a re
for
dem and_gg p -e l re rrg 1 q l e -q -.C o n s e q u e ntl y,
par t y
at
t he
race
one w oul d
(one factor
i n te n d ed
fo r
s u p e rw e a p o n s
B ut
under
p a rtl y
i n te n d e d
than
a measure not
s u p e rp o \^ /e r s ta tu s
only
factors
is
di fferentl y
even go so far
other
T h e superw eapon of
being
then
behavi or,
process
reacti ng
w hi ch
"if
One mi ght
c o n sti tuti ng
t o hav e s u p e rw e a p o n s .
t h e ma g n i tu d e
questi on
tr ansit ions
the meanti me
si tuati on
to
sel f- r einf or c-
Y to be ahead,
total
to keep the
on the
to
c h a ra c te ri s ti c s
not
are
thi s
of
conflict s
reLati onshi p.
Y in
E aken byparti ci pants
p s y c h o s o ci al
t he
P arty
arm s
j umps, or
of
P arty
i nabi l i ry
mode of
fo r
one of
the
the
same?"
is
p a rti e s
bilit y ,
a ccept
i n te ra c ti v e
t he
of
to
the
agreement
to
ins ide
is
s te ms from
val ues,
chai ns
the
same pace,
gap" ;
the
" cl ose
of
di shonestl y,
percei ves
h p q t-o r^ rl a s i ti mesy
would
it
In
th i s
h a v e d o n e th e
ps y c hodeve l o p me n t,
bec aus e
to
of
aspect
nature
the
up by the
by qttal i tati ve
gap as i f
the
at
Y p ro b a b ly
by ideology
ac t u a l l y
or
q u a n ti ta ti v e ly
Pa rt
a s p a rty
s y s t em ,
s t ep
a re m a d e to
s e e i ts e l f
punctuated
c he i nteracti ve
h o nestl y
A s Pa rty
X.
confl i cts
psychol ogi cal
o r w ro n g l y ,
p ro c e e d i n g
or
I not
insighE
system set
The sti mul us-response
a rm s races
leadi n g to q u a n ti ta ti v e
of
syndrome of
p o s i ti o n i ng.
I
ir g,
aeti o-reacti o
the
a g eneral
of
a n d rn i l i ta ry
int er es t s
in
a
has t o
con-
onet s
own
character ist ics
other
of
party
as Evil
dual i s m ,
.
T her e
in
is
a s s u m p ti on
a w i d e s p re a d
gener a l
b e fo re ,
chat
hav e r at io n a l L y ,
i n te re s ts
hoho. ' inr
rl rrri n o
qe&
d u ri n g
doing
and t he
of
th e
bet r v een d e c i s i o n -ma k e rs
S ev e ra l
p o i n ts
m or e r at io n a l
th a n
s t r es s
of
linit ed
P ublic
of
in
r t---
r
Lnan
behave
in
re s p o n s e "
nuc Lear
w a r a n d th e o th e r
'LUr
" -:' ^! r 1^5
A"
t
uu
t
also
lower
people
t hat
h e a l th
only
do
+L v^
is
lp r - it.i
to
i :' t :-,,' or
in
bei ng
that
al ready
cr owd.
i n her ent ly
under
ext r em e
an i n dicat ion
the popul ati on
aE Lar ge.
the maj ori tl r
of
thi s
the
i i el d
a re
re al l y
of
response
r
r l nnr r i no
d
uuLLf
is
stati oni ng
f avor
in
of
r vea-
at t ack.
By
be seen as m or e r a-
of
be met w i th
th
L i t€
i ts
other
.i h;l i r .,
arms race,
of
d
can be seen
achi evi ng
R easons for
perhaps
best
(see bel ow ).
atti tude
com pa-
t his
ar e
be seen as
P eople
in
more fri en dly
establ i shi ng
can thi s
. 1 { -;Illlll
ggd
u
^f!
i mpossi bi l i cl ' )
shoul d
reasons
m ay be
an all- out
PU b 5 IU IItL _ Y
doctri nes).
reasoni ng
the
r,ri l l
and i ncapabi l i ty
defensi ve
for
conventi onal l ettack
u
L
^F
tl r g
people-
be seen as an expr es-
C he raLi onaLi cy,
e wen
EvErr
s o me ti m e s
c o n fu s e
I ike
use w eaponsdmass destructi on
empaLhy so l ow w i th
w i ch
c o mp a ti b l e
due but
r h in k
l i mi ted
raLi onal i ty
off
d i s p u te
m ize
rcurLrlll!aL
d o ..u E
th e i r
not
t he
ra ti o n a l i ty.
a level
only
th i s
G od and H i s to ry
neoole
fn
LU
taken
calling
of
p re s u p p o s e
F
n , , r + l-L .r r t
! v u!
not
that
(" c
nucl ear
(e g stri ctl y
willingness
s om e peop l e
is
i nci i cl rte
noc
B y n o k novm cri teri on
level
one ma y n o t
m enlal
race
to
atti tudes
rSUDe1.
u r c ! P w w cL
a s l i m i ced
p re fe r
re l a Ei o n s .
T hird ,
of
but
docLri ncs
p o s i ti o n s
of
s e e m to
of
of
dangerou s
obvi ous
rei :rt i ve
s u p erpo\./er to a doctri ne
d o c tri n e s
r at ionalt z a tL o n s
s ion
be that
deci si on-makers
Lhe arns
see* ' to
d e e p a n d c o mp L e x a n d mi l i tary
t o- people
re lat ion
i recause the.,' can al so be used f or
a ndrra
vOne
rrL
tVing
L
-r
rrr<
r
m il i c a ry
gener aL
will
the
ir r at ional
'
^,.;i
p
u D r - L c o ) L :1j c:l .
- r tr - l.- tt
pr obably
i ,ri th
copi ng
i n i .,' e s te rn E urope
dLLdLl\
E ible
of
potenti al l y
beyond the
a n o n g ci eci si on-makers,
nr r ,,-l
6ay
uLr s J !
I/vJ
of
int er est
may engage i n
an attack
pani ckv,
i dea
the nati onal
one aspect
be-
will
i rrati onal l y.
c a n d c c i s i o n-r:i aker
a nuclear
m et wit h
after
1arge,
at
S ec o n tl . s u p e rp o r,rc r n i -l i ra r y
aJ
the
c h e \.' e s i e ::n li l i ance,
no iinor u-n c ri tc ri o n
L lonS
popul ati on
a gai nst
wilL
to defend
C onsequentl y,
c s n b e - s e e n a s p ro v o cati ve
pons t hat
r i^-^1
attack.
deci si on-makers
the popul ati on
w hereas
as among people
as w el l
attack
possi bl e
is
a n i rrati onaL,
re c o rd
polls
ner nbe rs h i p
a nucl ear
that
p o o u l a tion
th e
ra L i o n a i i tr-
opinion
to
m i l i ra te
tl re p o o r
I : ir st.
th e
a n d th e
h u rn a n b e i n g s
all
and after
c i ti z e ns,
re l a ti v e
c r owd- c on tro l l e r
among deci si on-makers
e v e g y l ri ng
4 p 6 l a fte r
+.- b
1
OF DECISION}IAKERS
ON THE MTIONALITY
our
fhi
L r r r rnki
.r \r r r bne
of
in
th e msel ves
th e i r
fh a f
r i ghr
.
aoai n
i mage of
v!
i nvoked
i nfl i ct
.l
srrch
ouLrr
e:di no
these
al so
^^+.'^-
on t his
ear t h
w onder by w hat cr it er ia
of
" norm alit y".
L:^L^-.-O\^/eI.S
r r tb r r g !
v
S UC h
aS
makes one w onder w het her
hi gher
pow ers,
mass destructi on
tcr
m illions
human bei ngs
rvhat consLi Lutes
a L L !u r r
a w ay that
w i ch
to
but
other
l ti l l i ng
dorrhtq
ahnrrf
seei ng
it
on earLh.
dca i ci nn-mnker
as not
I 'lost conm o
rati onnl
| /-\
\U
r:a c k a t
Looking
o; ' t he
rtu c l e a r
t oc ia-v ,
nost
ci
rd .c e
rr
n " n :'
egen
oi
ti :e
s uc h
re fi e c ti o n s
i ;i :a t
is
we all
pain
j. nt o
except
d e a th ,
ins t an t
and
was s r' s i e rn i c ,
s uic id e
vlho woulci
oi
conceal-
i nf ell e c tu a l i z e d
--
O r , v ri l l
I nq I
f I' a rr w a ra
duc e
sone
self
i ' ;a r ,
ir uc le a r
+u:jIltF
: i- ^'
g
unoo
th e
^
1r
look
r e hcpe
:,rri ri e n
is
to
Needl e s s
of ' t he
Lr:fi.:r-if
!If
lrL{I:r.
b e ar:l e
say,
iq
!D
\raPnnjno'
Jearrj-rrb
for
i he
of
divioe
ii'er e
i ;l anners
i nC i vi dua l
,
some l l j -nd
of
tendenci es
tne v
th,ri
ti ghl y
r
will
looks
j .;l -ace.
ri ucl ear
it
even
reasc,ned,
not
c is
vri t;en
ueeded
the
h; - ghly
tl :ey
of
f O i- nf r c-
i ng
to
of
som e-
course,
nanaged
saw
threat
i nl roduc
cc' .i l -* ,
not
r *ilake t hat
i n:toral .
even
concl usi on,
forner
rneasures
a
r,,.' i thout
but
th ey
.rvere a-ol e
ouercomi n3
onl y
the
f i nal l y,
,
and
i hey
arrns,
be thei r
re;or
di saS l er
l :i eapong,
i i ;s
ni ol :e l i ke
p re sent
fnr
rvr
in
some i -oi nt
gradl ral i y
atavi sri c,
j l l a n y s e l f-c o rre c ti n 3
uJrr
vi ctim s
they
not
of
rj l Ost a60niZing
the
;l i l l
ti :at
in
l ;l anni n3
the
conni tti n;
at
i rea.sures,
naki na
of
tn e
say:
a-r-so nucl ear
l a tte
iu
to
headrns
i rre l e v a n t,
t;re
of
i toi nt
thi s?
a cl oak
of
?Jei e a:non.t t jt en
* i -sorderuas
under
of
o nuJ-i -ty?
);i o rc l e t ha.l -
u
che
hu, ; ir ed
i vrr ich,
1-l ace
yri :o i ?ere
ni l l i ons
one
uhe seconci
-6* F
i al i e
i nI_i ctl n;
sel f-desfructi ve
c o j -l e C ti v e I y
..,n o n l e d g e
k n, r r ' ; l e d g e
t nig
ra t:
e v e n tu a l l y
' ' -1 r-'
ti re
vi ;;o nai ntai n
tro r
say,
not
un;ers;ani
tnose
th erosel ves
to
ti ,e y
oi her
l i e to
b u i l t-i -n
-c o r' re c ti n ,;
-: d44rJ
the
f or
arry;roci y capabl e
tnere
n io
genoC i oe ,
;i m.:s1
is
say:
u h e ' ' vrrcl e ci vi l -i zati on
t:a s
it
b e c a .u s e
m ana g e C to
for
o .i ' tri * u 5ht,
tr;o :,e
fhey
rl i ve
saX r
on pur
trru.r€
eve
E l l i gi d
h o r,r are
and
tv ;o s c j ro o l s
c r az y
r' 1i l 1
visi- b. Le
i ,l o, e pat ti cul -ar' 1y,
!," ;ar di d
a r:ucl e ar
c c n I ei ri i .' l ai edo
c O n mi i -t' i n $
on millions
::efl ect
even
oi ' t:" i em
ci vi l j -zl .rti o' r,
(provi oed
hope?
J)roca.r:1e ccnsequences
o i ' ou.r' r.i 1h;rnares
order.
future
c e ntury
; r eo1:1 e i r,ro g e ri o u s l -y
, , ' i r r r r!^ a d o l -= -i ' l
a
be i n
sone
pa:-t
onl y
-
:' i i g;ht
,:l v e n 1f
)?
iy
i runl red,
one
sven
tots^i rl e,
a ri ucl e.i r." .,ar,
h c ' r' ; ri ri l l
i i te . L i e th
i' r alf
c our s e ,
and
:l o ri l i nate
th e rn -
L e :,l p u e d u o a s k :
' ar ' c
revi c," ,' ,r of
Il U n e r-e r' l e c ti o rrs
t c r nor ro w ,
ir
l ri i i s
tn i s
" " ri l l ui th
for
i he
by ' oh e t ine
ii
ce the
the
fi nal -
nope
ourcone
of
to
jud; nent .
r : econin6
be
what
dqg