The Global Wind Supply Chain and Market Outlook
Alstom`s Haliade 150-6.0MW prototype out to the North Sea
Speaker: Feng Zhao
13 March 2015, IDA Copenhagen
Table of Contents
About FTI Consulting
Global Wind Supply Chain Update
Global Wind Market Outlook
2
About FTI Consulting
FTI Consulting overview
Overview
History & scale
Global business advisory firm
Established in 1982
Dedicated to helping organisations protect and
enhance enterprise value
>US$ 1.5 billion revenues, NYSE listed
>4,300 staff across 26 countries on six continents
Global reach
Services
Five divisions:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
4
Economic Consulting
Corporate Finance / Restructuring
Forensic & Litigation Consulting
Technology
Strategic Communications
Introduction FTI-CL Energy
5
Our Energy Capability
Team
Example Clients
Economists
Industry specialists
Ex-regulators
Accountants
Capabilities
1.
2.
•
•
•
•
3.
4.
5.
6.
Strategy
Policy & Regulation
Wholesale & Retail market
Transmission network regulation
Distribution network regulation
Renewable and carbon market
Competition economics & State Aid
Disputes (economic, commercial, and technical)
M&A / Transaction Support
Energy Market Research
6
Global Wind Supply Chain Update
Global Wind Supply Chain Update 2015
This report :
Examines the supply chain situation for
12 key components (350+ suppliers) and
three key materials (150+ suppliers),
which account for more than 95% of a
wind turbine’s total cost;
Includes an assessment of offshore wind
farm balance of plant and the forecast for
the global wind market growth to 2018;
and
Summarizes the world’s top 15 turbine
manufacturers‘ supply chain strategies
and supplier relationship matrix.
8
Global Wind Turbine Manufacturing -
Five manufacturing bases
9
Geographic distribution of suppliers
10
Global Wind Supply Chain – Key Components & Materials
95% of
turbine
cost
Source: FTI Intelligence, January 2015
11
Global Wind Supply Chain – In the past two years
The slump in demand in 2013 caused by the economic recession and by
policy uncertainty and inconsistency in Europe, the US, China and India
a Quarter of
Businesses
Out of the Global
Wind Supply Chain
The wind industry saw 129 suppliers collapse or leave in the past 24 months, of which
88 from Asia, 23 from Europe, and 18 from North America.
Top-5 components suffered the most: Towers, Castings, Forgings, Blades, Generators
Source: FTI Intelligence, January 2015
12
Supply vs. Demand – Overview of current and future situation
In general, no constraints have been
identified in the global supply chain.
Supply of most components and
materials is expected to significantly
exceed demand in 2015.
Currently, there is a delicate balance in
the offshore wind supply chain, but the
installation of next generation turbine
indicates a potential sourcing challenge
for large components.
Most of key components and materials
will continue to face the challenge of
overcapacity, but bearings (ultra-large
tapered roller bearings) and rare earth
materials are expected to be in short
supply through 2018.
Despite significant overcapacity, a
strong regional imbalance exists,
which still causes a sourcing challenge
in some regions.
Source: FTI Intelligence, December 2014
13
Global Wind Supply Chain – Offshore balance of plant ( Europe)
Factors cause concerns for
the supply chain of BOP:
Offshore wind turbine
technology (10+ MW =
bigger and heavier =
logistic challenge )
Policy uncertainty
Offshore oil & gas
14
Global Wind Market Outlook
Global Offshore Wind Power Market Forecast
Annual offshore wind
installation will be a level
of 3.5 – 5.5 GW in the
forecast period;
Nearly 23 GW offshore
wind capacity is likely to
be added between 20152019;
UK, China and Germany
are expected to be the Top
3 offshore wind markets
by the end of 2019;
Source: FTI Intelligence, January 2015
US offshore wind
becomes more uncertain.
16
Upcoming Publication – Global Wind Market Update- Demand & Supply 2014
This report :
Examines the development of the land
based and offshore wind markets in 2014;
Provides rankings for the major turbine
OEMs and owner-operators, market
segmentation, technology trends, market
structures and economics and penetration
rates; and
Includes global wind market forecasts for
2015-2020 and predictions through to
2025.
17
The Team
Research team overview
Our team
 Senior
 In-depth experience individuals
 Hands-on operational experience
Our approach
 Small and senior teams
 80/20
 Speed
 Focus on key issues
 Data and hypotheses driven
 Engagement with key personnel
What we do not do
 ‘Tick the box’ exercises
 Seek 100% evidence
 Burden management
 ‘Reinvent the wheel’
We have a senior, experienced team with deep industry knowledge.
Aris Karcanias (United Kingdom)
 Leads the Renewable Energy team
 Strategic, Policy, M&A, and dispute
advisory
 Supply Chain & technology
commercialisation expert
Andreas von Keitz (Germany)
 Leads the EMEA operational
Transformation business
 Transactional advisory
 Operational restructuring & improvement
Feng Zhao (Denmark)
 Leads the Wind Energy Team
 Strategy, Policy, and market entry and
growth projection
 Supply chain & product portfolio
Christian Axmann (Germany)
 Cost reduction and operational
improvement
 Supply Chain expert
 Engineering Industry
Chris LeWand (United States)
 Co-leads the Clean Tech team
 Expert in M&A, strategic and financial
planning, performance improvement,
business valuation, restructuring and
interim management service (CFO/CRO)
Dr Fabien Roques (France)
 Energy economist focused on
European power market modelling,
market design and regulation
 Ex-Senior Economics with the IEA
Boaz Moselle (United Kingdom)
 Energy economist focused on competition
and regulation.
 Testified on renewables generation,
security of supply, and GB power market
Athanasia Arapogianni (United Kingdom)
 Renewable Energy team
 Strategy, Policy, and Finance
 Finance expert
Jason Mann (United Kingdom)
 Expert on design / operation of retail,
wholesale energy markets and
interconnectors. Supporting Ofgem.
 Technical and financial DD on offshore
transmission assets.
Victor Musuku (Denmark)
 Renewable Energy team
 Policy and market research
 Emerging wind power markets expert
19
Critical Thinking at the Critical Time ™
Contact Details:
Contact Details:
Feng Zhao
Director/Head of Wind Energy
Aris Karcanias
Managing Director
+45 2046 2658 direct
+45 3113 5677 mobile
[email protected]
+44 20 3727 1282 direct
+44 77 1784 6696 mobile
[email protected]
Gl. Kongevej 1
1610 Copenhagen
Denmark
200 Aldersgate,
Aldersgate Street,
London, EC1A 4HD
United Kingdom