Crime Trends
Criminal victimization trends provide useful insights by positioning annual data within a broader context. To estimate
these trends, researchers rely on two national sources of crime data: the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Uniform
Crime Reporting Program (UCR) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics’s National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). Both
the UCR and the NCVS have been collected for decades. While their methodologies and findings differ slightly, each
resource provides critical information necessary to understand crime and victimization in the United States. For more
information, see the Crime and Victimization in the United States fact sheet in this series.
While the rate of criminal victimization has decreased dramatically over the past 50 years, many in the general public
believe crime rates have increased. According to Gallup polls conducted since the mid-to-late 1990s, more than half of
Americans have consistently reported that they believe there is more crime in the United States today than there was a year
ago.A This misconception among the general public can be attributed to a variety of factors, but importantly, it demonstrates
the necessity of tracking trends. Trends on crime and victimization provide researchers, victim service providers, policymakers,
and the public with the information they need to accurately interpret, understand, and act on criminal victimization.
Violent CrimeB
Property CrimeB
Property Crime
ratePer
per
1,000
people
(Rate
1,000
Individuals)
(Rate
Individuals)
rateper
per1,000
1,000
people
10
100
10
8
6
4
100
80
60
6.8
3.7
2.0
40
2
20
0
0
1965
1965 1970
1970 1975
1975 1980
1980 1985
1985 1990
1990 1995
1995 2000
2000 2005
2005 2010
2010 2015
2015
Violent Crime Rate per 1,000
45.9
22.5
24.9
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Violent Crime Rate per 1,000
Without a longer trajectory, year-to-year changes in data seem like emerging trends. For example, violent crime is 86%
higher today than in 1965; however, it is also 50% lower than in 1991.B The rate of property crime follows a similar trend:
today’s rate is 11% higher compared to the rate in 1965, but has fallen by more than 50% when compared to 1991.B Changes
in criminal victimization are always evaluated within the context of time, and changing that context—selecting a different
subset of years—influences whether criminal victimization appears to be increasing or decreasing.
Victimization
Reported
to Lawto
Enforcement
% victimization
reported
police C
75%
75%
Did You Know?
59.0
60%
49.9
45%40.9
32.1
30%
54.9
45.8
46.5
38.7
34.6
15%
Serious violent crime
Violent
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
1995
0%
The NCVS asks participants if they
reported crime incidents to police:
In 2015, an estimated 55% of serious
violent victimizations were reported
to the authorities, compared to 47%
of all violent victimizations and
35% of all property victimizations.
Since 1993, there has been no real
change in crimes reported to law
enforcement.B
Violent crime
Property crime
Serious
Property
2017 National Crime Victims’ Rights Week: Crime and Victimization Fact Sheets
UCR vs. NCVS Crime Victimization Trends
The Uniform Crime Reports for 2015 show an increase
in serious violent crimes compared to 2014. Aggravated
assault, murder, and forcible rape rose by 5%, 11%, and 6%,
respectively. Robbery increased by less
than 1%.B
Compared to the UCR, the NCVS did not report a similar
increase in serious violent victimization between 2014
and 2015. Aggravated assault and robbery declined by an
estimated 25% and 13%, respectively. Rape/sexual assault,
though, increased by an estimated 52%.C
NCVSViolent
Violent Crime Crime C
NCVS
UCRViolent
ViolentCrime
CrimeB
UCR
rate1,000
per 1,000
people
(Rate Per
Individuals)
55
4
ratePer
per1,000
1,000Individuals)
people
(Rate
15
4.2
13.5
2.9
3
2.4
2.2
2
1.4
6.3
5.2
1.0
3.1
2.6
3.0
0.5
0.3
2.1
0.1
1.6
0.05
0.06
00.1
1995 1997
1997 1999
1999 2001
2001 2003
2003 2005
2005 2007
2007 2009
2009 2011
2011 2013
2013 2015
2015
1995
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Forcible Rape
Robbery
Agg.
Assault
Murder
Forcible rape
Rape/Sexual
assault
Aggravated assault
Aggravated
assault
Rape/Sexual
Assault
Robbery
Agg. Assault
Murder
Robbery
Robbery
1
0.4
The UCR and the NCVS both report a downward trend in property crime. However, the NCVS consistently reports higher
levels of larceny-theft, burglary, and motor vehicle theft—which highlights an important distinction between the UCR
and the NCVS: the UCR aggregates property victimizations reported by individuals, while the NCVS collects information
on property from a representative sample of U.S. households. As a result, the two figures cannot be compared directly.
Furthermore, because the UCR is measured by the number of incidents reported to law enforcement, it also includes property
victimizations occurring at commercial businesses.
UCR Property CrimeB
NCVS Property CrimeC
NCVS
Property
Crime
rate per
1,000
households
UCR
Property
rate
per 1,000Crime
people
35
300
35
28 30.4
22.9
240
17.8
120
21
14
9.9
7.3
4.2
7 5.6
0
4.9
2.2
1995
1995 1997
1997 1999
1999 2001
2001 2003
2003 2005
2005 2007
2007 2009
2009 2011
2011 2013
2013 2015
2015
Burglary
Larceny-Theft
300
Larceny-theft
Burglary
Motor vehicle theft
Motor Vehicle Theft
SOURCES
A Justin McCarthy, “More Americans Say Crime Is Rising in U.S.,” (Gallup Poll,
2014), http://www.gallup.com/poll/186308/americans-say-crime-rising.
aspx
B FBI, Crime in the United States, 1995 - 2015, (U.S. Department of Justice),
https://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/State/RunCrimeStatebyState.
cfm; Table 1, https://ucr.fbi.gov/ucr-publications
Larceny-theft
Burglary
Motor vehicle theft
243.9
180
120.3
84.4
54.4
60
30.6
17.1
0
22.0
8.6
4.3
1995
1995 1997
1997 1999
1999 2001
2001 2003
2003 2005
2005 2007
2007 2009
2009 2011
2011 2013
2013 2015
2015
Burglary
Larceny-Theft
Motor Vehicle Theft
C Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, Concatenated File, 1992-2014, (U.S. Department of Justice)