3rd Quarter of 2016
Second 10-day Period – March 2014
Second 10-day Period – March 2014
The Third Age Consumer Price Index (IPC-3i), which measures the change rate of family consumption
basket comprised of mostly 60-plus year old people, recorded a 0.67% change in the third quarter of
2016. The cumulative rate in the last 12 months for the IPC-3i is 8.11%. With this result, the indicator
change was above the 8.10% cumulative rate for the IPC-BR within the same period.
Table 1 – Change rates in the quarter and the last 12 months for IPC-3i and IPC-BR
%
Index
Quarter 3
12 Months
IPC-3i
0.67
8.11
IPC-BR
0.76
8.10
Source: FGV/IBRE
In the transition from quarter 2 of 2016 to quarter 3 of 2016, the IPC-3i rate decreased 0.97 percentage
point, from 1.64% to 0.67%. Five of the eight expense categories comprising the index decreased. The
main influence was the Health and Personal Care group, decreasing from 4.84% to 1.82%. Within this
expense category, the main influence was medications in general (0.23% in quarter 3, compared to
10.19% in quarter 2).
The following groups were also an influence to the decrease of IPC-3i in the third quarter of 2016: Food
(1.00% to minus 0.22%), Housing (1.29% to 0.72%), Miscellaneous Expenses (3.92% to 0.39%) and Apparel
(2.09% to 0.31%). The main influences within these expense categories were: greens and vegetables
(minus 5.01% to minus 28.20%), residential water and sewerage tariff (7.44% to 0.26%), cigarettes (8.91%
to minus 2.06%) and clothes (2.26% to 0.11%), respectively.
However, the following groups went up: Education, Reading and Recreation (minus 0.96% to 1.34%),
Transportation (minus 0.20% to 0.22%) and Communication (0.38% to 0.52%). The main influences were:
excursion and tour (minus 9.24% to minus 2.05%), ethanol (minus 16.51% to 0.46%) and paid TV monthly
subscription (0.00% to 1.32%), respectively.
IBRE-FGV
Third Age Consumer Price Index – IPC-3i
Table 2 – Percentage changes and cumulative influence of IPC-3i in the last four quarters
EXPENSE CATEGORIES
FOURTH
QUARTER/2015
%
Influence
Change
(p.p.)
FIRST
QUARTER/2016
%
Influence
Change
(p.p.)
SECOND
QUARTER/2016
Influence
% Change
(p.p.)
THIRD
QUARTER/2016
%
Influence
Change
(p.p.)
IPC - 3i
2.87
2.87
2.72
2.72
1.64
1.64
0.67
0.67
Food
5.37
1.08
5.37
1.06
1.00
0.20
-0.22
-0.10
Housing
1.75
0.55
1.50
0.48
1.29
0.40
0.72
0.22
Apparel
1.99
0.08
0.27
0.01
2.09
0.08
0.31
0.01
Health and Personal Care
1.95
0.37
2.03
0.41
4.84
0.92
1.82
0.41
Education, Reading and Recreation
2.51
0.12
3.63
0.18
-0.96
-0.05
1.34
0.06
Transportation
4.52
0.61
2.87
0.40
-0.20
-0.03
0.22
0.03
Miscellaneous Expenses
0.49
0.01
3.87
0.10
3.92
0.10
0.39
0.01
Communication
1.08
0.05
2.01
0.09
0.38
0.02
0.52
0.02
Source: FGV/IBRE
MAJOR INFLUENCES
The tables below present the items that most influenced the IPC-3i in the third quarter of 2016.
Table 3: Major positive influences accumulated
in the third quarter of 2016
CHANGE
%
INFLUENCE
(p.p.)
Health plan and insurance
3.18
0.32
Household repair labor
Long shelf life milk
3.22
10.53
0.10
0.08
Meals at bars and restaurants
1.69
0.07
New vehicle
1.49
0.05
ITEM
Source: FGV/IBRE
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Third Age Consumer Price Index – IPC-3i
Table 4: Major negative influences accumulated
in the third quarter of 2016
CHANGE
%
-47.12
INFLUENCE
(p.p.)
-0.32
Onion
-52.74
-0.17
Residential electricity tariff
-2.69
-0.11
Gasoline
-1.79
-0.06
Lettuce
-19.23
-0.05
ITEM
Potatoes
Source: FGV/IBRE
Table 5 – Percentage changes on a monthly basis and quarterly accumulated related to IPC-3i and IPC-BR
%
Index
Oct/15 Nov/15 Dec/15
Q4
Jan/15 Feb/15 Mar/15
Q1
Apr/16 May/16 Jun/16
Q2
Jul/16 Aug/16 Sep/16
Q3
IPC-3i
0.73
1.18
0.93
2.87
1.59
0.68
0.43
2.72
0.52
0.76
0.35
1.64
0.24
0.26
0.17
0.67
IPC-BR
0.76
1.00
0.88
2.67
1.78
0.76
0.50
3.07
0.49
0.64
0.26
1.39
0.37
0.32
0.07
0.76
Source: FGV/IBRE
The next release of IPC-3i, regarding the 4th quarter of 2016 will be on January 13, 2017 .
Rio de Janeiro, October 13, 2016
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