Heston Blumenthal
Will a fat tax cure Britain’s obesity crisis?
DEMENTIA
CARE
How will we meet the
growing challenge?
GREEN
HOMES
Is renewable energy the
key to cheaper bills?
Britain in 2015
E S S E N T I A L R E S E A R C H O N T H E I S S U E S T H AT M AT T E R
DIVIDED
GENERATIONS
Why the wealth gap
between young and
old is still widening
Britain in 2015
Cutting a new deal with Europe
Devolution fallout rumbles on
The complex route to No. 10
How 2015 could change everything
£5.50
Going it
alone?
ESRC RESEARCH MAKING AN IMPACT
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SOCIETY NOW – MAKING SENSE OF SOCIETY
FOREWORD
WELCOME TO
BRITAIN IN
2015
50 YEARS OF SHAPING SOCIETY
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Britain in 2015 is a publication of the Economic
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research communication.
Britain in 2015, the Economic and Social Research Council’s (ESRC)
magazine, is unique in presenting how scientific research influences
life in Britain today. The ESRC celebrates its 50th anniversary in 2015
and to mark the occasion we reflect on some of the key achievements
of social science over the past 50 years (page 64). We also look at
issues that researchers have highlighted as particular concerns for 2015
and well-known commentators reflect on the findings (page 6).
Politics is perhaps this issue’s most significant topic. The vote in
the referendum on Scottish independence, although close, has for the
time being halted the move to an independent Scotland. But it has
opened up further issues in terms of how power and decision-making is
distributed between devolved powers and the UK Parliament. Members
of the ESRC Future of the UK and Scotland programme present a
round-up of what the referendum result will mean over the coming
years (page 12). The traditional system of party politics is in turmoil
with UKIP presenting a challenge to all three main political parties.
Experts from the British Election Survey tell us on page 18 how, based
on their research, the vote might be split in the next election.
The NHS is dear to most people’s hearts and each of the main
political parties presents a different view of how it might be sustained or
even saved. But how is the service really faring in the face of structural
reforms, austerity pressures, costly medical advances and more people
living longer? Find out on page 26. Elsewhere in the magazine we look
at how old age and associated illnesses are creating one of the major
issues for governments to solve. More of us are living longer, increasing
the chances that dementia will affect us in some way. What is being
done to meet the challenge and how can social science help those with
dementia and their carers (page 80)?
The economy continues to give experts cause for concern. Unless
growth is very strong, achieving deficit reduction at the speed that all
political parties are promising will be painful (page 39). What potential
fiscal policies might have trouble dealing with future unexpected
shocks? And for workers, real wages are still falling and the prospects of
significant increases for most remain bleak. Find out whose salaries are
being hit the hardest on page 52.
We hope you enjoy reading Britain in 2015 and discovering how
social science research has shaped and continues to shape British society.
COVER IMAGE: GETTY
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Editor, Britain in 2015
BRITAIN IN 2015 3
CONTENTS
CONTENTS
BRITAIN IN
2015
ON THE COVER
06 HESTON BLUMENTHAL:
The Big Issues for 2015
12 DEVOLUTION FALLOUT &
THE ROUTE TO NO. 10 :
Scotland the Brave; Poll Positions (p18)
54 DIVIDED GENER ATIONS:
Under Pressure;
Healthier, Wealthier Retirement (p58)
74 GREEN HOMES:
Costing the Earth
80 DEMENTIA CARE:
Living with Dementia
118 GOING IT ALONE?
06
64
BRITAIN IN 2015
SPECIAL ESRC
ANNIVERSARY FEATURE
06 THE BIG ISSUES IN 2015
We highlight the important stories
making the news in 2015, and
affecting your life, with revealing
insights from key opinion-formers
64 50 YEARS OF SOCIAL CHANGE
How has the Economic and Social
Research Council supported research
over 50 years to improve the
wellbeing of British society?
12
26
39
POLITICS &
GOVERNANCE
PUBLIC
SERVICES
MONEY
& BUSINESS
12
26 LIFE SUPPORT
What impact have recent cuts
and reforms had on the NHS?
30 OPINION: The London Effect
31 THINKING SMALL /
39 SHOCK ABSORBER
New government or old in 2015, what path
will it follow to reduce debt and deficit?
42 OPINION: Averting Financial Crisis
43 THE HOUSING MONEY-GO-ROUND
32 SAFE AS HOUSES?
34 RELOCATION, RELOCATION /
44 OUT OF THE LOOP
46 THE FUNDING FALLOUT
47 WARM WELCOME /
16
17
18
20
22
23
24
25
SCOTLAND THE BRAVE
An analysis of the referendum
on Scottish independence
OPINION: A Nudge in the Right Direction
HOW WE LIVE OUR LIVES /
BUILDING A BRIDGE
POLL POSITIONS
MYTHS OF THE GREAT WAR /
MIGRATION MATTERS /
DEMOCRACY UNDER THE
MICROSCOPE
CANNABIS COSTS
PEOPLE ON THE MOVE
OPINION: Age-old conflict
FIGURES: Politicians Behaving Badly
4 BRITAIN IN 2015
WINNERS & LOSERS
35
36
37
38
SIZE MATTERS
THE GRAMMAR DIFFERENCE
FORCE FOR GOOD
OPINION: To Trust a Policeman
FIGURES: Behind Closed Doors
/ WHAT A WRITE OFF
ALL IN THE MIND?
48 AUCTIONS FOR CASH /
WHEN EXPERTS AGREE
50 OPINION: The Resilient High Street
51 FIGURES: Student Finances
CONTENTS
52
68
80
JOBS
& GROWTH
ENVIRONMENT
SCIENCE &
WELLBEING
52
68 STRESS FRACTURE
What can we learn from
the fracking industry in the US?
72 OPINION: When the Heat is on
73 KEEPING WARM IN A COLD
80 LIVING WITH DEMENTIA
What help is available for those with
dementia or their carers?
84 OPINION: Breast Benefits
85 SEASONED ADVICE
86 ACROSS THE SPECTRUM
88 TWO’S COMPANY /
UNDER PRESSURE
Wage levels have suffered since the recession
began, but who has taken the biggest hit?
56 OPINION: The Generation Gap
57 THE DEEPEST CUT
58 HEALTHIER, WEALTHIER
RETIREMENT
60 INNOVATE OR IMITATE? /
GREEN GROWTH
61 STRONG SCIENCE,
WEAK INNOVATION
62 OPINION: Roads to Recovery?
63 FIGURES: High Street Boom and Bust
74
76
77
78
79
CLIMATE / INVESTIGATING
GREEN CRIME
COSTING THE EARTH
ENERGY TALKS
CLIMATE CONTROL
OPINION: Survival of the Future
FIGURES: Renewable Energies
STRESS TESTING /
PILING ON THE POUNDS
90 OPINION: Resistance Fighters
91 FIGURES: Dementia Care in the UK
92
106
118
SOCIETY
CULTURE,
MEDIA & SPORT
INTERNATIONAL
92 THE GENERATION GAME
How our attitudes change to key social
issues over the course of a lifetime
96 OPINION: Cohabitation on the Rise
97 A WOMAN’S WORK /
118 GOING IT ALONE?
106 LUCKY FOR SOME
Bingo is our most benign form of gambling,
How would the UK splitting from Europe
but it’s also a burgeoning global industry
affect its role on the world stage?
110 OPINION: Has Video Killed the
122 OPINION: East Splits with West
Radio Star?
123 A CRY FOR HELP /
111 ’TWAS EVER THUS / LANGUAGE
THE OTHER VICTIMS OF AIDS
AS A COPING MECHANISM
124 WHERE NEXT FOR NATO?
112 DIGITAL DIVIDE?
126 HOW POVERTY STRIKES
114 TWO-WHEEL REVOLUTION
127 EGYPT’S FUTURE /
115 TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING
THE POWERS THAT BE
116 OPINION: PM or President?
128 LOOKING AT LEGITIMACY
117 FIGURES: The Paralympic Games
129 OPINION: What Price Security?
130 FIGURES: The Costs of Conflict
RELIGIOUS BELIEF
98 THE PARENT TRAP
100 HEALTHY METAPHORS /
102
103
104
105
LOVE THY NEIGHBOUR /
LOW STANDARDS
QUESTIONS OF CLASS
VOCAL DIFFERENCES
OPINION: The Elusive Leg-up
FIGURES: Elite Britain
BRITAIN IN 2015 5