Livestock Early Warning System
map explanations
(manual)
"Gobi Forage" project
Content
1.
Introduction "Gobi Forage Project"...........................................................................3
2.
Explanation and samples of maps produced by project.........................................5
3.
Table 1. Some suggested actions to be taken on pasture early warning
system.........................................................................................................................11
4.
All about the RANGELANDS.....................................................................................13
5.
Proper use of pasture................................................................................................14
6.
Impact of improper pasture use...............................................................................15
7.
Dominant plants of Tuv aimag pasture....................................................................16
Attachment 1. Radio broadcast information..................................................................................... 24
2
"Gobi Forage" project
I. Introduction "Gobi Forage Project"
General:
"Gobi Forage" project, funded from USAID, USDA and World Bank Household Livelihoods
support program and managed by Texas Agricultural Mechanics University, has being
implemented by Mercy Corps in Mongolia since 2004. Gobi Forage project areas includes
Gobi-Altai, Gobi-Sumber, Bayanhongor, Ovorhangai, Omnogobi, Dundgobi, Dornogobi and
Tuv aimags.
Project Aimags:
Gobi-Altai, Gobi-Sumber, Bayanhongor,
Ovorhangai,
Omnogobi,
Dundgobi,
Dornogobi and Tuv aimags.
Project Goal:
• To
develop
risk
management
technologies to provide drought and
winter disaster early warning to improve
rural business in the livestock sector of
the Gobi & Central region- Tuv aimag;
Program Objectives:
Develop a forage monitoring system that provides near-real time spatial and temporal
assessment of current and forecasted forage conditions for Mongolia livestock producers;
Develop a nutritional monitoring system for sheep, goats, cattle, camels and horses that
provides an assessment of the nutritional balance, changes in body conditions and optimal
fodder interventions for Gobi livestock producers;
Develop an appropriate information and communication infrastructure and analysis delivery
system to provide herders, and local/regional government officials with information on current
and forecasted forage conditions and animal nutrition that will assist them to make timely and
specific management decisions;
I. Site Monitoring:
Collection of forage and animal nutrition data through field sampling, historical statistical
records and scientific journals;
To date, 51 forage monitoring sites from Tuv aimag have been established - the data collected
includes: plant species, livestock numbers, soil data, weather data and grazing preferences for
the plant species;
The data from the sites are entered into databases for use in forage modeling for early warning
analysis;
II. Forage Early Warning Analysis: Site monitoring data are processed with advanced simulation
modeling technology that provides an opportunity to produce eight types of maps showing current and
forecasted forage conditions every 15 days:
A simulation model called PHYGROW is used to model forage conditions at the monitoring
sites. The model outputs include total forage available per grazer, standing crop by species,
animal diets and other outputs that can be use by other models This model has been used
successfully in East Africa and the USA as a primary component of Livestock Early Warning
Systems since 1998.;
The model is able to run in near-real time using rainfall (CMORPH) and temperature data
provided on a daily basis by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
The model outputs are integrated with satellite greenness (NDVI) data using statistics to create
regional maps of current forage conditions.
A statistical procedure called Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is used for
forecasting forage conditions out to 30, 60 and 90 days into the future. These outputs are also
integrated into regional maps.
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"Gobi Forage" project
III. Dissemination and training in the use of the products: The forage information delivery and
trainings on use of the information is provided for herders, livestock producers and local and national
government officials using a variety of media;
The Tuv aimag Forage maps are produced every fifteen days - the maps are tailor made for
different geographical regions including regional, aimag, soum level even bag level if desired;
The project also produces, explanation keys for the maps, training manuals linked to the map
products and radio bulletins based on the map information;
The information is delivered to the Tuv aimag users via the internet, postal services and the
Mongolian National Radio on a weekly basis. The example of radio information is presented in
Attachment 1.
Project Impact:
Providing early warning for below normal forage conditions or catastrophic winter conditions to
reduce risk of livestock mortality and protect the ecological stability of rangeland resources;
Improving the quality of livestock products for the livestock market chain;
Helping herders and local and national government officials organize themselves to better
cope with risk and improve rangeland management;
Trained aimag, sum officials, herders and rural citizens in the use of produced forage maps for
better decision making to improve rangeland & livestock management.
The further information can be obtained in address below and project website:
Project website- http://glews.tamu.edu/mongolia/
Address:
Managed By:
Texas A&M University
2126 TAMU
Dept. Rangeland Ecology & Management
College Station, TX 77843-2126
Phone: 979-845-5548
[email protected]
Funded By:
USAID
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
USAID Global Livestock CRSP
UC Davis, California.
World Bank,
Household Livelihoods Support
Office,
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Chingeltei district
Khuvisgalchdiin Avenue-38
State building-7.
Phone:+976-322465
Fax: +976-328107.
[email protected]
4
Contact in Mongolia:
Mercy Corps, Gobi Forage
Project, #24 Peace Avenue
Ulaanbaatar
Phone: 11-461-145
[email protected]
"Gobi Forage" project
II. Explanation and samples of maps produced by project
А. Primary maps
Figure 1. Total Forage Available for grazers – Current pasture conditions
Map depicts total forage available (kg/ha) for grazing livestock in the Tuv aimag Forage region. Total
forage available represents the amount of forage that is available to all livestock grazers based on
forage intake and preferences of the kinds of livestock. It does not include species that are
unpalatable or inaccessible on
the landscape. Total forage
available is determined for 298
monitoring sites, including 51
sites within the project area of
Tuv
aimag
using
the
PHYGROW simulation model
driven by daily rainfall in the
region. The forage information
for the 298 sites later was
statistically
coupled
with
satellite greenness to produce
the regional map of forage
conditions.
This information
can be used to assess whether
current
stocking
rate
is
acceptable
for
current
conditions and whether the
stocking
rate
should
be
changed.
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"Gobi Forage" project
Figure 2. Total Forage Available for grazers – 60 Day Forecast
Map depicts total forage available (kg/ha) for grazing livestock in the Tuv aimag Forage region 60 days
from the current period. The forecast total forage available represents the amount of forage that is
projected to be available to livestock grazers based on forage intake and preferences of the kinds of
livestock. Forecast total forage available is determined for 51 monitoring sites within the project area
and for Gobi region of 298 sites
using the PHYGROW simulation
model driven by daily rainfall in
the region. The output from the
models is run through a statistical
forecasting
procedure
that
projects forage conditions out 60
days into the future. It does this
based on the current trend
compared to historical forage
trends.
The forecast forage
information for the 298 sites is
then statistically coupled with
satellite greenness for the most
similar historical time period to
produce the regional map of
forecast forage conditions. This
information
can
provide
information on probable future
forage conditions and can help
the livestock producer determine
the level of risk he/she is willing to
take in the face of decreasing or
increasing forage conditions. It
can
also
be
useful
for
government, soum, and aimag
level personnel to make early
decisions on response to drought
conditions that may need to be
implemented in the future.
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"Gobi Forage" project
Figure 3. Total Forage Available, Deviation from Long Term Average Conditions
This map depicts total forage available deviation from long-term average (or normal) for the Tuv aimag
Forage region. The current total forage available to all grazers is compared to long-term average total
forage available to determine whether forage conditions are higher or lower than average (normal) on a
percentage basis. Total forage
available indicates biomass that
is available for use by grazing
animals.
It does not include
species that are unpalatable or
inaccessible on the landscape.
The total forage deviation is
categorized as:
Very Good (> +50%);
Good (0 to + 50%);
Medium (-1 to -20%).,
Poor (-20 to -40%);
Scarce (-40 to -60%);
Drought (-60 to -80%);
Severe Drought (< -81%).
A description of these categories
and suggested actions for each of
these categories is given in Table
1.
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"Gobi Forage" project
Figure 4. 60 Day Forecast Total Forage Available, Deviation from Long Term Average
Conditions
This map depicts the 60-day forecast total forage available deviation from long-term average for the
Tuv aimag Forage region. The forecast total forage available to all grazers is compared to long-term
average total forage available to determine whether forage conditions are predicted to be higher or
lower than average (normal) on a percentage basis:
Very Good (> +50%);
Good (0 to + 50%);
Medium (-1 to -20%).,
Poor (-20 to -40%);
Scarce (-40 to -60%);
Drought (-60 to -80%);
Severe Drought (< -81).
A description of these categories and
suggested actions for each of these
categories is given in Table 1.
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"Gobi Forage" project
В. Secondary maps
Figure 5. Total Forage Available – Percent Difference from Previous 15 days
This is a difference map compared the percentage change in total forage available from current
conditions to the previous 15 days. Positive percentages indicate increases in total forage available
over the last 15 days.
Negative
percentages
indicate a decline in total
forage
available
to
grazers over the last
fifteen days.
This
information
can
be
useful in determining
where
rainfall
has
increased and resulted
in
increased
forage
production or where dry
down conditions are
occurring.
Figure 6. Vegetation Condition Index
The vegetation condition index (VCI) compares how the current green vegetation as seen from
satellites compares to the green vegetation seen by the satellite during the same period over time.
The current greenness is
statistically compared to the
historical minimum and
maximum
greenness.
Values at or near the
historical
minimum
are
declared severe drought
conditions. VCI provides an
indication
of
vegetation health.
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overall
"Gobi Forage" project
Figure 7. Vegetation Greenness – Deviation from Long-Term Average
This map compares how the current green vegetation (NDVI) as seen from satellites compares to the
long term average green vegetation as seen by the satellite during the same period over time. The
current greenness is compared to the long-term average mathematically to get a deviation from the
long-term average or normal.
Positive
percentages
indicate
vegetation
compared
average.
increases
greenness
to
long-term
Negative
percentages indicate less
greenness than long term
average. Since greenness
is an indication of plant
growth, positive increases
may
indicate
(but
vegetation
more
not
necessarily
grazeable
vegetation) than normal.
Negative
percentages
less
may
indicate
vegetation than normal.
Figure 8. Vegetation Greenness – Percent Difference from Previous 15 days
This is a difference map compared the percentage change in greenness as seen from the satellite
during the period compared
to the greenness seen in the
previous 15 days. Positive
percentages
indicate
increases in greenness over
the last 15 days. Negative
percentages
indicate
a
decline in greenness over
the last fifteen days. Since
greenness is an indication of
plant growth, this can
provide an indication of
where plants are increasing
in growth and where they are
declining in growth.
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"Gobi Forage" project
III. Table 1. Some suggested actions to be taken on pasture early warning system
Total forage available
Explanation
Examples of optional actions, measures to be taken according to the warning
Very Good or more than 50 per
Forage available to livestock is 50 to
Normal grazing practices should be pursued at these areas with relatively higher forage
cent above long term average
100% greater than long-term normal
resource and production. Animal distribution should be monitored to insure that localized
(approximately 1251-2000 kg
(historical average).
overgrazing does not occur and lack of fresh pasture and proper pasture use.
Good or 0-50 per cent above
Forage available to livestock is 0 to
Normal grazing practices should be pursued at these areas with relatively higher forage
long
50% greater than long-term normal
resource and production. Animal distribution should be monitored to insure that localized
(historical average)
overgrazing does not occur and lack of fresh pasture and proper pasture use
Medium or 1-20 percent below
Forage available to livestock is 0 to
This may be difficult to perceive by livestock producers.Information and early warnings on
than
20% below
downward tendency of forage available have to deliver to herders, livestock producers, and
of forage per hectare)
term
average
(approximately 1001-1250 kg
of forage per hectare)
long
term
average
(approximately 401-800 kg of
than long-term normal
(historical average)
forage per hectare)
officials for motivation of taking proper actions against potential natural risks. These actions
should include:
Improve animal nutrition, immune system, productivity and prepare additional fodder;
Vaccinations, improved parasite control;
Improved control animal nutritions, seek potential ways of matching of animal physiological
status with quality of forage based on scientific proven methods. (Currently, Gobi Forage
project is working on introducing new technology of animal nutrition into Mongolian livestock
sector that allows to identify body condition, the nutrition by scanning animal fecal samples
with NIRS machine. We will update you with results soon).
Animal distribution should be monitored to insure that localized overgrazing does not occur.
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"Gobi Forage" project
Table 1. cont.
Poor or 20-40 percent below
Forage available to livestock is 20 to
Forage conditions have deteriorated to a point where information on drought conditions should
than
40% below
be accelerated into the area and discussions of potential actions (selling/destocking) and/or
long
term
average
(approximately 151-400 kg of
than long-term normal
(historical average)
forage per hectare)
possible areas of movement should be initiated. Grazing of reserves should be discussed should
conditions intensify. The new fecal profiling technology should be aggressively pursued in this
phase to monitor body condition and optimize supplemental feeding.
Scarce
Forage available to livestock is 40 to
Forage
Or 40-60 percent below than
60% below
(selling/destocking, moving). Action agencies should be actively working with communities to
long
(historical average)
term
average
than long-term normal
conditions
require
significant
actions
to
reduce
risk
of
loss
of
livestock
determine potential shortfalls in overall forage supply of a region and awareness programs
(approximately 76-15 kg of
instituted on mitigation strategies to help reduce mortality losses of livestock. Use of reserve
forage per hectare)
lands is advised where available. The new fecal profiling technology should be aggressively
pursued in this phase to monitor body condition and optimize supplemental feeding/fodder.
Drought
or
60-80
percent
Forage available to livestock is 60 to
The forage supply is becoming scarcer. Emergency measures for forage/ feed access should be
below than long term average
80% below
carefully targeted to reduce rangeland deterioration. Livestock body condition and reproductive
(approximately 25-75 kg of
(historical average)
than long-term normal
forage per hectare)
capacity will decrease dramatically in this phase unless action has been taken in earlier phases
to reduce grazing pressure/provide supplementation. Loss of perennial grasses begins and
accelerates over time, resulting in loss of future forage production.
Extreme Drought or 60-80
Forage available to livestock is 80 to
The forage supply is essentially depleted for all but camels and small stock such as goats. It is
percent below than long term
100% below than long-term normal
extreme drought condition. Grazing livestock in this condition results in rangeland deterioration,
average (approximately 0-25
(historical average)
loss of future forage production capability, and increased potential for soil loss due to erosion.
kg of forage per hectare)
Especially, body condition, nutrition of the grazing animals would be extremely low and livestock
loss is expected to be higher. Bad animal condition, loss of younger animals, less production of
milk etc are main symptoms. Immediate actions have to taken.
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"Gobi Forage" project
IV. All about the RANGELANDS
Rangeland refers to a land that with vegetation cover used for livestock grazing. Rangeland covers
around 127 million hectares and/or 81.4 per cent of Mongolian territory.
In summer and fall seasons, 11.9 million tons of fodder with digestible protein of 1.2 million tons is
required to meet needs of all livestock (considering mongolian livestock physiological needs) in the
country which can be sourced from rangelands. However, in winter and spring seasons, 18.1 tons of
millions of grass and/or 5.8 million tons of fodder with digestible protein of 0.4 million tons is required
for all the livestock of Mongolia. Livestock takes protein less by 56.8-72.9 g than required per day in
winter and spring times. The pasturelands is not used only by livestock, we have to include other wild
animals, herbivores.
One of main factors that influence on pasture use is pasture water supply. During socialists times, 6570 per cent of the country's pasture were supplied with wells and other water sources. Up to date, 6075 per cent of deep-drilling and other engineeral wells and 90 per cent of wells with short "chimney"
built during this period are cannot be used anymore. That's why this is one of key factors that results in
overgrazing and improper use of pasture.
Plant community of vegetation that cover the pasturelands can be divided into 201 main types
consisted of over 2800 plant species- 600 out of these plant species are significantly useful in terms of
fodder. These forage plants can be divided into following main 5 categories:
•
•
•
•
•
Grass-its stem consisted of bulbs;
Legume -seeds of these plants matures at the bulbs;
Sedge-herders usually call these plants as ulun;
Plants with tuberous stem- these plants form underground tubers, which accumulate nutrients.
Forb-other grassy plants with wide leaves.
The territory of Mongolia is divided into six vegetation zones (alpine/high-mountain, taiga, foreststeppe, steppe, desert-steppe, and desert) by their different terrain, climate, flora and fauna:
Figure 9. Natural zones of Mongolia
High-Mountain, Taiga zone: Its territory
covers about 3 per cent of of overall
pasturelands- locates in areas with thin
grassy coverage and elevation of more
than 1700m above sea level. Amount of
annual precipition is relatively higher but
due to its clumpy tundra soil heat required
for plant growth is insufficient. Xerophytic
and mesophytic cold-tolerant plants are
dominant in the zone.
Taiga zone: Takes 4.1 per cent out of
total pasture- Taiga is located mostly at
flat tops of average height and
middle/side parts of high-mountain area.
Due to higher annual precipitation, moisty
plants are dominant.
Forest-Steppe zone: Stretches from the lower slopes of the mountains to the steppe zone locating
25,1 per cent of total pasture. Grass-forb, forb-festuca are dominant pastures.
Steppe zone: The steppe zone spans across locating about 26,1 per cent of total pasture. Needle
grass- cleistongenes, needle grass-shrub, lime grass-forb are dominant pastures.
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"Gobi Forage" project
Desert-Steppe zone: Stretches from southern steppe zone to border of grand desert of Central Asia
(27,5 per cent of total pasture). The main pasture dominant plants are gobi needle grass -onion and
salsola as well.
Desert zone: The zone located at the northern part of Central Asian desert area and divided into two
parts: rocky desert and sandy desert. The zone covers about 17.5 percent of country's total area; its
vegetation/plant community is very scarce, mostly brushy plants grow over there. salsola, brown thistle
are main dominant pastures.
V. Proper use of pasture
Linking characteristics of pasture plant growth with animal grazing
Plant growth preference: We all know that photosynthesis is the process plant feeding.
Photosynthesis is basicall process of how plant intakes carbon from air with its leaves and how it
feeded with minerals and water transmitted from soil through its root and how it produces nutritive
elements with direct impact of sunlight. These elements are eaten by livestock, herbivores. All these
processes take place at the leaf system. In other words, plant leaf is factory where its food is produced.
Plant takes 95 per cent of its food from air. Outstanding 5 per cent is sourced from soil in way of water,
mineral and nutrition. In other words, plant absorbs carbonate through its leaf system from air and it
produces nutrients useful for herbivores at its leaf system. As the production is running, storing excess
products are essential for further production and growth. This excess nutrient is stored at plant’s root
system from where plant growth takes its source of energy and nutrition. As we can see, root plays
two roles: stores excess nutritive products and transmits minerals and water from soil into leaf system.
Strong development of leaf system has to be well developed for normal growth of the plants.
Figure 10. Photosynthesis Process
m in er als
The plant growth takes place amongst strong
and continous competition. Starting from
vegetation layers, any two forage plants of the
pasture compete with each other for space for
growth. Improper pasture use will result in
pasture-overgrazing, shortening of underground
plant root and weak root system. Therefore,
plants start to loose its space for normal growth
for less nutrient plants like weed etc.
Pasture carrying capacity: The capacity is a phenomen that how vegetation and production of the
pasture is kept normaly when the pasture is used properly. Decreased pasture carrying capacity
results in overgrazed pasture with less nutritive value; rational use of the pasture/grasslands is a key
for keeping the carrying capacity at maximum point. These two factors have close relationshop.
Palatibility/plant preferences: Palatibility is how the forage plants are eaten by livestock?. Livestock
consumes forage plant upon on selection: they select and eat most nutritive plants at first and then
start to eat less preferred and undesirable plants when the pasture is overgrazed or forage condition is
worse. The plant species eaten by the livestock quickly and well are called as preferred plant species.
You can observe and find out/categorize the plant species for your consideration.
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"Gobi Forage" project
VI. Impact of improper pasture use
Every herder, livestock producer should keep in mind that improper use of pasture and over-grazing
result in the following negative phenomena/results.
А. What are main factors of natural disasters: drought and dzud? and why?
Main reasons of drought- mainly no rainfall and overheating. How does it rain? The rain is natural
water (hydrologic) cycle. Rain plays a major role in the hydrologic cycle in which moisture from the
oceans, rivers, seas evaporates, condenses into clouds, precipitates back to earth (soil depth), and
eventually returns to the ocean via streams and rivers to repeat the cycle again. There is also a small
amount of water vapor that respires from plants and evaporates to join other water molecules in
condensing into clouds. Improper pasture use and degraded pasture disable plants to suck water from
soil depth and, even though it rained, the water conductivity into soil, and water evaporation of plants
reduce significantly. All these badly result in hydrological cycle.
Why dzud takes place, then?
Scarcity of pasture yield straigthly results in deficit/supply of animal fodder. From another side, there is
a logic that almost fixed amount of annual precipation falls into certain area: if there was not any rain in
summer, then snowfall in winter would "compensate" summer rainfall. Herder community found out and
proved this logic many years ago. They believe that area had drought in summer would face dzud in
coming winter for sure- this is one of ways how the precipitation to be fallen into certain area is being
"compensated". Better natural water movement and proper pasture use can play important role on
mitigating natural risks: drought, dzud etc.
B. Factors of soil erosion, over-heating? Why
When pasture is overgrazed and its plant became scarcer, the soil structure changes first of all.
Grazing too many animals at one place is one of main factors of soil erosion/compactness, nutrition
loss of soil, loose of soil cover layer. Soil compactness lessens its pores- pores ease the water
movement in soil. With larger and continous pore distribution, the water movement in soil improves
affecting in better plant recovery and overal water/moisture circulation.
Table 2. Rainfall water absorbance level by pasture soil condition
Pasture soil condition
Water absorbance level,
%
Dry., overgrazed soil
5-25%
Soil with 35% of plant coverage
85%
Soil 60-75 % of plant coverage
98%
Water runoff, %
75-95%
15%
2%
Plant community coverage becomes scarce with depletion of forage plants with higher
preferences and growth of some new plants. This thin plant coverage results in weaker protection of
soil and plants from direct sunlight; plant coverage protects the soil from overheating by its shadow.
Overheated soil easily erodes and its cover soil layer gets loose and looses its nutrition with any
strong wind. Cover layer of soil or nutritive layer of soil important for plant growth is very thin (fragile)
for Gobi, desert soils. That’s why it is easier for these types of soils to loose its nutrition in wind.
C. Why desertification and dryness take place?
Pasture plants protect soil from over-heating, reduces water evaporation besides of protecting soil from
wind effects, desertification and sand movements. For instance, sand from wind, storm can easily
accumulated at the overgrazed pasture and leads to desertification.
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