6. Fact-sheet
Topic: 6 degrees
Introduction
What is the scientific theory “6 degrees” related to climate change that scientists are talking
about?
This fact sheet will give a brief overview on the changes in temperature throughout history,
examine the theory of “6 degrees”, and what the earth will look like if this happens.
“Six Degrees” refers to a theory that scientists are using to describe the conditions on earth
if it heats up six degrees from the current average temperature. This report will also discuss
the type of environmental changes that we can expect from a rise in one degree to six.
Body
Evidence of the changes in temperature throughout history
We know that earth has always gone through major changes on it’s own without the help
of humans. Earth started as a very hot place and organisms developed under these
conditions 4 billion years ago. Since then, it has cooled itself by covering itself totally with
ice. Because of the changes that earth has undergone throughout history we know a bit
about weather patterns. For example, we know that the more plants and trees that exist on
earth also means that there is less co2 in the air which means that the earth experiences
colder weather. We know that the more farms (monoculture) means that there are less
trees, which leads to more co2 in the air, which creates warmer conditions on earth.
This can be viewed easily as a simple math equation:
More Trees = less Co2 = colder temperatures
More Farms = less trees/ more land cleared = more Co2 = warmer temperatures
Every time nature has reclaimed the land from humans throughout history, the earth
experiences cooler temperatures.
In the last fifty years the burning of fossil fuels and massive deforestation due to agriculture
has increased the Co2 levels on earth . In fact, these levels are one third higher than they
were before the Industrial Revolution and now the earth is warmer by .7 degrees celsius.
Think of all the changes we are now seeing with global warming and this is only .7 degrees.
We have seen:
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13 of the hottest years since 1990
a rise in sea level by .82 meters
hurricanes are 50% more intense than ever recorded before
Lakes are drying up
Animals natural rhythms and cycles have changed
Billions of $ in damage from natural disasters
With the rate of global warming now, there is much concern that earth’s temperature will
rise anywhere from one to six degrees if greenhouse gases are not cut by 60% in the next
century. Scientists around the world have come up with a theory called “6 degrees” which
explains what we can expect life on earth to be like if it heats up 1- 6 degrees celsius.
What can we expect:
The following will explain the changes in conditions by each degree.
1-2 degrees - With a rise in temperature of just one degree we can expect changes. Massive
heatwaves will sweep the land. These heat waves will have an intensity level equivalent to
the Saharan desert. Many elderly will not be able to withstand such temperatures. Much of
the crops will begin to cook and forest fires will be quite normal. There will be an extreme
shortage of water especially in terms of agriculture and hydroelectricity. Plants will begin to
emit even more Co2 in the atmosphere creating an effect that could cause global warming
to become uncontrollable. People will no longer take vacations to the Mediterranean
because it will be much too warm. Many cities will disappear such as Miami and Manhattan.
More than half of the human population will need to migrate to higher ground in order to
survive. As the glaciers begin to melt, their water flow will eventually cease. This means that
a lot of fresh water rivers which are vital resources will stop flowing as well. Water scarcity
and famine are issues that we will be faced with as well. More than one third of the
ecosystem will face extinction.
In order to avoid these changes, we have 10 years to reduce greenhouse gases by 60%.
2-3 degrees - Starvation will be a key concern at this point for places like Africa. It is a
possibility that trees will begin to grow in the Arctic because all of the glaciers will have
melted. The sea levels will at least be 25 meters higher and the amazon will be facing
extinction.
3-4 degrees - In this scenario, plants and soils will start to emit Co2 rather than absorb it.
The Amazon will not exist and this will create a huge decrease in oxygen on the planet.
“Super Hurricanes” will continue to hit the coasts. Food production will decline on a
massive scale and people will now face starvation on many parts of the planet. A rise in salt
water will contaminate much of the reserved fresh drinking water. People will now migrate
to find the resources they need and there certainly won’t be enough for everyone. Much of
the land will now burn and the sea levels will continue to rise. China’s food production will
crumble. Cities will be uninhabitable. Both of the poles will melt completely. many
renewable energy resources such as hydroelectricity will not be an option at this point. The
social economy is on the brink of failure.
4-5 degrees - The planet will look completely different. Mangrove and other tropical trees will
grow as far north as England. Subtropical species such as alligators will live in the Arctic
region. Heatwaves will kill all vegetation in the summer in places like Spain and in the
winter heavy rainfalls will create landslides and cause the land to erode on a major scale.
International aid will not exist and there will be nothing left to buy. Perhaps these
conditions could lead to civil wars or other such conflicts in order to survive. Humans
would have to hunt in order to feed themselves and the majority of species would
eventually become extinct.
5-6 degrees - 251 million years ago the planet was in fact 6 degrees warmer. To understand
what life may be like under these temperatures we need to look at what life was like then.
95% of species were extinct. Only fungi now exists on land. Almost all ocean animals
have now suffocated and cannot exist in the stagnant and anoxic ocean. Super storms,
floods, and landslides now make it impossible for any other life forms to survive on land.
Methane air clouds will be a result of oceanic eruptions and these will shoot fire into the
skies. The planet will be uninhabitable.
Conclusion
In conclusion, humans will be faced with a rise in temperatures that will bring along many
scenarios of unfavorable and even uninhabitable conditions. If we do not want these dark
and life threatening conditions we must act now. We must start living in harmony with the
earth, finding sustainable ways to produce energy and use water. Most importantly we
must cut back greenhouse gas emissions by 60% in the next 10 years. How do we cut back
greenhouse gases? First, we cut the burning of fossil fuels and rely on sustainable energy
sources such as hydroelectricity, solar energy, and wind energy. Secondly, we quit
consuming so much and cut down drastically the disposal of trash. We cannot continue to
produce and discard plastic and other items that stress the earth in order to break it down.
Thirdly, we need to adopt sustainable ways to feed ourselves. It is time to rely on ourselves
to feed ourselves. We can’t continue to rely on factory farming and we cannot rely on
monocrops anymore. It is time to work with the earth rather than against her.
Sources:
Global Warming, Our Future
http://globalwarming.berrens.nl/globalwarming.htm
Questions:
1). What is one means of sustainable energy that we can adopt in homes to cut back on the
use of fossil fuels to provide us with energy?
Answer: Solar Panels= energy from the sun
2). By what percent must greenhouse gas emissions be cut in the next 10 years to prevent
the unfavourable and ultimately uninhabitable conditions on earth?
Answer: 60%