Fox News and Political Knowledge
Elizabeth Schroeder
Oregon State University
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Daniel F. Stone
Bowdoin College
October 2014
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
1 / 19
Motivation
Media bias exists (ideological horizontal di¤erentiation)
(Groseclose and Milyo, QJE, 2005; Gentzkow and Shapiro, Ecta, 2010)
But is bias bad? Not necessarily
(Gentzkow, Shapiro and Stone, Handbook of Media Economics chapter
in preparation)
Empirically: Does bias decrease/increase knowledge?
Not much literature here (beyond correlations)
We contribute by studying Fox News.
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
2 / 19
E¤ects on voting
DellaVigna and Kaplan (QJE 2007)
Fox News led to 0.4-0.7% increase in voting Republican
Identi…ed by gradual, quasi-random rollout.
Hopkins and Ladd (forthcoming), Martin and Yurukoglu (2014)
Why? One potential channel - knowledge e¤ects.
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
3 / 19
Does bias decrease/increase knowledge?
Theory is ambiguous.
Table 2: Mechanisms identi…ed by theory literature by which partisan news outlets can a¤ect voter knowledge
Mechanism
E¤ect Representative Paper
1. Cross-checking:
+
Mullainathan and Shleifer (2005)
biased outlet reports novel information that complements other news
2. Rational delegation:
+
Chan and Suen (2008)
biased outlet acts as an optimal advisor for partisan consumers,
who (rationally) would be unpersuaded to change action by neutral outlet
3. Market expansion:
+
Burke (2008)
biased outlet reaches consumers who otherwise would get no news
4. Entertainment and belief-con…rmation utility:
Bernhardt, Krasa, Polborn (2008)
consumers enjoy biased news despite knowing it is uninformative
5. Irrational delegation:
Stone (2011)
biased consumers falsely think biased outlet gives better advice than neutral outlet
6. Supply-side, monopoly market:
Anderson and McLaren (2012)
outlet uses bias to attempt to manipulate audience
7. Supply-side, competitive market w/obfuscation:
DellaVigna and Kaplan (2007)
consumers unwittingly obtain biased news due to naivete/ignorance
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
4 / 19
Stylized Model
Voters: Preferences for information (belief-changing) and political
preference a¢ rmation.
News Outlet: Objective function includes voting in‡uence and direct
pro…ts
Can report factual news or cheap talk report on valence of candidates
Predictions:
Increase knowledge for policy issues that are favorable to Republicans
more so when beliefs would otherwise be inaccurate.
Decrease knowledge on issues favorable to Democrats.
All e¤ects greatest for non-Democrats (most likely to watch)
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
5 / 19
Data
Knowledge data: The National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES)
Conducted each presidential election year, starting 2000
In 2000, 58,373 interviews; in 2004, 81,422; in 2008, 57,967.
Hopkins and Ladd (2012) use to study 2000 voting e¤ects (HL)
Demographic, political/ideological/attitude, media consumption (no
Fox in 2000)
Merge with: Census ZCTA (zip) level demographic data for 2000,
2010, linear interpolation for 04 and 08 (population, race, education,
income, employment)
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
6 / 19
Each poll includes 20+ interesting questions on political
(mostly campaign) issues with factual answers
Who favors doubling the amount families can deduct from their income tax for each child
they have, George W. Bush or Al Gore? (Bush)
Who favors paying down the national debt the most, George W. Bush or Al Gore? (Gore)
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
7 / 19
Each poll includes 20+ interesting questions on political
(mostly campaign) issues with factual answers
Who favors doubling the amount families can deduct from their income tax for each child
they have, George W. Bush or Al Gore? (Bush)
Who favors paying down the national debt the most, George W. Bush or Al Gore? (Gore)
John Kerry says that he would eliminate George W. Bush’s tax cuts on those making how
much money - over $50,000 a year; over $100,000 a year; over $200,000 a year; or over
$500,000 a year? ($200,000)
Who favors the Medicare prescription drug law that was recently enacted - George W.
Bush, John Kerry, both or neither? (Bush)
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
7 / 19
Each poll includes 20+ interesting questions on political
(mostly campaign) issues with factual answers
Who favors doubling the amount families can deduct from their income tax for each child
they have, George W. Bush or Al Gore? (Bush)
Who favors paying down the national debt the most, George W. Bush or Al Gore? (Gore)
John Kerry says that he would eliminate George W. Bush’s tax cuts on those making how
much money - over $50,000 a year; over $100,000 a year; over $200,000 a year; or over
$500,000 a year? ($200,000)
Who favors the Medicare prescription drug law that was recently enacted - George W.
Bush, John Kerry, both or neither? (Bush)
Which candidate(s) is proposing a health care reform plan that mandates that children
have health insurance: John McCain, Barack Obama, both, or neither? (Obama)
Which candidate(s) would provide individuals $2,500 or families $5,000 to help them buy
their own health insurance: John McCain, Barack Obama, both, or neither? (McCain)
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
7 / 19
Fox and cable data
Cable is local natural monopoly. Highly decentralized
Fox News began in October, 1996; main (stated) goal to grow
subscribers as quickly as possible (Collins, 2004)
DK data: Fox availability in 2000 and 2003 for around 20,000 towns,
33 states
Also: number channels in 2000; cable system in 2000, 2003
Collected from annual industry factbooks
We add FNC access data from factbooks and number of channels for
2004 and 2008
Updating issue
We look at 4 year intervals
Dynamic e¤ects
Voting e¤ects not too di¤erent
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
8 / 19
Summary stats
Fox
Knowledge Qs
% Correct
n
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
2000
0.238
13.44
0.461
31,717
2004
0.774
9.62
0.542
25,856
2008
0.957
9.15
0.533
27,720
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
9 / 19
Power, data integrity and exogeneity
Investigate power by checking treatment e¤ects we know should occur
1) Voting Repub (2000 especially);
2) Watching Fox (questions in 04 and 08 only)
Verify that we can detect e¤ects. (Voting 2% in 2000, 1% in pooled
data)
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
10 / 19
Power, data integrity and exogeneity
Investigate power by checking treatment e¤ects we know should occur
1) Voting Repub (2000 especially);
2) Watching Fox (questions in 04 and 08 only)
Verify that we can detect e¤ects. (Voting 2% in 2000, 1% in pooled
data)
Exogeneity of Fox access?
DK: yes (in 2000), with congressional district or county FEs (and other
controls)
HL: yes (in 2000), with state FEs (+ controls)
We verify holds in all years, and check relation to education
Foxi = δv Vi + δE Ei + βXi + ei
Some evidence of small e¤ect of education on FNC access in 2000 and
2004.
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
10 / 19
Knowledge analysis
Iij = δj Foxi + Xi βj + αj + eij .
Iij is dummy, equal to one if i answers question j correctly
Xi = respondent-speci…c controls; αj is question-speci…c constant, captures question’s di¢
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
culty
11 / 19
Knowledge analysis
Iij = δj Foxi + Xi βj + αj + eij .
Iij is dummy, equal to one if i answers question j correctly
Xi = respondent-speci…c controls; αj is question-speci…c constant, captures question’s di¢
We observe: yij = dij Iij ;
with dij a dummy equal to one if respondent i
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
asked question
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
culty
j; and ni = ∑j dij
October 2014
11 / 19
Knowledge analysis
Iij = δj Foxi + Xi βj + αj + eij .
Iij is dummy, equal to one if i answers question j correctly
Xi = respondent-speci…c controls; αj is question-speci…c constant, captures question’s di¢
We observe: yij = dij Iij ;
with dij a dummy equal to one if respondent i
So estimate:
yi =
1
ni
asked question
culty
j; and ni = ∑j dij
1
∑ dij Iij = eδFoxi + Xi eβ + ni ∑ dij αj + eei .
j
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
j
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
11 / 19
Speci…c knowledge
Model prediction: Positive/larger e¤ects on issues more favorable to Rs.
Exploit survey questions on respondents’own policy preferences.
Ex: "Do you personally favor or oppose requiring a license for a person
to buy a handgun?"
Code as pro-R if over half of likely viewers (non-Democrats) with a
preference prefer R position or are opposed to D position.
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
12 / 19
Speci…c knowledge
Model prediction: Positive/larger e¤ects on issues more favorable to Rs.
Exploit survey questions on respondents’own policy preferences.
Ex: "Do you personally favor or oppose requiring a license for a person
to buy a handgun?"
Code as pro-R if over half of likely viewers (non-Democrats) with a
preference prefer R position or are opposed to D position.
E¤ect should be proportional to percentage of people who are
"persuadable" or "treatable".
\ = 1 y ij , the fraction of
For pro-R questions, treatable
non-Democrats with Fox=0 who got question j wrong.
\ = yi ,
For anti-R questions, treatable
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
j
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
12 / 19
Informativeness
Model prediction: Heterogeneous e¤ects due to choice of issues to cover.
Examine transcripts from FNC programs.
The O’Reilly Factor and Special Report with Brit Hume
Randomly chosen transcripts
Use keywords to identify potentially relevant content.
Use workers from Mechanical Turk and our own judgment to code
content: misleading, irrelevant, informative.
TInfo: mean 0.47, max 4, min -1.
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
13 / 19
Results: All knowledge questions
Dependent variable: % questions answered correctly
2000 only
Foxi
Adjusted R 2
N
Y-mean
2004 only
Foxi
Adjusted R 2
N
Y-mean
2000-04-08
Foxi
Adjusted R 2
N
Y-mean
State FE
County FE
Non-Democrat
Low Channels
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
-0.343
(0.383)
0.253
29912
47.297
-0.096
(0.549)
0.261
29912
47.297
-0.256
(0.450)
0.248
20659
46.420
-0.449
(0.741)
0.258
20659
46.420
-2.293**
(1.153)
0.245
14759
46.570
0.957
(2.121)
0.259
14759
46.570
1.050**
(0.480)
0.354
22929
53.099
0.893
(0.759)
0.363
22929
53.099
1.241**
(0.566)
0.354
15656
52.473
1.149
(0.888)
0.367
15656
52.473
1.487***
(0.563)
0.353
11584
51.997
1.803*
(0.979)
0.365
11584
51.997
0.068
(0.273)
0.301
79285
50.742
X
-0.166
(0.310)
0.305
79285
50.742
0.123
(0.313)
0.299
53512
50.127
X
0.113
(0.363)
0.303
53512
50.127
0.373
(0.370)
0.297
38318
49.936
X
0.446
(0.508)
0.305
38318
49.936
X
X
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
X
X
X
X
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
X
October 2014
14 / 19
Results: "persuasion rates"
2000 only
\ i
Foxi treatable
Adjusted R 2
N
Y-mean
2004 only
\ i
Foxi treatable
Adjusted R 2
N
Y-mean
2000-04-08
\ i
Foxi treatable
Adjusted R 2
N
Y-mean
Non-Democrat
Low Channels
Follow News
\ i = (1 ȳji ))
Pro-Repub Questions (treatable
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
\ i = ȳji )
Anti-Repub Questions (treatable
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
4.880
(3.059)
0.188
23880
64.758
1.018
(3.924)
0.197
16580
66.664
-8.870
(9.892)
0.190
11670
63.942
4.237
(3.628) )
0.173
16627
72.258
-0.466
(1.383)
0.220
25236
46.107
-0.373
(1.876)
0.210
17474
44.749
2.227
(5.240)
0.220
12308
45.323
1.010
(1.735)
0.205
17674
50.476
7.208**
(3.377)
0.211
14141
55.362
7.320*
(3.931)
0.215
9597
56.028
11.818***
(4.297)
0.206
7081
54.270
8.555**
(4.067)
0.185
10509
61.285
3.212
(2.600)
0.216
14141
54.491
3.889
(3.190)
0.199
9597
51.537
6.623**
(3.272)
0.217
7081
52.952
-0.688
(2.946)
0.207
10509
58.718
2.175
(1.456)
0.213
52667
56.145
3.166*
(1.669)
0.217
35682
57.205
X
3.169*
(1.895)
0.209
25376
55.543
3.199*
(1.708)
0.213
39830
60.831
-0.719
(0.862)
0.255
52346
48.894
0.026
(1.119)
0.244
35485
47.180
X
0.854
(1.546)
0.257
25236
47.920
-0.583
(0.948)
0.247
39407
53.495
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
X
X
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
X
X
October 2014
15 / 19
Results: Transcript informativeness
2000 only
Foxi
Foxi
TInfoi
Adjusted R 2
N
2004 only
Foxi
Foxi
TInfoi
Adjusted R 2
N
2000-04-08
Foxi
Foxi
TInfoi
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
-1.475**
(0.698)
2.518*
(1.406)
0.253
29912
-1.207
(0.827)
2.441*
(1.440)
0.261
29912
-2.347***
(0.869)
4.667***
(1.723)
0.248
20659
-2.637**
(1.090)
4.853***
(1.794)
0.258
20659
1.004
(3.640)
-7.505
(8.195)
0.245
14759
7.097
(4.880)
-13.774
(9.565)
0.259
14759
-1.553*
(0.803)
3.137**
(1.541)
0.235
20831
-1.298
(0.991)
3.614**
(1.602)
0.248
20831
0.828
(0.772)
0.249
(0.671)
0.354
22929
0.504
(1.035)
0.404
(0.735)
0.363
22929
0.916
(0.874)
0.363
(0.769)
0.354
15656
0.711
(1.222)
0.454
(0.878)
0.367
15656
1.324
(0.914)
0.190
(0.815)
0.353
11584
1.454
(1.277)
0.389
(0.917)
0.365
11584
1.023
(0.878)
-0.365
(0.762)
0.345
15506
0.526
(1.210)
-0.166
(0.857)
0.354
15506
-0.910**
(0.418)
1.649***
(0.569)
0.301
79285
X
-1.155***
(0.437)
1.624***
(0.575)
0.305
79285
-1.308**
(0.511)
2.409***
(0.697)
0.299
53512
X
-1.254**
(0.566)
2.247***
(0.708)
0.304
53512
-0.895
(0.739)
1.720*
(0.880)
0.297
38318
X
-0.533
(0.884)
1.284
(0.945)
0.305
38318
-0.528
(0.449)
1.098*
(0.602)
0.280
58847
X
-0.781
(0.485)
1.019*
(0.599)
0.285
58847
X
X
Adjusted R 2
N
State FE
County FE
Non-Democrat
Low Channels
News State University
Schroeder and Follow
Stone (Oregon
X
X
X
X
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
X
X 2014
October
X
X16 / 19
Discussion
Individual e¤ects
95% con…dence intervals for full sample both fall within [-0.77, 0.60]
DK: Foxi causes 3% increase in watching Fox ‘a lot’; 9% in watching
Fox ‘a little’
Roughly, implies 95% interval of knowledge e¤ects of [-31%,23%] for
those who watch a lot
And [-9.0%,7.0%] for those who watch a little
Both are arguably small
We are interested in aggregate e¤ects anyway (incorporating
spill-overs) - which are obviously even smaller
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
17 / 19
Results: Other outcomes
2000 only
Foxi
Adjusted R 2
N
Y-mean
2004 only
Foxi
R2
Adjusted
N
Y-mean
2000, 2004, 2008
Foxi
Adjusted R 2
N
Y-mean
County FE
Newspaper
Def. 1
Def. 2
(1)
(2)
Online News
Def. 1
Def. 2
(3)
(4)
-0.132*
(0.070)
0.185
29,874
3.879
-0.024**
(0.011)
0.08
29,912
0.793
0.014
(0.047)
0.100
29,816
1.048
0.004
(0.010)
0.116
29,912
0.249
-0.024**
(0.011)
0.169
29,744
0.700
-0.012
(0.011)
0.172
29,744
0.352
0.005
(0.086)
0.184
22,900
3.917
-0.005
(0.014)
0.085
22,929
0.784
0.109**
(0.052)
0.093
22,883
0.827
0.020*
(0.012)
0.111
22,929
0.226
-0.009
(0.014)
0.150
20,266
0.765
0.021
(0.015)
0.150
20,266
0.399
-0.027
(0.042)
0.191
79,081
3.620
-0.011*
(0.006)
0.118
79,285
0.732
0.016
(0.026)
0.192
78,961
1.402
0.002
(0.005)
0.188
79,285
0.310
-0.008
(0.006)
0.159
76,322
0.771
0.004
(0.006)
0.153
76,322
0.391
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Follow News
Def. 1
Def. 2
(5)
(6)
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
18 / 19
Conclusion
FNC access did not have large e¤ects on political knowledge from
2000 to 2008
May have increased knowledge in 2004
Especially on topics favorable to Republicans (some evidence of this in
other years as well).
FNC access increased knowledge about topics on which it focused
attention, and decreased knowledge on other issues.
Variation across years
E.g., FNC may have sparked more consumption of online news in 2004
Reasons our analysis could understate impact of Fox
non-local spillovers
in‡uence content of other news
non-informative content that still a¤ects voting
Schroeder and Stone (Oregon State University
Fox
Bowdoin
News and
College)
Political Knowledge
October 2014
19 / 19