THE ORIGIN AND SIGNIFICANCE OF SINUOSITY ALONG INCISING BEDROCK RIVERS Jonathan Ross Barbour Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY 2008 © 2008 Jonathan Ross Barbour All Rights Reserved ABSTRACT Landscapes evolve through processes acting at the earth’s surface in response to tectonics and climate. Rivers that cut into bedrock are particularly important since they set the local baselevel and communicate changes in boundary conditions across the landscape through erosion and deposition; the pace of topographic evolution depends on both the rate of change of the boundary conditions and the speed of the bedrock channel network response. Much of the work so far has considered the effects of tectonically-controlled changes in slope and climatically-controlled changes in discharges to the rate of channel bed erosion while considering bank erosion, if active at all, to be of at best secondary importance to landscape evolution. Sprinkled throughout the literature of the past century are studies that have recognized lateral activity along incising rivers, but conflicting interpretations have left many unanswered questions about how to identify and measure horizontal erosion, what drives it, what effect it has on the landscape, and how it responds to climate and tectonics. In this thesis, I begin to answer some of these questions by focusing on bedrock river sinuosity and its evolution through horizontal erosion of the channel banks. An analysis of synoptic scale topography and climatology of the islands of eastern Asia reveals a quantitative signature of storm frequency in a regional measure of mountain river sinuosity. This is partly explained through a study of the hydro- and morphodynamics of a rapidly evolving bedrock river in Taiwan which shows how the erosive forces vary along a river to influence the spatiotemporal distribution of downcutting, sidecutting, and sediment transport. Through these analyses, I also present evidence that suggests that the relative frequency of erosive events is far more important than the absolute magnitude of extreme events in setting the erosion rate, and I show that the horizontal erosion of bedrock rivers is an important contributor to landscape evolution. This thesis comprises a new look at the processes at work in bedrock rivers which suggests new ideas about the ways that landscape and climate interact, new tools for interpreting landscape morphology, and new insights into the processes that contribute to the evolution of active orogens. TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents…………………………………………………... i Acknowledgments…………………………………………………..ii Dedication…...............................................................……………... v Preface................................................................................................vi Chapter 1: Migration and meandering of bedrock rivers…….....1 Chapter 2: Typhoon-driven discharge variability and bedrock river meandering…………………………………… 48 Chapter 3a: Magnitude-frequency distributions of boundary shear stress along a rapidly eroding bedrock mountain river……………………………………… 92 Chapter 3b: Monitoring the flow conditions and morphological changes of a typhoon flood-prone bedrock river……111 Conclusions………………………………………………………… 164 i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Thanks first of all to the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University, NASA, the National Science Foundation, and the taxpayers of the United States of America for funding the research summarized in this dissertation. Thanks to my advisory committee, Chris Scholz, Jeff Weissel, and especially my primary research advisor Colin Stark, who guided me through each project. Thanks to Art Lerner-Lam, Upmanu Lall, and Roger Buck for serving on my examination committees, and thanks to everyone else at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, in particular: Mia Leo, Sally Odland, Regina Giacinto, Felicia Taylor, Carol Mountain, Missy Pinkert, Bree Burns, Greg Yetman, Rob Kakascik, Bob Arko, Doug Shearer, Art Lerner-Lam, Mark Cane, Nick Christie-Blick, Steven Chillrud, Chris Small, Roger Anderson, Andrea Taramelli, Thorsten Nagel, Joe Galewsky, Vicki Ferrini, Mladen Nedimovic, Kristina Czuchlewski, Dalia Bach, Kori Newman, Janet Baran, Rob Bialas, Angela Slagle, David Grass, Mike Tischer, Irina Gorodetskaya, Byrdie Renik, Tim Crone, Abby Spieler, Kevin Jones, Louisa Bradtmiller, Katie Leonard, Julie Bonczkowski, Rose Anne Weissel, and especially to Chadwick Holmes for saving me from countless Matlab pitfalls. Thanks to my undergraduate advisor at Yale University, Mark Brandon, and to Frank Pazzaglia at Lehigh University for encouraging me to pursue this degree. ii Thanks to Simon Dadson and Jens Turowski, and to their advisor at Cambridge University, Niels Hovius, for patiently answering my questions and arguing with me over interpretations of landforms and surface processes in the field and at meetings. Jens graciously brought me along for some of his PhD fieldwork in Taiwan and accompanied me for some of mine; his curiosity, enthusiasm, and positive outlook were always contagious. This dissertation has greatly benefited from his suggestions, criticisms, and guidance. Fieldwork in Taiwan was only possible through the support of Hongey Chen in the Department of Geosciences at the National Taiwan University (NTU) in Taipei, and of Ching-Weei Lin at the Disaster Prevention Research Center (DPRC) of the National Cheng Kung University (NCKU) in Tainan. Chia-Hong Jen and Meng-Long Hsieh, Chung (Yellow Clock) Huang, and others at NTU, and Chin-Pin Ko, Te-Cheng (Xiao) Yi, Tsai-Tsung (Victor/Xiao Pang) Tsai, Wei-Shu (Xiao Shu) Chang, Shin- Ping (Morris) Lee, Wei-Lin (William) Lee, Gong-Rey He, Yun-Chung (Take-san) Tsang, Wen-Yi (Xiao) Lai, Wen-Chi (Da) Lai, and others at DPRC/NCKU were also instrumental in providing logistical and technical support, field assistance, data, insight, and…some very interesting meals. I also owe a large debt of gratitude to the Maolin firefighters who risked their own safety to help me cross a raging river to recover a notebook that was accidentally left behind, just before a heavy downpour, on the wrong side of a river. I am especially grateful for the collaborative efforts of Chung (Yellow Clock) Huang at NTU, and Te-Cheng (Xiao) Yi at DPRC. Their resourcefulness, iii insightful suggestions, and technical expertise helped to shape much of the field methodology in this thesis over several seasons in Taiwan. Fieldwork in Japan benefited from the logistical support of Yasutaka Ikeda at Tokyo University and the local knowledge and insights of Yukitoshi Fukahata, also at Tokyo University, Masayoshi Tajikara at the Japan Atomic Energy Agency, and Tsuyoshi Hattanji and Yuichi Hayakawa at Tsukuba University. Ming-Jame Horng at the Water Resources Agency of Taiwan, Joe Xu at Tsukuba University in Japan, and the Thomas Luellwitz at the Global Runoff Data Centre generously provided discharge data. And finally, thanks to my friends, and most of all, to my family for supporting me and for putting up with my stress while I struggled to complete this dissertation. As I am getting older, my memory has increasingly betrayed me, so thanks also to everyone I have forgotten. If you are my age, you probably understand. If you’re younger, just wait. iv To Oscar. v PREFACE William Morris Davis sparked a debate in 1893 when he wrote a letter to Science in which he described incised meanders along the Osage River of Missouri (Davis 1893). He argued that because meandering is a state of alluvial rivers, the incised meanders of the Osage indicate a series of erosion cycles in which the river once meandered across a flat plain until regional uplift of the Ozark Mountains rejuvenated incision along the stream, locking in the existing planform. This interpretation that incised meanders are inherited from a past alluvial phase continues to re-appear as a relatively common explanation for meanders in bedrock. However, even Davis’s contemporaries recognized that not only is there rarely evidence for planform inheritance, but there is also no need to assume an alluvial origin for meanders (e.g. Winslow 1893). Indeed, active meandering is ubiquitous along incising rivers (e.g. Mahard 1942, Tinkler 1970, Ikeda et al. 1981, Seminara 2006, Shyu et al. 2006), and it can have a strong influence on the morphology of mountain landscapes. The processes of bedrock river incision have long been a focus of attention among those who study landscape evolution, in part because the slopes of incising channels and their variations downstream are thought to result primarily from a competition between bed erosion and rock uplift (e.g. Mackin 1948, Whipple 2004) which results in longitudinal profiles that encode information about tectonics and climate (e.g. Roe et al. 2002, Whipple 2006). However, if meanders grow along vi these rivers, channel slopes will change, complicating the relationships between climate, tectonics, erosion, and bedrock channel longitudinal profiles. Theories of bedrock incision tend to treat bed erosion as an increasing function of boundary shear stress (e.g. Howard and Kerby 1983, Whipple 2004), which depends on channel slope and hydraulic geometry, while theories of meandering tend to treat bank erosion as an increasing function of cross-channel asymmetry in the flow speed around meander bends (e.g. Thomson 1876, Einstein 1926, Rhoads and Welford 1991, Seminara 2006). Since hydraulic geometry and flow speed vary with discharge, erosion of the walls and bed of bedrock channels should both increase as functions of some characteristic(s) of the discharge distribution, slope, and erodibility. It is likely that the functional dependencies are different for vertical bed and horizontal wall erosion, particularly because only a portion of the flows through the channel inundate the walls and because bed sediment cover (which may vary in thickness, extent, caliber, and persistence with discharge and/or erodibility) tends to armor the channel bed while leaving the banks exposed (Moore 1926, Turowski, 2008). However, data on how discharge, channel geometry, shear stress, erodibility, and sediment supply affect horizontal cutting rates and relative rates of horizontal and vertical erosion are sparse, limiting our ability to understand how bedrock channels and their valleys evolve. This thesis presents such empirical data on discharge, channel and hydraulic geometry, shear stress, and sediment supply, and it assesses the role of these parameters in the development of sinuosity along mountain rivers. It vii approaches the problem from a historical perspective, at the scale of a continent, and at the scale of a relatively small mountain catchment. It has three chapters: Chapter 1, “Migration and meandering of bedrock rivers,” introduces the concepts addressed in this thesis through a survey of bedrock river meandering that brings together classic literature on incised meanders, theories of river meandering and bedrock river erosion, and original field observations from bedrock rivers. This chapter makes a case for more attention to horizontal erosion in studies of mountain landscapes based on observations that (1) despite widespread misconceptions, actively growing incised meanders are common in nature and have been recognized as such for more than a century, (2) meander theories apply to and account for meandering through bedrock regardless of whether or not the river is incising (3) meandering affects channel slope, which is a key parameter in all studies of bedrock river erosion and landscape evolution, (4) the relative rate of lateral erosion with respect to incision has a first-order effect on valley and ridge morphologies, and (5) neglecting horizontal erosion can lead to misinterpretations of the landscape and its boundary conditions. Chapter 2, “Typhoon-driven discharge variability and bedrock river meandering,” presents a mapping study that reveals a correlation between explicit measurements of channel network morphology extracted quantitatively from topographic data and measures of climate variability such as storm frequency and statistics of rainfall and discharge. The analysis is restricted to areas of high relief and to broadly similar lithologies across the islands of the western North Pacific Ocean, where the tropical cyclones dominate regional trends in climate. The viii correlation suggests that the sinuosity of an ensemble of mountain river network segments is an unambiguous quantitative signature of climate in the landscape. Chapter 3 is an analysis of field observations and empirical data on discharge, hydraulic geometry, shear stress, and friction along a meandering bedrock river in the Central Mountains of Taiwan to account for semi-annual to decadal changes along this channel and to provide some explanation for how the channel has evolved to its present form over longer time scales. It is presented in two manuscripts. The first, “Magnitude-frequency distributions of boundary shear stress along a rapidly eroding bedrock mountain river,” is a study of discharge records, high-resolution satellite imagery, and topographic surveys of the channel to find the rating relationship of discharge and boundary shear stress at a transect. This rating function is used to convert a long time-series of discharge to a magnitude-frequency distribution of shear stress. The second manuscript, “Monitoring the flow conditions and morphological changes of a typhoon floodprone bedrock river,” follows with similar empirical data from additional transects, and also includes data on flow speeds, flow depths, friction, and incipient sediment particle motion. These data indicate that although rare extreme floods have significantly greater discharges than semi-annual floods, they produce shear stresses that are only moderately more erosive and able to transport only moderately larger sediment grain sizes. Comparison to a similarly-sized but much more-slowly eroding catchment in the eastern United States indicates that erosion rates of these channels is a stronger function of the frequency of erosive discharges than it is of the absolute magnitude of the most extreme floods. Observations of ix changes in shear stress and hydraulic geometry for given flows through a series of meander loops further indicate that changes channel geometry control the downstream variation of wall inundation frequency which, if correlated to planform curvature over the long term, could contribute to meandering. The final section of the thesis shows how the results from each chapter combine to reveal important ways that discharge magnitude-frequency distributions contribute to bedrock river erosion processes and landscape evolution, and identifies several outstanding questions that suggest directions for future study. REFERENCES W. M. Davis. The topographic maps of the United States Geological Survey, Science, 21 (534), 225–227, 1893. A. Einstein. The cause of the formation of meanders in the courses of rivers and of the so-called Baer’s law. In Ideas and Opinions, pages 249–253. Crown Publishers, Inc., New York, 1926. A. Howard, and G. Kerby. Channel changes in badlands, Geological Society of America Bulletin, 94, 739-752, 1983. S. Ikeda, G. Parker, and K. Sawai. Bend theory of river meanders. Part 1. Linear development. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 112, 363–377, 1981. J. H. Mackin. Concept of the graded river: Geological Society of America Bulletin, 59, 463–512, 1948. R. H. Mahard. The origin and significance of intrenched meanders. Journal of Geomorphology, 5, 32–44, 1942. R. C. Moore. Origin of inclosed meanders in the physiographic history of the Colorado Plateau country. Journal of Geology, 34, 29–57, 1926a. G. H. Roe, Montgomery D.H., and Hallet B. Effects of orographic precipitation variations on the concavity of steady-state river profiles, Geology, 30 (2), 143-146, 2002. x B. L. Rhoads and M. R. Welford. Initiation of river meandering. Progress in Physical Geography, 15, 127–156, 1991. G. Seminara. Meanders. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 554, 271–297, 2006. J. B. Shyu, K. Sieh, J.-P. Avuoac, W.-S. Chen, and Y.-G. Chen. Millennial slip rate of the Longitudinal Valley Fault from river terraces: Implications for convergence across the active suture of eastern Taiwan. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111(B08403):doi:10.1029/2005JB003971, 2006. J. Thomson. On the origin of windings of rivers in alluvial plains, with remarks on the flow of water round bends in pipes. Proceedings of the Royal Society, 16, 1876. Republished in Nature v.14 p.122, June 1976. Also in ”Collected papers in physics and engineering”, ch.16, p. 96-100, CUP, 1912. K. J. Tinkler. Active valley meanders in South-Central Texas and their wider significance. Geological Society of America Bulletin, 82, 1783–1800, 1971. J. M. Turowski, N. Hovius, M.-L. Hsieh, D. Lague, and M.-C. Chen, Distribution of erosion across bedrock channels, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 33 (3), 353–363, 2008. K. X. Whipple, Bedrock rivers and the geomorphology of active orogens, Annual Review 625 of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 32, 151–185, 2004. A. Winslow, The Osage river and its meanders. Science, 22 (546), 32–32, 1893. xi CHAPTER 1 1 CHAPTER Migration and meandering of bedrock rivers * Migration and meandering of bedrock rivers* * This manuscript is in preparation for submission to Earth Surface Processes and Landforms with co-authors Colin P. Stark, Chingweei Lin, and Hongey Chen. 1 Abstract Studies of bedrock rivers and their role in landscape evolution tend to focus on channel slope and its changes in response to a competition between climate-driven erosion and relative baselevel fall; a common simplifying assumption is that incising rivers do not shift laterally. However, theories of meandering that predict planform evolution along any channel with deformable boundaries are supported by abundant field evidence of active meandering along incising rivers, even ones in strong bedrock. Here we review a century of interpretations of incised meanders and discuss how meander theory, developed primarily to explain alluvial meanders, also applies to meanders in bedrock. However, we also present our own observations to show that incised meanders have several important differences from meanders in alluvium that are related to the channel geometry, the role of bed sediment, and the erodibility and heterogeneity of bank material, and we discuss how these differences may induce feedback mechanisms that are unique to incising meanders. If neglected, the effect of sinuosity growth on channel slope at constant drainage area and in the absence of tectonic influence may lead to misinterpretations of tectonics from morphology. 1 Introduction River meanders have sparked curiosity for centuries (e.g. Thomson 1876; Einstein 1926; Alexander 1982), and continue to inspire a great deal of scientific research (e.g. Rhoads and Welford 1991; Seminara 2006); the literature is replete with theories to account for their origin and evolution, descriptions of their regular planforms, and empirical measurements that reveal consistent relationships among aspects of their geometry and hydrology. Much of the attention has focused on meanders through cohesive sediment of flat alluvial landscapes. However, some have examined how and why meanders 2 2 also exist incised into the bedrock of plateaus, uplifting mountains, offshore canyons, and Martian highlands. Meanders are actually quite common along the incising bedrock rivers of some areas of high relief, and the processes of active meandering, which is the result of horizontal bank erosion, must be important to the evolution of these landscapes. However, these processes tend to be neglected in models of landscape evolution which consider bedrock erosion to be a key parameter while fixing the river network planform. A long overdue review of meander theory and its application to bedrock rivers will inform interpretations and models of landscape evolution. 2 The Osage River debate William Morris Davis sparked a debate in 1893 with letter to Science in which he presented a theory of the origin of incised meanders along the Osage River of Missouri (Davis 1893a,b; Winslow 1893, 1894)1 . He believed in cycles of landscape evolution, in which young topography has high relief with incising rivers while old landscapes are flat and mantled with fine grained 1 The terminology in the incised meander literature cited in this review has been inconsistent; words like intrenched (Mahard 1942), entrenched (Rich 1914), incised (Tarr 1924), inclosed (Moore 1926a), and in-grown (Rich 1914), have taken turns as labels for all incised meanders and for each type. We prefer to use the unambiguous words active and passive meandering, which refer specifically the state of bank erosion processes in the channel. Passive meandering may occur through planforms that were inherited from an alluvial phase, or through channels that were shaped by active meandering in higher stratigraphy. We further distinguish between the inheritance of channel planform and the antecedence of valley position (e.g. Powell 1875; Davis 1897; Emmons 1897; Jefferson 1897; Sears 1924), since, for example, an actively meandering river may traverse and incise into an anticline along a valley axis that is antecedent to the uplift. 3 3 sediment through which rivers meander. The Osage seemed to defy this paradigm, since it is “extremely tortuous in a steep-sided valley, trenched two or three hundred feet below the level of the surrounding upland” (Davis 1893a). Davis deduced that the curious morphology of the Osage must indicate a series of landscape evolution cycles; some time in the past the Osage had “worn down its basin to a surface of faint relief,” such that “its slope became gentle and its current had taken to a deviating path, peculiar to old streams, which so generally meander on their flat flood plains.” As the plateau began to rise, “the faithful stream once more turned the task of cutting down its channel...but in doing so, it retained in the new cycle of its life the meandering course that it had attained in its old age in the previous cycle.” That is, renewed uplift of old topography causes a switch from horizontal to vertical erosion; whatever planform happens to exist when this occurs is locked in place and is retained through the young stages of the next erosion cycle. This was not an entirely new idea; twenty years earlier, John Wesley Powell arrived at a similar sequence of events to explain the sinuous canyons he found in expeditions to Colorado Territory, arguing that along some reaches, “the drainage was established antecedent to the corrugation or displacement of the beds by folding and faulting” (Powell 1875). This is similar to Davis’s idea, but not quite the same, since the antecedence of valley position that Powell described does not require an inherited channel planform. If sinuosity, defined as the ratio of the curved along-channel length l 4 4 to the straight down-valley length L, does not change during incision, and if channel widths adjust quickly to changes in discharge, then empirical scaling relationships of alluvial channel width and wavelength imply that inherited meanders are windows into the past conditions under which the sinuosity formed (e.g. Dury 1953; Carlston 1964, 1965; Schumm 1967). That is, meander wavelengths correspond to particular channel widths, so incised meander wavelengths indicate the width of the channel when meandering was active. The variation of channel width with discharge further indicates that the past width inferred from an inherited meander wavelength corresponds to the past discharge conditions, which, if different from the current conditions, may reveal a change in climate or network structure (Davis 1913; Wright 1942; Dury 1954, 1955, 1964, 1970; Williams 1986). Since planform inheritance requires baselevel to fall, it also signifies a physiographic history that may include either eustatic change in mean sea level, isostatic or tectonic uplift, or the breach of an ice or landslide dam. Gardner (1975)’s experiments indicated that sinuosity inheritance occurs when baselevel drops without regional tilting, such that, for example, meanders incised in Honduran highlands could reveal a regional isostatic response to the detachment of a subducted slab (Rogers et al. 2002). Likewise, meanders incised into the Sierra Foothills may have resulted from the upstream propagation of a knickpoint into a lava plateau over which the rivers had meandered through alluvium (Huber 1981). Implicit in the concept of inheritance is an assumption that incising 5 5 rivers either do not cut their banks, or they do so symmetrically. Therefore inherited incised meanders also reveal properties of the flow and load that would support either zero or symmetric bank erosion and that must have persisted through the time of incision. However, these inferences are invalid if meandering occurs during incision. For example, Missouri geologist Arthur Winslow disagreed with Davis’s interpretation of the Osage since he knew of no field evidence for the peneplanation required by inheritance (Winslow 1893). Instead, Winslow said that vertical incision along the Osage was always accompanied by “lateral degradation and movement.” He explained that “where the current impinges, sapping will increase the convexity and the sinuosity will become more pronounced,” even as “the channel sinks vertically at the same time.” (Winslow 1893).2 Only a single cycle of erosion is necessary for the channel to shape itself this way. Although Davis continued to argue his case for the Osage, he soon allowed that active planform evolution can occur during incision, even with lateral migration rates that far outpace downcutting (Davis 1906, 1913). Winslow, meanwhile, maintained his argument for the Osage based mostly on his knowledge of the geological history of the Ozark region (Winslow 2 Unfortunately, we can no longer revisit Winslow’s field area to settle the DavisWinslow debate over the nature of the Osage planform; the meanders in question were submerged dozens of meters below the surface of the Lake of the Ozarks by the construction of Bagnell Dam, completed in 1931. Likewise, the rivers Powell described were flooded by the construction of Glen Canyon Dam, completed in 1966, which created the lake that takes his name. These reservoirs remain popular vacation destinations, and together their hydroelectric plants have the capacity to generate nearly 1500 megawatts of power (Lowry 2003; http://www.usbr.gov). 6 6 1894); however, he did not refute the possibility that inheritance can occur elsewhere. The question therefore became one of classification: what features on a sinuous incised channel are indicative of inherited sinuosity versus active meandering? Most subsequent studies focused on the crossvalley shape, since downcutting with no centerline migration should produce symmetric valleys while downcutting with simultaneous centerline migration should produce valley asymmetry that, along a sinuous river, will alternate polarity downstream (e.g. Davis 1906, 1913; Rich 1914; Tarr 1924; Moore 1926a,b; Hol 1938, 1939; Masuch 1935). A corollary set of features is associated with the topography of the inter-meander spurs: on an inherited train of meanders, the spurs have co-planar surfaces that overlap at high elevation and, in a plateau, are continuous with the surrounding peneplain (e.g. Tarr 1924); active meanders, however, have slip-off slope spurs that dip into each bend (Mahard 1942) (Figure 1). Valley shape alone could be misleading, since the channel curvature should always induce some lateral cutting, and may lead to asymmetry even along inherited meanders (Mahard 1942). Instead, the best discriminators are meander cutoffs, which occur when adjacent bends intersect and pinch off a section of the channel. In an alluvial system, the abandoned channel segment becomes an oxbow lake which eventually fills with fine-grain lacustrine sediment to form a plug within the alluvial plain. Erosional resistance of such plugs may promote the development of planform bend asymmetry and complex or multiple bends which exhibit reversals of curvature within 7 7 Figure 1: Left: Passive meandering on an incised channel. The steep and symmetric valley walls indicate that this river has not migrated much while it incises. The overlapping inter meander spurs are flat and coplanar with the surrounding plateau, on which there are alluvial indicators of an abandoned loop (gray dashed lines) Right: Active meandering on an incised channel. The asymmetric valley preserves slip-off slopes at each bend. Bend growth has been sufficient to cut off and abandon a meander loop. On both rivers, the dotted red line shows the minimum sinuosity required at the onset of incision (after Mahard 1942) 8 8 (a) T de s (b) 122°E 120°E 122°E 24°N 22°N 22°N 24°N la nd sli I 120°E (c) 100 m N 22°55'0"N N 120°41'0"E 120°42'0"E 22°55'0"N Shetoushan slip-off slope landslid 22°54'0"N 22°54'0"N cut bank es 0 500 1,000 m Figure 2: Low-level aerial photographs of the Jukuo River in southwestern Taiwan (a) and location maps (b and c). This reach exhibits the characteristic landforms of incised meandering including valley asymmetry with relatively gentle slip-off slopes φ on the inner bends and steep hillslopes θ on cutbanks, cutbank landsliding, and necking. The meander loop around Shetoushan will become abandoned some time in the near future; high stage flows are now attacking both sides of the intermeander spur (red arrows) causing slopes to fail and reducing the ridge height to leave a narrow, sharp, saddle-shaped spur neck. As the ridge continues to fall, deep flows will overtop it and eventually cut off the loop that surrounds Shetoushan. 9 9 a single loop. In an incising system the cutoff process leads to a suite of characteristic landforms. As adjacent bends come together, they attack the elevated intervening intermeander spur from both sides; undercutting in the channel induces slope failure, reducing both the width and elevation of the spur to form a narrow saddle-shaped neck behind a rounded hill at the end of the spur. The morphology of the spur at this point, prior to cutoff, resembles the head and neck of a snake; a famous example along the Jukou River (Zhuókŏuxı̄) in southwestern Taiwan is even called Shetoushan (Shétóushān), which translates as snake head mountain. After cutoff, the head portion of the spur is surrounded by the abandoned channel loop which tends to fill with alluvium and colluvium to form a flat field in otherwise high relief terrain, well-suited for villages, farms, soccer fields, etc. (Figure 3). The position of cutoffs in the landscape and their associated features therefore correspond to the river’s position at the time of active meandering. Mahard (1942) recognized in particular that remnants of an alluvial system, such as oxbow lakes, preserved in the peneplain would be the strongest evidence of inheritance, although we know of no examples of these in nature or literature. Cutoff and abandoned meander loops at a variety of elevations above the channel, however, are very common. Since active meanders form in situ, they obviate the need to invoke a past alluvial phase for explaining existing sinuosity; however, this does not preclude the possibility that the channel used to meander through alluvium (e.g. Winslow 1894; Hack and Young 1959; Leopold et al. 1964; Blank 1970), 10 10 (a) (b) (c) Shetoushan 0 0.5 1 Km Figure 3: The Jukou River river (22.88 ◦ N, 120.65 ◦ E) in Taiwan in a 5 m DEM and SPOT (December 31, 2003), and Formosat-2 (March 17, 2006) images, left to right. This river shows all of the characteristics of active meandering, including cutoff meander loops (purple polygons in the DEM), alternating valley asymmetry with gently-dipping slip-off slopes, and cutoffs. Two extreme floods occured in this basin between the SPOT and Formosat-2 image dates. Landslides that occured during these floods (marked by red polygons in the DEM and arrows in the Formosat image) were limited to the outer bends, indicating that the slopes were destabilized by focused outward erosion around each meander loop. 11 11 or even that the existing planform may retain some features of a geometry that formed in higher stratigraphy (e.g. Harden 1990), perhaps even in alluvium (Twidale 2004). For example, variation of lateral erosion rates with erodibility, or a negative feedback that slows the meandering process with incision (Stark et al. 2008) could each produce an existing planform that is not evolving today but that formed during incision through overlying layers. Whether or not these processes occur remains to be tested. There is also a class of incised meanders which form consequent to bedrock features (e.g. Powell 1875; Jefferson 1897; Strahler 1946) or other external influences such as emerging topography or glacial obstructions (e.g. Challinor 1933). Well-known examples on the Conodoguinet Creek in Pennsylvania and the North Fork of the Shenandoah River in Virginia both have a series of tight loops connected by long, straight, parallel reaches that run perpendicular to a strong cleavage in their shaley bedrock (Strahler 1946; Hack and Young 1959). Lateral cutting occurs on these rivers only where the flow direction matches the cleavage and the force required to erode is minimized. This sort of externally controlled sinuosity is distinctly different from sinuosity that is a function of the interaction of the flow and its boundaries. There are published descriptions of incised meanders in a variety of lithologic, climatic, and tectonic environments (Table 1), and many of them show clear evidence of active meandering. Countless more actively meandering bedrock rivers are visible with spatially variable abundance across the planet 12 12 Table 1: Examples of Incised Meanders Incised Meander Location: References Ozark Mountains of Missouri: Davis (1893a,b); Winslow (1893, 1894) Rich (1914); Tarr (1924); Lancaster (1998) Colorado Plateau: Powell (1875); Sears (1924); Moore (1926a,b) Huber (1981); Harden (1990); Baars (1990) French Lorraine: Davis (1906, 1909); Blache (1939, 1940) Eifel region of Germany: Davis (1906); Flohn (1935) Belgian Ardennes: Davis (1906) Allegheny Plateau of New York: (Davis 1906) Appalachian Mountains: Davis (1906); Bates (1939); Wright (1942) Strahler (1946); Hack and Young (1959); Braun (1983); Brakenridge (1985) Mills and Mills (2001); Twidale (2004) Edwards Plateau of Texas: Blank (1970); Tinkler (1971, 1972) Eastern Highlands of New South Wales, Australia: Young (1970) California Sierra Nevada: Huber (1981) Southern Sierra Nevada of Spain: Jansen (2006) Central American Highlands of Honduras: Rogers et al. (2002) Coast Range of Oregon: Kobor and Roering (2002) Northern Cape Province of South Africa: McCarthy and Toth (2004) Watchung Hills of New Jersey: Ashley et al. (1988) Foothills of the Canadian Rockies: Crickmay (1960) Central and Coastal Mountains of Taiwan: Hovius and Stark (2001) Hsieh et al. (2001); Shyu et al. (2006) 13 13 in any web-based virtual globe program with high resolution imagery. It is clear that the processes of meandering are common not only in alluvial rivers but in incising ones, as well; indeed many theories of meandering suggest that this is entirely expected. 3 Meander theories and bedrock rivers Rivers meander if their boundary shear stresses are erosive along each bank with offset periodicity. Theories of what brings about such a condition have evolved over time, with discussions that have focused on the effects of, for example, centripetal acceleration around bends (e.g. Thomson 1876), boundary shear friction (e.g. Einstein 1926), Coriolis-induced secondary flow currents (e.g. Kalkwijk and Booij 1986), topographic steering of the high velocity thread (e.g. Dietrich and Smith 1983), asymmetry of turbulent eddy generation (e.g. Hey 1976), variations in the vertical flow velocity structure (Engelund and Skovgaard 1973), and periodic sediment bedforms (e.g. Callander 1969). In a classic pair of papers, Langbein and Leopold (1966) and Leopold and Langbein (1966) wrote that river meanders have a shape that simultaneously minimizes the energy required to flow through the bent path and minimizes the variance in direction along that path. Although the curve itself is not a typical sine waveform, the angle Θ that it makes with the down-valley 14 14 direction varies sinusoidally downstream, Θ = ω sin l, (1) where l is the distance along the stream and ω is a coefficient that varies with the angle of the stream when it crosses the valley axis; larger values of ω correspond to fatter loops. This concept of a sine-generated curve proved useful as a mathematical description of meander planform for subsequent modelers (e.g. Parker et al. 1982; Johannesson and Parker 1989; Edwards and Smith 2002; Seminara 2006). However, the shape of anything growing in a periodic curvilinear geometry can be described at any point in its evolution by a sine-generated curve; therefore, while these curves do approximate the shape of many alluvial and incised meanders, they do not provide insight into the processes that cause meanders to form and evolve. Others (e.g. Callander 1969; Parker 1976; Fredsoe 1978) found a physicallybased explanation for meander initiation in an instability that develops as water flows over a mobile bed. Submerged sediment bars tend to grow on alternate sides of the channel; shoaling over these elevated bars and into the adjacent deep pools generates thalweg sinuosity which, they argued, precurses a meandering channel characterized by a wavelength that matches the periodicity of the original bars. This theory was supported by flume experiments in which alternate bars formed along a straight channel prior to the initiation of meandering (Schumm and Khan 1972). However, these bar theories fall short in their attempts to explain meandering dynamics 15 15 for several reasons; most important, they do not include descriptions of bank erosion, which means they can explain sinuosity of the thalweg but not meandering of the channel (e.g. Rhoads and Welford 1991). Furthermore, they require a mobile bed for bar formation and therefore neglect the meanders that form in supraglacial meltwater streams, ocean currents, offshore canyons, and incising bedrock rivers which have at most limited bed sediment. Ikeda et al. (1981) and others (e.g. Parker et al. 1982; Parker and Andrews 1986; Edwards and Smith 2002) have addressed these shortcomings by considering the stability of the channel planform to perturbations of its centerline. These bend theories focus on asymmetry in the flow velocity profile which results from such a perturbation through an interaction of the flow with channel curvature and boundary friction; friction at the walls and bed reduce the flow speed near the boundary, allowing this thread to be more effectively turned around the bends than the faster flow at the free surface (Thomson 1876; Einstein 1926). This causes a secondary flow current in which the high-velocity thread is displaced from bank to opposite bank along the channel; since the shear stress on the channel boundary increases with flow speed (e.g. Guo and Julien 2005), fastest horizontal erosion will tend to occur where the fastest flow thread most closely approaches the channel walls. It is common for the periodic displacement of the fastest flow to be offset with respect to the curvature of the channel centerline; if erosion is maximized downstream from the bend apex, the entire meander train will 16 16 migrate down the valley. At a transect on a bend, the flow asymmetry is characterized in its simplest form by an excess velocity at the concave bank relative to the convex bank; lateral migration of the channel centerline is then explained with an erosion rule that is based on the magnitude of this across-channel velocity variation. Since the redirection of a flow around a curved channel requires a force applied by the outer bank on the flow, a corresponding force is also applied by the flow on the outer bank (e.g. Begin 1981). The likelihood and rate of bank erosion is expected to increase with this force. Increasing curvature boosts the centrifugal acceleration around a bend, enhancing the divergence of near-boundary and near-free surface flow threads. At constant channel width and arc length, this increase in flow asymmetry increases the rate of outer bank erosion (Furbish 1988) in a positive feedback which operates until a stable form is achieved (e.g. Stark et al. 2008), for example, through negative feedbacks between bend growth and its associated slope reduction, or through wall buffering that increases as faster bank erosion produces greater volumes of sediment. On incising rivers, bank erosion may likewise slow with incision if wall buffering increases as hillslopes lengthen. If these negative feedbacks do not occur, erosion rates will increase with curvature until adjacent bends intersect and bypass the loop entirely, cutting it off and resetting the reach sinuosity to 1. Factors that influence the production of secondary currents and the rate of bank erosion include curvature and friction as well as flow speed, dis- 17 17 charge, water surface slope, flow width, and arc length. Bar formation can also play an important role in establishing the initial perturbation (e.g. Blondeaux and Seminara 1985; Johannesson and Parker 1989), but it is not required by bend theories, since curvature and friction alone are sufficient to produce the required flow asymmetry. Importantly, bend theories do not consider the role of sediment, but instead assume that erosion of the outer bank of an alluvial river is matched by bar formation at the other side of the channel. This assumption is not necessary for meandering of incising rivers, since the combination of vertical and horizontal erosion allow the channel to maintain its width passively. In this way, bend theory is arguably more applicable to incising rivers than it is to alluvial ones; in fact incised meanders appear explicitly in several studies (e.g. Ikeda et al. 1981; Parker et al. 1982; Carson and Lapointe 1983; Kitanidis and Kennedy 1984; Blondeaux and Seminara 1985), indicating that for those developing meander theory, there is nothing particularly surprising or unusual about the active meandering of bedrock rivers. However, there are critical differences between meandering rivers that incise and those that do not, and these considerations are the focus of the following section. 18 18 4 Special considerations for incised meanders 4.1 Bankfull discharge Meander models tend to specify flow in terms of some combination of discharge, velocity, or flow depth corresponding to a characteristic event (e.g. Blondeaux and Seminara 1985). For alluvial rivers, the bankfull discharge (e.g. Williams 1978) is a convenient and natural choice. However, the concept of a bankfull discharge has no meaning in incising bedrock channels (Tinkler 1971, 1972), since these are commonly bounded by valley walls with no floodplain; there is no way for an incising river to dynamically adjust the bankfull depth through the construction of natural levees. A statistical choice, such as the mean annual maximum or the 99th percentile discharge, could be an alternative. However, it is unlikely that a single choice would apply to both alluvial and incising rivers, since all floods are confined to an incising bedrock channel, whereas only those that are less than bankfull are confined to an alluvial one. This could significantly affect the relationships of discharge, shear stress, and erosion in bedrock versus alluvial channels; the same long term distribution of discharges should produce different distributions of shear stress in channels with and without floodplains. The best option would be to avoid generalization and consider all of the discharges that occur in a channel, and combine them with empirical data on the hydraulic geometry of each flow. However, this is impractical, since hydraulic geometry depends on channel slope, bed roughness, and 19 19 cross sectional geometry, and is therefore unique at every transect. Instead, empirical data on the spatiotemporal variation of hydraulic geometry and shear stress along alluvial and incising rivers may help to identify a robust statistic or set of statistics to use for generalizing discharge. 4.2 Bank height The erosion of channel banks can occur gradually through shear-related processes like plucking and abrasion, or incrementally through collapses and landslides that result when undercutting in the channel destabilizes the overriding slope. Collapses and landslides produce significant volumes of sediment which buffers the bank, protecting it from further erosion until subsequent flows are sufficiently powerful to erode or remove it; the long term ability of flows to eliminate this sediment may limit the long term rate of horizontal erosion (Seminara 2006). Since the amount of sediment buffering the banks is an increasing function bank height and collapse frequency, an inverse relationship may exist between channel relief and lateral erosion rate (Hickin and Nanson 1975; Nanson and Hickin 1983). Along alluvial rivers, the bank height subject to failure is simply the bankfull depth, but slope failures along incising bedrock channels can extend from the thalweg to the drainage divide. We expect this to result in more buffering along incised channels than alluvial ones, and may result in more buffering with incision if hillslopes are simultaneously lengthening. However, the valley shape of incising rivers may compensate for this by con- 20 20 fining all flows to the channel and maximizing the stresses available to erode the buffering boulders and carry them away; however, the details of such tradeoffs have yet to be addressed in theory, experiments, or observations. 4.3 Bed buffering Bed sediment in an incising channel can be both an agent of erosion and a protective covering against it, causing the rate of downcutting to be a nonlinear function of sediment supply with a positive correlation at small loads and a negative one at higher loads (Gilbert 1877). Moore (1926a) applied this idea to a curved channel and wrote that “the effectiveness of sideward cutting in proportion to downcutting seems to be controlled by the relative loading of the stream...if the load is relatively large, and especially if it consists in part of coarse material which is rolled and slid along the stream bed, there is a blanketing effect which partly protects the bed...and the effect of the erosion on the unprotected side walls which is thus produced is relatively very important.” Similarly, (Tinkler 1971, 1972) argued that to accomplish any downcutting in a mixed bedrock-alluvial channel, there must be a recurrent flood of great enough magnitude to clear all of the sediment and expose the bed to erosion. Otherwise, only lateral erosion would be possible. This is supported by flume experiments in which flow through an initially sinuous channel in a simulated isotropic bedrock of sand, silt, and kaolinite clay incises downward only when all of the available sediment is entrained; while there is bed 21 21 sediment, erosion occurs at the outer bank of the bends (Shepherd 1972; Shepherd and Schumm 1974; Dury et al. 1976). Studies of natural channels have also shown that bedcover may induce widening (e.g. Pazzaglia et al. 1998; Pazzaglia and Brandon 2001; Hancock and Anderson 2002), which, unless perfectly symmetric, results in centerline migration. However, the effect of bed sediment is likely complicated by shape of the channel and the relative scale of the discharge variation and the sediment extent, thickness, quality, and caliber. For example, flows of a certain magnitude may be required to wet the banks, and even greater flows may be required to accomplish bank erosion. These extreme floods that erode the channel walls may also carry enough sediment to protect and cover the bed, leaving the steeper banks exposed (Turowski et al. 2008). Meanwhile, discharges at lower stage than is required to wet the banks may be sufficient to move enough bed sediment to attack the channel bed. Thus the most powerful events may carve the channel walls while the bed is protected by bed sediment, while significantly less extreme discharges may be required to erode the bed while the banks remain dry. Bed sediment on incising rivers is typically thin and intermittent, but it is commonly extensive enough to potentially form the alternate bars which meander bar theories require for the initiation of thalweg sinuosity, and which can produce the perturbations required by bend theories of meandering to initiate channel curvature (e.g. Ikeda et al. 1981). Thus bedload need not be eliminated from theories or models of meanders along incising bedrock 22 22 rivers, although differences with respect to alluvial sediment in grain size and cohesion should be considered. 4.4 Erodibility In general, incising rivers have stronger, less erodible banks than alluvial ones, which, all else equal, will result in slower meandering (Davis 1913; Tinkler 1971); along incising rivers, the meandering rate should increase with bedrock erodibility. Likewise, harder rocks should be more likely to preserve existing sinuosity against both loop enlargement and downstream migration, while weaker rocks would be more vulnerable to lateral erosion (Jefferson 1897; Davis 1906). In soft or weak enough bedrock, sinuosity could even disappear through downstream migration or erosion of the overlapping spurs (Moore 1926a; Cole 1930, 1937). For example, in the Virginia Appalachians, meanders cut into weak shaley rocks tend to have amplitudes two to three times the size of nearby meanders with similar wavelength and drainage area that are cut into harder, massive carbonates; if these rivers have been evolving for the same amount of time, lateral erosion is at least twice as fast in the weaker rocks (Braun 1983; Abrahams 1985). How erodibility influences the relative rates of centerline migration and downcutting is not immediately obvious, since a range processes may be in competition. For example, if erodibility promotes lateral erosion, it may lead to greater sediment loads which may act to protect the weaker bed, thereby slowing down vertical incision. Or, that same increased lateral erosion may 23 23 be accomplished through undercutting and slope destabilization, that contributes to a negative feedback due to increased wall buffering. Investigations of rock strength and meandering rates may help to clarify whether or not these feedbacks exist and how they work. 4.5 Bank heterogeneity Meander bend theories do not yet explicitly account for the formation of multiple loops, along which curvature changes more frequently than the dominant wavelength of sinuosity. However, Lancaster and Bras (2002)’s numerical experiments indicate that topographic steering (Dietrich and Smith 1983) of the bed may be sufficient, but they noted that heterogeneity of bank erodibility is also likely to be important. Bank erodibility varies along alluvial meanders due to the lacustrine plugs that form in oxbow lakes, and along bedrock rivers due to changes in lithology and lithologic structure, or to anisotropy of structures that causes erodibility to vary with flow direction. If heterogeneity is to be included in meander models, its sources, which differ in incising and alluvial meanders, should also be considered. 5 Incised meander valley morphology and mesurement of meander rate Changes in channel width w and centerline migration dx/dt both depend on how each bank moves through erosion and deposition with respect to 24 24 some fixed datum. If we consider the sign on the bank migration to indicate erosion (positive) or deposition (negative), then w at a given transect will always change unless the sum of the migrations of each bank is zero. Such a condition could occur at a transect where both banks have zero migration, or, on an alluvial river, from erosion on one bank and equal-magnitude deposition on the other. Along an incising river, no deposition is required, since erosion of the bed and one bank passively sets the position of the other bank according to the flow depth. Migration of the centerline will always occur unless the bank migrations are equal magnitude and oppositely directed. Channel planform reconstructions built through observations of fossil banks, levees, swales, and paleosols, combined with radiocarbon ages can reveal rates and histories of lateral channel migration (e.g. Brakenridge 1985). Time series imagery can also provide information on channel migration (Crickmay 1960), although this is of limited use unless migration rates are exceedingly high and/or the temporal baseline of the image series is sufficiently long. Where such data is not available, we can at least infer the relative rates of centerline migration and vertical incision from the shape of the valley. Along a channel transect with dx/dt = 0, the slope of the valley walls is set by a lithologically or structurally controlled hillslope angle θ. Where dx/dt = 0, a slip-off-slope angle φ is defined by the arctangent of the ratio of bed erosion dz/dt to dx/dt. The active or cut-bank side of a such a channel’s valley will 25 25 have a slope set by θ, but the passive slip off slope side will have a slope set by θ or by φ, whichever is smaller (Figure 4). If there is a fluvially set slip-off slope angle φ, and if the rate of bed erosion dz/dt is greater than zero, φ alone provides an estimate of the relative rates of horizontal and vertical erosion; estimation of the absolute dx/dt also requires a knowledge of dz/dt, since dz/dt dx = , dt tan φ (2) for φ > 0. Although valley symmetry has long been considered an indicator of zero dx/dt, we expect any transect where dx/dt is relatively too small to produce a stable φ given the local value of θ to have a symmetric cross section. Thus the most we can say for a symmetric valley is 0≤ dz/dt dx ≤ . dt tan θ (3) Since hillslope angle θ is strongly influenced by bedding, cleavage, and joints, it may be spatially non-uniform, resulting in structurally-controlled crossvalley asymmetry (e.g. Judson and Andrews 1955). Inferences about dx/dt made qualitatively through observations of valley geometry or quantitatively with Equation 2 should always be supported by field evidence that the asymmetry in question does not have this sort of structural influence. As a case study, we considered the Hsiukuluan (Xiùgūlúan) River (Figure 5), which drains the Central Mountains of Taiwan and flows north 26 26 a) b) |dxmax| dt T |dx| dt T dz dt T c) dz dt I |dx1| dt |dx2,max| dz1 dt dt dz2 dt T I T Figure 4: Schematic valley shapes. a) A symmetric valley with walls that have slopes set by the hillslope angle θ on both sides. This valley shape does not indicate the direction or magnitude of channel centerline migration since the rate of horizontal erosion is too small relative to downcutting to preserve slip-off slopes; however, lateral erosion and centerline migration may still occur in such a valley, with a rate described by Equation 3. b) An asymmetric valley with a stable slip-off slope angle φ on one side and the hillslope angle θ on the other. Here horizontal erosion is relatively fast enough to preserve a record of the relative rates of horizontal and vertical erosion in the slip-off-slope, while the cutbank slope is maintained by slope failure. c) A valley in which the ratio of horizontal to vertical erosion decreased, either through a reduction of horizontal erosion or through an increase in downcutting. The dotted line marks the break in topographic slope, but it does not necessarily denote the point in time when the transition in erosion rate ratios occured. This is because the relative increase in vertical erosion causes hillslopes on both sides of the valley to fail: if the relative rates of horizontal and vertical erosion match the hillslope angle, and horizontal erosion continues to operate on the left side of this schematic valley, then the slope break marks the point in time when a change in erosion rate ratios occured; otherwise, slope failure on the right side of the valley will cut into the slip-off slope, eventually eliminating it entirely and forming a symmetric valley like the one in (a). 27 27 through the Longitudinal Valley. It then makes a sharp turn to cross highly erodible flysch and turbidite sediments of the western flank of the Coastal Range. Near the range axis, it crosses the Chimei (Qı̆meı̆) fault and crosses harder andesitic volcanic rocks before reaching the Pacific Ocean (e.g. Yu and Kuo 2001; Shyu et al. 2006) (Figure 5). The valley position appears to be antecedent to the uplift of the coastal mountains, but the river is extremely sinuous and along its bends are several cutoff meander loops that indicate this channel’s rapid planform evolution through orogenesis. Alluvial deposits within the cutoff loops are proof that these are abandoned channel segments. Patches of similar deposits all along the intermeander slip-off slope spurs indicate that these are fluvial features formed through simultaneous incision and centerline migration. Shyu et al. (2006) obtained 14C ages from several of the spurs (Figure 5) and found incision rates to vary along the channel and through time between 11.2 and 27.3 mm y−1 . We measured the slip-off slope angles along the ridge of each intermeander spur of the Hsiukuluan River from a 40m DEM of Taiwan. Using these, along with Shyu et al. (2006)’s estimates of dz/dt, we deduced through Equation 2 the outward horizontal erosion rate at each of the bends (Figure 6). Since valley geometry is a function of the relative rates of dx/dt and dz/dt, its variation can result from along stream changes in either dx/dt or dz/dt. This is complicated along the Coastal Range Hsiukuluan since the river crosses both a growth anticline which has uplift rates that are fastest near the ridge axis (Lavé and Avouac 2001), and a fault that brings hard metased- 28 28 122°E 24°N 25°N 120°E 22°N 23°N I A n/a C K M ~12.3–12.9 G ~22.7–27.3 >10–10.7 11.6–12.4 Q ~11.2–12.5 O ~15.1–19.1 E ~17.2–19.3 n/a n/a J L N B R S P >17.5–18.3 D F H T 0 0.5 1 2 Km Figure 5: Hillshaded 40m DEM of the Hsiukuluan River with inset location map of Taiwan. Cross-valley profiles are drawn down the ridge line of minimum slope on each meander spur and are shown in figure 6. The approximate location of the Chimei Fault, a lithologic boundary between hard andesitic volcanics to the east and weaker flysch and turbidite sediments to the west, is also shown. Stars indicate Shyu et al. (2006)’s sample locations along with their inferred incision rates in mm yr−1 . Contour interval is 100 m. 29 29 Elevation above sea level [m] 196-251 mm yr 15.1-19.3 Elevation above sea level [m] Elevation above sea level [m] L 36.6˚ mm yr-1 K 10-12.9 4.7˚ í í C í 216-276 N 33-42 mm yr-1 17˚ 21.9˚ 15.1-19.3 10-12.9 4˚ 18.5˚ M í í í 254-325 P O mm yr-1 20.2˚ 20.9˚ n/a 15.1-19.3 E F 10.9˚ 3.4˚ n/a í í í mm yr G 36.1˚ -1 Q 15.1-19.3 H 13.5˚ n/a í í J 8.8˚ 21.7˚ í 20.3˚ n/a í T 26.4˚ 10-12.9 S mm yr-1 I í 65-83 n/a í R 13.8˚ 13.6˚ í 62-80 D mm yr-1 í Elevation above sea level [m] B 22.6˚ 4.4˚ í Elevation above sea level [m] A 122-157 -1 n/a í Distance from thalweg [m] í Distance from thalweg [m] Figure 6: Caption on next page 30 30 Figure 6: Valley topography looking downstream across the Hsiukuluan River at locations shown in Figure 5. Transects AB, CD, EF, and IJ are all almost entirely within the weaker flysh and turbidite sediments. Transects OP, QR, and ST are entirely within the stronger volcanics. KL, and MN are bisected by the fault, with the cutbank of KL in harder rocks and the cutbank of MN in softer rocks. In general, channel geometry has alternating asymemtry west of the fault, and is symmetric to the east, indicating that the relative rate of horizontal erosion corresponds to the erodibility of the bedrock. Application of Equation 2 to Shyu et al. (2006)’s incision rate estimates and the slope of a linear regression of the inside bank’s valley wall (segments used for fitting are in thick grey) yields rates of horizontal erosion. In this case, we applied the range of incision rates for the upstream cluster of samples to transects AB through GH, and the range of dates for the downstream cluster of samples to transects IJ through MN. Without constraint on the incision rates east of the Chimei fault, we are unable to estimate horizontal erosion, but we know from the hillslope angles the maximum erosion rate ratios. Note that the geometry of EF, and MN are also complicated by a cutoff loop. 31 31 iments and volcanics next to weak turbidites. This lithologic change occurs a few kilometers from the coast, with the harder bedrock downstream, and seems to have a clear effect on the valley shape across the fault. Although there has yet to be a thorough investigation of the relative response of dx/dt and dz/dt to changes in uplift rate and erodibility, and although there is limited constraint on dz/dt within the harder volcanics east of the Chimei fault, we found that the transects with fastest dz/dt tend also to have the fastest dx/dt within the flysch and turbidite sediments. Marked valley asymmetry in the weaker substrates has slip-off slopes on the inside of each bend with φ produced by the relative rates of centerline migration and downcutting; east of the fault, in the harder rocks, the valley is symmetric, with lateral erosion is relatively too slow to preserve stable slip-off slopes and with valley slopes on both sides set by θ. 6 Implications for inferences on tectonics Fluvial incision into bedrock channels communicates local changes in base level throughout the channel network and ultimately sets the pace of landscape evolution. The vertical component is commonly considered to be a function of stream power (e.g. Seidl and Dietrich 1992), or boundary shear stress (e.g. Howard 1994) through a stream power law, dz = kAm S n , dt 32 32 (4) where dz/dt is the rate of vertical erosion, A is drainage area which serves as a surrogate for a characteristic discharge, and S is channel slope. The coefficient k may depend on anything other than slope and area that may affect incision, such as erodibility, climate, cross sectional channel geometry, flow hydraulics, roughness, and the volume, grain size, and cover extent of sediment load (e.g. Whipple et al. 2000; Wobus et al. 2006a). Rearranged, Equation 4 gives a description of channel longitudinal profiles, m S = ks A− n , (5) where ks , the steepness index, is ((dz/dt)/k)1/n (e.g. Whipple 2004). The exponents m and n also vary with several influences, including erosion process, channel hydraulic geometry, debris flow frequency, and alluviation (e.g. Whipple 2004). Their ratio m/n describes the concavity of the channel long profile and is commonly called the concavity index (e.g. Sklar and Dietrich 1998; Whipple 2004; Wobus et al. 2006a). A river which incises at a rate that matches rock uplift U has widths and slopes that are adjusted to maintain this balance; narrower and steeper channels counter faster uplift rates. If widths have simple scaling with contributing drainage area (e.g. Whipple 2004), the form of Equation 5 for adjusted channels should vary with U , since ks is a function of dz/dt. In this case, plots of slope against area should provide information about the relative rates of uplift among nearby catchments; the scaling of channel slope versus upstream area has been shown to increase with uplift rate (e.g. Kirby 33 33 et al. 2003; Wobus et al. 2006a), so that relative uplift rates may be inferred from the slopes of such plots. However, absent tectonic complications, any increase in sinuosity occurs with an increase in reach length and results in a reduction of slope, which means meandering rivers have slopes that can change irrespective of contributing drainage area. This will reduce the scaling of slope and area in much the same way as we expect from a reduction of uplift rate (Figure 7). Therefore, inferences about tectonics drawn from a relationship of slope to area may be wrong unless the development of sinuosity is also considered. There is a limit to the magnitude of this effect, since cutoffs prevent reach sinuosities from growing indefinitely; however, it implies that a condition of equilibrium between uplift and incision rates may require channels to narrow in response to sinuosity-driven slope reduction, against the assumptions of how channels widen predictably downstream. More important, this type of narrowing is exactly opposite what we expect to occur based on the increased flux of sediment to the channel that should also result from sinuosity growth, since increased sediment supply tends to drive widening (e.g. Pazzaglia et al. 1998; Pazzaglia and Brandon 2001; Hancock and Anderson 2002). Alternatively, meandering rivers may be able to restore their adjusted slopes and maintain slope-area relationships that reveal U by allowing the entire catchment to tilt, something that has been shown to occur in alluvial channels (Harbor 1998). If it occurs in incising rivers as well, it implies that active meandering indicates a state of transience, and that passive mean- 34 34 138°10'0"E 138°20'0"E 138°30'0"E 28°30'0"N p o 28°30'0"N n h g 28°20'0"N m l i j k f 28°20'0"N e 28°10'0"N d c 28°10'0"N b a 138°10'0"E 138°20'0"E 138°30'0"E Drainage area [km2] 350 p p 300 Elevation [m] 250 Cl z 1.64 o o o m j k 100 h gf e h gf e 0 150 d d c b a b c e b d d a 0 Figure 7: Caption on next page. 35 c e ff a b a c 100 50 Distance from mouth [km] 35 i h l i i g g l k j i kj n m l k 50 h j l 150 í 10 o m m 3 10 n p Cl z 1 n n 200 2 10 p í 10 *UDGLHQW>í@ 1 10 Figure 7: Top: Hillshaded Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) 3arcsecond digital elevation model (DEM) of the Shimanto River with inset showing location in Shikoku, Japan. The black network was derived through standard flowrouting over the SRTM topography using a drainage-hillslope threshold of 1000 pixels (≈ 8 km2 ). The heavy black line is the trunk channel of the catchment, selected as the path of maximum upstream area at each junction. A reducedsinuosity version of the trunk stream path was drawn between nodes of the channel network and is shown in red. The mean sinuosity of the SRTM-derived channel is 1.64, but at the reach scale it varies from 1.1 to 2.6. The elevations at each node were extracted from the DEM and combined with the path lengths between nodes to determine the long profiles and the slopes of the channel and its straightened analog. Bottom: Long profile and slope-area plots of the Shimanto River’s trunk channel and its straightened analog. Sinuosity growth lengthens the channel and reduces the slope-area scaling in a way that is similar to what Wobus et al. (2006b) showed for slow versus fast zones of uplift. That is, the effect on a slope-area plot from increasing sinuosity is the same as the effect from reducing uplift. 36 36 dering should take over upon restoration of steady state. It also implies that catchment relief may increase through sinuosity development. Since meander models suggest that that bank erosion is strongly dependent on discharge, incised meandering may provide a previously unrecognized mechanism through which climate can produce topographic relief. At the very least, slope adjustments that occur with meandering should introduce considerable noise to a slope-area plot and could even obscure the differences in uplift rate these curves seek to reveal (Figure 7). It may be possible to infer tectonics from topography through Equation 5 for some regions, but doing so requires an assumption that any changes in slope, width, roughness, and sediment load character that are due to active meandering will be captured by the steepness index ks . A better option would be to explore in detail the factors that contribute to and suppress meandering along incising rivers and to incorporate these into a new model of bedrock erosion that includes these considerations; until then, models of landscape evolution are unlikely to reproduce the landforms associated with meandering. 7 Conclusions The contribution of bedrock river erosion to landscape evolution involves processes that modify both the bed and the banks, so it is important to consider horizontal processes with as much attention as has been afforded to vertical incision. This requires the identification and analysis of the forces that drive bank erosion and the conditions that affect it in incising rivers, 37 37 instead of ignoring them or simply collapsing them into a catch-all prefactor like the steepness index ks . 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The role of fluvial incision into bedrock and in the relationships and feedbacks among landscape, climate, and tectonics have motivated geomorphology research for many years. Much of this work has considered channel bed erosion and its responses to tectonically controlled slopes and climatically controlled discharges to be of primary importance, while considering bank erosion to be of secondary or very little relevance. However, incising rivers widen, migrate, and even meander through processes of horizontal erosion that can outpace downcutting, that can have a strong effect on the shape and evolution of mountain landscapes, and that respond to tectonic and climatic forcing. Here we show that bedrock channel planforms, which are the accumulated effect of bank erosion and its changes along stream and through time, are strongly correlated to the variability of rainfall, the relative flood intensity, and the frequency of extreme storm events in the island mountains of the western North Pacific. These results indicate that a quantitative signature of climatology is recorded in the planforms of incising rivers. 49 49 1. Introduction The assumption that bedrock streams maintain fixed planform geometries along which all changes in slope result from the competing processes of vertical incision and rock uplift implies that incising rivers do not migrate laterally, or if they do, it is of minor consequence to the evolution of mountain landscapes. However, evidence for bank erosion along bedrock rivers is ubiquitous, for example, in straths which form through channel widening during pauses of thalweg lowering [e.g. Bucher , 1932; Smith, 1947; Merritts et al., 1994; Pazzaglia and Brandon, 2001; Finnegan et al., 2005], and in incised meanders erode laterally at alternating banks during incision, with rates that vary around each bend. Active meandering along incising rivers leaves behind a wake of characteristic landforms such as abandoned channel banks [e.g. Brakenridge, 1985], slip-off slopes [e.g. Rich, 1914; Tarr , 1924; Moore, 1926], and cutoff meander loops [e.g. Mahard , 1942; Hovius and Stark , 2001]. The loops of incised meanders can have many of the same features as alluvial meanders, including compound or multibend shapes, neck cutoffs, and geometries that skew with to up- or downstream bend migration. A classic interpretation is that sinuosity along incising rivers is inherited from a prior alluvial phase, locked in when incision rejuvenates during, for example, to regional uplift, sea level fall, or climate change [e.g. Powell , 1875; Davis, 1893; Sears, 1924; Bretz , 1962]. This idea has led to inferences that use the present shape of incised meanders as windows into tectonic and climatic pasts [e.g. Davis, 1893; Gardner , 1975; Huber , 1981; Rogers et al., 2002]. However, field observations [e.g. Brakenridge, 1985; Hartshorn et al., 2002], laboratory experiments [e.g. Shepherd, 1972; Shepherd and Schumm, 1974], and 50 50 physically-based theoretical results [eg Turowski et al., 2008; Stark , 2006; Stark et al., 2007] prove the opposite, that lateral cutting can be active during incision. This indicates that assumptions about fixed/inherited planforms and interpretations of the histories they reveal are not only unfounded, but are also likely incorrect. Some theories of meandering apply specifically to alluvial rivers, since they require cohesive banks and fine-grained mobile bend material [e.g. Callander , 1969; Fredsoe, 1978]. Others focus instead on the influence of channel curvature on the interaction of the flow with an erodible bank [e.g. Ikeda et al., 1981]. These meander bend theories do not consider the composition of the channel boundaries; therefore, they apply equally to alluvial and incising bedrock rivers. Positive feedbacks of bend growth which depend on planform characteristics such as channel width, meander wavelength, and curvature [e.g. Begin, 1981; Parker et al., 1982; Furbish, 1988] should be active along incising channels, and sinuosity is expected to grow through erosion at the outer bends and shrink through neck and shoot cutoffs [e.g. Seminara, 2006]. However, there are a number of important distinctions between incising and alluvial meanders; for example, bedrock rivers tend to have larger bed sediment particles, less erodible channel boundaries, and greater alongchannel slopes. The concept of bankfull discharge does not apply to bedrock rivers which are confined to narrow valleys with no floodplain, and this can influence the depth of the extreme floods and therefore also the range of shear stresses driven by the discharge distribution. The analog for alluvial bank collapse on an incising river is a landslide, and since bank heights on incising rivers can extend from the channel thalweg all the way to the ridge crest, landslides can produce significantly more sediment than an alluvial bank collapses; this sediment can have a buffering effect on both the wall at the foot of 51 51 the slope failure and on the bed downstream. Incising meanders also differ from alluvial ones in the composition of their point bars: on an alluvial meander, point bars are made of sediment transported from upstream, but on incising rivers, they tend to have only a thin veneer of coarse sediment over bedrock that is effectively supplied from below. Both alluvial and incising rivers can reduce their sinuosity through cutoffs, but incising rivers may also reduce sinuosity through phases of alluviation in which a temporary fill of sediment supports a straighter, braided channel that traverses and eventually cuts down across the elevated overlapping inter-meander spurs. Some of these differences may contribute to negative feedbacks along incising rivers that work against the positive feedbacks associated with curvature and bending; for example, as hillslopes lengthen with incision, landsliding at the outer banks may produce more sediment causing greater wall buffering and slowing bank erosion. Changes in sinuosity are always accompanied by changes in longitudinal structure, since during sinuosity growth, channels lengthen and slopes decrease. Although this can affect slope-dependent measures such as bed shear stress and stream power, most recent inquiries into the roles of bedrock erosion in landscape evolution tend not to consider bank erosion as a mechanism for slope adjustment [e.g. Tinkler and Wohl , 1998; Whipple, 2004]. We do not yet understand the roles of discharge, sediment load, channel slope, and bedrock erodibility in controlling the pace or style of bank erosion, nor do we know what feedbacks relate bank erosion to vertical incision. Answers to these questions will help to clarify the range of ways that bank erosion affects catchment morphology. 52 52 2. Study area An actively meandering river can, at any time, be straight along any of its reaches. Measures of channel sinuosity at a given time along a single river should not necessarily correlate to the parameters that control lateral cutting. However, the average rate of lateral cutting along a river is likely to be a function of tectonics (slopes), climate (discharges), and lithology (erodibility), each of which acts regionally. Therefore, the effect of these parameters on mountain river sinuosity should be understandable at a scale much broader than a single reach. For landscapes evolving at a similar pace and over a similar length of time, regions with tectonic, climatic, and/or lithologic conditions that promote lateral cutting should tend to have a preponderance of sinuous mountain rivers, while mountain regions with conditions that do not promote lateral cutting should tend to have a network of incising rivers with straighter reaches. For this reason, we have taken a regional approach, focusing our analysis on the islands of Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Borneo, and New Guinea. These islands cross the western North Pacific ocean, where climatology is dominated by the world’s most active tropical cyclone basin. Storms are most frequent in the tropics (northern Philippines and Taiwan) and decrease toward the mid-latitudes (along the axis of Japan) and toward the equator (along the axis of the Philippines and southward to Borneo and New Guinea). Parts of Taiwan, for example, which sits near the center of the cyclone basin, have been hit by an average of nearly two typhoons per year over the past two decades, some of which drive rain rates up to a meter per day [Wu and Kuo, 1999]; by comparison, Northern Honshu, Japan, is affected by a typhoon once every two or three years at most. This variability of tropical cyclone frequency across the cyclone basin provides a unique opportunity to 53 53 understand the role of storminess on river network geometry. Furthermore, our decision to focus on tropical to extra-tropical active mountains avoids the complications of present day and recent glaciation, since rapid evolution of these areas means that the fluvial and hillslope processes are acting fast enough to have largely erased glacial and periglacial features. Differences in lithology and tectonics may confound the effect of typhoon climatology on the landscape by promoting or restricting the rates of the erosion processes. We have loosely accounted for both of these by limiting our analysis to a selection high relief areas within the accretionary subduction zone complexes of our selected islands along the eastern margin of the Eurasian continent: the Japan Volcanic Arc and Accreted Terrain, the Taiwan Thrust and Fold Belt, the Philippine Accretionary Prism, the Rajang-Crocker Accretionary Prism in northeastern Borneo, and the New Guinea Foreland Mobile Belt and Foreland Basin Fold Belt [names and areas as defined by Steinshouer et al., 1997]. Although each area is a different litho-stratigraphic terrane and is comprised of a different distribution of lithologies and erodibilities, all have been forming by similar subduction and accretion processes and therefore have similar characteristics; for example, these regions tend to consist mainly of accreted Cenozoic island arcs and arc fragments, ophiolites, olistostrome mélange, turbidites, and Cretaceous volcanics [e.g. Brown et al., 1980; Benard et al., 1990; Faure and Natalin, 1992; Hutchison, 1992; Honza et al., 2000; Hall , 2002; Belaguru and Nichols, 2004; Peucker-Ehrenbrink and Miller , 2004] and they have similar age distributions [Steinshouer et al., 1997]. Our concentration on the high relief parts of these regions further ensures that we have excluded anomalously soft substrates and instead are considering only rivers flowing through bedrock. 54 54 It is possible that the same climatologically-controlled landscape features could result from conditions that promote rapid evolution at work for a short time, or from conditions that promote slow evolution at work for a long time. Since the same tropical cyclone basin dominates the climatology across the entire study area, we can assume that its effect has been felt by all of the landscapes for similar periods of time. Differences in climatologically-controlled landscape features in this region are therefore likely to be the result the strength, rather than duration, of the relevant climate parameters. 3. Data 3.1. Climatology data The Joint Typhoon Warning Center provides an archive of approximately 60 years of tropical storm data. We used a version of the dataset with 1676 storm tracks for events that occurred in the western North Pacific cyclone basin between 1945 and 2002. Each record includes the maximum wind speed and the coordinates of the storm’s center at 6-hour intervals. Recent storm records also list the storm type classification (tropical depression, tropical storm, typhoon, or supertyphoon), the storm radius, and the eye diameter. The Hotspots dataset includes global risk maps for several natural hazards, including tropical cyclones, which are provided in raster form as the total number of events that occurred over each pixel in the past 20 years, taking into account both the track and the evolving storm radius. Monthly rain gauge data is available from the NOAA Global Historical Climate Network for thousands of stations world wide. We used data for 169 stations within or just outside the mountains of the western North Pacific islands. 55 55 We acquired river discharge data from three sources. The Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) provided data for rivers in the Philippines and Borneo, and for some rivers in Japan. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Japan provided data for additional rivers in Japan. The Water Resources Agency (WRA) of Taiwan provided data for rivers in Taiwan. Discharge is available from these sources as daily and monthly means computed from continuous stage recorder measurements. The WRA also provided a limited number of the hourly stage measurements from one gauge. 3.2. Optical remote sensing data The University of Maryland’s Global Landcover Facility (http://glcf.umiacs.umd.edu/data) is an archive of optical remote sensing imagery at a variety of processing levels and from a variety of sensors. One product on offer is a nearly global collection of orthorectified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images. With 28.5 meter pixels, this imagery is able to resolve the sinuosity of most mountain rivers, and is commonly sufficient to identify channels that are actively meandering; abandoned loops tend to be optically distinct from their surroundings because their flat fill of alluvium and colluvium makes them ideal sites for villages and farms, and because these tend to be accentuated by the shadows cast by the old valley walls (Figure 1). GoogleEarth has provided a much more convenient platform for seamlessly surveying surface characteristics in very high resolution DigitalGlobe imagery, making it a useful tool for validation of Landsat observations. However, this dataset is a mosaic of fully but not necessarily consistently processed images at different resolutions acquired on sometimes unspecified dates, so it is not well-suited for unbiased regional comparisons. 56 56 1 2 km Figure 1: Examples of active meanders visible in Landsat TM 28.5 m data displayed as RGB-351 color composites along the Nakagawa River at 33.80 ◦ N, 134.45 ◦ E, Tokushima Prefecture, eastern Shikoku Island, Japan. Dotted circles mark channel loops that have been cutoff and abandoned. 57 3.3. SRTM digital topography The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) 3-arcsecond digital elevation model is a snapshot of global topography from 56 ◦ S to 60 ◦ N acquired from a single instrument during an 11-day mission in February of 2000. However, the data suffers from abundant no-data cells associated with shadowing, layover, and backscatter problems, as well as offshore cells with erroneous elevations due to radar returns from rough seas. Despite these issues, some of which have already been addressed and corrected in recent releases of the dataset, its consistency, resolution and extent make it ideal for a regional comparison of landforms. We assembled SRTM Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) for the islands of Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Borneo, and New Guinea. This included several steps: projection of each DEM to minimize the distortion of distance; elimination of offshore data values; interpolation across onshore voids; filling local topographic minima to generate gridded topography on which all possible drainage paths end at the coastline. 4. Methods 4.1. Mapping tropical storm frequency and statistics of rainfall and discharge We interpolated the 6-hour JTWC storm center locations to create tracks, and we projected the tracks onto a Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area projection centered over Taiwan at 121 ◦ E and 23 ◦ N. Many storms in this area initiate over the tropical Pacific, move west toward the Asian continent and then swing north toward Japan. Some travel more than 100 km into the continent and others die over the ocean before making landfall. Because the storm type and storm diameter information is only available for the youngest storms, we chose to convert each track in the archive to a common 200 km wide swath gridded at 20 km representing the approximate region affected by an average 58 58 storm. We assigned a value of 1 inside the swath and 0 outside the swath. Summing the set of 1676 swaths and dividing by the 58 years represented by the data yielded a rasterized map showing the annual number of storm centers that pass within 200 km of each pixel. Assuming that this average storm diameter applies to the entire dataset, the resulting map pixels can be interpreted as measures of tropical cyclone strike frequency (y−1 ). We combined the JTWC storm tracks for the western North Pacific with a smoothed version (200 km median filter) of the Hotspots gridded storm data for the western South Pacific, which affects the south eastern tip of New Guinea. Since the Hotspots and JTWC datasets represent different periods of time and were processed differently, we first applied a minor correction to the entire Hotspots dataset that minimizes the difference between the western North Pacific storm frequencies of the Hotspots and JTWC datasets. We assessed the hydrologic effect of storms through a comparison to the gauge statistics. For each rain and river gauge, we computed first and second order statistics including the mean of rainfall Rμ and discharge Qμ , the standard deviations Rσ and Qσ , and the coefficients of variation Rcv and Qcv , which are the standard deviations normalized by the means. We computed a host of other statistics of the discharge data, including the 99th and 50th percentiles Q99 and Q50 , the skewness Qskew , mean runoff (Qμ normalized by drainage area), runoff variability (Qσ normalized by drainage area). We also measured the relative flood intensity as the 99th percentile discharge normalized by drainage area. 4.2. Mapping sinuosity We surveyed GLCF Landsat TM imagery of all of the islands of the western North Pacific from New Guinea in the east to Myanmar in the west, and from Timor in the south 59 59 to Sakhalin Island in the north, as well as imagery on the continent in eastern China, the Koreas, the Malay Peninsula and northern Australia. We evaluated the rivers in mountainous terrain, noting the abundance of sinuous rivers and evidence that the sinuosity is actively evolving, such as cutoff meander loops, valley asymmetry, and meander skewness. Our survey of Landsat images revealed that sinuous mountain rivers with evidence of meander activity are most common on the islands of the western North Pacific cyclone basin, such as Taiwan, Luzon, and Shikoku, and where bedrock lithology is especially weak, such as the Loess Plateau of China and the Quaternary volcanics of North Korea. We infer from these observations that storms enhance bank erosion while rock strength limits it, which is consistent with the Montgomery [2004]’s observation of an inverse relationship between lithologic strength and strath cutting, and with Hartshorn et al. [2002]’s observations of bedrock channel bank erosion that occurred preferentially during a supertyphoon flood. To map these observations quantitatively from topography alone, we made two simplifying assumptions. The first is that rivers in high relief areas are bedrock channels [Turowski et al., 2008]. The second is that the sinuosity of these rivers is a proxy measure for the rate of their meander development; faster meandering produces more sinuous rivers. Although cutoffs complicate this assumption, they occur locally and at different loops at different times, such that a rapidly meandering channel will tend to maintain high sinuosity values along a series of loops. With these assumptions, we developed a regionalized measure of mountain river sinuosity which is based on the ensemble of channel network segments for a specified area and which can be obtained directly from the DEM. Its computation requires the extraction 60 60 of the channel network from digitized topography, which we accomplished with standard GIS flow-routing techniques applied to the SRTM data for Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Borneo, and New Guinea: first we determined flow direction from each pixel, and then accumulated flow downhill, and finally applied a flow-accumulation threshold to separate network and hillslope pixels. We used a threshold of 1000 pixels, or approximately 8 square kilometers, since a comparison with Landsat imagery indicated that SRTM-derived channels with smaller support areas do not closely match the planform of the channels they represent. For each river network link between two tributary junctions, we computed the alongchannel length l, the straight line node-node down-valley length L, and the elevation change dz. We used these measures to compute the along channel slope Sl = straight line node-node down-valley slope SL = dz , L and the sinuosity s = l L dz , l the of each network segment. We then restricted our analysis to steep terrain by eliminating all channel reaches flowing through areas with less than 500 meters of elevation change within a 5 kilometer radius. We further limited our study areas to the subduction zone complexes of Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Borneo, and New Guinea as they are identified in vector GIS layers of Steinshouer et al. [1997]. We also clipped away any channel reaches that crossed interpolated SRTM data voids. The sinuosity s and the total along-channel length of each network segment i that remained after clipping l∗ (Figure 2b,c) contributed to the calculation of regionalized 61 61 145°E 45°N 130°E s = 1.33 35°N (b) s = 1.10 L (a) l s = 1.59 s = 1.16 0 1.25 2.5 L 5 Km l* l (c) 0 1.25 2.5 5 Km 10°N (d) 0° 5°N (e) 15°N Ȥ Ȥ Ȥ 110°E 120°E 1 Regionalized sinuosity Ȥ [-] and Link sinuosity s [-] 1.5 Figure 2: GIS methodology for mapping sinuosity. a) Japan. b) Close-up view from Japan as indicated by the dotted white box. c) Close-up view from the Philippines as indicated by the dotted black box. d) Borneo. e) The Philippines. Tiles (a), (d), and (e) show the channel network colored by link sinuosity s = l/L over the gridded regionalized sinuosity χ. Regionalized sinuosity is gridded at 20 km using a contributing area 100 km in diameter (shown as black circles around each central χ pixel). The regionalized sinuosity χ for each central pixel (highlighted with a black square) is noted in the lower corner of each tile. Tiles (b) and (c) show the lengths L, l, and l∗ used for the calculation of link sinuosity s and regionalized sinuosity χ. Note that for each tile, only the portion of the channel network that contributes to the center pixel χ calculation are colored; the rest of the network, shown in thin black lines, are excluded because they are either outside the 100 km contributing area, or because they flow across areas of low relief, weak substrate, and/or SRTM data voids. 62 1 TC = 1.05 F = 1.27 sP = 1.21 sV = 0.14 sCV= 0.12 s = 1.17 s = 1.74 35°N 45°N 10 p( s) 130°E 140°E 0 10 TC = 0 F = 1.22 sP = 1.17 sV = 0.12 sCV= 0.11 s = 1.15 s = 1.63 D = 2.67 E = 0.080 (a) í 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Link sinuosity s 1.6 1 1 10 0° 10°N 5°N 10 15°N 10 TC = 1.53 F = 1.44 sP = 1.32 sV = 0.24 sCV= 0.18 s = 1.26 s = 2.22 110°E p( s) p( s) 120°E 0 10 0 10 D = 2.64 E = 0.069 D = 2.42 E = 0.135 (b) í 10 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Link sinuosity s 1.6 (c) í 10 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Link sinuosity s 1.6 Figure 3: Probability distributions of link sinuosity s values for the three sample χ pixels shown in Figure 2. A parametric Γ PDF is fit to each s distribution, with shape parameter α and scale parameter β values noted. Additional statistics of each contributing river network are also listed. 63 2.6 99th percentile sinuosity s99>í@ Mean sinuosity sM>í@ (a) 1.3 1.25 1.2 KW r2 = 0.92 1.15 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 Adjusted mean sinuosity C*>í@ Sinuosity coefficient of variation scv>í@ 1.2 1.3 1.4 Regionalized sinuosity C>í@ (c) 0.2 0.15 0.1 KW r2 = 0.65 1.35 (d) 1.3 1.25 1.2 1.15 KW r2 = 0.93 0.05 1.2 1.3 1.4 Regionalized sinuosity C>í@ 0.18 0.16 1.2 1.3 1.4 Regionalized sinuosity C>í@ (e) 6 0.14 A>í@ 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 (f ) 5 0.12 B>í@ KW r2 = 0.65 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 Regionalized sinuosity C>í@ 0.25 (b) 2.4 4 KW r2 = 0.17 3 KW r2 = 0.69 2 0.02 1.2 1.3 1.4 Regionalized sinuosity C>í@ 1.2 1.3 1.4 Regionalized sinuosity C>í@ Figure 4: Comparison of each measurement of χ to the statistics of the contributing network link sinuosities s, including the mean (a), the 99th percentile, the coefficient of variation (c), χ∗ (Equation 6) (d), and the shape and scale parameters α (e) and β (f) of the parametric Γ distributions (Equations 2 through 5). Scatter points are colored and shaped by region: Japan is shown as blue circles, Taiwan as purple triangles, the Philippines as green squares, Borneo as brown diamonds, and New Guinea as cyan triangles. Kendall’s Kτ and Pearson’s r2 are also noted. 64 65 sinuosity χ, (si × li∗ ) χ= i , i ∈ φ100 , li∗ (1) i which we computed across the islands of the western North Pacific using a 100 km diameter moving window and gridding at 20 km spacing. Values of χ range from 1, where most mountain rivers are straight, to 1.5, where many mountain rivers are sinuous. Three example χ cells are shown in Figure 2a, d, and e, along with circles showing the extent of the moving window and the contributing network segments. The value of χ is a function of the distribution of sinuosities s of the contributing N network links, shown for the three sample χ values in Figure 3 along with statistics of the ensemble of sinuosities. The p(s) distribution for each χ window is fit relatively well by a Γ distribution, p(s) = f (s|α, β) = 1 β α Γ(α) s sα−1 e β . (2) s, α, β > 0. The Γ shape parameter, α, is given by α= 3−a+ (a − 3)2 + 24a) , 12a (3) where a = ln( N N 1 1 si ) − ln(si ). N i=1 N i=1 (4) The Γ scale parameter, β, is the ratio of the mean sinuosity sμ and α, β= sμ . α (5) Across the western North Pacific, χ increases with Γ scale parameter β (Kendall’s rank correlation Kτ = 0.64), reflecting the dependence of both χ and β on the weight of the tail distribution. However, χ is also strongly correlated with several other statistics of the link sinuosity distribution, including the mean sμ , the 99th percentile s99 , and the coefficient 65 66 66 of variation scv . The best correlation (Kendall’s Kτ = 0.86) is obtained by applying a small correction to sμ , (Figure 4), χ∗ = sμ + scv sσ , (6) where the adjusted mean sinuosity χ∗ is approximately the same as χ for a given contributing area. In principle, any of these statistics is interchangeable with χ as a measure of regionalized sinuosity. However, we tend to prefer χ since it accounts for the relative lengths of the individual segments. We also replaced sinuosity s in Equation 1 with channel slope Sl and with down-valley slope SL to compute analogous regionalized measurements of slope. 5. Results Because Taiwan and Luzon are near the center of the western North Pacific cyclone basin, these islands tend to be hit more frequently by typhoons than the northern islands of Japan or the southern islands of the Philippines. Over the time period covered by the JTWC storm track archive, parts of Taiwan and Luzon were consistently hit by at least one or two storms every year while a few years passed between storms in parts of Japan. Much of Borneo and New Guinea is too close to the equator to ever see a tropical cyclone. South of the equator, storms also pass through western South Pacific and occasionally produce heavy rain in southeastern New Guinea. However, the southern cyclone basins are much less active than the western North Pacific. Sampling the tropical cyclone strike frequency map at the discharge and rain gage station locations reveals a strong correlation between strike frequency and statistics such as skewness, coefficient of variation, and relative flood intensity (99th percentile discharge 66 64 64 normalized by drainage area), but not between storm frequency and the means or standard deviations (Figure 5, Table 1). These are statistics that express the relative peak intensity of rainfall and discharge; their correlation with tropical cyclone frequency is therefore not surprising. For example, frequent storms in Taiwan produce both high means and high peaks of rainfall and discharge, while everwet but typhoon-free conditions in Borneo produce similarly high means with much lower peaks. Our qualitative Landsat survey and quantitative pattern of sinuosity χ indicate that mountain rivers are most sinuous in Taiwan and Luzon. Sinuosity decreases to the north and to the south, roughly matching the pattern of storm frequency (Figures 6 and 7). Kendall’s Kτ for tropical cyclone frequency and regionalized sinuosity χ for areas of the western North Pacific with at least one storm on record is Kτ = 0.5009, and Pearson’s r2 correlation coefficient reveals that more than 45% of the variance in regionalized sinuosity can be explained by the frequency of tropical cyclones (Figure 8). Sampling the regionalized sinuosity grid at the discharge and rain gauge station locations also reveals strong correlations with statistics such as Rcv and Q99 /Area which reflect the storm frequency (Figure 9). Also as expected, the mean Qμ and standard deviation Qσ of discharge and rainfall do not correlate as well with regionalized sinuosity. However, the other measures, such as runoff variability and the ratio of the 99th and 50th percentiles of discharge, Qskew and the 99th percentile discharge normalized by area do correlate well with sinuosity, each accounting for approximately 40% of the variability in sinuosity (Table 1). Assuming a constant down-valley slope SL between network nodes, sinuosity growth along a channel reach reduces the along-channel slope Sl . However, there tends to be no relationship between the slope and sinuosity nearby channel segments, such as an ensemble 67 Table 1: Kendall’s Kτ and Pearson’s r correlation coefficients independent TC [y −1 ] TC [y −1 ] TC [y −1 ] TC [y −1 ] TC [y −1 ] TC [y −1 ] TC [y −1 ] TC [y −1 ] TC [y −1 ] TC [y −1 ] TC [y −1 ] TC [y −1 ] TC [y −1 ] TC [y −1 ] Qcv [-] TC [y −1 ] Rμ [mm mo−1 ] Rσ [mm mo−1 ] Rcv [-] Qμ [m3 s−1 ] Qμ /A [m s−1 ] Qσ [m3 s−1 ] Qσ /A [m s−1 ] Qcv [-] Qskew [-] Q99 [m3 s−1 ] Q99 /Q50 [-] Q99 /A [m s−1 ] (Q299 /g)1/5 [m] (Q299 /g)1/5 /A1/2 [-] (Q299 /g)2/5 /A [-] dependent Rμ [mm mo−1 ] Rσ [mm mo−1 ] Rcv [-] Qμ [m3 s−1 ] Qμ /A [m s−1 ] Qσ [m3 s−1 ] Qσ /A [m s−1 ] Qcv [-] Q99 [m3 s−1 ] Q99 /A [m s−1 ] Qskew [-] Q99 /Q50 [-] (Q299 /g)1/5 [m] (Q299 /g)2/5 /A [-] Qskew [-] χ [-] χ [-] χ [-] χ [-] χ [-] χ [-] χ [-] χ [-] χ [-] χ [-] χ [-] χ [-] χ [-] χ [-] χ [-] χ [-] Kτ -0.103 0.206 0.510 -0.095 0.155 0.201 0.523 0.557 0.169 0.503 0.615 0.503 0.169 0.480 0.718 0.5009 -0.169 0.144 0.444 -0.038 0.206 0.238 0.508 0.442 0.496 0.232 0.411 0.477 0.232 0.440 0.440 68 PKτ 8.28E-02 5.47E-04 1.04E-17 4.13E-01 1.78E-01 8.02E-02 4.89E-06 1.11E-06 1.41E-01 1.12E-05 7.66E-08 1.12E-05 1.41E-01 2.77E-05 9.06E-13 6.4E-83 1.20E-03 5.65E-03 1.49E-17 7.45E-01 7.00E-02 3.63E-02 2.75E-06 5.71E-05 4.86E-06 4.11E-02 2.01E-04 1.26E-05 4.11E-02 6.43E-05 6.43E-05 r -0.025 0.563 0.738 -0.389 0.312 0.105 0.671 0.652 0.080 0.643 0.745 0.509 0.145 0.610 0.915 0.6731 -0.123 0.412 0.629 -0.114 0.292 0.265 0.676 0.612 0.633 0.248 0.516 0.649 0.309 0.619 0.635 Pr 7.50E-01 1.52E-15 2.63E-30 1.57E-02 5.64E-02 5.30E-01 4.51E-01 9.04E-06 6.32E-01 1.34E-05 8.36E-08 1.11E-03 3.85E-01 4.80E-05 9.61E-16 7.3E-90 1.11E-01 2.51E-08 5.30E-20 4.95E-01 7.58E-02 1.07E-01 3.25E-06 4.52E-05 2.03E-05 1.34E-01 9.01E-04 1.07E-05 5.91E-02 3.44E-05 1.88E-05 r2 0.001 0.317 0.544 0.152 0.097 0.011 0.451 0.426 0.006 0.414 0.554 0.259 0.021 0.372 0.837 0.453 0.015 0.170 0.396 0.013 0.085 0.070 0.456 0.374 0.400 0.061 0.267 0.421 0.095 0.383 0.403 í í x 10 400 8 300 200 Q99/A [m sí] 10 QM/A [m sí] RM [mm moí] x 10 8 6 4 100 6 4 2 2 0 0.5 1 0 1.5 0.5 1 0 1.5 0.5 1 1.5 í í x Cyclones 10 per year [yrí] Cyclones per year [yrí] 10 xCyclones 10 per year [yrí] 300 200 100 0 0.5 1 15 (Q299/g)2/5/A >í@ QS/A [m sí] RS [mm moí] 400 10 5 6 4 2 0 1.5 0.5 1 0 1.5 0.5 1 1.5 í 15 Cyclones per year [yr ] Cyclones per year [yrí] í 1.5 Cyclones per year [yr ] 8 3 1 Qskew >í@ Qcv >í@ Rcv >í@ 2.5 2 1.5 10 5 1 0.5 0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 TCs perper year [y-1][yrí] Cyclones year 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 í Cyclones TCs perper yearyear [y-1] [yr ] 0 0.5 1 1.5 TCs per year [y-1[yr ] í] Cyclones per year Figure 5: Tropical cyclone strikes v. rain R and river Q gauge station statistics. Scatter points are colored and shaped by region consistent with Figure 4. There is no relationship between strike frequency and the means and standard deviations of rainfall and discharge, but there is a moderately strong positive correltation between storm frequency and the coefficients of variation of rainfall and discharge, and between storm frequency and the ratio of the 99 th and 50th discharge percentiles. 69 110°E 120°E 130°E 140°E 150°E ( ! ( ! 40°N E 0 ( ! River gauges Rain gauges 5 0.2 TC frequency [y-1] E Japan 2 160°E 40°N 100°E ( ! ( ! E E ! ( ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ! ( ( ! ( ! (! ! ( ! ( E E !( 30°N ( ! ( !! ( ( ! E ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! ( ! 25 1. 5 1. Taiwan 20°N E!( E!( E ( ! ( ! E E !(!(E E!( E ( ! 30°N E 1 Regionalized Sinuosity Ȥ [-] 1.5 0.5 Philippines E E !( E E EE!( E E E E E 10°N 1.7 2 5 10°N 20°N E E 1.5 1 0.75 E E!( 0.5 E EE E EE E E E E 0° 0 ( ! 0° ( ! Borneo New Guinea E 10°S 0 EE E EE E EE EEEE EEEEE E EE E EE EEE EE EE E EEE E EE EE EE EEE E E E EE E E E EE E E E E EE E E EE EEE E E E E EE E E E E E 10°S EE 0.25 0.25 0.5 110°E 120°E 130°E 140°E 150°E Figure 6: Regionalized sinuosity of the island mountains of the western North Pacific cyclone basin displayed in a Lambert Azimuthal equal area projection centered over Taiwan, at 23 ◦ N, 121 ◦ E. Rain- and river-gauge station locations are marked by crosses and circles. Blue contours show the 58-year tropical cyclone (TC) frequency estimated from the JTWC best track dataset north of the equator. TC frequency is the average number of TC storm eyes that passed within 100 km each year between 1945 and 2002. 70 Figure 7: Variation of regionalized sinuosity χ (top) and tropical cyclone strike frequency (bottom) with latitute for the islands of the western North Pacific. Mapped values are grouped per degree of latitude and plotted as the mean (black line) with one-σ error bounds (gray lines). 71 Regionalized sinuosity χ [−] 1.45 1.4 1.35 1.3 1.25 1.2 1.15 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Tropical cyclone strike frequency [yr−1] Figure 8: Tropical cyclone strike frequency v. regionalized sinuosity χ for the islands of the western North Pacific. Kendall’s Kτ for all areas within the cyclone basin (at least one storm made landfall during the 58-year period of record), is 0.5009 (PKτ = 6.4e-83), and Pearson’s r is 0.6731 (Pr = 7.2e-90). 72 1.3 1.25 1.2 200 300 1.25 1.2 400 2 RM [mm moí@ Sinuosity C>í@ Sinuosity C>í@ 1.25 1.2 100 200 300 1.2 5 10 1 Rcv >í@ 1.3 1.25 1.2 15 2 í Sinuosity C>í@ 0.5 1.5 4 6 8 Q99/A >PV@ x 10í 1.35 QS/A [m sí@ x 10 4 6 8 10 (( Q299/g)2/5)/A >í@ x 10 í 1.35 1.35 1.2 1.2 2 1.25 400 1.35 1.25 1.25 10 1.3 RS [mm mo @ 1.3 1.3 í í Sinuosity C>í@ 8 1.35 1.3 1.15 6 QM/A [m sí@ x 10 1.35 1.15 4 Regionalized Sinuosity C>í@ 100 1.3 Sinuosity C>í@ 1.15 1.35 Sinuosity C>í@ Sinuosity C>í@ Sinuosity C>í@ 1.35 1.35 1.3 1.25 1.2 1 2 Qcv >í@ 3 1.3 1.25 1.2 0 5 10 Qskew >í@ Figure 9: Scatterplots of regionalized sinuosity χ against statistics of rainfall and discharge. 73 15 that lies within a 100 km χ viewing window (Figure 10a, b, and c), and across the western North Pacific, our measure of regionalized slope has only a very weak inverse relationship with regionalized sinuosity (Figure 10d, e, and f). 6. Discussion 6.1. Discharge statistics along dammed rivers Damming upstream from a river gauge affects the distribution of discharges downstream to a degree that depends on factors such as drainage area at the dam location, reservoir capacity, and dam usage (e.g. hydropower, flood mitigation, irrigation, recreation). The extent and usage of damming varies considerably across our study areas and is difficult to quantify since time series data on reservoir inflow and outflow are not readily available. It is a particular problem in Japan, where dams regulate flow through thousands of rivers. We argue that our use of daily, rather than hourly statistics of discharge accounts for much of the effect that dams have on river flow characteristics, such that the statistics we report here are not significantly different than they would be with no damming in any of our selected catchments. This is because the strongest effect of a dam on discharge is likely to occur during the extreme floods. For our study area, these flows are driven by storms that are hours to days in duration. The effect of dams on these extreme discharges is likely to filter the peak inflow and release it at a reduced discharge over a longer period of time; we hypothesize that this is analogous to averaging instantaneous hourly measurements of discharge over 24 hour periods. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Japan publishes some annual statistics for many of its dams, including the yearly maximum instantaneous inflow and outflow discharges; the ratio of these should correspond to the maximum effect of dams 74 74 on downstream discharges. As a test we have compared the yearly inflow and outflow statistics from the Midori River dam in Kyushu, Japan (359 km2 ) to hourly and daily discharge data from undammed Zhuokou River in southwestern Taiwan (375 km2 ) (Figure 11). For these similarly sized catchments with similar tropical storm frequencies, the effect of the Midori River dam on instantaneous discharge is similar to the effect of taking daily averages on the Zhuokou. Therefore, we infer that the daily mean discharge timeseries that we have used in this study are likely to be largely unaffected by upstream damming. However, we do so cautiously, since without inflow and outflow timeseries for all of the reservoirs within the watershed of each of our selected river gauges, we cannot know for sure how different our statistics would be under entirely natural flow conditions. 6.2. Flood discharge and channel mobility Because it is a measure of an ensemble of channel segments, regionalized sinuosity χ is essentially an indication of the likelihood that any given incising channel in that area meanders. This likelihood increases with storm frequency through the effect of storms, particularly tropical cyclones in our study area, on peak rainfall and discharge intensity. If the relationship between tropical storm driven floods and sinuosity is causal, then there must be enhanced lateral cutting within the channels during peak discharges. Hartshorn et al. [2002] found along the Liwu River in northeastern Taiwan that horizontal erosion was preferentially accomplished during a peak discharge event. Turowski et al. [2008] explained that in perfectly parabolic channels, across-channel shear stress profiles are depth-dependent; in shallow flows the maximum shear stress is found at the center of the channel, but as flows deepen, two shear stress maxima diverge from the center towards the banks. However, they found that the complicated geometries and width-depth ratios 75 75 5HJLRQDOL]HGFKDQQHOVORSH>í@ 45°N (a) 35°N Channel slope Sl,i>í@ 0.2 0.15 0.1 130°E 140°E 0.05 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 1.2 1.4 1.6 Sinuosity si>í@ 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.4 Regionalized sinuosity C>í@ 1.45 0.2 0° (b) Regionalized sinuosity C>í@ 5°N 1 Channel slope Sl,i>í@ (d) 0.08 0.15 110°E 0.1 0.05 (e) 1.4 1.35 1.3 1.25 1.2 1.15 0 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 Sinuosity si>í@ 1.8 20 40 60 80 100 ,QYHUVHUHJLRQDOL]HGFKDQQHOVORSH>í@ 5HJLRQDOL]HGFKDQQHOVORSH>í@ (c) 10°N Channel slope Sl,i>í@ 0.25 15°N 0.3 0.2 0.15 120°E 0.1 0.05 0.08 (f ) 1:1 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 1 1.5 2 Sinuosity si>í@ 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 5HJLRQDOL]HGGRZQíYDOOH\VORSH>í@ 2.5 Figure 10: a, b and c) Slope Sl versus sinuosity s for channel segments within the 100 km diameter χ viewing windows shown in Figure 2. (d): Regionalized sinuosity χ versus regionalized channel slope across the western North Pacific islands. e) Inverse regionalized channel slope versus regionalized sinuosity χ across the western North Pacific islands. f) Regionalized down-valley slope versus regionalized channel slope across the western North Pacific islands. The highlighted circle (Japan), triangle (Borneo), and square (Philippines) in (d) and (f) represent the sample locations shown in (a), (b) and (c). Scatter colors and shapes in (d), (e) and (f) are consistent with Figure 4. 76 3 -1 Annual max outflow Q (Midori) [m s ] Daily mean Q (Zhuokou) [m3 s-1] 3500 Zhuokou River 3000 Midori River Dam y=0.8406x 2500 y=0.7912x 1:1 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1:01 0 1000 2000 3000 3 -1 Max Hourly Q (Zhuokou) [m s ] 3 -1 Annual max inflow Q (Midori) [m s ] Figure 11: A comparison to test the effect of damming on daily discharge statistics showing yearly maxima of instantaneous inflow versus outflow discharge at the Midori River Dam in Japan (black) compared to the daily maximum versus mean of hourly discharge measured on the undammed Zhuokou River in Taiwan (grey). These rivers have similar drainage areas and similar mean annual discharge. The close correspondence of points suggests that dams affect natural flow variability in a way that is similar to or less than the smoothing effect of taking daily averages of hourly instantaneous flow measurements. 77 of real rivers like the Liwu make it exceedingly unlikely for shear stress distributions to mimic the model behavior. They inferred that flow depth variation alone is insufficient to explain trends in lateral cutting. Stark et al. [2007], Stark and Barbour [2007a], and Stark and Barbour [2007b], however, examined the depth-dependence of horizontal erosion rates with a dynamic channel model designed to handle flow variability Qcv by considering two discharge values that are each active for some percentage of time. They found that high stage widening rates increase with Qcv , but mid-stage widening rates do not, implying that a positive relationship between Qcv and horizontal cutting must largely be an effect of the high-stage flows. They also found that channel base width, mean flow width, and mean flow width-depth ratio, and an inverse meander timescale 1/T that derives from meander bend theory Ikeda et al. [1981]; Johannesson and Parker [1989]; Edwards and Smith [2002] are all increasing functions of Qcv , indicating that lateral cutting should increase with discharge variability. Though the inverse timescale or meander rate 1/T may always be positively correlated with discharge variability, the relationship with sinuosity may always be changing, since sinuosity along a reach is reset at a cutoff. Other negative feedbacks associated with slope reduction with sinuosity growth and sediment buffering with increasing valley relief may reduce the meander rate to slow the effect of relative flood intensity on lateral cutting Stark et al. [2008]. 6.3. Sediment and channel mobility Stark et al. [2007]; Stark and Barbour [2007a, b]’s results provide a sufficient explanation for how relative flood intensity alone can drive lateral cutting, but Turowski et al. [2008] proposed that the sediment at the channel bed is more important. Erosion along 78 78 a river will increase with sediment only until there is enough sediment to protect the channel bottom from further erosion; the implication for a meandering river is that banks will remain exposed to the moving water and erosive impacts of the suspended load even while the bed is covered, since channel banks are too steep to support a sediment cover [Moore, 1926; Turowski, 2006; Turowski et al., 2008]. Sediment load tends to increase with discharge in a typhoon-dominated catchment since the storms that drive the deepest flows also trigger landslides by boosting pore fluid pressures and reducing shear resistance in the valley walls, and by oversteepening the valley walls through channel erosion. The most erosive flows should therefore occur while the bed is covered, leaving the banks to preferentially feel the effect of these floods; horizontal erosion should be fastest and horizontal to vertical erosion rate ratios should be greatest along rivers that most frequently channel extreme discharges. Storm-triggered landslides are most likely to occur at the outer bends of a meandering channel where flow impinges on the bank and where slopes tend to be steepest. Assuming that subsequent flows will erode and/or move the sediment that is produced, these landslides effectively pull the channel centerline outward toward the failed slope, increasing sinuosity. However, if subsequent flows are unable to transport the new sediment, then landslides work against sinuosity growth by providing a buffer of sediment to protect the channel bank from further erosion. 6.4. Time scales of channel evolution and climate change Sinuosity and typhoon climatology can both evolve over a range of timescales. Correlations between measures of storminess and measures of channel planform only suggest a causal relationship if these timescales match. 79 79 We can estimate the timescale of sinuosity development. For example, the Hsiukuluan River drains the Central Mountains and flows north through Taiwan’s Longitudinal Valley before making a sharp turn to cross the highly erodible flysch and turbidite sediments and andesitic volcanic rocks of the Coastal Range [e.g. Yu and Kuo, 2001; Shyu et al., 2006]. The valley’s position across the range appears to be antecedent to the uplift of the coastal mountains but the river is extremely sinuous and along its bends are several preserved slip-off slopes and cutoff meander loops that indicate the evolution of channel’s shape throughout orogenesis. Concerned primarily with the Coastal Range uplift, Shyu et al. [2006] obtained 14C ages across several sip-off slopes of the Hsiukuluan River and measured Holocene downcutting rates ranging from 11.2 to 27.3 mm y−1 . The geometry of the asymmetric valley indicates a ratio of horizontal to vertical cutting of approximately 10 to 1, from which we can infer that the km-scale loops of the Hsiukuluan River have taken on the order of 10,000 years to grow. At a more typical rate of incision, such as 2 mm y−1 , and a slower ratio of horizontal to vertical erosion of 1, kilometer-scale loops would take 500,000 to form. In 500,000 years, climate can go through several cycles of warming and cooling, and the frequency and intensity of tropical storms may vary dramatically. We have little information about how storm tracks, intensities, and frequencies change during periods of warming and cooling, or about how these changes affect the tropical cyclone pattern across the western North Pacific; for example, we do not know if entire cyclone basin contracts and expands, or if it migrates north and south. Nor do we know how changes to the cyclone basin would affect river discharge distributions. However, the correlation between a quantitative measurement of landforms and modern day climatology 80 80 is remarkable, and it may offer new clues, since it implies that storm paths and intensities have not changed much over the past hundreds of thousands of years, or if they have, then the long-term average pattern may be similar to what we observe today. It may even be possible to extract information about changes in storm frequency from the landscape. For example, the shapes of slip-off slopes along an individual channel reflect the relative rates of horizontal and vertical erosion. As long as the slip-off slope remains gravitationally stable, it will record the history of these relative rates. Therefore, a convex slip-off slope could result from horizontal erosion that has decreased at a constant rate of bed cutting, and could therefore signify a reduction in storm frequency. Such inferences about climatology must be made with caution and with additional information about incision rates and lithology, since the same morphology could also result from incision that has increased at a constant rate of bank cutting, or from differences in erodibility through the stratigraphic section. 6.5. Lithologic control of sinuosity development Jefferson [1897] argued that the preservation of sinuosity during incision requires a strong bedrock. In weaker bedrock, sinuosity will tend to be erased by the erosion of the overlapping inter-meander spurs; that is, lateral erosion is more efficient in weaker bedrock, exactly what we observed in our qualitative survey of optical remote sensing imagery. The effect of lithology on sinuosity development is displayed clearly in Shikoku, Japan, where the Median Tectonic Line (MTL) is a right-lateral strike slip fault that accommodates some of the oblique convergence between the Eurasian and Philippine Sea Plates at the Nankai Trough [Tabei et al., 2002]. South of the MTL are recently exhumed weak 81 81 trench sediments which we excluded from our regional analysis. To the north are older, harder rocks of a metamorphic belt [Steinshouer et al., 1997; Scholz , 2002], which we included in our analysis. The MTL also marks a distinct change in river morphology. Low-sinuosity rivers incise into the stronger metamorphic belt, and high-sinuosity rivers cut into the weaker trench sediments (Figure 12). χ values are correspondingly low to the north and high to the south of the MTL (Figure 12). Because there is no significant difference in the storm frequency across the fault, we assume that the sharp change in sinuosity, which likely reflects a difference in lateral cutting rates, is the result of the difference in erodibility across the fault. The effect of lithology on sinuosity development implies that erodibility may be mappable directly from river network morphology, but only in areas with comparable climates. At a spatial scale over which climatology is relatively constant, regionalized sinuosity χ values should be correlated to lithologic weakness, as they are in the Shikoku example. While it is extremely unlikely that lithology alone could cause the variation in sinuosity that we see across the western North Pacific islands (there is no evidence of a regional variation in erodibility that peaks in Taiwan and Luzon and decreases to the north and south), lithologic variation does occur locally everywhere; if our inference is correct that χ is an increasing function of storm frequency, then a variation of lateral cutting with lithology should be responsible for much of the scatter we see in Figure 8. 7. Conclusions Quantification of the regional abundance of incised meanders is possible through standard flow-routing techniques applied to digital topography along with an assessment of the sinuosity of channel network links within some specified area; the mean, the coeffi- 82 82 33°30'N 132°45'E 133°E MB L 33°15'N MT TS 1 Regionalized Sinuosity F[-] 1.5 0 10 20km Figure 12: Regionalized sinuosity across the Median Tectonic Line (MTL) in Shikoku, Japan. To highlight the local effect of lithology on sinuosity, here χ was computed separately for the areas north and south of the MTL. The mildly sinuous rivers north of the MTL cut into stronger Paleozoic/Mesozoic, Jurassic, and Silurian/Devonian rocks of a metamorphic belt (MB) which were included in the analyses above. The tightly meandering rivers south of the MTL cut into weak Cretaceous accretionary wedge trench sediments (TS) which were excluded from the analyses in an attempt to minimize lithologic variability across the study areas. Gray indicates low relief areas also excluded. 83 cient of variation, and the shape parameter of a Γ function fit to the distribution of link sinuosities all could serve as a quantitative measure of regionalized sinuosity. However, an equation such as Equation 1 is preferable since it weighs the contribution of each network segment by its length. A pattern in the regionalized sinuosity of mountain rivers across the islands of the western North Pacific matches the patterns of tropical cyclones, rainfall variability, and relative flood intensity: all peak in Luzon and Taiwan, and decrease to the north along the axis of Japan, and to the south along the Philippines and into Borneo and New Guinea. This relationship is reconcilable with model and empirical results that find faster horizontal erosion during extreme floods. However, sinuosity cannot grow indefinitely, because eventually adjacent bends intersect and reaches straighten. If lateral erosion rates increase as a function of relative flood intensity and channel curvature, sinuosity will grow increasingly fast until there is a cutoff, when sinuosity and lateral erosion rates will step backwards, before beginning to increase again. In the simplest model, given enough time, all rivers should eventually meander with periodic loop cutoffs. This should contribute to relatively stable, high values of sinuosity everywhere. This implies that the relationship we find between sinuosity and storminess across the western North Pacific may indicate a state of transience; that is, the rivers of Borneo, New Guinea, and Northern Japan are growing sinuosity slowly under relatively flood-free flow conditions, and simply have not had enough time to fully meander yet. Meanwhile, rapid bank erosion along the rivers of Taiwan and Luzon, has caused these areas to evolve faster towards a state of universal meandering along all channels. 84 84 However, an alternative explanation is that negative feedbacks associated with horizontal and vertical erosion work against sinuosity growth and eventually shut down lateral cutting, such that sinuosity evolves to a stable form. In this case, stronger climatological forcing in Taiwan and Luzon has allowed rivers in these islands to develop very sinuous planforms quickly, before lateral erosion has ceased. Rivers are straighter in Japan and Borneo, where weaker forcing promotes planform evolution that has been too slow to develop meanders before shutting down. Whether the planforms of these rivers are in a state of transience or have reached stability is a question that remains to be answered, but negative feedbacks are very likely to be at work on incising rivers. For example, meander growth reduces channel slopes which should reduce lateral cutting, and incision lengthens hillslopes which should lead to greater wall buffering. In either case, the correlations of regionalized sinuosity of mountain rivers and indicators of storminess (tropical cyclone frequency, rainfall variability, relative flood intensity) suggest that incising mountain rivers have planforms that adjust in response to climatology. 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Stark, Chingweei Lin, Hongey Chen, Ming-Jame Horng, Chin-Pin Ko, Te-Cheng Yi, Tsai-Tsung Tsai, Wei-Shu Chang, Shin-Ping Lee, and Chung Huang. 92 Abstract. The magnitude-frequency distribution of boundary shear stress frames erosion rates in bedrock rivers, but empirical constraints are rare, particularly for extreme floods. Here we present measurements of mean stress τb and its frequency distribution along a fast-eroding river in Taiwan. We construct rating functions of discharge and hydraulic geometry from stage time-series, topographic surveys, and high-resolution satellite images and find the derived PDF of τb has a steep power-law tail. Recorded floods include two 50-year, 3000 m3 s−1 events driving τb ≥ 300 Pa, but largely comprise semiannual events generating τb ≈ 100-200 Pa, all capable of driving incision. Comparable-size channels in the north-eastern US eroding 40 times slower experience 50-year floods with stresses in the latter range. Therefore, unless incision rates scale exponentially with maximum flood shear, the extreme incision rates in Taiwan probably originate in the exceptional frequency of their erosive floods. We deduce that frequency rather than magnitude primarily sets the pace of bedrock channel erosion. 93 93 1. Introduction Few datasets exist that relate flows in mixed bedrock-alluvial channels to the velocities and boundary shear stresses that determine their erosion and deposition [Molnar et al., 2006]. Rarer still are data on the longitudinal variations in flow geometry at different discharges, which limits our ability to understand the degree, nature, and consequences of the spatiotemporal complexity of shear stresses along bedrock channels and to constrain models of channel evolution [Stark , 2006; Turowski et al., 2008; Wobus et al., 2006]. Bedrock rivers lack the kind of empirical constraints on hydraulic geometry available for alluvial rivers [Leopold and Maddock , 1953]. The deployment of stage recorders in large numbers along mountain rivers is not a practical means for monitoring their along-stream hydraulic geometry. The advent of high-resolution satellite imagery offers a solution, at least for mapping the planform flow geometry over space and time. To date, remote-sensing studies have focused on very large lowland rivers with broad floodplains [e.g. Smith, 1997; Bjerklie et al., 2003; Brakenridge et al., 2005], using satellite images to monitor river stage [Koblinsky et al., 1993; Birkett, 1998; Birkett et al., 2002], changes in river stage [Alsdorf et al., 2000, 2001], flood inundation [Sippel et al., 1994, 1998; Townsend , 2001], and flow widths averaged over reaches [Smith et al., 1995] or at transects [Xu et al., 2004; Zhang et al., 2004]. Although satellite assessments of hydraulic geometry can be combined with ground-survey data to estimate channel boundary shear stresses, none of the prior studies have taken this step, nor have their methods been tested in narrow, O(100 m) wide river channels. Addressing these issues is the main goal of our paper. 94 94 The application of remote gauging to small mountain rivers presents a very different challenge to the assessment of large lowland rivers. Wetted channels 10-100 m wide require very high resolution, 1 m-5 m imagery, eliminating the option at present of stage measurement using SAR data; mountain catchments are particularly prone to cloud cover that reduces the number of usable images, especially during the important storm-stage flows; high topographic relief necessitates and complicates accurate orthorectification for image-series co-registration, requiring 10 m resolution or better DEM data and very good ground control; ground validation of flow geometries is logistically and technically more difficult; significant changes in alluvial bed geometry occur frequently, frustrating widthbased rating; and flows are typically shallow, rough, and sinuous, which complicates flow modeling. Remote gauging can nevertheless be performed in mountain rivers given (1) very high resolution, multitemporal satellite imagery, (2) good ground control for image coregistration, and (3) a well-located river stage recorder providing a long time-series of discharge estimates. These criteria are met in many mountain catchments in Taiwan, a particularly compelling location for the spatiotemporal assessment of channel flows and boundary shear stresses because of its exceptional rates of bedrock channel incision and landscape evolution [Li , 1976; Hartshorn et al., 2002; Dadson et al., 2003; Turowski et al., 2008]. The data presented here on hydraulic geometry in Taiwanese rivers will be a welcome resource in the study of bedrock channel dynamics. We focus on the Zhuókŏuxı̄ catchment, which is located on the south-western flank of the Central Mountain Range (Fig. 1a) at a steep range front created by the oblique-thrust 95 95 WANS23 WANS21 WANS24 WANS20 SHTO20 WANS25 WANS28 WANS27 WANS29 WANS26 LUMS02 (a) XINS03 0.8 Km (b) 200 SHTO20 WANS28 WANS29 WANS27 WANS23 LUMS02 100 XINS03 150 DAJN20 Elevation [m] 250 0.4 22°N DAJN20 0 122°E 24°N 120°E Slope [%] 1.5 (c) 1 0.5 0 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Downstream Distance [km] 0 Figure 1: (a) Shaded relief image of the Màolı́n Valley generated from a 5 m DEM showing the locations of surveyed channel cross-sections. (b) Longitudinal channel topographic profile. (c) Smoothed downstream gradient. 96 96 Cháozhōu (Chauchou) fault. The Zhuókŏuxı̄ (often rendered as the Jhuokou or Jukou Shi, meaning the “Muddy Mouth River”) drains a 375 km2 catchment along the Màolı́n Valley; our study reach extends 14 km upstream from its mouth at Dàjı̄n close to the confluence with the Gāopı́ng (Kaoping) River. This steep (Fig. 1c), mixed bedrock-alluvial river cuts rapidly [Dadson et al., 2003] through an intermittent veneer of mostly quartzite cobbles, boulders, and argillaceous sand, into argillite bedrock. Peak flows occur during the onset of the Méiyŭ in spring, and during typhoons in the summer and autumn, and can exceed 3000 m3 s−1 ; flood discharge usually lasts for no more than a few days before dropping to typical low stages flows around ∼30 m3 s−1 . In winter, peak flows rarely exceed 100 m3 s−1 . 2. Mapping of mean boundary shear stress We combine field and remote-sensing measurements along the Zhuókŏuxı̄ with a simple theoretical analysis to estimate the mean boundary shear stress τb for a range of discharges. For reasonably straight, constant-gradient reaches, and uniform steady flow, boundary shear stress τb is τb = ρg A S = ρgRS P (1) where R is the hydraulic radius or ratio of cross-sectional area A to wetted perimeter P , ρ is water density, g is gravitational acceleration, S is the channel bed slope. Mean flow speed is the discharge per unit cross-sectional area A, U = Q/A . (2) Estimation of τb and U at a transect therefore requires measurement of the channel slope and the flow cross-section. The latter is obtained by combining the transect topographic profile with satellite observations of flow width at each discharge. 97 97 Channel topography We surveyed topographic profiles of each channel transect and obtained the longitudinal profile of the river by projecting DGPS surveys of the flow channel edges at low stage onto the channel centerline. To reduce error, we used a 300 m median filter along the longitudinal profile and computed longitudinal gradient from the best linear fit of the filtered profile within each 300 m window (Fig. 1b,c). While there is some variation in slope along the Zhuókŏuxı̄ channel below this scale, there are no significant knickpoints present and the gradient varies on a O(1 km) length scale between 0.5% and 1%. Discharge time series The Water Resources Agency of Taiwan has maintained an automatic stage recorder on the Zhuókŏuxı̄ since 1970, first at LUMS02 (1970–1983), then at DAJN20 (1989– 2005), and now at XINS03 (2006–present) (Figs. 1 and 2). Stage is measured hourly and yields the daily statistics: mean Qμ = 39.5 m3 s−1 , standard deviation Qσ = 130 m3 s−1 , coefficient of variation Qcv = 3.31, 99th percentile Q99 = 567 m3 s−1 , and peak Qmax > 3000 m3 s−1 . For our rating study, we used the 10 am measurement for each F2 image date (Table 1). The empirical PDFs for hourly and daily discharge derived from records spanning 20042006 are indistinguishable (Fig. 2a); the longer daily discharge record spanning 1970-2006 has a PDF with a slightly lighter tail. All the empirical PDFs indicate a power-law decay in the tail p(Q) ∼ Q−α−1 ∼ Q−2 , i.e., a Pareto exponent of α ≈ 1, which is indicative of frequent extreme events [Turcotte and Green, 1993; Stark and Hovius, 2001; Lague et al., 2005] relative to exponentially decaying PDFs. 98 98 Table 1: FORMOSAT-2 image set Date∗ Q† Q% ‡ Cloud cover Use 2006/3/17 5 34 10% low-stage, reference 2006/9/28 41 82 0% mean-stage 2006/7/29 126 93.9 0% mid-stage 2006/7/11 200 96.3 0% mid-stage 2005/8/07 801 99.5 30% high-stage 2005/7/10 14 n/a 0% pre-Hăitáng§ 2005/8/01 1 n/a 0% post-Hăitáng§ 2003/12/30∗∗ 16 n/a 0% pre-Mı̆ndūlı̀§ ∗ Images acquired between 9:55 am and 10:05 am local time. Hourly discharge in m3 s−1 was measured at Dàjı̄n in 2005 and at Xı̄nnóng in 2006. Reported here is the discharge measured at 10 am, scaled by relative drainage area to the Dàjı̄n gauge. ‡ Q percentile. § Discharge during Hăitáng reached 2894 m3 s−1 on 2005/07/20. The maximum discharge on record for this catchment, 3163 m3 s−1 occurred one year earlier, during Typhoon Mı̆ndūlı̀. ∗∗ SPOT-5 image. † 99 99 í 10 (a) -D – 1 § -2 Probability density p(Q) [mí s] í 10 í 10 í 10 í 10 Qhí í 10 Qdí Qdí í 10 1 2 10 3 10 4 10 10 í [m33 sí ] Q [m s ] Q 2 Probability density p(Tb) [Paí] Tb [Pa] 10 (b) 300 (a) 10 6 200 4 100 2 0 0 í 10 (c) (b) -J – 1 § -4 í 10 í 10 Tb distribution í 10 power law decay exponential decay 30 Tb exceedance [days/yr] 4 10 U [m sí] 0 100 Tb [Pa] 300 300 (d) (c) 100 30 10 3 1 0.1 Q99 50 100 150 Tb [Pa] 200 250 Figure 2: Hydraulic properties at WANS28: (a) PDFs of hourly (Qh ) and daily average (Qd ) discharge on the Zhuókŏu River from the WRA archive along with schematic power law tangent to the tail portion of the distribution (gray dashed line). (b) Observations and model regressions of shear stress τb ∼ Q1/3 (black circles) and flow speed U ∼ Q2/5 (gray squares) versus discharge. (c) Distribution p(τb ) with power law and exponential model regressions. (d) Complementary cumulative distribution of τb exceedance. 100 100 Image processing and hydraulic geometry estimation To estimate hydraulic geometry at each transect and discharge, we mapped flow width in a series of FORMOSAT-2 (F2) satellite images and supplemented this with field mapping of extreme flood width and depth along the channel. Since 2004, the F2 VNIR sensor has collected 2 m-resolution panchromatic images and 8 m-resolution multispectral images at approximately 10 am daily over Taiwan with a swath width of 24 km. The return period for any given region of interest is irregular because of scheduling priorities; image acquisition is often off-nadir, affecting both the field of view and the amount of image distortion. Substantial cloud cover is common, especially during the high-magnitude flood events that most alter the channel, which further reduces the availability of the most useful imagery. Nevertheless, many near cloud-free images of the Zhuókŏuxı̄ with good satellite geometry are available, most of which are acquired during the dry season when the river is at low stage. On a few rare passes, F2 has captured the river at high stage, providing a set of images that span much of the range of recorded discharge (Table 1). The accuracy of wetted channel width measurements depends on the precise coregistration of the image series, which we accomplished in two steps. We first orthorectified the selected images to a 5m DEM using ground control points collected in the field and from orthophotographs. We then warped each image to the 2006/03/17 low-stage reference image, which was acquired at our request during fieldwork. By deploying a set of satellite-visible, precisely located targets on the river bed during the F2 overpass, we achieved the best possible ground control for this image. 101 101 We mapped the wetted channel in the each F2 image using variety of processing techniques. The clarity of the wetted edge varied with shadows, haze, illumination angle, channel orientation, and bed material: in some cases, the edge was sharply defined in the panchromatic image; in others, it was clearer in the pan-sharpened multispectral image; in yet other cases, it was most clear after applying a Sobel edge filter to the panchromatic image. Although the F2 satellite did not image the Zhuókŏuxı̄ during the two most extreme flood events on record, we were able to map their approximate hydraulic geometry by examining images from before and after the floods. Discharge reached 3163 m3 s−1 on 2004/07/04 during Typhoon Mı̆ndūlı̀ (Mindulle), the highest ever recorded on the Zhuókŏu River. A year later, discharge during Typhoon Hăitáng reached 2894 m3 s−1 on 2005/07/20. Together, these floods left a clear high water mark along much of the channel which we mapped through a comparison of a SPOT-5 image acquired before Mı̆ndūlı̀ and F2 images acquired after each storm (Table 1). The mapping was validated at each transect with observations of the high water mark measured in the field. Mapping results At each transect of the channel we find nonlinear relationships between R, τb , U and Q which we approximate with power-law scaling functions. Since slope is fixed at each transect, τb ∼ R (Equation 1). However, since channel geometry and boundary roughness changes in a complex fashion along the channel, the scaling of τb with Q and therefore the shape of p(τb ) is different at each transect. For example, at WANS28 (Fig. 2b), which is 102 102 approximately trapezoidal with relatively steep bank angles, we find 1 R ∼ τb ∼ Q 3 ⇔ 2 U ∼ Q5 ⇔ 5 τb ∼ U 6 . (3) At WANS29, located 650 m upstream, most flows are confined between gently dipping banks; only the highest discharges are bounded by steep bedrock walls. Here we find 1 R ∼ τb ∼ Q 2 ⇔ 1 U ∼ Q5 ⇔ 5 τb ∼ U 2 . (4) The scaling of τb with Q has an exponent that ranges from 2/3 to 1/4 over the surveyed reach, which points to a dynamic variability in channel roughness and shape that current landscape evolution models, which hold the scaling constant, fail to capture. PDFs of mean boundary shear stress We calculate the shear stress distribution p(τb ) for each transect by applying each empirical scaling relation τb ∼ Q1/β to the discharge distribution p(Q). Fig. 2(c) illustrates the result of the transformation at WANS28 where β = 3. The power-law tail of the discharge PDF steepens under transformation from p(Q) ∼ Q−α−1 with α ≈ 1 to p(τb ) ∼ τb −4 ∼ τb −γ−1 where γ = αβ = 3 . (5) Power-law distributions with such large exponents are relatively light-tailed, and in an empirical PDF they are barely distinguishable from exponential in their decay (Fig. 2). At WANS29, however, where β = 2, the τb tail decay is heavier, p(τb ) ∼ τb −3 ∼ τb −γ−1 where γ = αβ = 2 . (6) Values of γ vary along our study reach between 1.5 and 4, but typically fall between 2 and 3. 103 103 3. Discussion & conclusion We have shown how a combination of high-resolution remote-sensing, stream gauging, and field surveying can be used to measure hydraulic geometry, mean boundary shear stress τb , and its magnitude-frequency distribution at any transect along a mountain river channel. Table 2 summarizes our estimates of width, depth, and shear stress at ten selected transects for each of the discharges imaged by the F2 satellite. These estimates show that τb can vary significantly along the channel during a single discharge event, as the flow is squeezed and stretched through transects with different geometric and frictional characteristics. Our data illustrate the hydraulic geometry and minimum discharge Q∗ (and percentile Q% ) required to begin inundation of the channel wall (right-hand columns of Table 2). Field observation of flows below this critical stage, supplemented by simple Shields stress calculations, show that they can move bedload boulders up to ≈ 0.5 m in diameter. We conclude that a significant fraction of the moderate floods on the Zhuókŏuxı̄, and many other bedrock rivers in Taiwan and beyond, can move bed sediment and drive bedrock erosion, but cannot induce wear on the walls. Only more powerful floods, which in Taiwan occur semiannually but in other regions far less often, can cause significant wall erosion [Hartshorn et al., 2002; Turowski et al., 2008]. It is instructive to compare the magnitude-frequency distribution of mean boundary shear stress (Fig. 2d) in this fast-eroding river with shear stress data from more slowly eroding bedrock channels [e.g., Snyder et al., 2003]. We estimate that heavy semiannual floods of about Q ≈ 300-500 m3 s−1 on the Zhuókŏuxı̄ drive shear stresses of around 104 104 105 105 0.47 0.42 0.66 W21 347.1 W29 347.1 W28 353.0 42, 1.2, 62 33, 1.2, 52 73, 1.7, 79 65, 1.7, 65 92, 3.8, 123 w, H, τb 163 m3 s−1 17, 1.1, 36 16, 0.8, 17 13, 1.0, 22 22, 1.4, 39 19, 0.8, 26 11, 0.5, 29 23, 1.5, 46 24, 1.2, 23 31, 1.5, 28 26, 1.6, 46 34, 1.7, 58 55, 1.8, 81 67, 3.6, 96 59, 2.7, 53 61, 2.5, 47 58, 3.4, 95 47, 2.3, 80 95, 2.8, 133 12, 0.3, 21 99, 2.5, 134 104, 2.6, 140 24, 0.8, 47 24, 1.1, 55 54, 1.9, 36 w, H, τb w, H, τb 10, 0.6, 19 41 m3 s−1 5 m3 s−1 195, 8.0, 643 129, 5.6, 448 96, 4.6, 322 139, 6.1, 193 w, H, τb 3000 m3 s−1 90, 5.5, 191 97, 4.5, 94 66, 3.9, 92 153, 8.8, 249 69, 5.6, 236 109, 7.3, 261 134, 7.9, 189 148, 8.9, 226 161, 9.3, 264 157, 9.9, 315 150, 10.3, 782 155, 12.1, 925 183, 6.3, 480 110, 2.6, 135 91, 2.4, 104 126, 5.7, 188 w, H, τb 801 m3 s−1 H∗ τb ∗ Q̃∗ 2.2 2.3 1.3 3.2 67 81 52 3.4 3.6 3.1 142 8.1 60 114 3.3 40 125 2.9 96 76 97 73 68 231 110 158 90 152 85 50 150 356 94 539 433 249 7 1665 666 76 [m] [m] [Pa] m3 s−1 w∗ † Hydraulic geometry and minimum discharge at the initiation of channel wall inundation. Mean boundary shear stress τb is computed with equation 1 using w at which wetting of the wall begins for the field-surveyed cross-section. Critical discharge Q̃ and discharge percentile Q% derive from the correlation at each transect between w measured in satellite images with Dàjı̄n Q scaled by relative drainage area. ‡ S20 ≡ SHTO20,W23 ≡ WANS23, etc. 0.60 W27 347.0 0.66 W20 347.0 1.26 W25 346.8 1.08 1.19 W24 346.8 W26 346.9 1.07 W23 346.8 [%] [km2 ] 0.63 Slope Area 344.6 S20† ID Table 2: Flow widths w [m], depths H [m], and boundary shear stresses τb [Pa] at channel transects. 95.2 98.2 92.3 99.1 98.6 97.4 45.0 99.9 99.4 90.5 [%] Q% ∗ τb = 100-200 Pa. In contrast, Snyder et al. [2003] find that boundary shear stresses of a similar magnitude occur on the Fall Creek (a bedrock river of comparable scale in the Finger Lakes region of the north-eastern US) every 50 years or so during discharge around Q ≈ 300-400 m3 s−1 . These flows can both move coarse bedload and cause significant wear of the channel bedrock cross-section in both rivers. The maximum flood on record on the Zhuókŏuxı̄ (during Typhoon Mı̆ndūlı̀) is an order of magnitude greater in discharge (Q ≈ 3000 m3 s−1 ) than these floods, but produces a shear stress that is only a factor of two greater (e.g., at WANS28, Fig. 2(b)), with τb ≈ 300 Pa. Incision rates in each river are drastically different: Dadson et al. [2003] and others estimate the rate of incision in the south-western Central Range of Taiwan at around 6 mm y−1 ; Snyder et al. [2003] estimate a rate of 0.14 mm y−1 for the past 1400 years and infer τ ≈ 100-200 Pa for 50 year floods. The Zhuókŏuxı̄ is therefore eroding about 40 times faster than Fall Creek. Therefore, unless incision rates scale exponentially or very nonlinearly with maximum flood shear, the extreme incision rates in Taiwan probably originate instead in the exceptional frequency of their moderately erosive floods. The much higher sediment fluxes in Taiwan are an important cofactor, but it is not clear whether they boost (tool effects) or diminish (cover effects) the rate of bedrock wear [Sklar and Dietrich, 2004]. We deduce that the frequency of sufficiently high shear-stress floods, rather than the magnitude of exceptional shear stresses during extreme floods, is the more important factor in setting the pace of bedrock channel erosion. To test this assertion further will require long-term, event-by-event monitoring of floods in fast-eroding rivers like the Zhuókŏuxı̄. 106 106 Acknowledgments. This study was supported by the National Science Foundation through SGER EAR 05-50087 and GLD EAR 06-17557, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration through ESSF NGT5-30532 and NAG5-13772, and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. The authors thank G.-R. He, W.-L. Lee, W.-Y. Lai and the Maolin Municipal Fire Department for assistance in the field. 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Quantitative constraints on the properties of bedrock chan- nel flows are rare, particularly on their spatiotemporal variability and patterns of boundary shear stress during high magnitude/low frequency floods. Here we present such data for a rapidly eroding high-relief catchment in Taiwan, gathered through a combination of very high resolution, multitemporal satellite imagery, repeat pass topographic surveys, and long-term discharge records. We estimate through empirical rating curves the changing patterns and distributions of channel hydraulic geometry, boundary shear stresses, flow speeds, and friction coefficients along the stream and through time. We find that discharge in our study river is distributed with a heavy power-law tail characterized by typhoon-driven flood magnitudes that are up to a hundred times greater than average flow. However, the range of boundary shear stress is much smaller, with similar magnitudes (100-300 Pa) driven by intraannual (300 m3 s−1 ) to interdecadal (3000 m3 s−1 ) floods. Our empirically-derived time series and probability distributions of boundary shear stress serve to explain many of the morphological features and changes that we observe along this bedrock river. 112 112 1. Introduction Bedrock rivers set the pace of mountain landscape evolution through the magnitudes and frequencies of their flows. Morphological changes that occur during discharge events of different sizes provide clues about how catchments evolve in the long term, but observations and descriptions that link real-time channel changes to quantitative analyses of their flows along bedrock rivers tend to be limited to extreme events [e.g. Snyder et al., 2003a], or to individual transects [e.g. Hartshorn et al., 2002], leaving unanswered questions about the relative importance of flows of different magnitudes and frequencies and about how their effects vary along stream. Here we describe changes we observed along a river in Taiwan from 2002 to 2007, and show how these observations combine with measurements of flow characteristics and their changes through time and along the river to explain some aspects of the evolution of catchment morphology. The long-term entrainment of sediment and erosion of bedrock depend on the magnitude frequency distribution of boundary shear stresses of the flow through the channel. Measurement of boundary shear stress requires estimates of discharge, which are typically made at gauges, where records of stage are converted to discharge through an empirically derived and frequently recalibrated stage-to-discharge rating relationship. However, empirical data that relates discharges to their boundary shear stresses are rare. There is generally no choice but to infer characteristics of shear stress distributions from distributions of discharge without empirical constraints [e.g. Molnar et al., 2006]. Even where such data do exist, they typically only apply to the gauge location; along-stream variation in flow characteristics would require large numbers of stage recorders, the deployment of 113 113 which is impractical. In the rare case that station data are available for a mountain river, variations in flow geometry along stream therefore tend not to be recorded. This limits our ability to understand the degree, nature, and consequences of the spatiotemporal complexity of shear stresses along bedrock channels and to constrain models of channel evolution which would benefit from such data [e.g. Stark , 2006; Turowski et al., 2008; Wobus et al., 2006]. Satellite remote sensing is a possible solution, since it provides a means for extending hydraulic geometry data beyond a single station to an entire reach and for simultaneously mapping the resulting morphological changes. To date, remote-gauging studies of have focused on very large lowland rivers with broad floodplains [e.g. Smith, 1997; Bjerklie et al., 2003; Brakenridge et al., 2005], applying altimetry data to monitor river stage [Koblinsky et al., 1993; Birkett, 1998; Birkett et al., 2002], Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) interferometry to monitor stage change [Alsdorf et al., 2000, 2001], SAR to map flood inundation [Sippel et al., 1994, 1998; Townsend , 2001] or reach-averaged flow widths [Smith et al., 1995], and Visible and Near Infra-Red (VNIR) imagery to measure flow widths at channel transects with well-constrained cross-sectional geometries [Xu et al., 2004; Zhang et al., 2004]. The potential exists to estimate discharge with only data collected from satellites [Bjerklie et al., 2003], which, combined with high-resolution topographic data could provide an opportunity to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of shear stresses throughout the entire wetted channel network. However, remote gauging efforts so far have also included data from the ground, such as stage recorder discharge estimates for validation or calibration of the remotely gauged discharge [e.g. Xu et al., 2004]. 114 114 Application of remote gauging to small mountain rivers, as opposed to the broad alluvial ones that have so far been gauged remotely, is a different challenge mostly due to smaller spatial scales and greater relief: wetted channels 10 m-100 m wide require data with high spatial resolution to detect variations with flow, limiting us (at present) to the use of optical data from only a few commercial imaging satellites; accurate image-series coregistration requires imagery at or near nadir, 10 m resolution or better digital elevation data, and very good ground control, which is sometimes impossible in narrow valleys with limited Global Positioning System (GPS) reception; orographic clouds frequently obscure flood-stage flows making it unlikely to capture the extreme events in any imagery, since cloud cover and flood stage tend to be roughly correlated; access to the channel for ground validation of flow geometries is logistically and technically more complicated; significant changes in alluvial bed geometry occur frequently, frustrating width-based rating; flows are typically shallow, rough, and sinuous, complicating any modeling component to the gauging scheme. We show here that remote gauging of mountain river discharge is possible with the right data, which includes very high resolution, multitemporal satellite imagery, good ground control for image coregistration, and a well-located river stage recorder that provides a long time-series of discharge estimates. These criteria are met in many mountain catchments in Taiwan, a compelling location for the spatiotemporal assessment of channel flows and boundary shear stresses because of its exceptional rates of bedrock channel incision and landscape evolution [e.g. Li , 1976; Hartshorn et al., 2002; Dadson et al., 2003; Turowski et al., 2008]. We also show how remote gauging combines with topographic surveys to provide estimates of boundary shear stresses and their magnitude frequency distri- 115 115 butions, something that none of the prior remote gauging studies have attempted, and we demonstrate how our method of remote gauging can provide information to explain observed channel changes and to inform studies of bedrock channel dynamics. 2. Study area We have been monitoring the Zhuókŏuxı̄ (the name is often rendered as the Jhuokou or Jukou Shi and means “Muddy Mouth River”) since 2002. It is a small mountain river located on the south-western flank of the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan (Figure 1e) at a steep range front created by the oblique-thrust Cháozhōu (Chauchou) fault. This river drains a 375 km2 catchment along the Màolı́n Valley through a designated scenic area with limited development along the channel. There are no dams in the catchment, but there are some stone or concrete embankments that reinforce sections of the channel walls (although most of these failed during recent floods). A modest tourist industry supports three villages in the valley with sufficient infrastructure to provide very easy access to many points along the channel; during periods of low flow, it is possible to walk along and across at least the lower 15 km of the Zhuókŏuxı̄. This accessibility also encourages open-pit mining of fresh gravel deposits after flood events. Our study reach extends 14 km upstream from the mouth at Dàjı̄n where the Zhuókŏuxı̄ joins the Gāopı́ng (Kaoping) River. This steep (Figure 1c), and sinuous bedrock [sensu Turowski et al., 2008] river cuts rapidly [Dadson et al., 2003] through an intermittent veneer of mostly quartzite cobbles, boulders, and argillaceous sand, into argillite bedrock. Abundant cutoff meander loops at a range of elevations along the valley, as well as alternating valley asymmetry along stream with preserved slip-off slopes on the inside of each bend and active landsliding on the cutbank side (red polygons in Figure 1e) all indicate 116 116 WANS24 SHTO20 WANS20 WANS21 WANS29 LOTS04 WANS28 WANS23 (a) ~25m 150 1.5 Slope [%] WANS03 SHTO20 WANS28 WANS29 WANS27 WANS23 LUMS02 (b) XINS03 100 LUMS01 (c) WANS07 LUMS10 LUMS02 1 (e) 0.5 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Downstream Distance [km] 120°E XINN21 XINN20 LUMS11 XINN22 0 XINS03 XINS02 122°E (d) XINS01 DAJN20 0 22°N 24°N WANS10 WANS27 WANS22 WANS04 WANS06 WANS26 200 DAJN20 Elevation [m] WANS25 250 0.5 1 Km Figure 1: (e) A shaded relief image of the Màolı́n Valley generated from a 5 m digital elevation model showing the locations of 28 surveyed channel cross-sections used as flow width measurement sites and as HEC-RAS model input. Red polygons show new landslides mapped in a F2 image acquired 2006/03/17 that were not present on December 31, 2003. (a) Photograph from camera-equipped remote controlled helicopter of landslides at Shétóushān (location marked in (e) by curved red arrow). (b) Zhuókŏu River bed elevation and (c) downstream gradient (smoothed). (d) Location in SW Taiwan. 117 117 that the river is actively meandering [e.g. Winslow , 1893; Rich, 1914; Tarr , 1924; Mahard , 1942]. Discharge Q measured at Dàjı̄n by the Taiwan Water Resources Agency (WRA) rises during the onset of the Méiyŭ rainy season in spring, and peaks during typhoons in the summer and autumn. Twice in the past few years instantaneous Q has exceeded 3000 m3 s−1 , although extreme flood discharges usually persist for no more than a few days with peaks that last only hours before dropping back to typical wet-season levels below ∼100 m3 s−1 . Daily averages during the most extreme events therefore tend to reach about 1000 to 2000 m3 s−1 . During the dry season from late fall through winter, discharges drop close to zero. The scale of the Màolı́n Valley (on the order of 100 m across) and its relief (up to 1 km from channel to ridge), and the rates of channel evolution (incision is approximately 5 mm yr− 1, and lateral migration is evident through field observations even on annual to decadal timescales) make this reach an ideal choice for testing the feasibility limits of remote-gauging, and for demonstrating how the use of remote gauging for monintoring a mountain river can provide new insight into bedrock channel dynamics. 3. Observations of channel change We have observed morphological changes along the Zhuókŏuxı̄ for the past six years through repeat observations in the field and in high-resolution satellite imagery. Significant changes resulted from two tropical cyclones that made landfall over this part of Taiwan during the summers of 2004 and 2005: discharge reached 3163 m3 s−1 on July 4, 2004 during Typhoon Mı̆ndūlı̀ (Mindulle), the highest ever recorded on the Zhuókŏu River, deep and powerful enough destroy almost all of the bridges that cross our study reach; a 118 118 year later on July 20, 2005, discharge during Typhoon Hăitáng reached 2894 m3 s−1 . The Water Resources Agency (WRA) of Taiwan considers both of these discharge events to match the 50 year flood magnitude. For example, Figures 2 and 3 show subsets of a multi-spectral SPOT image (at 2.5 m spatial resolution) acquired on December 31, 2003 alongside a pan-sharpened (8 m in multispectral and 2 m in panchromatic) FORMOSAT-2 (F2) image acquired on March 17, 2006. Several differences are evident: an abandoned meander loop was reoccupied by the deep flow and then abandoned again during the recession at Lóngtóushān (Figure 2a,b); an outer and recently unused branch of the Shétóushān loop was re-established as the main channel after an inner branch (itself incised at least a meter into bedrock) had contained the flow for at least several years (Figure 2c,d); the inner channel and the vegetated hill between these branches were replaced with a relatively thin and flat gravel and boulder point bar; downstream at Upper (Figure 2a,b) and Lower (Figure 2c,d) Wànshān, the deep flow eroded point bars and found a less sinuous path along a series of shoots that are only wet during these extreme events; and in each of the F2 images of Figures 2 and 3, new landslides appear along the channel. These are also mapped and shown in red in Figure 1e. For the 3 years of our study after Hăitáng, discharge at the gauge remained below 1000 m3 s−1 . In 2006, it reached flood stage three times, peaking at 883 m3 s−1 on June 10, 673 m3 s−1 on July 14, 2006 and 385 m3 s−1 on July 25. These flows were sufficient to erode into an embankment of 0.5-2 m boulders beneath the bridge at Lower Wànshān. The embankment recession is clearly visible in precisely coregisterred high-resolution FORMOSAT-2 images acquired on March 17 and September 28, 2006 (Figure 4a,b). Low- 119 119 (a) (b) Longtoushan Longtoushan SHTO20 SHTO20 (d) (c) SHTO20 SHTO20 Shetoushan Shetoushan WANS25 0 0.25 0.5 WANS25 0.75 1 Km Figure 2: Channel changes along the Zhuókŏuxı̄. Right: SPOT image (December 30, 2003) acquired before two extreme events. Left: F2 image (March 17, 2006) acquired after. Images are of Lóngtóushān (a,b) and Shétóushān (c,d). The black lines mark the water’s edge mapped in the field with a DGPS during the week of March 17, 2006. 120 120 (a) (b) WANS25 Upper Wanshan WANS10 WANS10 Lower Wanshan (c) Lower Wanshan (d) WANS07 WANS07 WANS10 0 Figure 3: 0.25 WANS25 Upper Wanshan 0.5 0.75 WANS10 1 Km Channel changes along the Zhuókŏuxı̄. Right: SPOT image (December 30, 2003) acquired before two extreme events. Left: F2 image (March 17, 2006) acquired after. Images are of Upper Wànshān (a,b) and Lower Wànshān (c,d). The black lines mark the water’s edge mapped in the field with a DGPS during the week of March 17, 2006. 121 121 March 17, 2006 September 28, 2006 (a) (b) N N 0 50 100 200 m March 17, 2006 July 27, 2007 (c) (d) N 15 m Figure 4: Channel comparison in F2 images from March 17, 2006 (a) and September 28, 2006 (b), and in low-level aerial photographs taken with a camera mounted on a remote controlled helicopter on from March 17, 2006 (c) and July 27, 2007 (d). The footbridge near the bottom of (c) and (d) is marked by a diagonal green line near the top of (a) and (b). Transect WANS03 is approximately 200 m upstream from the bridge, in the upper half of the aerial photographs. 122 122 level aerial photographs taken March 17, 2006 and July 25, 2007 reveal the redistribution of sediment, with well-sorted boulders confined to the embankment in the first image but spread across the gravel bar in the second. That is, boulders at least 50 cm in size were transported by discharges less that 1000 m3 s−1 . It is also clear in the aerial photographs that these intraannual floods shifted the thalweg and modified it from a very straight to a slightly curved planform through the thin alluvial cover. These short term changes in channel morphology were all accomplished during interdecadal and intraannual floods. To relate them to the long term evolution of the channel, we must understand both the physical properties of these floods and their relative magnitude and frequency of these within a long term discharge time series. This requires data on the hydraulic geometry of the range of discharges that flow through the channel, data we obtained through a combination of remote sensing, field surveys and discharge records. 4. Data 4.1. Optical satellite imagery Since 2004, the Taiwanese FORMOSAT-2 (F2) satellite has collected 2 m-resolution panchromatic images and 8 m-resolution multispectral images at approximately 10 am daily over Taiwan along a swath 24 km wide. The return period for any given region of interest is irregular because of scheduling priorities; image acquisition is often off-nadir, affecting both the field of view and the amount of image distortion, and makes many images, particularly those in high relief areas, unsuitable for orthorectification and coregistration. Substantial cloud cover is common, especially during high-magnitude discharges, since these tend to occur contemporaneously with the storms that drive them. Nevertheless, many near cloud-free images of the Zhuókŏuxı̄ with good satellite geometry are available. 123 123 Most of these are acquired during the dry season when the river is at low stage and the sky is clear, but on a few rare passes, F2 has captured the river at higher stage. Because we focus here on the way that the physical properties of different flows contribute to channel evolution, we have strategically selected a series of images that capture the entire range of discharges in the channel from the dry season base flow to the largest storm floods (Table 1 55 and Figure ??). If our priority was instead to map the changes to channel morphology, we would have selected instead a time series of images that capture the channel at low stage between significant events. We were able to take advantage of the F2 programming schedule to acquire an image of the Zhuókŏuxı̄ at our request during fieldwork on March 17, 2006. Prior to the overpass, we deployed a set of satellite-visible, precisely located targets on the river bed, each consisting of two white reflective plastic sheets, 2 m by 6 m in size and oriented with the cardinal directions in a cross on a dry part of the channel bed. We also mapped the edges of the wetted channel along our entire study reach the week of March 17, 2006 with a handheld differentially corrected GPS (DGPS). These points and vectors collected at the time of image acquisition assure the best possible ground control for this image, which we used as the reference for image series coregistration (Methods). 4.2. Topography Precise coregistration of a high-resolution image series requires a high-resolution DEM and ground control points for the orthorectification of each image. We used a 5m DEM of our study area and a collection of ground control points that we acquired in the field with a DGPS and in a set of large scale orthophotographs. Ground control points for all images included the corners of buildings, bridge towers, large boulders, lone trees, street corners, 124 124 Table 1: FORMOSAT-2 image set ∗ Date † Q Q% ‡ Cloud cover Use 2006/3/17 5 34 10% low-stage, reference 2006/9/28 41 82 0% mean-stage 2006/7/29 126 93.9 0% mid-stage 2006/7/11 200 96.3 0% mid-stage 2005/8/07 801 99.5 30% high-stage 2005/7/10 14 n/a 0% pre-Hăitáng§ 2005/8/01 1 n/a 0% post-Hăitáng§ 2003/12/30∗∗ 16 n/a 0% pre-Mı̆ndūlı̀§ ∗ Images acquired between 9:55 am and 10:05 am local time. Hourly discharge in m3 s−1 was measured at Dàjı̄n in 2005 and at Xı̄nnóng in 2006. Reported here is the discharge measured at 10 am, scaled by relative drainage area to the Dàjı̄n gauge. ‡ Q percentile. § Discharge during Hăitáng reached 2894 m3 s−1 on 2005/07/20. The maximum discharge on record for this catchment, 3163 m3 s−1 occurred one year earlier, during Typhoon Mı̆ndūlı̀. ∗∗ SPOT-5 image. † 125 125 126 126 04 05 F2 801 m3s-1 2005/08/07 F2 5 m3s-1 2006/03/17 06 F2 126 m3s-1 2006/07/29 Figure 5. SPOT-5 and FORMOSAT-2 images of the Zhuókŏu River at a range of stages and the WRA hydrograph of daily average discharge from 2004, 2005, and 2006. The dotted black line is the channel centerline mapped in the field with a handheld GPS in March 2006 and July 2007. Colored vertical lines in the hydrograph show the date of acquisition of satellite imagery. SPOT-5 16 m3s-1 2003/12/30 F2 41 m3s-1 2006/09/28 and other objects clearly visible in the F2 images. The reference image from March 17, 2006 had additional ground control from the points and vectors that we collected in the field during the image acquisition. Estimation of boundary shear stress τb requires knowledge of the topography across and along the channel, so we surveyed cross sections at 28 transects (Figure 1) in the field in March of 2006 and July of 2007. Since these transects would be used with remote measurements of wetted channel widths, their locations were selected stategically with consideration of their geometry: we tended to avoided narrow gorges where widths vary only slightly with discharge, and selected instead broad parts of the channel where at least onebank dips gently, maximizing the variation of width with discharge. However, because we sought to understand the along stream variation of flow properties, we also included a few transects with steep banks on both sides. We used a DGPS to map the channel edges in the field during the week of March 17, 2007. To reduce noise in the GPS measurements, we snapped both channel edges to their centerline and converted them to evenly spaced coordinates of along-channel length and elevation using a 300 m median filter. We derived the channel gradient from the longitudinal profile by finding the slope of least-squares linear regressions along a 300 m moving window. The field-mapped channel edges also serve as additional ground control for the March 17, 2006 reference F2 image. 4.3. Discharge The Water Resources Agency of Taiwan has maintained an automatic stage recorder on the Zhuókŏuxı̄ since 1971, first at LUMS02 (1971–1983), then at DAJN20 (1989–2005), and now at XINS03 (2006–present) (Figure 1). Stage is measured hourly and yields the 127 127 daily statistics: mean Qμ = 39.5 m3 s−1 , standard deviation Qσ = 130 m3 s−1 , coefficient of variation Qcv = 3.31, 99th percentile Q99 = 567 m3 s−1 , and peak Qmax > 3000 m3 s−1 . Since we have observed that even intraannual floods can move the intermittent bed cover (Figure 4), the channel geometry may change significantly between annual surveys, and changes in sediment cover at the gauge site can significantly affect the conversion of water level or flow width measurements to discharge estimates. Maintenance of the gauge therefore includes an annual survey of the channel cross section at the gauge and approximately bi-weekly visits to the gauge location to measure flow velocities, depths, and cross sectional areas used to construct and recalibration the rating curve. The 36-year record of daily mean discharge along the Zhuókŏuxı̄ has a probability distribution that is approximated in its tail by p(Q) ∼ Q−α−1 ∼ Q−2 , i.e., it has a Pareto exponent of α ≈ 1 (Figure 6). Time series have probability distributions with this kind of heavy tail when there is a significant number of events with extremely higher than average magnitude [Turcotte and Green, 1993; Stark and Hovius, 2001; Lague et al., 2005]. On the Zhuókŏuxı̄ these extreme floods are driven primarily by typhoons, which tend to make landfall in this part of Taiwan at least a once or twice each year and can boost discharge up to two orders of magnitude above average. It is important to emphasize that the long-term record of discharge contains daily mean values, but that the satellite imagery captures the instantaneous flow conditions. We obtained hourly data from the WRA for the years covered by our image time series (20042006) and used the 10:00 am measurements for comparisons of discharge and aspects of the hydraulic geometry. We also used the short time series of hourly data to evaluate the effect of using the long daily time series for the construction and analysis of PDFs. PDFs of the 128 128 í 10 Probability density p(Q) [mí s] -D – 1 § -2 í 10 í 10 í 10 í 10 í 10 í 10 Qhí Qdí Qdí 1 2 10 10 3 10 4 10 3 í Q [m s ] Figure 6: PDFs of hourly (Qh ) and daily average (Qd ) discharge on the Zhuókŏuxı̄ from the WRA archive along with schematic power law tangent to the tail portion of the distribution (gray dashed line). 129 129 hourly data and their daily averages are shown in Figure 6; their very close correspondence indicates that only minor, if any, error will result from combining instantaneous measures of flow characteristics with the long term record of daily, rather than hourly, discharge. 5. Methods 5.1. Image series coregistration Wetted channel widths vary with discharge as flow fills a channel with sloping banks to different depths. However, in a series of imagery, wetted channel widths can also vary between images due to distortion caused by different view angles or satellite positions during acquisition. It is therefore necessary to precisely coregister the image series. We accomplished this in two steps. First, we used the 5 m DEM and ground control points, along with camera model information for the F2 sensors to orthorectify each image. Then, we coregistered each orthorectified image to the March 17, 2006 reference image with a rubber-sheet warping procedure that itself involved the identification of hundreds of matching points in each subject-reference pair of images. For our purposes, precision of coregistration of the image series is most important in the valley bottom which contains the wetted channel. Poor registration in the ridges does not affect our measurements. Therefore, we focused our selection of matching points in subject and reference image pairs on features along the channel. The subject image was then stretched to match precisely the reference image at these points, assuring that differences in wetted channel width relate to the flow conditions in the channel and not the orbital conditions of the satellite. 130 130 5.2. Measurement of wetted channel width and construction of widthdischarge rating curves Remote gauging depends on the construction of a rating curve from measurements of some aspect of hydraulic geometry, such as water level, channel width at transects [Xu et al., 2004, e.g.], reach-averaged effective width [Smith et al., 1995, e.g.], or inundation area, at a range of known discharges. Once a single rating curve for a transect or reach, or a set of curves for several transects or reaches, is established from known discharges, discharge can be estimated for hydraulic geometry measured in additional remotely sensed datasets acquired at unknown discharge. Our F2 image series captures the full range of intraannual flows on the Zhuókŏuxı̄, from 5 to more than 800 m3 s−1 . Although images were not acquired during the extreme floods of Mı̆ndūlı̀ and Hăitáng, we were able to also measure the extent of these interdecadal discharges, since together, they left a high water mark along much of the channel (Figure 8) which we mapped through a comparison of a SPOT-5 image acquired before Mı̆ndūlı̀ and F2 images acquired after each storm (Table 1). We validated this mapping at each transect in the field with observations and surveys of the high water mark. We used a variety of processing techniques to highlight the edges of the wetted channel, since the clarity of this boundary depends on shadows, haze, illumination angle, channel orientation, and bed material: in some cases, it is sharply defined in the panchromatic image; in others, it is clearer in a pan-sharpened version of the multispectral image; in yet other cases, it is most clear after applying a Sobel edge filter to the panchromatic image. We measured the wetted channel width of the Zhuókŏuxı̄ at the transects shown in Figure 1 in each F2 image. Since the satellite passes Taiwan at approximately 10 am 131 131 a WANS26 WANS25 WANS24 WANS23 WANS20 WANS27 b c 0 Figure 7: 50 100 m FORMOSAT-2 image zooms of the Zhuókŏu River at Upper Wànshān at low, medium, and high stages from (a) March 17, 2006, at Q = 5 m3 s−1 ; (b) July 11, 2006, at Q = 126 m3 s−1 ; (c) August 7, 2005, at Q = 801 m3 s−1 . The colored polygons indicate the mapped inundation; the black-trimmed white lines are the locations of channel transects. 132 132 5m Figure 8: Photograph of the Mı̆ndūlı̀ and Hăitáng high water mark near WANS21. 133 133 each day, we matched each F2 image to the 10 am WRA discharge measurement fron its image date. The collection of width measurements along with the associated discharges 22 comprise a unique width-discharge rating curve for each transect (Table ??). 5.3. Measurement of shear stress and flow speed We combined the measurements of hydraulic geometry with a normal flow approximation for open channel flow to estimate the mean boundary shear stress τb for the discharges imaged in the F2 imagery. We computed τb as τb = ρg Aw S = ρgRS , P (1) where R is the hydraulic radius (the ratio of cross-sectional area Aw to wetted perimeter P ), ρ is water density, g is gravitational acceleration, S is the channel bed slope which is assumed to match the water surface slope [e.g. Turowski et al., 2008]. Equation 1 only applies because we chose transect locations where the channel has a relatively uniform gradient and is relatively straight. Mean flow speed is defined as the discharge per unit cross-sectional area A, U = Q/A . (2) Because τb and U depend on R and A respectively, their computation for a given flow at a given transect requires knowledge of the hydraulic geometry. Equation 1 indicates that shear stress τb ∼ R. Since the relationship between R and Q can vary significantly downstream with changes in channel topography, friction, and drainage area, the scaling of Q and τb , and therefore also the probility density of shear stress p(τb ), varies along the river and must be computed empirically at each transect. We accomplished this by using the hydraulic radius R that comes from the intersection of 134 134 135 135 Area km2 343.5 344.6 346.8 346.8 346.8 346.9 347.0 347.0 347.1 347.1 353.0 353.0 353.3 353.3 355.2 355.2 356.1 358.3 358.5 364.8 365.5 365.6 365.7 365.8 365.9 366.4 372.1 375.1 ID LOTS04 SHTO20 WANS23 WANS24 WANS25 WANS26 WANS20 WANS27 WANS21 WANS29 WANS28 WANS10 WANS06 WANS22 WANS04 WANS03 WANS07 LUMS02 LUMS01 LUMS10 LUMS11 XINN22 XINN21 XINN20 XINS02 XINS03 XINS01 DAJN20 1.05 0.63 1.07 1.19 1.26 1.08 0.66 0.60 0.47 0.42 0.66 0.48 0.71 0.65 0.76 0.66 0.77 0.89 0.80 0.50 0.61 0.46 0.48 0.61 0.66 0.52 0.66 0.27 Slope % 519 521 524 524 524 524 525 525 525 525 534 534 534 534 537 537 538 542 542 551 552 553 553 553 553 554 562 567 Q99 m3 s−1 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.9 31 11 15 25 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.8 2.4 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.3 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.1 1.3 0.4 3.3 2.4 0.8 21 9 7 16 15 19 55 47 21 29 26 39 22 17 36 11 19 45 25 18 22 28 14 10 14 10 5 m3 s−1 H U τb 18 10 24 24 12 11 19 22 13 16 17 33 21 23 10 15 13 10 21 13 19 17 w 4 1 2 5 2 3 10 8 4 5 5 7 4 3 6 3 6 8 3 3 3 5 3 1 2 2 D 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 45 20 30 31 0.5 1.9 1.2 1.2 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.5 0.8 1.1 2.6 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.0 4.3 1.2 2.3 1.7 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.9 2.4 4.5 5.0 0.7 1.4 1.1 2.3 3.5 2.1 2.4 2.0 7.7 5.2 4.6 13 17 7 20 32 36 52 62 134 81 58 46 28 23 46 10 21 79 44 42 31 40 28 22 41 m3 s−1 H U τb 28 54 33 42 99 55 34 26 31 24 23 39 26 44 45 49 43 24 53 35 w 2 5 2 4 5 10 11 13 27 17 10 8 6 4 8 3 6 15 11 9 6 10 6 4 D 36 55 81 75 63 40 92 65 73 104 95 47 58 61 59 67 67 57 72 89 75 71 62 80 72 55 67 w 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.8 3.8 1.7 1.7 2.6 2.8 2.3 3.4 2.5 2.7 3.6 2.1 2.6 4.2 4.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.2 2.4 1.4 1.1 2.7 0.8 3.7 3.0 1.3 1.3 2.6 1.6 2.4 2.0 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.1 0.6 3.5 2.9 5.9 3.7 1.7 4.4 6.6 10.7 5.9 5.2 4.0 2.6 25 31 19 35 25 138 123 65 79 140 133 80 95 47 53 96 54 91 127 209 39 57 36 41 61 38 17 163 m3 s−1 H U τb 4 5 4 9 5 17 21 16 17 29 27 13 18 10 10 19 9 16 24 30 10 10 13 9 10 7 4 D 150 87 126 91 110 183 150 69 153 66 97 90 w 5.7 1.9 2.4 7.7 2.6 5.6 6.3 1.0 10.3 0.6 5.6 2.9 8.8 1.1 3.9 4.2 4.5 3.3 5.5 2.8 2.7 4.2 3.0 6.0 81 40 188 104 135 480 782 236 249 92 94 191 801 m3 s−1 H U τb 16 7 31 22 26 69 97 32 45 16 17 31 D 5.5 6.9 5.7 4.4 3.8 8.9 4.1 4.8 8.3 9.5 9.6 7.1 6.1 4.7 6.9 152 124 117 149 121 235 163 91 114 163 218 6.1 4.6 5.6 8.0 12.1 9.9 9.3 8.9 7.9 7.3 6.3 8.9 5.4 2.7 2.0 3.5 3.8 3.6 4.4 6.3 10.3 7.0 7.8 10.2 10 3.6 10.6 7.1 3.6 1.8 2.4 6.0 5.5 5.9 4.1 153 536 112 165 286 324 434 328 231 198 87 243 231 253 179 193 322 448 643 925 315 264 226 189 261 3000 m3 s−1 H U τb 74 111 103 97 139 96 129 195 155 157 161 148 134 109 w 29 62 18 25 33 39 51 41 27 27 16 34 39 38 25 33 43 58 87 113 56 48 36 29 41 D Table 2. Flow widths w [m], maximum depths H [m], average flow speeds U [ms− 1], boundary shear stresses τb [Pa], and particle diameter D (for τ ∗ = 0.07) [cm] at channel transects. Note that reported here for H and D are the maximum flow depths Hmax and the diameter of the largest mobile particle Dmax measured flow widths and surveyed channel transects to obtain estimates of τb for the set of imaged and mapped flows at each transect. We compared Q and τb of the measured flows at transect to find their empirical scaling. This scaling can be applied to the to the time series of Q to infer the time series of τb , which can be evaluated to find the τb probability distribution. In general the scaling of Q and τb tends to approximately follow a power-law model τb ∼ Q1/β . Therefore, an alternative approach for finding the τb PDF is to apply this power-law model to the discharge PDF to transform it directly to a τb PDF. For example, at WANS28, which is approximately trapezoidal with relatively steep bank angles, we find (Fig. 18 ??)(a) 1 R ∼ τb ∼ Q 3 ⇔ 2 U ∼ Q5 ⇔ 5 τb ∼ U 6 . (3) The power-law tail of the discharge PDF steepens under the transformation from p(Q) ∼ Q−α−1 with α ≈ 1 to p(τb ) ∼ τb −4 ∼ τb −γ−1 where γ = αβ = 3 . (4) At WANS29, located 650 m upstream, most flows are confined between gently dipping banks; only the highest discharges are bounded by steep bedrock walls. Here we find 1 R ∼ τb ∼ Q 2 ⇔ 1 U ∼ Q5 ⇔ 5 τb ∼ U 2 . (5) Since β = 2, the τb tail decay here is somewhat heavier, p(τb ) ∼ τb −3 ∼ τb −γ−1 where γ = αβ = 2 . (6) Many transects have more complicated geometry than WANS28 and WANS29, making the regression of a power law a poor choice to approximate the scaling of Q and τb . In these 136 136 cases, a piecewise interpolation of the Q and τb relationship is more appropriate. However, despite differences along the river in cross-sectional geometry and friction, which combine to affect the scaling relationship of Q and τb , and despite being driven by discharge with a heavy-tailed probability distribution, the τb probability distributions for all of our transects decay sharply in the higher magnitudes. Power-law distributions with this kind of semi-heavy tail decay are barely distinguishable from exponential distributions. This reflects a fundamental difference between the magnitude frequency distribution of discharge and that of shear stress: the discharge time series has interdecadal floods that are two orders of magnitude greater than average flow conditions and one order of magnitude greater than the intraannual floods; the shear stress of extreme floods, however, is similar in scale to the shear stress of yearly floods and only one order of magnitude greater than average flow conditions. 5.4. Incipient motion of bed sediment Erosion of the channel bed requires transport of the overlying bedcover, so it is important to establish what flows are required to move the boulders lining the channel bed. To assess the size of boulders that flows can move, we use the Shields number τ ∗ [Shields, 1936], a ratio of the boundary shear stress of the moving fluid to the weight of a cohesionless particle submerged in the flow. It is defined by τ∗ = τb (ρs − ρ)gD (7) where ρs is the density of the sediment particle, ρ is the denisty of water, and D is the particle diameter. Particles are suspended in the flow when τ ∗ = 1, but there is an empirically determined critical level τ ∗ << 1 which marks incipient motion. Particles in 137 137 gravel-bedded rivers typically moving when 0.03 < τ ∗ < 0.07, although isolated particles have been observed to move at τ ∗ = 0.01, and imbricated clusters may require τ ∗ > 0.2 [e.g. Fenton and Abbott, 1977; Buffington and Montgomery, 1997; Church and Hassan, 2002]. Substituting for τb in Equation 1 yields τ∗ = ρgRS , (ρs − ρ)gD (8) recalling that we have defined R as hydraulic radius and S as slope. Note that the symbol R is sometimes used in Shields stress equations for the submerged specific gravity. Instead we use ρ∗ , which is defined as ρ∗ = ρs − ρ . ρ (9) Simplifying Equation 8 and combining with Equation 9 gives τ∗ = RS . ρ∗ D (10) We rearrange Equation 10 so that it is solved for particle diameter D, and use the maximum flow depth Hmax instead of hydraulic radius R to find the maximum grain size Dmax that can be moved by a particular flow, Dmax = Hmax S . ρ∗ τ ∗ (11) Using a conservative τ ∗ = 0.07 for incipient particle motion, an assumption of ρ∗ ≈ 1.65, our GPS-derived S, and an H that comes from the intersection of our F2-measured widths and surveyed channel cross sections, we used Equation 11 to find a conservative estimate 22 for the maximum partical size Dmax that each measured flow can move (Table ??). Much larger particles may move if they are isolated and protruding above their surroundings, since the shields number for these could be as low as 0.01 [Fenton and Abbott, 1977]. 138 138 Dmax, 3000= 33 cm 5 Dmax, 99 = 31 cm (a) 0 50 100 Distance from thalweg [m] 0 Max Depth [m] Elevation [m] 10 150 Q [m3 sí] 0 10 (b) 0.1 U Cf 0 Tb [Pa] 10 Cf>í@ U [m sí] 10 0 (c) 100 D [cm] 0 (d) 0 0 10 10 10 3 í Probability density p(Tb) [Paí] Q [m s ] í 10 í 10 í 10 í 10 (e) 30 100 Tb exceedance [days/yr] Tb [Pa] (f) 100 30 10 Q99 3 1 dry walls wet walls 0.1 0 50 100 150 Tb [Pa] Figure 9: Cross section topography with the 3000 m3 s−1 and the 99th percentile flow depths indicated along with the diameter of the largest particle that each flow can move (a). Comparison of flow speed U and Chezy friction Cf with discharge Q (b). Comparison of boundary shear stress τb with discharge Q (c). Comparison of maximum particle diameter Dmax (d). Boundary shear stress probability density with γ ≈ 4 (e). Boundary shear stress complimentary cumulative distribution (f), all at transect SHTO20. 139 139 6 Dmax, 3000 cm D,max, 99 = 20 cm (a) í 0 60 Distance from thalweg [m] 0 Max Depth [m] Elevation [m] 80 Q [m3 sí] 0 10 Cf 8 6 (b) U 0 300 Tb [Pa] 10 Cf>í@ U [m sí] 10 0 100 (c) D [cm] 0 (d) 0 0 10 10 10 3 í Probability density p(Tb) [Paí] Q [m s ] í 10 í 10 í 10 í 10 (e) Tb exceedance [days/yr] 30 Tb [Pa] 100 300 (f) 100 30 10 Q99 3 1 0.1 dry walls wet walls 0 100 Tb [Pa] 300 Figure 10: Cross section topography (a), flow characteristics (b-d), boundary shear stress probability density with γ ≈ 1.5 (e), and boundary shear stress complimentary cumulative distribution (f) at transect WANS23. 140 140 Dmax, 3000= 58 cm Dmax, 99 = 25 cm (a) 0 50 Distance from thalweg [m] 0 Max Depth [m] Elevation [m] 100 Q [m3 sí] 0 10 10 Cf 0.1 (b) U 0 Tb [Pa] Cf>í@ U [m sí] 10 0 (c) D [cm] 0 (d) 0 0 10 10 10 3 í Probability density p(Tb) [Paí] Q [m s ] í 10 í 10 í 10 í 10 (e) Tb exceedance [days/yr] 30 Tb [Pa] 100 300 (f) 100 30 10 Q99 3 1 dry walls wet walls 0.1 0 100 300 Tb [Pa] Figure 11: Cross section topography (a), flow characteristics (b-d), boundary shear stress probability density with γ ≈ 1.5 (e), and boundary shear stress complimentary cumulative distribution (f) at transect WANS24. 141 141 0 Dmax, 99 = 47 cm (a) í Max Depth [m] Elevation [m] Dmax, 3000 = 87 cm í í 0 Distance from thalweg [m] Q [m3 sí] 0 10 3 10 U [m sí] 1 Cf>í@ 1 U (b) Cf 0 Tb [Pa] 10 0 (c) D [cm] 0 (d) 0 0 10 10 10 Probability density p(Tb) [Paí] Q [m3 sí] í 10 í 10 í 10 í 10 (e) Tb exceedance [days/yr] 30 100 Tb [Pa] 300 (f) 100 30 10 Q99 3 1 dry 0.1 walls wet walls 0 Tb [Pa] Figure 12: Cross section topography (a), flow characteristics (b-d), boundary shear stress probability density with γ ≈ 2.5 (e), and boundary shear stress complimentary cumulative distribution (f) at transect WANS25. 142 142 Dmax, 3000 = 113 cm 10 Dmax, 99 = 64cm (a) í 0 Max Depth [m] Elevation [m] 0 100 Distance from thalweg [m] Q [m3 sí] 0 10 U 1 1 Cf>í@ U [m sí] Tb [Pa] 10 (b) Cf 0 1000 0 (c) 0 100 D [cm] 10 (d) 0 0 10 10 10 3 í Probability density p(Tb) [Paí] Q [m s ] í 10 í 10 í 10 í 10 (e) Tb exceedance [days/yr] 30 100 Tb [Pa] 300 (f) 100 30 10 Q99 3 1 dry 0.1 walls wet walls 0 600 Tb [Pa] 800 1000 Figure 13: Cross section topography (a), flow characteristics (b-d), boundary shear stress probability density with γ ≈ 2.25 (e), and boundary shear stress complimentary cumulative distribution (f) at transect WANS26. 143 143 Dmax, 3000 = 56 cm 10 Dmax, 99 = 23 cm (a) í 0 í 0 Distance from thalweg [m] Max Depth [m] Elevation [m] Q [m3 sí] 0 10 (b) 0.1 Cf U 0 300 Tb [Pa] 10 Cf>í@ U [m sí] 10 0 (c) 100 D [cm] 0 60 (d) 0 0 10 10 10 3 í Probability density p(Tb) [Paí] Q [m s ] í 10 í 10 í 10 í 10 (e) 30 100 300 Tb exceedance [days/yr] Tb [Pa] (f) 100 30 10 Q99 3 1 dry walls wet walls 0.1 0 100 Tb [Pa] 300 Figure 14: Cross section topography (a), flow characteristics (b-d), boundary shear stress probability density with γ ≈ 2.5 (e), and boundary shear stress complimentary cumulative distribution (f) at transect WANS20. 144 144 10 Dmax, 99 = 41 cm 5 (a) 0 50 100 Distance from thalweg [m] 0 Max Depth [m] Elevation [m] Dmax, 3000 = 48 cm 150 Q [m3 sí] U [m sí] 10 10 10 Cf (b) U 0 300 Tb [Pa] Cf>í@ 0 0 100 (c) D [cm] 0 (d) 0 0 10 10 10 3 í Probability density p(Tb) [Paí] Q [m s ] í 10 í 10 í 10 í 10 (e) Tb exceedance [days/yr] 30 100 Tb [Pa] 300 100 30 10 dry walls wet walls 3 1 Q99 0.1 (f) 0 100 300 Tb [Pa] Figure 15: Cross section topography (a), flow characteristics (b-d), boundary shear stress probability density with γ ≈ 3 (e), and boundary shear stress complimentary cumulative distribution (f) at transect WANS27. 145 145 Dmax, 3000= 36 cm 10 Dmax, 99 = 13 cm (a) í 0 Max Depth [m] Elevation [m] 0 Distance from thalweg [m] Q [m3 sí] 0 10 (b) 0.08 0.06 Cf U 0 Tb [Pa] 10 Cf>í@ U [m sí] 10 0 (c) 100 D [cm] 0 (d) 0 0 10 10 10 3 í Probability density p(Tb) [Paí] Q [m s ] í 10 í 10 í 10 í 10 (e) Tb exceedance [days/yr] 30 Tb [Pa] 100 (f) 100 30 10 Q99 3 1 0.1 dry walls wet walls 0 100 Tb [Pa] Figure 16: Cross section topography (a), flow characteristics (b-d), boundary shear stress probability density with γ ≈ 1.8 (e), and boundary shear stress complimentary cumulative distribution (f) at transect WANS21. 146 146 10 Dmax, 3000 = 29 cm Dmax, 99 = 15 cm (a) í 0 Max Depth [m] Elevation [m] í 0 Distance from thalweg [m] Q [m3 sí] U [m sí] 10 10 (b) Cf U Tb [Pa] 0 Cf>í@ 0 10 0 (c) 100 D [cm] 0 (d) 30 10 0 0 10 10 10 3 í Probability density p(Tb) [Paí] Q [m s ] í 10 í 10 í 10 í 10 (e) Tb exceedance [days/yr] 30 Tb [Pa] 100 (f) 100 30 10 Q99 3 1 dry walls wet walls 0.1 0 100 Tb [Pa] Figure 17: Cross section topography (a), flow characteristics (b-d), boundary shear stress probability density with γ ≈ 2 (e), and boundary shear stress complimentary cumulative distribution (f) at transect WANS29. 147 147 10 Dmax, 3000 = 41 cm Dmax, 99 = 29 cm 5 (a) 195 0 Max Depth [m] Elevation [m] í 0 50 Distance from thalweg [m] Q [m3 sí] 0 10 10 10 Cf 0.15 0.1 (b) U Tb [Pa] 0 Cf>í@ U [m sí] 6 0.05 0 100 (c) D [cm] 0 (d) 0 0 10 10 10 3 í Probability density p(Tb) [Paí] Q [m s ] í 10 í 10 í 10 í 10 (e) Tb exceedance [days/yr] 30 100 Tb [Pa] 300 (f) 100 30 10 Q99 3 1 0.1 dry walls wet walls 0 50 100 150 Tb [Pa] Figure 18: Cross section topography (a), flow characteristics (b-d), boundary shear stress probability density with γ ≈ 3 (e), and boundary shear stress complimentary cumulative distribution (f) at transect WANS28. 148 148 6. Results 22 and Figures 9 through 18. Our results are summarized in Table ?? 2 shows the characteristics of each measured flow at each transect. Widths w Table 2?? are those measured directly in F2 imagery except for the 3000 m3 s−1 floods which was measured indirectly by mapping the differences between before-and-after imagery and by surveying high water marks in the field. Maximum depths Hmax for each flow are derived from the intersection of the measured widths with the surveyed transects. Flow speeds U for each flow at each transect come from the gauged discharge Q scaled by drainage area to the transect location and divided by the cross sectional area of the flow. Boundary shear stresses τb and grain sizes Dmax come from Equations 1 and 11 respectively. The grain size estimation is for the maximum flow depth and therefore represents the largest grain sizes that can move in the flow. However, it is a conservative estimate since we set 2 the Shields parameter τ ∗ equal to 0.07. Since the range of τ ∗ values typically quoted for incipient motion is from 0.03 to 0.07, the flows may be able to move particles more than twice the diamater that appears in the table. In some images, clouds or shadows obscured the view of the channel such that width measurement was impossible at one or more transects. For such cases, the table entries remain empty. Each of Figures 9 through 18 shows flow characteristics at a single transect. Box (a) of each figure is the surveyed channel cross section shown with five times vertical exaggeration. The dotted horizontal line represents the water level of the 99th percentile flow. The solid horizontal line represents the water level of the 3000 m3 s−1 flood. Noted 149 149 on each of these lines is our conservative estimate of the largest boulder diameter Dmax that can move in each of these flows using Equation 11. Boxes (b) through (d) of each figure show the variation of flow characteristics with discharge. Flow speeds U , shear stresses τb , and particle sizes Dmax match the values 22 Chezy friction coefficients Cf are defined as the ratio of τb and the presented in Table ??. product of ρ and U2 . Two curves are shown to relate τb and Q in box (c): in grey is a power law regression and in black is a piecewise cubic hermite interpolating polynomial (PCHIP), which makes no assumption of any functional behavior. Box (e) is the probability density function of τb derived from the conversion of the Q timeseries to a τb timeseries through the empirical relation of Q and τb from Box C. The grey PDF comes from the power law regression of the Q and τb points. The black PDF comes from the PCHIP interpolation. Box (f) in each figure is the complimentary cumulative distribution function, scaled to show the number of days each year that each value of τb is exceeded, with the grey distribution from the power law regression and the black from the PCHIP interpolation. The 99th percentile discharge is identified with a dotted horizontal line. A vertical dashed line shows the point at which the flow begins to inundate the channel walls. 7. Discussion 7.1. The utility of remote gauging The accuracy of a width-discharge rating curve, and of any discharge estimates that come from additional width measurements fit into such a curve, depends on a channel cross section that does not significantly change. However, we have shown that in a bedrock river with intermittent alluvial cover, the bed sediment may be reorganized by 150 150 intraannual floods. It is best, therefore, to collect rating information from an image series that spans a short period time, and to apply the resulting rating curve only to additional imagery from the same period so that the extent of change to the channel cross section is minimized. This is problem is not unique to remote gauging; traditional gauges in Taiwan are recalibrated and resurveyed at least annually to account for topographic change. Indeed, remote gauging is advantageous in this regard, since it provides an opportunity to construct a more robust rating curve by averaging over reaches [e.g. Smith et al., 1995]. By smoothing out changes in alluvial bed morphology, measures of inundation area per unit distance downstream (or mean inundation width) should remain a reliable indicator of discharge through longer periods of time than wetted channel widths at individual transects. A practical application of remote gauging of discharge includes the ability to fill gaps in a hydrograph from a traditional gauge, such as the gaps that appear in the discharge time series for our study river which occured when the gauge was out of service for several months following Typhoon Mı̆ndūlı̀ (shaded parts of the hydrograph in 55 Figure ??). The strength of remote gauging for mountain rivers, however, is its ability to provide empirical data on the spatiotemporal patterns of flow characteristics, such as estimates of hydraulic geometry, friction, flow speeds, and shear stress. Methods for reach-averaging of channel hydraulic properties have been developed [e.g. Wiele and Smith, 1996; Griffin et al., 2005] and could be used with our remote gauging data to collect reach-averaged boundary shear stresses, flow speeds, and frictions. However, since we are interested in understanding the variation of these properties, we focused on their values at individual transects and found, for example, flow speeds that tend to increase with discharge from 151 151 less than 1 m s−1 at low stage to more than 5 m s−1 during interdecadal floods. We also find Chezy friction coefficients Cf vary with discharge. However unlike flow speeds, friction coefficients vary much less predictably. We attribute this to the way the bed character changes along the Zhuókŏuxı̄, with patches of fine grained sediment, exposures of hummocky argillite bedrock, and piles of rounded quartzite boulders. In some parts of the channel, grain sizes are well-sorted. In other parts, they are mixed. Roughness character therfore varies both downstream and across each transect such that each flow encounters different roughnesses along the stream, and different flows feels different roughnesses at each transect. 7.2. Relative importance of flood magnitude and flood frequency The semi-heavy decay of the p(τb ) distribution suggests that differences in erosion rates may be a stronger function of flood frequency than flood magnitude; i.e., the absolute frequency of erosive events is likely the key rate factor rather than the relative frequency of extreme events. Snyder et al. [2003b], for example, present an estimate of boundary shear stress for a ≈ 50 year flood of Q ≈ 335 m3 s−1 in Fall Creek, a river in the Finger Lakes that has been eroding at approximately 0.14 mm y−1 for the past 1400 years, about 50 times slower than the similarly sized Zhuókŏuxı̄. With an assumption of Manning’s n = 0.05, they infer a boundary shear stress of τ ≈ 100 − 200 Pa during the Fall Creek 50 year flood. The similarly rare floods Zhuókŏuxı̄ have an order of magnitude greater discharge than Fall Creek; however, they tend to produce a τb only a factor of 2 greater than the Fall 22 which is insufficient to explain the large difference erosion rates Creek flood (Table ??), of these two rivers. However, the semi-heavy shear stress PDF tail distributions reflect the fact that along the Zhuókŏuxı̄, shear stresses similar to those driven by the Fall Creek 152 152 50 year flood are attained at least annually at many transects. That is, a difference in the frequency of erosively significant floods approximately matches, and may explain, the difference in erosion rates. 7.3. Width and planform evolution The ability to measure the boundary shear stress distribution at any transect for which the cross-sectional geometry is known enables comparisons not just between catchments 22 illustrates this point, since widths, depths, velocbut also along a single reach. Table ?? ities, and shear stresses all vary along stream during each flow as water is stretched and squeezed through parts of the channel with different geometric and frictional characteristics. It is of particular interest that the Zhuókŏuxı̄ actively meanders, indicative of a longterm along-stream variation of bank erosion rates. For insight into how this may be accomplished, we focus on transects SHTO20 through WANS28, which are located around a series of meander bends with channel geometry that varies significantly around each point of inflection (Figures 9 through 18). Lateral erosion requires a flow which is at least deep enough to inundate the channel walls. With this in mind, when surveying the transect cross sections, we noted the point at which the flow begins to inundate the channel wall, commonly clearly marked in the topography as a sharp break in slope. Table 3 summarizes the hydraulic geometry at each transect for the flow which reaches this point, that is, the flow which marks the initiation of wall inundation. It is apparent from the discharge percentiles in Table 3 that each transect begins to experience wall inundation during flows of different magnitudes and frequencies; flows which do not even touch the walls at one transect may do a significant amount of work 153 153 Table 3: Flow characteristics at the initiation of channel wall inundation. Q, w, H, and τb are associated with the minimum flow required for wall inundation. ID w H τb § Q† Q% † [m] [m] [Pa] m3 s−1 [%] SHTO20 76 2.3 50 76 90.5 WANS23 96 2.2 85 666 99.4 WANS24 125 2.9 152 WANS25 40 1.3 § 90 1665 99.9 7 45.0 WANS26 114 3.3 158 249 97.4 WANS20 60 3.2 110 433 98.6 WANS27 142 8.1 231 539 99.1 WANS21 52 3.1 68 94 92.3 WANS29 81 3.6 73 356 98.2 WANS28 67 3.4 97 150 95.2 τb is computed with equation 1 using the w and H of the cross section that correspond to the field-surveyed point where wall inundation initiates. † Q̃ and Q% come from the rating of width measured in satellite images and Dajin Q scaled by relative drainage area to each transect. 154 154 on the walls at another. If the frequency of wall inundation correlates with channel curvature over long timescales, then the longitudinal variation of channel cross section could contribute to the development of sinuosity. On this reach, such correlation now exists only around some bends, but it is important to consider that the conditions we observe only apply to the short timescale over which we conducted our study. We do not yet have theory or observations to relate these modern longitudinal variations in wall inundation frequency to the long term pattern. Nonetheless, channel geometry clearly plays an important role in setting the along stream variation of horizontal erosion at least in the short term. This observation and our measurments of the range of flows that do and do not affect the channel walls are important empirical constraints for recent models of channel erosion that assess the ways that vertical and horizontal erosion contribute to meandering processes in bedrock rivers [e.g. Stark et al., 2008]. 7.4. Effects of intraannual and interdecadal floods Landslides can occur during a typhoon as heavy rain infiltrates the valley walls, increasing pore fluid pressures and reducing shear resistance to failure. Alternatively, flow in the channel driven by the storm may be powerful enough to undercut the valley walls, causing them to oversteepen and fail. Incising rivers that actively meander tend to have asymmetric valleys, the result of outward migration at each bend which drives slope instability and failure of the outer bank and leaves behind a slip-off slope on the inner bank [e.g. Mahard , 1942]. The Zhuókŏuxı̄ is a typical example, with cutbanks that are steep and prone to failure and slip-off slopes that are very gentle, indicating rapid outward migration at the meander bends relative to incision. However, steep slopes also occur on this river at sinuosity nodes and at the outside of abandoned loops. Infiltration of heavy rain 155 155 sufficient to cause landslides should affect all of these steep slopes equally, irrespective of where they lie along the channel, provided consistent lithological, soil, and vegetation conditions; however the landslides of typhoons Mı̆ndūlı̀ and Hăitáng occurred exclusively at the outer bends of the active channel, precisely where lateral erosion is expected to be fastest on a meandering river. This indicates that the storm-induced slope failures were not caused by infiltration of the rain alone, but instead by undercutting of the deep flow. We interpret this as direct evidence of concentrated lateral erosion and meander growth during the interdecadal floods. At Shétóushān, for example, flow-induced landsliding was accomplished with a significant change in the position of the main thread of the channel. Prior to Mı̆ndūlı̀ and Hăitáng, the main thread of the channel at this bend was in the middle of a 200 m wide channel (Figure 2c,d). A second thread along the outer wall had been abandoned, and an elevated bar between this abandoned outer thread and the active inner thread was fully vegetated, indicating its immunity from intraannual floods. During the interdecadal typhoon floods, the vegetated bar was eliminated and its sediment redistributed and possibly transported downstream, the inner thread was abandoned and filled with alluvium, and the outer thread was reoccupied and re-established as the main thread. Only in this position could the river once again attack the outer wall and produce landslides. Bedrock was exposed in the main thread prior to the interdecadal typhoon floods and is visible in the SPOT image (Figure 2c,d). This supports our results which indicate an ability of intraannual floods to produce shear stresses sufficient to move bed sediment and attack bedrock. In the time after the two interdecadal typhoon floods, we have continued to observe shifts in the position of the main thread all along the study reach, which also 156 156 indicates this ability of intraannual discharges to move bed sediment. At Lower Wànshān, for example, our air photos show gradual changes in channel planform in the absence of extreme discharge (Figure 4c,d). As this continues, bedrock will be exposed and covered along different threads at different times, such even without completely clearing the bed sediment, the river will eventually attack and lower all parts of its bed under intraannual conditions. These observations of bed erosion ocurring during normal to intraannual flows and bank erosion during the interdecadal floods are fully consistent with Hartshorn et al. [2002], who monitored the erosion of bedrock at a transect of the Lı̀wù river in northeastern Taiwan. They measured with submillimeter precision erosion of the bed during normal flow conditions but not during the interdecadal flood associated with Typhoon Bilis in 2000. During that event, only erosion of the walls occurred. Turowski et al. [2008] argued that alluviation of the bed, which is nearly complete during extreme events, is likely responsible for this, since the cover of sediment protects the bed but not the banks. Our results confirm that lower stage flows do indeed drive boundary shear stresses sufficient to excavate this sediment and accomplish the observed bed erosion, and that interdecadal floods are both powerful enough and deep enough to cut into the channel banks. 8. Conclusions Wall erosion is evident in a series of landslides that were inuduced at the outer meander bends during interdecadal scale floods, and vertical incision is likely to occur as the main flow thread migrates across the valley exposing bedrock during moderate to intraannual flows. The variation in lateral erosion rates along stream is also a function of channel morphology, which influences the depth of flow required to wet the banks and therefore 157 157 also the frequency with which the banks are wet, the depth to which they are underwater, and the resulting shear stresses acting on the wall. Thus our first conclusion is that the relative rates of horizontal and vertical erosion depends on the frequency of extreme floods and the channel geometry. The second conclusion is that remote gauging is possible in small upland catchments through a combination of high resolution VNIR satellite imagery, topographic data, stage records, and limited field mapping, and it provides empirical data on the spatiotemporal variation of flow characteristics. The heavy-tailed distribution of discharge, which comes from the huge variability of flows from nearly zero during the dry season to deep floods during my monsoon and typhoon storms, produces a boundary shear stress PDF with only a semi-heavy tail; although intraannual floods have significanly smaller discharges, they have shear stresses that are similar to those driven by extreme floods. The boundary shear stresses of intraannual floods are even sufficient to move much of the bed sediment and likely also to erode bedrock. Flow speeds U vary with discharge and exceed 5 m s−1 during the extreme floods at many transects of our study river in Taiwan, and they vary along the river during any given flow due to changes in slope and cross sectional geometry. Chezy friction coefficients Cf also vary with discharge, but irregularly due to the different roughnesses felt by flows of different depths over the thin and intermittent alluvial cover with variable sorting along the channel and through time. In general these findings indicate that Taiwan’s unusually rapid rates of erosion and disproportionate contribution of sediment to the ocean result from processes that are unusual in their frequency, with the magnitude of intraannual floods in a Taiwanese river matching that of interdecadal floods in a slowly eroding but similarly sized river in the 158 158 northeastern United States. However, the processes in Taiwan are not unusual in their magnitudes; the interdecadal discharges in Taiwan have boundary shear stresses that are not much greater than the intraannual floods. This study helps to address the paucity of empirical data on bedrock channels by providing such data for a rapidly evolving river in Taiwan, and by describing a methodology for its acquisition. Future application of our methodology to rivers in other environments will provide insights into and better constraints on bedrock channel dynamics by delivering the data needed to understand the spatiotemporal distribution of erosion along a mountain river and to constrain models of bedrock channel dynamics. Acknowledgments. This study was supported by the National Science Foundation through SGER EAR 05-50087 and GLD EAR 06-17557, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration through ESSF NGT5-30532 and NAG5-13772, and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. The authors thank G.-R. He, W.-L. Lee, W.-Y. Lai and the Maolin Municipal Fire Department for assistance in the field, and J. Turowski and N. Hovius for engaging discussions and thoughtful suggestions. 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Chen, Estimation of river discharge from nontrapezoidal open channel using QuickBird-2 satellite imagery, Hydrological Sciences, 49 (2), 247–260, 2004. 163 163 CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS 164 thesis comprises a collection of observations analyses of the ThisThis thesis comprises a collection of observations and and analyses of the morphology of of bedrock channels andand their flood flows. It focuses on on thethe rivers morphology bedrock channels their flood flows. It focuses rivers that that drain drainthe theisland islandmountains mountainsofofthe thewestern westernNorth NorthPacific PacificOcean, Ocean,where wheretropical tropical cyclones dominate cyclones regional trends in climate. dominate regional trends in climate. The first chapter reviews literature on incised meanders and meander theory to show that meandering is common along bedrock rivers and has consequences for landscape morphology and its interpretation. Meandering occurs through secondary flow currents which advect momentum to the outside of each bend, enhancing outwardly directed erosion and driving bend growth. Meander growth reduces the channel slope, and it can influence incision rates, distort the scaling of channel slope with upstream drainage area, and feed back on the meandering process. If the planform geometry is mistakenly assumed to be static, meandering can invalidate inferences of tectonics and climate from channel and catchment morphology. The second chapter shows that regionalized measurements of sinuosity for ensembles of rivers, incising through broadly similar lithologies, correlate with the statistics of rainfall and discharge that describe the frequency and relative intensity of floods; for the study areas considered here, the relative intensity and frequency of floods are controlled primarily by the pattern of tropical cyclone strikes. The correlation of sinuosity and measures of relative flood statistics implies that if loop cutoffs are the only mechanism that resets sinuosity, then areas with straighter channels and no cutoffs, like Borneo, must have slower rates of lateral cutting, but that given sufficient time, continued sinuosity growth will proceed to the cutoff 165 limit everywhere. A problem with this interpretation, however, is that the landscapes in question have been evolving for millions of years and have undergone kilometers of exhumation; if meanders are limited only by cutoffs, all of the rivers in these areas should have sinuous planforms and many abandoned loops by now. Most rivers, particularly in the low sinuosity areas like Borneo and New Guinea, exhibit no cutoffs at all, which suggests that loop cutoffs are not the only way sinuosity or its rate of development can be reduced. Instead, another limit to meandering may be imposed by the timescale of drainage network reorganization which could serve to reset (or “anneal”) sinuosity periodically; in this case, the sinuosity today reflects the rate of meander development relative to the frequency of resetting. A second interpretation is that meandering is a selflimited process, slowing down asymptotically as slopes decrease with bend growth and reduce wall erosion rates. If so, then the sinuosity we see now along matured channels is that which developed prior to reaching the asymptotic limit, and scatter in the correlations of sinuosity and statistics of rainfall, discharge, and storm frequency may be due in part to a mismatch between the trends of present-day climate, and those that existed when the meanders formed. In any case, the strength of the correlation and the timescale of meander development (tens to hundreds of thousands of years) together suggest that the pattern of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific remains relatively consistent through climate cycles; the cyclone basin may swell and contract, or it may shift along lines of latitude toward and away from the Eurasian continental 166 166 margin, but a trend is maintained in which the frequency of storms peaks in Taiwan and Luzon and decreases toward the pole and equator. The third chapter looks in detail at the dynamics of these river channels. It demonstrates how to remotely gauge narrow incising channels of uplifting mountains with the right combination of river gauge data, channel topography, and high-resolution satellite imagery to acquire measurements of variables that are important for understanding bedrock river erosion processes such as hydraulic geometry, mean boundary shear stress, flow speed, friction, and incipient particle motion, as well as how each of these variables changes downstream. Comparisons of discharge and boundary shear stress at transects of the ZhuókǂuxƯ, a rapidly eroding river in Taiwan, reveal a consistent relationship that has approximately power-law scaling, which transforms heavy-tailed magnitude-frequency distributions of discharge into steeper, lighter-tailed distributions of boundary shear stress; discharge during extreme storms on this river peak two orders of magnitude above mean flow but drive shear stresses only one order of magnitude greater than average. We gain further insight through a comparison of the Taiwanese river to a similar-size river in the northeastern United States that is eroding 50 times more slowly: the extreme flood shear stress magnitudes differ by only a factor 2, but the shear stresses driven by a 50-year event on the slowly eroding US river occur semiannually in the Taiwanese channel. Very strong nonlinearity in the relationship of boundary shear stress and erosion is required if extreme flood magnitudes are to explain the difference in erosion rates of these 167 167 two rivers; instead, differences in the frequency of erosive floods, which does not require such strong nonlinearity, is a more likely explanation. The third chapter also presents empirical data on how longitudinal variation in channel geometry interacts with the distributions of discharge and shear stress to modulate the frequency of wall inundation: with simple crosssectional geometry, constant slope, and uniform friction, the frequency of wall inundation and depth of wall-inundating flows both decrease with channel width. For a fixed slope, uniform friction, and a stationary distribution of discharge, narrow reaches should therefore erode laterally more quickly than wider reaches in a feedback which tends to maintain an equilibrium channel width over long timescales. Cross-sectional variation may contribute to meandering if over the timescales of meander development, channels tend to narrow around the bends where lateral erosion is presumably fastest. In general, however, we see the opposite, with meander bends occupied by the widest transects. An alternative explanation is that cross-sectional asymmetry can increase the outer wall inundation frequency, regardless of channel width. The asymmetry required to boost outer wall inundation frequency this way is consistent with the asymmetry we tend to see along incised meanders. Together these conclusions suggest that the frequency and magnitude of erosive flood discharges have important consequences for the morphology of bedrock channels and mountain landscapes: predictions from meander theory (Chapter 1) and observations across the western North Pacific (Chapter 2) indicate that lateral cutting and meandering is a function of the relative magnitude of the 168 168 extreme floods, and is modulated by channel morphology (Chapter 3), while observations from a river in Taiwan indicate that the catchment-wide erosion rate is controlled by the relative frequency of erosive discharges (Chapter 3). These conclusions suggest that catchment-wide erosion requires sufficiently high shear stress flows to move coarse bedload and cause wear on the channel boundary; however, the discharges that do work on the bed do not necessarily contribute to lateral cutting along meanders, since sinuosity growth requires sufficiently deep flows to establish secondary flow currents that are erosive at the outer bends. The results and conclusions of this thesis suggest several directions for future work by illuminating a range of open questions about the processes active in bedrock channels. For example: 1. We lack empirical constraints and model-based statistics on flow asymmetry around meander bends and its variation with discharge. Such data would be useful for testing the assumption that meandering in bedrock has the same hydrodynamic control as meandering in alluvium predicted by meander bend theories, and it would provide additional evidence to evaluate the functional dependence of lateral cutting on discharge. 2. If secondary currents are the origin of faster downstream flow speeds at the outside of meander bends, and therefore the root cause of meandering, then any disruption of the secondary flow will diminish the rate of meandering. One possibility is that roughness in the channel bed, for example from 169 169 boulders or bed topography, could affect the establishment of secondary flow currents. However, we lack observations and theory of how the roughness relative to the flow depth relates to the planform evolution of incising rivers. 3. We also lack theory to explain the dependence of meandering on lithology and rock strength. Faster meandering in weaker rocks relative to thalweg lowering rates indicates that vertical and horizontal erosion rates have different dependencies on erodibility, but how and why remain unclear. Boundary roughness could be a key connection between lithology and meander activity if meandering slows with relative roughness, and if the roughness height-scale is lithologically controlled. Observations of the roughness height-scale in channels through a range of rock types will help to establish whether or not lithologically or structurally controlled roughness explains the qualitative correlation of sinuosity development and substrate weakness. 4. The conclusion in the second chapter that processes other than loop cutoffs limit meandering is inferred indirectly from the correlation of regionalscale sinuosity and rainfall, discharge, and storm track statistics. Without any direct observations of these other limiting processes, we are currently unable to identify with certainty the source of the limitation. Comparisons of channel slope and indicators of meander activity for a given discharge 170 170 distribution, for example, may help to determine whether or not slope reduction slows meandering, but only in combination with observations of roughness, erodibility, and channel cross section, and a better understanding of how each of these contributes to the rate of wall erosion. Furthermore, if the sinuosity limitation is an effect of slope reduction, then rivers may continue to meander if the meander-driven slope reduction is accommodated by channel narrowing, enhancement of transect asymmetry, or steepening within the catchment, each of which has yet to be tested with observations or theory. 5. The inference that erosion rate is a greater function of erosive flood frequency than it is of the extreme flood discharge also requires further testing, which can be accomplished through the evaluation of available stage records, channel slopes, and channel cross-sections at gauge locations along bedrock rivers with known (or measurable) erosion rates. However, results will be more robust following the methodology outlined in the manuscripts of Chapter 3 using gauged discharge, satellite imagery, and topographic surveys (or, very high resolution digital topography) to assess conditions and their changes, since a single transect at the gauge may not be representative of the rest of the reach. 6. The results presented in Chapter 3 show clearly that wall inundation frequency varies downstream with channel geometry. A correlation of 171 171 inundation frequency and planform curvature would support the hypothesis that longitudinal variation in transect geometry contributes to meandering. However, for the limited number of meander bends included in the analysis, the correlation is weak at best. Similar measurements of wall inundation frequency along other actively meandering rivers will help to clarify the importance of this effect in setting the longitudinal variation in wall erosion rates that meandering requires. 172 172
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