DPI-421
Power Shifts: Understanding Global Change through History
Fall 2016
Tuesday and Thursday, 2.45pm-4.00pm, L130
Review Sessions: (non-compulsory) Every second Friday (outlined
in the following), 2.45pm-4pm, Belfer L1 (Weil Town Hall)
Book Discussion Sessions (non-compulsory): Friday the 9/16, 10/14,
12/02, at 2.45pm-4pm, Belfer L1 (Weil Town Hall)
Professor Arne Westad
ST Lee Professor of US-Asia Relations
124 Mt. Auburn St. Suite 200N-256
Email: [email protected]
Office hours: Tuesday, 10am-12pm
Course Assistant: David Allen
Email: [email protected]
Faculty Assistant: Jennifer Valois
Email: [email protected]
1
Course outline
Nobody can understand the present without a keen understanding
of the past. After all, history is all we have to go on in providing the
resources for making sense of the world we live in. Successful
policymakers often understand this and turn a view of the past to
their advantage in interpreting the present. They understand how
any good strategy is grounded in a sound view of history.
History and historical methodologies can give policymakers a
keener appreciation of what is possible to do, but also of what
must be avoided and what needs to be changed. History is mainly
about change; relentless, often confusing processes, over which
individuals, communities, and even states seemingly have little
say. But by studying change at key points in human history, we can
prepare ourselves better for taking charge of our future, and for
promoting or steering change when needed.
This course looks at major shifts in history from European and
Asian antiquity up to today. It looks at power in all its dimensions –
material, demographic, technological, ideological, military, or
religious – and shows how it has influenced and been influenced by
major transformations in global history. Our aim is to better
identify the key causes of power shifts, but also to get an
impression of the fickleness of established orders in times of
tectonic change.
2
Introductory books
These four books have had a tremendous impact on how people
understand issues of power shifts in international affairs. They are
extensive, provocative, and not always consistent. As such, they
are recommended reading for the course, and we will do four
sessions – one for each book – in which we will discuss the main
ideas contained in them. These sessions will be led by Professor
Westad, and they are non-obligatory. You will not be graded on
participation. But they are highly recommended for getting a
better understanding of what power shifts debates are all about.
Kennedy, Paul M. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers:
Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. New
York, NY: Random House, 1987.
Acemoglu, Daron, and James A. Robinson. Why Nations Fail:
The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. New York: Crown
Publishers, 2012.
Darwin, John. After Tamerlane: The Rise and Fall of Global
Empires, 1400-2000. New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2009.
Morris, Ian. Why the West Rules-- for Now: The Patterns of
History, and What They Reveal about the Future. New York: Farrar,
Straus and Giroux, 2010.
Required reading
Nye, Joseph. Is the American Century Over? Cambridge, UK:
Polity Press, 2015
3
Teaching
Two weekly sessions, dealing with the same topic, with the first
session mainly in a lecture format and the second in a discussion
format. Every second week the TF will organize a review session,
mainly intended to help students select topics for and organize
their papers. In addition, four discussion sessions on topics from
the introductory books have been scheduled throughout the
semester.
NOTE: 9/29 lecture will be held at 8.45am-10am in Land Lecture
Hall, B-400. Video recording of the session will be made
available on Canvas
Assessment
Two short papers of up to 1,500 words each, with each paper
dealing with one of the weekly discussion questions. Each will
count for 20% of the final grade.
First short paper due date: 9/27 at 5pm, please upload paper on
Canvas
Second short paper due date: 11/8 at 5.00pm, please upload on
Canvas
One major class paper of up to 5,000 words for students who have
presented in class, or 7,000 words for students who have not. The
paper should apply lessons from one of the cases discussed in class
on the current relationship between the United States and China.
The major paper counts for 45% of the final grade.
Major paper due date: 12/11 at 5.00pm, please upload on Canvas.
Class participation counts for 15% of the final grade. Brief
interventions that are to the point, well-informed, and linked to the
week’s readings will pay off.
4
Academic Integrity
All written work for this course must be appropriately referenced.
Students seeking guidance regarding proper citation and academic
honesty should refer to the Harvard Kennedy School Academic
Code. The School takes academic integrity seriously, and any
violations could have serious consequences, such as failing the
course and expulsion. If you still have questions as to whether or
not you have used citation properly, please speak with the
instructors before turning in your written assignment.
5
Class outline
1. What are power shifts?
Lecture: 9/1; Seminar: 9/6
Reading:
• Mann, Michael. The Sources of Social Power. New York:
Cambridge University Press, 2012, I:1-33
• Organski, A. F. K. World Politics, 2. Edition. New York, Knopf,
1968, 338-376
• Walt, Stephen M. The End of the American Era. Washington,
DC: National Interest, 2011, 116: 6-16.
2. Athens, Sparta, and (possibly) Persia
Why did the Peloponnesian War break out?
Lecture: 9/8; Review Session: 9/9; Seminar: 9/13;
Presentations: A Spartan and an Athenian in 400BC
Reading:
• Thucydides, Robert B. Strassler, and Richard Crawley. The
Landmark Thucydides: A Comprehensive Guide to the
Peloponnesian War. New York: Free Press, 1996, vol. 1.
• Hanson, Victor Davis. A War like No Other: How the Athenians
and Spartans Fought the Peloponnesian War. New York:
Random House, 2005, Ch. 1.
3. The Rise and Fall of Rome
Why did the Roman Empire collapse?
Lecture: 9/15; Book Session: 9/16; Seminar: 9/20;
Presentations: Stilicho and Alaric in 400AD
Reading:
• Kagan, Donald. Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire: Why
Did It Collapse? Boston: Heath, 1962, 1-97
6
4. The Han Empire and the Making of China
Why did the concept of China survive the Han?
Lecture: 9/22; Review Session: 9/23; Seminar: 9/27
Presentation: Emperor Wen of Sui on his mission (around 600AD)
Reading:
• Sima, Qian, and Burton Watson. Records of the Grand
Historian: Han Dynasty I. New York: Columbia University
Press, 1993, 51-88
• Holcombe, Charles. The Genesis of East Asia, 221 B.C.-A.D.
907. Honolulu: Association for Asian Studies and University of
Hawai'i Press, 2001, 8-77
• Wright, Arthur F. The Sui Dynasty. New York: Knopf, 1979, 320
FIRST SHORT PAPER DUE: 9/27 at 5.00pm, please upload on
Canvas.
5. Religion: The Rise of Islam
Why did Islam expand as rapidly as it did?
Lecture: 9/29; Book Session: 9/30; Seminar: 10/4
NOTE: 9/29 lecture will be held at 8.45am-10am in Land Lecture
Hall, B-400
Presentation: Abd al-Malik ibn Marwān on why Islam succeeded
(700AD)
Reading:
• Donner, Fred McGraw. Muhammad and the Believers: At the
Origins of Islam. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard
University Press, 2010, 1-144
• Robinson, Chase, The First Islamic Empire, ed. Bang, Peter F.,
and Walter Scheidel. The Oxford Handbook of the State in the
Ancient Near East and Mediterranean. New York: Oxford
University Press, 2013.
7
• Davison, Derek, “The Caliphate of Abd al-Malik (685-705),”
blog-post at https://attwiw.com/2014/01/22/islamic-historypart-16-the-caliphate-of-abd-al-malik-685-705/
6. Trade: The Portuguese and Dutch
What made Portuguese and Dutch expansion different?
Lecture: 10/6; Review Session: 10/7; Seminar: 10/11;
Presentation: VOC Director General on the aims of his company
anno 1650
Reading:
• Smith, Alan K. Creating a World Economy: Merchant Capital,
Colonialism, and World Trade, 1400-1825. Boulder: Westview
Press, 1991, 95-108
• Bernstein, William J. A Splendid Exchange: How Trade Shaped
the World. New York: Atlantic Monthly Press, 2008, 214-240
• Disney, A. R. A History of Portugal and the Portuguese Empire:
From Beginnings to 1807. New York: Cambridge University
Press, 2009, I: 143-163
• Newitt, M. D. D. A History of Portuguese Overseas Expansion,
1400-1668. London: New York, 2005, 252-274
7. The Rise and Fall of the Spanish Empire
Why did Spain not remain the predominant global power?
Lecture: 10/13; Book Session: 10/14; Seminar: 10/18
Presentation: Philip II: My strategy
Reading:
• Kennedy, Paul M. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers:
Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000.
New York, NY: Random House, 1987, Ch. 2
• Elliott, J. H. Spain and Its World, 1500-1700: Selected Essays.
New Haven: Yale University Press, 1989, 7-26; 217-240
8
• Parker, Geoffrey. The Grand Strategy of Philip II. New Haven:
Yale University Press, 1998, 1-10; 281-296
8. Why Britain?
Why did Britain become the main imperial power in the 18th and 19th
centuries?
Lecture: 10/20; Review Session: 10/21; Seminar: 10/25;
Presentation: Palmerston on Britain’s interests
Reading:
• Ferguson, Niall. Empire: The Rise and Demise of the British
World Order and the Lessons for Global Power. New York:
Basic Books, 2003, ch. 1
• Pomeranz, Kenneth. The Great Divergence: China, Europe,
and the Making of the Modern World Economy. Princeton, NJ:
Princeton University Press, 2000, 285-297
• Kennedy, Paul M. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers:
Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000.
New York, NY: Random House, 1987, Ch. 4
• Palmerston, Henry John Temple, and George Henry Francis.
Opinions and Policy of Viscount Palmerston, as Minister,
Diplomatist, and Statesman. London: Colburn and Co., 1852,
246-249
9. World War I and Its Effects
What were the main effects of World War I?
Lecture: 10/27; Book Session: 10/28; Seminar: 11/1
Presentation: Lenin & Hitler on the significance of World War I
Reading:
• Stevenson, D. Cataclysm: The First World War as Political
Tragedy. New York: Basic Books, 2004, 3-35
9
• Ferguson, Niall. The Pity of War. New York, NY: Basic Books,
1999, 433-462
• Rosecrance, Richard N., and Steven E. Miller. The next Great
War?: The Roots of World War I and the Risk of U.S.-China
Conflict. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2014, ix-xxiii
10. The Cold War
Did the United States win the Cold War?
Lecture: 11/3; Review Session: 11/4; Seminar: 11/8;
Presentation: Leonid Brezhnev on the causes of the Cold War
Reading:
• Westad, O. A. Worlds Apart: The Cold War in the 20th Century.
New York: Basic Books, 2017
• Waltz, Kenneth N. Theory of International Politics. Boston,
MA: McGraw-Hill, 1974, 194-210.
SECOND SHORT PAPER DUE: 11/8 at 5.00pm, please upload on
Canvas
11. US Power Today
Is the American Century Over?
Lecture: 11/10; Seminar: 11/15
Presentation: How to exercise US power abroad, by the presidentelect
Reading:
• Nye, Joseph. Is the American Century Over? Cambridge, UK:
Polity Press, 2015
12. The Rise of China
Will China be the next global superpower?
Lecture: 11/17; Review Session: 11/18; Seminar: 11/22
10
Presentation: The capacity and constraint of Chinese power, by Xi
Jinping’s successor
Reading:
• Allison, Graham. “The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and
China Headed for War?,” The Atlantic, September 24, 2015
• Li, Eric X. “China and the World.” Survival Vol. 57, no. 2
(March 4, 2015): 235–40
• Friedberg, Aaron L. “The Debate Over US China Strategy.”
Survival Vol. 57, no. 3 (May 4, 2015): 89–110
• Westad, Odd Arne. Restless Empire: China and the World since
1750. New York: Basic Books, 2015, 439-469
13. Future Shifts
How can history best be used to understand the future?
Lecture: 11/29; Seminar: 12/1
Reading:
• Neustadt, Richard and May, E. Thinking in Time. New York:
The Free Press, 1988, xi-xxii; 75-90
• Gaddis, John Lewis. The Landscape of History: How Historians
Map the past. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002, 129-151
• Judt, Tony. When the Facts Change. New York: Penguin
Press, 2015, Ch. 20
• MacMillan, Margaret. The Uses and Abuses of History.
Toronto: Viking Canada, 2008, 155-183
• Tetlock, Philip E., Richard Ned. Lebow, and Geoffrey Parker.
Unmaking the West: "what-if?" Scenarios That Rewrite World
History. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2006, 363392
11