FERTILITY DECLINE TO HARNESS THE
DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND IN KENYA
ECONOMIC REFORMS
HEALTH
FAMI LY
P L A N N IN G
DEMOGRAPHIC
DIVIDEND
The demographic dividend is the economic benefit that arises from a significant increase in the ratio of
EDUCATION
working-age adults relative to young dependents if accompanied by simultaneous investments in education and
governance
skills development, health, economic reforms and job creation, and good governance.
The average number of children per woman (Total Fertility Rate), has been on the
decline although it remains higher than the 2030 target.
1978
1998
8.1
2009
4.7
2014
4.6
2030 Target
3.9
2.6
In comparison with Malaysia, sustained high fertility in Kenya has resulted in rapid population
growth and a young age structure dominated by child dependents.
Children Per Woman
Child Dependency burden
8.1
1960
6.0
3.9
2015
2.0
Kenya
1960
93.1
2015
75.8
1960
2015
35.2
2015
Kenya
Malaysia
Malaysia
1969
11 million
TOTAL POPULATION
1960
89.1
2014
43 million
If Kenya’s fertility declines rapidly, it’s age structure will change and there will be more people in the working-ages relative to dependents.
This can open the window of opportunity to harness the demographic dividend.
How can we facilitate this rapid fertility decline?
1
Enhancing use and access to effective contraceptive services and information to facilitate family planning.
The country has to redouble
efforts to increase use of modern
contraceptives to attain the
Population Policy 2030 target.
The number of women who want
to stop childbearing but are
not using a modern contraceptive
is high.
Use of modern family planning methods
among women of reproductive age
(15-49) who are married or in union.
53%
70%
2014
2030 Target
18%
Unmet need for family planning
in 2014.
National Average
Improving child survival since parents are more likely to choose to have smaller families if their children have a
good chance of survival to adulthood.
2
Despite a steady decline in
childhood mortality in the country
over the last decade, the rates
are still too high and intensive
efforts are required to reach the
Kenya Health Policy targets.
3
Infant Mortality Rate
(Deaths per 1,000 live births)
Under-five Mortality Rate
(Deaths per 1,000 live births)
39
20
2014
2030 Target
52
24
2014
2030 Target
Supporting and reinforcing girls’ education to delay child marriages and childbearing.
Child marriages are still common
in Kenya hence there is need for
enforcement of the minimal age
of marriage as stipulated in The
Marriage Act 2014.
Proportion of women 25-49 years
married by 18 years, 2008/9
Early childbearing that
contributes to rapid population
growth is also high. It is estimated
that delaying marriage and child
bearing can slow population
growth by as much as 15-20 percent.
5.7%
9.7%
Urban
Rural
20.5%
35.9%
Urban
Rural
17.3%
18.5%
Urban
Rural
Proportion of women 25-49 years
married by 15 years, 2008/9
Proportion of teenagers (15-19 years)
who have begun childbearing, 2014
Up to 13,000 girls in Kenya leave school
every year due to pregnancy.
Keeping girls in school for one extra
year can increase their wages by
10-20 percent.
DATASOURCES
John Bongaarts. (2009). “Population growth and policy options in Sub-Saharan Africa”. Presentation at special session at the Population
Association of America Annual Meeting, 2009.
Judith Bruce and Erica Chong. (2006). the diverse universe of adolescents, and the girls and boys left behind: A note on research, program and policy priorities
(Background paper to Public choices, private decisions: Sexual and reproductive health and the Millennium Development Goals). UN Millennium Project, NY USA.
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. (2015). Kenya Economic Survey 2015.
Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2008/09.
Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2014.
Republic of Kenya. (2014). Kenya Health Policy 2014-2030. Nairobi, Kenya: Republic of Kenya, Ministry of Health.
Republic of Kenya. (2013). Kenya Population Situation Analysis. National Council for Population and Development (NCPD). Nairobi, Kenya.
Republic of Kenya. (2012). Sessional Paper No. 3 of 2012 on Population Policy for National Development. National Council for Population and Development (NCPD)
and the Ministry of State for Planning, National Development and Vision 2030. Nairobi, Kenya.
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.