2017 POSITIVE FARMERS CONFERENCE
Day 1 – Session 1
Better Farming. Better Business. Better Living.
POSITIVE FARMERS
CONFERENCE 2017
The Global Water Story
Michael Murphy
Positive Farmers
Better Farming Better Business Better Living
0
The Water Story
Emerging Competitive Advantage for
Water Rich Countries
Is the human race sleepwalking
towards disaster?
Interesting and Important data
2015 was not only the warmest year on record, but
broke the record by the largest margin by which the
record has been broken.
2016 replaced 2015 as the warmest year on record
And again broke the record for the largest yearly
increase
Global Mean Temperature 2016 (Jan-June)
World Population Growth
Through History
Food Supply: A Global Challenge
World Population
(Billion)
1950
2.5
1975
4.1
2000
6.1
2017
7.4
2050
9.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Last 100 Years
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Amazing population growth
Facilitated by medical advance
Cheap food, driven by cheap energy
21st Century – struggle for resources
• – food, water, minerals etc?
Changing Demographics
World Population
1950
2100
2.5 bl
10.2 bl???
Estimates of 2100 from 6 bl - 16 bl
% of World Population
1950
2100
World Population
Africa
Europe
9%
33%
22%
7%
Growth in Population
Water Use Globally – McKinsey
Total
Billion Cubic Metres
2009
2030
4500
6900
Agricultural 3100 (71%) 4500 (65%)
Water will increasingly become a scarce & valuable resource
McKinsey estimates to avert huge water crisis
$200bl US needed to be invested/year
Now only approx one third of this figure
Aquifers
• 1000 tonnes of water produces 1 tonne wheat – value
$200
• 1000 tonnes of water in industry – value $14,000
• Towns must receive a supply of water
Shortfall hits agriculture first
Drops 60% on wheat yields
Aquifers
• More than 2 billion people rely on aquifers as their
primary water source.
• Population growth and agriculture are putting
unsustainable demands on the world’s largest
aquifer systems
• Water reserves in 21 of the 37 largest aquifers have
declined since 2003
Asia and Africa – Majority of World
Population 76% now and growing rapidly
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Agriculture accounts for 90% of freshwater withdrawals
in S. Asia
Aquifer depletion in Asia has reduced water availability
per capita by over half
Withdrawals in W. Africa far exceed natural
replacement levels
Africa
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•
•
•
25 out of the 57 countries will face either water stress or
scarcity by 2025
Over 300 million lack access to clean water
Sub Saharan Africa is much worse with over 51%
without safe water and 41% without adequate sanitation
Agriculture accounts for 88% of all groundwater
removed
Politics
Often politics and war can play a role in water
contamination and mass movement of people increasing
the likelihood of water stress e.g. Syria
The Global Risks of Highest Concerns (2016)
Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2015, World Economic Forum
Water Scarcity/High Water Stress
Today
2025
2030
700 million people in 43 countries
1.8 Billion people
C4 Billion people
Africa hit particularly hard
Our Style – Supporting the milking
platform
From the out farm .....5 miles down
the road
Argentina To Saudi -The Out Farm
Argentina To Saudi
• Jim McCarthy (tillage farmer) – 32,000 acres of grain in Argentina
• Sold to Almeira – 90,000 cows Saudi Arabia
• Grain shipped 8,242 Miles to Saudi Arabia
• Water replacement
• Water too scarce/valuable to grow grain in Saudi
• Cost?
990,000 tons alfalfa
hay from US 6,700
miles across the
ocean
From the “Out farm”
– Chinese style
Positive Farmers Study Tour 2015 to Missouri
• Visited Royal Dairy Farm
• 6,500 cows in West Kansas
• 17 years water left in their aquifer
• 2034 Choice?
• Either move Dairy
• Or else move feed to Dairy (hundreds of miles)
• Same question facing a huge percentage of US milk
produced in the south west
Food will be produced
• But where water stressed much higher cost for many
countries
The Future
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Transporting feed thousands of miles
Reality for growing numbers of farmers
Reality for growing numbers of countries
Hugely adds to cost of production
Ireland/UK have Enviable Natural Advantages
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Fertile soils
A temperate climate
Abundant rain water
Aided by the influence of the Gulf Stream
Ireland’s climate is particularly suited for the growth
of ryegrass
This simple comparative advantage is the basis for a strong,
profitable Dairy Industry
 Great for Farming in Water Rich areas
 Horrible for billions of people
 Challenges
o Need for innovative technology
o Need for huge investment
POSITIVE FARMERS
CONFERENCE 2017
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