Committee: Social, Cultural and Humanitarian
Question of: The countries affected by ‘El Niño’
Students Officer: Eleonora Vassanelli
Introduction:
El Niño and La Niña are complex weather patterns resulting from variations in ocean temperatures in the
Equatorial Pacific. They are opposite phases of what is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
cycle. The ENSO cycle is a scientific term that describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean
and atmosphere in the east-central Equatorial Pacific region, roughly between the International Dateline and
120 degrees west.
La Niña is sometimes referred to as the cold phase of ENSO and El Niño as the warm phase of ENSO. These
deviations from normal surface temperatures can have large-scale impacts not only on ocean processes, but
also on global weather and climate. Typically last 9 to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for
years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two
to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.
It refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface
temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific, which is caused by a change in the wind
patterns. Here, the Pacific Trade Winds fail to replenish following the summer monsoons of Asia. This warmer air leads to an oscillation between the cooler and warmer waters, leading to warmer ocean temperatures
than normal.
The Issue:
The warming in the oceans caused by the winds leads to diffusion of this warming all over the globe. It
changes atmospheric pressures with consequences for rainfall, wind patterns, sea surface temperatures and
can sometimes have a positive, and sometimes a negative effect on those systems. In Europe for example, El
Niño reduces the instances of hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Mr. LYKKETOFT (President of the General Assembly) said the reports before the Assembly demonstrated
the challenges facing the international community as it sought to address an unprecedented level of humanitarian need across the world. Some 60 million people were displaced worldwide, half of them children.
While the international community had responded by consistently increasing humanitarian assistance, as of
30 November, United Nations humanitarian response plans remained only 49 per cent funded. “A more proportionate, comprehensive and coherent response to today’s humanitarian and refugee crisis is urgently needed”, he stressed.
Within the tropics, the eastward shift of thunderstorm activity from Indonesia into the central Pacific during
warm episodes results in abnormally dry conditions over northern Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines in
both seasons. Drier than normal conditions are also observed over southeastern Africa and northern Brazil,
during the northern winter season. During the northern summer season, Indian monsoon rainfall tends to be
less than normal, especially in northwest India where crops are adversely affected. Wetter than normal conditions during warm episodes are observed along the west coast of tropical South America, and at subtropical
latitudes of North America (Gulf Coast) and South America (southern Brazil to central Argentina). The
floods caused by El Nino forced 150,000 South Americans to evacuate their houses.
During a warm episode winter, mid-latitude low pressure systems tend to be more vigorous than normal in
the region of the eastern North Pacific. These systems pump abnormally warm air into western Canada,
Alaska and the extreme northern portion of the contiguous United States. Storms also tend to be more vigorous in the Gulf of Mexico and along the southeast coast of the United States resulting in wetter than normal
conditions in that region.
Fostering Disease
Scientists at several institutions, including Cornell University, have uncovered compelling evidence that the
number of cholera cases in Bangladesh rises dramatically almost precisely 11 months after the waters of the
equatorial Pacific begin to warm thousands of miles away. Experts have long suspected they would find
some upsurge in cholera because warmer waters enhance the growth of a pathogenic microorganism, Vibrio
cholerae, that carries the disease. But a direct connection eluded them until the researchers came across a
hospital in Bangladesh, one of the poorest and most densely populated nations on the planet, that had tested
all incoming patients for cholera since January of 1980.
The number of cholera cases at the hospital peaked every 3.7 years, exactly the same frequency as the occurrences of El Niño. The peaks came 11 months after the beginning of the El Niño. It takes six months for the
warmer waters to reach the shores of Bangladesh, and it takes another five months for the population of the
deadly microorganisms to peak in the warmer waters. 11 months match the increase in the level of the disease precisely with the beginning of the El Niño. There is a link between El Niño and cholera, making the phenomenon far more deadly than had been thought. Many scientists believe El Niño’s intensity will get even
worse if the planet continues its current warming trend.
Thinning a Food Source
The warmer waters of El Niño, the more they reduce the population of phytoplankton, the tiny plant-like organisms that form the bottom of the food chain upon which all other marine organisms depend. This was
done by analysing high-resolution satellite images by Mati Kahru and Greg Mitchell of Scripps. Causing the
resource to be distributed more evenly, wiping out the concentrations upon which so many different types of
fish feed. Deprived of that resource, millions of fish move north or south in search of food, where many of
them die because the water is too cold for them to survive, or they starve. The forced migration can also have
a ripple effect. Scientists have found that mackerel migrated farther north than usual, feeding on juvenile
salmon and thus further depleting this important and troubled resource. Other scientists have found evidence
of the ripple effect even in sea birds. Bird faeces are rich in guano, a natural fertiliser that is essential for
agriculture. During a strong El Niño, many sea birds migrate to the wrong areas and die.
There is also much evidence that El Niño is contributing to the death of coral reefs around the world, depriving marine creatures of a nutrient-rich habitat.
Referring to the Key Events paragraph about the consequences and statistics of El Nino in 1982 and 1997,
the phenomenon has proven to be devastating at an economical but especially infrastructural level, as it damages and destroys cities and villages with its floods, storms and heavy rains.
How El Niño will change or affect climate change in the future is still not very well understood. Some recent
research has suggested that the effects of the ENSO will worsen as the climate changes.
Key events
Event/Date
Explanation
1983: Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia
Suffered serious malaria epidemics after heavy
rainfall in 1983 El Niño. The epidemic in Ecuador
was badly exacerbated by displacement of
population owing to the flooding.
1991: Hurricane Andrew
A hurricane occurred together with el Niño
1997: Malaysia, Indonesia and Brazil
Droughts exacerbated huge forest fires. Smoke
inhalation from these fires was a major public health
problem in these countries, with countless people
visiting health facilities with respiratory problems.
2014: All the world
It was a warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific
Ocean. This increased food insecurity, higher
malnutrition rates and devastated livehood.
Additionally, the humanitarian impact is quite strong. In many areas the only places available to poor communities may be marginal land with few natural defences against weather extremes. In Peru, Ecuador and
Bolivia in 1997 brought serious malaria epidemics as well as in the same year in Malaysia, Indonesia and
Brazil which not only epidemics outraged but exacerbating huge forest fires. Smoke inhalation from these
fires was a major public health problem
Previous Attempts to solve the issue
The previous report of the Secretary-General on this subject matter (A/56/76), provided an overview of a
number of activities carried out at the global, regional and national levels in pursuance of General Assembly
resolution 52/200 and aimed at reducing the impact of future El Niño phenomena and similar climatic variables. The activities described relate to the study of lessons learned from the 1997-1998 El Niño event, both
from a scientific and technical perspective and the application of seasonal to interannual forecasts and the
related societal efforts to reduce vulnerability. The report described in particular:
- Working Group I on climate and disasters, led by WMO, set up to ensure that climate-time-scale factors are
appropriately incorporated in the work carried out under the Strategy.
- The first Intergovernmental Meeting of Experts on El Niño, held in Guayaquil, Ecuador, from 9 to 13 November 1998.
- The scientific and technical analysis of the 1997-1998 El Niño event, prepared by WMO, with additional
financial and technical support from UNEP, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of the United
Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization and the International Council for Science.
- A project to assess the impact of the El Niño event on 16 developing countries around the world, carried out
by UNEP, WMO, the National Centre for Atmospheric Research, the United Nations University and the Strategy secretariat.
- The World Climate Programme/Climate Information and Prediction Services project, which is developing a
coherent, global framework for effective operational seasonal to interannual climate prediction and dissemination to serve national meteorological and hydrological services.
- The climate outlook forums and the findings of the global review of regional climate outlook forums.
- The extreme climate events programme run by the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre, in collaboration
with the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and with the support of
the United States Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance.
- An agreement for a study on the prediction and amelioration of economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation in Latin America and the Caribbean countries, signed in September 1999 by the Inter-American Development Bank and WMO.
- A regional workshop to assess climate variability impacts on water resources, which was convened by the
South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission, and held in Nadi, Fiji, in October 1999, and supported by
the British High Commission (Fiji), UNEP, NOAA, the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme and
WMO.
Simple improvements to infrastructure, such as those carried out by Ethiopia’s public-works programme, can
reduce the spread of disease. Better sewers make it less likely that heavy rain is followed by an outbreak of
diarrhoea. Stronger bridges mean villages are less likely to be left without food and medicine after floods.
According to a paper in 2011 by Mr Hsiang and co-authors, civil conflict is correlated with El Niño’s malign
effects—and the poorer the country, the stronger the link. Though the relationship may not be causal, helping
divided communities to prepare for disasters would at least lessen the risk that those disasters are followed
by bloodshed.Disaster insurance can be too costly for poor governments and individuals: uncertain demand,
weak regulation and local corruption all put insurers off, too. But by making the cost of risks explicit, insurance can encourage their mitigation. Collective schemes, such as the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance
Facility, can make insurance more affordable, and disseminate information that helps governments, citizens
and those running ports and airports to prepare. Since the poorest are least likely to recoup their losses from
disasters linked to El Niño, minimising their losses needs to be the priority.
Possible solution
1. Encourages scientists and governments to work together to design and build a global system for
(i) observing the tropical oceans,
(ii) predicting El Niño o and other irregular climate rhythms, and
(iii) making rou- tine climate predictions readily available to those who have need of them for planning purposes (NOAA 1998)
2. Calls upon nations to set up humanitarian commission to deal with the people affected by and to prevent
the spread of viruses that cause:
(i) diarrhea
(ii) malaria
(iii) colera
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