Review of Ofcom’s list of larger parties
Scottish Greens
February 2016
Introduction
The Scottish Green Party (SGP) was established in 1990, and has had a consistent presence
in the Scottish Parliament since Holyrood was founded in 1999. After the Scottish
independence referendum campaign, the party has gone through a significant period of
growth – both in membership and its electoral support. SGP has always been registered as
a distinct political party in Scotland, in contrast to Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservatives
and Scottish Liberal Democrats, all of which are subsections of UK-wide entities.
The Scottish Greens welcome this consultation on the Review of Ofcom’s list of larger
parties for elections taking place on 5 May 2016. We would like to call on Ofcom to reassess
its proposed list of ‘larger parties’, and to reconsider new evidence and amend its
framework for assessment. We believe that due to the current levels of Parliamentary
representation of the Scottish Greens, the steadily growing levels of electoral support as
well as the surge in public profile and membership of the party in recent years, the Scottish
Greens should be included on the ‘larger parties list’.
Additional evidence
We welcome Ofcom’s focus on past and present electoral support in assessing the inclusion
of parties on the ‘larger parties list’, but believe that where evidence is finely balanced,
consideration should be given to broader trends in public support – namely, membership
and public profile and support,
Over the past two years, the Scottish Greens have seen a huge surge in public support and
profile. The party’s membership has grown from approximately 1,200 in January 2014 to
over 9,000 people in January 2016. This puts the Greens closer to the Scottish
Conservatives’ membership figure than the Liberal Democrats’ membership figure (most
recently estimated at 2,800), placing the Scottish Greens as the fourth largest Scottish party
in terms of membership. The growing membership of the Scottish Greens has also been
reflected in the party’s public presence. Green councillors and MSPs regularly feature in
national and local media, and the party’s co-convenor, Patrick Harvie, has the second
highest approval rating among Scottish party leaders at +25 (Ipsos Mori 2015). His rating is
second only to the First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, and well ahead of other opposition
leaders, Kezia Dugdale, Willie Rennie and Ruth Davidson (see image 1). Patrick Harvie is a
well-known, recognisable and credible politician, and voters have come to expect his
appearance alongside other leaders after his performance in major televised independence
referendum debates. While the Scottish Greens are the fifth party in Parliament, the profile
of and support for the party is on par with the four largest parties, and indeed clearly
ahead of the Liberal Democrats.
Image 1: Ipsos Mori 2015
Since the high-profile Green Yes campaign, the Scottish public have come to know and
anticipate the Greens’ presence in the news, debates and other broadcasting. As
mentioned above, our co-convenor Patrick Harvie has become widely recognised since his
appearance in referendum debates, and Scottish voters have come to expect his
contribution to political broadcasting.
In December 2015, the Scottish Greens launched a petition calling on the BBC Trust to
include the Scottish Greens in its ‘major parties’ list. The petition gathered over 6,000
responses in a short space of time, demonstrating that there is strong public demand for
balanced coverage before the election, where the Scottish Greens feature alongside the
four largest parties in Scotland. It should be noted that the First Minister and SNP
leader Nicola Sturgeon also stated her support for including the Greens in
broadcasting and indicated that the SNP would adopt that position in their
response to the BBC Trust consultation.
Analytical framework
While we recognise there is a need to provide some consistency and predictability for
broadcasters to plan their election coverage, we would like to urge Ofcom to ensure this
need is balanced with broadcasters’ ability to respond to changes in the political scene.
The ‘Green surge’ has been one of the major changes since the Scottish independence
referendum. It’s crucial that broadcasters adapt to changing circumstances, and strive to
present timely and up-to-date election coverage to voters.
Assessment of evidence
The Scottish Green Party welcomes Ofcom’s decision to ‘exercise their judgement in favour
of inclusion of a party on the list’, but have concerns that this approach has not been
applied when considering the status of the Scottish Greens.
As mentioned above, while we recognise the need for Ofcom to take a balanced, consistent
approach to its broadcasting regulation, we are concerned that the body is not responding
quickly enough to changes in the Scottish political context.
The Scottish Greens have had a consistent presence in the Scottish Parliament since it was
established in 1999, and since the Independence Referendum in 2014, our electoral
support has grown significantly. The party’s electoral support is currently on par, and
projected to surpass, the electoral support for the Liberal Democrats. At the moment, the
Liberal Democrats have 5 MSPs in Holyrood. In contrast, the Scottish Green Group consists
of 4 MSPs in total - two SGP MSPs (Patrick Harvie MSP and Alison Johnstone MSP), and two
independent MSPs (John Wilson MSP and John Finnie MSP), both of whom are party
members and are standing for re-election as Scottish Green Party candidates. In terms of
current parliamentary representation, Scottish Greens are very close to the fourth largest
party, Liberal Democrats.
Polling from the past year indicates that the Scottish Greens are going to significantly
increase their share of the vote in the Holyrood election in 2016. The average for twentyseven polls conducted in 2014 put the Scottish Greens at 7.9% of the vote. Polls since
January 2015 indicate that the Scottish Greens will return a record number of seats in the
upcoming Holyrood election in 2016, and outperform the Liberal Democrats. Media
coverage of the election thus far has clearly identified the Greens as a more relevant and
interesting element of the campaign than the Liberal Democrats, given the widely held
view that we are likely to overtake them in both votes and seats.
An average projection, calculated by Weber Shandwick between January 2015 and
November 2015 (see image 1), put the Liberal Democrats at 5.7% of the regional votes and
Scottish Greens at 8% of regional votes. According to this estimate, UKIP, also excluded
from the ‘larger parties list’, will receive 2.8% of the regional vote and win no seats in the
Scottish Parliament. It is clear that in terms of electoral support in the coming Holyrood
election, the Scottish Greens are at least on par with the fourth “larger” party, the Liberal
Democrats, and certainly well ahead other parties with “minor” status.
Image 2: Weber Shandwick 2015
In its assessment of past and present electoral support for the Scottish Greens, Ofcom
rightly notes the 8.1% vote in the 2014 European election, as well as the predicted
significant share of the regional vote in the Holyrood election in 2016. However, Ofcom
appears to indicate the share of directly elected seats to be more relevant to its assessment
than the share of regional votes. We do not believe this distinction to be useful, as it bears
no direct significance to the number of seats a party will achieve in the election.
We would also contest the relevance of 2015 General Election results in deciding coverage
for Holyrood elections. The voting systems are significantly different and result in significant
differences in voting behaviour. Whilst the European election is also conducted using a
proportional system even it does not compare well to the Additional Member system used
for Holyrood and it's two ballot papers. To place such weight on a first past the postelection jars with the reality of a parliament where close to half of the members are elected
by proportional lists. This is simply not something General Election results can reflect.
We recognise there is some uncertainty involved in assessing levels of support according to
opinion polls, as seen in the UK general election of 2015. However, we would like to
highlight that considering the current levels of Parliamentary representation for the
Scottish Greens, growing support in polls over a number of years, as well as the surge in
party membership, there is sufficient evidence to demonstrate a steady increase in support
for SGP.
Conclusion
The Scottish Green Party has established itself as a major influence in Scottish politics, with
a consistent presence in Holyrood, a leading position in the Scottish independence
referendum and the most popular leader in the Scottish opposition. The party is already
larger in membership than the Scottish Liberal Democrats, and likely to take over the
position as the fourth largest Holyrood party in next May’s election.
We believe the evidence presented above demonstrates that the Scottish Greens have
sufficient electoral support and parliamentary representation to be considered one of the
main parties in Scotland. We call on Ofcom to include the Scottish Greens on its list of
larger parties. We would welcome a clear timescale for the publication of final guidance.
For more information, contact:
Ross Greer
Party Development Officer
Scottish Green Party
72 Newhaven Road
Bonnington Mill
Edinburgh EH6 6QG
e. [email protected]
m. 07757266796