Dale T. Mortensen Christopher A. Pissarides Job Matching, Wage Dispersion, and Unemployment edited by Konstantinos Tatsiramos Klaus F. Zimmermann Oxford University Press Oxford, 2011, 1-16. Mortensen and Pissarides: Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment Konstantinos Tatsiramos and Klaus F. Zimmermann The 2005 IZA Prize in Labor Economics was awarded to Dale T. Mortensen and Christopher A. Pissarides for their path-breaking contributions to the analysis of markets with search and matching frictions. The annual IZA Prize is awarded for outstanding academic achievement in the field of labor economics. Both their individual contributions and their joint development of a dynamic equilibrium model of labor markets account for much of the success of job search theory and the flows approach in becoming a leading tool for microeconomic and macroeconomic analysis of labor markets. The 2005 IZA Prize Laureates have been selected, jointly with Peter Diamond, as the recipients of the 2010 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. Their models, which are now widely used in labor economics and macroeconomics, have highly enriched research on unemployment as an equilibrium phenomenon, on labor market dynamics, and cyclical adjustment. Their research on labor market search and job matching has also significantly directed and shaped the empirical literature. The award ceremony was preceded by the IZA Prize Conference in honor of Professors Mortensen and Pissarides, where a number of distinguished scholars, including Nobel Laureate James Heckman, presented papers on topics such as the effects of cognitive and noncognitive abilities on labor market outcomes, the future of unions, and the role of civic attitudes on the design of labor market institutions. Previous winners of the IZA Prize in Labor Economics include Jacob Mincer, Orley Ashenfelter, and Edward Lazear. These past winners have contributed to the field of labor economics by undertaking pioneering research on topics such as human capital investments, on-the-job learning, female labor supply decisions, trade union 1 Introduction by the Editors membership, program evaluation methodologies, compensation schemes and worker productivity, and personnel economics. Professors Mortensen and Pissarides join this esteemed group of economists for their exceptional work in labor economics. This book contains five papers which helped to shape the equilibrium search model. The first chapter by Mortensen (1982) and the second chapter by Pissarides (1985) are among the contributions which have initiated the research on what is known today as the search and matching model of the labor market. The third chapter by Pissarides (1986) provides the empirical foundations for the flows approach to the labor market analysis. The fourth chapter is the joint paper by Mortensen and Pissarides (1994), which is a complete statement of the equilibrium search and matching model with endogenous job creation and job destruction. The fifth chapter by Mortensen (1990) examines models of wage inequality. An introduction written by the authors discusses the flow view of the labor market that replaced the disequilibrium theory and formed the basis for the development of a coherent theory of worker and employer behavior. The authors provide a summary of each chapter with a discussion of their important contributions and their relation to the existing literature. Finally, the book concludes with a final chapter written by the authors with an extensive summary of the developments in the literature since the Mortensen-Pissarides model was put in place. Dale Mortensen has pioneered the study of individual workers’ job search decisions. The insight that search frictions can be modeled as random arrival of trading partners – or stochastically arriving matching opportunities – has provided crucial thrust to the idea that searching for wage offers and jobs is costly when workers and firms lack full information about prices in the labor market. This representation of frictions has also revolutionized research on labor turnover and reallocation, as well as research on personal relationships. Dale Mortensen has also advanced the field in his joint work with Kenneth Burdett (Burdett and Mortensen 1980), explaining search and layoff unemployment as equilibria phenomena and showing how a search model with wage posting can generate wage dispersion (Burdett and Mortensen 1998). Christopher Pissarides has broken new ground in studying macroeconomic implications of the flows approach to labor market analysis by using the matching functions as a tool to study equilibrium unem2 Introduction by the Editors ployment. The matching function relates job creation to the number of unemployed, the number of job vacancies, and the intensities with which workers search and firms recruit. It successfully captures the key implications of frictions that prevent an instantaneous encounter of trading partners and has proved a particularly powerful tool for modeling two-sided search frictions that stem from information imperfections about potential trading partners, not least because it can be incorporated in models without adding excessive complexity. Pissarides (1979, 1985, 1994) further developed the matching model, which is at present the leading tool for studying imperfect labor markets in macroeconomics, in subsequent studies of equilibrium unemployment dynamics. The essence of the main ideas of the search and matching framework and the insights of the immense literature that was stimulated by their fundamental contributions are presented in two state-of-the-art joint articles that are the prime references for researchers interested in the field: “Job Reallocation, Unemployment Fluctuations and Unemployment Differences” (Mortensen and Pissarides 1999a) focuses on the macroeconomic implications of the flows approach, while “New Developments in Models of Search in the Labor Market” (Mortensen and Pissarides 1999b) centers on the implications of search decisions at the individual worker level. Pissarides has elaborated the matching approach in “Equilibrium Unemployment Theory” (1990, 2000), which has become the leading monograph in the field. The search and matching framework advanced by Dale Mortensen and Christopher Pissarides is a theoretical tool for the analysis of labor markets suitable for policy analysis. In a joint paper, Mortensen and Pissarides (2003) compared the impact of policy for the European Union and the United States, showing that the impact of policy is quantitatively different at different skill levels because the smaller the surplus created by a match, the bigger the impact of a given policy on wages and job creation. Christopher Pissarides has also carried out a quantitative evaluation of the tax recommendations in the 1994 European Commission White Paper. The matching model has been applied to the study of labor market policy, especially in Europe, following the rise of unemployment in the 1980s. The European Commission through the Delors Report (European Commission 1994) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development through its Jobs Study (OECD 1994), recommended a reform of labor market policy to increase job creation. 3 Introduction by the Editors Researchers from IZA's core staff have contributed to the application efforts of the matching model (e.g. Sunde 2003). The research findings of Mortensen and Pissarides also underscore the reform course initiated by the “Hartz” reform of the German government (strongly supported by IZA through various publications including Zimmermann 2003), which proposes incentives to take up employment and efforts to reduce search costs through a more efficient job placement process in order to shorten unemployment durations. Their work fits nicely with the mission and spirit of the Institute for the Study of Labor. Over its more than ten-year existence, IZA has constantly striven to position itself at the intersection of sound academic research on labor economics and policy-making. IZA has been active in the research area that was pioneered by Mortensen and Pissarides through the Program Area “Labor Markets and Institutions.” This program area analyzes the effects of institutions on labor market outcomes. A particular emphasis is on the analysis of the institutions on the micro level and their macroeconomic consequences for economic performance. Past events include workshops on wage inequality, labor market institutions, structural change, employment protection, frictions, firm dynamics, and growth. Both Dale Mortensen and Christopher Pissarides have been active in a number of IZA events, presenting their most recent research in the IZA seminar series and conferences. Both Mortensen and Pissarides have been IZA Research Fellows since 2001. Over several decades, innovations in the field of labor economics have been fostered on the microeconomic level through the increased availability of micro data and the development of better quantitative methods. Mortensen and Pissarides have forcefully reminded the area about the strong potentials of macroeconomic thinking by providing researchers with a convincing and workable quantitative tool. Both the 2005 IZA Prize in Labor Economics and the 2010 Nobel Prize in Economics recognize their contribution in explaining labor markets with frictions and the applicability of their theory to markets other than the labor market 4 1 Introduction: The Flow View of the Labor Market The flow view of the labor market is fundamental in the theory of equilibrium unemployment, as expressed in Pissarides (2000). Unemployment is a state which individual workers occupy for a relatively short period of time, as they seek rewarding long-term employment. Individual workers flow into the state and others flow out. Offsetting the flow of job-finders and unemployed workers who have given up job search to take up leisure or other activities outside the labor force, is a simultaneous flow into the state of unemployment of workers who lost their jobs either through layoff or quit, and new entrants from a nonparticipation state. This conception of the labor market has replaced the disequilibrium theory under which employment was determined by the real wage and labor demand, and unemployment simply reflected excess supply at a real wage that was above that required to clear the labor market. The disequilibrium theory, which viewed the labor market as a spot market that meets every day to allocate jobs to workers, was inconsistent with the observations regarding the experience of individual workers over time; in particular the fact that a small fraction of the labor force flow in and out of unemployment each year and the typical employment relationship lasts for several years. Furthermore, available jobs are heterogeneous, offering different wages, different long-term career opportunities, and various kinds of non-pecuniary features, such as job security. These facts suggest that workers might find it in their interest to invest time and effort in the process of finding a “good” job, one that pays well, that might offer a challenge, good promotion prospects and consequently have a chance of lasting for a while. 5 The Flow View of the Labor Market A natural implication of these ideas, and the empirical fact that unemployment durations are typically quite short relative to employment durations, is that the labor market should be viewed in stock-flow terms. Since the early 1970s, this alternative view of unemployment has received empirical support from observations on worker flows found in the US Current Population Survey, in many administrative data sources collected for the servicing unemployment insurance systems in Europe, and in new panel data sources that were becoming available and were to prove influential in labor market research, such as the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics. In this alternative view of the labor market finding a job is not akin to waiting on the corner for someone to offer a day's work at the “going wage”. Instead, acquiring an acceptable job is the outcome of an information gathering process in which the worker exploits contacts, friends, and neighbors, about job availability. Other more formal channels of information are also available. “Help wanted” advertising in newspapers and vacancies posted with the government's employment service inform decisions about where to apply for specific openings. The product of this effort is the prospect of an offer or a sequence of offers distributed over time. When an employment offer arrives, the worker has to decide whether or not to accept given the information gathered to date, the offers previously generated that are still open, and general information about the availability and generosity of offers that might arise in the future. In other words, the alternative to acceptance for a market participant is not home production, schooling, or some other non-market activity, although these options are always available. The default option is normally continued search. The entry into unemployment is also the result of choices made by workers and firms, and subject to similar comparisons with the alternatives available elsewhere in the market under imperfect information. Joining the labor market from outside the labor force often entails starting a process of search similar to the one for existing unemployed workers. Is this a better option than staying outside and engaging in home production, leisure, or education? If the worker is already in a job and has the option of staying on, quitting into unemployment poses a problem that is very similar to the acceptance problem of the unemployed job seeker. The existing job is an implicit offer on the table to continue employment, the quitting alternative is a search option for an uncertain outcome. Even for jobs which have become less profitable than when they were first 6 The Flow View of the Labor Market opened, there is a non-trivial choice to be made between continuing employment or leaving the job and seeking new job offers. A similar choice is faced by the firm. Should it close down jobs that have become less profitable or continue production? A large part of entry into unemployment is the result of job closure but this job closure is not necessarily the result of shocks that make the job's overall profits negative instantly and forever. Just as there are reservation wages for unemployed workers looking for job offers, there are reservation productivities for employed workers and their firms. In good times a job might be destroyed more readily than in bad times, because the outside options of the worker and firm are better. This view of the labor market formed the basis for the development of a coherent theory of worker and employer behavior in a market in which trading opportunities are generated through search and jobs are subject to change. The theory is based on solid maximizing microfoundations under rational expectations about the future, when all gains from private trades are exploited within the constraints imposed by the market information structure. It builds up from the microfoundations to give equilibrium macro models with unemployment and employment as distinct states, with large flows between them. The development of models to explain these processes is the topic of the papers in this book. The first attempts at developing such a theory took place in the 1960s, following pioneering work by Stigler (1962), Phelps (1967), and Friedman (1968).1 But those early attempts were essentially partial models of the labor market, and the problems that subsequent authors addressed were problems that could be studied within a partial equilibrium framework, such as empirical studies of the distribution of unemployment spells lengths. The paper by Lucas and Prescott (1974) represents the first attempt to formulate a formal model of search equilibrium and unemployment for an economy as a whole. Their economy is made up of separate “islands”, a metaphor that had been popularized by Phelps. Specifically, production takes place at different locations and search is the time spent transiting from one to another. As wages and employment are determined by the law of “supply and demand” on each island and workers migrate toward the islands that offer the most “rent” in a manner which is not completely specified, their model is very much in the abstract tradition of competitive equilibrium analysis. Hence, their not surprising conclusion that the level of unem7 The Flow View of the Labor Market ployment attained is constrained efficient follows. Although an important branch of the literature stemming from this source lives on, its relative lack of current popularity seems to be due to the fact that the micoeconmics of the search process are not explictly spelled out. Beginning in the late seventies and early eighties, Diamond and Maskin (1979) and Diamond (1982a,b), Mortensen (1978, 1982a,b), and Pissarides (1979, 1984a,b, 1985a) began to formulate matching models that included in an explicit way search on both sides of the market. In these papers, the notion of an equilibrium with a “search technology” was more fully developed. 2 Within the context of these models, one could formulate and answer questions regarding the existence and efficiency of the matching structures that arose in equilibrium, including the “natural” or equilibrium rate of unemployment, the principal topic of the first edition of Pissarides (1990). In these models, wages, or more generally prices, were viewed as the outcome of bilateral bargains struck by both parties to matches, rather than dictated by one of the two, as in Phelps (1968) and Mortensen (1970). These bargains split the rents induced by the fact that finding alternative matching partners was neither instantaneous nor costless. Naturally, the wage bargains are struck ex post, after the parties meet. This formulation raised an obvious incentive question: Would the division of match rents that resulted from bilateral bargaining generate equilibrium structures that were socially efficient in some sense? Although the obvious answer was a resounding no, the formulation of the problem initiated a new literature on the existence and properties of market equilibrium solutions to fully articulated search models. Of our early contributions we include here Mortensen (1982a, Chapter 1) and Pissarides (1985b, Chapter 2). Together with Diamond's (1982a,b) papers they initiated the research that led to what is known today as the search and matching model of the labor market. Chapter 1 (Mortensen 1982a) focuses on the decisions of unmatched agents to participate in the process of forming matches. This paper is one of the first papers to deal explicitly with the dual issues of existence and efficiency of search equilibrium and was also one of the first to address issues on assignment in an environment in which search frictions were important. The model is one of “partnership formation”. Partnerships are coalitions of two types of individuals, men and women for example, that could produce a joint value that exceeded the sum of what the two partners could accomplish independently. Potential 8 The Flow View of the Labor Market partners meet at random. Although all partnerships could be viewed as identical ex ante, “match quality,” the output specific to the match, is revealed only after two agents meet. This feature of the model (which was introduced in the context of labor turnover by Jovanovic 1979), distinguished it from the case in which agents have fixed “abilities,” or other characteristics that determined joint output. The division of the surplus match output generated by the search frictions and the ex post match quality is a jointly rational division, a point on the contract curve defined by the available outside options, continued search. Hence, matches form if, and only if, it is in the interest of both parties. Although there are generally many jointly efficient divisions of the surplus as in any bilateral bargaining problem, the generalized Nash solution became a focal point of interest in the analysis. The paper considers two different specific but plausible functional forms for the matching function, linear and quadratic. In the linear matching function case, each unmatched agent on either side of the market can contact a randomly selected unmatched agent on the other side at a chosen frequency. Of course, the same agent might also be contacted by someone of the other type. Hence, the meeting rate at which an individual agent meets a prospective partner is equal to her own search effort plus the average effort of agents on the other side of the market. The frequency of meetings that a particular agent could be a party to can be viewed as a Poisson random variable with expected meeting frequency equal to the meeting rate just defined. The quadratic matching function is an extension of this simple set up and can be viewed as one in which individuals cannot tell ex ante whether a potential partner is matched or not. Hence, the effective meeting rate with an unmatched agent of the opposite type is the product of the meeting rate and the probability that the agent met is not matched. The linear matching function exhibits constant returns to scale while the quadratic specification implies that the matching process is subject to “increasing returns” in the sense that a doubling of the number of unmatched agents of each type, holding the total number constant, would quadruple the aggregate number of meetings per time period of fixed length. The rate at which a match produces output is a random variable ex ante, which is realized when two potential parties to the match meet. The decision to create a match for the pair involves a joint choice of a minimally acceptable value of match quality, analogous to the choice of a reservation wage in the stopping problem formulation of the one9 The Flow View of the Labor Market sided search model. Given that the two parties divide the match in a jointly rational manner by selecting a point on the contact curve, the reservation product is that which equates the sum of the expected present value of the two parties’ future incomes, were they to form the match, to the sum of the two option values of continued search. The rent to be divided is the match surplus, the difference between the joint value of a match and the sums of the values of continued search. The optimal search effort choices maximize the difference between the total expected return and cost of search given the search effort choices of all other individuals. A symmetric matching equilibrium is simply a pair of search effort choices, one for each agent type, that maximize each individual’s expected future income given the search efforts chosen by all other agents in the market. An increase in the search effort of potential trading partners increases the expected meeting frequency of every individual, but an increase in the search effort of one's own type decreases the frequency. These two spill-over effects are the principal externalities of interest in the welfare analysis that is discussed in the paper. The paper demonstrates the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium and establishes that a sharing rule exists, at least in an ex ante sense, which will induce efficient choices. The second and third papers in the volume, by Christopher Pissarides, are more explicitly macroeconomic and they contain the foundations for the model in the first edition of his book (Pissarides 1990). The problem that they address is the existence of a natural unemployment rate that can fluctuate over time. When Friedman and Phelps launched the idea of a natural unemployment rate it was implicitly understood that it was a feature of steady-state equilibrium and that over the cycle the rate would be sluggish at best. Fluctuations in the unemployment rate were then analyzed within the context of a Phillips curve, essentially driven by misperceptions about prices and wages. But the large changes in unemployment that followed the oil and material shocks of the 1970s and the productivity slowdown that started in 1973 did not seem to be consistent with this idea. It was implausible to argue that the massive unemployment hikes, especially in Europe, were due to wrong expectations about prices. Nor was the idea of a constant natural rate obviously consistent with the “Beveridge curve,” the negative relation between vacancies and unemployment discussed at length in several papers in the 1960s and 1970s, following the pioneering work of Dow and Dicks-Mireaux (1958). 10 The Flow View of the Labor Market Pissarides' first paper in this volume (Pissarides 1985b, Chapter 2) borrowed ideas from Nash bargaining theory, including those in Mortensen's work (Chapter 1 of this volume), to argue that the bilateral wage bargains that share the rents in a search equilibrium imply some wage stickiness. The reason is that the wage equation that results from the generalized surplus-sharing rule is a weighted average of the worker's marginal product and her non-market returns, such as unemployment compensation, value of leisure, and home production. If the model is then subjected to a real productivity shock (or a material one, or even a nominal misperceptions one), and the worker's non-market returns are not responsive to such shocks, wages will not fully respond to the shock and so the “natural,” or “equilibrium” unemployment rate will change. The contribution of the paper was to embed this idea into a fully developed equilibrium model of the labor market that behaved, in all other respects, as a neoclassical Solow model with unemployment. The key building blocks were (1) the arrival rates of matches that depended on one of the model's key unknowns, “tightness,” the ratio of vacancies to unemployment, (2) the job vacancy equation, and (3) the Nash wage equation. The arrival rates of matches could be derived from an aggregate matching function with constant returns to scale, which make the model compatible with a Solow growth model (although no growth was explicitly considered). This assumption makes tightness the key unknown in this class of models. The firm's decision to create vacancies was modeled as a zero-profit condition on the marginal vacancy, which gave rise to an equation virtually identical to a dynamic demand for labor equation with hiring costs. The transmission of shocks to unemployment was then as follows. Let a positive shock hit the marginal product of labor. Each firmworker pair now make more profit and this extra profit is shared between the firm and the worker according to the Nash wage equation. Because of the influence of non-market returns on the wage equation, the wage rate does not absorb all the rise in labor's marginal product, and profits also rise. Firms, anticipating more profit per job, now open more job vacancies and enter the market to look for a match. The aggregate matching function gives a path for the fall in unemployment, as more matches take place. The model, at least qualitatively, reproduced the Beveridge curve with anti-clockwise loops around it and a “sticky” wage. It thus delivered cyclical unemployment dynamics 11 The Flow View of the Labor Market without any reference to inflation or the Phillips curve, and with fully rational maximizing behavior under rational expectations. The model, however, could also be reinterpreted as a static equilibrium model of the labor market. The zero-profit condition for vacancy entry was essentially a demand for labor equation with similar properties to conventional demand curves, whereas the supply of labor, which was the controversial relation in neoclassical models of employment fluctuations (such as the intertemporal substitution model), was replaced by the Nash wage equation. The conventional labor supply equation in the model was a vertical line, with employment given inside the line according to the parameters of the matching function and the zero-profit condition. The model had one more feature which gave richer dynamics. As in the Jovanovic (1979) and Mortensen (1982b) papers, the ex post productivity of a match varied across matches, although ex ante there was homogeneity across workers and jobs. This assumption introduced the idea of a reservation match quality, which reflected a reservation wage and a reservation profit level. The firm and worker agreed, because of the Nash sharing rule that applied continually, which job matches to form (after a meeting) and which to reject (after the arrival of a shock). The match acceptance decision was identical to the one previously studied in a similar equilibrium setting (Pissarides 1984b). The job destruction decision anticipated in one respect the later findings of Davis, Haltiwanger and Schuh (1996) and the model of Mortensen and Pissarides (1994, see Chapter 4 in this volume). In particular, if an aggregate negative shock hit jobs, many job matches close to the reservation were instantly destroyed; no such mass creation took place when a positive shock hit, as matches still had to be formed through the slow matching process. So there was an asymmetry between rises and falls in unemployment due, as the later analysis made clear, to the cyclical asymmetry in job creation and destruction. Chapter 3 (Pissarides 1986a) has to be seen in the context of the changes taking place in labor markets in Europe in the 1970s and 1980s. But the more lasting contribution of the paper was to provide the empirical foundations for the flows approach to labor market analysis, and more specifically for the building blocks of the model in Pissarides (1985b). The paper was commissioned by the editors of Economic Policy, at that time a new journal whose objective was to do for European economics what the Brookings Papers in Economic Activity was do12 The Flow View of the Labor Market ing for US economics, to apply the ideas in Pissarides (1985a,b) to the rise of unemployment in Britain. In 1973, unemployment in Britain was about 2% but at the cyclical peak of 1978/79 it only fell down to 5% and by 1983 it had reached 11%. It was clear from the data that most of the rise in unemployment was due to a rise in the natural rate, which existing models could not explain. Models with real shocks quickly appeared to address the problem (most influential among them were models by Bruno and Sachs 1985, and Layard and Nickell 1986a), relying on non-market clearing wages or union bargains. The claim made in the Economic Policy paper was that we could learn more about the dynamics of unemployment and the natural rate by studying the flows in and out of unemployment and the dynamics of job vacancies, because these statistical series contained a lot of useful information that traditional models neglected. The paper uses quarterly British data to address a number of issues that came up in the first generation of search and matching papers. In particular, the four issues that it focuses on are, (1) are the unemployment dynamics driven by the inflow or the outflow rate, (2) is there a well-behaved matching function and is it characterized by constant or increasing returns to scale, (3) is the search equilibrium efficient, and (4) is there a well-behaved “vacancy supply” equation? The answer to (1) was overwhelmingly in favor of the outflow from unemployment, with the inflow making a trivial contribution, except possibly for the two years of very fast rise in unemployment in 1980– 81. This provided a justification for focusing on the much simpler equilibrium model with constant job separation rate. The answer to (2) was also unequivocal. The time series data overwhelmingly supported constant returns to scale. Two versions of the matching function were estimated, a linear one and a log-linear (Cobb-Douglas) one. Both strongly supported constant returns, with unemployment elasticity about 0.7. The answer to (3) was more speculative. It has always been known that the search equilibrium suffered from externalities that implied inefficiencies (Diamond 1982b; Mortensen 1982a,b; Pissarides 1984a,b). The externalities have both positive and negative components: when one more worker enters the market to look for a job, firms with job vacancies are made better off but workers looking for jobs are made worse off. Diamond (1982b) had already hinted that there might be an internalized Nash wage rule and Pissarides (1984b) derived explicitly the share of labor in the wage bargain that internalizes the externalities, what became later known as the “Hosios rule” 13 The Flow View of the Labor Market (Hosios 1990). Efficiency required constant returns and the share of labor in the Nash wage bargain set equal to the elasticity of the matching function with respect to unemployment. In the empirical application, Pissarides (1986a, see Chapter 3 in this volume) speculates that the share of labor in the symmetric Nash bargain is 1/2, but also makes use of another bargaining solution suggested by Binmore, Rubinstein and Wolinski (1986), that makes the share of labor equal to v/(u + v); where v are vacancies and u is unemployment. He then argued that in both cases, if the share of labor was to be 0.7, tightness (v/u) needed to be far higher than observed in his data.3 Finally, the paper makes an attempt to “close the model” and estimate an econometric version of the zero-profit condition that gives the supply of job vacancies. Combined with the matching function and a constant job separations rate, the two equations are used to make predictions about the factors that influence unemployment. The supply of vacancies equation is, however, essentially a demand for labor equation, with the wage rate substituted out from the Nash wage equation. The equations fitted the data well and strong predictions were made about the factors that contributed to the rise in British unemployment. The joint paper by Mortensen and Pissarides (1994), reproduced in this volume as Chapter 4, is a complete statement of the equilibrium search and matching model of the labor market with endogenous job creation and job destruction. Although job destruction played a small role in the earlier model of Pissarides (1985b, see Chapter 2 in this volume), the dynamics of unemployment in the then canonical model were essentially driven by the job creation rate. In the meantime, influential data compiled by Davis and Haltiwanger (1992) showed that the job destruction rate in the US manufacturing sector had at least as much variance as the job creation rate. Subsequent work in other countries reached similar conclusions. In the Mortensen-Pissarides (1994) model the search and matching (job creation) side of the model is similar to the one in Pissarides (1985b and 1990) but job destruction is now a decision variable and the job destruction rate becomes volatile in response to shocks. Once the match is made there are idiosyncratic productivity shocks that move the job's productivity around. The firm and worker have the choice of continuing at the new productivity realized after a shock, or of destroying the job and separating. The authors show that the job destruction decision is governed by a reservation productivity; if the job's productivity goes below the reservation, the job is destroyed. 14 The Flow View of the Labor Market Because job destruction can be instantaneous (barring any job destruction costs, e.g., associated with “employment protection legislation” that slow down the agents' response to shocks), it leads the cycle. When cyclical shocks arrive job destruction changes first and job creation follows as the matching process gathers momentum. Also, when negative cyclical shocks hit, many jobs with productivity close to the reservation now become unprofitable, and close down. This mass destruction following negative shocks explains the spikes in the job destruction data of Davis and Haltiwanger (1992). Mortensen and Pissarides show that reasonable parameter restrictions explain the dynamic properties of job flows well. They apply their model to the controversy about the origin of cyclical shocks and argue that the job creation and destruction data support aggregate shocks as the driving forces of the cycle rather than sectoral shocks as in Lilien's (1982) model. The model of Mortensen and Pissarides (1994) is characterized by productivity differences across firms and wage differentials. It offers itself for an analysis of worker flows and job to job movements, through on-the-job search, which was absent in the original model. These issues were studied within the context of the model by Mortensen (1994) and Pissarides (2000, Chapter 3). As in the partial equilibrium model of Burdett (1978), the optimal policy when there is on the job search is one characterized by two reservation wages. Jobs whose productivity drops below the low reservation wage are destroyed, whereas workers in jobs with productivity between the two reservations search on the job for a better match. If jobs have higher productivity, there is no on-the-job search. The wage inequality in the Mortensen-Pissarides model, however, is entirely due to exogenous productivity differences across jobs. Richer models of wage inequality for identical workers were examined by Mortensen (1990b), reproduced as Chapter 5 of this volume. Mortensen considers wage dispersion, defined as sustainable differences in wages for identical workers, in models where the firm sets the wage. These models have become known as “wage posting” models, in contrast to the “vacancy posting” models considered so far, where the wage is determined by the Nash bargain solution. In their seminal paper, Burdett and Judd (1983) demonstrated that pure and permanent price dispersion was a theoretical possibility when price information is costly. The Burdett-Judd proof that equilibrium dispersion can persist built on an earlier paper by Diamond (1971) set in a product market context. In a context in which many profit maximizing 15 The Flow View of the Labor Market sellers set prices and buyers engage in costly sequential search, Diamond had shown that a non-cooperative Nash equilibrium solution to the game exists in which there is no dispersion when all buyers are identical. The single price is the buyer's common reservation price. The essential idea of the proof is straightforward. If no buyer expects price dispersion, he has no incentive to pay the cost of gathering more than one price quote. But if every buyer gathers only one offer, the seller's dominant strategy is to charge the buyer's reservation price. Interpreted in a labor market context where employers and workers are identical and workers search only while unemployed, there is only a single equilibrium wage offer, which is the monopsony wage. Albrecht and Axell (1984) extend the analysis by considering the case of different types of workers. They show that if there are two groups of workers who have different values of non-market time and if labor productivity varies across employers with sufficient dispersion, a two-wage equilibrium offer distribution exists. Although the two equilibrium offers equal the endogenously determined reservation wage rates of the two worker types, the lower offer generally exceeds the monopsony case. The assumption that workers do not receive job offers while employed has the consequence that every equilibrium wage offer must be the reservation wage of some worker type. Allowing for on-the-job search, Burdett (1990) and Mortensen (1990b, Chapter 5 in this volume) show that an equilibrium is a non-degenerate continuous distribution of wage offers, with lower support equal to the common reservation wage when workers are identical and offer arrival frequencies are independent of employment status. The paper in this book extends the previous analysis to the case of heterogeneous workers and employers. In the case of workers, the model is closely related to and, indeed, an extension of Albrecht and Axell (1984). The paper shows that the equilibrium distribution is characterized by a continuous density on an interval that strictly contains all the reservation wage rates when employed workers search. Extending the analysis to the case in which productivity differs across employers is the second contribution of the paper. As in the case of worker heterogeneity, only a finite number of employer types are considered. Although the equilibrium distribution of wage offers is continuous, the form of the distribution function is rather complicated. The paper concludes with a short discussion on identifying the structural parameters of the model, using micro panel data on worker spells of unemployment, wages earned, and employment spell lengths. 16
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