Astrological Accuracy
Cora Smallwood & Valarie Coles
Hanover College
Abstract
This study was designed to examine astrological accuracy and the Barnum effect
(the tendency to accept a description of oneself even when it is so vague as to
apply to anyone). Participants (N=19) were randomly assigned to either an
accurate (came from the correct zodiac sign) horoscope and traits or a false
(researchers made it up from parts of random horoscopes) horoscope and traits.
Participants completed a 2-part, 15 question questionnaire about horoscope use
and they judged the accuracy of the horoscope and traits they received. People
who believed in astrology were more likely to believe their horoscope was
accurate. People who received an accurate horoscope judged it to be slightly but
not significantly more accurate than participants who received a false horoscope.
Future researchers could try to find out if giving the horoscope for the next day
Results
Our hypotheses are: Those who believe in astrology will rate the horoscopes as
more accurate; People presented with their correct horoscope will view it as no
We predicted that whether or not a person believed in astrology, they would still agree with the
more accurate than people presented with an incorrect horoscope.
horoscope and personality traits associated with their zodiac sign. Belief in astrology and Judgment of
In order to test our hypothesis, the participants were randomly assigned to
accuracy of horoscope and traits were scored together with the number of items being 7 and the
either the correct or incorrect horoscope group and given a horoscope and list of
Cronbach’s Alpha being 0.78. The correlation between belief in astrology and the judgment of accuracy
traits. The participants read both the traits and the horoscope, then they filled
of horoscopes and traits is positively correlated with more acceptance of a particular horoscope. The
out the questionnaire, which asked about the accuracy of the information given
correlation is r(19)=0.431, p-value is 0.033. The correlation for true horoscope is r(11)=0.576, p-value is
to them. The participants, generally, took about ten minutes to complete the
.032. The correlation for false horoscope is r(8)=0.314, p-value is .224. We ran an independent samples
questionnaire. Before leaving, the participants were given a written debriefing,
t-test comparing the false horoscope to the true horoscope using accuracy of horoscope as the
thanked for their participation, and were dismissed.
dependent variable. The results are t(17) = -.610, p-value is 0.550; this was a 2-tailed test. This tests the
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Barnum effect: do people tend to think that any horoscope is accurate, perhaps in part because it is so
vague?
affects how participants act throughout the day by having them take a follow up
Discussion
This study was designed to examine astrological accuracy and the Barnum effect (the
tendency to accept a description of oneself even when it is so vague as to apply to
anyone). The Barnum effect was supported because people who received correct
horoscopes did not rate them as significantly more accurate than people who received
inaccurate horoscopes. Like Glick, Gottesman, and Jolton (1989) and Hamilton (2001), we
found that the more that people believed in astrology generally, the more they believed
that a particular horoscope was accurate.
Some limitations are present in our research. We sent our link to close friends,
classmates and people we know. This sparked a major concern of having a small sample
that was unrepresentative of the population. It was a majority female sample. The only
(little to none) male representation in our sample was not enough to be able to conclude
questionnaire.
that men believed in astrology as much as women do. We had mainly sophomores and
juniors take the questionnaires but they were mostly our friends or people we knew so
that could not represent the sophomore and junior population as a whole. Another
limitation could be how we made our inaccurate horoscopes. The inaccurate horoscopes
were composed of two different horoscopes that were found online. This could have posed
Method
a problem because horoscope-savvy readers may have considered them artificial in some
Participants
way. That may be the reason why people found them slightly less accurate.
In this experiment, we had a total of 19 participants. We gathered our
If the study was to be redone, it could’ve included more of a lab study involving
participants from introductory psychology courses as well as personal
confederates to test if peer pressure plays a significant role in belief. People generally
Astrology, a form of pseudoscience, is defined as the study of the movements
acquaintances of us, the researchers. The distribution of demographics of this
believe in horoscopes because they want to have a sense of knowing what's going to
and relative positions of celestial bodies interpreted as having an influence on
study was 89% female, 11% male; 65% Caucasian, 25% African-American, and
happen in the future now, a sense of being able to have a predictable life, also being able
human affairs and the natural world. According to Merriam-Webster Dictionary a
10% Other. The age range was 18 to 23, the median age was 20.5, and the
to have something to believe in that lets them know that tomorrow is promised. This was
horoscope is advice and future predictions based on the date of a person's birth
average age for this group was 20.5. We collected a convenience sample: sent
one of our original ideas that wasn’t able to be taken into account in such a short study.
and the positions of the stars and planets. According to Newport & Strausberg
out an email to personal acquaintances with an invitation to participate as well
Taking a closer look into the importance of culture in belief, a bigger focus on the accuracy
(2001), a Gallup poll, more than 25% of the public believes in astrology, while
as a bulk email to other students and a sheet with the link that students can take
of Chinese astrology versus American astrology would have been able to figure out which
52% stated their disbelief in the topic. When asked about the scientific credibility
with them.
one people would be more inclined to believe. That would’ve been a great way to see if
of astrology, only 9% of all adults in 2001 reported that it is “Very scientific”
Materials
Chinese astrology, which is typically deemed as “original,” would have more weight. Finally,
versus the 56% of people who reported “Not at all scientific” (National Science
To conduct our experiment, we used a questionnaire. The questionnaire used is
a study to see if one would project a future horoscope on the following day. This would be
Foundation SRS, 2001).
produced of questions we made up ourselves. The questionnaire is designed to
a great idea to see whether or not reading a horoscope projected for the next day will
measure the knowledge the participants have on their astrological sign and the
cause the person to act upon what that horoscope says.
Astrological Accuracy
The idea of astrology and horoscopes have become a huge part of many cultures
traits associated to the sign. The questionnaire consists of 15 questions. The
worldwide and seems to influence actions, thoughts, and beliefs of millions of
questions were of 2 sets: measuring belief in astrology generally and measuring
people. Why do people believe in horoscopes? According to various studies,
accuracy of this particular horoscope and trait list. Some questions were: “I feel
someone who identifies themselves with astrology is more likely to accept a
like astrology applies to me”, “I feel like the personality traits are accurate” and “I
horoscope as accurate than nonbelievers. As stated in Glick, Gottesman, and
feel like the horoscope is accurate”. The participants read the traits and the
Gottesman, and Jolton (1989) and Hamilton (2001), we found that the more that people
Jolton (1989), overall, believers were more likely than skeptics to accept
horoscope and then were given a questionnaire about how accurate they felt the
believed in astrology generally, the more they believed that a particular horoscope was
descriptions as accurate. Another fact from Glick, Gottesman, and Jolton (1989)
information was. Sample horoscope: “When opportunity knocks on your door,
accurate.
stated that people given socially favorable horoscopes or descriptions, regardless
you don't always have to open it. Be careful not to become a person who always
of belief, will judge them to be more accurate. Even those who do not believe in
says 'yes' because you think being busy is always a good way to be. It's time to
astrology are more likely to change in light of a favorable description. Astrological
get a lot more particular about what you get involved with…” Sample list of traits:
traits that aligned more with socially accepted ideas were accepted much more
“Intelligent, Innovative, Honest, Spontaneous, Inquisitive.”
than traits viewed in a negative light: “...one determinant of acceptance of
Procedure
astrology is the favorableness, or social desirability, of the particular character
Participants were told that the study was designed to see whether or not people
analysis it offer” (Hamilton, 2001). “...Skeptics who received favorable
believed the traits associated with their zodiac sign and whether or not they also
horoscopes became significantly more positive in their opinions toward
believed the horoscope associated with their zodiac sign. The interested
astrology” (Glick, Gottesman, & Jolton, 1989). The findings of both Glick,
participants went to the link provided and were assigned randomly to either the
Gottesman, and Jolton, and Hamilton both found that the desirability of the
correct or incorrect group after pressing ‘continue’. Upon entering the site, they
horoscope is one factor leading to acceptance. Some research has shown that if a
read and agreed to the informed consent form. After a short demographics
person’s cultural background supports astrological affiliation, then they would be
section, each participant was asked a few questions about how they felt about
more likely to believe a false list of traits (Rogers & Soule, 2009). In multiple
astrology. They were then asked what their zodiac sign was and given a
countries around the world, China especially, astrology is a big part of the
horoscope and list of traits. The participants completed the questionnaire. The
culture, although slightly different than the astrology typically seen in the US.
participants generally took about 10 minutes or less to complete the
Since it appears that the results in these studies have similar outcomes, the
questionnaire. After submitting the questionnaire, the participants were thanked
purpose of this study will be to see if our results are parallel with them.
for their participation and given a debriefing form.
In conclusion, our study found that people given socially favorable horoscopes or
descriptions, regardless of belief, will judge them to be more accurate. The Barnum effect
Figure 1. Shows the means of the accuracy of the true and false horoscopes
Figure 2. Shows the correlation of the belief of astrology versus the belief of horoscope
r(19)=0.431, p-value is 0.033
was supported because people who received correct horoscopes did not rate them as
significantly more accurate than people who received inaccurate horoscopes. Like Glick,
References
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