J. OF PUBLIC BUDGETING, ACCOUNTING & FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, 20 (1), 46-71 SPRING 2008 THE CHANGING FEDERAL GRANT STRUCTURE AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON STATE AND LOCAL COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS Jeremy L. Hall* ABSTRACT. Changing political landscape often renews the call for dramatic changes to federal community and economic development grant-in-aid programs. The most dramatic proposal in recent years was President Bush’s 2006 call to consolidate federal assistance programs for communities into a new block grant known as the Strengthening America’s Communities Initiative (SACI). This conceptual study reviews key characteristics of intergovernmental transfers including grant types, features, changes in the intergovernmental fiscal environment, the fungibility/flypaper debate, and the symmetry/asymmetry response of governments to declining intergovernmental revenue. The effects of intergovernmental transfers on state and local governments are connected to differences in grant design features. Potential fallout from proposed or similar changes to grant structure is discussed using the SACI proposal as an example. INTRODUCTION Over time, the relationships between U.S. federal, state, and local governments have become increasingly complex as government has grown in size and breadth of services provided, as the number of local governments and special districts have increased, and as the roles of distinct layers of government have become blurred through --------------------------* Jeremy L. Hall, Ph..D., is Assistant Professor, Government and Public Service, University of Alabama at Birmingham. His research concentrations include economic development, public policy, government capacity, public performance measurement, and fiscal federalism. Copyright © 2007 by PrAcademics Press Deleted: y THE CHANGING FEDERAL GRANT STRUCTURE AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS 47 interaction among, rather than separation by, policy areas. Over time, the federal government has increased its stature in policy arenas previously left to state discretion. One of the primary mechanisms through which the federal government has acted to induce state policy reactions and increase state efforts is through intergovernmental fund transfers. Students of government have long been interested in the effects federal grants have on the sub-national governments they seek to assist. This study reviews the fiscal federalism literature to identify key characteristics of the federal intergovernmental transfer system, and to identify the effects of changing levels of federal grant support on state and local government budgets. This literature is brought to bear on the 2006 proposal to restructure federal community economic development assistance through consolidation of programs into a new block grant under President Bush’s Strengthening America’s Communities Initiative. BACKGROUND: FEDERALISM AND INTERGOVERNMENTAL RELATIONS Intergovernmental relations pertain to the dynamic of interaction between the levels of government in the American system. When considering issues of intergovernmental finance, such as taxing and spending, the term fiscal federalism is applied. “From its beginnings, the fiscal system of the United States has been committed to the principle that multiple layers of government are the preferred structure for the financing and provision of government services. The U.S. Constitution, through the Tenth Amendment, expressly protects the rights of states to pursue their own fiscal agendas, provided those agendas do not conflict with clearly legislated federal objectives or constitutionally protected individual rights” (Inman, 1988, p. 33). Federalism in the U.S. has undergone a major shift during the twentieth century from a model wherein each level of government has its own realm of duties, to a model where multiple layers of government may be involved in providing a given service. This general trend reflects increased power of the national government in dealing with affairs that were previously the sole responsibility of the states. This shift has been exacerbated by the increase in direct interaction between the federal and local governments (in addition to federalstate relations) during the period following the New Deal (O’Toole, 48 HALL 2000). Grants-in-aid soon became a very powerful tool of fiscal federalism. The Grants-in-aid system has enabled the federal government and Congress to wrest control of programs from the states, or at least to exert considerable influence over them. Federal grants-in-aid have a long and convoluted history, but are generally acknowledged to have begun in the nineteenth century, when the federal government granted land to state governments for the establishment of state ‘Land Grant’ universities (Nathan, 1983, p. 43). Hines and Thaler (1995) alternatively suggest intergovernmental aid was initiated in 1835 when, upon paying off the national debt and forecasting future budget surpluses indefinitely, Congress decided to distribute leftover funds to the states on the basis of population for the purpose of financing public works. Cash grants are the norm today. Use of the grant was not elevated to its current state of prominence until the middle third of the Twentieth Century, due primarily to the implementation of new programs in the 1930s and 1940s, such as Roosevelt’s New Deal and Johnson’s Great Society (Kettl, 1983). Theoretical literature regarding federal granting behavior and its related outcomes has only developed in the last quarter-century, primarily because cash grants themselves are such a recent development in federal fiscal relations. As Nathan (1983, p. 47) observed, “It is not surprising that the theoretical literature on grants does not have an extensive empirical base.” Intergovernmental Grants in Fiscal Federalism: Conceptual Issues Since the inception of grant making as a fiscal tool, various types of grants have been developed and utilized. They differ in features such as the method of allocation, the level of discretion afforded to the grantee, and the use and level of matching requirements. The primary distinction in grant types is between unconditional grants and conditional grants. Grants may have varying degrees of conditions attached to them, and may not fit neatly into one group or the other. However, unconditional grants refer to transfers from the federal government with no strings attached—no restriction on the types of expenditures that may be undertaken, and no requirement for local spending (matching funds). Conditional grants impose limitations on fund use, require local government matching funds, or impose other legislative or administrative requirements as a condition for receipt. THE CHANGING FEDERAL GRANT STRUCTURE AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS 49 As an example, general revenue sharing transferred lump sums of money to the states without any requirement for their use; this type of transfer epitomizes unconditional grants. On the opposite end of the spectrum are conditional grants, which require state matching funds, and/or which are to be spent on narrowly defined projects, or for specific purposes. Conditional grants reduce local discretion, and increase the federal government’s policy influence. In between are block grants which transfer lump sums of money to state/local governments for spending in certain policy areas, such as social services or community development. Generally such grants defer discretion for spending to the states with general federal guidelines. One of the key distinctions between conditional and unconditional grants is the matching requirement. Matching grants require the recipient government to expend own-source revenue on the funded program. Matching requirements may vary significantly from zero to unity with federal funding or beyond. The greater the matching requirement, the greater the conditionality of the grant, other things being equal. Unconditional grants include non-matching grants, such as revenue sharing or block grants; conditional grant types include matching grants, and project (categorical) grants. It should be noted that other things are usually not equal. Chubb (1985) introduces political and bureaucratic considerations to the model of fiscal federalism, taking the intergovernmental fiscal system as a hierarchy of principal-agent relationships wherein the federal political superiors are able to control state and local actions through the federal bureaucracy. However, Meier and O’Toole (2006) show that bureaucratic values moderate political control in bureaucratic outputs, noting that an appropriate principal-agent interpretation “would have to be rather convoluted” to explain their results (p. 188). Therefore, a complete understanding of the fiscal response of state and local governments to various grant structures can only be obtained by incorporating political and other considerations into the relevant economics. Another qualitative difference among grant programs is the degree of targeting versus distributional equity. Formula grants, which are distributed in lump sum to a government on the basis of population (or some other designations), seek to evenly distribute funds across all recipients or beneficiaries. Formula grants to schools are based on the number of students, such that each student Deleted: ; 50 HALL theoretically receives the same benefit from the grant. On the other hand, federal grants may be targeted to specific areas on the basis of need identified by income, poverty, or some other variable. Targeted grants seek to equalize differences between wealthy and poor areas or individuals. This structural difference helps us understand the political goals that grant programs may serve for both recipients and grantors. Federal policymakers’ goals and objectives have changed over time, generally corresponding to changes in party control in Congress and the presidency. The changes in federal grant-making policy have largely been attributed to differences in opinion regarding how aid should be distributed. First, there is a divide between those who favor targeting grant monies to areas that demonstrate the most need and those who favor equal distribution of funds on the basis of population. General revenue sharing is advanced as a means of achieving horizontal equity across geographical areas (Quigley & Rubinfeld, 1986). Categorical or project grants, on the other hand, are the predominant mechanisms for targeting aid to specific areas (Aronson & Hilley, 1986). A second divide pertains to the type of grant that should be used; namely, unconditional grants (such as revenue sharing or block grants) versus conditional grants (such as categorical or project grants). This difference entails a decision regarding the relative level of policy control the federal government wishes to maintain vis-à-vis state/local grant recipients. Categorical grants typically come in the form of project grants, which are competitive in nature, and often involve stringent requirements for how or for what purpose they may be spent (federal discretion). On the other hand, revenue sharing or block grants tend to favor state/local control over grant funds, with a vast reduction in federally-imposed spending restrictions (local discretion) (Conlan, 1984; Aronson & Hilley, 1986). Block grants are a hybrid grant form in that they allow state discretion in administration, but are limited to expenditure within certain topical categories. Although typically assumed to entail less federal discretion, block grants can be manipulated, as they were by President Carter, to greatly reduce state and local discretion (Conlan, 1984). These two typological areas overlap in that conditional grants tend to meet the needs of both increased federal control and THE CHANGING FEDERAL GRANT STRUCTURE AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS 51 targeting, and as unconditional grants serve to devolve responsibility to the states and equally distribute funds. History has demonstrated ideological differences along these lines, with Democrats favoring targeting and conditional grants, while Republicans typically support equal distribution (not to be confused with “equalization,” which is often coterminous with targeting) and a decreased federal role in dictating how funds should be used—typical of unconditional grants (Schneider & Ji, 1990). Determining Participation in Federal Grant Programs There are two schools of thought regarding participation in federal grant programs. Some suggest that the federal government determines who will or will not receive aid. The fact that a federal decision must be made is implicit. However, Rich (1989) suggests this view should be expanded to include considerations of recipient government preferences; that is, governments may choose, for whatever reason, not to receive a particular federal grant. Recipient discretion is essential to understanding the effects that federal grant spending might have on state budgets and to explaining what actions states take, such as nonparticipation. Stein (1984) finds that local governments avoid the negative fiscal and political consequences of federal aid, which suggests that states/localities do not necessarily participate just because they are deemed eligible. That is, they are utility maximizers, not budget maximizers. In summarizing previous models of federal grant-making, Rich (1989, p. 198) explains: The major flaw in the models of distributive politics…is an overemphasis on a centralized, top-down view of policy distribution. While the subject of inquiry is the distribution of federal expenditures, most studies have failed to incorporate federal features into their conceptualizations of the dynamics of policy distribution; that is, by focusing on the role of presidents, legislators, and bureaucrats, scholars have ignored a class of participants that have become key actors in the distribution of federal aid—the recipient jurisdictions. Indeed, for many federal programs, state and local governments are the key decision makers in regard to the distribution of federal aid, for they are the ones who decide 52 HALL whether or not to apply for aid, how much to ask for, and how often they will seek assistance. Federal government sets policy and makes funds available, but subnational governments make choices about programs the federal government has put in place. The opposing view is that budget maximization may take the place of utility maximization as Leviathan governments seek to increase their size and power (Quigley & Rubinfeld, 1986). Some government recipients frame the grant decision in terms of how to spend, whereas others frame the issue in terms of whether to spend or reduce taxes (Nathan, 1983). Lower-level governments make choices that impact the influence federal grants may have. Grants are also used as electoral tools; congressional leaders use their clout with federal agencies to direct grant funds to their district to build political capital necessary for reelection. On the flip side, bureaucrats may allocate grant funds strategically to maintain influence with key congressional leaders (Rich, 1989). Congressional earmarks are specially-tailored bits of legislation for pet projects of the Congressperson’s choosing. Earmarks are typically for specific tasks and projects, and closely resemble categorical project grants. These powerful political tools may be used to garner electoral support, and unlike most federal grants, the preferences are determined by the local government, perhaps in negotiation with their delegate(s). Rivlin (1991) advocates a significant shift in federalism for the future: “the states should have much clearer responsibility for most kinds of public investment, especially for improving skills of the labor force and upgrading public infrastructure. The federal government should concentrate on a different set of missions, including interaction with the rest of the world, strengthening social insurance, and contributing to national saving by running a surplus in the unified federal budget” (Rivlin, 1991, p. 3). Such drastic differentiation of goals and responsibilities would represent a complete reversal of intergovernmental relations, returning the nation to a state of dual federalism, as it was through the early 1900s. Rivlin’s view conforms to Peterson’s (1995) functional and legislative theories of government activity. Each level of government, through unique resources, conditions, and expertise, is able to THE CHANGING FEDERAL GRANT STRUCTURE AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS 53 provide certain services with greater efficiency than other levels of government. Peterson argues that state and local governments should be involved in developmental policy, while the national government should concentrate on redistribution to alleviate inequity across areas. While Peterson might argue that the federal government should have little or no role in development, he could conceivably argue that they have a legitimate role in redistributing wealth. In this scenario, the purest form of federal grant would be targeted to areas of economic need (redistribution), with no restrictions on the ultimate use of those funds (preserving the state’s role to carry out development). Federal grants to distressed areas would generate effects that lead to equalization over time, through economic improvements resulting from the grant-funded activities. Neither argument has been so widely agreed-upon to drastically alter the course of federal policy toward intergovernmental transfers. In fact, it is implicit in the nature of federal grants that strings come attached. “[T]he federal government has provided intergovernmental aid for two reasons, to give financial assistance to often hard-pressed state and local governments, and to induce these governments to administer programs with national goals” (Kettl, 1983, p. 24, emphasis added). Kettl (1983, p. 42) adds that these two goals have always been incompatible—every grant recipient desires maximum discretion in using it, and every donor wants to maintain at least some control over the money given; “the federal government never gives money without strings attached.” Levine and Posner (1981) observe that federal grants entice state and local government participation by lowering the cost to the sub-national governments of performing the aided activity. Perceived cost reduction leads to reduced policy discretion on the part of state and local governments as they invest own-source revenue in projects of federal interest rather than programs of their own preference. Schneider and Ji (1990, p. 409) note, “Reductions in aid and the move away from targeting, which resulted from changing conditions and shifting ideologies at the national level, clearly affected the incentives and propensities of local governments to apply for aid.” Not only do state and local governments have a choice, but the extent of that choice is changing over time with changes in the structure of the federal granting system. 54 HALL Discretion, or conditionality, is directly related to matching requirements. The federal government may desire to increase local investment in particular types of service, and may communicate that desire through requirements that grantees contribute a percentage of the total project cost. Grants may come with (conditional) or without (unconditional) match requirements and the level of required match can vary significantly. Matching requirements imply that local spending is fostered, which translates into increased debt, or increased taxes, or substitution for some other local program. At any rate, matching requirements should lead to an increase in state and local government spending levels (Gramlich, Courant, & Rubinfeld, 1979). The following section clarifies the relationships between federal grant features and state/local budgetary effects. Effects of Federal Funds on State Budgets: Flypaper v. Fungibility The majority of existing federal grants literature, both conceptual and empirical, addresses how sub-national recipients treat federal grant funds in their budgets. Two conflicting perspectives—fungibility versus flypaper—dominate discussion. Fungibility refers to the ability of state and local governments to use federal funds as a replacement for locally generated revenue. Thus, if a state received a federal grant in the amount of $1 million, those funds would be said to be fully fungible if the state reduced the tax burden on its citizens by the same amount. The net effect on state spending would be nil; the state would continue to expend at its preferred level in spite of the grant receipts. The flypaper effect signifies that the local government uses the federal grant to increase spending over and above its preferred level. Flypaper occurs when state/local spending increases by less than the amount of a grant, but greater than the increase that would occur from an equal increase in local income (Volden, 1999). The flypaper effect is best summarized as “grant funds [that] tend to be spent rather than passed on to constituents via tax cuts” (Logan, 1986, p. 1304). For example, if state spending were $10 million prior to receiving a $1 million grant, post-grant state spending might be $10.8 million. If the $1 million grant had been distributed among the jurisdiction’s constituents rather than to the state, the state spending level might only increase to $10.1 million. The theoretical explanation for flypaper’s existence is referred to as fiscal illusion. Simply, local residents perceive the burden of grant funds to fall disproportionately on residents of other jurisdictions. Empirical Deleted: , THE CHANGING FEDERAL GRANT STRUCTURE AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS 55 evidence suggests that some degree of flypaper effect occurs, causing the money to “stick where it hits” (Logan, 1986, p. 1304). Funds are spent rather than passed along to constituents through tax cuts. Discussion in the literature surrounds the degree of flypaper effect observed (Hines & Thaler, 1995). In his statements regarding the distribution of the federal surplus to the states in 1835, Henry Clay predicted that the effects of this distribution would stimulate state spending by much more than economic theory suggests (Hines & Thaler, 1995). A grant reduces the price that the recipient government has to pay, making the funded activity more attractive than it would have been without the federal assistance (Levine & Posner 1981). Nathan and Doolittle (1985) found that in general state/local governments have good reasons for avoiding substitutive behavior with federal funds, including “unreliability of federal aid,” and the fact that “federal regulations prohibit or discourage substitution in many programs” (p. 54). Empirical evidence has “found time and again that the expenditure stimulus to local public programs…far exceeds that from equal increases in private income” (Gamkhar & Oates, 1996, p. 501). Moreover, “[a]ll studies report some degree of flypaper. The variation comes from whether the estimated flypaper effect is simply large or if it is enormous” (Hines & Thaler, 1995, p. 219). The flypaper effect may be attributable to the way in which a local government frames federal grant receipts. Rather than a choice between increased spending and decreased taxes, governments may frame the decision in terms of how the money should be spent (Hines & Thaler, 1995). ‘Leviathan’ governments seek to maximize their budgets rather than maximize utility (Quigley and Rubinfeld, 1986). In maximizing the budget, local governments may adopt federal priorities rather than the priorities of the local median voter, leading to dependency (Hedge 1983). Garand (1988) posits that flypaper effects are responsible for increases in government growth as state governments use federal grants to increase the level of public goods they provide. Recent studies identify flypaper effects in specific policy areas, such as transportation obligations (Gamkhar, 2000), education (Fisher & Papke, 2000), and welfare (Volden, 1999). A study of federal aid effects on county governments concludes the flypaper effect can only be considered as a function of combined tax illusion and grant Deleted: or 56 HALL illusion (Mitias & Turnbull, 2001). Outside the U.S., Slack (1980) found intergovernmental transfers in Canadian government in 19745 increased municipal expenditures. The Indian federal system has also seen flypaper effects resulting from unconditional intergovernmental grants (Lalvani, 2002). The alternative fungibility philosophy suggests that the flypaper effect does not occur, and that recipients assimilate federal funds into current revenues, reducing the cost of public services through a reduction in local taxes. A dollar in tax revenue can be substituted by a dollar of intergovernmental revenue. The use of federal funds as a substitute for local revenues has led to federal program provisions to prevent pure substitution, such as the ‘but for’ clause in the Urban Development Action Grant [UDAG] program, “which stated that the project would not be developed except for the presence of the UDAG” (Watson, Heilman & Montjoy, 1994, p. 8) Bradford and Oates (1971) theorized that lump-sum grants should have allocative and distributive effects no different than if these funds were distributed in a particular lump-sum pattern to the residents of the locality. Fiscally hard-pressed jurisdictions that have used grant funds to substitute for local revenue have suffered from withdrawal of federal assistance (Nathan, 1983). Stein (1984) finds that strong reliance on federal aid over time leads to treatment of federal revenues as if they were locally generated own-source revenue. Zampelli (1986) advocates stringent regulation of federal grants to prevent fund reallocations, and to prevent fungibility from limiting local implementation of federal priorities. These two philosophies explain how federal grant money may be incorporated into state/local budgets, and they are imperative to understanding empirical assessments that seek to demonstrate causality between federal funding and state budgetary reactions. Conflicting empirical results in support of both flypaper and, to a limited extent, fungibility, might suggest that the relationship is a continuum rather than a dichotomy, where variations in local conditions, federal restrictions and grant structure determine a given grant effect’s position on the continuum. Bae and Feiock (2004) add local government institutional characteristics as explanatory variables in flypaper scholarship, finding flypaper effects more likely to occur in cities with Mayor-Council forms of government than cities with a Council-Manager structure. The Mayor-Council form produces THE CHANGING FEDERAL GRANT STRUCTURE AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS 57 incentives for local leaders to maximize their budgets in Leviathan tradition, whereas the Council-Manager form presents restrictions that prevent departure from the median voter model through a structure that separates those making policy (the council) from those actuating policy (the manager). Most studies that find evidence of the flypaper effect also acknowledge that the increase in local spending is somewhat less than the amount of the grant received. State/local governments utilize a portion of grant proceeds to offset own-source expenditure (if not elsewhere, as indirect costs). Even if some funds are used to substitute for local revenue, flypaper can still exist if the increase in local spending exceeds the increase that would occur from an equal increase in local resident income. Giving and Taking Away: Response to Decreasing Federal Aid Debate continues over whether the flypaper response occurs in reverse. Do reductions in federal aid lead to greater reductions in local spending than an equivalent reduction in private income? The response to falling federal aid can take one of three forms. First, a reduction in federal aid can lead to reduction in state/local spending by less than the reduction but more than from an equal reduction in local resident income. This condition is a symmetrical response, or flypaper in reverse. Two other conditions may occur under such reductions, both of which are asymmetrical responses. A decrease in federal funds may lead to no change in state or local government spending, meaning the lower level government maintained spending levels by replacing the lost federal revenue with local revenue through increases in taxes or fees. This response is termed the fiscal replacement asymmetry. Reduction in federal aid may also lead to greater than expected reduction in local expenditures, meaning the lower level government severely cuts spending—beyond the amount of the grant funds—in light of the federal cuts (Gamkhar & Oates, 1996). This response is termed fiscal restraint or fiscal retrenchment. Nathan and Doolittle (1985) and Gamkhar (2000), find different results under different conditions. Nathan and Doolittle (1985) find that symmetry was the status quo, but communities that were more favorable to spending (liberal) and had stronger fiscal health replaced federal funds with own source revenues. Gamkhar’s (2000) study of federal transportation obligations—the precursor to 58 HALL the grants and the basis of state spending decisions—uses a lagged measure to match funding activities with the longer lifespan of construction projects in the transportation field. This study revealed evidence of all three responses for different timeframes. In the current year, reductions in federal aid led to greater than expected spending cuts—evidence of fiscal restraint. In one and two-year lagged measures; on the other hand, the state spending response was symmetrical. The three years combined revealed that spending cuts led to fiscal replacement of federal revenues with own-source revenues by the states. The timeframe for completion of construction projects explains these results; in the case of lagged variables, the construction projects may be near completion, and the sunk costs of nearly completed projects are greater than those of projects in planning or design phases. Several studies find evidence that flypaper effects are symmetrical between federal grant increases and decreases (Gamkhar & Oates, 1996; Stine, 1994; Nathan & Doolittle, 1985). Empirical analysis strongly favor the symmetric effects hypothesis: “State and local spending rises an average of 47 cents for each additional dollar of non-matching grants. When non-matching grants fall,…the expenditure response of state and local government is roughly similar in magnitude to their response to an increase in such monies” (Gamkhar & Oates, 1996, p. 509). Matching grants demonstrate a much larger stimulative effect on spending than nonmatching grants, but still with no evidence of asymmetry (Gamkhar & Oates, 1996). Numerous studies find fiscal replacement asymmetry in response to federal grant reductions (Holcombe & Stroup, 1996; Hedge, 1983; Volden, 1999; Lalvani, 2002; Stein, 1984). Once spending has increased it is difficult to reduce it again (Holcombe & Stroup. 1996). Hedge (1983) finds dependence led West Virginia state agencies to pursue budget allocations from own-source revenue through lobbying and larger budget requests. Declining federal aid for AFDC resulted in fiscal replacement, a change also attributed to the burgeoning bureaucracy and its ability to argue for funding increases (Volden, 1999). Stein (1984, p. 641) observes, “If, as has occurred under the Reagan administration, aid is severely reduced, city officials are left with a significant revenue gap and the potential for fiscal and political Deleted: , Deleted: , THE CHANGING FEDERAL GRANT STRUCTURE AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS 59 insolvency.” Once federal aid has increased the workforce, subnational governments face a choice to reduce employment, or to raise own-source revenues to close the gap left by declining federal grant funding. Little empirical evidence supports the notion that states cut spending in response to declines in federal aid. Only Gamkhar (2000) found evidence of retrenchment in one specification of the model. Any reduction in spending, whether symmetrical to or greater than the flypaper effect (retrenchment), will result in a reduction of government efforts in that policy area. This would lead to reduced public services, and where services are to be reduced, tough political questions. Who will lose benefits? Will benefits be equally reduced? Which program should be cut? If the program was predominantly funded through federal grants, the decision to maintain that service may lead to reductions in other state/local programs to finance the activity. Alternatively, fiscal replacement will result in maintained service levels or increases in services, but at the cost of increased taxes on local residents and businesses. Over time, the illusion of price and income may disappear, and the cost of the services borne by the local constituents will become more obvious. Long-Term Effects: Federal Aid Dependency and Withdrawal Dependency is widely recognized in the literature (Hedge, 1983; Stein, 1981; Stein, 1984), with differences state/local government reactions to perceived dependency. Some fear that any recipient government will become dependent upon federal funds if exposed to a stream of federal funding over the long term (Stein, 1981). Others fear governments may avoid federal funding altogether for fear of becoming dependent, or that they may only use federal funds for onetime expenditures such as capital projects (see Nathan, 1983). Grant characteristics may have a great deal to do with whether or not states/localities become dependent on federal funding. Consequently, a state’s reluctance to become dependent may lead it to seek only project grants, missing opportunities that may result from discretionary revenue. Federal grants may have varied effects on recipient governments because those governments differ in political environment (the way they perceive the federal grants) and fiscal condition (their ability to raise local revenues or their need for outside assistance) (Nathan & Doolittle, 1985; Stein, 1984). 60 HALL Localities that suffer from declining population, minimal resources, or excessive poverty are more likely to become dependent on federal grant funding. Different governments react differently to the opportunities with which they are presented. Nathan (1983) alternatively suggests that dependency has nothing to do with what type of grants a government receives, over what period of time, or with relative local discretion in spending. Rather, he posits that the difference is in how the government treats the funds it receives—are they treated as general revenue, or are they maintained in a separate budget category so as not to affect local services in inconceivable ways? (Nathan, 1983). This may prove to be a strong predictive factor in determining the effects that cuts in federal aid have on the states and local governments. Governments’ response to changing levels of federal grants has recently been examined in the combined context of spending and public debt held by the states. State long term debt issuance effects are asymmetrical between increases and decreases in grants (Martell & Smith, 2004). The response is different, however, for different types of debt; full faith and credit debt is positively related to both matching and nonmatching grants, and the asymmetric response in periods of declining federal grants is characterized as fiscal replacement. That is, states tend to take on debt to replace decreasing federal funds. On the other hand, non-guaranteed debt issuance is negatively related to both matching and nonmatching grants, and the asymmetric response is characterized as fiscal restraint. When federal money declines, states tend not to replace it with non-guaranteed debt issuance. Because federal grants vary in their inherent expectations of and restrictions on sub-national governments,it is necessary to consider the likelihood that different types of grants may have different effects on state and local governments. Differences between block grants and categorical project grants, for example, may have implications for the way governments incorporate federal funding. Unconditional grant types, such as revenue sharing, previously, and block grants, presently, have fewer strings attached, and may be more likely to fall subject to substitution (fungibility) rather than supplementation (flypaper). Conditional grants, including project and categorical grants and matching grants tend to generate larger flypaper effects, whereas unconditional grants do so to a lesser degree. Conditional Deleted: , Deleted: , Deleted: THE CHANGING FEDERAL GRANT STRUCTURE AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS 61 grants should not foster dependency, whereas block grants or other unconditional funds may lead to long-term dependency on the federal government. CHANGING GRANT STRUCTURES IN COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT: POLICY AND PRACTICE The theoretical and empirical studies detailed above seek to improve our understanding of the aggregate effects of federal grants on state and local governments; over time, these studies have become more and more specific, with some focusing on local government (Stine, 1994), and with some focusing on particular policy areas such as transportation (Gamkhar, 2000) or education (Fisher & Papke, 2000). This section applies the existing literature to recent fiscal and political trends in the community development policy arena. The effects of grant types and structures on state/local budgetary responses, and state/local budgetary responses to reductions in federal funding provide fodder for discussion. Although federal spending in many policy areas (defense, for example) is increasing, there have been recent attempts to reverse that trend for community economic development, such as the Strengthening America’s Communities Initiative (SACI). President Bush’s proposal would have cut the total amount of available federal funds for community development from $5.31 Billion in FY 2005 to $3.71 Billion in FY 2006 (U.S. Department of Commerce, 2005). It is equally important that the suggested community development funding cuts were intended to be implemented through structural changes to the existing grant apparatus by consolidating eighteen existing grant programs, many of which are categorical or project grants, into a single block grant under the Strengthening America’s Communities Initiative (SACI).1 While most of the affected programs were project grants, the bulk of funding the proposal would have been drawn from the CDBG entitlement program—a formula grant (See Table 1). This structural change mirrors President Reagan’s effort in the early 1980s to devolve decision making authority back to the states by providing programs with fewer strings attached while reducing total federal spending. The action would have moved programs from five federal agencies into the U.S. Department of Commerce under one new block grant with incentive Deleted: the 62 HALL TABLE 1 Composition of Structure and Matching Requirements for Grant Programs Proposed to be Consolidated into SACI, by Agency Agency HUD Program Name CFDA # Grant Type Match Requirements 14.218 14.219 Formula Formula None noted None noted CDBG Set asides NCDI BEDI RHEC UEZ CDLS 14.227 14.246 14.25 14.244 14.248 Project Project Project Project Loans None noted Used in conj w/ loan None noted None noted None noted RBEG RBOG EIG REZEC 10.769 10.773 n/a 10.772 Alloc/Proj* Project 90% Formula Project None noted None noted n/a None noted CDFI BEA CDFNI 21.02 21.021 21.02 Project Project Project 1 to 1 None Noted 1 to 1 CSBG 93.569 93.57 n/a n/a Formula Project Project Project None None n/a n/a 11.302 11.303 11.3 11.307 11.312 11.313 Project Project Project Project Project Project 1 to 1 1 to 1 1 to 1 1 to 1 Waived 1 to 1 CDBG USDA Treasury HHS CED RCF Commerce EDA payments to communities that meet requirements (U.S. Dept. of Commerce, 2005). As noted in the previous discussion, block grant structures typically devolve discretion over spending to the states by reducing the number of strings attached and by broadening the eligible category of spending. The more flexible the resources, the more fungible they become, and the more likely local governments will become dependent on federal funding. This concurs with the stated goals of the SACI proposal: increasing communities’ “wide- THE CHANGING FEDERAL GRANT STRUCTURE AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS 63 ranging” flexibility in the use of federal funds (U.S. Dept of Commerce, 2005, p. 12). What are the implications for state/local governments as a result of the combined structural and funding changes that have been proposed? In the short term, the most obvious effect would be reduced federal funding for traditional community development activities by about 30 percent. According to the SACI proposal overview (U.S. Dept. of Commerce, 2005) most current recipients would remain eligible for funding, but an emphasis on targeting would result in fewer, larger awards to the neediest applicants. What reaction would state/local governments have if the proposal were approved? The change would create winners and losers, with some communities facing reduced federal aid while others would be seeing increased federal funds. Governments might deal with the change through some combination of increased taxes or debt (fiscal replacement), or with cuts to community development spending (fiscal restraint), or might trim budgets to reduce total spending while maintaining some community development spending. If funds are cut as SACI proposed, future analysis would very likely show that governments have grown dependent on entitlement funding but not on project grant receipts. It is noteworthy that the SACI proposal called to replace numerous project grant programs with unified block grant funding. Thus, a second question is: how would communities react to the new grant? Returning greater flexibility and decreasing restrictions on use of federal funds would advance the administration’s goal of returning discretion to local government, but it also poses the threat of new dependency on federal government aid. (This effect would be mitigated somewhat by the reduced number of awards and increased targeting SACI proposed.) Institutional structure is expected to be an important determinant of local government response to changes such as those proposed by SACI as well. Unreformed governments lack diversity in strategy for economic development, particularly in areas of greatest need (Feiock & Cable, 1992), and they are more likely to demonstrate flypaper effect in response to intergovernmental aid (Bae & Feiock, 2004). Thus, local governments with greater need and Mayor-Council structures of governance are most likely to be dependent on federal aid. Reform charter governments (Council-Manager) may mitigate the 64 HALL negative effects of reduced but less-restricted federal aid for development. This does not imply that Mayor-Council governments should amend their charters in anticipation of federal aid reductions; rather, they should be cognizant of potential dependency in their approach to federal grants. How might state/local governments react to increased discretion afforded by a new block grant structure? Match requirements vary considerably among current programs that were proposed for consolidation into SACI. For example, the HUD programs typically lack matching requirements; while programs under the Economic Development Administration fund only fifty percent of total project costs (see Table 1). So, while programmatic changes increase flexibility, eliminating match requirements from some programs would also advance that purpose. Increased flexibility and discretion may make payments more fungible, such that over time dependency may increase, or federal funds are used to replace local revenues to maintain spending. Traditionally, block grant structures have deferred discretion to state/local governments resulting in more local flexibility. If federal funds for community economic development in years past increased local spending, state/local reductions in response to reduced federal aid would be of particular interest. Symmetrical or fiscal retrenchment reductions could cause communities to face a number of pitfalls. For example, fiscal retrenchment in times of decreased federal funds may mean decreased program offerings or poor program outcomes. Fiscal replacement would mean increased local debt burden or taxes. Amid spending cuts, leaders must make tough decisions; first, whether to continue programs or to cut programs, and if the former, whether to seek alternate own-source funding or to stretch existing local dollars to their maximum potential. As history repeats itself, federal programs will be added and altered; as power changes hands, pressures will likely emphasize categorical grants at some point in the future, and spending may increase. Local governments should be wary of the potential effects of shifts between block grant and project grant structures as they plan for and utilize federal revenues. Whether under the existing programs or under some new composite program like the proposed SACI, grant characteristics and local Deleted: , THE CHANGING FEDERAL GRANT STRUCTURE AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS 65 characteristics coalesce to determine the effects grants will have on long-term local viability and community development success. SACI failed in FY 2006; Congress broadly rejected the proposed initiative, demonstrated by the following excerpt from S. Rept. 109109 (U.S. Senate, 2005, p. 153): The administration has proposed to eliminate the Community Development Block Grant [CDBG] program by consolidating CDBG activities, and most of the set-asides within the Community Development Fund, into a new economic development block grant… Under the proposal, some 18 programs, including CDBG, HUD Brownfields program, and the Rural Housing and Economic Development program, would be terminated and/or merged into the new block grant. Proposed funding for all these programs would total $3,700,000,000 instead of the overall $5,640,000,000 which funded these programs in fiscal year 2005. This represents a reduction of $1,940,000,000 or 34.2 percent from fiscal year 2005 levels…The Committee has rejected the entire proposal since it would undermine HUD's mission and essentially strip HUD's scope of activities to almost only housing programs. Local governments can rest easier with the knowledge that Congress rejected SACI in 2006, but there is evidence that many agree with the proposal’s merit; assuming it will not appear in future budgets is naïve. To illustrate, Senate Appropriations Committee recommendations generally restored funding to FY 2005 levels, but the House Appropriations Committee followed the administration’s recommendation to zero-out some program budgets (such as Community Development Loan Guarantee Program) and recommended reducing CDBG funding by $250,000,000 (U.S. Senate, 2005; U.S. House of Representatives, 2005). CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION Studies investigating the effects of federal grants on state/local budgets have not been conclusive. In spite of some disagreement, the broad consensus among fiscal federalism scholars is that federal grants do induce local governments to increase their spending by more than if they had an equal increase in local resident income. Studies that confirm the flypaper effect find that local spending 66 HALL increases by an amount less than the grant amount, with variation in the actual amount. Matching or conditional grants induce a greater spending response than unconditional or non-matching grants. These findings suggests need for improved specification of the variables in question to better understand the relationship of grant types and local government characteristics, such as tax base, in determining the local government response. Federal grants lead state and local governments to increase spending by altering the perceived price of services. Unconditional grant receipts are more likely to be substituted for own-source revenue in state/local budgets, leading to a lower spending increase than would result from a conditional grant. It follows that project or categorical grants and matching grants (conditional grants) are more subject to the flypaper phenomenon, and should demonstrate higher local government spending than their unconditional counterparts. Flypaper is observed in both cases, but to a greater extent in the case of conditional grants than entitlement grants. Over time, local governments may become dependent on streams of federal revenue, which may weaken their fiscal footing in times of federal cutbacks. Fiscally weak jurisdictions have been shown to be more susceptible to dependency on federal aid. Dependency may relate closely to the type of grant the state is receiving; block grants afford more local discretion and less federal restriction, and more easily substitute for local revenue, while project or categorical grants have much greater federal control, and tend to be spent for their intended purpose. Nonrestrictive funds may foster dependency over time, leading governments to seek conditional grants to support their spending habits. Relatively little empirical analysis has examined the changes that take place in state/local budgets in response to reductions in federal intergovernmental transfers, such as the significant cuts early in the first Reagan administration. These studies have been inconclusive and most do not provide analysis to assess whether symmetrical or asymmetrical responses by local governments to federal grant reductions are the norm. (The exceptions are Gamkhar [2000], Stine [1994], and Gamkhar & Oates [1996]). Theory provides a basis for examining changes that have occurred in the recent past; however, the scope and aggregation problems within these studies limit their generalizability across time and location. THE CHANGING FEDERAL GRANT STRUCTURE AND ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS 67 Three state/local government responses to reductions in federal aid are possible; first, reduced federal funding may be mirrored by a spending reduction equivalent to the increase triggered by the grant (symmetry); second, reduced federal funding may be met with a greater reduction in local government spending (fiscal restraint, or fiscal retrenchment asymmetry); and third, reduced federal funding may be met with no significant reduction in state and local spending (fiscal replacement asymmetry). As in the case of flypaper effect, some evidence of each of these effects has been shown by empirical analysis (Gamkhar, 2000). Although evidence of each response has been found, the conditions under which each response is likely to occur remain unknown. State and local governments are not always distinguished in this literature, as both are recipients of federal aid, and as both are subject to the potential ramifications of federal aid with which we are concerned. They are, however, not equivalent. The matter of scale is relevant, as a federal grant typically constitutes a larger portion of local, than state, budgets. Local tax bases are not as broad, nor taxing capacities as great, as the states’, so federal cuts can not be absorbed by local governments as easily as they can at the state level. Furthermore, local governments may also receive additional assistance through state programs that can supplement or offset federal aid reductions; states have no further recourse. While current knowledge rests on a few studies that often consider state/local governments as equals, future empirical work must clarify these important distinctions to ensure more generalizable results. Future analysis will benefit from considering effects within policy areas in which numerous governments of different types are impacted. The 2006 SACI proposal provides impetus to be concerned about the effects of federal grants on local governments in the context of community economic development. Policy makers and administrators must be aware of the effects federal grants may have and structure decisions about whether to seek, and how to treat, federal aid around local conditions and preferences. Rather than focusing on the promise of greater flexibility, attention to potential pitfalls will lead to better decision making. 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