Project Proposal
The Hindu Kush-Himalayan
Hydrological Cycle Observing System
(HKH – HYCOS)
Establishment of a Regional Flood Information System
in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya
A regional component of the
World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS)
Full Project Document
June 2009
Submitted to: Government of Finland, Ministry for Foreign Affairs
Submitted by:
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD),
Kathmandu in collaboration with World Meteorological Organization,
WMO, Geneva
Table of Contents
ACRONYMS ....................................................................................................................................... i GLOSSARY/EXPLANATION OF TERMS .................................................................................. iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................. iv A. CONTEXT .................................................................................................................................. 1 A.1 Description of the sector ...................................................................................................... 1 A.2 Background to the physical and institutional landscape in the HKH region ....................... 3 A.2.1 Historical background to the project development ...................................................... 3 A.2.2 National and regional policies (existing protocols) and activities in the sector .......... 4 ™ The Indus Basin Treaty ........................................................................................................ 4 ™ The Ganges Treaty ............................................................................................................... 5 ™ The Mahakali Treaty ............................................................................................................ 5 ™ The Kosi Treaty ................................................................................................................... 5 ™ The Gandak Treaty .............................................................................................................. 5 ™ Data sharing agreement between China and India ............................................................... 5 ™ Flood forecasting and warning schemes between India and Nepal ..................................... 6 ™ Data sharing arrangement between Bhutan and India ......................................................... 6 ™ Data sharing arrangement between Bangladesh and India .................................................. 6 ™ Data sharing arrangement between Pakistan and India ....................................................... 6 ™ Data sharing arrangement between Bangladesh and Nepal ................................................. 6 A.2.3 Features of the river basins .......................................................................................... 6 A.2.4 Socio-economic and water resource indicators.......................................................... 12 A.3 HKH-HYCOS initiative ..................................................................................................... 13 A.3.1 The WHYCOS programme........................................................................................ 13 A.3.2 The HKH-HYCOS project ......................................................................................... 14 A.3.3 Other Regional initiatives .......................................................................................... 15 B. PROJECT JUSTIFICATION................................................................................................. 17 B.1 Problem analysis ................................................................................................................ 17 B.2 Strategic considerations ..................................................................................................... 20 B.3 Beneficiaries and benefits to be derived ............................................................................ 21 B.4 Expected end-of-project situation ...................................................................................... 23 C. PROJECT DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................... 23 C.1 Overall Objectives, Project Purpose and Results............................................................... 23 C.2 Project components ........................................................................................................... 24 C.3 Activity and Workplan ...................................................................................................... 28 D.1 Facilitating, implementing and executing partners in the project ..................................... 34 D.2 Management and reporting structure ................................................................................. 34 D 3 Responsibilities of project implementers ................................................................................ 35 D.3.1 Regional Steering Committee (RSC) ......................................................................... 35 D.3.2 Participating countries ............................................................................................... 36 D.3.3 Implementing and Coordinating Agency - ICIMOD ................................................. 37 D.3.4 Project Management Unit (PMU) .............................................................................. 37 D.3.5 Technical/Scientific Support Agency - WMO ........................................................... 38 E. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION.......................................................................................... 38 E.1 Project start-up ................................................................................................................... 38 E.2 Input requirements ............................................................................................................. 39 E.3 Project monitoring, reporting and evaluation .................................................................... 40 G. RISKS........................................................................................................................................ 41 H. SUSTAINABILITY ................................................................................................................. 42 List of Figures
Figure 1: River systems in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region ................................................. 2 Figure 2: General scheme of data collection and dissemination network .............................. 15 Figure 3: Status of Development of the WHYCOS programme .............................................. 15 Figure 4: Workplan for the HKH HYCOS project implementation .......................................... 33 List of Tables
Table 1: Area and population as shared by the countries of the GBM ..................................... 7 Table 2: Annual runoff of the major Himalayan rivers ................................................................. 9 Table 3: Socio-economic indicators of the region ...................................................................... 13 Table 4: Inventory of selected recent flood events in of the countries in the HKH region ... 19 Table 5: Responsibilities of the Regional Steering Committee ................................................ 36 Table 6: Responsibilities of the participating countries/national organizations ..................... 36 Table 7: Responsibilities of ICIMOD ............................................................................................ 37 Table 8: Summary responsibilities of the Project Management Unit ...................................... 37 Table 9: Summary responsibilities of WMO ................................................................................ 38 Table 10: Summary of cost estimate for the Project ................................................................ 39 Annexes
Annex 1: Logical Framework
Annex 2: Job descriptions of the professionals of the Project Management Unit (PMU)
Annex 3: Draft terms of reference for the Project Management Unit (PMU)
ACRONYMS
ADDG
Abu Dhabi Dialogue Group
APFM
Associated Programme on Flood Management
BMD
Bangladesh Meteorological Department
CWC
Central Water Commission (India)
DANIDA
Danish International Development Agency
DCP
Data Collection Platform
DMB
Disaster Management Bureau
DMC
Disaster Management Centre (India)
DSS
Decision Support System
FFD
Flood Forecasting Division (Pakistan)
FFWC
Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (Bangladesh)
GBM
Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins
GLOF
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood
GOI
Government of India
GTS
Global Telecommunication System
HKH – FRIEND
Hindu Kush-Himalayan Flow Regimes from International Experimental and
Network Data
HKH
Hindu Kush-Himalayas
HKH-HYCOS
Hindu Kush-Himalayan Hydrological Cycle Observing System
HMGN
His Majesty’s Government of Nepal
HYCOS
Hydrological Cycle Observing System
IMD
India Meteorological Department
IoE
Institute of Engineering (Nepal)
ICIMOD
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
JICA
Japan International Cooperation Agency
JRC
Joint River Commission
NEC
National Environment Commission (Bhutan)
NHSs
National Hydrological Services
NMSs
National Meteorological Services
NHMSs
National Hydrological and Meteorological Services
NIDM
National Institute for Disaster Management (India)
NOAA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
PMU
Project Management Unit
RGoB
Royal Government of Bhutan
RSC
Regional Steering Committee
i
SAARC
South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation
SADC
Southern African Development Community
SAWI
South Asia Water Initiative
TAR
Tibet Autonomous Region
USAID/OFDA
United States Agency for International Development, Office of US Foreign
Disaster Assistance
USGS
United States Geological Survey
WAPDA
Water and Power Development Authority
WIS
WMO Information System
WHYCOS
World Hydrological Cycle Observing System
WMO
World Meteorological Organization
ii
GLOSSARY/EXPLANATION OF TERMS
Implementing and Coordinating Agency
ICIMOD is an implementing and coordinating agency with the primary function of implementing and
coordinating the project. It will ensure that the implementation and coordination of the project is
done by jointly working through the national executing partners and in close collaboration with
WMO and the Regional Steering Committee.
Technical /Scientific Support Agency
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) will provide technical advisory services throughout
the implementation of the project. WMO will ensure that the project is implemented in accordance
with the WHYCOS concept in a regionally consistent manner.
Executing Partners
The actual execution of the project is undertaken by the owners of the project, that is, the
participating countries through their dedicated national agencies such as the National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs).
Project Management Unit (PMU)
A Project Management Unit (PMU) will be established at ICIMOD to carry out its implementing and
coordinating tasks.
Regional Steering Committee (RSC)
The Regional Steering Committee (RSC) is the body that provides technical guidance and support
to the project. It is composed of representatives from the Executing Partners (participating
countries and their main agencies entrusted with the national execution of the project) and the
Facilitating Organizations. The RSC may also be open to invited experts and other project-related
organizations in an observer capacity.
iii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The project proposal presented in this document is based on the results of a series of consultative
meetings with representatives of Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal and Pakistan, during
which the project was recommended for implementation.
Floods are a major natural disaster aggravating poverty in the Indus and Ganges-BrahmaputraMeghna (GBM) basins, which is home to over 600 million people and almost half of the world's
poor.
The Overall objective of the project is to minimise loss of lives and livelihoods by reducing flood
vulnerability in the HKH region with specific reference to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and
Indus river basins.
The Project purpose is timely exchange of flood data and information within and among
participating countries through an established and agreed platform which is accessible and user
friendly.
The project Results are as follows
•
•
•
•
•
Strengthened framework for cooperation on sharing regional flood data and information
among participating member countries.
Establishment of a flood observation network in selected river basins in the participating
countries.
Establishment of regional and national flood information systems to share real time data
and information and increase lead time.
Enhanced technical capacity of partners on flood forecasting and communication to the end
users.
Full-scale regional project planned and agreed among participating countries.
The general Project purpose indicators are as follows
•
•
•
•
An extension of the lead-time for flood warning in the basin(s).
A working model of the project demonstrated to national and local stakeholders.
Establishment of an information dissemination system to improve flood disaster
management and community response activities.
The applicability of a real-time flood information system proven and institutionalized.
The implementation is divided into five major components, namely: a framework for cooperation; a
regional flood observation network; a regional flood information system; enhanced capacity and
communication; and planning of an up-scaled fully integrated regional project. The cost of external
funding is estimated at US $ 2.7 million over three years.
The project is designed to provide immediate and full ownership of the project to the participating
countries. It will be executed by the relevant national institutions. The International Centre for
Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) will have an implementing and coordinating role.
WMO’s principal responsibilities will be in the areas of technical and conceptual backstopping.
iv
A.
CONTEXT
A.1
Description of the sector
The Hindu Kush – Himalayan (HKH) region is a vast complex of high mountains, intermountain
valleys, and plateaus shared by Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal
and Pakistan. It produces one of the world’s largest renewable supplies of freshwater and is the
source of ten of the world's largest rivers: the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Yangtze,
Yellow River, Irrawaddy, Salween, Amu Darya and Tarim (Figure 1). These rivers are vital for the
survival and well-being of more than a billion people, most of who live in the surrounding plains.
The extreme relief of the Himalaya, which rises from low lying plains to more than 8,000 metres
over a horizontal distance of a few tens of kilometres, imparts special characteristics to the river
systems. The enormous energy potential and numerous storage sites for the control on flow
variability are important factors for flood control, hydroelectricity, large scale irrigation and
navigation. By virtue of their length and enormous volumes, the rivers emerging from the Himalaya
extend their influence to an extremely large geographical area far beyond the limits of the
mountains.
The pattern of runoff from the Himalaya, its timing and intensity, is governed by the quantity and
distribution of precipitation, its form (rain or snow) and seasonality. The heaviest rainfall of the
summer monsoon occurs in the eastern Himalaya and produces the strongest impact on such
rivers as the Mekong, Brahmaputra and Ganges. In contrast, towards the northwest, the
predominance of high-altitude winter snowfall increases; thus the flow of the Indus is dependent
mainly on snowmelt and by ablation of some of the world’s largest glaciers outside of the polar
regions.
The spatial and temporal variation in water flow has impeded the uniform and continuous growth in
the effective utilization of this resource. The spatial variation is significant throughout the
Himalayan region and the temporal variation imposes immense difficulty for year-round water
utilization in the densely populated plains. Thus, water scarcity continuously afflicts some areas
while elsewhere croplands are flooded and settlements are inundated on a regularly recurrent
basis.
The traditional pattern of Himalayan water use has been dominated by irrigation and domestic
requirements of the mountain societies. The supply of drinking water in the mountains, with some
urban exceptions, still depends on direct drawing from streams and springs. Locally built irrigation
systems still function under the management of various types of village institutions. However, the
scale of this level of utilization is insignificant when compared with the total annual water
availability and the large areas where agriculture is entirely rain fed.
The need for flood control in the foothill areas to protect lowland interests is the primary motivation
for large-scale Himalayan water projects. However, with the transformation of the agricultural and
industrial economies of the plains demands for irrigation and hydroelectricity have accelerated.
Further, the rapid growth of urban areas has created enormous pressures for hydroelectricity to
complement the production of thermal plants, especially during peak periods. More recently, water
supplies for the major cities and for water transportation have become vital. All these pressures
have combined to promote the construction of large dams to ensure the necessary modulation of
water flow.
1
Figure 1: River systems in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region
2
Fighting poverty in the HKH region is a major socio-economic challenge, in which water resources
development is an essential component. Two approaches are being promulgated; one being
macro-level projects to better serve the needs of the lowland poor and the other being small-scale
interventions better suited to the mountain communities. This represents a two-pronged demand
which decision-makers will have to face for the future development and management of the vast
Himalayan water potential.
Dam construction has been most intensive on the Ganges and Indus river systems for a variety of
reasons, including proximity to urban centres and fertile agricultural lands and availability of water
storage sites. This is in contrast with water development projects on the Brahmaputra and the
Meghna which are largely only at a preliminary stage.
An important approach to non-structural flood management lies in the provision end-to-end flood
forecasting and warning services. In the international river basins of the HKH region this approach
has the greatest potential for regional co-operation. The flood forecasting and warning systems
need to be integrated with the overall disaster management activities, both nationally and
internationally. Riparian States need to agree on the free exchange of relevant hydrological data
among them on a real-time basis. In this connection, the value of satellite technology for the realtime transmission of data on high intensity rainfall and associated river stage should be recognized;
and for that purpose the installation of an adequate satellite-linked observation network throughout
the region is essential.
This project proposes the development of a regional flood information system to support flood
forecasting initially in the Indus and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river systems. Much
of the discussion and technical information provided will therefore focus mainly on these river
systems. A full description of the project is provided in Section C below.
A.2
Background to the physical and institutional landscape in the HKH region
A.2.1 Historical background to the project development
With the objective of developing a framework for a regional flood information system to support
disaster prevention and flood management, ICIMOD and WMO in May 2001, organized a highlevel consultative meeting on Regional Cooperation for Flood Forecasting and Information
Exchange. This meeting was supported by the US Department of State (Regional Environment
Office for South Asia), the US Agency for International Development, Office for US Foreign
Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA), and the Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA).
Participants from Bhutan, Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal and Pakistan by consensus agreed on
the need for sharing of high river flow data. They expressed interest in establishing a regional flood
information system based on the proven concept of the WHYCOS.
A Second High Level Meeting of Government representatives (Kathmandu, March 2003) led to the
continuation of this process. On the recommendation of the first of High Level Meeting, and as part
of the second phase of the project, (see Section C.1 below) a consultative panel was formed
comprising technical experts and governmental representatives from each of the participating
countries. Also, a website (www.southasianfloods.icimod.org) was developed as a platform for
sharing near real-time data and information. This regional initiative is funded by the US Department
of State (Regional Environment Office for South Asia) and USAID/OFDA. The first meeting of the
consultative panel was held in May 2002 with the objective of continuing the process to develop a
3
regional flood information system based on the WHYCOS concept. The meeting agreed on the
regional concept of a flood information system and recognized the need for existing bilateral
agreements to be enhanced to contribute to the regional exchange of flood-related data. The
participants also drafted a short, medium and long-term action plan to carry the process forward.
The Second High Level Meeting recommended that the participating countries should organize
National Consultations that would serve to identify national needs and priorities for timely and
accurate flood forecasting and for selecting basins for the testing of a regional flood information
system. The National Consultations were organized by the national agencies concerned in
collaboration with ICIMOD and WMO. The meetings were sponsored by US Department of State
(Regional Environment Office for South Asia) and the USAID/OFDA and were held in Bangladesh,
Bhutan, China, Nepal and Pakistan during the period July 2003 to March 2004. A detailed report of
each National Consultation is available as a separate document. A summary of the results of each
Consultation is presented in a separate document.
During the National Consultations, a Technical Meeting was considered necessary. Therefore, a
Technical Meeting on ‘Country and Regional Telecommunication Strategies, Data Management
and Dissemination of Regional Flood Information’ was held in Kathmandu, Nepal from 29
November – 1 December 2004. The meeting emphasised strengthening and building upon the
practical applications currently being carried out in each of the countries of the region. A major
achievement of the Technical Meeting was the consensus on a Regional Telecom Strategy.
Partner countries also identified and agreed to share between them important hydrological data
from selected stations during a Demonstration and Testing Phase during the monsoon season of
2005. The meeting also resulted in the decision of providing minor upgrades to a few of the
selected stations, and a plan for the conduct of a High Level Meeting in May 2005 to discuss and
endorse the project document. The summary of this meeting is presented in a separate document.
The High (Secretary) Level Meeting was held from 17-19 May 2005 in Thimphu, Bhutan. All the
countries participated and the participants recommended this project document for financing and
implementation. The summary of this meeting is presented in a separate document.
A.2.2 National and regional policies (existing protocols) and activities in the sector
It is widely recognized that floods in the HKH region cannot be totally controlled and that efforts
should therefore be directed towards reducing flood vulnerability and mitigating flood impact
through improved flood management. At the level of an international river basin effective flood
management calls for meaningful co-operation of the riparian countries. In the HKH region there
has been some success in sharing historical hydrological data and bilateral agreements between
countries have proven useful in flood forecasting. However, in the regional context, achievements
with regard to the sharing of real-time data and information on a regional scale, so critical for flood
management, have been limited.
A number of bilateral agreements on water have been forged in the region. Some of these are
summarized below.
™ The Indus Basin Treaty
This Treaty was signed in September 1960 by India and Pakistan. It took nine years to negotiate
and resolved a major conflict regarding sharing of common rivers. The Treaty provides a unique
solution in that it allocated three rivers, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, to India and the three other rivers,
Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, to Pakistan. Each country has unrestricted use of the waters of the
4
rivers allocated to it, with certain exceptions specified in the Treaty. The Treaty has worked well
since it was put in practice.
™ The Ganges Treaty
The Treaty was signed in December 1996 between India and Bangladesh for the sharing of the
Ganges waters at Farakka by ten day periods from 1 January to 31 May every year. Although the
Treaty is about sharing the lean season flow of the Ganges, it has enunciated a broader cooperation framework to move forward with Treaties/Agreements for sharing the waters of other
common rivers and for shaping other mutually beneficial co-operation arrangements. Apart from
some initial problems during the first year of implementation, the Treaty has worked well.
™ The Mahakali Treaty
This treaty was signed in 1996 by India and Nepal concerning the integrated development of the
Mahakali Basin. This landmark treaty deals with development of the Mahakali River which is a
border river between India and Nepal, between Uttaranchal and Western Nepal. It regulates the
use of the water resources of the Mahakali River at the Sharda barrage and the Tanakpur barrage
and proposes the construction of a multipurpose storage dam on the Mahakali River.
™ The Kosi Treaty
This treaty was signed in April 1954 by India and Nepal. The treaty is mainly for the purpose of
flood control, irrigation and generation of hydroelectric power. The treaty was amended in
December 1966 clarifying the undertakings by India and withdrawal of water by Nepal. The IndiaNepal Agreement on the Kosi Barrage Project also provided for investigations of storage dams on
the Kosi or its tributaries. This project is envisaged with two dam sites at Barahkshetra and Kurule
respectively.
™ The Gandak Treaty
This treaty was signed by India and Nepal in December 1959. The main aim of the treaty was in
the common interest of the Nepal and India for Irrigation and Power. It was to construct a barrage,
canal, head regulators and other appurtenant works for purpose of irrigation and development of
power for Nepal and India.
™ Data sharing agreement between China and India
The Chinese and Indian governments reached an agreement on information exchange for the
Yarlungzambo /Brahmaputra River in April 2002. According to the agreement, China is providing
near real time hydrological information from three hydrological stations located in the mainstream
of the Yarlungzambo /Brahmaputra River, namely Nugesha, Yangcun, and Nuxia, in the flood
season from June 1st to October 15th each year.
During the April 2005 visit of H.E. Mr. Wen Jiabao, Premier of the state council of China to India,
bilateral relations and international and regional issues of common concern were discussed. It was
agreed that the two countries would continue to co-operate in exchanging flood season
hydrological data on the Yarlungzambo River. There was an agreement on the provision of
hydrological data on Langqen/Sutlej and cooperation to mitigate the risk posed by the landslide
dam on the Parechu river. Further arrangements on data sharing are being explored for the
Parlung Zangbo and Zayu Qu/ Lohit Rivers.
5
™ Flood forecasting and warning schemes between India and Nepal
A joint scheme under the name Flood Forecasting and Warning System on Rivers Common to
India and Nepal is in operation between India and Nepal. An action plan was agreed between His
Majesty’s Government of Nepal (HMGN) and Government of India (GOI) in December 1993 under
which the logistic problems for commissioning of sites under flood forecasting and warning system
were studied.
The Joint Committee on Water Resources between India and Nepal, which is a meeting between
the Water Resources Secretaries of the two countries, met in October 2000 and set up the bilateral
Committee on Flood Forecasting which was charged with the task of drawing up the
Comprehensive Flood Forecasting Master Plan (CFFMP) for India and Nepal. In total 23
meteorological and 19 hydro-metric stations have been set up in Nepal and 18 hydro-metric
stations in India to facilitate an efficient flood forecasting and warning system for the India-Nepal
border region. Around 5 more meteorological stations are to be set up in Nepal. The requisite
equipment for these sites has been supplied by GOI and data is being supplied by Nepal on real
time basis. In addition to the equipment, GOI has also provided training to Nepalese technicians on
various occasions. The Committee on Flood Forecasting meets regularly to discuss the activities.
™ Data sharing arrangement between Bhutan and India
Bhutan is collecting and transmitting rainfall and river-flows data from selected sites of the
tributaries of the Brahmaputra originating in Bhutan, like the Puthimari, Pagladiya, Manas, and
Sunkosh. At present, data are transmitted to Cooch Bihar and Jalpaiguri in West Bengal and
further data are transmitted to Barpeta/Nalbari and Guwahati in Assam using civil wireless from 14
hydromet stations in Bhutan.
™ Data sharing arrangement between Bangladesh and India
There is also a joint India-Bangladesh agreement under which India is transmitting actual and
forecast river-level data to Bangladesh from five stations: Farakka on the Ganges, Goalpara and
Dhubri on the Brahmaputra, Domohani on the Teesta, and Silchar on the Barak. In addition rainfall
data from Goalpara, Dhubri, Tura, Cooch-Behar, Siliguri, Jalpaiguri, and Agartala are also
transmitted from India to Bangladesh.
™ Data sharing arrangement between Pakistan and India
As part of the Indus Treaty, river flow data from Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej at Akhnoor, Madhopur,
Harike and Ferozepur respectively are shared between India and Pakistan during the flood season
through the courtesy of Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Water and its counterpart in India.
™ Data sharing arrangement between Bangladesh and Nepal
There is a data sharing arrangement between Nepal and Bangladesh since 1989. Data from two
stations; Devghat at Narayani and Chatara at Koshi is shared on a daily basis during the flood
season from June through October.
A.2.3 Features of the river basins
Geography
The GBM river system covers an area of 1.72 million sq. km stretching across five countries:
Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India and Nepal. While Bangladesh and India share all three rivers,
6
China shares with them only the Brahmaputra and the Ganges and Bhutan and Nepal share only
the Brahmaputra and Ganges respectively. The population of the region, which has been growing
at the rate of about two percent per year, was estimated at 558 million in 1999.
The river system of the GBM terminates as a delta bounded by the Padma-Meghna in the east and
the Hugli in the west, covering much of West Bengal and the floodplain area of Bangladesh where
some 210 million people live. Two of Asia’s major cities, Dhaka (population over 9 million) and
Calcutta (population about 12 million) lie within the delta. India’s shares in the population and the
area of the GBM region are 76 and 63 percent respectively, while the corresponding shares for
Bangladesh are 21 and 7 percent respectively. Nepal, with almost its entire territory within the
Ganges basin, shares 8 percent of the GBM area and 3 percent of the population. All rivers from
Bhutan flow into Brahmaputra and makes up 6.71 % of the basin area. Table 1 provides a full
breakdown of the drainage area, the arable area and the population in the GBM region as shared
by the five countries:
Table 1: Area and population as shared by the countries of the GBM
Country/Basin
Tibet
Nepal
India
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Parameters
(China)
GBM
Total
Ganges
Drainage area
1000 sq km
Arable-area M.ha
Population million
147
861
46
33
1,080
2.6
22
60.2
370
3.0
34
Negligible
1
65.8
427
Brahmaputra
Drainage area
1000 sq km
Arable-area M.ha
Population million
195
47
38.5
293
573.5
5.5
31
3.6
47
0.003
0.668
Negligible
2
9.3
82
Meghna
Drainage area
1000 sq km
Arable-area M.ha
Population million
49
36
85
1.5
7
2.5
42
4.0
49
Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna
Drainage area
1000 sq km
147
1,105
129
38.5
326
1,738.5
Arable-area M.ha
2.6
67.2
9.1
0.003
Negligible
79.1
Population million
22
408
123
0.668
3
558
Climate of the HKH Region
The HKH region is characterized by a variety of climatic conditions from tropical to alpine. At
macro-scale there is a dominance of monsoon rainfall pattern with maximum precipitation in the
7
summer. The Himalayas are a major barrier for the natural flow of the southwest monsoon (5000 m
a.s.l.). Hence, the monsoon takes an entirely different course and the dominance of monsoon is
not uniform throughout the region. The rainfall increases from the Indus basin in the west to the
east up to Brahmaputra and then decreases in the Meghna basin. Mean annual precipitation
ranges from 300 mm in the Ladhakh area in the west to 1400 mm in Kathmandu and 4000 mm in
Pasighat in the Brahmaputra basin. Similarly, the duration of the rainy season increases from the
west (two months) to the east (eight months). As a consequence, the duration of high flow season
increases from west to the east. At meso-scale, the rainfall is highly influenced by local orography.
Precipitation in general increases from lowland valleys to higher mountain slopes. The windward
slope gets more precipitation than the leeward. High intensities of rainfall are the characteristics of
microclimate and occur more frequently in lowland areas than in the higher altitude. Such high
intensity rainfall causes flash floods. However, such precipitation is highly localized.
The lower and upper tropospheric atmospheric circulation results in four distinct rainfall seasons
namely pre-monsoon (March-May), summer monsoon (June-Sept), post monsoon (October) and
winter (Nov-Feb). Pre and post monsoon rain is associated with thermal convection combined with
orographical uplift and seasonal shift of the large circulation to the south. Winter rain is influenced
by westerly disturbances and decreases from the west to the east. In general 60-90 percent of the
annual total precipitation occurs during summer monsoon in the central and eastern part of the
region. As a consequence, remarkable variations between high flow and low flow are observed
particularly in the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers.
The onset and withdrawal of monsoon is associated with the northward and southward movement
of the equatorial trough or monsoon trough. During the period of very active monsoon, the
Westerlies occasionally move south to the Tibetan plateau and easterly jet stream often shifts
northwards. During the monsoon period a large low-pressure cell exists over southwest Asia,
intensified by the location of the Himalayas and Hindu Kush mountains, which trap warm air within
the Indian Ocean basin. This low-pressure cell along with the Earth’s Coriolis force cause intense
winds to blow from the southwest. The south-westerly winds from the Indian Ocean are warm and
laden with moisture. As the air rises upon reaching the landmass, it cools off whereby its moisture
holding capacity is reduced which results in very heavy rainfall. In the higher altitude, both
accumulation and ablation of snow take place in the summer in the Ganges and Brahmaputra
basin resulting remarkable seasonal variation in the flow. Since winter precipitation caused by
Westerlies is generally higher than the monsoon rains in the Indus basin, such seasonal variation
in discharge is comparatively low. Moreover, the proportion of area covered with snow and ice is
comparatively higher in the Indus basin (3.24%) than in the Ganges (0.88%) and Brahmaputra
(1.09%).
Hydrology
The summer monsoon is the major supplier of water to the Himalayan mountain system. Over 80%
of the GBM region annual rainfall is concentrated in three to four monsoon months, with much of
the precipitation occurring in about 45 rainy days and more particularly in very heavy spells.
Although no precise quantification of the total volume has yet been possible, preliminary estimates
have been made of the annual runoff of the major rivers. The summary presented in Table 2
estimates the average annual runoff in excess of 1,400 billion cubic metres (BCM).
8
Table 2: Annual runoff of the major Himalayan rivers
River System
Average Annual Runoff (BCM)
Meghna
141.9
Yarlungtsangpo
130.5
Brahmaputra
606.8
Ganges
371.1
Indus
143.6
A major hydrological problem in the Himalayan region is that of erosion and sedimentation. The
Himalayan rivers are active and more dynamic in nature than in other parts of the world in view of
the steep slopes and the geologically young Himalayan mountain system. It is estimated that
between 0.5 and 1.8 billion tons of sediment are deposited annually in the Bay of Bengal. Not all
sediment travel to the Bay of Bengal or to the Arabian Sea, part of it is deposited in the reservoirs
and on the floodplains. This results in a gradual depletion of the storage capacity of reservoirs and
their economic performance and severely reduces the flow capacity and navigability of river
channels and further aggravates the flood problem.
The assessment, development and sound management of the water resources of the Himalayan
region call for a thorough understanding of its hydrology. The development of an extensive and
regionally accessible database of climate and hydrological parameters should be a major objective
of all the countries that share the water resources. However, although repeated alarms have been
sounded the continuing lack of adequate data remains a major problem. The relative inaccessibility
of the mountain areas and their extreme complexity are possible reasons why no systematic
regional observation networks have been established.
A major constraint in the improvement of flood forecasting on national levels is the generally
inadequate access to real time hydrometeorological data. At the regional level, the establishment
of flood advisory services is constrained by the lack of internationally shared real-time data and
information. Some exchange of data has occurred through bilateral agreements between NepalIndia, Nepal-Bangladesh and Bangladesh-India on a real-time basis.
A brief description of each of the major rivers in the GBM system is presented below:
The Indus Basin
The river system of the Indus valley consists of five main rivers. Most of the Indus Basin lies in
India and Pakistan and 13% of its total catchment is in Tibet and Afghanistan. A brief description of
the physiographic features of each of the rivers is provided below.
1. Indus River
River Indus is one of the longest rivers of the world. It originates near lake Mansarowar on the
north side of the Himalayas range in the mountain of Kailash Parbat in Tibet at an elevation of
5,500 m. The river length above Tarbela is about 1500 km and catchment area of 466,200 sq. km.
There are five right bank tributaries (Singhi, Shyok, Shiger, Gilgit, and Astore rivers) and three left
bank tributaries ( Tansher, Dras, and Siran rivers). Most of the catchment above Tarbela is
mountainous with some of the highest peaks in the world after Mount Everest. Most of the snow
melt contribution comes from the area between 3,000 to 5,200 m in elevation. The river enters the
9
plains a few km below Attock. It has very flat slope and wide bed with large formation of deltas in
the province of Sindh.
2. Jhelum River
Jhelum River originates in the Kashmir valley about 54 km east of Anant Nag. It flows in a north
westerly direction through Srinagar on to Wular Lake. For a short distance of 32 km from the lake
to Baramula it moves along a somewhat southerly track and then turns westwards up to
Muzaffarabad. The river then takes a sharp turn southwards and continues in that direction up to
Mangla. From Mangla to Jhelum city it moves southwards and then turns westwards up to
Khushab, beyond which it moves south up to its confluence with Chenab at Trimmu. Total length of
the river is 820 km with a catchment area of 63,455 sq. km. Emerging out of its mountainous
source it has a steep slope of 43 m/km up to Anant Nag, after which it enters into area sloping at
about 2 m/km up to Wular Lake. The catchment between Wular Lake and Baramula is flat with little
or no slope. This feature of the area is extremely significant in the context of flood forecasting.
River slope is about 7m/km up to Muzaffarabad, increasing to 11m/km up to Kohala and reducing
to 2 m/km to Mangla. The river enters into planes after Mangla with a slope less than 0.4 m/km on
the average until it joins Chenab at Trimrnu. River Jhelum has two major tributaries, the Neelum
and Kunhar rivers, between Muzaffarabad and Kohala. Further downstream, two more tributaries,
the Poonch and Kanshi rivers join it upstream Mangla. Between Mangla and Jhelum three smaller
tributaries namely Suketar nallah, Bahdar Kas and Jabbakas enter the river along the left bank
while another two nullahs, the Kahan and Bunha join near Jhelum city and Rasool Barrage
respectively along the right bank.
3. Chenab River
Chenab river is one of the largest river of Indus basin exceeded only by the river Indus. It has a
total length of 1,240 km and a catchment area of 67,600 sq. km. Upper most catchment of the river
is snow covered and forms the North Eastern part of Himachal Pradesh. The river originates at the
confluence of the Bhaga and Chandra which flow along the two sides of the Baralacha pass at an
elevation of 4,900 m and converge at Tandi in Jammu and Kashmir State. From Tandi to Akhnur
the river traverses the high mountains which are a part of Himachal and Pir Panjal ranges. The
river enters Pakistan a little above Marala. From the highly elevated source region down to the
plains below Akhnur the river under goes sharp variation in its slope. Above Tandi its slope is
about 25 m/km, which is reduced to about 5 m/km between Tandi - Akhnur reach, and then down
about to 0.4 m/km towards Trimmu. It has twelve tributaries out of which six (Chandra, Bhaga, Bhut
Nallah, Maru, Munawwar Tawi and Jammu Tawi) are across the border, while the remaining six
(Doara, Dowara, Halsi, Bhimber, Palku and Budhi) join the river between downstream of Marala
and Khanki from the right and left respectively. Another four tributaries enter the river above Salal
Dam.
4. Ravi River
River Ravi originates from the lesser Himalayas range in India. Total length of the river is about
890km. The upper catchment is bounded to the north by the Pir Panjal range and to the South by
Dauladhar range. It has a steep slope of about 3 m/km up to Madhopur which is reduced to above
1 m/km towards Jassar beyond which the river flows through flat plains with slopes averaging only
0.19 m/km (one foot/mile). River Ravi has a catchment of about 40,000 sq. km. It has five major
tributaries namely: the Ujh, Bein, Basantar, Deg and Hudiara Nallah. The river runs almost along
the Indo-Pakistan border from a point 25 km downstream of Madhopur over a distance of 95 km up
to a point 32 km upstream Shahdara. It joins Chenab River below Sidhnai Barrage.
5. Sutlej River
10
Sutlej River originates in the vicinity of Lake Mansarowar near the source of Indus, Ganges and
Brahmaputra rivers. It has a length of about 1,550 km and a total catchment area of 1,22,000 sq.
km. More than 70% of the river length, as well as the catchment area, lie above Ferozepur barrage
in India. Its uppermost catchment is hilly comprising mountain ranges as Kailas, Panjal and Siwalik.
The highest mountain range is the Himalayas range which is almost in the middle of the catchment
above Ferozepur. Sutlej River has eight major tributaries. All the tributaries, except Rohinallah join
the Sutlej River in India. Bias River is the largest tributary and is 450 km long with a total catchment
area of 15,800 sq. km all of which lies in the Indian states of Himachal Pradesh and Punjab. A
number of control structures in the form of barrages and dams exist across the border in India.
The Brahmaputra Basin
The Brahmaputra is a major international river covering a drainage area of 580,000 sq. km, 50.5%
of which lie in China, 33.6% in India, 8.1% in Bangladesh and 7.8% in Bhutan. The average annual
discharge is about 19,200 cumecs which is nearly twice that of the Ganges. It originates from Tibet
and the main stem of it is known as Tsangpo in Tibet, Siang or Dehang in the upstream area in
India, and Brahmaputra in the rest of India and Bangladesh. The approximate total length of the
river is 2,840 km and it empties into the Bay of Bengal through a joint channel with the Ganges
River. The first part flows parallel to the Himalayas from west to east for a length of about 1,130 km.
It then turns sharply towards south and enters the state of Arunachal Pradesh of India for about
480 km. Then it turns towards west and flows through Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya
states for another about 650 km and then enters Bangladesh. Within Bangladesh, the channel
varies considerably in width ranging from less than 2 km to more than 12 km. At the border, the
river curves to the south and continues on this course for a length of about 240 km to its
confluence with the Ganges. The basin represents a unique hydroclimatological and geobiophysical setting characterized by a dominant monsoon rainfall regime, a relatively fragile
geologic base, highly active seismicity and an immensely rich biodiversity. The hydrologic regime
of the Brahmaputra responds to the seasonal rhythm of the monsoon and freeze-thaw cycle of
Himalayan snow in the backdrop of a unique geo-environmental framework.
The Ganges Basin
The Ganges Basin covers an area of 1,080,000 sq. km. The Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers
combined have formed one of the largest deltas in the world, comprising approximately 105,640 sq.
km. The Bengal Basin, into which this delta has protruded, is bordered on the west and northwest
by lower Jurassic volcanoes and on the east by Eocene sandstones and limestones. The southern
boundary is the Bay of Bengal. The Ganges River originates near the Tibet/India border, and then
flows southeast across India to combine with the Brahmaputra in the country of Bangladesh. The
river has its source in the Himalayas, at Gurumukhi in the southern Himalayas on the Indian side of
the Tibetan border. It is 2,510 km long and flows through China, India, Nepal and Bangladesh.
The Ganges river basin is one of the most fertile and densely populated in the world and covers an
area of 1,000,000 sq km. The river flows through 29 cities with population over 100,000, 23 cities
with population between 50,000 and 100,000, and about 48 towns.
The main Ganges River is the flow combination of the two rivers, namely, the Alakananda and the
Bhagirathi, which meet at Deva Prayag in Garwal district of Uttaranchal State (earlier Northern
Uttar Pradesh) of India within the mountain range of the Himalayas. During its middle course on
easterly direction, a number of big and small tributaries have joined on the northern side (left bank)
from the Himalayan sub-basin, namely, Rama-ganga, Gomati, Ghagra, Gandak and Kosi, all of
11
which have their origins within the mountain range of the Himalayas in Nepal. Therefore, the
contribution of flow of these tributaries is from Nepal within the Himalayan range and also from the
Indian soil on the Southern side of the Himalayan foothills. There is another tributary, Mahayana
which joins the river in Bangladesh. On the Southern side (Right bank), the tributaries are Yamuna,
which has joined the Ganges at Allahabad, and other major & minor tributaries are, Kehtons, Sone,
Kiul and Punpun, which have origins from peninsular sub-basin. The average annual run-off of the
Ganges below Allahabad is about 150,000 million cubic metre with the ratio of contribution
between the Ganges and the Yamuna as 2: 3.
The river enters Bangladesh after about 50 km below Farakka and its tributaries the Mahananda,
Punarbhaba, Atrai (Boral) and Karatoya joins it. The river fully runs into Bangladesh after about
another 110 km or so with Rajsahi district on left side and Kustia district on its right. The river joins
the Brahmaputra after another 110 km.
In Bangladesh, the basin area amounts to 46,141 sq. km comprising of full and partial area of 161
Thanas (Local sub-district administrative units). Most of this area is located in the southwest region
of the country. On the north of the area is the Ganges-Padma River, to the west is India and to the
east is lower Meghna. To the south of the basin is the Bay of Bengal.
The Meghna Basin
The Surma-Meghna river system flows on the east of the Brahmaputra River through Bangladesh.
Out of the two main branches, the Surma River rises as the Barak, on the Southern slopes of the
Nagaland-Manipur watershed in India. The Barak divides into two branches within the Cachar
district of Assam in India. The Northern branch is called Surma, which flows through eastern side
of Bangladesh by the side of Sylhet town and flows southwards. The southern branch of the Barak
is called the Kushiara, which flows through India and then enters Bangladesh. At first the Northern
branch joins the Meghna near Kuliarchar and then the southern branch also joins the Meghna river
near Ajmiriganj. The lower Meghna is one of the largest rivers in the world, as it is the mouth of the
three great rivers- the Ganges-Padma, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. The total length of the
river may be about 930 km. The river is predominantly a meandering channel, but in several
reaches, especially where small tributaries contribute sediment, braiding is evident with sand
islands, bifurcating the river into two or more channels. The average annual discharge is of the
order of 3,510 cumecs, about one-third that of the Ganges.
A.2.4 Socio-economic and water resource indicators
It is estimated that about 10 percent of the world’s population live in the GBM region which
represents only 1.2 percent of the world’s land mass. The region is also characterized by endemic
poverty and is the home of about 40 percent of the developing world's poor (with a daily calorie
intake of less than 2,200-2,400 Kcal). Even though there has been a decline in the poverty ratio in
recent years, the absolute number of poor people has increased due to population growth. The
performance of the region with respect to such social indicators as economic growth, education
and health has been disappointing in comparison to other regions of the world. A summary of
socio-economic indicators for Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and
Pakistan is provided in Table 3 below.
12
Table 3: Socio-economic indicators of the region
Indicator
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Bhutan
China
India Myanmar
Nepal
Pakistan
Population (millions) 2007
27.0
158
0.66
1328
1169 48
28
163
Annual growth rate (%) 2007
4.1
1.7
1.5
0.6
1.5
0.9
2.0
1.8
Infant mortality rate (live birth/1000) 2006
165
52
63
19
57
10
46
78
Under – 5 mortality rate (live birth/1000) 2006
257
69
70
23
76
12
59
97
Maternal mortality rate (live birth/100,000)
14 (03)
20 (06)
56 (03)
98
(05)
47
(06)
98 (05)
19
(06)
31 (05)
Access to safe water (% population) 2006
22
80
81
89
89
80
89
90
Access to sanitation (% population) 2006
30
36
52
68
28
82
27
58
Adult literacy rate (% of people 15+) 2007
n/a
53.5
55.6
93.3
66
91.9
56.5
54.9
Female (as % of labour force) 2006
38.6
57.8
49.4
84.1
(07)
38.9 82.3
64.1
36.1
n/a
129
n/a
910
329
268
337
407
Per capita electricity consumption (Kwh) 2005
6
58
69
215
91
30
27
194
Population below national poverty line (%) below
US$ 1.25/day 2005
n/a
49.6
26.2
(03)
15.9
(05)
41.6 n/a
55.1
(03)
22.6
(04)
Per capita GDP (US$) 2007
302
455
1356
1602
792
287
749
Per capita energy
equivalent) 2006
consumption
(kg
of
oil
457
Source: UN ESCAP, 2008 Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific,
http://www.unescap.org/stat/data/syb2008/index.asp
A.3
HKH-HYCOS initiative
A.3.1 The WHYCOS programme
The mandate of the WMO, makes provision for assistance to its Member States including in the
establishment and operation of water information systems they require for water resources
management, including the management of water-related hazards and disasters. This is done
through its Hydrology and Water Resources Programme, and increasingly, and more specifically,
through the regional components of the World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS),
implemented in co-operation with other development assistance agencies.
WHYCOS was established by WMO in 1995 with the following objectives:
13
•
•
•
To promote and facilitate the exchange and use of water-resources data and information,
using modern information technologies, including the internet.
To strengthen the technical and institutional capacities of the National Hydrological Services
and National Meteorological Services (NHSs and NMSs) to collect and process hydrological
data, to meet the needs of their end-users for information on the status and trend of their
water resources;
To support the NHS and NMS in enhancing the development and operation of adequate
hydrological observation networks, so that they would provide information of a consistent
quality, transmitted in real-time or near-real-time as required to national databases and
regional information systems.
WHYCOS has been planned and is being developed through a series of regional HYCOS projects.
The success of HYCOS projects such as the MED-HYCOS and SADC-HYCOS implemented in the
Mediterranean and Southern African regions respectively has been an encouragement for national
governments and international donors to support other HYCOS projects worldwide. In particular, the
value of the SADC-HYCOS was widely recognized during the disastrous floods in Mozambique in
2001 when it provided hydrological information that were vital in the flood management efforts. For
the Mekong River Basin a separate HYCOS project has been developed jointly by WMO and the
Mekong River Commission (MRC) for the establishment of a regional flood information system and,
being fully funded, is currently in the execution phase1.
Figure 2 shows the general scheme of a HYCOS data collection and dissemination network. Figure 3
shows the status of Development of the WHYCOS Programme.
A.3.2 The HKH-HYCOS project
The HKH-HYCOS project is proposed to be developed as a regional component of the global
WHYCOS programme. While the initial focus of the project is capacity building for flood forecasting
through the establishment of a regional flood information system, it will have a number of common
features with other regional components, for example, the methodologies to obtain real-time
hydrological observations. The core of the project will be a regional flood information system that will
be accessible to all participating countries and relevant regional entities. River level/flow, rainfall and
related information will be observed at specific sites and transmitted in real-time using agreed and
reliable means of telecommunication to the NHSs and NMSs to be used for flood forecasting
purposes. The observations then will be transmitted simultaneously to a dedicated Regional Centre
and National Hydrological and Meteorological Services.
The regional database is intended to provide a continuously updated picture of the regional flood
situation and serve the scientific community, that is seeking to reduce uncertainty regarding trends
and variability in climate and water resources and in particular, the impact of climate change on water
resources. The beneficiaries of such studies are the countries of the region whose decision-makers
are provided with useful assessments and advice. The regional databases are also of value in
improving the knowledge of global climate issues that require hydrological and meteorological
information. Addressing regional water and climate-related issues calls for regional commitment and
,0
1
WMO/MRC, 2006: Establishment of a Hydrological Information System in the Mekong River Basin - The Mekong
Hydrological Cycle Observing System (Mekong-HYCOS), Project Document, April 2006.
14
cooperattion and is th
he basis on which
w
HKH-HYCOS will be built. The database would also serve
s
to
enhance climate sca
ale prediction
n efforts and benefit both
h the agricultural and wa
ater manage
ement
sectors.
Figure 2: General sch
heme of data
a collection and
a dissemin
nation netwo
ork
Figure 3: Status of De
evelopment of
o the WHYC
COS program
mme
A.3.3 Other
O
Regional initiatives
The HKH
H region has a history wh
here relative
ely few regional initiative
es for cooperration and
managem
ment of wate
er resourcess and hazard
ds such as re
egional flood
ds and flash floods have
e been
realized. In the past, most transb
boundary collaboration on
o water management has
h been of bilateral
b
15
nature. However, in the light of climate change impact on the water resources in the region, and with
several major river basins being shared by three or more countries, the requirement for regional
cooperation is gradually growing stronger. This can be seen within the South Asian Association for
Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which recently has formed a Disaster Management Centre (DMC),
hosted by the National Institute for Disaster Management (NIDM) within the Ministry of Home Affairs
in India. The centre will contribute to increase the regional approach in disaster risk reduction, and
ICIMOD will have a close dialogue with DMC throughout the implementation of the project.
Other signs of increased interest for regional cooperation on water resources in the HKH region is for
instance the so called “Abu Dhabi Dialogue”. An informal high level dialogue on water resources
management in the region, facilitated by the World Bank. Since 2007, ICIMOD have supported the
Abu Dhabi Dialogue Group (ADDG) as a knowledge provider, and in 2008 ICIMOD organized the first
Abu Dhabi Knowledge Forum on behalf of the ADDG where around 50 key knowledge institutions in
the region were brought together to discuss opportunities for regional collaboration on water
resources. The World Bank is currently making financial resources available under the heading South
Asia Water Initiative (SAWI) to support short term regional projects on water resources management
of the kind that were proposed during the 2008 Knowledge Forum.
ICIMOD is in continuous dialogue with both NIDM and the World Bank in matters related to regional
water resources management and disaster risk reduction. In addition, ICIMOD as one of the few
regional intergovernmental organisations in the region, is implementing a series of regional projects
targeting flash flood management, Integrated Water Resources Management, water availability
scenario development etc. The HKH-HYCOS project would be part of this family and form a crucial
component within ICIMODs Integrated Water and Hazard Management programme.
ICIMOD is also currently coordinating a project on Satellite Rainfall Estimation, with the purpose to
explore the technical and institutional opportunities to utilize satellite based technology for estimation
of precipitation. With this technique developed and fine tuned it will become an important
complementary tool in the region, which is suffering from a very scarce network of hydrometeorological stations. This current project is an off-spring of the first phase of the regional flood
information system, and has ensured a continuity among the national institutes to continue the
dialogue for regional cooperation until present.
Apart from ensuring complimentarity with other regional initiatives, it is also important to link the
proposed regional communication initative with national level early warning systems. While the
proposed project intends to improve and secure data and information of precipitation and discharge
across national boundaries in the region, it is the responsibility of each country to ensure that this
information is incorporated into the national level early warning systems for floods. To this end, the
project will make considerable efforts to facilitate a seamless interface between the regional and the
national dimensions. For this purpose ICIMOD can look back on close collaborations, stretching over
a decade or more, with several of the key national institutes such as the Pakistan flood forecasting
division and the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology in Nepal. In collaboration with the latter,
the upcoming “Finnish-Nepalese project” for increased capacity of hydrometeorological services in
Nepal to promote the national and regional early warning system for natural hazards, and provision of
data services to support the national policy to achieve the Millennium Development Goals” is a timely
initiative, which will greatly contribute to the seamless interaction between the Nepal national, and the
regional levels. It is expected that the Finninsh-Nepal cooperation project with the DHM will provide
valuable tools and products that could directly be used to improve flood forecasting at national levels
as well as being valuable for the generation of regional flood outlooks in the context of the proposed
project.
16
B.
PROJECT JUSTIFICATION
B.1
Problem analysis
The root problem to be addressed in the Project is the loss of lives and livelihoods due to floods that
is caused by the non-existence of adequate agreement and procedures for sharing of good quality
hydrometeorological data that could make timely early warnings possible.
Asia is the most disaster prone part of the world. About 80 % of all disasters strike here and floods
account for around 50 % of these. In the HKH region, floods are a recurrent natural disaster and a
regular event in the GBM and Indus basins. The number of flood disasters occurring annually is also
gradually increasing. These floods often result in significant loss of life, costly damage to property and
infrastructure, and severe psychological and emotional disturbance. It is the poor, forced by sheer
necessity to occupy vulnerable flood prone areas, who constitute the bulk of the victims. Flooding is
the principal natural factor of the growing poverty cycle. Floods pose severe constraints for socioeconomic development, investment in agriculture, physical infrastructure and industrial production
where they are most needed. It has been shown around the world that reducing the damage caused
by annual floods increases social and economic prosperity of a region. Thus, flood mitigation in the
GBM and Indus Basins is more than a regional hydrological priority; it is a socio-economic necessity.
The average annual costs of floods in Asia, which accounts for 70% of all floods, have been
estimated at US$ 15 billion. This is of course an astronomical figure, and regardless how one counts,
there are all reasons to invest more in flood risk reduction and management. In the HKH region,
where many countries have low Gross Development Product (GDP) each major flood disaster
translates into a severe set back in the national economy, sometimes in the range of 10% of the GDP.
The cost benefit ratio referred to by WMO is that each dollar spent on disaster risk reduction (where
flood is the main disaster), can prevent economic losses worth seven dollars – a considerable return
in investment.
In the GBM region, Bangladesh bears the brunt of flooding with four-fifths of the country being prone
to inundation. In 1994, approximately 52% of the population of Bangladesh lived in flood prone
regions. Bangladesh is heavily dependent on information from the upstream countries regarding
information on precipitation and discharge.
In the GBM plains of India floods have become a debilitating annual feature. It has been estimated
that about 55 % of the total flood damage takes place in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins. Of the
total estimated flood prone area in India, about 68 % lies in GBM States, mainly in Assam, West
Bengal, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh.
Collectively, the four largest floods within 1987-2000 saw over 6000 lives lost, more than 57 million
people displaced and an estimated US $7 billion of damage caused. The flood of 1998 resulted in
over 2600 flood-related deaths; 25 million displacements and an estimated US $3.4 billion of damage
in India and Bangladesh. The impact of these floods will only rise as the population in the floodplains
grows and the value of infrastructure increases.
It is not fully understood exactly how climate change will impact on riverine floods in the HKH.
However, there are few, if any, signs that climate change will contribute to a relief of the flood risk, but
rather the contrary. The question is to which extent the risk is going to increase? It is generally
predicted that the increased temperature will result in more energy in the atmosphere, leading to
17
more intense and prolonged rainfall during the monsoon, while the dry season is predicted to become
drier. This in combination with increased melting of snow and ice during the summer may result in
more severe and prolonged flooding events. Possible increased sediment load in the rivers caused
by an increased intensity and frequency of flash floods due to increased amount of high intense
rainfall events, and sea level rise are other factors influencing negatively on riverine floods. Thus, the
problem of regional floods is interlinked with global warming and resulting changes in climate and its
variability.
18
Table 4 shows the major flood events that occurred recently in each of the countries in the HKH
region.
Table 4: Inventory of selected recent flood events in of the countries in the HKH region
Country Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan China India Myanmar Pakistan Year 2009 2007 2006 2007 2004 2003 1998 2009 2000 1994 2008 2007 2003 2002 2008 2008 2007 2005 2002 1998 2007 2006 2002 1999 2008 2007 2005 2003 Month April June Nov July June/July June‐ Sept July/Aug May Aug Oct June June June June Aug/Sept June/Jul July July July July June Nov/Dec Aug Aug Aug June/Jul Feb Jul/Aug Killed 20 113 166 1110 730 187 1050 4 200 22 176 535 430 793 47 173 1103 1200 549 1811 5 25 21 22 36 130 520 230 Affected 54,594 4000 17,580 13,771,380 36,000,000 50,000 15,000,050 >5,000 1000 600 1,600,000 105,004,000 150,146,000 80,035,257 2,600,000 2,400,000 1,870,000 20,000,055 42,000,000 29,227,200 3000 10,000 50,000 50,000 200,012 2000 7,000,450 1,266,233 Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
http://www.emdat.be/Database/terms.html
Because of frequent flood events people have adapted to live with floods and are inclined to stay with
their homes and protect their belongings even when warned of impending high water. In especially
flood-prone areas in the region flood warning is presently less than 24 hours and therefore,
inadequate lead-time time to secure belongings, move livestock, flood-proof dwelling and relocate as
needed. With an advance early warning, a significant reduction in losses can be expected by taking
preparedness, preventive and protective measures. Timely warning provides time for the disaster
management services to best deploy their resources.
19
The value of flood forecasting increases as the lead-time increases. Flood forecasting is thus highly
dependent on information communication and infrastructure capacity. Communication channels must
disseminate information from national institutes to those responsible for disaster management and
then directly to the people affected. Within Bangladesh today, flood warnings are rapidly
disseminated through the Internet, email, fax, telephone, wireless, radio and television.
Presently, flood forecasting is carried out by national agencies in many countries of the HKH region.
In Bangladesh, China, India and Pakistan the capacity and technology for flood forecasting within
national institutions are well advanced. Forecasting models used by these countries are integrated
with GIS systems to enable greater modelling ability and visualization of flood forecasts. A major
constraint in the improvement of flood forecasting on national levels is the generally inadequate
access to real-time hydrometeorological data. At the regional level, the establishment of flood
advisory services is constrained by the lack of internationally shared real-time data and information.
Some exchanges of data have occurred through bilateral agreements between Nepal-India, NepalBangladesh and Bangladesh-India. Such efforts have also included some sharing of real-time
hydrological data.
The exchange of data is not only limited by the inadequate access to real-time data and the regional
coverage but also by the inadequate number of observation stations in the headwater regions. The
mountain regions of the HKH have a density of hydrometeorological stations far below that
recommended by WMO. Apart from the need for improved observation networks, there is also the
need for technical co-operation and assistance for the development of data transmission, analysis
and archiving systems, as well as data dissemination protocols and communication with
organizations responsible for disaster preparedness and mitigation.
Sharing hydrometeorological information between countries will not only increase confidence at the
international and institutional levels but will also promote the awareness of mutual and regional
benefits of shared data and information.
The development of an integrated regional flood information system is therefore a critical component
within the context of poverty alleviation of the population living in flood-prone areas that aims to:
-- Assess risk.
-- Build capacity to respond appropriately.
-- Minimize loss of lives.
-- Minimize damage to infrastructure.
-- Minimize agricultural/industrial production losses.
There is new recognition of the need for collaboration in flood data acquisition. All countries within the
basin have recognized that flood management is needed on humanitarian grounds and there has
been a growing interest in sharing regional flood data. This data sharing will be voluntary and
dependant on the individual policies of the countries of the region.
B.2
Strategic considerations
The recurrent floods in the HKH affect the lives of almost the entire population of the region and often
have a devastating impact on the inhabitants. The transboundary nature of the rivers calls for a
broader river basin approach to flood forecasting, warning and flood management. The institutional
framework of HKH-HYCOS creates the favourable environment and working conditions for sharing
the required hydrological data and information and joint consultations at the technical, professional
and institutional levels. This consultative process and information sharing will contribute towards
building confidence and mutual trust among neighbouring countries. By assisting in helping with the
20
exchange of real time data it will promote awareness and understanding of water resources issues
regionally and needs within each country. This will have positive effects on promoting regional
cooperation and on broader economic developments by improving river basin management.
Important strategic considerations are:
•
•
•
•
•
Hydrometeorological data and information are key elements for the inter-country cooperation
on water resources management.
The issues related to floods (forecasting, warning, mitigation) have to be addressed at the
regional scale with the active involvement of all the countries sharing river basins.
Effective flood forecasting and warning must be based on the availability of real-time
hydrological and meteorological data.
The project provides ready access to the WMO Information System (WIS) for real-time
transmission of hydrological data.
The project builds and enhances the capacity of the National Hydrological and Meteorological
Services for flood forecasting and management in the region.
From the above, it can be concluded that the long-term results of the financial and technical
assistance would be both positive and substantial. The project will provide a cornerstone for regional
cooperation and for the development and implementation of a comprehensive approach for flood
forecasting and management. Both are key elements in poverty reduction, food security, economic
development, social equality and environmental sustainability.
Commitment to the project can be successfully used to lever further technical and funding support for
broader water management programmes through strategic investments, partnerships and
coordination with other developmental organizations in the region.
The visibility of the HKH-HYCOS project is high due to its regional nature and direct link to ICIMOD
and WMO and other related international organizations. The project provides a positive
communication opportunity with the international community as well as with the stakeholders and
NGOs in the region.
B.3
Beneficiaries and benefits to be derived
The main beneficiaries of the Project are the people living in the flood prone areas in the region,
whose lives and livelihoods are at risk due to extensive flooding. Being among the poorest of the poor
they are extremely vulnerable to floods, and timely exchange of data and information on floods will
make it possible to reduce the threats to their lives and livelihoods. The project will thus have a direct
and substantial poverty reduction effect particular to those living in flood prone areas..
While that is the overall and long-term benefit resulting from the project, its main immediate benefits
are the free and unrestricted access to and exchange of flood flow data from a network of designated
observation stations in the GBM and Indus river basins. Other benefits of the project include capacity
building, institutional strengthening and improved institutional linkages within and between NHSs and
NMSs. Their ability to operate and manage the modern systems for data collection and management,
data exchange and information dissemination in both national and regional contexts will be
strengthened. Additionally, public awareness of flood management and flood preparedness will be
enhanced. In addition, the benefits of participating in WMO’s WHYCOS programme will be an
21
opportunity to cooperate more effectively with other members of the international community, thus
ensuring access to, and benefit from, state of the art forecasting, early-warning methods, operation of
trans-boundary, integrated hydrological information systems and aspects of flood management.
Decision-makers in flood forecasting centres and National Hydrological and Meteorological Services
and organizations that are responsible for flood forecasting, flood disaster prevention and
management in each of the participating countries are direct beneficiaries of the project This will lead
to improving their capacity to forecast floods, issue flood warnings and provide flood advisory
services that are critical for flood disaster prevention and management at all levels, including the
community level.
Lower riparian countries will derive additional benefits from environmental conservation activities of
the upper riparian countries. In the case of Bhutan, effective land and forest management policies
has significantly reduced the risk from floods to downstream countries. The project will provide a
forum to assess the contribution of upper riparian countries in reducing flood magnitudes through
careful forest management practices, for example. This assessment would lead to identification of
activities for protection of watersheds in upper riparian countries.
It should be noted that the population affected by floods in the downstream region is greater than the
population that resides within the flood-prone areas of the Himalayan region. Floods due to the
intertwined social-economic conditions affect most of the nearly 600 million people living in the GBM
and Indus basins. The target population can, in general, be characterized as having limited resilience
to recurring flood events.
There are millions of poor people who own agricultural land, livestock and other property in the flood
plains of the GBM and Indus basins. The population density in the region is one of the highest in the
world (600 people per km2) and dependency on agriculture is high (over 80%). Annual floods in these
basins wash away assets and cause significant loss of crop, livestock, land and ultimately income for
the people dependent on these resources. Depending on their severity, annual floods in the region
also result in significant loss of human lives. Large tracts of forest areas which are important to the
livelihoods of the poor people also get water logged or washed away, further accentuating the
economic vulnerability of the poorest of the poor.
Women are disproportionately vulnerable to flood disasters mainly because of their roles the social
constraints. Their role put women more at risk because of the spaces where their activities are
performed and the sectors where they are confined - such as agriculture – which are more at risk to
floods. Their household responsibilities and the care giving tasks put an additional stress when flood
occur. Although they are the main responsible for children safety and elders care, socio cultural
norms prevent them to take decisions and actions that can save lives and the household belongings
(such as moving to a safer place without the authorization of male members of the household). Their
limited access to financial resources, information, mobility, and connection to public institutions hinder
their capacity to be properly prepared to face floods, to cope with the disasters, and to recover from
the losses. High level of illiteracy among South Asian women and cultural constraints prevent them to
access essential information and very often reduce considerably the efficiency of early warning
systems put in place by governments. Facilities supposed to help the population to cope with floods
are rarely properly addressing women’s needs – particularly in term of sanitation – and supporting
their household responsibilities.
Given the large migration of men from the uplands of the Himalayan regions in search of economic
opportunities, many women are forced to manage the household and farms. As the forest area
shrinks and water becomes scarcer, women have to go farther and farther in search of firewood and
22
water. Addressing household water and energy needs, women generally do not find time for off-farm
income generating activities and thus are forced to take loans at exorbitant interest rates from local
moneylenders. The indebtedness is more intense among the poor and women from flood-affected
families. Despite this reality, there is still insufficient attention given to the differentiated impacts of
floods disasters on women and men. Moreover, women are generally perceived as vulnerable
groups and not key players to mitigate the impacts of flood disasters, in early warning systems and in
recovery programs. They are rarely consulted when designing early warning systems and disaster
preparedness plan and very few participate in decision making at all levels.
Establishment of a regional flood information system will help reduce the vulnerability of the people
that are affected by the floods.
B.4
Expected end-of-project situation
Based on the WHYCOS concept, the project will establish a framework for regional co-operation, that
will ensure efficient collection and real-time transmission of hydrological data for flood forecasting and
warning and the sharing of information for effective flood management within the GBM and Indus
river basins. The project is planned to be implemented in three phases as described in Section C
below with specific goals defined for each phase. The end-of-project situation is expected to be:
• A Regional Flood Information System, supported by all the countries of the GBM and Indus
river basins, established to deliver flood advisory services region-wide and serve as a platform
to share near real time flood-related data and information with a view to reducing flood
vulnerability.
• A Regional Flood Information System integrated into the emerging concept of transboundary
river basin management.
• Near real-time meteorological and hydrological information available to provide seamless
flood forecasting at the national level and flood advisory services at the regional level.
• Integration, sharing and exchange of hydro-meteorological data, information and other
resources between the PMU and national hydrometeorological services in the HKH region.
It is of course worth mentioning that once a functional regional communication system for
hydrometeorological data has been established, the scope can relatively easily be enlarged to
encompass for instance also water quality data. The usefulness of having such a system in place was
demonstrated in the year 2000 disaster in the Tisa river in eastern Europe where mining tailing
contaminants accidentally were released in the transboundary Danube basin. A potential upscaling of
the regional early warning system to cover also water quality would in that case have to be discussed
at the later stage of the currently planned project.
C.
PROJECT DESCRIPTION
C.1
Overall Objectives, Project Purpose and Results
Strengthening regional cooperation for timely exchange of flood information requires a well
coordinated process that needs to be fully participatory and progress on the basis of consensus
building between the participating countries and institutions. The process to achieve full operational
status relies on the political will and to enhance the technical capacity. The project has been planned
to be implemented in three inter-linked phases as follows:
Phase I - Feasibility study and infrastructure testing (completed).
23
Phase II - Detailed planning and region-wide project implementation (duration: 36 months).
Phase III – Implementation of an up-scaled region-wide, fully integrated flood information system
(duration: 36 months).
Phase I of the project was the subject of a separate project document prepared by ICIMOD and WMO
in August 2002, and this phase was successfully completed in December 2005 with USAID funding.
The current document focuses on the development and implementation of Phase II hereon
referred to as the Project.
A brief outline of the Project is also provided below, but that will have to be further elaborated as
progress and achievements during the implementation of the Project are assessed.
Overall objective:
The overall objective of the project is to minimise the loss of lives and property by reducing flood
vulnerability in the HKH region with specific reference to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and Indus
river basins.
Project purpose:
The Project purpose is timely exchange of flood data and information within and among participating
countries through an established and agreed platform which is accessible and user friendly.
Project Results:
Following are the results of the proposed project
•
•
•
•
•
C.2
Strengthened framework for cooperation on sharing regional flood data and information
among participating member countries
Establishment of a flood observation network in selected basins in the participating countries
Establishment of regional and national flood information systems to share real time data and
information and increase lead time
Enhanced technical capacity of partners on flood forecasting and communication to the end
users
Up-scaled fully integrated regional project planned and agreed among participating countries
Project components
The expected results are planned to be delivered in five distinct components:
1. Framework for cooperation.
2. Regional flood observation network.
3. Regional flood information system.
4. Training and public awareness.
5. Planning of a full-scale regional project
A description of each component is provided below. Details of the activities under each component,
the corresponding indicators and means of their verification, and assumptions are included in the
Logical Framework provided in Annex 1.
24
Component 1:
Framework for co-operation
The wide variation in the capacity of countries in the region with regard to flood forecasting and
management offers an opportunity for bilateral and regional technical cooperation. In addition to
existing bilateral agreements between countries, the concept of regional cooperation as already
implemented in many other regions of the world offers a much wider scope for the exchange of
knowledge, technology, data and information, especially with regard to the integrated development of
shared river basins. In this respect, the Regional Flood Information System proposed provides the
platform for the design and development of the technical solutions and operational systems that will
provide data and information indispensable for flood management, disaster preparedness and
mitigation, and the protection of lives and property in selected river basins. The need for an
institutionalized exchange of real-time hydrological and meteorological data and information primarily
for flood forecasting purposes is therefore a prerequisite for the development of strategies to mitigate
the negative effects of floods. Better quality data and state-of-the-art data transmission and
dissemination technologies are needed to share information and data on a real-time basis.
Based on the findings of the first consultative meeting (Kathmandu, May 2001) and the recognition of
the benefits of regional cooperation to address the problems cited above, strategic and specific
objectives for the development and implementation of an HKH-HYCOS project were identified as
listed below. The identification of objectives was based on the principle that the reduction of loss of
lives, property, and infrastructure has the highest priority in an integrated approach for flood
management, which recognises both the beneficial and negative effects of floods.
The proposed regional flood information system aims to provide the operational concepts and tools
for improving integrated river basin management, specifically by managing floods and thus
contributing to minimization of the loss of lives and property, reduction of poverty, and the
acceleration of economic development in shared river basins affected by recurring flood events.
The development and operation of a regional flood information system require the firm commitment of
the participating countries to a framework for regional cooperation. The basic elements of such a
framework are summarised below:
(i)
There is need for an improvement of flood forecasting systems, the extension and upgrading
of hydro-meteorological networks with real-time capacity, improvement of data quality, and
effective data collection and dissemination systems
.
(ii)
Capacity building in terms of institutional capacity and professional expertise has been
recognized as essential for the development and implementation of an operational multilateral
flood information system.
(iii) Improved consultation and cooperation are recognized as essential for the exchange of data
and information in establishing a Regional Flood Information System. Such cooperation is
firstly essential at the national level in view of the multitude of organisations and government
agencies concerned in all the participating countries.
(iv) Effective organisational concepts and mechanisms for the dissemination and use of flood
forecasting products need to be developed to ensure the use of flood forecasting services at
all levels. This includes the dissemination of information to flood-prone areas so as to ensure
effective disaster preparedness.
25
(v)
An assessment of existing flood information systems and the additional information and
concepts needed for the improvement of data collection, data-sharing, data transmission, and
data screening is a prerequisite for the development of the Regional Flood Information System.
(vi) In this regard, national procedures for data collection, processing, quality control, archiving,
access to data, modelling, flood forecasting, and dissemination of flood warnings and
forecasts need to be improved in a joint effort of regional cooperation.
(vii) Agreements with the NHS and NMS of each participating country should be established
stating the technical and financial arrangements for data collection for the project. Each
agreement shall include a list of stations to be monitored by each respective NHS and NMS
within the framework of HKH-HYCOS.
(viii) Considering the need to secure donor support for the development of an HKH-HYCOS, the
development and implementation of HKH-HYCOS will proceed in the form of river basin subcomponents that could be launched in parallel, depending on the commitment of the
stakeholders and the availability of funds. The various components will nevertheless form part
of the information network and maintain the objective of a Regional Flood Information System.
(ix) The system will enhance technical cooperation between countries in the region using state-ofthe-art observation, forecasting, and communication technologies.
(x)
The system will contribute to the mitigation of flood-related disasters.
(xi) The system will provide a common platform to assess knowledge, data, and information
through contributions of all participating partners.
(xii) This framework will be implemented on the basis of national contributions of flood-related data
and information to a dedicated regional centre where the authority to issue national flood
forecasting services remains with the responsible national agencies for their national territory.
The data providers remain the data owners. The regional centre will operate as a data and
information warehouse to ensure access to flood-related real-time data and information
generated for the project to all participating agencies and the distribution of verified and
quality-controlled data and information to other partners on the basis of procedures agreed by
the participating agencies. In addition, the regional centre will provide regional flood advisory
services and other flood-related products of regional value. This framework is dedicated to
add additional value to existing bilateral efforts and agreements in a regional dimension.
Component 2:
Regional flood observation network
This component will provide for the upgrading of selected meteorological and hydrological stations in
the participating countries. In addition to the stations selected during the national consultations held
between August 2003 and April 2004, additional stations will be selected following the selection
criteria agreed earlier as part of scaling up of the project, as discussed during the High Level meeting
in Bhutan in May 2005. A final list of sites will be agreed upon between the PMU and the line agency
of each partner country. The final specifications for each type of station will be elaborated in a
‘Requirement Analysis’ document. In agreement with the results of the national consultations and the
26
technical meeting, Data Collection Platforms (DCPs) and telemetry systems will be carefully selected
to reflect the experience of the participating countries as well as the state-of-the-art in hydrological
and meteorological real-time observations and data transmission facilities. The stations will be
located so as to be incorporated into and be an effective part of the overall regional observing
network for flood forecasting to be completed in the upscaling of the project. For ease of installation,
maintenance, operation and training, equipment, transmission protocols and database management
will be standardized as much as possible. All stations will be equipped for water level recording and
subsequent river discharge determination. Some of the DCPs may be fitted with additional sensors to
monitor rainfall and other meteorological parameters. The establishment of the stations as well as
training of national staff in the maintenance and operation of DCPs will be carried out by the
equipment supplier as part of the procurement contract.
The names and locations of the stations selected during national consultations are provided in a
separate document.
Component 3:
Regional flood information system
The regional flood information system will consist of an effective data and information
transmission/reception capability, adequate national and regional databases and data management
systems and the required technical and professional skills. The functioning of the system will provide
for data observations from the prescribed network to be transmitted to the national centres and to the
PMU. Where appropriate, WMO will facilitate data transmission through the Global
Telecommunication System of WMO’s World Weather Watch Programme at fixed and appropriate
time intervals to be agreed with the operators of different telecommunication systems. The final
configuration of the telemetry and telecommunication system is based on the results of the national
consultations and on the decision of the Workshop on the Telecommunication Strategy that was held
in Nepal in 2005. These decisions are documented in a separate document. In the light of the wide
range of telecommunication platforms currently used in participating countries the agreed strategy
proposes a phased approach that aims at:
•
•
•
The development and use of common national standards for data transmission.
Re-distribution of data and information in accordance with standards and conventions that
have been developed by WMO and agreed to by its members.
Full participation, in the long term, of the NHSs, in the Global Telecommunication System
using internationally agreed standards and data transmission protocols.
Component 4:
Enhanced capacity and communication
While flood forecasts and warning have been an on-going practice at the national level, basin-wide
flood advisories is a new element to be introduced. This means that there is need for general
awareness raising activities to sensitize both the general public and decision makers, and training for
a wider group of staff in government agencies and NGOs involved in disaster preparedness and risk
mitigation.
Training will be carried out at all levels from technicians to administrators and professionals, and the
number of sessions will be adjusted according to the specific needs of the countries. Training will be
conducted through regional courses conducted at the PMU, and through national courses and inservice sessions in the respective countries. Training needs will be assessed annually at both
regional and national levels. The social dimension in disaster preparedness will be addressed
27
through the capacity building activities, stressing notably the importance to mainstream gender in
designing and implementing communication strategies to reach out to the communities.
Component 5:
Up-scaled fully integrated regional project
During the later stage of the Project, the preparation of upscaling will take place and agreement on its
implementation reached. The process will be initiated immediately after the mid-term evaluation in
order to have an agreed proposal ready in time before the present project comes to an end.
The tentative specific objectives of the up-scaled Project are:
•
Implement and activate an up-scaled regional flood information system for the GBM and Indus
river basins involving an extended hydrological observation network that is compatible and
integrated with meteorological networks and observation platforms to improve flood
forecasting and -management.
• Establish local stakeholder groups and define dialogue mechanisms to ensure the system’s
effectiveness at the local levels.
Assess the performance and effectiveness of the system through institutionalized communication and
monitoring platforms involving national and regional participating services and organizations
The expected outcomes are:
•
•
•
An integrated regional flood information system established to deliver flood advisory services
and serve as a platform for sharing flood-related data and information to reduce flood
vulnerability.
The flood information system integrated into the concept of transboundary river basin
management.
Near real-time meteorological and hydrological data and information available to provide
seamless flood forecasting at the national level and flood advisory services on the regional
scale.
C.3
Activity and Workplan
This section describes the details of the activities under each component as outlined in the Workplan.
Result 1: Strengthened framework for cooperation on sharing regional flood data and
information among participating member countries
Major Activities for Result 1:
1.1.
Establishing PMU at ICIMOD
A dedicated Project Management Unit (PMU) is established at ICIMOD with
appropriate infrastructure and office space. The first task of the PMU will be to make
sure the staff is available both at regional and national levels in the NMS and NHSs.
1.2.
Recruiting project staff
28
The process of recruitment of the project staff has to start a few months prior to the
start up of the project implementation. Project staff has to be available at the regional
and national levels.
1.3.
Establishment of a RSC
The Regional Steering Committee will be formed with representatives from all member
countries, ICIMOD, WMO and donor(s). An official letter will be sent out from the PMU
to all concerned requesting for the nomination of their representatives to be a member
of the Regional Steering Committee of the project.
1..4.
Hold a high level inception workshop
A high-level inception workshop will be organized to kick start the project with
participants from the member countries and the RSC Members. Additional participants
from the Disaster Risk Management departments and agencies will also be invited to
participate including regional organization like the SAARC Disaster Management
Centre. This workshop will be held towards the 4th month of project implementation.
During this workshop the roles and responsibilities will be clarified. There will be
discussion and agreement on the tasks to be completed along with a time schedule.
The workshop aims at formulating a plan of operations that responds to specific
requirements and constraints of the project. A final list of sites will be agreed upon
based on the selection criteria.
1.5.
Hold RSC meetings
The RCS meetings will be held on an annual basis. The objectives of the RSC
meetings are to oversee project policy, strategy and implementation, to decide on any
changes to the project document and to keep the project on the right track.
1.6.
Hold Annual Planning meetings
There will be annual planning and coordination meetings in each of the participating
countries, where the relevant national agencies will take part.
Result 2:
Establishment of a flood observation network in selected basins
in the participating countries
Major Activities for Result 2:
2.1.
Identification and selection of additional stations
In addition to the stations that have been identified in Phase I of the project, additional
stations will be selected by the partner countries following the selection criteria agreed
earlier as part of the establishment of a regional flood information system. A final list of
sites will be agreed upon between the PMU and the line agency of each partner
country.
2.2.
Field visit to the selected sites
Field visits to the selected sites will be organized to identify the feasibility of the
proposed technology, and the adequacy of the station. The field visits are aimed at
assessing the status of the actual station and equipment, access to the site and
access to telemetry systems. During the field visits there will also be an assessment of
proposed upgrading of equipment, civil work to be constructed prior to installation and
also an assessment of vandalism risks and need for a full time observer. During the
29
field trip some sites may be discarded or selected to be upgraded. Results from the
field visit will be used to refine the prioritized list of stations per country in consultation
with the line agencies.
2.3
Preparation of a requirement analysis document
Based on the field trip visit and on site inspection of the station a requirement analysis
document will be prepared. The requirement analysis document will indicate the
upgrade of the station in terms of equipment and civil works.
2.4.
Procurement and Delivery of the Equipment
Organization of procurement and delivery of equipment will be in accordance with
ICIMOD procurement guidelines. Based on the quotations and the technical details the
equipment supplier will be selected by the PMU. For the delivery of the equipment
there may be procedures for customs clearance and tax exemption as well as
clearance from individual organizations/agencies, which need to be planned
accordingly. The line agencies will become the owners of the delivered equipment.
Once the equipment is delivered it would be the responsibility of the line agencies to
transport it to the sites for installation.
2.5.
Civil works completed
Where necessary the civil works for station upgrading will be completed.
2.6.
Installation of the equipment
The installation of the equipment will be undertaken by the expert from the supplier
under the supervision of the PMU and the respective line agencies. At each site the
equipment will be installed, tested (verified), calibrated and commissioned.
2.7
Mechanism of data transmission and reception will be established based on the
selected upgrade of the station and in line with the experience and building on the
capacity of the countries.
Result 3:
Establishment of regional and national flood information systems
to share real time data and information and increase lead time
Major Activities for Result 3. :
3.1.
Conduct detailed need analysis of a regional flood information system
Comprehensive analysis of the needs of the participating countries with respect to
database structure, database management system, and software that meet those
needs, leading to the upgrades of the systems as needed. The database enhancement
will depend upon the telemetry system that is going to be adopted by each country.
3..2
Upgrade the infrastructure to establish a regional flood information system
Provide or upgrade computer hardware at each National Hydrometeorological
Services.
3..3
Establish a regional flood information system
Install the database management system software in each national
hydrometeorological services and at the Project Management unit. The PMU will
provide the necessary technical support.
30
3.4
Design and establish the regional database at the PMU, and develop protocols for
data exchange with national centres.
3.5.
Develop and introduce procedures for quality assurance and archiving of incoming
data. Particular attention will be paid to data handling and checking from the raw data
acquired in near real-time, to the screened and validated data set that can be stored in
the main databases and disseminated. Validated data are issued from the line
agencies only.
3.6
Operation of the regional flood information system on routine daily basis.
3.7
Develop and introduce standard procedures and format for basin-wide flood
advisories.
Result 4:
Enhanced technical capacity of partners on flood forecasting and
communication to the end users
For the smooth operation and sustainability of the project trainings and capacity building are an
important component. The enhanced capacity and trainings are expected to be conducted at various
levels. The staff of NMS and NHSs will be trained in various areas to ensure the seamless operation
of the Regional Flood Information System. The training needs will be assessed in each country and
trainings tailor-made accordingly.
Major Activities for Result 4. :
4.1
Training of staff in equipment installation, operation and maintenance
Before the equipment installation, there will be a first three day Regional training with
the objective to train trainers on the new equipment technology. It would be conducted
by International Equipment Supplier Experts.
There will also be National trainings on installation, operation and maintenance of the
equipment, with particular attention to DCPs; and harmonization/common language on
automatic data logger and telemetry. This training will be mainly on-the-job training
since it deals with advanced equipment.
Trainings with the objective to harmonize the procedures at a regional level and to
ensure that the participants involved have a common understanding of the automatic
data logger and telemetry is also foreseen.
4.2
Training of staff in database management
Train staff in the use and maintenance of all components of the database management
system and associated procedures by the international database expert as well as
national database experts. Training will be primarily on-the-job instruction in each
service, with an introductory two-week regional training course supported by follow-up
on-the-job assistance and advice.
4.3
Training of staff in Flood Risk Management and additional areas
31
Training of personnel of NHSs, NMSs and other national services and NGOs and flood
managers, in additional areas identified in relation to project components 2 and 3
above and in other areas. This training could be on Integrated Flood Risk Management
with the purpose to ensure comprehensive understanding of the holistic flood risk
management approaches for risk reduction The training would equip participants with
an analytical framework to allow them to analyze the various dimensions of flood
management and to identify the multidisciplinary input requirements for Integrated
Flood Management for the implementation of a successful end to end flood forecasting
process. The participants will be provided with the knowledge about available tools
and methodologies to improve their flood management practices in their home
institution. The WMO through its Associated Programme on Flood Management
already has several training packages designed for Integrated Flood Risk
Management.
4.4
Result 5:
Conduct public awareness campaigns and sensitising activities
Public awareness and sensitizing activities on end to end flood forecasting process for
staff in government and non-government organizations will be held. The public
awareness campaigns will also be held in the basins after the equipment installation
and operationalization of the flood information system. Particular effort will be made to
reach out for women and other disadvantaged groups since they are most at risk to
floods hazards and can play key roles in early warning systems, preparation and
recovery activities.
Up-scaled regional project planned and agreed among participating
countries
Major Activities for Result 5. :
5.1
Prepare a draft project document for up-scaled project
Based on the recommendations of the mid-term evaluation, and on the conclusions of
a regional workshop organized in that connection, the RSC will give directions for the
preparation of a new phase of the project, which will tentatively be for an up-scaled
regional project. The proposal will be drafted in a participatory process involving
representatives of the countries and assisted by an external consultant.
5.2
Facilitating and concluding a process for regional agreement on the proposal.
The Workplan and detailed plan for implementation is provided in Figure 4.
32
Figure 4: Workplan for the HKH HYCOS project implementation
Workplan
Work Programme
1.Strengthening faramework for cooperation
Establishment of a Project Management Unit (PMU)
Months
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
‐ A PMU established at ICIMOD
‐ Recruitment of Project staff
Establishment of a Regional Steering Committee (RSC)
‐ Send out request letters to the project partners for nomination of the ‐ establishement of A RSC
Inception Workshop
Regional Steeing Committee Meetings
Annual Planning Meetings
2. Establishment of a flood observation network in selected pilot basins
‐ identification and selection of stations ‐ Assessment of status of selected stations
‐ Field visit to the selected sites
‐ Preparation of the requirement analysis document
Procurement and delivery of equipment
‐ procurement of the equipment
‐ delivery of the equipment
Upgradation of the stations
‐ civil works completed
‐ installation of the equipment
Establishment of data tansmission and reception procedures
3. Establishment of a regional and national flood information system to share near real time data and information
Establishement of a flood information system
‐ conduct need analysis of a regional flood information system
‐ upgrade the infrastructure ‐ computer hardware purchase and installation
‐ establish a regional flood information system
Operationalize Regional Flood Information System in Basins
‐ design and establish a regional database
‐ develop procedures for quality assurance and archiving
‐ introduce procedures for quality assurances and archiving
‐ operationalize the regional flood information system
‐ develop and introduce standard procedures and format for basin wide advisories
4. Training and Capacity Building
‐ Training of staff in equipment installation, operation and maintenance
‐ Training of staff in databse management
‐ Training of staff in additional areas that are identified duuring the course of the project
‐ Public awareness campaigns
5. Development of a Up‐scaled regional project
‐ Draft project proposal for Up‐scaled project drafted
‐ Regional agreement on the proposal
6. Reporting
‐ Quarterly progress report
‐ Annual Report
‐ Publication
33
D.
ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT
General outline
The organization and management of the project is based on the concept that the
participating countries have full ownership of the project and will execute the project
through their dedicated national organizations and agencies. The WMO and ICIMOD are
jointly facilitating the process of planning and region-wide implementation of the project
within their specific mandate in the project, which is described in detail in the following
paragraphs. In its facilitating role, ICIMOD will be responsible for the coordination of the
regional implementation of the project by setting up a Project Management Unit (PMU).
WMO as the custodian of WHYCOS will be responsible for the technical support and
monitoring of the project. The supreme executive role will be vested with the Regional
Steering Committee (RSC) in which the participating countries and their executing
agencies and the facilitating agencies will be adequately represented.
D.1
Facilitating, implementing and executing partners in the project
The project will be facilitated with technical support provided by ICIMOD in an
implementing and coordinating role and the WMO in a supporting and advisory role.
The project will be executed by the relevant national institutions of the participating
countries listed below as follows:
Bangladesh
Bhutan
China
India
Nepal
Pakistan
Bangladesh Water Development Board and the Bangladesh
Meteorological Department
Department of Energy and the Department of Geology and Mines
Meteorological Administration and the Bureau of Hydrology
Central Water Commission and the India Meteorological Department
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and the Department of Water
Induced Disaster Prevention
Pakistan Meteorological Department and the Federal Flood Commission
In addition, countries may decide to add other national organizations with a defined role
in the execution of the project.
D.2
Management and reporting structure
A project Regional Steering Committee (RSC) will be established to oversee policy
issues and the strategy and implementation of the project. ICIMOD will be the
Implementing and Coordinating Agency. The PMU will be established at ICIMOD and
headed by a Project Coordinator/Manager. Project performance monitoring will be
provided by WMO in its role as a monitoring agency, in collaboration with ICIMOD and
the PMU to ensure consistency in the implementation of the project. Staff of the PMU will
include a Data Processing Expert and a Technical Assistant. The job descriptions of the
34
Project Coordinator/Manager and the Data Processing Expert are given in Annex 2.
Provision is also made for short-term services of international consultants on
hydrometeorology, flood forecasting and database management. The staff of the PMU
should preferably be drawn from within the region, with due attention given to
competence and experience of the candidates in the selection process. The selection of
the staff of the PMU will be made by ICIMOD. Project management will be guided by an
annual project plan, against which reporting will be made to the PMU semi-annually.
ICIMOD is centrally located in the HKH region and each of the countries is officially
represented on its Board of Governors. ICIMOD draws on professional expertise from
the participating countries and has substantial experience in water resources and hazard
management, some of which in transboundary settings. ICIMOD is well qualified to
undertake the role of Implementing and Coordinating Agency. The ICIMOD Secretariat
will be the host for the PMU. Details of ICIMOD’s activities can be viewed at URL:
http://www.icimod.org.
WMO shall be the Monitoring and Technical/Scientific Support Agency. WMO, as the
custodian of WHYCOS, has been collaborating with National Hydrological and
Meteorological Services and donor organizations in the planning and implementing of
more than fifteen demand-driven regional HYCOS projects involving in excess of 100
countries in various regions of the world. WMO will facilitate data and information
exchange and provide technical support and guidance so as to ensure that HKHHYCOS is consistent with other HYCOS projects and meets the global objectives of
WHYCOS. The full scope of WMO's overall activities can be viewed at
http://www.wmo.ch. Specific information on the WHYCOS programme of WMO can be
viewed at www.whycos.org.
D 3 Responsibilities of project implementers
D.3.1 Regional Steering Committee (RSC)
The RSC will be the highest executive body of the project. Its role will be to ensure
project coherence and to oversee project policy, strategy, and implementation. It will
decide on any changes to the project document and approve the annual work plans,
budgets and reports, and undertake the other responsibilities as listed in Table 5. The
Committee will consist of representatives of the participating countries and their
executing agencies, the Facilitating Organizations ICIMOD and WMO, and will be
serviced by the PMU. To ensure the effectiveness of the RSC, the participating countries
will designate representatives with clear decision-making authority in matters pertaining
to the implementation of the project within an agreed policy framework. These
representatives are expected to attend all meetings and be able to devote the time
needed for the work of the Committee. As an important part of its activities, the RSC will
prepare detailed proposals for further phases of the project and in particular with regard
to the expansion of services provided by the project described here with respect to
advanced regional early warning products, the expansion of the hydrometeorological
network contributing to the regional flood information system and capacity building.
35
Table 5: Responsibilities of the Regional Steering Committee
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Determine project policies and strategies
Mediate different interests among participating countries and executing agencies
Approve the project implementation plan and the project implementation manual
Approve annual work plans, budgets and reports
Approve changes to the project document
Evaluate project progress and impacts
Provide a communication channel with regional bodies and other national,
regional and global organizations as required
Seek concurrence with higher national authorities as required
Facilitate the development of follow-up phases of the current project phase on
the basis of progress made in the funded project phase and emerging needs.
Facilitate the development of complementary project proposals in line with
national and regional interest of countries.
Facilitate the development of a contingency plan for post-project operation and
maintenance of the technical project outputs and for post-project co-ordination.
D.3.2 Participating countries
The participating countries through their dedicated national agencies and organizations
have the primary responsibility for the execution of the project. Their responsibilities are
listed in Table 6. To assure project success and to help assure post-project sustainability,
it will be essential to have an agreement of the participating countries to act on these
responsibilities. This will be in the form of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)
between ICIMOD and the participating countries. The partner countries should commit
themselves to provide the real-time data generated under the project to the PMU. The
likelihood of project success will be increased if funds can be provided to the NMS and
NHS of the participating country to cover their project-related costs. The Facilitating
Agencies will assist participating countries and in particular their national agencies in
determining their budgetary requirements to meet their obligations and fulfil their
responsibilities in the project.
Table 6: Responsibilities of the participating countries/national organizations
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Provide support to missions by staff from the Facilitating Agencies, PMU and
project consultants
Provide appropriately qualified staff to participate in project activities, as required
Manage any impediments to successful project execution (e.g. land access)
Carry out installation and other work required to establish the projects
components, with the assistance of the PMU
Perform on-going, routine activities related to the operation and maintenance of
project installations and the operation of the national components of the regional
flood information system
Disseminate data and information to users, and to the PMU
Provide information about the project to national authorities, the public, as well as
other regional and global organizations with an interest in project activities and
results
36
D.3.3 Implementing and Coordinating Agency - ICIMOD
ICIMOD, as the Implementing and Coordinating Agency is responsible for the day-to-day
implementing and coordination of the project activities which includes the management
of external project funds, tender and procurement processes and technical assistance in
the establishment of components of the project (such as Data Collection Platforms)
within the scope of the project. It will be responsible for implementation, management
and administrative/financial control of the project, as well as the other tasks that are
summarized in Table 8. ICIMOD will establish the PMU as a sub-unit of its organization.
The PMU will carry out the project activities within the scope of its responsibility as
outlined in Table 7 under the responsibility and control of ICIMOD to which it will report
regularly.
Table 7: Responsibilities of ICIMOD
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Obtain and administer project funding and its allocation to project partners
Prepare a draft detailed project implementation plan
Set-up the PMU
Manage the tender process for the provision of services and procurement of
equipment under the individual sub-projects; all procurement will be made in
accordance with ICIMOD procurement guidelines
Manage procurement of materials and equipment
Provide the RSC with a six-monthly progress report
Provide administrative assistance of the project
D.3.4 Project Management Unit (PMU)
The PMU represents the dedicated organizational unit of the Implementing and
Coordinating Agency. It will act as a focal point to coordinate the project activities
executed in and by the participating countries, foster regional cooperation in sharing
basin-wide flood data and information, and provide a forum for exchange of expertise. A
key function and responsibility of the PMU is to ensure the reception and re-distribution
of all data and information compiled in real-time and through other means from
contributions of participating countries and their dedicated services and to develop and
widely distribute regional information products that have been generated from national
information and additional sources from collaborating institutions providing regional
information products such as Medium Range Weather and Precipitation Prediction
Products. Table 8 summarises the responsibilities, and Annex 4 provides additional
information.
Table 8: Summary responsibilities of the Project Management Unit
•
•
•
•
•
•
Act as a focal point to implement and coordinate the project activities executed in
and by the participating countries
Prepare a project implementation manual and a post-project contingency plan
Monitor receipt of observed data and forward data to NMHSs that do not have
direct access to satellite data
Manage a regional database and associated functions (data dissemination etc.).
Provide all services (training, on-going assistance and advice etc) which are not
provided under other arrangements
Foster regional technical and scientific cooperation in the field of flood monitoring
37
•
and management
Provide a forum for exchange of expertise and knowledge
D.3.5 Technical/Scientific Support Agency - WMO
The WMO as the Technical/Scientific Support Agency will facilitate and provide technical
support for the implementation of the project. WMO as the custodian of the WHYCOS
will provide critical technical service to guide the PMU on the implementation of the
project, ensuring that the project takes maximum benefits from lessons learned in
implementing other HYCOS projects and ensuring its linkage with on-going or planned
HYCOS components and with the global WHYCOS programme. As such, WMO shall be
member of the RSC and provide assistance throughout the duration of the project. The
responsibilities of WMO are listed in Table 9.
Table 9: Summary responsibilities of WMO
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
E.
Provide overall guidance in the planning and implementation of the project to ensure its
coherence with the guiding principles of global WHYCOS projects
Assist in seeking project funding
Provide for technical guidance in project planning and implementation
Support ICIMOD by advising on technical standards
Advise on the preparation and evaluation of tenders for equipment and services
Support the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the participating countries
with technical support in agreement with the PMU
Provide the link with the meteorological community to facilitate the establishment of
telecommunication facilities including, if relevant, the exchange of data through the WMO
Information System (WIS) and other means of telecommunication
Interact with the project, through regular missions and participation in the RSC meetings and
other meetings as necessary
PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION
E.1
Project start-up
The project will be implemented in close collaboration with the national counterpart
agencies, as listed in Section D.1 above, of the six countries sharing the Indus and the
GBM river basins through the PMU that will function with support from ICIMOD. It will
procure and provide field equipment for the collection and transmission of data, office
equipment for data reception and for database development and management and
training of staff of the NHSs and NMSs in modern hydrological practices. It will also
secure and provide the services of international experts to assist with the implementation
of specific project activities. The project will commence with the recruitment of the
Project Manager/Coordinator.
A Project Implementation Manual will be produced at the outset of project
implementation, which will establish, among other things, the methods and procedures
for procurement of equipment and services.
Individual MoUs will be prepared and signed between ICIMOD and the line agency for
38
each country with regard to the conduct of civil works necessary for the establishment
and/or upgrading of hydrometeorological stations. The MoUs will contain an agreement
regulating the responsibility and cost sharing for operation and maintenance of the
stations. The costs sharing will be phased in such a way that the project covers 100% in
the first year, which is gradually reduced to zero either at the end of the Project or after a
few years into the scaled up Project. As relevant, such agreements should also cover
other equipment provided with project funding. A contingency plan for post-project
operation and maintenance of the technical project outputs and for post-project
coordination will also be prepared by the PMU.
E.2
Input requirements
The external funding required to support the implementation of the project is estimated
at US$ 2.7 million over a three year period. The NHS and NMSs from participating
countries will meet the costs such as local staff salaries, transportation and office
accommodation and will provide as co-financing to the project. This is conservatively
estimated at around US$ 700,000.
The estimated budget of the project is given in Table 10 below. As shown the cost of
project personnel will be about 28% of the total budget. The supply and installation of
field and office equipment will cover about 36% of the budget. Capacity building, training
and public awareness related activities will cost about 6% of the total budget. A
summary of the budget estimates is provided in Table 10 below.
Table 10: Summary of cost estimate for the Project
Project Component/activity
Cost estimate in USD
Project personnel (Regional and
International Experts)
Framework for cooperation (Meetings
and Mission Travels)
Flood observation network (upgraded
hydromet stations – Equipment
Procurement, civil works and
installation)
Flood information system (computers,
database, software)
Capacity Building, Training and public
awareness
Planning for a up-scaled regional
project
Project evaluation and monitoring
Support to PMU
WMO support cost
ICIMOD Institutional Support Cost
Total External Funding for the
Project
39
% of total cost
754.800
28
383,300
14
732.000
27
230,000
9
155,000
6
40,000
34,000
36,000
90,000
244,900
1
1
1
3
9
2,700,000.0
100
E.3
Project monitoring, reporting and evaluation
The project will be monitored and evaluated based on the ICIMOD’s results base M&E
system. Six-monthly reports will be prepared by ICIMOD for transmittal to the RSC. All
reports will cover technical, financial, and administrative matters, using the performance
indicators agreed upon. This reporting should also include particular reference to
exceptions (i.e. failures to achieve planned results), changing circumstances that
present threats or risks to the project, and measures taken or proposed in response. The
reports should be suitable for distribution to partners and key stakeholders, and
therefore should be of more than simply administrative interest. Project progress and
achievements will be evaluated by the RSC, based on monitoring and evaluation
documentation during annual review meetings.
Reporting procedures will be established with donors in accordance with their
preferences.
A mid-term independent evaluation will be carried out after two years of implementation
of the project. For this purpose, a consultant will be appointed for a period of up to one
month. He/She will visit the PMU and the participating countries and will report to the
RSC and to donors.
Performance indicators
The Logical Framework (Annex 1) includes a preliminary list of indicators of achievement,
and the associated means of verification. During the inception stage of the project, and
as a part of producing the project implementation manual, the preliminary indicators will
be further elaborated in a detailed project implementation plan, which will specify
milestones and verifiable indicators of achievements as well as the project reporting
mechanism. These details will be agreed upon by all parties during the inception
workshop. As far as possible, acceptable levels of the indicators will need to be
quantified, so that achievement can be compared against predefined standards. Some
indicators (e.g. the acceptability of a QA programme) will require judgment by WMO,
donors and the RSC. Normally, achievement of results will be verified by reports to the
RSC or files maintained for Quality Assurance purposes by output providers. In some
cases, a less formal approach to verification will be necessary, via interviews with NHS
and NMS Directors or stakeholders.
F.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
The project design is based on a number of assumptions relating directly to the project
purpose, including:
1. The WMO Information System Service including its Global Telecommunication
System will be accessible to the project;
2. The Facilitating Agencies will be able to maintain awareness of events and
changing circumstances that have an impact on the project;
3. The Facilitating Agencies will be able to establish and maintain effective working
relations with the participating national governments, the NHSs and NMSs, and
other stakeholders;
4. It will be possible to arrange payment of NHSs and NMSs for disbursements and
services that they provide under the project;
40
5. Participating national governments and their departments/ministries will agree to
their NHSs and NMSs taking responsibility for the routine project activities;
6. The regional flood observation network can be technically operated and protected
against vandalism and other damage;
7. Financing of O&M of the observation network as well as future replacement
investments is secured;
8. The O&M and financing of the regional flood information system is secured.
9. NHS and NMS staff that are trained by the project will be retained by their
Service, or it will be possible to train replacements in time for them to take
responsibility for project tasks;
10. Donor support and matching funds from country support will be assured.
11. Some of the international organisations/institutions will maintain a long-term
interest in the project.
Additional critical assumptions for achieving the overall project objective include:
1. Governments and other actors at national level make use of the flood information
system and are efficient in disseminating warnings without delays through
multiple media to the people at risk.
2. People at risk are aware and able to take immediate measures to protect
themselves and their property against flood incidents.
G.
RISKS
The technical and financial risks are generally ranked as of low to medium importance,
and they should be manageable. The key issues involving risks and expected mitigating
strategies are listed below as follows:
Risk 1:
Lack of cooperation between the various NHSs and NMSs in the HKH
Region and the PMU in the project design and implementation [low].
Mitigating Strategy: The participating governments and the national
agencies concerned have demonstrated, during two prior consultative
meetings, their desire to work cooperatively in sharing information for
regional flood management. In addition, ICIMOD provides the regional
mechanism and focus for the project. Any issues with respect to the
cooperation would be managed through ICIMOD and the open and
participatory approach that has been developed should continue.
Provisions will be made for compensating for possible incomplete
availability of hydro-meteorological data due to malfunction of stations,
inability to share data due to political reasons etc. This can be, for
instance, the use of satellite based altimetry for control of water levels in
rivers or the use of modelling based on historical data.
Risk 2:
NHSs and NMSs staff may be overburdened and have limited time to
participate in the project execution due to other commitments [low].
41
Mitigating Strategy: The project directly involves the high level officials of
the Departments of Water and of Meteorology of each participating
country, who are aware of staff commitments and other on-going and
potential projects. Flood management is considered a high priority due to
its political dimension.
Risk 3:
Field equipment installed by the project may be damaged or destroyed
due to vandalism, theft or natural disasters such as floods and thus
impact on the project activities [medium].
Mitigating Strategy: The project will work with the NHSs and NMSs and
the PMU to ensure adequate protection of equipment and that adequate
spares and replacement instruments are available. As appropriate and
according the needs determined, and risk for vandalism assessed, full
time observers can be hired and located at or nearby the locations of the
stations, which would also act as guards and security for the stations. All
the participating countries routinely operate long-term hydrometeorological networks and have ample national and local experience to
prevent significant occurrences of vandalism. The conditions of these
stations can be assessed as part of the project, and the reasons for their
successful provision of long term data series can be highlighted and
serve as input to the location of additional stations in the region.
Risk 4:
Failure to implement project activities due to security problems [medium].
Mitigating Strategy: Security problems exist in certain isolated areas of
the project region. However, the areas of high risk are known and will be
excluded in the project design. There is a almost negligible risk that the
project could be suspended due to a deterioration of security throughout
all project areas in the six participating countries.
H.
SUSTAINABILITY
Experience in many developing countries indicates that it is impossible to assure the
long-term sustainability of a development project. In the water resources sector, many
projects have been implemented but have had little or no lasting effect. A range of
reasons can be identified, including the frequent loss of key staff, the higher priority
placed by governments on other areas of expenditure, government restructuring,
inadequate provision for on-going operation and maintenance, and so forth. The risk
assessment in Section G above attempts to identify and address these reasons for lack
of sustainability.
Fundamentally, projects are more likely to be maintained if they clearly meet a need of
which the government is fully aware, and the benefits of post-project expenditure clearly
exceed the costs, and the benefits of other possible expenditures. The benefits to be
derived from this project with regard to the protection of life and property and poverty
alleviation are abundantly clear from both the socio-economic and political perspectives.
A key thrust of the project is to maximise participation and technical capacity in the
participating National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and supporting national
42
and regional organizations, so that they are willing and able to continue the project
activities after the project’s external funding is terminated. The likelihood of post-project
sustainability varies considerably among the countries of the region. The project is
conceived and designed to maximise the likelihood of sustainability in all participating
countries, but it cannot realistically be guaranteed. Some countries will be able to standalone; others will require further external assistance. The regional bodies will have a
crucial role to play, in either case.
To assure sustainability beyond the end of the project, the equipment (including
observing stations, analytical procedures, and computer systems) must be handed over
to partner countries as a “going concern”. To assure project success and post-project
sustainability, a Memorandum of Understanding for a commitment to act on countries’
responsibilities is essential prior the commencement of the project implementation
between the project core partners, which are ICIMOD, WMO and the participating
countries. It is also important that the technology that is selected is appropriate to the
HKH region, including the acquired skills of NHS and NMS staff during the design life of
the equipment. The RSC has a key role to ensure that these and other sustainability
issues are being addressed.
ICIMOD celebrated its 25th anniversary in December 2008. Since its establishment by
the eight member countries, and with support from UNESCO in 1983, ICIMODs
importance as a regional hub and knowledge provider and broker in the HKH region
have continuously increased. This can be seen from a gradually increased annual
budget, increased project portfolio, and increased interest for its services and
contribution to the development scene in the region. It is highly unlikely that ICIMOD
after 25 years of operation should run into the risk of closing down its business. If any
threats would mount towards the organisation, it would in worst case probably lead to a
redefinition of its mandate, function, ownership or implementing role in the region, but it
is regarded as a minimal risk that ICIMOD would terminate its function completely.
Hence, the sustainability of ICIMOD as a regional centre to the long term sustainability of
the project is regarded as negligible.
43
ANNEX 1: LOGICAL FRAMEWORK
Overall Objective
Minimised loss of lives and
livelihoods by reducing flood
vulnerability in the HKH region with
specific reference to the GangesBrahmaputra-Meghna and Indus
river basins.
Project Purpose
Indicators
Reduced number of loss of lives and livelihoods
damaged as reported in regional and national
Statistics
Indicators
Sources of
verification
Assumptions
Regional and
national flood
disaster statistics
Sources of
verification
Assumptions
Mid-Term
Evaluation Report,
Monitoring Reports
and partners
feedback reports
and regular
progress reports
Institutionalized
sharing of data and
information has
been established
1. An extension of the lead-time for flood warning in
the selected basin(s) verified by partners and
independent experts.
Timely exchange of flood data and
information within and among
participating countries through an
established and agreed platform
which is accessible and user
friendly.
2. A working model of the project demonstrated to
national and local stakeholders in participating
countries by the end of the project.
3. Establishment of efficient and effective information
dissemination in selected areas by the end of the
project.
4..A real-time flood information system is applied,
accepted and institutionalized by the concerned
partners in regional member countries by the end of
the project
44
Sources of
verification
Results
Indicators
1.Strengthened framework for
cooperation on sharing regional
flood data and information among
participating member countries
1.1 Quality of tangible outcomes and adequate
participation in annual Regional Steering Committee
meetings.
1.2 Agreements on pilot level activities for regular
information sharing.
Reports of the
meetings
2.1 Number of upgraded hydrometeorological
stations including telemetry in the participating
countries
Documentation of
the configuration of
upgraded stations
including telemetry
Reliable operation
and maintenance of
project stations
including
telecommunication
system is ensured
Real time flood
data and
information
products are
regularly available
and updated
Reliable operation
and maintenance of
project stations
including
telecommunication
system is ensured
Feedback reports
from partners
Sufficient resources
are available for
participating
institutions
Project Proposal
There is consensus
among partner
countries for a upscaled regional
project, expression
of interest by
donors
2. Establishment of a flood
observation network in selected
basins in the participating
countries
3. Establishment of regional and
national flood information systems
to share real time data and
information and increase lead time
3.1 A flood information system in place
3.2 % of HYCOS stations properly functioning
3.3 % of HYCOS stations with successful data and
information transmission and use by
participating countries
4. Enhanced technical capacity of
partners on flood forecasting and Partners of participating countries operating and
communication to the end users.
maintaining the flood information system
5. Up-scaled regional
planned and agreed
participating countries.
project
among Project Proposal Developed upon the agreements
with partners.
45
Assumptions
Activities
Means
Costs
Assumptions
Result 1:
Strengthened Framework for Cooperation on sharing regional flood data and information among
participating member countries
Activity 1.1 – Establishment of a Project
Management Unit
Activity 1.2 – Recruiting Project staff
Activity 1.3 – Establishment of a Regional
Steering Committee
Activity 1.4 - Organize a High Level
inception meeting for the
launching of the project
Activity 1.5 - Organize annual Regional
Steering Committee (RSC) and
implementation/co-ordination
meetings of technical experts of
the participating countries
• Project Management
Unit staff
• Consultants
• Meetings
• Office Space
Activity 1.6- Organize annual meetings of
national co-operating agencies
within each of the participating
countries
US$383,300
Each country will make available
the services of suitably qualified
experts to work on the project
The relevant national agencies
will be invited to participate in the
project
46
Activities
Means
Costs
Assumptions
Result 2. Establishment of a flood observation network in selected basins in the participating countries
Activity 2.1 – Identification and selection of additional
stations for the Regional Flood Information
System
Activity 2.2 – Field Visits to the sites
•
•
•
•
Participating countries propose
additional stations for the
expanded network
Field visits
Equipment
PMU staff
Consultants
Activity 2.3 – Preparation of a requirement analysis
document
Activity 2.4 – Procurement and delivery of equipment
for 30 hydrometeorological stations; (DCPs
with sensors and peripherals) and 6
meteorological stations (upgrade with data
transmission capability)
US$732,000
Activity 2.5 - Civil works carried out for upgradation
of the stations –
New equipment will be
standardized and compatible
with existing equipment building
on existing capacities
Logistic facilities provided by
NMHSs
Activity 2.6 – Installation of the equipment
Telecommunication platforms
and communication procedures
agreed by stakeholders
Activity 2.7 – Establishment of data transmission and
reception procedures
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Activities
Means
Costs
Assumptions
Result 3. Establishment of regional and national flood information systems to share real time data and information and
increase lead time
Activity 3.1- Conduct a detailed need
analysis of a regional flood
information system
Activity 3.2 – Provide/upgrade computer
hardware and software for
NMHSs and PMU, install
databases and provide training
and technical support
Activity 3.3 – Design and establish a
regional flood information
system
Activity 3.4 – Develop protocols for data
exchange with national centres
•
•
•
•
PMU Staff
Consultants
Database
Computers and
accessories
Activity 3.5 – Develop procedures for
quality assurance
Activity 3.6 – PMU operates the regional
flood information system on
routine daily basis
Activity 3.7 – Develop and Introduce
procedures for basin-wide flood
advisories
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Participating countries provide regularly
data and information from national
stations dedicated for the project
US$230,000
Activities
Means
Costs
Assumptions
Result 4. Enhanced technical capacity of partners on flood forecasting and communication to the end users.
Activity 4.1 - Training of staff in the installation,
NMHSs second staff for
• A number of
operation and maintenance of the
trainings
trainings
equipment
• PMU Staff
• Consultants
Activity 4.2 – Training in database management
Staff to be trained will have the
appropriate technical and
• Press releases
professional background
• Information
brochures
Activity 4.3: Training based on assessed needs
• Public awareness
US$155,000
in addition to the training provide d under
materials
components 1, 2 and 3 above, provide further
training in accordance to assessed needs
Activity 4.4 – Public awareness activities
NMHSs agree on procedures
and information products
Promote awareness activities for the general
public, government agencies, NGOs and decisionmakers on flood forecasting and warning services
Result 5. Up-scaled regional project planned and agreed among participating countries.
Activity 5.1 – Development of a project proposal
for upscaled project
Activity 5.2 – Facilitation of agreement on the
upscaled project
•
•
PMU staff
Consultants
49
US$40,000
Consensus amongst partners
Basis for political decision in the
countries
ANNEX 2: JOB DESCRIPTIONS OF THE PROFESSIONALS OF THE PROJECT
MANAGEMENT UNIT (PMU)
¾ Project Coordinator/Manager
In close collaboration with the personnel of the Project Management Unit (PMU),
the National Hydrological Services (NHSs) of the participating countries and the
WMO Secretariat, the Project Coordinator/Manager will be responsible for the
overall coordination and management of the project, covering all the technical
and financial aspects. In particular, the expert will carry out the following:
•
Undertake the actions needed, including the organization of meetings, for the
establishment of a regional “Framework for Cooperation” in the field of flood
forecasting and warning;
•
Facilitate Tendering and contracting of civil works per country in liaison with
the line agencies;
•
Ensure the procurement, delivery and installation of equipment ;
•
Establish the data transmission/reception mechanism and procedures;
•
Oversee the design and establishment of the regional database and the
development of quality assurance procedures;
•
Organize the training of staff of the NHSs in the installation, operation and
maintenance of both field and office equipment and database management;
•
Organize regional trainings/workshops;
•
Develop and introduce procedures for basin-wide flood warnings;
•
Advise on public awareness activities;
•
Develop detailed proposals for a full-scale regional flood forecasting and
warning system.
The Project Manager/Coordinator should be a hydrologist or a water resources
expert, holding an advanced university degree in hydrology, water resources
engineering, or in a relevant scientific field. He/she should have a minimum of
fifteen years of varied experience in hydrology and water resources management
of which at least five years should be on the operation and management of flood
forecasting and warning systems.
The Expert should have a thorough knowledge of the organization and operation
of National Hydrological Services and should be fully acquainted with the concept
and practice of integrated water management issues at transboundary river basin
scale. He/she should have worked with the development and operation of
hydrological and water resources information systems and should be familiar with
conventional and modern equipment and techniques for hydrological data
collection, including up-to-date knowledge on remote sensing and data
transmission technology.
The Project Manager should have sound knowledge and experience in
hydrological modelling and of operational flood forecasting systems. Knowledge
50
and experience in hydrological data processing, hydrological database design
and operation, and data and information dissemination using the Internet are
prerequisites.
The Project Manager shall have experience of procurement of equipment and
services. Previous experience in technical and financial management and
reporting on large international development projects is recommended.
Knowledge of the institutional and technical aspects of the WMO WHYCOS
programme and its regional HYCOS components, as well as familiarity with the
water resources management issues in Hindu-Kush-Himalayan region is highly
desirable.
Data Processing Expert
Under the supervision of the Project Manager/Coordinator, and in cooperation
with the staff of the PMU and the NHSs, the Data Processing Expert will be
responsible for the following:
•
Undertake the design and establishment of the regional database;
•
Advise on the equipment and software needs for the regional database and
for national databases as required;
•
Develop the procedures for quality assurance and transfer of the required
hydrological data and information:
•
Provide appropriate training in database management to staff of the PMU and
of the NHSs;
•
Advise on database needs for the full-scale project.
The Data Processing Expert should hold a University degree in hydrology or
water resources, or a related environmental science or computer science. He/she
should have a minimum of five years of experience in designing, documenting
and operating information systems for the environment projects having a strong
water resources component.
He/she must have hands-on experience in networking (TCP/IP, FTP and HTTP)
and using major commercial relational databases (e.g. Oracle, Access, SQL
Server). Extensive experience in an object orientated programming language
(like C++ or Dephi) will be needed to decode CREX messages and populating
the RDB. Knowledge of maintaining and setting up a web based server using
Microsoft Internet Information Server is also a requirement.
Experience in organising training sessions on database operation and in
preparing user and maintenance guides is required.
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ANNEX 3: DRAFT TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT
UNIT (PMU)
The Project Management Unit (PMU) is an essential component of the project
implementation structure whose basic aim is to ensure the long-term sustainability of the
project activities. The PMU will therefore act as a focal point to coordinate the project
activities executed in and by the participating countries, foster regional cooperation in
sharing basin-wide flood data and information, and provide a forum for exchange of
expertise. The PMU will be supported by staff assigned to the project by the participating
National Hydrological Services and will work in close collaboration with the project
personnel during the active implementation phase of the project.
In particular, The PMU will:
Act as a focal point to coordinate the Project activities executed in and by the
participating countries;
Monitor the status and performance of the DCPs;
Receive and forward data to NHSs and NMSs that do not have direct access to
satellite data;
Manage a regional database and associated functions (data and information
dissemination);
Provide all services (training, technical assistance and advice) which are not
provided under other arrangements;
Foster regional technical and scientific cooperation in the field of flood monitoring
and management;
Provide a forum for exchange of expertise and knowledge.
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