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A Comparative Analysis of Vulnerabilities, Responses and
Adaptation Strategies to Tropical Cyclones in Asia:
Defining the Philippines Country Study
Frank Thomalla1, Rex Victor Cruz2, Victoria O. Espaldon3, Flaviana Hilario4, Richard J.T. Klein5,
Felino Lansigan6, Rodel Lasco2, Damasa B. Magcale-Macandog7, Fe K. Mallion2, Doracie B. ZoletaNantes3, Rosa T. Perez8, Florencia Pulhin2, Juan Pulhin2, Roberto Ranola Jr.
1
2
Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Lilla Nygatan 1, Box 2142, 103 14 Stockholm, Sweden.
[email protected]
Environmental Forestry Programme, College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the
Philippines Los Baños (UPLB), College, Laguna, Philippines, 3 Department of Geography, College
of Social Science and Philosophy, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines
4
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), Climatology and
Agrometeorology Branch, Agham Road, Quezon City 1104, Philippines, 5Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany., 6Institute of Statistics, College of Arts
and Sciences, University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB), Laguna, Philippines, 7 Ecoinformatics
Laboratory, Environmental Biology Division, Institute of Biological Sciences, University of the Philippines
Los Baños (UPLB), Laguna, Philippines., 8 Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA), Department of Science and Technology, Weather and Flood
Forecasting Center, Agham Road, Quezon City 1104, Philippines, 9Department of Agricultural Economics,
College of Economics and Management, University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB), College, Laguna,
Philippines
ABSTRACT
Tropical cyclones are one of the most destructive of all natural disasters and account for one eighth of
all weather-related deaths worldwide. High wind speeds and associated storm surges can cause
substantial damage up to tens of km inland. Tidal flooding accounts for much of the coastal impacts
and high-intensity precipitation and rainfall-induced inland flooding often affect areas hundreds of
kilometres from the coast. Coastal erosion, saline intrusion, contamination of freshwater supplies, and
the destruction of crops and livestock often lead to longer-term problems, such as the loss of
livelihoods, disease and famine, and may affect the economy for years. The prospect of climate change
and sea-level rise increases the need to prepare for cyclones, whilst the development of an
international climate adaptation regime increases the opportunities to do so. This project will examine
community vulnerability and responses to cyclones in the context of high impact events in Bangladesh,
India and the Philippines. Through in-depth country studies and regional workshops with experts,
policymakers and stakeholders, the project aims to a) determine factors that decrease vulnerability to
cyclones, b) analyse hazard policy responses, c) investigate the transferability of the lessons learned to
other regions, and d) develop strategies for building capacity and mainstreaming adaptation policy into
longer-term development strategies. Of central importance is the development of a common
methodological framework with which parallel analyses of institutional response on national, regional
and local levels can be undertaken, and which will allow an evaluation and comparison of the
processes affecting vulnerability. This paper presents the overall research framework consisting of
four consecutive stages focussing on methodological development, case studies, comparative analysis,
and adaptation strategy development, and provides a detailed description of the activities planned for
the Philippines country study.
Key words: tropical cyclones, adaptation, climate change, India, Bangladesh, Philippines.
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INTRODUCTION
Tropical cyclones are one of the most destructive of all natural disasters and account for one eighth of
all weather-related deaths worldwide. High wind speeds and associated storm surges can cause
substantial damage up to tens of km inland. Tidal flooding accounts for much of the coastal impacts
and high-intensity precipitation and rainfall-induced inland flooding often affect areas hundreds of
kilometres from the coast. Coastal erosion, saline intrusion, contamination of freshwater supplies, and
the destruction of crops and livestock often lead to longer-term problems, such as the loss of
livelihoods, disease and famine, and may affect the economy for years. The Third Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) particularly highlights the
vulnerability of developing countries to climate variability and change, because of their limited
abilities to prepare for and cope with the impacts. Sea-level rise is expected to increase these
countries’ vulnerability not only to tidal flooding but also to tropical storms and storm surges (IPCC,
2001). Increasing sea surface temperatures may lead to an increase in the frequency and intensity of
tropical cyclones and rapidly expanding populations leading to further development along coastal
areas are expected to increase vulnerability to climate change further (Nicholls et al., 1995).
RATIONALE
The development of effective and sustainable forms of adaptation to tropical cyclone impacts requires
response assessments to be undertaken across sectors, regions and countries. Aiming at reducing
community vulnerability to cyclone hazards, this project will actively support policy development in
developing countries by identifying opportunities to build adaptive capacity and to mainstream
adaptation strategies into ongoing development policies. Community vulnerability and hazard
response will be examined in the context of specific storms that caused significant damage and loss of
life. These are the 1991 cyclone in Bangladesh, the 1999 cyclone in Orissa, India, and the 2003
typhoon Imbudo in the Philippines. The 1991 Bangladesh cyclone caused the death of more than
138,000 people and resulted in economic losses of USD 2,400 million (Haider, 1992). In 1999 two
severe cyclones in close succession caused extensive damage in Orissa (OSDMA, 2001). Estimates of
lives lost are on the order of 10,000. In financial terms, the damage resulting from both cyclones is
estimated at USD 1,600 million. In the Philippines, typhoon Imbudo affected 26 cities including
Manila in July 2003, with 67 people killed and an economic cost of USD 7.4 million (BBC, 2003).
A common methodological framework, to be developed jointly between a number of research
institutes, government authorities and non-governmental organisations in Europe and in Asia, will
enable us to undertake parallel analyses of institutional response on national, regional and local levels
in all three countries and allow us to evaluate and compare the processes that affect vulnerability.
Because cyclones present an important climate hazard to a number of regions, we expect our findings
to provide valuable lessons and insights that can be applied to reduce cyclone vulnerability in other
regions of the world. The project will strengthen North-South and South-South co-operation through a
number of regional workshops and through the involvement of local and regional stakeholders in
undertaking case study assessments.
OBJECTIVES
Given the magnitude of the adverse impacts of tropical cyclones on the poverty reduction and
development efforts in the case study countries, reducing community vulnerability to climate-related
natural hazards and adapting to long-term climate change is a matter of utmost importance. Based on a
thorough analysis of relevant stakeholder institutions and their roles and activities, this project is
envisaged to make an important contribution to the development of feasible response strategies. Using
a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches we will investigate policy processes at all
political levels (local, regional, national and international) and identify opportunities for action.
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The main objective of the overall Asia project framework is to develop strategies for enhancing
adaptive capacity of the different stakeholders to reduce the vulnerability of communities to the
adverse effects of tropical cyclones and to determine whether strategies developed to increase the
adaptive capacity of a community can be replicated in other regions and countries. Specifically, each
country study (Bangladesh, India, Philippines) is designed to:
! establish a reliable baseline on biophysical, socio-economic, technological and environmental
information on vulnerable communities to heavy rains, strong winds, flooding and drainage
problems associated with the occurrence of tropical cyclones
! analyse existing policy responses of different institutions to cyclone hazards (top down approach).
! develop practical approaches to reduce the impacts of cyclones based on community experiences
(bottom-up approach)
! identify opportunities for actions and develop strategies to enhance adaptive capacity
! investigate the transferability of the lessons learned from the case studies to other communities.
RESEARCH STRATEGY FOR A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
The overall project will be undertaken in four consecutive stages focussing on methodological
development, case studies, comparative analysis, and adaptation strategy development (Table 1).
Three regional workshops with participation of regional stakeholders and experts will support these
activities.
Table 1. Overall research framework for comparative analysis of cyclone responses in Asia.
Stage
1:
Development
methodological framework
of
a
Stage 2: Case studies
Stage 3: Comparative analysis of
institutional responses to the cyclone
hazard
Stage 4: Development of adaptation
strategies
This stage will include a literature review and a workshop to scope project activities and to develop a
framework for performing comparative analysis of policy responses to cyclone hazards. This
framework will allow us to identify common elements in policy response and to develop methods for
evaluating and comparing key issues of community vulnerability, assessing short-term and long-term
impacts, and identifying institutional responsibility.
Assessment of institutional responsibilities:
Taking into account a range of development indicators we will collect secondary data regarding the
exposure of each region to the cyclone hazard and the impacts of severe events. Primary data are
expected to elicit a detailed picture of the policy responses and to increase our understanding of the
effects of these policies on community vulnerability. In order to investigate the effectiveness of
different hazard mitigation measures, we will undertake an analysis of the institutions and policies
relevant to reducing cyclone vulnerability in each country.
Identification of opportunities for mainstreaming adaptation policy:
At the national level, natural hazard vulnerability and response are closely linked with other issues
such as food and water security, sanitation, education, health care, and environmental degradation.
Because of this there is an apparent conflict between development policies aimed at immediate issues
and climate policy focussing on longer-term livelihood protection. Hence, the mainstreaming of
climate change policies into ongoing development activities is of great importance and the
identification of such opportunities will form an integral part of the case study activities. To achieve
this in Bangladesh we will interact with the country team responsible for developing its National
Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). NAPAs are intended to outline the adaptation priorities of
the least-developed countries, which do not include India and the Philippines. This will serve to obtain
a comprehensive overview of national-level policies and their compatibility with community-level
development concerns. More specifically, we will investigate how climate change impacts can be a
catalyst to development policy, and how an optimal mix of cyclone adaptation policy and
development policy can be established.
We will examine both short-term policy response focusing on relief and recovery and long-term
responses focusing on enhancing community disaster preparedness and building adaptive capacity in
each country. In this regard, we will identify and examine the suitability of different measures of
vulnerability, adaptation and adaptive capacity. We will also focus on the development, dissemination
and use of information that facilitates appropriate actions.
The lessons from the comparative analysis developed in Stage 3 will be used to identify and formulate
potential options for building adaptive capacity (in particular directed at awareness and preparedness)
and to suggest approaches for the implementation of short-term responses and the mainstreaming of
longer-term adaptation strategies into development policy. These activities will be supported by a
final workshop and involve significant interaction with stakeholders and policymakers in the case
study countries.
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THE PHILIPPINES COUNTRY STUDY
Research approach
Tropical cyclones (called typhoons in the Philippines) are a regular occurrence in the Philippines and
their impacts vary depending on the type of ecosystem affected (upland, lowland and
coastal/mangrove). Typhoons may have direct or indirect impacts on the biophysical, social and
economic conditions in the different ecosystems, both at the micro and macro levels. Given the interconnectedness of these different ecosystems, it will be important to view these relationships
holistically, in order to understand and address these impacts on various stakeholders in different
ecosystems. The proposed assessment framework for the Philippines is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Philippines cyclone response assessment framework.
While it is clear that typhoons have direct effects on stakeholders and ecosystems, it is important to
understand that the residual impacts on vulnerable communities may vary significantly depending on
the characteristics of the typhoon and other stressors such as globalisation and governance, as well as
different adaptive responses. Stakeholders include the locally affected communities, the government,
non-government and civil society institutions, and the research and development institutions. The
residual impact on these different stakeholders will depend on the different adaptive mechanisms or
strategies to cope with the effects of typhoons. These coping mechanisms or strategies may include
specific programmes of actions and regulatory policies required from the different institutions to
perform their regulatory functions. The performance of institutional modes of adaptation and
mechanisms are constrained by the existing resources, capabilities and quality of inter-relationships
between and among different institutions. Participating institutions have defined authorities and
responsibilities that steer the direction of the disaster response and development initiatives. They have
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their own set of boundaries, defined set of objectives, missions, resources and decision-making
processes (as in internally formulated policies) that are reflected in the functional system interrelationships. The performance of these various institutions will be assessed based on the stakeholders’
perceptions of their timeliness, relevance, awareness, accessibility and effectiveness. Given an
improved understanding of these various inter-relationships, it should be possible to reduce the
adverse impacts of typhoons in the communities through targeted development and management
interventions. These will be in the areas of policy development, restructuring of programmes and
actions, which will include integrated and innovative information, education and communication (IEC)
systems, institutional capability building and research and development programmes. The expectation
is that the identified development and management interventions would help to reduce the risks and
vulnerabilities of the affected communities in particular and society in general to the adverse impacts
of typhoons.
Bicol River Basin case study
The Bicol River Basin (Figure 2) is one of the most frequently and most severely typhoon-affected
areas in the Philippines. About two-thirds of the basin are located in the province of Camarines Sur,
which ranked fourth out of the ten most highly affected provinces between September 1998 and
February 1999. During this time period, 62,350 hectares of rice land and 3,456 hectares of corn land
had been damaged. The total number of individuals affected in the rice areas alone was 187,050. The
province also suffered losses of other important agricultural crops, livestock and fishery. The total
financial damage incurred to the agricultural sector in Camarines Sur was nearly 6 million USD.
Figure 2. The Bicol River Basin case study site, Philippines.
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Recent reports indicate that flooding in the region has increased in intensity and frequency over the
last 10 years. In 2000, the Bicol River Basin had an estimated population of 1.5 million, having grown
at 1.75% annually from 1.26 million in l990. The majority of the population is dependent on
agriculture. Livelihoods and settlements are continuously threatened by extensive flooding caused by
tropical storms and typhoons. The Bicol region has suffered under some of the most destructive
typhoons making landfall in the Philippines. On 22 July 2003 typhoon Imbudo (with local code
Harurot) passed over the Bicol region, affecting 3,441 families and creating substantial damage to
public and private properties. The Bicol River Basin exemplifies a water resource region under
pressure from multiple environmental problems related to its hydrologic, ecological, agronomic and
social conditions. In the event of continued basin degradation, adverse and expanding effects of human
activities on the floodplain and the impact of climate change, the outlook for sustainable development
appears bleak without coordinated and integrated planning and management.
Methodology
We will review related data and information that will establish the vulnerability of the Philippines in
general and the case study areas, in particular, to tropical cyclones and related hazards such as floods,
landslides, intense rainfall and high winds. The information and data will include hydrometeorological and climate data bases, socio-economic information, the occurrence of tropical
cyclones and related hazards, physical damages and economic costs of these damages to be collected
from different government / local agencies and testimonials of randomly selected population in the
affected areas. For the same tropical cyclone events, the coping mechanisms at various geographical
levels will be reviewed and documented. Special emphasis will be given to the different initiatives of
government and non-governmental organisations (NGOs), together with the policies that provide the
bases for these initiatives. Indigenous responses will be included and the effectiveness of responses in
reducing vulnerabilities will be assessed. This will include the identification of linkages, flow of
communication and dissemination of information, lessons learned and cross cutting issues (e.g.,
resource availability, or representation in relation to resource appropriation). Future tropical cyclone
and socio-economic scenarios according to existing scientific knowledge will be explored to assess
potential impacts and damages.
Case studies will be presented in order to analyse the effectiveness of government and NGO efforts in
reducing vulnerability of the community to typhoon related hazards and to identify areas for
improvement in terms of linkages, flow of information, barriers and opportunities for mainstreaming
adaptation into the developmental pathway, such as in integrated coastal zone management and
disaster management.
Implementation strategy
The Philippines country study will include the following components:
! development of close partnerships with Local Government Units (LGUs), national and local
agencies and organisations and local communities
! review and assessment of tropical cyclone events and associated physical impacts and damages;
and the potential effects as a result of climate change
! profiling and mapping of tropical cyclone risk
! review and assessment of existing policies, plans and measures concerning the management of
tropical cyclones at all levels of government and cooperating institutions, organisations and civil
society
! development of tropical cyclone hazard scenarios and socio-economic scenarios
! dissemination of information, advocacy and capacity building
! case study in the Bicol River Basin.
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NEXT STEPS
Despite the country’s high exposure to cyclones, the Philippines have not received a fraction of the
attention of, for example Honduras and Florida (Mitch in 1999 and Andrew in 1992), Orissa (1999
Supercyclone) or Bangladesh (1991 cyclone), all of which have suffered severe damages as a result of
a single event hurricane. Is this because the Philippines have already adapted to the impacts of
typhoons and are therefore less vulnerable? The present country study proposal for the Philippines will
document the experiences of the local communities in coping with and adapting to the cyclone hazard
and identify key successes and failures. Applications for external funding to a number of organisations
and funding bodies, including the EU, the Asia Pacific Network (APN), the Asian Development Bank
(ADB), and AIACC (Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions
and Sectors) are currently being developed.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The overall methodological project framework has been developed in collaboration with Anand
Patwardhan (Indian Institute of Technology, IIT); Kavi Kumar (Madras School of Economics);
Saleemul Huq (International Institute for Environment and Development, IIED); Terry Cannon
(Natural Resources Institute (NRI), University of Greenwich); Hanna Schmuck (German Red Cross)
and Rajendra Pachauri (The Energy and Resources Institute, TERI). The German Research Council
(Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG) provided financial support to undertake a series of
workshops with the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
(PAGASA), the University of the Philippines at Los Baños (UPLB) and Diliman (UP Diliman), the
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), Bangkok, the United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP), Bangkok, and the Stockholm Environment Institute Asia Office during February and March
2004.
REFERENCES
BBC,
2003, Typhoon Batters Southern Asia, BBC News Online, 24 July 2003,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3091909.stm.
Haider, R., 1992, Cyclone ’91 Revisited: A Follow-up Study, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced
Studies, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
IPCC, 2001, Science of Climate Change – Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Nicholls, R. J., Mimura, N. and Topping, J. C., 1995, ‘Climate Change in South and South-east Asia:
Some Implications for Coastal Areas’, Journal of Global Environmental Engineering, 1, 137154.
OSDMA, 2001, ‘Lessons Learnt: Orissa Floods -2001’, Proceedings of the workshop organised by
Orissa State Disaster Mitigation Authority, Gopabandhu Academy of Administration,
Bhubaneswar, in collaboration with Gopabandhu Academy of Administration (GAA) and
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).