Fixed land rent, sharecropping and Productivity of Teff in Ethiopia Getu Hailu, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada, N1G 2W1, Tel: 519-824-4120 ext 53890, Fax: 519-767-1510, e-mail: [email protected] Alfons Weersink, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada, N1G 2W1, e-mail: [email protected] Bart Minten, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia e-mail: [email protected] B. James Deaton Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada, N1G 2W1, Tel: 519-824-4120 ext 52765, Fax: 519-767-1510, e-mail: [email protected] First Draft May 14, 2015 Please do not cite or quote without permission Selected Paper Prepared for Presentation at the 13th International Conference on the Ethiopian Economy, July 22-25, 2015, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Copyright 2015 by Getu Hailu, Bart Minten, Alfons Weersink, B. James Deaton All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies 1 Fixed land rent, sharecropping and Productivity of Teff in Ethiopia Getu Hailu, Bart Minten, Alfons Weersink, B. James Deaton Abstract The paper examines the relationship between forms of tenancy and teff land productivity in five major teff growing zones in Ethiopia. Results show that sharecropped plots are no less productive than owner-operated or fixed cash rent contracts. Fixed cash rent contract is, however, more productive than own operated plots. Other drivers for productivity differences appear to be the levels of input use, the management practices employed, the age of the operator, the ease of access to markets, and the level of engagement in extension efforts. We conclude the paper by discussing the potential policy implications of our findings for land rental market and forms of tenancy. Keywords: Land productivity, Teff, Fixed Land Rent, Sharecropping 2 1. Introduction There is general consensus in the literature that secure property rights to land enhance productivity by inducing greater effort on the part of the peasants. This paper examines the effect of forms of tenancy on teff land productivity – own operated, land renting and sharecropping. The Marshallian inefficiency literature argue that sharecropping is inefficient relative to fixedrent contract1 – productivity can be increased by moving from sharecropping to fixed-rent contract. The Marshallian inefficiency hypothesis has a far reaching implication for forms of land tenure policies target at reducing food insecurity and poverty through productivity improvement. If the hypothesis holds, then, food insecurity and poverty are better under own cultivated land, leading to the need to understand the underlying causes that lead to sharecropping (e.g., lack of labour, oxen, and credit). On the other hand, if sharecropping leads to better land productivity or has no effect, one would want to focus on other productivity enhancing interventions. That said, the question is then why sharecropping, own-operated, wage, and fixed-rent contracts do co-exist despite the inefficiency of sharecropping relative to other contracts? A large body of theoretical literature provide explanation for the occurrence of sharecropping: Eswaran and Kotwal (1985), risk sharing (Newbery and Stiglitz 1979), effort contractibility (Cheung 1969), safety-first (Sadoulet, Fukui, and de Janvry), equal sharing of all costs and benefits (Braverman and Stiglitz 1982; Sharma and Drèze, 1996), and cooperation through a repeated game (Sadoulet, Fukui, and de Janvry). The empirical evidence finds somewhat mixed results. For example, and Hayami and Otsuka (1997) and Otsuka (2007) find that sharecropped 1 The Marhsallian disincentive effect- output sharing implies a disincentive to provide the inputs which are not shared due to moral hazard in tenant effort. 3 lands have lower productivity that own-operated land. Recognizing a diverse nature of forms of sharecropping, a number of recent studies find that sharecropped lands are as efficient as ownoperated or fixed-rent lands (e.g., Sadoulet et al. 1997; Pender and Fafchaps 2006; Kassie and Holden, 2007; Jacoby and Mansuri 2009). In this paper we examine the effect of contract choice on land productivity and production efficiency. We use data on plots of teff from a survey of 1,200 stratified randomly selected households across five major teff growing zones in Ethiopia. We find that there is no significant differences between plots operated under sharecropping and other contracts. 2. Data and Empirical methods 2.1. Data The data for the study come from 1,200 stratified randomly selected households survey conducted by the Economic Development Research Institute (EDRI) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The main purpose of the survey was to understand the teff value chains to make recommendations to policymakers to improve the performance of value chain for farmers, wholesalers, retailers, and consumers. The survey was conducted in 2012 in sixty villages (Kebele) in twenty districts (Woreda) in five major teff producing zones (regions) of Ethiopia (East Gojjam, West Gojjam, East Shewa, West Shewa, and South West Shewa). The five zones represent 38% of national teff area and 42% of the commercial surplus (CSA 2012). The average (and the coefficient of variation of) altitude in meters of the five zones are 2323 (10%) for East Gojjam, 2200 (5%) for West Gojjam, 1784 (24%) for East Shewa, 2099 (13%) for West Shewa and 2188 (5%) for South West Shewa. 4 To ensure that data would be representative of teff areas cultivated in these five zones, the following procedure was followed. First, within each production zone, the woredas were ranked from smallest to largest producer in terms of area cultivated. These woredas were divided in two; the less productive (cultivating all together 50 percent of the area) and the more productive woredas (cultivating all together 50 percent of the area). Two woredas were randomly selected from each group. Second, a list of all the kebeles of the selected woredas was then obtained. Two kebeles were randomly chosen from the top 50 percent producing kebeles and one from the low 50 percent producing kebeles. Third, a list of all teff producers in the selected kebeles was then made. These were ranked from small to large teff producers (based on areas cultivated). The farmers were then divided in two groups, the small production (cultivating all together 50 percent of the area) and the large production farmers (cultivating all together 50 percent of the area). A total of 20 farmers were then selected: 10 from the small production and 10 from the large production farmers. In total, 240 farmers were interviewed per zone resulting in 1,200 total respondents (240 households/zone * 5 zones). The detailed cross-sectional data contains household and plot level information on teff production. The number of teff plots per household range from 1 to 6 in the dataset with an average of 1.2. In addition to teff production on each plot, the data includes information on six sets of variables: (1) inputs (e.g., amount of seed, labor use, number of oxen, dap and urea fertilizer applied, and amount of herbicide applied); (2) household characteristics (e.g., age, gender, and the level of education of the household head, and distance from the nearest marketplace); (3) plot characteristics (e.g., plot size, soil color, slope); (4) technological practices (e.g., seed variety and color, crop rotation, mobile phone ownership); (5) extension activities (e.g., co-operative membership, the numbers of community meetings attended, the number of 5 extension agent visits, and being a model farmer ); and (6) weather shocks (e.g., rainfall (timing and extent), frost). 2.2. Empirical Methods We use a simple competitive market tenant’s profit maximization model to motivate our study. We assume that the share of the tenant and the fixed rental rate are exogenously determined, where the tenant pays and choses the use of variables inputs. The profit maximization problem is given by: max, , 1 , ; ̅ 1 (1) where s is the landlord’s share of output, r is the landlord’s share of variable costs other than labour, is the wage rate, l is labour input, , ; ̅ production function, variable inputs, x is other variable inputs, R is the fixed-rent, and input price for ̅ is fixed land input. The first order condition for the profit maximization problem is: 1 1 (2) The above results suggest that the marginal product of labour is higher under sharecropping contract, meaning the optimum labour effort is lower that what would be under the own-operated or fixed-rent contract. In this study will test this hypothesis using plot level data for teff. The main objective of the study is to test the Marshallian inefficiency hypothesis. To examine effect of contract choice on production efficiency we estimate the following CobbDouglas production function: ln 6 ∑ ln (3) where is output at for plot p for the h-th household in the k-th kebele in the w-th woreda in z-th zone, is the vector of inputs in the production function, coefficients associated with the inputs, , , , is the vector of are cluster specific random components, represents the normally distributed random error. To estimate we use a linear multilevel model (LMM). The LMM model handle data where plots’ productivity are not independent, and allows to model correlated errors when for example predicted plot productivity and errors in predicting them may be clustered by household, kebele, woreda, and zone. The linear mixed model mixed model handles random effects at different level of clustering. Clustering of plots within groups may lead to correlated error term, biased estimates of parameters, standard errors, and possible substantive errors when interpreting the importance of salient covariates. Many statistical analyses require the data to be statistically independent. OLS regression assumes error terms are independent and have equal error variances, whereas when observations are nested by groups, individual-level observations from the same upper-level group will not be independent but rather will be more similar. In our case, the productivity of different plots owned by the same farmers are likely to be more similar to each other than to productivity of plots owned by another farmer - some farmers will have more people in the household, more oxen, more capital, and these characteristics are likely to persist from one plot to the other. For these farmers, even after allowing for different household types and other explanatory variables, their productivity will generally tend to be larger than the average productivity and somewhat similar from one plot to the other, whereas if productivity indices were independent, we might expect them to be above average or below average with equal probability. If we perform a statistical analysis ignoring this correlation between productivity different plots owned by the same farmers, our results can be misleading. 7 3. Main Results and Discussions Table 1 presents size of land owned by households by contract types and zones. Sharecropping is most common in Gojjam than in Showa regions, but cash rent is more common in Shewa regions. In addition, sharecroppers and renters tend to have smaller land than own operators. Table 1: Average land size owned by households by contract type and zone (in hectare, average) zone a East West East West South West Total Contracts Gojjam Gojjam Shewa Shewa Shewa 1.25 1.23 2.73 2.52 3.36 2.30 Own cultivator (109) (151) (152) (176) (164) (752) (autarky) 0.98 0.91 2.33 1.71 1.95 1.17 Sharecropper (113) (73) (3) (45) (18) (252) 1.12 0.86 1.61 1.52 2.02 1.62 Cash Renter (15) (16) (84) (19) (57) (191) 1.58 0.75 0.50 1.20 Borrowed free (3) (0) (1) (0) (1) (5) 1.12 1.11 2.33 2.29 2.92 1.95 Overall (240) (240) (240) (240) (240) (1200 ) Note: Figures in the parentheses are the number of households. N=1200 households. a: contract refers to land market participation status Table 2: Average size of plots (in ha) operated under different contractual arrangements and zones (n=1200) Zone East West East West South Total Contracts Gojjam Gojjam Shewa Shewa West Shewa 0.30 0.27 0.62 0.54 0.62 0.49 Own 0.32 0.30 1.58 0.50 0.48 0.38 Sharecropping 0.41 0.24 0.71 0.37 0.53 0.58 Rent 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Borrow 0.31 0.27 0.65 0.52 0.60 0.48 Overall 8 Table 3 presents average plot level productivity by contract type and zones. Average Teff plot productivity varies by zones and contract types. Table 3. Average teff plot productivity in kilograms per hectare by zone and type of contracts zone East West Gojjam East West South West Total Contract Gojjam Shewa Shewa Shewa 1506 1072 1233 883 779 1073 Own 1427 1102 841 933 910 1211 Share 1854 1242 1324 931 884 1176 Rent 1400 800 300 1117 Borrow 1494 1086 1254 893 802 1106 Total Table 3. Average teff plot yield, and inputs per hectare by contract type Contracts yield labour seed urea dap herb oxen Quncho improved 1073 142 46 77 100 46 3 0.18 0.11 Own 1211 158 39 86 97 36 2 0.20 0.07 Share 1176 115 48 72 105 42 4 0.24 0.12 Rent 130 30 85 151 11 2 0.00 0.00 Borrow 1117 1106 141 45 78 100 44 3 0.19 0.11 Total Note: Yield is teff output per hectare in kilograms per hectare, labour in man-equivalent per hectare, seed in kilograms per hectare, urea in kilograms per hectare, DAP fertilizer in dollars per hectare, oxen in Quncho and improved are proportion of high-yielding varieties. Table 4 presents parameter estimates for a multilevel mixed linear and household fixed effect regression Cobb-Douglas production functions. The estimates of our preferred model - a multilevel mixed linear regression - show that the coefficients on owner operated and “the fixed cash rental” are statistically insignificant, meaning that the productivity of owner operated plots or rented plots are no better than sharecropped plots. This result does not support the Marshallian sharecropping inefficiency theory, which states that production is less efficient under sharecropping contract. The Marshallian sharecropping inefficiency theory states that the 9 optimum labour effort is lower than what would be under the own-operated or fixed-rent contract. One interesting finding of the study is that when the reference group is changed to “own operated land”, plots operated with rented land are more productive than own operated plots and this relationship is statistically significant, meaning that teff yield on cash rented plot is higher than that of own operated plots by approximately 4.1 percentage point. Still there is no significant differences between sharecropped plots and owner-operated plots. The fixed effect model that controls for unobservable household differences also show that there is no statistically significant difference between sharecropped plots and cash rented plots, and sharecropped plots and own operated pots. Contrary to the mixed linear model results, we find that there is no statistically significant differences between own-operated plots and cash rented plot. Our results support results of a number of recent studies that find sharecropped lands are as efficient as own-operated or fixed-rent lands (e.g., Sadoulet et al. 1997; Pender and Fafchaps 2006; Kassie and Holden, 2007; Jacoby and Mansuri, 2009). Other studies, however, find that sharecropped lands are less productive than own-operated land (e.g., Hayami and Otsuka 1997; Otsuka 2007; Ahmed et al 2002) while other find the opposite (Holden et al 2001). Pender and Fafchaps (2006), for example, find that there is significant no difference in productivity between tenants owned plots and sharecropped plots in the Arsi zone of the Oromia region of Ethiopia, whereas Ahmed et al (2002) find that owner-operated plots outperformed sharecropped plots. Holden et al (2001) find that barley land productivity was higher on sharecropped plots than on owner-operated plots. The LR test indicates that zone, woreda, kebele and household random effects are statistically significant, which justifies the application of multi-level mixed linear model. For 10 example, we find intra-class correlations of 0.13 at the zone level and 0.66 at the household level. These numbers represent the correlation in productivity between two plots in the same zone, and between two plots for the same household (in the same zone, woreda, and kebele). We can also conclude that 13% of the variation in plot productivity can be attributed to the heterogeneity across zones and 66% to the heterogeneity across households (which includes the zone, woreda, and kebele). Table 4: The Relationship between forms of tenure and Teff Plot Productivity2 Variables Multi-level Mixed Linear Regression Variables Coeff Standard Coeff Standard Coeff Errors Errors Own operate -0.0150 (0.02) -0.00273 Sharecropped 0.015 (0.019) Fixed rental 0.0250 (0.02) 0.040*** (0.012) -0.00468 Borrowed -0.0715 (0.06) -0.057 (0.050) 0.0111 Log Plot Size -0.411*** (0.05) -0.448*** Log of Seed 0.182*** (0.009) 0.203*** Log of Labor 0.172** (0.07) 0.244*** Log of DAP 0.00651 (0.004) 0.00107 Fertilizer Log of UREA 0.00860*** (0.002) 0.000964 Fertilizer Log of 0.00680*** (0.002) 0.0101** Herbicide Quncho 0.110*** (0.03) 0.0921* Other 0.0598*** (0.02) -0.0179 improved White seed -0.0371 (0.02) -0.0466 Mix seed -0.0664 (0.05) -0.0357 Red seed -0.0819*** (0.01) -0.0808 Brown soil 0.0112 (0.04) -0.0294 Black soil 0.0565 (0.04) 0.0331 Mix soil 0.0424* (0.02) 0.0125 Terrain with -0.0467*** (0.02) -0.0658 hills Steep slope 0.0314 (0.04) 0.0551 Crop rotation 0.0319 (0.02) 0.0276 Easy to plough 0.0605*** (0.02) 0.0359 Frequency of 0.0370*** (0.010) 0.0329 ploughing Manure 0.0223* (0.01) -0.0318 applied Household fixed effect model Standard Coeff Standard Errors Errors (0.03) 0.00273 (0.03) (0.05) -0.00195 (0.03) (0.1) 0.0138 (0.1) (0.07) -0.448*** (0.07) (0.06) 0.203*** (0.06) (0.05) 0.244*** (0.05) (0.008) 0.00107 (0.008) (0.008) 0.000964 (0.008) (0.004) 0.0101** (0.004) (0.05) (0.06) 0.0921* -0.0179 (0.05) (0.06) (0.05) (0.07) (0.06) (0.05) (0.04) (0.05) (0.05) -0.0466 -0.0357 -0.0808 -0.0294 0.0331 0.0125 -0.0658 (0.05) (0.07) (0.06) (0.05) (0.04) (0.05) (0.05) (0.1) (0.04) (0.04) (0.03) 0.0551 0.0276 0.0359 0.0329 (0.1) (0.04) (0.04) (0.03) (0.06) -0.0318 (0.06) 2 Note that we cannot completely rule out the possible endogeneity of the contract choice in the equation for teff productivity. Though it is not addressed in the presented study, the instrumental variable approach as in Pender and Fafchaps (2005), where the predicted probability of each contract type is used as instrument. 11 Distance from homestead Low rain High rain Less logging More logging Less frost More frost Late rain Early rain Early planting Late planting Somewhat fertile soil Infertile soil -0.000251 (0.0003) 0.0000470 (0.0007) 0.0000470 (0.0007) -0.0134 0.00860 0.0912*** -0.0211 -0.0655 -0.191*** -0.0567* -0.0167 -0.0338 -0.00147 -0.0406** (0.02) (0.06) (0.03) (0.02) (0.04) (0.03) (0.03) (0.06) (0.05) (0.04) (0.02) 0.0350 -0.0332 0.138 -0.0410 -0.0473 -0.141 -0.350* -0.0638 -0.0229 -0.0257 0.00196 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.05) (0.1) (0.09) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.09) (0.02) 0.0350 -0.0332 0.138 -0.0410 -0.0473 -0.141 -0.350* -0.0638 -0.0229 -0.0257 0.00196 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.05) (0.1) (0.09) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.09) (0.02) -0.0317 (0.04) 0.0469 6.825*** (0.04) (0.2) 0.0469 6.822*** (0.04) (0.2) Estimated variance components zone 0.190*** (0.078) 0.201*** (0.038) woreda 0.142*** (0.017) kebele 0.288*** (0.011) household 0.300*** (0.016) e Adj. R2 0.722 0.722 Observations 2747 2747 Note: The dependent variable is yield per hectare. Robust standard errors in parentheses, * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. A zone random effect allows correlation in the error term across woreda, kebele, and households for a given zone, with inter-class correlation of . A woreda random effect allows correlation in the error across zone, kebele and households for a given woreda. A kebele random effect allows correlation in the error term across zone, woreda, and household for a given kebele. A household random effect allows correlation in the error term across zone, woreda and kebele for a given household. The findings in Table 6 provides a mixed results regarding the effect of form of tenancy on input usage. For the mixed linear model, there are statistically significant differences in labour and seed input usage between own operated and sharecropped plots, which provides evidence to support the Marshallian inefficiency hypothesis. The household fixed effect models, however, show no statistically significant differences in input use between sharecropped and own-operated plots. The household fixed effect results are consistent with previous studies that find no differences in input use between importers’ sharecropped and owner-operated plots (Pender and Fafchamps 2005). 12 Table 5: The Relationship between forms of tenure and labour and seed usage3 Mixed Linear Model Household Fixed Effect Log(labou/ha) Log(seed_ha) Log(labou/ha) Log(seed_ha) Sharecropped -0.0567*** (-2.79) -0.0203*** (-2.70) -0.0531 (-1.39) -0.0260 (-0.90) Fixed rental -0.0432 (-1.57) -0.0180 (-0.99) -0.0262 (-0.71) -0.0276 (-0.92) Borrowed 0.157* (1.88) -0.175*** (-10.42) 0.170 (0.91) -0.181** (-2.05) Quncho -0.00940 (-0.27) -0.0851 (-1.45) 0.00263 (0.06) -0.0574 (-1.33) Other improved -0.0231 (-0.42) 0.0452** (2.52) 0.0540 (0.57) 0.0508 (1.28) White seed 0.00542 (0.22) 0.0210 (0.70) 0.0253 (0.66) 0.0369 (0.91) Mix seed -0.0480 (-0.90) -0.0133 (-0.44) 0.0245 (0.41) -0.00861 (-0.16) Red seed 0.0123 (1.28) 0.0629 (1.60) 0.0374 (0.83) 0.0694 (1.47) Brown soil 0.0257 (0.71) -0.000725 (-0.02) -0.0284 (-0.51) 0.00873 (0.20) Black soil -0.0117 (-0.45) -0.00953 (-0.35) -0.0364 (-0.73) -0.00660 (-0.19) Mix soil -0.00293 (-0.10) 0.00953 (0.33) 0.0246 (0.43) 0.0163 (0.40) Terrain with hills -0.0141 (-0.58) 0.0152 (0.41) -0.0636 (-1.22) -0.00872 (-0.24) Steep slope -0.0214 (-0.30) 0.0615** (1.96) -0.0865 (-0.97) 0.0330 (0.50) Crop rotation 0.0500** (2.41) 0.0331*** (3.60) 0.0275 (0.70) 0.0147 (0.45) Easy to plough 0.0284 (0.80) 0.00666 (0.65) 0.0423 (0.92) 0.0117 (0.35) Frequency of ploughing 0.0186* (1.65) 0.00843 (1.16) -0.0178 (-0.57) -0.00781 (-0.39) Manure applied 0.208*** (3.08) 0.0612 (1.60) 0.182* (1.80) 0.0106 (0.28) Distance from homestead 0.000439 (1.03) -0.000126 (-0.38) 0.000481 (0.74) -0.000190 (-0.41) Low rain -0.0142 (-0.28) 0.00777 (0.26) 0.0169 (0.13) 0.0219 (0.22) High rain 0.0284 (0.35) 0.0300 (0.46) 0.224 (1.24) 0.0541 (0.84) Less logging 0.0138 (0.14) -0.0132 (-0.52) -0.0348 (-0.30) 0.0305 (0.34) More logging 0.0160 (0.61) -0.0342 (-1.18) -0.0217 (-0.45) -0.0205 (-0.41) Less frost 0.000799 (0.01) 0.00340 (0.10) -0.0811 (-0.78) -0.00530 (-0.07) More frost -0.0749*** (-3.24) -0.0209 (-0.49) -0.132* (-1.81) -0.00184 (-0.03) Late rain -0.0475** (-2.15) 0.000847 (0.03) -0.271 (-0.89) -0.163 (-1.47) Early rain 0.0655 (1.02) 0.0394 (1.10) -0.606 (-1.47) -0.173** (-2.38) Early planting 0.135 (1.51) -0.0458 (-1.03) 0.0298 (0.30) -0.0939 (-1.22) Late planting -0.0259 (-0.40) -0.00995 (-0.29) 0.0263 (0.23) 0.00625 (0.07) Somewhat fertile soil 0.00987 (0.60) 0.00506 (0.39) -0.00133 (-0.05) 0.00586 (0.31) Infertile soil 0.0481 (1.59) -0.00147 (-0.11) 0.0309 (0.82) -0.00192 (-0.07) Constant 4.596*** (30.02) 3.633*** (27.03) 4.850*** (27.23) 3.727*** (33.17) zone 0.221 (0.047) 0.196 (0.057) 0.132 (0.020) 0.181 (0.036) woreda kebele 0.059 (0.043) 0.151 (0.044) 0.394 (0.039) 0.323 (0.027) household e 0.324 (0.029) 0.236 (0.019) Observations 2773 2775 2773 2775 t statistics in parentheses * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. Robust standard errors in parentheses. 3 Note that we cannot completely rule out the possible endogeneity of the contract choice in the equation for teff productivity. Though it is not addressed in the presented study, the instrumental variable approach as in Pender and Fafchaps (2005), where the predicted probability of each contract type may be used as instrument. 13 4. Concluding Remarks The paper examines the relationship between sharecropping and plot productivity using unique plot level data in five major teff growing zones of Ethiopia, where sharecropping and fixed cash rent arrangements are common. We find that no systematic differences in teff productivity between sharecropped and owned land between sharecropping and fixed rental after controlling for other factors. Meanwhile, fixed cash rented plots are more productive than own operated plots. 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