Trade and Investment Opportunities in Moldova June 2015 Project number: 06-02-02-15 Fahd Shah Dr Eisa Abdelgalil Source: National Geographic Society, accessed via http://travel.nationalgeographic.com/travel/countries/moldova-guide/ Economic Research Department Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry Page 0 Overview Moldova Key Statistics (2015) Population (million) Moldova is small landlocked country located in the eastern Europe. It is a member of the Commonwealth of independent States (CIS) and is bordered by Ukraine and Romania. The capital of the country is Chisinau. The country’s official language is Moldovan which is similar to Romanian. According to data from the Moldovan National Bureau of Statistics, the country had a population of around 3.56 million people in 2015. According to data from the World Bank Group, it also had a high adult literacy rate of around 99% by 2012. Area (square kilometers) 3.56 33, 846 Languages Moldovan, Russian and Gaguaz Capital City Chisinau 32 Number of Regions Moldovan LEU Currency Total GDP (USD billions) 6.14 1,726 Per Capita GDP Real GDP growth (%) -1% Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2015 and Moldovan Investment and Export Promotion Organization The Republic of Moldova has a parliamentary system and its area covers about 33,846 square kilometers. Moldova has a strategic position in between the CIS and EU regions. Administrative map of Moldova To strengthen trade relations, Moldova has signed an agreement with the EU to for a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). It has also signed a free trade agreement with Turkey, which was expected to come into effect in 2015. Source: www.unesco.org , Moldova Country Report, Moldova Ministry of Education and Science Page 1 Moldova’s GDP structure Moldovan GDP by sector (2015) According to data from the IMF, Moldova had a GDP of around Billion USD in 2015. The services sector had the largest share at around 64% of GDP, followed by industry at around 20% in 2015. Agriculture also has a relatively significant share of around 16% in Moldova's GDP in 2015. This reflects the importance of Moldova's agricultural sector which has grown overtime due to the presence of fertile land and a favorable climate. Private consumption makes up by far the largest portion of GDP by expenditure, around 93% of GDP by expenditure in 2015. Government consumption makes up about 15% of GDP while investments make up around 22%. Because imports exceed exports, net exports subtract 32% from GDP. The consumer oriented nature of the Moldovan economy is one reason for the large share of private consumption and for imports being much larger than exports. According to data from the IMF, income from remittances makes up about 24% of Moldova’s GDP. As people have migrated from Moldova, remittances sent back home to other family members have fueled consumption. Agriculture [PERCENTA GE] Services 64% Industry 20% Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and World Bank, World Development Indicators. Data for 2015 is based on EIU forecasts. Moldovan GDP by Expenditure (2015) Expenditure type % of GDP Private consumption 93 Government consumption 15 Investments 22 Net exports (Exports – Imports) -32 Rebasing residual 2 Source: Dubai Chamber based on Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Page 2 Economic Performance Moldova GDP growth and budget deficit 10 8 Percentage change Moldova's economic growth has seen large fluctuations due in part to regional and global economic challenges. For example according to the IMF, in 2012, the economy contracted due to drought from which it later recovered. Future output is expected to be impacted by slowdown in demand from major trading partners including among the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Real GDP growth 6 4 2 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f -2 Budget deficit -4 Moldova’s budget deficit which saw a reduction over the last few years is expected to see become larger. The increase in the deficit is expected partly due in part to weaker economic growth coupled with a need for the government to increase pensions to support Moldova's aging population. -6 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015. Moldova inflation rate Inflation in Moldova is expected to remain between 4% to 8% from 2015 to 2018. Overall, Moldova’s economy is highly dependent on remittances from Moldovans’s working in foreign countries and in demand form its major trading partners the European Union and the CIS countries. Percentage change 10 8 6 4 2 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015. Page 3 Moldova population Moldova’s Population (millions of people) 5 While the trend of net migration has decreased from 2000 to 2015 and is expected to fall further, it is still expected to have a continued negative impact on the growth of population. 4 3 2 1 2050 2045 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 0 2000 The population of Moldova is expected to fall overtime, partly due to the impact of migration. Moldovan people have historically preferred to move to other countries. The Moldovan population is therefore expected to decreases from around 3.44 million people in 2015 to around 2.484 million by 2050. Aging across Europe combined with migration of working age people also means that the average age of the Moldovan population is expected to increase from 27.7 years in 1980 to around 45.8 years of age by 2050. Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm Moldovan net migration rate (%) 0 However, even if the number of people in Moldova falls overtime, there are still opportunities in agricultural production and in consumer sector. Also an aging population needs better access to health care and medicines. These opportunities will be explored later in this report. -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 -18 Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from United Nations, Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm Page 4 Foreign Trade: Flows Goods trade flow with the world 3 1 Billion USD A growing economy has meant that demand for imports of goods by Moldova has seen strong increase. Imports by Moldova from the world market grew at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of around 14% from 2009 to 2014. Exports 2009 -1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -3 Trade Balance Moldova's service exports performed well and grew at a CAGR of around 11.41% from 2009 to 2014. According to data from trademap.org, Moldova’s major services exports in 2014 included commercial services followed by transport, travel and telecommunication, computer and information services. Overall service export and import trade was balanced and the trade balanced was slightly positive in 2014. Imports -7 Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from trademap.org, International Trade Centre. Services trade flows and trade balance with the world 2 Exports Billion USD Exports of goods to the world market in turn grew at a CAGR of around 16.36% during this period. Given the large amount of imports over exports, Moldova had a negative trade balance during the period. The trade deficit grew from around USD 2 billion in 2009 to around USD 4 billion in 2014. -5 1 Trade Balance 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -1 -2 Imports Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from trademap.org, International Trade Centre Page 5 Foreign Trade: Composition Moldova major imports from the world market (2014) Commodities not elsewhere specified Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc Machinery, boilers, etc 17% Moldova's major imports from the world market in 2014 consisted of mineral fuels, machinery, electrical equipment, cars, tractors (for agricultural use), plastics and pharmaceuticals. Most of the country’s imports therefore consisted of finished products. Electrical, electronic equipment Vehicles other than railway, tramway 38% Plastics and articles thereof 14% Pharmaceutical products Aircraft and parts thereof Iron and steel Moldova's competitive advantage in exports consists of exporting agricultural products and also basic goods. Many of Moldova's exports consisted of agricultural and food related products. 7% Tobacco and manufactured substitutes Other 6% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% Source: Dubai Chamber based on trademap.org and International Trade Centre. The largest category was Electrical and electronic equipment which made up about 11% of exports, followed by oil seed, grains and fruits at 9%, cereals with a share in exports of about 8% and edible fruits and nuts with a share of around 8% exports to the world market in 2014. Moldova major exports to the world market (2014) Electrical, electronic equipment 11% Oil seed, oleagic fruits, grain, seed, fruit, etc, nes Cereals 30% 9% Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons Iron and steel Other major exports products in 2014 consisted of iron and steel, apparel and footwear related products. 8% Articles of apparel, accessories, not knit or crochet Beverages and vinegar 4% 8% 4% 8% 6% 5% 7% Articles of apparel, accessories, knit or crochet Furniture, lighting, signs, prefabricated building Footwear, gaiters and the like, parts thereof Other Source: Dubai Chamber based on trademap.org, International Trade Centre Page 6 Foreign Trade: Major partners Moldova’s major export markets (2014) 30% Moldova's major import and export partners are located in the region around it either in Europe or former CIS countries. Its major export market is Russia which takes almost one fourth of goods exports. Other important export markets in 2014 included Romania, Ukraine, Germany and Poland. 25% 23.3% 20% 17.4% 15% 11.7% 10% 6.8% 5.2% 5% Moldova's major sources of imports are also little more spread out geographically and where the top markets have lower share in total imports, as compared to top export markets. Therefore Romania is the top import source for Moldova, followed by Italy ad then the Russian Federation and then Turkey. 4.6% 4.5% 4.2% 1.9% 1.9% 0% Source: Dubai Chamber based on trademap.org and International Trade Centre. Moldova’s major import sources (2014) Moldova remains highly reliant on its top export markets as the top 3 export markets Russian Federation, Romania and Ukraine demanded around 52% of total exports. There is therefore a need a to diversify in other export markets. On the import side, the top import source markets are more diversified with the top 3 import source markets making up about 42% of imports in 2014. 20% 18.3% 16% 12.7% 12% 11.4% 9.1% 8% 4% 6.1% 5.5% 4.9% 2.9% 2.3% 2.2% 0% Source: Dubai Chamber based on trademap.org, International Trade Centre Page 7 Trade with Dubai: Flow and composition Dubai’s trade with Moldova (million AED) 20 Exports 0 2005 AED Million Moldova’s trade with Dubai has seen fluctuations but has generally shown robust. Dubai's total exports to Moldova grew from around 9.66 million AED in 2005 to around USD 15.76 million by 2014. Exports therefore grew at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of around 5.6% from 2005 to 2014. 10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -10 -20 Imports -30 -40 Imports grew at a faster rate of around 15.9% during this period. Imports from Moldova made up the majority of trade, with imports valued at around AED 34.35 million in 2014, while exports to Moldova were valued at around AED 15.76 million in 2014. -50 -60 Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from Dubai Customs Dubai’s major exports to Moldova (2014) Dubai's major exports in 2014 consisted of finished goods such as electrical machinery, appliances, vehicles, and coffee and tea. 1% 1% [PERCENTAG E] 2% 2% Boilers, machinery and mehcanical appliances Vehicles other than railway and tramway 5% Dubai’s major imports from Moldova in 2014 consisted of mostly clothing and footwear articles. The largest share is for articles of apparel knitted and not knitted HS chapters 61 and 62. Together these items of apparel alone made up around 74% share of Dubai's imports from Moldova in 2014. Other import products included articles of leather and footwear. Electrical machinery and equipment Coffee, tea and spices [PERCENTAG E] [PERCENTAG E] Tobacco and substitutes Paper and Paperboard Musical instruments and parts Plastics and articles 13% 27% Essential oils and perfumes Other products Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from Dubai Customs Page 8 Selected Free trade agreements of Republic of Moldova Moldova is a party to many free trade agreements. The two major trade agreements are with Moldova's major trading partners in the CIS region and the EU. Moldova also has trade agreements with countries in eastern Europe such as Bosnia Herzegovina and Albania. Moldova also has recently signed a free trade agreement with Turkey which is expected to increase trade between the two countries. Moldova’s membership and Free Trade Agreements (FTA) World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement with EU , Deep and Comprehensive Free trade Area (DCFTA) Commonwealth of Independent States FTA Moldova and Turkey FTA Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) incudes (Moldova, Serbia, Montegeru, Bosnia Herzegovina, Kosovo and Albania). The Republic of Moldova is also a member of the World Trade Organization. The high number of free trade agreement highlights Moldova’s openness to new trade partners and its desire to create a business friendly environment. Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from the Moldova Investment and Export Promotion Organization, CEFTA Secretariat (http://www.cefta.int/ ), European Commission and the WTO Page 9 Potential products for increased exports from UAE to Moldova Product code and description Imports by Moldova world market (USD million), 2014 Annual growth of imports from world market 2010 to 2014, % Growth of UAE’s export to the world, 2010 to 2014 % Analysis of opportunity HS 27, Mineral fuels 919 16 12 Moldova needs to import its oil and this forms its biggest import from the world market. UAE oil companies can therefore export refined oil products via ship and then land through nearby countries to gain access to the Moldovan market. This import market has seen strong growth of around 16% per annum from 2010 to 2014 making it an important growth market. HS 84, Machinery and boilers 428 7 15 Machinery and boilers make up another large import category. Important sub-categories include machinery for agricultural use such as HS 8432 Agricultural, forest machinery for soil prep/cultivation and HS 8433 Harvesting/threshing machinery. High quality used machinery can also be sourced from major agricultural producing countries for potential export to Moldova. HS 85, Electrical and electronic equipment 356 3 10 Moldova imported about 356 million USD of Electrical and electronic equipment in 2014. Imports in this category grew at an annual rate of about 3 % from 2010 to 2014 and UAE’s exports to the world market grew at an annual rate of about 10% from 2010 to 2014. Some major producers of electrical products are in Asia creating opportunities for intermediation for Dubai businesses. HS 8703 , Cars 156 5 20 Moldova imported about USD 325 million worth of cars in 2014. Imports in the category grew at an annual rate of around 5% from 2010 to 2014. UAE exporters also increased their exports to the world market in this product by 20% in this product category, indicating their competitive strength. Source: Dubai Chamber based on trademap.org, International Trade Centre Page 10 Potential products for increased exports from UAE to Moldova Product code and description Imports by Moldova world market (USD million), 2014 Annual growth of imports from world market 2010 to 2014, % Growth of UAE’s export to the world, 2010 to 2014, % Analysis of opportunity HS 8701, Tractors 47 6 13 Moldova imported about USD 47 million worth of tractors for use in agricultural production. Imports under this product category grew at an annual rate of 6% from 2010 to 2014 while UAE’s exports to the world of this product also grew at a rate of 13%. Further research of this market could mean opportunities for UAE businesses to increase their exports to Moldova in this product category. HS 39, Plastics and articles 236 9 18 Moldova imported about USD 236 worth of plastics and articles in 2014. Imports of this product category grew at an annual rate of around 9% form 2010 to 2014, while UAE exporters grew their exports to the world market in this product category by a robust 18% from 2010 to 2014. This product category could therefore also be a potential market for increased UAE exports and re-exports to Moldova. HS 30, Pharmaceutical products 192 10 24 With an aging population demand for pharmaceuticals is growing in Moldova. In 2014 the country imported about USD 912 worth of products under this category and from 2010 to 2014 the imports grew at an annual rate of 10%. UAE exporters also increase their exports in this category by 24% from 2010 to 2014 indicating their competitive strength. HS 73, Articles of iron and steel, 121 6 10 Articles of iron and steel is another product category with import potential for Moldova. In 20114 Moldova imported about USD 121 million worth of products under this category. The import market grew at an annual growth rate of about 6% between 2010 to 2014 while UAE’s exporters also grew their exports at an annual rate of around 10% from 2010 to 2014. Articles of iron and steel could therefore be another possible product for increased exports from UAE to Moldova. Source: Dubai Chamber based on trademap.org, International Trade Centre Page 11 Establishing a business in Moldova Document required for business registration 1) According to PWC, Moldova allows for the creation of the following for profit entities: Limited Liability Company (LLC), Joint Stock Company (JSC), General Partnerships, Limited Partnership and Cooperatives. 2) For most foreign investors, the ideal company form would be either an LLC and or a JSC. Limited liability structures and the ease of meeting regulations in some sectors are reason for this preference. It is also more convenient to use an LLC structure for 100% investment in the company. 5) A series of steps that investors would normally have to take to set-up a business is provided below, while a list of documents required is provided on the right. 7) 3) 4) 6) Copy of the parent company's registration certificate authenticated by a notary. An extract from the national commercial register authenticated by a notary. Copies of certificate of incorporation by a foreign company. Certificate of foreign company's solvency issued by a bank. Decision by foreign company to establish a company through foreign investment in Moldova (for example through shareholder meeting). If the services of an attorney are used in Moldova for registration purposes, a letter authorizing the attorney to set-up business in Moldova is required. Provision of a legal address is also required. Source: Foreign Investment Guide 2007, Moldovan Investment and Export Promotion Organization (MIEPO). Steps in registering a company in Moldova File documents and get ID number from Chamber of Registration Open temporary Bank Account, deposit at least 40% of company paid up capital and pay registration fees. Obtain a registration certificate and Constitutive Act. Obtain official stamp from Ministry of Information Development. Source: Molodova Foreign Investment Guide 2007, Moldovan Investment and Export Promotion Organization (MIEPO) Page 12 Taxes Major taxes and payments payable by businesses Type of tax Rates of taxation Corporate Income Tax Rate of taxation varies between 7% and 18% for Individual Entrepreneurs depending on income. Rate of tax is 7% for farming enterprises, 3% for legal entities that are small and medium enterprises. General Corporate income tax is 12% for other legal entities. This 12% tax can be halved to about 6% for entities within the Free Economic Zones (FEZ). Value Added Tax 20% Standard VAT, 8% VAT on certain supplies such as bread, bakery products, milk, some pharmaceuticals and sugars etc. VAT on other supplies such as those involving of goods, supplies to and from the territory of free economic zones (FEZs), import and supply of goods destined for technical assistance projects under specific conditions Capital gains tax Taxable gains are calculated as 50% of total capital gains from sale of assets and are to be included as part of gross income to be taxed at normal tax rates. Social Security Contribution The employer is required to make social security contribution of about 23% of salary while the employee makes a contribution to about 6%. Health insurance contribution Around 4% of salaries and health insurance contribution is paid by both employer and employee. Source: Doing Business 2015, doingbusiness.org, World Bank Group and Price WaterHouse Coopers and MIEPO, Investing Guide Moldova 2014. Page 13 Free Economic Zones and Industrial Parks The government of Moldova has created several Free Economic Zones (FEZ) and Industrial parks to encourage investment in the country. FEZ incentives include the following: Entities which are located in the FEZ’s of Moldova and which are involved in export of goods outside the customs territory of Moldova or delivery of produced goods to other FEZ residents can apply 50% of the applicable CIT rate on their income. Income obtained by a FEZ company on export of goods outside the customs territory of Moldova or for supply of goods to other FEZ resident for export to outside Moldova is exempted from CIT for three years provided the enterprises invested a capital equivalent of about USD 1 million in fixed assets or infrastructure. Income obtained by a FEZ company on export of goods outside the customs territory of Moldova or for supply of goods to other FEZ resident for export to outside Moldova is exempted from CIT for five years provided the enterprises invested a capital equivalent of about USD 5 million in fixed assets or infrastructure. Industrial Parks incentives include the following: Free of charge transfer of land for purpose of establishing an industrial park Allowance to private public land that is associated with construction according to the price allowed by the law. Allowance for free zoning of agricultural into industrial land. Possibility of reduced rental price for state land. Some examples of potential FEZ locations are provided in the next page. FEZs also allow for repatriation of profits from Moldova after full filling tax requirements. Furthermore, workers can be hired through a simplified procedure. Page 14 Selected Free Economic Zones Selected Free Economic Zones (FEZ) locations for investment Name FEZ description FEZ Expo Business Chisinau Located in Chisinau, the free zone covers about 23.6 hectares and is planned to operate between 1995 to 2025. FEZ Balti Created for a period of 25 years in Balti city in the north of the country. The Free Zone is divided into four subzones. A total of USD 39.3 million in investments have been made since establishment. FEZ Valkanes The FEZ was created in 1998 for a period of 25 years. The FEZ covers an area of around 122.3 hectares divided into two zones. 30 residents were registered in the zone in 2012 while total investments amounted to USD 15 million. Giurgiulesti International Free Port (GIFP) Located about 133.8 kilometers up the river Danube, GIFP was established for a period of 25 years in 2005. It covers an area of around 120 hectares including a petroleum terminal, a cargo port and an industrial free zone. The free zone is under private ownership and an advantage of setting up business in this free zone is that business can also engage in activities that they would do outside the free zones in Moldova. Some examples of activities in this zone includes its use for port and transport services, manufacture of industrial products, wholesale trade and packaging of goods. There is no minimum investment required to be part of GIFP. Free Zone Ungheni Business Located in the city of Unfgheni in the centre of Moldova. The free zone was established in 2002 for a period of 42 years. Its total area is around 42.34 hectares. There were 35 residents registered in the free zone in 2013 while investment amounted to around USD 55.8 million Source: Doing Business 2015, doingbusiness.org, World Bank Group and Price WaterHouse Coopers and MIEPO, Investing Guide Moldova 2014. Page 15 Inward FDI inflows into the Republic of Moldova According to information from UNCTAD, Moldova has been generally successful in attracting inward FDI. In 2009 FDI inflows saw big fall due in part to the impact of the global economic downturn. Republic of Moldova FDI inflows (USD millions) 800 700 600 500 While the Moldovan economy recovered in 2010 and 2011, in 2012 the economy experienced a decline in growth. This was also coupled with growth concerns in the Eurozone economies. Therefore while FDI inflows have recovered, they have not yet risen to 2007 levels. 400 300 200 100 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 The Moldovan government has relatively low tax rates, for example the corporate tax rate is about 12%. The Republic of Moldova offers many tax and other incentive for potential investors. The government of Moldova has created Free Economic Zones (FEZ) in which activities such as production for export, sorting and packaging of goods for transit through Moldova. There is zero VAT on goods exported from an FEZ and income obtained from export of goods from FEZ to outside the customs region of Moldova is exempted from Corporate Income Tax (CIT) for five years provided that the enterprise invested about USD 5 million in fixed assets or in development of infrastructure of the FEZ. 2000 0 Source: Dubai Chamber based on United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), UNCTADSTAT Page 16 FDI Inflow: Composition Sector composition of cumulative FDI inflows into Moldova (2011) According to data from the Moldovan Ministry of Economy, sectors receiving large shares investment inflows in 2011 included financial services, manufacturing and real estate. Inspite of the potential in the agricultural sector, investment in this sector had a small share of overall FDI inflows EU countries made up most of the FDI inflows into Moldova in 2011. Therefore Holland, Germany, UK, Spain, Italy and Poland together made up the largest share of FDI inflows into Moldova. Russia had the second highest share at 11% for individual countries. The US had about 7% share in FDI inflows in Moldova's economy in 2011, while Turkey also had made investments into Moldova and had a share of about 3% in 2011. Overall most major investors in Moldova tend to be countries across Europe, who tend to understand the local business environment and want to use Moldova as a hub for doing business. Financial Services Manufacturing Industry [VALUE] [VALUE] 2 Real Estate Transactions 1 Electricity, Water and Gas Transport and Communication [VALUE] Health and Social Services [VALUE] Agriculture 23 Others 10 Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from Ministry of Economy Republic of Moldova and Invest in Moldova Country Report, Moldovan Investment and Export Promotion Organization (MIEPO). FDI inflows into Moldova by source country (2011) Holland 19 23 Russia Cyprus [VALUE] [VALUE] USA Germany UK 3 3 Romania 11 Spain Turkey 4 Italy 5 [VALUE] Poland Ukraine 5 6 7 Others Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from Ministry of Economy Republic of Moldova and Invest in Moldova Country Report, Moldovan Investment and Export Promotion Organization (MIEPO). Page 17 Investment opportunities in the Agriculture Production of selected agricultural and livestock products in Moldova (thousands of tons) With its rich natural environment, rich soil and favorable climate, Moldova’s agricultural sectors could hold potentially lucrative business opportunities. Moldova's soil is ideal for growing corn, fruits and vegetables. The production of corn has been stable from 2010 to 2013, while the production of vegetable has seen some reduction. Fruit production has experienced significant growth during this period. Given increased demand for organic products from the EU, thee exports of organic products have experienced strong growth, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate of around 47% from 2004 to 2013. Moldova has organic regulations in place and around 2% of its current arable land is used to produce organic food products. 2010 2011 2012 2013 1,420 1,468 572 1,419 Vegetables 341 362 231 292 Fruits 322 378 380 415 Production of corn Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from Moldova National Bureau of Statistics and ‘Agricultural Report’ Republic of Moldova, Invest in Moldova. Export of Organic products by Moldova (tons) 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 0 2004 Livestock production could have potential synergy for export of halal meat to UAE and other GCC countries. Potential business opportunities include setting up new cattle farms, renovation of existing cattle farms and investment in halal meat storage and processing facilities. Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from Moldova National Bureau of Statistics and ‘Agricultural Report’ Republic of Moldova, Invest in Moldova. Page 18 Investment opportunities in the Automotive sector Comparison of per minute production costs for selected Eastern European countries (Euro) Moldova has a modern automotive industry which is supported by a educated and skilled workforce, and proximity to major European and CIS countries making it easy to transport automotive products to Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM). Up until now the production has mainly been to produce cables, car seat covers and wiring harnesses for cars. In terms of production costs, Moldova compared favorably with other central and eastern European countries. 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 Moldova is position on the largest pan European corridor between Helsinki (Finalnd) and Alexandroupoli (Greece). It takes about 2 days to deliver good to Germany. This makes it possible to produce car parts and other automotive products using Just-inTime production. Prospective investors could invest in one of the 7 Free Economic Zones of Moldova which offer preferential conditions and access to important transport routes. Investors would also note that the 20% VAT in Moldova is reimbursed for exports from FEZs. Moldova Romania Serbia Bulgaria Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from Moldova National Bureau of Statistics, Spelleken Assoc. and Avanz Experts‘ Panel, ‘introduction to the Automotive sector’ Republic of Moldova, Moldova Investment and Export Promotion Organization Distance to some Original Equipment Manufacturers from Chisinau, Moldova (kilometers) Pitesti (Dacia Renault) 560 Hungary 980 Slovakia 1180 Czech Republic 1510 Germany 1510 Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from Moldova National Bureau of Statistics, Spelleken Assoc. and Avanz Experts‘ Panel, ‘introduction to the Automotive sector’ Republic of Moldova, Moldova Investment and Export Promotion Organization Page 19 Investment opportunities in Pharmaceuticals and Health care Per capita total health care expenditure in Moldova (USD) The size and growth of Moldova's health care sector creates opportunities for businesses both on the supply side and demand side. On the supply side Moldova's production value of medical and testing appliances has seen grown at a CAGR of around 31% from 2009 to 2014. On the demand side per capita total health care expenditure is also expected to continue to see a strong increase in the future. Niche areas of growth could include aged care centers and aviation sanitation. Given the need for more hospitals, there could be many potentially lucrative business opportunities. Medical and testing equipment could also be exported to other countries in Europe. According to data from trademap.org, Moldova exported about USD 113 million worth of goods under HS 30 Pharmaceutical products, most of them going to the CIS countries. Further investments in pharmaceutical and medical appliance production in Moldova could enable UAE businesses to benefit rom the opportunities in medical product exports from Moldova. 250 200 150 100 50 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 0 2003 As discussed earlier, Moldova’s population is undergoing significant ageing. The average age of the Moldovan population is expected to increase from 27.7 years in 1980 to around 45.8 years of age by 2050. According to Business Monitor International (BMI) Moldova Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Report Q2 2015, the Moldovan Pharmaceutical sector was forecasted to be worth around USD 297 million in 2015, while the healthcare sectors. healthcare sector is forecasted to be worth around USD 820 million. 300 Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from Euromonitor International. 800 Production of Medical, Measuring, Testing Appliances (Million Moldovan LEU) 600 400 200 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from Euromonitor International. Page 20 Investment opportunities in Textile and footwear Gross Value Added from Manufacture of Textiles and Textile products (Million Molodvan Leu) Moldova has a rich history in producing textile, quality apparel and footwear. Production of textile and apparel and footwear have grown, key markets include the EU, CIS countries and Turkey. 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 0 2009 Moldova has the ability to quickly deliver fashion products given that it takes about 1 day by truck to deliver products to Eastern Europe and 2 days to Western Europe. With such low delivery times and availability of required workforce, and relatively competitive cost of production, there could be potentially lucrative investment opportunities in the Moldovan textile and footwear. Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from Euromonitor International Production of footwear (million Moldovan Leu) 300 250 200 150 100 50 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 0 2009 Given the need to manage the logistics needs of fast changing fashion items, UAE businesses with experience in logistics could establish warehouses and provide transport and trucking facilities to Moldovan textile companies to get their goods quickly to the export destination in Europe and elsewhere. Source: Dubai Chamber based on data from Euromonitor International Page 21 Risks And Challenges Economic Challenges Demographic change: Moldova’s population is facing a strong reduction in numbers due in part to migration to other countries. This decline in numbers of working members of society coupled with an aging population can be expected to put a significant burden on future economic growth and budgetary revenues. Spillover of global and regional macro-economic challenges: The Republic of Moldova has a relatively small economy and is surrounded by many large markets. As a result global and regional economic and trade turbulences have the potential to cause economic challenges in the country. Business wanting to hedge against these risks should therefore aim to diversify their businesses across sectors and also in other regions. Challenges in effective financial intermediation: Weak financial intermediation leading to difficulty in access to finance is a major constraint for businesses in Moldova which could also lead to higher financing costs. Ease of Doing business: While Moldova has made improvements in the ease of doing business, some challenges remain. Some of these include the following: Trading across borders: According to Doing Business 2015 of the World Bank Group, it takes about 27 days to import goods into Moldova and 23 days to export goods. Furthermore, According to Doing Business 2015 of the World Bank Group, it takes on average about 9 documents and 23 days to export goods from Moldova. This is significantly higher than the documents and time for Romania and Hungary. The landlocked geography of the country combined with documentation required can be challenge in trading with business in Moldova. Dealing with construction permits: It takes about 247 days and 27 procedures to deal with construction permits with Moldova ranking at 175 out of 189 economies according to Doing Business 2015. Getting electricity: It takes about 118 days and 7 procedures to get electricity in Moldova and it ranked at 149 out 189 economies in getting electricity according to data from Doing Business 2015. Page 22 Conclusion Despite some challenges and its landlocked geography, Moldova offers prospective business with a diverse range of trade and investment opportunities. A large number of these opportunities arise from the potential to use Moldova as a production, re-packaging and logistics base to do trade with the European Union countries on one side and the CIS countries on the other side. Selected trade opportunities for UAE businesses include opportunities for exporting and re-exporting finished products to Moldova such as: • Cars, • Tractors (for agriculture) , • Machinery, • Electrical equipment, • Plastics and articles and • Pharmaceuticals. Several of these products are made in Asia and this creates opportunities for UAE businesses to intermediate between Asia and Europe and export these goods to Moldova. Sectors with possible investment opportunities include: • Agriculture • Automotive • Pharmaceuticals and health care • Textile and footwear Page 23 References World Bank Database, accessed 5th July 2015 via http://data.worldbank.org/country European Commission, Trade , Moldova accessed 5th July 2015 via http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/moldova/> Moldova Investment and Export Promotion Organization. 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