Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2645–2659 www.elsevier.com/locate/enconman CO2 sequestration in Ontario, Canada. Part I: storage evaluation of potential reservoirs A. Shafeen, E. Croiset *, P.L. Douglas, I. Chatzis Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave. West, Waterloo, Ont., Canada N2L 3G1 Received 29 September 2003; accepted 9 December 2003 Available online 9 April 2004 Abstract The Kyoto target set for Canada is to reduce GHG emission by 6% of the 1990 level by 2008–2012. Several options are being considered to achieve this target. For deep reductions within the next decade or two, CO2 sequestration is the only option if fossil fuel power plants, in particular coal based plants, are to remain in operation. In the case of Ontario, the only sequestration option is geological sequestration in saline aquifers, where CO2 is expected to be stored for long geological periods, from one hundred to several thousand years depending on the size, properties and location of the reservoir. The preferred concept is to inject CO2 into a porous and permeable reservoir covered with a cap rock located at least 800 m beneath the earth’s surface where CO2 can be stored under supercritical conditions. The injection pressure and temperature should be above the critical temperature and pressure of CO2 (31.1 °C and 7.38 MPa). This is the first study of its kind in Ontario. Two different major reservoirs with approximate storage capacities of 289 million and 442 million tonnes are identified in southwestern Ontario for CO2 sequestration, one located in the southern part of Lake Huron and the other located inside Lake Erie. These reservoirs might contain approximately 14–21 years of CO2 emissions from a nearby coal-fired power generation unit having a total generation capacity of about 4000 MW. Ó 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Carbon dioxide sequestration; Michigan and Appalachian Basin; Mt. Simon sandstone; Saline aquifer 1. Introduction Sequestration of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in deep saline aquifers offers the opportunity to isolate CO2 for long geological time periods. It might, therefore, be an attractive option for large * Corresponding author. Tel.: +1-519-888-4567x6472; fax: +1-519-746-4979. E-mail address: [email protected] (E. Croiset). 0196-8904/$ - see front matter Ó 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2003.12.003 2646 A. Shafeen et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2645–2659 CO2 emitters, such as fossil fuel based power plants located close to the aquifers. A large volume of CO2 can be stored in a saline formation if it is injected at a temperature and pressure beyond its critical state (31.1 °C and 7.38 MPa). The reason behind supercritical CO2 injection is to take advantage of its high density, enabling storage of large amounts of CO2 in a reduced volume. Other possible ways of storage include gaseous and liquid CO2 , but these are not considered because of their limited potential and because they can only be useful in the case of small volumes. A minimum reservoir depth of 800 m is necessary for CO2 to remain in its supercritical state [1]. This depth may vary according to the location of the reservoir and the subsurface temperature and pressure gradient of the formation. In the case of Ontario, the target reservoir for sequestration is the saline aquifer of Mt. Simon sandstone in the Michigan and Appalachian basins. This formation is of Cambrian origin and is located in southwestern Ontario. It could be a suitable CO2 sequestration option for the large Nanticoke generation plant (4000 MW installed capacity) located in southwestern Ontario and operated by Ontario Power Generation (OPG). This particular formation is chosen because of its availability at the required depth and the presence of a caprock known as the Shadow Lake Formation that overlies it. 2. Formation temperature and pressure It is difficult to predict the actual temperature and pressure gradients for the Mt. Simon formation due to the absence of necessary data related to subsurface temperatures and pressures. Fig. 1 shows the temperature and pressure gradients for the Michigan basin. The temperature gradient is based on the work done by Vugrinovich [2], where a gradient of 0.0192 °C/m is used in an equation of bottomhole temperature (BHT) to determine the subsurface temperature. A pressure gradient of 0.0095 MPa/m is used in this study [3–5]. It is a useful tool for describing the parameters (P ; T ) of this formation. According to these gradients, a minimum depth of 865 m is required to reach the conditions of a CO2 supercritical state. The minimum depth may decrease to about 800 m if a temperature gradient more than 0.0192 °C/m (e.g. 0.025 °C/m, as suggested by Cercone [3] for the Michigan basin) is used. To overcome this uncertainty, a new set of experimental data and core analysis explicitly meant to identify subsurface temperature and pressure as well as the rock properties, such as porosity and permeability, is necessary. In this study, the uncertainties related to the temperature and pressure gradients are avoided by selecting the 800 m depth contour on top of the caprock (Shadow Lake Formation). The combined thickness of the Shadow Lake formation (up to 15 m) and the underlying Eau Claire formation (up to 80 m), embedded in between Shadow Lake and the Mt. Simon sandstone, ensures the minimum depth requirement for the caprock, as well as for the underlying aquifer. 3. Geology of southwestern Ontario A sedimentary basin is the place where storage of any gas or liquid is possible due to its porous nature. In Ontario, the sedimentary basins cover approximately 320,000 km2 , which is almost one A. Shafeen et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2645–2659 2647 Temp [ C ] 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 200 Depth [m] 400 T P 600 CO 2 critical pressure 7.38 MPa 800 CO2 critical temp 31.1 1000 BHT=14.5 + 0.0192*depth 1200 1400 1600 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Pressure [MPa] Fig. 1. Subsurface temperature and pressure gradients for the Michigan basin. Fig. 2. Sedimentary Basin in Ontario (modified from Johnson et al. [6]). 18 19 20 2648 A. Shafeen et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2645–2659 third of the total surface area of the province [6]. It includes northern Ontario and Hudson Bay and the entire area of southern Ontario (see Fig. 2). However, sequestration is not possible in all these areas. In the case of the Hudson Bay Lowland in northern Ontario, the location is not suitable for CO2 sequestration due to the shallow depth of the porous formation rock. Moreover, deep inside the bay, where depth may not be a constraint, its distance from large point CO2 sources, such as a coalfired power plant, render it practically useless as a sequestration site. Similarly, the Central St. Lawrence Platform, located in south-eastern Ontario (see Fig. 2) will not be considered. In southwestern Ontario, the target reservoir for sequestration is the Mt. Simon sandstone of the western St. Lawrence Platform (see dark gray area in Fig. 2). Depending on the depth and availability of the formation rock, the possible sequestration area is divided into two zones identified as the northern zone and southern zone. These two zones are shown in Fig. 3. The northern zone, NZ, consists of the lower half of Lake Huron and the uppermost part of Lambton county. The southern zone, SZ, consists of the northern half of Essex county, southern half of Lake St. Clair, lower half of Kent, lower half of Elgin, southern part of Haldimand-Norfolk county and the area inside Lake Erie south of these counties. The 800 m depth contour is drawn on top of the Shadow Lake formation, which overlaps the Mt. Simon sandstone. It consists of a few meters of dolomitic and sandy shale and acts as an excellent caprock [6,7]. The presence of Fig. 3. Reservoir locations in southwestern Ontario. A. Shafeen et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2645–2659 2649 hydrocarbon in Clearville, Gobles Innerkip and Willey pools is proof of the integrity of this cap rock [8]. In general, the Shadow Lake formation, a middle Ordovician Black River group, is continuously present (see Fig. 4) in the whole of southwestern Ontario [9]. The normal thickness of the formation is 2–3 m and the maximum is 15 m [6]. The proven hydrocarbon reserve beneath the cap rock implies that the storage of carbon dioxide could also be possible below this formation. Even though the thickness of the Shadow Lake formation is only between 2–15 m, the overlying succession of limestones and shales of the Gull River (7.5–136 m), Bobcaygeon (7–87 m), Verulam (32–65 m) and Lindsay (maximum 67 m) formations reinforces the integrity of the cap rock. These formations are also known as Gull River, Coboconk, Kirkfield, Sherman Fall and Cobourg (see Fig. 4). Finally, the shales of the upper Ordovician Blue Mountain (up to 60 m thick), Georgian Bay (125–200 m, also known as Meaford-Dundas) and Queenston (45–335 m) formations (see Fig. 4) will retard any upward movement and keep CO2 beneath them at trapped conditions [6,10,11]. The primary cap rock, Shadow Lake, and the subsequent upper shales increase the efficiency of the cap rock and its trapping performance. The Eau Claire formation (up to 80 m), embedded in between Shadow Lake and the Mt. Simon sandstone (up to 50 m), could also act as a caprock as mentioned in some studies [4,5]. If this is the case, it will be an added safety to store carbon dioxide in the aquifer of Mt. Simon sandstone. 4. Capacity of the formation Capacity estimates for these two zones are based on assumed values of parameters such as porosity, permeability, CO2 saturation and sweep efficiency. A few core analysis reports (dating back to the early 60s and 80s) for the Cambrian formation suggest that the porosity in the formation ranges from 5% to 15% [12,13]. As for permeability analysis, the data from these reports are too inconsistent to reach a firm conclusion as to the values to be used. Moreover, the depth reported in those core analysis reports for the Cambrian formation is higher than the one reported by Brigham [9] and by the Ontario Geological Survey [7]. These uncertainties reveal the lack of scientifically sound data to predict a true porosity and permeability for this formation. In the case of porosity, a conservative estimate of 10% seems to be quite consistent with the available data [5,12,13]. For calculation purposes, a permeability value of 20–30 md (millidarcy) could be chosen as a starting point as a number of data reported by those analyses falls within this range. For most cases, the vertical permeability is reported as <0.01 md for the different carbonate formations [12,13]. The average formation thickness is assumed to be approximately 31 m for both the NZ and SZ reservoirs [4,6,7,9]. There is no universally accepted method to calculate the storage capacity of a formation. Different models are available for calculation [14–16], and the model suggested by Tanaka et al. [16] is used here. Unlike the other methods, this model has fewer assumptions. Storage capacity ¼ ðdisplaceable volume þ dissolved volume of CO2 in water in situÞ Storage capacity ¼ Ef A h / ½Sg =Bg ðCO2 Þ þ ð1 Sg Þ Rs ðCO2 Þ ð1Þ 2650 A. Shafeen et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2645–2659 Fig. 4. Composite stratigraphic column (after [11], http://www.ogsrlibrary.com/doc/strat1a.pdf). A. Shafeen et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2645–2659 2651 where Ef overall sweep efficiency, (fraction) h formation thickness, (m) CO2 saturation, (fraction) Sg Bg (CO2 ) CO2 formation volume factor, (m3 /m3 ) [reservoir volume /std. volume] Rs (CO2 ) CO2 solubility in water, (m3 /m3 ) A projected structural area of formation, (m2 ) / porosity, (fraction, dimensionless) In Eq. (1), CO2 injection is assumed to be in a gaseous or supercritical state. During injection, part of the formation water is displaced by the CO2 , and the rest of the formation water that is not displaced plays an active role in dissolving some of the CO2 into it. Like other two phase systems, the saturation of injected CO2 in the formation depends on the relative permeabilities of the CO2 and formation water. The injected CO2 often passes through some parts of the formation due to gravity segregation and viscous fingering phenomena that affect the sweep efficiency [17]. The sweep efficiency depends on the reservoir thickness, vertical permeability distribution and mobility ratio of the injected CO2 and formation water. The mobility of a fluid in a porous medium is defined as the ratio of the effective permeability to the viscosity of that fluid [16,17]. The solubility of carbon dioxide in the formation water varies according to the degree of salinity as well as according to temperature and pressure. Generally, solubility decreases with the increasing salinity [1]. The salinity of the Mt. Simon aquifer in the Elgin, Essex, Kent, Middlesex and Lambton counties is dominated by sodium, calcium and chloride ions. The values of the total dissolved solids (TDS) in these areas vary between 100,000–300,000 ppm [18]. An average value of 200,000 ppm would be a good estimate for this formation [5,18]. The CO2 solubility is found to be 10 m3 /m3 at an average salinity of 200,000 ppm and at a temperature and pressure of 37.7 °C and 10 MPa, respectively [19]. The CO2 formation volume factor is calculated to be 0.0029114 m3 / SCM at an average reservoir temperature and pressure similar to that of the solubility measurement [17]. The CO2 saturation and sweep efficiency are assumed to be 20% and 10%, respectively. For accurate estimation, reservoir modeling software should be used, such as TOUGH2, ECLLIPSE or GEM/STARS [1]. 4.1. Case study: Reserve capacity for Nanticoke CO2 emission According to the ‘Greenhouse Gas Action Plan-2000’ report published by Ontario Power Generation (OPG), the annual CO2 emission from Nanticoke in the year 2000 was 21.5 million tonnes [20]. The storage capacities of the two zones (NZ and SZ) were calculated to determine the potential number of years available for storing the CO2 emitted from the Nanticoke power plant. The approximate surface area of the Mt. Simon sandstone inside the Canadian territory is estimated to be 6250 and 9525 km2 for the northern and southern zones, respectively [21]. In the case of the northern zone, the total capacity is estimated at 289 million tonnes, which is equivalent to 13.5 years of Nanticoke’s emissions. In the case of the southern zone, the storage capacity value is 442 million tonnes, that is 20.5 years of Nanticoke’s emissions. These estimates may increase by up to five fold if the sweep efficiency is increased to 50% from the assumed value 2652 A. Shafeen et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2645–2659 of 10% [16]. Because of its higher storage capacity and the proximity to the Nanticoke plant, the southern zone seems more promising for sequestration. Preliminary investigation reveals that the probable location for injection in the southern zone could be in Lake Erie on the Canada–USA border, which is slightly west of 81° and due south to Port Stanley (see Fig. 5). The highest depth of the Mt. Simon formation in this area will maximize the amount of sequestration. Once CO2 is injected, it will tend to rise upward and will reach the top of the aquifer until it is obstructed by the caprock. Once obstructed, the CO2 plume will spread gradually laterally and simultaneously dissolve in the saline formation. The rate of dissolution will be controlled by the surface area of CO2 in contact with the formation water. This phenomenon occurs due to the buoyancy force caused by the density difference between the supercritical CO2 and the saline water present in the formation. The more CO2 is in contact with the formation water, the higher the solubility of CO2 will be and, hence, the amount that can be sequestered will increase [22]. In the case of the southern zone, the CO2 plume will probably move towards the north due to the shallow depth of the formation rock in that direction. As it was found that most of the hydrocarbon traps in these rocks occur where the sandstone strata pinch out against the southeastern flank of the Algonquin Arch [6], so will also be the case with the injected CO2 . Similarly, any injection near the Canada–USA border inside Lake Erie will probably result in an insignificant amount of CO2 migrating into the USA territory. Clearly, buoyancy is playing the major role in the case of the CO2 plume movement. Migration of the plume in different directions will Fig. 5. Major subsurface fault locations in southwestern Ontario (faults are indicated as dotted line). A. Shafeen et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2645–2659 2653 also be influenced by the hydrodynamics of groundwater in the sedimentary basins. Related data for hydrogeology seems to be almost non-existent for the case of the Mt. Simon sandstone [23]. Numerous reservoir modeling studies by different authors imply that the plume migration will not be more than 25–50 km [24–27]. Before exceeding this distance, the plume might dissolve completely into the aquifer which may take up to several thousand years. The distance from the imaginary injection point to the 800 m contour on the Shadow Lake formation is approximately 75 and 120 km (see Fig. 5) towards the eastern and western direction [7]. As a result, the chance of migration of the plume up to that distance is less. If, by any chance, some remaining CO2 crosses the 800 m limit, it will vaporise, and hence, the CO2 will move vigorously upward. Depending on the amount of CO2 , the possibility of leakage might increase. A detailed study is needed to determine the impact of the subsurface geology beyond the 800 m limit on sequestration activities. Hydrocarbon exploration/production activities are currently in progress in different pools, such as Clearville, Aldborough 4-Z-II, Dunwich 8-22-ABF and Raleigh 1-17-XIII in the Mt. Simon formation in the southern zone [8]. They are located just beyond the 50 km range from the injection point which allows a ‘sequestration without EOR’ activity in this region. These production activities might enable the sequestration to be economically viable if the enhanced oil recovery option is also evaluated. The Innerkip and Gobles pools are located almost 150 km away from the imaginary injection point. The distance is at least three to six times greater than that of the CO2 migration distance. It ensures that any unwanted interaction is avoidable with the sequestration and the hydrocarbon production activity from these two pools. 5. Safety issues One of the major concerns for sequestration is leakage to the atmosphere. Leakage may occur through a faulted zone, especially when the fault covers all the geological layers from the surface to the basement rock. It may also occur through abandoned wells. Abandoned wells may act as a bypass to the atmosphere if these were not sealed properly. Catastrophic leakage may occur due to seismic activities (e.g. fractures may develop in the caprock) if the storage location is situated nearby the earthquake hazard zone. Several large and a good number of small faults (see Fig. 5) are present in the target area [28]. Most of these faults are the sites of potential hydrocarbon traps, such as the Willey and Clearville pools [7]. The presence of hydrocarbon in these traps indicates that the faults are not working as a pathway for leakage. The distance of some of the major faults, especially the Electric fault, from the imaginary injection point is almost 50 km (see Fig. 5). The comparatively short distance of different faults, such as the Electric, Dover, Dawn and Kimball–Collinville fault makes them more important candidates for detailed investigation in order to determine their behaviour and performance as a trap. A large number of abandoned and unknown oil wells are present in southwestern Ontario whose status is not well documented. These have been abandoned for the past 20–90 years. There are no updated reports available about the status of cement plugging and its strength. Moreover, the quality and quantity of cement used in the early years might have severely degraded by this time. The reactivity of the injected CO2 (or mixture of gas) with this cement and its consequences needs to be evaluated. Many of these wells (2500) have no plug end date, which raises questions 2654 A. Shafeen et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2645–2659 about their present situation. An in depth analysis, based on the abandoned well data available for southern Ontario, unveils the identity of the wells that could be most vulnerable to leakage. These wells are identified depending on their depth and availability of the plug end date. Arbitrarily, a limit of P700 m was set for well depths to find the number of wells. It was found that approximately 189 wells fall within these criteria. The locations of these wells in different counties are shown in Table 1. The reason to choose 700 m as the base case is only because of their close proximity to the reservoir and their probable susceptibility in case of any leak from the cap rock or failure of the cement plugging. If the screening criteria include only the depth, irrespective of citation of the plug end date, the number would jump to 834 wells [29]. A detailed investigation is necessary to determine the real status of these wells, their ability to withstand the sequestration pressure and impact on the environment in case of a failure. Seismic hazard data from Natural Resources Canada [30] and the US Geological Survey [31] indicate that the target location for sequestration and the surrounding area in the states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York falls within the lowest hazard zone (Figs. 6 and 7). Table 1 List of abandoned, unknown, cancelled and suspended wellsa County Elgin Essex Huron Kent Oxford Lake Erie Total a Abandoned and unknown wells without plug end date P 700 m Cancelled and suspended wells without plug end date P 700 m 12 8 4 95 8 1 5 14 1 4 32 5 128 61 Data source (as of 01-04-03): Ontario Oil, Gas and Salt Resources Library. Fig. 6. Seismic hazard map of Canada (after [30], http://www.seismo.nrcan.gc.ca/hazards/zoning/seismiczonea_e.php). A. Shafeen et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2645–2659 2655 Fig. 7. Seismic hazard map of USA (after [31], http://geohazards.cr.usgs.gov/eq/index.html). This gives us confidence for proceeding with the sequestration activity in the selected area, at least with respect to seismic hazard. The possibility of any seismic activity induced by the deep well injection of CO2 into the target area could also be a concern for sequestration. More studies are necessary in this regard. 6. Uncertainties Significant uncertainties are associated with the reservoir capacity calculation and identification of the abandoned wells that are most vulnerable. Uncertainties include: the nature of the reservoir, sweep efficiency and injection process. It also includes the hydrodynamics of the formation water and the chemical reactions of CO2 with the rock and saline water. Uncertainty related to the sweep efficiency should be overcome in order to predict the exact reserve capacity of the formation. It might be required to drill additional wells during the injection process, depending on the behaviour of the reservoir. Uncertainties in the reservoir condition during the injection process could lead to an unexpected work load associated with huge cost involvement. Hydrodynamics and geochemical reactions might influence the reserve capacity by altering the properties of the rock matrix. No data is available for southern Ontario related to these two parameters. Impurities in the CO2 flow stream would reduce the transportation capacity of the pipeline. Once the capture process identifies the exact composition of the intake CO2 at the battery limit of the sequestration process, it would be easier to determine the correct size of the pipeline. 7. Sensitivity analysis Storage capacity is very sensitivity to the values of porosity, permeability, sweep efficiency, solubility and CO2 saturation. There are some porosity, permeability and solubility data available 2656 A. Shafeen et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2645–2659 Reservoir Capaacity [MM ton] for the Michigan basin, but no data are available for the other parameters. Based on the available data for porosity, a sensitivity analysis is performed to observe the effect on the overall reservoir capacity (see Fig. 8). The lower and the higher limit are set at 5% and 25% by observing the available data. With increasing porosity, the capacity of the reservoir increases and similarly decreases with decreasing values. The reservoir capacity might vary between 220 and 1104 million tonnes (M tonnes), which represent 10–50 years of current annual emission from the Nanticoke power plant. Sweep efficiency will also produce exactly the same result as the porosity if varied between 5% and 25%. If it is possible to reach a higher limit of 50%, the reserve could be more than 2200 M tonnes of CO2 . In the case of CO2 saturation, ranging between 5% and 25%, the trend will be similar to that of the porosity, but the slope will be less (see Fig. 8). Any change in permeability will indirectly affect the reserve capacity by altering the injection flow rate. A change in solubility, caused by the different values of total dissolved solids (TDS) in saline water, would influence the reserve capacity too (see Fig. 9). The capacity varies between 442 and 487 M tonnes due to a change in TDS in brine from 200,000 to 100,000 ppm keeping all other variables constant. Solubility might play an insignificant role in the reserve calculation if the value 1200 1000 Porosity CO2 Saturation 800 600 400 200 0 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 Porosity and Saturation [fraction] 0.3 0.35 Fig. 8. Sensitivity of reserve capacity at different values of porosity and CO2 saturation. 490 Capacity [MMton] 480 470 460 450 440 430 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 Brine Concentration [ ppm of TDS] Fig. 9. Sensitivity of reserve capacity at different values of TDS in brine solution. A. Shafeen et al. / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 2645–2659 2657 of TDS exceeds more than 300,000 ppm. The effect of TDS on capacity estimation is much less than that of the porosity and the CO2 saturation. 8. Conclusions Mt. Simon sandstone is a promising location for CO2 sequestration. The area of the formation inside the Canadian territory is small compared to that of the area inside the states of Michigan and Ohio. A coordinated effort between Canada and the USA can make sequestration in this formation a success. With the exception of the concerns described in the safety aspects, the caprock integrity seems to be acceptable. The presence of shale formation in the Silurian and Devonian strata (Fig. 4) of the study area will provide a succession of barriers to vertical migration of CO2 and might contain any leak of CO2 if it occurs from the main caprock. The biggest advantage for Nanticoke power generation is that it is located on top of the same formation where CO2 storage is possible. However, the distant location from the point source and the cross country piping network through populated areas makes the northern zone less attractive for sequestration of Nanticoke CO2 . Power plants located in nearby Lambton county or in Sarnia will be the best candidates for the northern zone. Finally, the acceptability of the sequestration idea in a densely populated and economically rich area like southwestern Ontario will be a difficult task. Moreover, environmental concerns such as the conservation of natural resources like Lake Erie, could pose a great barrier for carrying out any sequestration activity deep below the lake. Establishing adequate safety measures and implementing a contingency plan in case of a blowout of an injection well could be some of the necessary preconditions for sequestration in this area. A state of the art monitoring plan for underground CO2 movement is also necessary to enhance the confidence level of the sequestration activity. However, convincing the local community, where people will theoretically reside on top of a large volume of stored CO2 , or the consumers, who might not get any visible benefit in their life time other than paying higher electricity bills, will remain the major challenge. 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