(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
32/,7,&$/&216(48(1&(62)7+(5()8*((&5,6,6
±7+(&$6(2)*(50$1<
0$5,$11$'8'Èâ29È
3ROLWLFNpG{VOHGN\XWHþHQHFNHMNUt]\±SUtSDG1HPHFND
Abstract: 7KH XQSUHFHGHQWHG PDJQLWXGH RI WKH RQJRLQJ UHIXJHH FULVLV KDV
WKH SRWHQWLDO WR FKDQJH WKH G\QDPLFV RI *HUPDQ SROLWLFV GUDPDWLFDOO\ DQG
SHUPDQHQWO\,WZLOOGRPLQDWHWKHSROLWLFDOGLVFRXUVHIRUPDQ\\HDUVWRFRPH
DQG PD\ FDXVH FRQVLGHUDEOH FKDQJHV LQ HOHFWRUDO SUHIHUHQFHV 7KH ORQJ
FKHULVKHG VWDELOLW\ RI WKH *HUPDQ SDUW\ V\VWHP LV HQGDQJHUHG :KLOH WKH
JRYHUQPHQW LV IDFLQJ D PDVVLYH GHFOLQH LQ LWV DSSURYDO UDWLQJV WKH ULJKW
ZLQJSRSXOLVW$OWHUQDWLYHIRU*HUPDQ\LVJDLQLQJJURXQGLQIHGHUDOSROLWLFV
$QJHOD 0HUNHO KDV ORQJ EHHQ FRQVLGHUHG DV D VXFFHVVIXO EXW XQLQVSLULQJ
OHDGHU,QWKHZDNHRIWKHUHIXJHHFULVLVVKHKDVHYHQWXDOO\FRPHRXWZLWKD
YLVLRQDQGRIIHUHGOHDGHUVKLS+RZHYHULQKHUVWUXJJOHIRUPRUH(XURSHDQ
VROLGDULW\VKHKDVEHHQDEDQGRQHGE\KHUSDUWQHUVLQWKH(8DQGKDVWRGHDO
ZLWKLQFUHDVLQJO\GLVLOOXVLRQHGPHPEHUVRIKHURZQSDUW\7KLVDUWLFOHLVDQ
DWWHPSWWRDQVZHUWZRNH\TXHVWLRQVZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHFXUUHQWVLWXDWLRQLQ
*HUPDQSROLWLFV&DQWKHUHIXJHHFULVLVVSHOOWKHHQGRIWKH0HUNHOHUD"$QG
FDQWKH$I'$OWHUQDWLYHIRU*HUPDQ\DFKLHYHDORQJODVWLQJUHDUUDQJHPHQW
RI WKH *HUPDQ SDUW\ V\VWHP EULQJLQJ WKH HUD RI SROLWLFDO PRGHUDWLRQ DQG
LGHRORJLFDOFRQYHUJHQFHWRDQHQG"7KHDQVZHUVDUHIRUPXODWHGZLWKLQWKH
EURDGHU FRQWH[W RI *HUPDQ\¶V GRPHVWLF SROLF\ G\QDPLFV DQG UHÀHFWLQJ WKH
FKDQJLQJUROHRI*HUPDQ\LQLQWHUQDWLRQDODQG(XURSHDQSROLWLFV
Keywords:*HUPDQ\UHIXJHHFULVLV$QJHOD0HUNHO$OWHUQDWLYHIRU*HUPDQ\$I'
-(/&ODVVL¿FDWLRQ)
,QJ0DULDQQD'XGiãRYi(NRQRPLFNiXQLYHU]LWDY%UDWLVODYH.DWHGUDPHG]LQiURGQêFKKRVSRGiUVN\FKY]ĢDKRYDKRVSRGiUVNHMGLSORPDFLH)DNXOWDPHG]LQiURGQêFKY]ĢDKRY
'ROQR]HPVNiFHVWD%UDWLVODYDHPDLOPDULDQQDGXGDVRYD#HXEDVN
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
,QWURGXFWLRQ
*HUPDQ\ EHORQJV WR FRXQWULHV PRVW DIIHFWHG E\ WKH RQJRLQJ UHIXJHH
FULVLVWULJJHUHGE\WKHFRQÀLFWVLQ6\ULDDQG,UDT*HUPDQ\LVVWUXJJOLQJWR
FRSH ZLWK WKH XQFHDVLQJ LQÀX[ RI UHIXJHHV ± LQ WKH FRXQWU\ UHFHLYHG
PLOOLRQ IXJLWLYHV >@ *HUPDQ &KDQFHOORU$QJHOD 0HUNHO LV EHFRPLQJ
LQFUHDVLQJO\LVRODWHGRYHUKHURSHQGRRUUHIXJHHSROLF\+HUFDOOVIRUPRUH
VROLGDULW\ZLWKLQWKH(8HJLQWKHIRUPRIWKHFRPSXOVRU\TXRWDV\VWHP
KDYHEHHQUHMHFWHGE\RWKHU(XURSHDQFRXQWULHV5LVLQJSROLWLFDOWHQVLRQVDW
KRPHDUHPDNLQJWKHSRVLWLRQRI$QJHOD0HUNHOLQFUHDVLQJO\LQVHFXUH
*HUPDQSROLWLFVKDVZLWKLQPRQWKVEHFRPHSRODULVHGWRDQXQSUHFHGHQWHG
H[WHQW :LWK 0HUNHO¶V DSSURYDO UDWLQJV SOXPPHWLQJ WKH $OWHUQDWLYH IRU
*HUPDQ\ $I' LV XVLQJ WKLV H[WUDRUGLQDU\ PRPHQWXP WR JDLQ JURXQG LQ
UHJLRQDODQGIHGHUDOSROLWLFV7KH$I'ZKLFKZDVIRXQGHGRQO\LQDVD
SROLWLFDOSODWIRUPIRUWKRVHZKRKDGRSSRVHG*HUPDQ\¶VHXURUHVFXHSROLF\
LV QRZ VXU¿QJ WKH SRSXOLVW ZDYH RI DQWLLPPLJUDQW VHQWLPHQWV &KDQFHOORU
0HUNHO¶V DFFRPPRGDWLQJ VWDQFH WRZDUGV UHIXJHHV ZDV LQLWLDOO\ DSSUDLVHG
DV UHPDUNDEO\ EROG DQG KXPDQH 3ULRU WR WKH FULVLV KHU SROLWLFDO VW\OH KDG
EHHQXVXDOO\GHVFULEHGDVYHU\FDXWLRXVUDWKHUUHÀHFWLQJWKDQVKDSLQJSXEOLF
RSLQLRQ>@0HUNHOKDVEHHQLQRI¿FHIRUPRUHWKDQDGHFDGHDQGKDVHQMR\HG
WKHUHSXWDWLRQRIDVRXQGPDQDJHUDQGFRROSUDJPDWLVW7KLVLVWKH¿UVWWLPH
LQKHURI¿FHRI*HUPDQ&KDQFHOORUZKHQVKHLVNQRZLQJO\DQGUHOHQWOHVVO\
SXUVXLQJDSROLF\DJDLQVWWKHLQFUHDVLQJO\GLVLOOXVLRQHGHOHFWRUDWH+RZHYHU
WKLVVXUSULVLQJPDQLIHVWDWLRQRIOHDGHUVKLSFRPHVDWKLJKFRVW7KHVRFDOOHG
EHVRUJWH%UJHUGLVFRQFHUWHGFLWL]HQVDUHORRNLQJIRUDQHZSROLWLFDOKRPH
DQGWKH$OWHUQDWLYHIRU*HUPDQ\LVRIIHULQJRQH7KH$I'LVFXUUHQWO\
-XQH SROOLQJ DW SHUFHQW >@ QDWLRQZLGH ZKLFK LV DQ LQFUHDVH RI SHUFHQWDJH SRLQWV VLQFH -XO\ ,Q 0DUFK WKH SDUW\ HQWHUHG WKUHH
VWDWHSDUOLDPHQWVZLWKVXUSULVLQJO\KLJKJDLQV
,WLVQRWWKHREYLRXV¿QDQFLDOEXUGHQRIWKHUHIXJHHFULVLV*HUPDQVZRUU\
DERXWWKHPRVW,WLVWKHIHDURIhEHUIUHPGXQJRYHUDOLHQDWLRQWKHIHHOLQJ
RIEHLQJRYHUUXQE\IRUHLJQHUV(YHQSHRSOHDFNQRZOHGJLQJWKDWSURYLGLQJ
DV\OXPWRUHIXJHHVÀHHLQJZDULVDKXPDQLWDULDQUHVSRQVLELOLW\DUHDZDUHRI
WKHIDFWWKDWHYHQDFRXQWU\DVSURVSHURXVDV*HUPDQ\LVLQFDSDEOHRIGHDOLQJ
ZLWKVXFKKLJKQXPEHUVRIUHIXJHHVLQWKHORQJUXQ3HRSOHZKRDUHUHVSRQVLEOH
IRULPSOHPHQWLQJWKHJRYHUQPHQWVSROLF\LQWRSUDFWLFHDUHVRXQGLQJDODUPV
,Q6D[RQ\$QKDOWDQHDVWHUQVWDWHWKH$I'ZRQRIWKHYRWHDQGFDPHVHFRQG,Q%DGHQ
:UWWHPEHUJDQG5KLQHODQG3DODWLQDWHWKH$I'FDPHWKLUGZLWKDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
7KHSROLFHDUHXQGHUVWDIIHGPD\RUVDQGDLGZRUNHUVH[KDXVWHG7KHUHLVD
VWURQJDQGJURZLQJEHOLHIWKDWWKHJRYHUQPHQWKDVORVWFRQWURORYHUWKHFULVLV
7KHPLJUDQWFULVLVKDVEHFRPHDQLVVXHGLVWXUELQJWKHVRFLDOEDODQFHDQG
WKUHDWHQLQJWKHSROLWLFDOVWDELOLW\LQ*HUPDQ\$VDUHVXOWLWFRXOGVKDNHXS
*HUPDQSROLWLFDOVFHQH±HQGDQJHUWKHDXWKRULW\RI$QJHOD0HUNHODQGIXHO
WKHSROLWLFDODPELWLRQVRIWKH$I'+HQFHLQWKLVDUWLFOHZHLGHQWLI\WZRNH\
TXHVWLRQV&DQWKHUHIXJHHFULVLVVSHOOWKHHQGRIWKH0HUNHOHUD"$QGFDQ
WKH$I'DFKLHYHDORQJODVWLQJUHDUUDQJHPHQWRIWKH*HUPDQSDUW\V\VWHP"
:HIRUPXODWHWKHDQVZHUVZLWKLQWKHEURDGHUFRQWH[WRI*HUPDQ\¶VGRPHVWLF
SROLF\G\QDPLFVDQGUHÀHFWLQJWKHFKDQJLQJUROHRI*HUPDQ\LQLQWHUQDWLRQDO
DQG(XURSHDQSROLWLFV
*HUPDQ\LQWKHVW&HQWXU\±*UHDW0RGHUDWLRQLQ3DUW\3ROLWLFVDQG
8QLQWHQGHG/HDGHUVKLSLQ(XURSH
*HUPDQSROLWLFVXQGHUZHQWVLJQL¿FDQWFKDQJHVDIWHUWKHHQGRIWKHFROGZDU
DQGUHXQL¿FDWLRQLQ,QWKHVPRVWRI*HUPDQ\¶VSROLWLFDOHQHUJ\ZDV
DEVRUEHGE\LQWHUQDOFKDOOHQJHVRIWKHUHXQL¿FDWLRQSURFHVV>@$IWHUWKH.RKO
HUDKDGFRPHWRDQHQGHFRQRPLFDQGVRFLDOLVVXHVEHFDPHDSULRULW\,QWKH
ODWHVDQGLQWRWKHHDUO\V*HUPDQ\JDLQHGWKHODEHO³WKHVLFNPDQRI
(XURSH´>@,QRUGHUWRSURPRWHHFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGUHGXFHXQHPSOR\PHQW
*HUPDQJRYHUQPHQWXQGHU*HUKDUG6FKU|GHULQWURGXFHGDVHULHVRIUHIRUPV
NQRZQDV$JHQGD8QSRSXODUZHOIDUHFXWVLQWRWKH*HUPDQZHOIDUHVWDWH
EHFDPHWKHPDLQFRQWURYHUV\LQ*HUPDQSROLWLFVLQWKHHDUO\V,QDQ\FDVH
*HUPDQ\WUDQVIRUPHGZLWKLQOHVVWKDQDGHFDGHLQWRDQHFRQRPLFVXSHUVWDU>@
DQGFDPHUHODWLYHO\XQVFDWKHGWKURXJKWKH*OREDO5HFHVVLRQLQWKHODWHV
7KHFRDOLWLRQJRYHUQPHQWRI6RFLDO'HPRFUDWVDQG*UHHQVKDGEHHQUHSODFHG
LQE\WKH*UDQG&RDOLWLRQRI&KULVWLDQ'HPRFUDWVDQG6RFLDO'HPRFUDWV
XQGHU WKH OHDGHUVKLS RI $QJHOD 0HUNHO 7KH FDELQHWV PDLQ IRFXV ZDV RQ
UHGXFLQJWKHSXEOLFGHEWDQGLQWURGXFLQJWD[UHOLHIV*HUPDQ\H[SHULHQFHGDQ
HFRQRPLFERRPDQGVWUHQJWKHQHGLWVSRVLWLRQDVH[SRUWFKDPSLRQ
7KH *OREDO 5HFHVVLRQ PDUNV WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI D QHZ HUD LQ *HUPDQ
SROLWLFV7KHULVLQJHFRQRPLFSRZHURIWKHODUJHVWDQGVWURQJHVWHFRQRP\LQ
(XURSHLVDFFRPSDQLHGE\DJURZLQJSHUFHSWLRQRI*HUPDQ\DVDKHJHPRQLF
SRZHUZLWKLQWKH(8+RZHYHU*HUPDQ\ZDVDUHOXFWDQWKHJHPRQLHLWV
OHDGLQJ UROH VWD\V SROLWLFDOO\ FRQWHVWHG >@ 0HUNHO¶V PDQDJHPHQW RI WKH
¿QDQFLDOFULVLVLQKDGEHHQFULWLFLVHGIRUEHLQJWRRVORZDQGLQGHFLVLYH
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
DQG LQWHUSUHWHG DV D SURRI RI *HUPDQ\¶V UHOXFWDQFH WR FODLP OHDGHUVKLS LQ
(XURSH7KHVXEVHTXHQWVRYHUHLJQGHEWFULVLVLQVHYHUDO(XURSHDQFRXQWULHV
IRUFHG *HUPDQ\ DV WKH OHDGLQJ (XUR]RQH FRXQWU\ WR VORZO\ DFFHSW LWV QHZ
DQG XQLQWHQGHG SRVLWLRQ$V D UHVXOW RI WKH ZRUVHQLQJ PDUNHW FRQ¿GHQFH
*HUPDQ JRYHUQPHQW HYHQWXDOO\ WRRN DFWLRQ 7KH KHVLWDQW VWDQFH WRZDUGV D
PRUHDFWLYHUROHRI*HUPDQ\LQUHVROYLQJWKHFULVLVKDVWREHXQGHUVWRRGLQ
D EURDGHU KLVWRULFDO FRQWH[W7KH IHDU RI *HUPDQ KHJHPRQ\ LV VWLOO SUHVHQW
LQWKH(XURSHDQSROLWLFDOGLVFRXUVH1RWVXUSULVLQJO\*HUPDQ\VOHDGHUVKLS
LQUHVSRQVHWRWKHFULVLVFDXVHGPXFKFRQWURYHUV\DFURVV(XURSH7KHVWULFW
DXVWHULW\ PHDVXUHV LPSRVHG RQ WKH WURXEOHG HFRQRPLHV RI *UHHFH 6SDLQ
3RUWXJDODQG,UHODQGKDYHEHHQLQFUHDVLQJO\SHUFHLYHGDVD³SROLF\GLFWDWH´
>@
:LWKWKHFULVLVLQ8NUDLQH0HUNHOKDGWRIDFH\HWDQRWKHUIRUHLJQSROLF\
FKDOOHQJH KHU ELJJHVW VR IDU +HU UROH LQ WKH QHJRWLDWLRQV ZLWK 5XVVLD DQG
8NUDLQH KDV EHHQ LQWHUSUHWHG DV *HUPDQ\¶V FODLP WR UHVXPH JHRSROLWLFDO
OHDGHUVKLS'URSSLQJKHUFXVWRPDU\VW\OHRIOHDGLQJIURPEHKLQGVKHKDVWDNHQ
HYHU\RSSRUWXQLW\WRGHHVFDODWHWKHFRQÀLFW>@7KHFULVLVLQ8NUDLQHPDUNV
DGH¿QLWLYHHQGWR*HUPDQ\¶V³FXOWXUHRIUHVWUDLQW´>@IURPJHRSROLWLFV
*HUPDQ\¶VUHWXUQWRWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOVFHQHFDPHDORQJZLWKDSHULRGRI
PRGHUDWLRQ LQ WKH GRPHVWLF SDUW\ SROLWLFV$QJHOD 0HUNHO ZDV VWHHULQJ WKH
&'8 &KULVWLDQ 'HPRFUDWV WRZDUGV WKH SROLWLFDO FHQWUH VDFUL¿FLQJ VRPH
RILWVFRQVHUYDWLYHSULQFLSOHV0RGHUQLVLQJWKHSDUW\LQVRFLRFXOWXUDOLVVXHV
DQGLQFRUSRUDWLQJVRPHOHIWLVWSRVLWLRQUHJDUGLQJWKHZHOIDUHVWDWH>@PLJKW
KDYHEHHQXQSRSXODULQKHURZQSDUW\QHYHUWKHOHVVLWZDVVXSSRUWHGE\D
PDMRULW\RI*HUPDQV7KLVSURJUDPPDWLFUHQHZDOLQFUHDVHGWKHDWWUDFWLYHQHVV
RI&'8>@EXWDOVROHIWLWVULJKWÀDQNRSHQ:KHQFRQVHUYDWLYHYRWHUVIHHO
DEDQGRQHG E\ HVWDEOLVKHG FRQVHUYDWLYH SDUWLHV D SODWIRUP IRU ULJKWZLQJ
SRSXOLVWVDQGUDGLFDOVLVFUHDWHG7KLVJDSKDVEHHQ¿OOHGLQZLWKWKH$I'
ZKLFKFKDOOHQJHGWKHDOOHJHG$OWHUQDWLYORVLJNHLEHLQJZLWKRXWDOWHUQDWLYHRI
&KDQFHOORU0HUNHO¶VSROLF\7KH6RFLDO'HPRFUDWV63'KDGH[SHULHQFHGD
VLPLODUGHYHORSPHQWXQGHUWKHOHDGHUVKLSRI*HUKDUG6FKU|GHU+LV$JHQGD
KDGEHHQSHUFHLYHGDVQHROLEHUDODQGLJQRULQJWKHLQWHUHVWVRIWKHZRUNLQJ
FODVV WKH WUDGLWLRQDO HOHFWRUDWH RI 6RFLDO 'HPRFUDWV$V D UHVXOW D SDUW RI
WKHGLVDSSRLQWHGYRWHUVZDQGHUHGWRWKHQHZHVWDEOLVKHGSRSXOLVWUDGLFDOOHIW
SDUW\'LH/LQNH7KH/HIW7KHSURJUDPPDWLFFRQYHUJHQFHRIWKH*HUPDQ
³9RONVSDUWHLHQ´ ELJ WHQW SDUWLHV KDV EHHQ FULWLFDOO\ DVVHVVHG E\ PHGLD
LQWHOOHFWXDOHOLWHVDQGUHSUHVHQWDWLYHVRIVPDOOSDUWLHV7KHLUFDWFKDOOVWUDWHJ\
PLJKWEHVXFFHVVIXOLQWHUPVRIHOHFWRUDOVXFFHVVEXWWKLVFRQVHQVXVRULHQWHG
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
SROLWLFVKDVDOVRFUHDWHGDQDWPRVSKHUHSHUFHLYHGDVDODFNRISOXUDOLW\WKDW
ZDVGHVWUR\LQJWKHSROLWLFDOGLVFRXUVHLQ*HUPDQ\
1HYHUWKHOHVVLQWKHFULVLVULGGHQUHFHQWSDVWWKHUHZDVOLWWOHURRPWRGLVFXVV
WKHGHWHULRUDWLRQRI*HUPDQ\¶VSROLWLFDOFXOWXUH:LWKWKHHXURFULVLVVORZO\
GLVDSSHDULQJIURPWKHIURQWSDJHVRI*HUPDQQHZVSDSHUVLQWKHVHFRQGKDOI
RI*HUPDQPHGLDDQGSROLWLFVUHIRFXVHGWRWKHSUREOHPRILPPLJUDWLRQ
7KH TXHVWLRQ KRZ WR GHDO ZLWK WKH ULVLQJ QXPEHUV RI LPPLJUDQWV EHFDPH D
WRSSULRULW\DQGPDLQLVVXHLQ*HUPDQ\7KHSKUDVH(XURSHDQPLJUDQWFULVLV
RU(XURSHDQUHIXJHHFULVLV3EHFDPHZLGHO\XVHGGXULQJZKHQDULVLQJ
QXPEHU RI UHIXJHHV DQG PLJUDQWV IURP $VLD $IULFD DQG :HVWHUQ %DONDQV
FDPHWRWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQWRVHHNDV\OXP+RZHYHUWKHULVLQJQXPEHURI
SHRSOHFURVVLQJWKH0HGLWHUUDQHDQ6HHZDVQRWDQHZSKHQRPHQRQ±DFFRUGLQJ
WRWKHERUGHUPDQDJHPHQWDJHQF\)URQWH[WKHYDULRXV0HGLWHUUDQHDQURXWHV
KDYHH[SHULHQFHGSHULRGLFVXUJHVLQPLJUDQWWUDI¿FRYHUWKHODVWGHFDGH>@
+RZHYHU(XURSHDQG*HUPDQ\KDGEHHQSUHRFFXSLHGZLWKRWKHULVVXHVDQG
VHYHUDO(8FRXQWULHVHYHQUHIXVHGWRIXQGWKH,WDOLDQUHVFXHSURJUDP2SHUDWLRQ
0DUH1RVWUXPZKLFKZDVUHSODFHGE\WKH)URQWH[UXQ 2SHUDWLRQ7ULWRQLQ
1RYHPEHU7KHVLWXDWLRQEHFDPHDFXWHLQVSULQJ6LQNLQJYHVVHOV
LQWKH0HGLWHUUDQHDQ6HHKDGUDLVHGWKHSXEOLFDZDUHQHVVDQGSXWSUHVVXUHRQ
(XURSHDQJRYHUQPHQWVWRFRSHZLWKWKHVLWXDWLRQ'XULQJWKHVXPPHURI
WKH %DONDQ RYHUODQG URXWH KDV UHSODFHG WKH 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ DV WKH IDYRXUHG
SDVVDJHIRUPLJUDQWV>@0LJUDQWVDUULYLQJLQ*UHHFHFRQWLQXHGWKURXJKWKH
%DONDQVDQG+XQJDU\DQGQRUWKWRZDUG:HVWHUQ(XURSH*HUPDQ\EHLQJWKHLU
SUHIHUUHGGHVWLQDWLRQ0HUNHODIWHUDVKRUWSHULRGRIKHVLWDWLRQGHFODUHGWKDW
*HUPDQ\ZRXOGGRZKDWLWLVPRUDOO\DQGOHJDOO\REOLJHGWRGR+HU³:HFDQ
PDQDJHLW´DSSURDFKLQLWLDOO\VSDUNHGDQDWPRVSKHUHGHVFULEHGDV³6HSWHPEHU
IDLU\WDOH´0DQ\FRQVLGHUHGWKHVLWXDWLRQDOVRDVDQRSSRUWXQLW\IRU*HUPDQ\
WR UHKDELOLWDWH LWV LPDJH UHVXOWLQJ IURP WKH KLVWRULFDO OHJDF\ DV ZHOO DV WKH
PHUFLOHVVVWDQFHRIWKHJRYHUQPHQWGXULQJWKH*UHHNGHEWFULVLV+RZHYHUWKH
IDLU\WDOHZDVVRRQRYHUDQGWKHPLJUDQWFULVLVKDVEHFRPHDQLVVXHGLVWXUELQJ
WKHVRFLDOEDODQFHDQGWKUHDWHQLQJWKHSROLWLFDOVWDELOLW\LQWKHFRXQWU\$VD
3
5HIXJHHV DUH SHUVRQV ÀHHLQJ DUPHG FRQÀLFW RU SHUVHFXWLRQ DQG WKH\ DUH GH¿QHG DQG
SURWHFWHGE\LQWHUQDWLRQDOODZ0LJUDQWV FKRRVH WRPRYHQRWEHFDXVHRIDGLUHFWWKUHDWRI
SHUVHFXWLRQRUGHDWKEXWPDLQO\WRLPSURYHWKHLUOLYHVE\¿QGLQJZRUNRULQVRPHFDVHVIRU
HGXFDWLRQIDPLO\UHXQLRQRURWKHUUHDVRQV8QOLNHUHIXJHHVZKRFDQQRWVDIHO\UHWXUQKRPH
PLJUDQWVIDFHQRVXFKLPSHGLPHQWWRUHWXUQ'H¿QLWLRQE\81+&5>@
)URQWH[ LV DQ (8 DJHQF\ PDQDJLQJ WKH FRRSHUDWLRQ EHWZHHQ QDWLRQDO ERUGHU
JXDUGVVHFXULQJLWVH[WHUQDOERUGHUV
6HSWHPEHUIDLU\WDOHLVDUHIHUHQFHWRWKHVXPPHUIDLU\WDOHDV*HUPDQ\KRVWHGWKH
VRFFHU:RUOG&XSDQGVXUSULVHGWKHZRUOGZLWKLWVJHQHURVLW\DQGKRVSLWDOLW\
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
UHVXOWWKH*HUPDQSROLWLFDOVFHQHLVFXUUHQWO\XQGHUJRLQJDVLJQL¿FDQWFKDQJH
VHH)LJXUHDQG)LJXUH2QWKHRQHKDQGERWK$QJHOD0HUNHODQGWKH
FRDOLWLRQ JRYHUQPHQW RI &'8&68 DQG 63' DUH IDFLQJ DQ XQSUHFHGHQWHG
GHFOLQHLQWKHLUDSSURYDOUDWLQJVDQGRQWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHULJKWZLQJSRSXOLVW
$OWHUQDWLYH IRU *HUPDQ\ LV EHFRPLQJ D UHOHYDQW SROLWLFDO IRUFH EULQJLQJ
*HUPDQ\¶VHUDRIPRGHUDWLRQDQGFRQYHUJHQFHWRDQHQG
)LJXUH
$SSURYDOUDWLQJVRI*HUPDQSROLWLFDOSDUWLHV-XQH±-XQH
ƉƉƌŽǀĂůƌĂƟŶŐƐŽĨ'ĞƌŵĂŶƉŽůŝƟĐĂůƉĂƌƟĞƐ
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
CDU/CSU
SPD
GRÜNE
FDP
LINKE
AfD
6RXUFH>@
7KH(QGRIWKH0HUNHO(UD"
:LWK PRUH WKDQ WHQ \HDUV LQ SRZHU DV RI -XQH $QJHOD 0HUNHO LV
FRQVLGHUHG WR EH WKH PRVW SRZHUIXO ZRPDQ RQ WKH SODQHW >@ +HU VXFFHVV
KDV XVXDOO\ EHHQ DVFULEHG WR KHU PDQDJHULDO TXDOLWLHV FRRO SUDJPDWLVP DQG
LGHRORJLFDOÀH[LELOLW\+HUDSSHDODPRQJYRWHUVKDVEHHQDWWULEXWHGWRWKHJHQHUDO
VDWLVIDFWLRQ ZLWK HFRQRPLF DFKLHYHPHQWV RI KHU JRYHUQPHQWV DQG WKH QHZ
7KHUHLVDGHEDWHDPRQJVFKRODUVKRZWRODEHOWKH$I'VHH&KDSWHU
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
SURPLQHQFHRI*HUPDQ\RQWKHJOREDOVWDJH+RZHYHUKHUFDUHIXOO\FXOWLYDWHG
LPDJHRIDJRRGPDQDJHUDQGDVWHDG\DQGLQFRUUXSWLEOHOHDGHU>@KDVUHFHQWO\
EHFRPH RYHUVKDGRZHG E\ KHU LQFRPSOLDQW VWDQFH RQ WKH LVVXH RI UHIXJHHV
*HUPDQ\¶VKXPDQHJHVWXUHLQHDUO\6HSWHPEHUWROHWPLJUDQWVVWUDQGHGLQ
+XQJDU\WRWUDYHOWR*HUPDQ\LQLWLDOO\SURYRNHGDZDYHRIV\PSDWK\EXWVKRUWO\
DIWHUDVWURQJGRPHVWLFDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOEDFNODVKDJDLQVW0HUNHO¶VXQZDYHULQJ
VWDQFHIROORZHG>@(YHQVRPHRIKHUFULWLFVDFNQRZOHGJHWKDW$QJHOD0HUNHO
PDGHDEROGDQGKXPDQLWDULDQJHVWXUHEXWRQWKHRWKHUKDQGWKH\DFFXVHKHU
RIEHLQJXQUHDVRQDEOHDQGQDwYH,WLVDVWUDQJHLURQ\DQGDQLQH[SOLFDEOHWZLVW
LQ $QJHOD 0HUNHO¶V SROLWLFDO FDUHHU 7KH ZRPDQ ZLWK WKH LPDJH RI D VRXQG
PDQDJHUDQGÀH[LEOHSUDJPDWLVWLVQRZEHLQJDFFXVHGRIPLVPDQDJLQJWKHFULVLV
ORVLQJ FRQWURO RYHU WKH VLWXDWLRQ DQG LJQRULQJ WKH JURZLQJ GLVLOOXVLRQPHQW RI
*HUPDQV$OZD\VEHLQJPRFNHGIRUKHUREVHVVLRQZLWKSXEOLFRSLQLRQSROOVRQ
WKH *HUPDQ HOHFWRUDWH¶V IHHOLQJV VKH HYHQ VHHPV XQLPSUHVVHG E\ KHU UDSLGO\
GHFOLQLQJSRSXODULW\VHH)LJXUH$WWKHEHJLQQLQJRIKHUWKLUGWHUPDV*HUPDQ
&KDQFHOORURI*HUPDQVHPEUDFHGWKHIDFWWKDWVKHKDVUHVXPHGWKLVSRVLWLRQ
>@:KLOHLQWKH¿UVW\HDURIKHUWKLUGWHUPKHUDYHUDJHDSSURYDOUDWLQJVZHUH
LQWKH\GHFOLQHGWR7KHDYHUDJHYDOXHRIKHUKLWKHUWRDSSURYDO
UDWLQJVLQ-DQXDU\±-XQHLVRQO\DURXQG>@
)LJXUH
6DWLVIDFWLRQZLWKWKHZRUNRI&KDQFHOORU0HUNHO)HEUXDU\±-XQH
Approval raKngs of Angela Merkel
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
6RXUFH>@
JUN-16
APR-16
MAY-16
FEB-16
MAR-16
JAN-16
DEC-15
NOV-15
SEP-15
OCT-15
JUL-15
AUG-15
JUN-15
APR-15
MAY-15
FEB-15
MAR-15
JAN-15
DEC-14
NOV-14
SEP-14
OCT-14
JUL-14
AUG-14
JUN-14
APR-14
FEB-14
MAR-14
0
MAY-14
10
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
3ULRUWRWKHUHIXJHHFULVLV0HUNHOKDVEHHQRIWHQFULWLFLVHGE\PHGLDDQG
SROLWLFDORSSRQHQWVIRUKHUZDLWDQGVHHSROLF\$OZD\VZDWFKLQJKHUZRUGV
XVLQJYDJXHSKUDVHVDQGQRQFRPPLWWDOVWDWHPHQWVLQWHQWLRQDOO\QRWVD\LQJ
ZKDW VKH VWDQGV IRU WRR VRRQ +HQFH WKH VXUSULVH ZKHQ VKH DQQRXQFHG LQ
6HSWHPEHUWKDW³ZHFDQPDQDJHLW´+RZHYHUWKLVSKUDVHFRXOGFRVWKHU
WKHIRXUWKWHUPLQRI¿FH+HUSXEOLFDSSURYDOUDWLQJVFRQWLQXHWRIDOOWRJHWKHU
ZLWK WKH VLQNLQJ VXSSRUW IRU &'8 +HU TXDUUHO ZLWK +RUVW 6HHKRIHU KHDG
RIWKH&KULVWLDQ6RFLDO8QLRQ&68WKH&'8¶V%DYDULDQVLVWHUSDUW\KDV
UHDFKHGDGDQJHURXVOHYHO6HHKRIHUHYHQWKUHDWHQHGWRWDNHWKHJRYHUQPHQW
WRFRXUWLILWGRHVQRWDGRSWPHDVXUHVWROLPLWWKHÀRZRIPLJUDQWV>@
)URP WKH RQVHW RI WKH FULVLV 0HUNHO DUJXHG WKDW DFFHSWLQJ UHIXJHHV LV
DPDWWHURIPRUDODQGOHJDOREOLJDWLRQRQWKHSDUWRI*HUPDQ\*HUPDQ\¶V
DV\OXP SUDFWLFH LV EDVHG RQ DUWLFOH D RI WKH *UXQGJHVHW] %DVLF /DZ
IRU WKH )HGHUDO 5HSXEOLF RI *HUPDQ\ >@ ZKLFK VWDWHV 3DUDJUDSK WKDW ³SHUVRQV SHUVHFXWHG RQ SROLWLFDO JURXQGV KDYH WKH ULJKW RI DV\OXP´
+RZHYHU 3DUDJUDSK RI WKLV DUWLFOH DOVR VWDWHV WKDW WKH ULJKW RI DV\OXP
³PD\ QRW EH LQYRNHG E\ D SHUVRQ ZKR HQWHUV WKH IHGHUDO WHUULWRU\ IURP D
PHPEHUVWDWHRIWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPXQLWLHVRUIURPDQRWKHUWKLUGVWDWHLQ
ZKLFKDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKH&RQYHQWLRQ5HODWLQJWRWKH6WDWXVRI5HIXJHHVDQG
RI WKH &RQYHQWLRQ IRU WKH 3URWHFWLRQ RI +XPDQ 5LJKWV DQG )XQGDPHQWDO
)UHHGRPVLVDVVXUHG´7KLVLVLQOLQHZLWKWKH'XEOLQ,,,5HJXODWLRQEDVHG
RQ WKH SULQFLSOH WKDW WKH ¿UVW 0HPEHU 6WDWH ZKHUH ¿QJHUSULQWV DUH VWRUHG
RU DQ DV\OXP FODLP LV ORGJHG LV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU D SHUVRQ¶V DV\OXP FODLP
+RZHYHU *HUPDQ\ GHFLGHG WR XVH WKH GHURJDWLRQ SRVVLELOLW\ RI $UWLFOH
RI WKH 'XEOLQ ,,, 5HJXODWLRQ 7KLV DUWLFOH JLYHV DQ\ PHPEHU VWDWH WKH
SRVVLELOLW\ ³WR GHURJDWH IURP WKH UHVSRQVLELOLW\ FULWHULD LQ SDUWLFXODU RQ
KXPDQLWDULDQDQGFRPSDVVLRQDWHJURXQGV´>@
0HUNHO KDV UHSHDWHG FRXQWOHVV WLPHV WKDW DQ $XIQDKPHVWRSS XSSHU
FHLOLQJRQLPPLJUDWLRQGRHVQRWFRPHLQWRTXHVWLRQDQGWKHVDPHVWDQGVIRU
EXLOGLQJIHQFHVRQQDWLRQDOERUGHUV$FFRUGLQJWR$QJHOD0HUNHOWKHRQO\
ZD\WRVROYHWKHFULVLVLVUHGXFLQJWKHQXPEHURIQHZLPPLJUDQWVDUULYLQJ
LQ*HUPDQ\LQRUGHUWRUHOLHYHWKHRYHUVWUHWFKHGFDSDFLWLHVLQ*HUPDQFLWLHV
DQG WR FRQFHQWUDWH RQ WKH FKDOOHQJLQJ SURFHVV RI LQWHJUDWLQJ WKRVH ZKR
DOUHDG\DUULYHG$FFRUGLQJWR$QJHOD0HUNHOVHDOLQJRIIERUGHUVZRXOGQRW
MXVW EH LQHIIHFWXDO EXW ZRXOG DOVR UHSUHVHQW WKH HQG RI WKH (XURSHDQ LGHDO
>@ ,QVWHDG VKH LV FRQVWDQWO\ XUJLQJ IRU PRUH FRRSHUDWLRQ DQG VROLGDULW\
ZLWKLQ (XURSH DQG VWUHVVLQJ WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI LPSURYLQJ WKH VLWXDWLRQ LQ
WKH FULVLVVKDNHQ KRPH FRXQWULHV RI WKH UHIXJHHV DV ZHOO DV LQ WKH UHIXJHH
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
FDPSVLQWKHQHLJKERXULQJFRXQWULHV,QRUGHUWRDFKLHYHWKDWVKHSURSRVHG
DTXRWDV\VWHPWRGLVWULEXWHDV\OXPVHHNHUVDPRQJDOO(8PHPEHUFRXQWULHV
DQGLQLWLDWHGDQDJUHHPHQWEHWZHHQWKH(8DQG7XUNH\DLPHGDWHQGLQJWKH
LUUHJXODUPLJUDWLRQIURP7XUNH\WRWKH(81RQHWKHOHVVDVNLQJ7XUNH\IRU
KHOSKDVDSROLWLFDODQGD¿QDQFLDOSULFHZKLFKLVTXLWHKLJKIRUVRPHRIKHU
SDUWQHUVLQWKH(8HYHQXQDFFHSWDEOH3ULRUWRWKHFULVLV$QJHOD0HUNHOLWVHOI
XVHGWRFULWLFLVH7XUNH\IRULWVEDGKXPDQULJKWVUHFRUG+RZHYHUVKHKDGWR
UHVSRQGWR7XUNLVKUHTXLUHPHQWVLQRUGHUWRVORZGRZQWKHWLGHRIPLJUDQWV
IURP7XUNLVKUHIXJHHFDPSV7KHVHUHTXLUHPHQWVLQFOXGHGVL[ELOOLRQHXURVLQ
IXQGVXQEORFNLQJRIVRPHFKDSWHUVLQ7XUNH\¶V(8PHPEHUVKLSQHJRWLDWLRQV
DQGDYLVDIUHHDFFHVVIRUWRWKH6FKHQJHQERUGHUIUHHDUHDDWWKHODWHVWE\
WKHHQGRI-XQH>@+RZHYHUWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIWKHUHIXJHHSDFW
EHWZHHQ WKH (8 DQG7XUNH\ LV HQGDQJHUHG DV7XUNH\ UHIXVHV WR FKDQJH LWV
DQWLWHUURUOHJLVODWLRQZKLFKLVDUHTXLUHPHQWRQWKHSDUWRIWKH(8LQRUGHUWR
VWDUWWKHSURFHVVRIYLVDOLEHUDOLVDWLRQ
$QJHOD 0HUNHO LV XQGHU WUHPHQGRXV SUHVVXUH 1HYHUWKHOHVV D WDFWLFDO
UHWUHDWIURPKHUSRVLWLRQLVKLJKO\LPSODXVLEOH6KHKDVUHSHDWHGO\SRLQWHGRXW
WKDWVKHFRQVLGHUVWKHKDQGOLQJRIWKHUHIXJHHFULVLVEHLQJQRWRQO\DSUDFWLFDO
TXHVWLRQEXW¿UVWDQGIRUHPRVWDTXHVWLRQRI(XURSHDQYDOXHV³,IDFRQWLQHQW
OLNH(XURSHZLWKPLOOLRQSHRSOHLVQRWFDSDEOHRIWDNLQJLQRQHPLOOLRQ
6\ULDQVSHUKDSVWHPSRUDULO\WKHQWKDWLVQRWLQOLQHZLWKRXUYDOXHV´VDLG
0HUNHOFLWLQJH[DPSOHVRIFRXQWULHVZKLFKKDYHVKHOWHUHGHYHQPRUHUHIXJHHV
WKDQ*HUPDQ\OLNH/HEDQRQ-RUGDQRU7XUNH\>@6KHFRQWLQXHVWRUHMHFWWKH
SURSRVDOV PDGH E\ KHU RSSRQHQWV ZLWK WKH DUJXPHQW WKDW WKH\ VLPSO\ ZLOO
QRW ZRUN )XUWKHUPRUH WKH\ FRXOG VSDUN WKH SURFHVV RI GLVPDQWOLQJ RI WKH
6FKHQJHQDUHDERUGHUIUHHWUDYHOUHJLPH
6RPHWLPHV WKH FDVH RI WKH (QHUJLHZHQGH HQHUJ\ WUDQVLWLRQ LV XVHG DV
DQH[DPSOHRI0HUNHO¶VDELOLW\WRFKDQJHFRPSOHWHO\KHUSROLF\ZKHQIDFLQJ
SXEOLF RSSRVLWLRQ DQG LPSRUWDQW UHJLRQDO HOHFWLRQV $IWHU WKH )XNXVKLPD
3RZHU 3ODQW GLVDVWHU RI VKH PDGH D VXUSULVLQJ WZLVW DQG DQQRXQFHG
*HUPDQ\¶VUHWUHDWIURPQXFOHDUHQHUJ\E\7KLVGHFLVLRQZDVDUDGLFDO
UHYHUVDORIKHUSUHYLRXVSROLF\DVVKHKDGDQQRXQFHGWRH[WHQGWKHOLIHVSDQRI
QXFOHDUSRZHUSODQWV௅ZLWKWKHODVWVFKHGXOHGWRJRRIÀLQH>@0HUNHO
LQVLVWHG RQ KHU GHFLVLRQ GHVSLWH WKH FULWLFLVP IRU LWV LPSDFW RQ FRPPHUFLDO
7KH(8DQG7XUNH\DJUHHGWKDWDOOQHZLUUHJXODUPLJUDQWVFURVVLQJIURP7XUNH\WRWKH*UHHN
LVODQGVDVRI0DUFKZLOOEHUHWXUQHGWR7XUNH\+RZHYHUIRUHYHU\6\ULDQEHLQJUHWXUQHG
WR7XUNH\IURPWKH*UHHNLVODQGVDQRWKHU6\ULDQZLOOEHUHVHWWOHGWRWKH(80RUHGHWDLOVDERXWWKH
DJUHHPHQWFDQEHIRXQGKHUHKWWSHXURSDHXUDSLGSUHVVUHOHDVHB0(02BHQKWP>@
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
DQGGRPHVWLFHQHUJ\ELOOV+RZHYHUWKLVWLPHLWLVGLIIHUHQW7KHGRPHVWLF
GLVFRQWHQW ZLWK WKH ZD\ VKH LV KDQGOLQJ WKH UHIXJHH FULVLV LV LQFRPSDUDEO\
KLJKHUWKDQLQWKHFDVHRIWKHSURWHVWVDJDLQVWQXFOHDUHQHUJ\0RUHRYHUWKH
FODVKZLWK&HQWUDO(XURSHDQFRXQWULHVRYHUPLJUDQWVLVELJJHUWKDQWKHHDUOLHU
FODVKZLWK6RXWKHUQ(XURSHDQFRXQWULHVRYHUDXVWHULW\PHDVXUHVGXULQJWKH
(XURFULVLV0HUNHOKRZHYHUVKRZVRQO\OLWWOHZLOOLQJQHVVWREDFNGRZQWKLV
WLPH<HWHYHQVKHFDQQRWHQGXUHWKHULVLQJSUHVVXUHIRUHYHU$VWKHVXFFHVVRI
KHUSODQLVGHSHQGHQWRQH[WHUQDOIDFWRUVWKHHQGRIZDULQ6\ULDFRRSHUDWLRQ
ZLWK7XUNH\KHUIDWHLVQRWLQKHURZQKDQGVDQ\PRUH:LWKSUDFWLFDOO\QR
DOOLHVOHIWLQ(XURSHVKHFDQRQO\FRXQWRQWKHVXFFHVVRI6\ULDSHDFHWDONV
DQGLVDWWKHVDPHWLPHRQWKHPHUF\RI7XUNLVKSUHVLGHQW(UGRJDQ+RZHYHU
KHU DXWKRULW\ KDV GHFOLQHG PDVVLYHO\ DQG KHU YRWHUV DUH ORVLQJ SDWLHQFH ,Q
)HEUXDU\RIWKRVHVXUYH\HGVDLGWKDWWKH*HUPDQJRYHUQPHQWGLG
QRWKDYHWKHVLWXDWLRQXQGHUFRQWURO>@
0HUNHO¶VVWXEERUQQHVVRYHUWKHUHIXJHHSROLF\KDVSURPSWHGVSHFXODWLRQ
DERXW KHU SROLWLFDO IXWXUH $V SHRSOH DUH LQFUHDVLQJO\ TXHVWLRQLQJ KHU
FRPSHWHQFHWKHSRVVLELOLW\RIKHUUHVLJQDWLRQLVEHLQJGLVFXVVHG,WLVRQO\
LQGLFDWLYHRIKHUVWURQJSRVLWLRQWKDWWKHVHGLVFXVVLRQVDUHVWLOOVXUSULVLQJO\
UDUHLIWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWWKHVHULRXVQHVVRIWKHVLWXDWLRQ7KLVLVREYLRXVO\WKH
UHVXOWRIWKHIDFWWKDWWKHUHLVQRDSSDUHQWVXFFHVVRULQVLJKW'XULQJWKHGHFDGH
LQ SRZHU $QJHOD 0HUNHO HOLPLQDWHG SUDFWLFDOO\ HYHU\ SRVVLEOH FRQWHQGHU
:DLWLQJIRUWKHLUPLVWDNHVVKHKDGQRWKHVLWDWHGDVHFRQGWRRXVWWKHPIURP
SRZHU7RGD\WKHVWUHQJWKRIWKH&'8LVGH¿QHGWKURXJKWKHSRSXODULW\RI
$QJHOD0HUNHO(YHQQRZZKHQWKHLQQHUSDUW\UHEHOOLRQLVJURZLQJWKHUHLV
QRQHZOHDGHULQVLJKW$QJHOD0HUNHOZDVWKHSDUW\¶VUHFLSHIRUVXFFHVVQRZ
VKHFRXOGWXUQRXWWREHFRPHDEXUGHQ
7KHVROLGSHUIRUPDQFHRI*HUPDQHFRQRP\௅XQHPSOR\PHQWDWDUHFRUG
ORZDQGWKHODUJHVWEXGJHWVXUSOXVVLQFHUHXQL¿FDWLRQLQ௅ZRXOGXQGHU
GLIIHUHQW FLUFXPVWDQFHV FUHDWH DQ LGHDO SUHGLVSRVLWLRQ IRU D IRXUWK WHUP RI
$QJHOD0HUNHO$PLGVWWKHUHIXJHHFULVLVQRERG\UHDOO\FDUHV0HUNHOKDV
EHHQ DEDQGRQHG E\ KHU (XURSHDQ QHLJKERXUV VKH IDFHV D UHEHOOLRQ LQ KHU
RZQSDUW\DQGKHUSXEOLFLPDJHLVGHWHULRUDWLQJ(YHQDOHDGHUVXFKDV$QJHOD
0HUNHOZLOOQRWEHDEOHWRVXUYLYHVXFKDPDVVLYHHURVLRQRIKHUDXWKRULW\LQ
WKHORQJUXQ$SRVVLEOHIDLOXUHRIWKH(87XUNH\GHDOZRXOGEHDPDVVLYH
VHWEDFNIRUWKH*HUPDQ&KDQFHOORU$QJHOD0HUNHOKDVHDUQHGDUHSXWDWLRQIRU
PDVWHULQJDOORIWKHSDVWFULVHV+RZHYHUHYHQWKHPRVWSRZHUIXOGHPRFUDWLF
OHDGHUVDUHRXVWHGZKHQWKH\ORVHWKHDELOLW\WRZLQHOHFWLRQV
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
$OWHUQDWLYHIRU*HUPDQ\±WKH(QGRI0RGHUDWLRQLQ*HUPDQ3ROLWLFV"
,Q*HUPDQ\WKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWUDGLWLRQDOFOHDYDJHVRIFODVVDQGUHOLJLRQKDVEHHQ
IDGLQJVLQFHWKHVDVDUHVXOWRIPDMRUVRFLDODQGHFRQRPLFSURFHVVHVVXFKDV
VHFXODULVDWLRQDQGGHLQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQ>@,QWKHSRVWXQL¿FDWLRQSHULRGDWHUULWRULDO
FOHDYDJH:HVWYV(DVW*HUPDQ\HPHUJHG>@EXWKDVDOVREHHQEOXUUHGWRVRPH
H[WHQWZLWKWKHSDUW\'LH/LQNH7KH/HIWPDNLQJOLPLWHGLQURDGVLQWKHROGIHGHUDO
VWDWHV7KHVKLIWLQWKHRYHUDOOFOHDYDJHVWUXFWXUHZDVDFFRPSDQLHGE\WKHGHFOLQHLQ
WKHYRWHUWXUQRXWDQGSDUWLVDQVKLSLQ*HUPDQ\>@*HUPDQPDLQVWUHDPSDUWLHVKDYH
DGDSWHGWRWKHLQFUHDVLQJSHUVRQDOLVDWLRQRIWKHSDUW\FRPSHWLWLRQ>@7KHFXOWRI
SHUVRQDOLW\WKDWKDVHPHUJHGDURXQG$QJHOD0HUNHOKDVGRZQJUDGHGWKHLPSRUWDQFH
RI&'8DVDSDUW\DQGRIWKHSDUW\SURJUDPPH¶VGLVWLQFWLYHQHVV>@7KLVVWUDWHJ\
KDVEHHQKLJKO\VXFFHVVIXOIRU0HUNHOEXWLWLVDOVRYHU\FRQWURYHUVLDO7KH³V\VWHP
0HUNHO´KDVEHHQGHVFULEHGDVDWDFWLFRIGHPRELOLVDWLRQDQGGHSROLWLVDWLRQ>@
2XWÀDQNLQJKHUSROLWLFDOULYDOV0HUNHOOHIWOLWWOHVSDFHIRUGHEDWH6KHKDVEHHQ
EODPHGIRUGHVWUR\LQJWKHGHPRFUDWLFFXOWXUHRI¿JKWLQJDQGDUJXLQJLQ*HUPDQ\
+RZHYHUWKHLGHRORJLFDOFRQYHUJHQFHRIPDLQVWUHDPSDUWLHVFDQDOVRSURYRNH
D SRSXOLVW DQWLHOLWLVW EDFNODVK 3RSXOLVP PRELOLVHV SHRSOH ³DJDLQVW ERWK WKH
HVWDEOLVKHGVWUXFWXUHRISRZHUDQGWKHGRPLQDQWLGHDVDQGYDOXHVRIWKHVRFLHW\´
>@,QFRPSDULVRQWRRWKHU:HVWHUQ(XURSHDQFRXQWULHV*HUPDQ\KDVORQJUHVLVWHG
WKHWHPSWDWLRQRI³WKHSRSXOLVW=HLWJHLVW´KRZHYHUWKHULVLQJGLVFRQWHQWRYHUWKH
HXUREDLORXWSROLFLHVRIWKH&KULVWLDQOLEHUDOFDELQHWFUHDWHGDIDYRUDEOHHQYLURQPHQW
IRUDQHZSURWHVWSDUW\$OWHUQDWLYHIRU*HUPDQ\ZDVDQDQVZHUWRWKHSURFODLPHG
$OWHUQDWLYORVLJNHLWRIWKHEDLORXWSDFNDJHV:KHUHDVWKHFULWLFLVPDEURDGIRFXVHGRQ
VWULFWDXVWHULW\PHDVXUHVLPSRVHGRQ*UHHFHDQGRWKHUDIIHFWHGFRXQWULHVWKHNH\
SRLQWRIFRQFHUQLQ*HUPDQ\ZDVWKDWWKHFRXQWU\FRXOGEHFRPHDSD\PDVWHUZLWKLQ
DWUDQVIHUXQLRQWKDWKDGQHYHUEHHQHQYLVDJHGLQWKH0DDVWULFKW7UHDW\:LWKDOO
PDLQVWUHDPSDUWLHVIROORZLQJWKHVWURQJSUR(XURSHDQGLFWXPRI*HUPDQSROLWLFVWKH
$I'RIIHUHGDQDOWHUQDWLYHIRUWKRVHZKRTXHVWLRQHGWKHFRQVHQVXVRIDQ³HYHUFORVHU
XQLRQ´,QPDQ\(XURSHDQFRXQWULHVWKHLVVXHRI(XURSHDQLQWHJUDWLRQKDVDOUHDG\
EHHQRQHRIWKHGULYHUVRIWKHDOOHJHGQHZFOHDYDJHRQJOREDOLVDWLRQ>@EXWLWKDV
EHHQVRPHWKLQJQHZLQ*HUPDQ\7KHSDUW\LPPHGLDWHO\DWWUDFWHGJUHDWDWWHQWLRQLQ
PHGLDZLWKLWVFDOOIRUGLVPDQWOLQJWKH(XUR]RQH>@,QWKHIHGHUDOHOHFWLRQWKH
$I'RQO\QDUURZO\PLVVHGWKHWKUHVKROGIRUHQWHULQJWKH%XQGHVWDJQHYHUWKHOHVV
YRWH ZDV FRQVLGHUHG DV D JUHDW VXFFHVV IRU D SDUW\ HVWDEOLVKHG RQO\ VHYHQ
PRQWKVEHIRUHWKHHOHFWLRQ,Q(XURSHDQSDUOLDPHQWHOHFWLRQWKH$I'FDPHLQ
¿IWKSODFHZLWKRIWKHQDWLRQDOYRWHDQGWKHSDUW\ZDVDOVRVXFFHVVIXOLQHYHU\
VXEVHTXHQWVWDWHHOHFWLRQLQ6D[RQ\7KXULQJLD%UDQGHQEXUJ+DPEXUJ%UHPHQ
6D[RQ\$QKDOW5KLQHODQG3DODWLQDWHDQG%DGHQ:UWWHPEHUJ
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
+RZHYHU LQ WKH ¿UVW \HDUV RI LWV H[LVWHQFH WKH $I' KDG XQGHUJRQH D
FRQVLGHUDEOHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ7KHSDUW\ZDVLQ¿OWUDWHGE\SHRSOHIURPWKHIDU
ULJKW VFHQH DQG PHPEHUV RI XQVXFFHVVIXO SRSXOLVW UDGLFDO ULJKW SDUWLHV$Q
LQQHU¿JKWEHWZHHQWKHPRGHUDWHOLEHUDOIDFWLRQDQGDQDWLRQDOLVWFRQVHUYDWLYH
ZLQJHUXSWHG7KHLQ¿JKWLQJFXOPLQDWHGLQVXPPHUZKHQWKHPRGHUDWHV
DURXQG%HUQG/XFNHZHUHGHIHDWHGE\WKHQDWLRQDOFRQVHUYDWLYHZLQJDURXQG
)UDXNH3HWU\ZKREHFDPHWKHQHZSDUW\OHDGHU%HUQG/XFNHDQGKLVVXSSRUWHUV
OHIWWKHSDUW\LQSURWHVWDJDLQVWLWVULJKWZDUGVKLIW7KHSDUW\¶VVKLIWWRWKHULJKW
KDVEHHQHYLGHQWHVSHFLDOO\LQWKHUKHWRULFRIVHYHUDOSDUW\UHSUHVHQWDWLYHV,Q
1RYHPEHUWKH$I'KDGWRUHEXNH%M|UQ+RFNHRQHRILWVPRVWSRSXODU
UHJLRQDO ¿JXUHV8 IRU KLV ERUGHUOLQH UDFLVW UHPDUNV RQ $IULFDQV¶ UHSURGXFWLYH
KDELWV>@$VWKHSDUW\OHDGHU)UDXNH3HWU\KDGVDLGWKDWSROLFHVKRXOGKDYHWKH
ULJKWWRVKRRWLOOHJDOPLJUDQWVDWWKHERUGHU³LIQHFHVVDU\´RXWUDJHGSROLWLFLDQV
HYHQ VXJJHVWHG WR SXW WKH$I' XQGHU WKH VXUYHLOODQFH RI WKH %XQGHVDPW IU
9HUIDVVXQJVVFKXW])HGHUDO2I¿FHIRUWKH3URWHFWLRQRIWKH&RQVWLWXWLRQ
7KH XQFOHDU LGHRORJLFDO DOLJQPHQW RI WKH $I' KDV VR IDU WULJJHUHG PXFK
GLVFXVVLRQRYHUKRZWRSRVLWLRQWKHSDUW\LQWKHSROLWLFDOVSHFWUXP$I'KDVEHHQ
DFFXVHGE\PHGLDDQGSROLWLFDORSSRQHQWVRISURPRWLQJUDGLFDOLGHDV6FKRODUV
KDYHEHHQPRUHFDXWLRXVDUJXLQJZLWKWKHPRGHUDWHSURJUDPPHRIWKHSDUW\VHH
>@RU>@+RZHYHUZLWKULVLQJLQFRQVLVWHQF\EHWZHHQWKHSDUW\SURJUDPPH
DQGUKHWRULFWKHVSHFXODWLRQVDERXWWKHJHQXLQHFKDUDFWHURIWKHSDUW\DUHSLOLQJ
XS,Q*HUPDQ\WKHKLJKOHYHORIVWLJPDWLVDWLRQRIUDGLFDOULJKWSDUWLHVLVRQH
RI WKH PDLQ REVWDFOHV WR WKHLU HOHFWRUDO DQG SROLWLFDO VXFFHVV >@ %HDULQJ LQ
PLQGWKHKLVWRULFDOOHJDF\RIWKH:RUOG:DU,,*HUPDQYRWHUVKDYHEHHQVK\
WR FDVW EDOORWV IRU D IDUULJKW SDUW\ >@ ([WUHPH DQG UDGLFDO IRUFHV VXFK DV
1HR1D]L1DWLRQDO'HPRFUDWLF3DUW\13'WKHQDWLRQDOLVW*HUPDQ3HRSOH¶V
3DUW\'98RUWKHSRSXOLVWUDGLFDOULJKWSDUW\7KH5HSXEOLFDQV5(3KDGEHHQ
LVRODWHG DQG WKHLU HOHFWRUDO DFKLHYHPHQWV ZHUH QRW RI VLJQL¿FDQW LPSRUWDQFH
7KH$I'KRZHYHUKDVEHHQWU\LQJWRGLVWDQFHLWVHOIIURPWKHIDUULJKWPLOLHX
7KHGHFODUHGDLPRIWKHIRUPHUSDUW\OHDGHU%HUQG/XFNHZDVWREXLOGDQRQ
LGHRORJLFDOFLYLFSDUW\ZLWKDOLEHUDOHFRQRPLFSURJUDPPH1HYHUWKHOHVVWKH
SDUW\DWWUDFWHGPDQ\PHPEHUVIURPWKHIDUULJKWPLOLHX>@DQGDOVREHFDPH
DQDOWHUQDWLYHIRUWKRVHZKRFRQVLGHUWKH13'DVWRRH[WUHPLVW:LWKWKH$I'
LQFRUSRUDWLQJDVLJQL¿FDQWQXPEHURISURWHVWYRWHUVWKH13'ZDVQRWDEOHWRIXOO\
H[SORLWWKHPLJUDQWFULVLVDQGLWVDSSURYDOUDWLQJVUHPDLQZLGHO\LQVLJQL¿FDQW
$QRWKHULPSRUWDQWIHDWXUHRI*HUPDQSROLWLFVZDVWKHVWURQJDQGSUDFWLFDOO\
XQDQLPRXVVXSSRUWIRUWKHSURMHFWRI(XURSHDQLQWHJUDWLRQ*HUPDQSROLWLFDO
8
%M|UQ+RFNHLVWKHFKDLUPDQRIWKH$)'¶V7KXULQJLDEUDQFK
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
HOLWHVKDYHEHHQWKHPRVWIHUYHQWVXSSRUWHURIDQ³HYHUFORVHUXQLRQ´*HUPDQ\
KDVDGKHUHGWRWKHVHSULQFLSOHVHYHQLQWLPHVZKHQRWKHU(XURSHDQFRXQWULHV
IDFHGDQXSVXUJHRIH[WUHPHUDGLFDOSRSXOLVWDQG(XURVFHSWLFIRUFHV,QWKH
V LPPLJUDWLRQ EHFDPH D SULRULWL]HG LVVXH LQ:HVWHUQ (XURSHDQ SROLWLFDO
GLVFRXUVH 2I FRXUVH RSSRVLWLRQ WR WKH SROLF\ RI PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP HPHUJHG
LQ *HUPDQ\ DV ZHOO EXW D SDUW\ H[SUHVVLQJ DQWLLPPLJUDQW VHQWLPHQWV KDV
QHYHUHQWHUHGWKH%XQGHVWDJIHGHUDOSDUOLDPHQW7KHVLWXDWLRQFRXOGFKDQJH
IXQGDPHQWDOO\LQWKHZDNHRIWKHPLJUDQWFULVLV$IWHUWKH$I'QHDUO\LPSORGHG
LQVXPPHUPDQ\VDZWKHSDUW\EHFRPH\HWDQRWKHUXQVXFFHVVIXOSRSXOLVW
UDGLFDOULJKWVXEMHFW+RZHYHUWKHVSOLWSDUDGR[LFDOO\GLGQRWPHDQWKHHQG
RIWKH$I'RQWKHFRQWUDU\LWKHOSHGWKHSDUW\WRJHWULGRIDQXQSRSXODUOHDGHU
DQGLQWKHZDNHRIWKHPLJUDQWFULVLVUHIRFXVIURPHXURWRLPPLJUDWLRQLVVXHV
$OWKRXJKRYHUVKDGRZHGE\WKH(XURFULVLVQDUUDWLYHWKH$I'KDGIURPWKHRQVHW
GH¿QHG³LPPLJUDWLRQODZUHIRUP´DVRQHLWVSURJUDPPDWLFSULRULWLHVDQGFDOOHG
IRUDQHQGWR³XQUHJXODWHGLPPLJUDWLRQLQWR*HUPDQVRFLDOVHFXULW\V\VWHPV´
>@7KHPLJUDQW FULVLV FXUUHQWO\ IXHOV LWV SROLWLFDO DPELWLRQV EXW LW ZRXOG EH
PLVOHDGLQJ WR VHH WKH$I' PHUHO\ DV D VLQJOHLVVXH DQWLLPPLJUDWLRQ SDUW\
,WKDVUDWKHUEHFRPHDSODWIRUPIRUGLIIXVHSURWHVWW\SLFDOSRSXOLVWULJKWZLQJ
SDUW\ VXU¿QJ RQ WKH ZDYH RI DQWLHVWDEOLVKPHQW UKHWRULF WKHPXV QDUUDWLYH
FRPSODLQLQJ DERXW WKH UXOLQJ ³OLEHUDO SROLWLFDO FRUUHFWQHVV´ DQG D SHUFHLYHG
H[LVWHQFHRIWDERRLVVXHVZKLFKDUHFRQVLGHUHGWREHXQGHEDWDEOHLQ*HUPDQ\
)LJXUH
$I'DSSURYDOUDWLQJV1RYHPEHU±-XQH
ĨĂƉƉƌŽǀĂůƌĂƟŶŐƐ
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
6RXUFH>@
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
$VSROOVDUHLQGLFDWLQJDVWHDG\LQFUHDVHLQ$I'DSSURYDOUDWLQJVVLQFHWKH
EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH UHIXJHH FULVLV VHH )LJXUH WKH TXHVWLRQ DULVHV ZKHWKHU
WKHSDUW\FRXOGEHFRPHDQHZUHOHYDQWSOD\HULQ*HUPDQ\RULILWLVMXVWD
WHPSRUDU\SKHQRPHQRQSUR¿WLQJIURPWKHSHUFHLYHGPLVPDQDJHPHQWRIWKH
UHIXJHH LQÀX[ 7KH SUREOHP RI LPPLJUDWLRQ KDV WKH SRWHQWLDO WR GRPLQDWH
WKH *HUPDQ SROLWLFDO GLVFRXUVH IRU PDQ\ \HDUV WR FRPH 7KH ODUJHVFDOH
LQWHJUDWLRQRIUHIXJHHVZLOOEHHYHQDJUHDWHUFKDOOHQJHWKDQWKHLQÀX[LWVHOI
,QOLQHZLWKWKHHWKQLFFRPSHWLWLRQWKHVLV>@WKH$I'FDQH[SORLWWKHIHDUVRI
*HUPDQVWKDWEHFDXVHRIWKHLPPLJUDQWVWKH\DUHJRLQJWRIDFHDFRPSHWLWLRQ
RYHUVFDUFHUHVRXUFHV$VSROOVDUHLQGLFDWLQJWKLVVWUDWHJ\SD\VRIIPDLQO\LQ
WKHHDVWHUQ*HUPDQVWDWHV7KHVXSSRUWIRUWKH$I'LVDOPRVWWZLFHDVKLJKLQ
WKHVRFDOOHG³QHZVWDWHV´WKDQLQWKH³ROGVWDWHV´$V)LJXUHLQGLFDWHVWKH
WHUULWRULDOFOHDYDJHLVVWLOOSUHVHQWLQ*HUPDQSROLWLFV
)LJXUH
$I'DSSURYDOUDWLQJVLQ*HUPDQVWDWHV-XQH
Saxony-Anhalt (E)
Brandenburg (E)
Mecklenburg-Western Pomorania
Baden-Würbemberg (W)
Thuringia (E)
Saxony (E)
ZŚŝŶĞůĂŶĚͲWĂůĂƟŶĂƚĞ;tͿ
North Rhine-Westphalia (W)
Saarland (W)
Bremen (W)
Hesse (W)
Schleswig-Holstein (W)
Bavaria (W)
Hamburg (W)
Berlin (W)
Lower Saxony (W)
ĨĂƉƉƌŽǀĂůƌĂƟŶŐƐ
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
(VWDQGVIRUDQHDVWHUQVWDWH:VWDQGVIRUDZHVWHUQVWDWH
6RXUFH>@
+RZHYHU WKH DSSHDO RI WKH $I' LV QRW EDVHG RQ LPPLJUDWLRQ LVVXHV
RQO\ ,W IHHGV XSRQ EURDGHU IHHOLQJV RI IUXVWUDWLRQ DQG LQVHFXULW\ DQG LV D
UHDFWLRQWRWKHJHQHUDOGLVHQFKDQWPHQWZLWKSROLWLFVLQ*HUPDQLWLVFDOOHG
3ROLWLNYHUGURVVHQKHLW ,W VHHPV WKDW WKHVH DUH IDYRXUDEOH FRQGLWLRQV IRU D
SDUW\WREHVXFFHVVIXOLQHOHFWRUDOWHUPV
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
7KH VKLIW LQ HOHFWRUDO SUHIHUHQFHV ZDV FRQ¿UPHG LQ 0DUFK DV ORFDO
HOHFWLRQV ZHUH KHOG LQ WKUHH *HUPDQ VWDWHV 6D[RQ\$QKDOW 5KLQHODQG
3DODWLQDWH %DGHQ:UWWHPEHUJ :KLOH &KDQFHOORU 0HUNHO¶V &KULVWLDQ
'HPRFUDWV&'8VXIIHUHGSDLQIXOGHIHDWVWKH$I'HQWHUHGVWDWHSDUOLDPHQWV
ZLWKVLJQL¿FDQWJDLQV,Q6D[RQ\$QKDOWDQHDVWHUQVWDWHWKH$I'ZRQ
RIWKHYRWHDQGFDPHVHFRQG,Q%DGHQ:UWWHPEHUJDQG5KLQHODQG3DODWLQDWH
WKH$I' FDPH WKLUG ZLWK DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\ >@ 'HPRVFRSLF
GDWDVKRZWKDWWKH$I'ZDVDEOHWRDWWUDFWPDQ\IRUPHUQRQYRWHUVEXWDOVR
IRUPHUYRWHUVRIWKHHVWDEOLVKHGSDUWLHVPDLQO\IURP&'8&686XUSULVLQJO\
LQ WKH HDVWHUQ VWDWH RI 6D[RQ\$QKDOW WKH SDUW\ ZDV HYHQ DEOH WR SHUVXDGH
PDQ\ IRUPHU YRWHUV RI WKH 'LH /LQNH D SRSXOLVW OHIW SDUW\ >@7KLV FRXOG
LQGLFDWHWKDW'LH/LQNHLVORVLQJLWVDSSHDORIDSURWHVWDQWLHVWDEOLVKPHQWSDUW\
WRWKH$I'7KHQXPEHURI SHRSOHYRWLQJIRU$I' RXWRIGLVDSSRLQWPHQWLV
VLJQL¿FDQWDQGULVLQJ,QIHGHUDOHOHFWLRQLWZDVRIYRWHUV>@LQ
WKHORFDOHOHFWLRQLQ0DUFKLWZDVLQ5KLQHODQG3DODWLQDWH
LQ%DGHQ:UWWHPEHUJDQGHYHQLQ6D[RQ\$QKDOW>@7KHVXUYH\E\
,QIUDWHVWGLPDSDOVRUHYHDOHGWKDWPDQ\$I'YRWHUVLQ6D[RQ\$QKDOW
LQ %DGHQ:UWWHPEHUJ DQG HYHQ LQ 5KLQHODQG3DODWLQDWH ZRXOG
DSSUHFLDWHWKHSRVVLELOLW\RIYRWLQJIRUWKH&68௅WKH%DYDULDQVLVWHUSDUW\RI
WKH&'8ZKLFKLVRSSRVLQJ&KDQFHOORU0HUNHO¶VVWDQFHRQPLJUDWLRQ>@
3URWHVW YRWLQJ LV QRW D *HUPDQ SKHQRPHQRQ LW LV DQ RYHUDOO (XURSHDQ
WUHQGWKDW*HUPDQ\KDVORQJUHVLVWHG:LWK$I'*HUPDQYRWHUVKDYHIRXQG
D SODWIRUP IRU H[SUHVVLQJ WKHLU JHQHUDO GLVHQFKDQWPHQW ZLWK SROLWLFV :H
FRXOGHYHQVSHDNRIDQHZW\SHRIFOHDYDJHHPHUJLQJLQ*HUPDQ\GLYLGLQJ
WKH VRFLHW\ LQ OLQH ZLWK 0XGGH¶V GH¿QLWLRQ RI WKH SRSXOLVW LGHRORJ\ LQWR
WZR DQWDJRQLVWLF DQG KRPRJHQRXV JURXSV ± WKH FRUUXSW HOLWH DQG WKH SXUH
SHRSOH>@+RZHYHULWZLOOEHGLI¿FXOWIRU$I'WRWUDQVIRUPLWVHOHFWRUDO
DFKLHYHPHQWV SURWHVW GULYHQ E\ D GLIIXVH SURWHVW LQWR SROLWLFDO UHOHYDQFH LQ
*HUPDQ\ZKLFKLVYHU\KRVWLOHWRSRSXOLVWUDGLFDOLGHDV&XUUHQWO\WKH$I'
LVGHQRXQFHGE\DOOUHOHYDQWSDUWLHV$VDUHVXOWRILWVUDGLFDOLVDWLRQWKH$I'
KDVFRPSOHWHO\ORVWLWVFRDOLWLRQSRWHQWLDOWKXVLWZLOOQRWEHDEOHWRSDUWLFLSDWH
LQWKHIRUPDWLRQRIJRYHUQPHQWVQHLWKHUVWDWHQRUIHGHUDO
&RQFOXVLRQVDQG3ROLF\,PSOLFDWLRQV
*HUPDQ\¶V SROLWLFDO ODQGVFDSH LV FKDQJLQJ GUDPDWLFDOO\ LQ WKH ZDNH RI
WKHRQJRLQJPLJUDQWFULVLVLQ(XURSH,QWKLVDUWLFOHZHLGHQWL¿HGWZRPDLQ
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
GHYHORSPHQWVZKLFKFDQEHREVHUYHGDWSUHVHQW)LUVWO\LWLVWKHHURVLRQRI
$QJHOD0HUNHO¶VGRPHVWLFDXWKRULW\DQGKHUJURZLQJLVRODWLRQZLWKLQ(XURSH
6HFRQGO\ LW LV WKH JURZLQJ SRSXODULW\ RI$I' D ULJKWZLQJ SRSXOLVW SDUW\
WKDW KDV EHFRPH LQFUHDVLQJO\ UDGLFDOLVHG DIWHU LWV VSOLW LQ 'XULQJ WKH
FULVLV $QJHOD 0HUNHO KDV DEDQGRQHG KHU ULVNDYHUVH JRYHUQLQJ VW\OH DQG
VKHLVGHFLVLYHO\SURPRWLQJDSDQ(XURSHDQVROXWLRQ+HUSROLWLFDOVXUYLYDO
LV GHSHQGHQW RQ KHU DELOLW\ WR LPSOHPHQW VXFK D VROXWLRQ LQ WKH KRVWLOH
HQYLURQPHQW RI (XURSHDQ FRXQWULHV WKDW DUH RSSRVLQJ KHU SODQ DQG SUHIHU
QDWLRQDO PHDVXUHV LQVWHDG$QJHOD 0HUNHO KDV HDUQHG D UHSXWDWLRQ IRU KHU
VXFFHVVIXO FULVLV PDQDJHPHQW DQG SUDJPDWLFKDQGOLQJ RI FUXFLDOVLWXDWLRQV
+RZHYHUWKLVLVWKHELJJHVWFKDOOHQJHRIKHUSROLWLFDOFDUHHUDQGLWZLOOEH
LQFUHDVLQJO\ GLI¿FXOW WR SURPRWH WKH VROXWLRQ VKH EHOLHYHV LQ ZLWK DOPRVW
QRDOOLHVOHIW±QHLWKHULQ(XURSHQRULQ*HUPDQ\$ERYHDOOVRFLRHFRQRPLF
SURFHVVHV OLNH PDVV PLJUDWLRQ RU HFRQRPLF FULVLV FUHDWH D IDYRXUDEOH
HQYLURQPHQWIRUSRSXOLVWPRYHPHQWV7KH$I'FRXOGEHFRPHWKH¿UVWULJKW
ZLQJSRSXOLVWSDUW\LQ*HUPDQ\VXFFHVVIXOQRWRQO\LQWKHVWDWHEXWDOVRLQ
IHGHUDO HOHFWLRQV +RZHYHU GXH WR LWV UDGLFDOLVDWLRQ LW ZLOO EH H[WUHPHO\
GLI¿FXOWIRUWKHSDUW\WRWUDQVIRUPLWVHOHFWRUDODFKLHYHPHQWVLQWRUHDOSROLWLFDO
UHOHYDQFH
5HIHUHQFHV
[1]
$I' 0DQLIHVWR 3URJUDPP IU GLH %XQGHVWDJVZDKO >RQOLQH@ $YDLODEOH DW
KWWSVZZZDOWHUQDWLYHIXHUGHSURJUDPPKLQWHUJUXQGSURJUDPPDWLN>DFFHVVHG@
ΊϮ΋ $5=+(,0(5.7KH$I')LQDOO\D6XFFHVVIXO5LJKW:LQJ3RSXOLVW(XURVFHSWLF
3DUW\IRU*HUPDQ\",Q:HVW(XURSHDQ3ROLWLFVSS,661
[3]
%DVLF/DZIRUWKH)HGHUDO5HSXEOLFRI*HUPDQ\>RQOLQH@$YDLODEOHDWKWWSVZZZ
EXQGHVWDJGHEOREFHGEHIFFEGFGEDVLFBODZGDWDSGI!
>DFFHVVHG@
[4]
%%& 0DSSLQJ 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ 0LJUDWLRQ >RQOLQH@ $YDLODEOH DW KWWSZZZEEF
FRPQHZVZRUOGHXURSH!>DFFHVVHG@
[5]
%ORRPEHUJ 0HUNHO )LUHV %DFN DW 2SSRQHQWV RI +HU 2SHQ'RRU 5HIXJHH 3ROLF\
>RQOLQH@ $YDLODEOH DW KWWSZZZEORRPEHUJFRPQHZVDUWLFOHVPHUNHO¿UHV
EDFNDWRSSRQHQWVRIKHURSHQGRRUUHIXJHHSROLF\>DFFHVVHG@
Ίϲ΋ %$1&+2)) 7 ) 7KH *HUPDQ 3UREOHP 7UDQVIRUPHG: ,QVWLWXWLRQV 3ROLWLFV DQG
)RUHLJQ3ROLF\௅8QLYHUVLW\RI0LFKLJDQ3UHVV,6%1
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
Ίϳ΋ %8/0(5 6 ± 3$7(5621 : ( *HUPDQ\ DV WKH (8¶V UHOXFWDQW KHJHPRQ" 2I
HFRQRPLFVWUHQJWKDQGSROLWLFDOFRQVWUDLQWV,Q-RXUQDORI(XURSHDQ3XEOLF3ROLF\9RO
1RSS,661
Ίϴ΋ &2/20(5-0HG&RPSDUDWLYH(XURSHDQ3ROLWLFV5RXWOHGJH,6%1
Ίϵ΋ '$/7215-,QWHUSUHWLQJ3DUWLVDQ'HDOLJQPHQWLQ*HUPDQ\,Q*HUPDQ3ROLWLFV
9ROXPH,VVXHSS,661
ΊϭϬ΋ '(&.(5 ) )ROORZXS WKH *UDQG &RDOLWLRQ 7KH *HUPDQ 3DUW\ 6\VWHP EHIRUH
DQGDIWHUWKH)HGHUDO(OHFWLRQ,Q/DQJHQEDFKHU(HG7KH0HUNHO5HSXEOLF$Q
$SSUDLVDO%HUJKDKQ%RRNVSS,6%1
[11] 'HXWVFKH :HOOH *HUPDQ\¶V $I' GLVWDQFHV LWVHOI IURP +|FNH¶V µDOPRVW UDFLVW¶
UHPDUNV>RQOLQH@$YDLODEOHDWKWWSZZZGZFRPHQJHUPDQ\VDIGGLVWDQFHVLWVHOIIURP
K&%FNHVDOPRVWUDFLVWUHPDUNVD!>DFFHVVHG@
[12] De :,/'(3±.2230$165±=h510&RQÀLFWVRU&OHDYDJH"&RQWHVWLQJ
*OREDOL]DWLRQLQ:HVWHUQ(XURSHDQG%H\RQG>RQOLQH@(XURSHDQ&RQVRUWLXPIRU3ROLWLFDO
5HVHDUFK$YDLODEOHDWKWWSVHFSUHX)LOHVWRUH3DSHU3URSRVDOFHHFFIED
EDGSGI!>DFFHVVHG@
[13] 'LH:HOW0LOOLRQHQ)OFKWOLQJHNDPHQQDFK'HXWVFKODQG>RQOLQH@$YDLODEOH
DW KWWSZZZZHOWGHSROLWLNGHXWVFKODQGDUWLFOH0LOOLRQHQ)OXHFKWOLQJH
NDPHQQDFK'HXWVFKODQGKWPO!>DFFHVVHG@
[14] D¶277$9,2*±6$$/)(/'7*HUPDQ\$IWHUWKH(OHFWLRQV%UHDNLQJWKH
0RXOG RI 3RVW8QL¿FDWLRQ 6XUUH\$VKJDWH 3XEOLVKLQJ /LPLWHG ,6%1 Ίϭϱ΋ '8670$11 &+ ± ),7=(1%(5*(5 % ± 6&+g1%(5* 8 ± 6SLW]2HQHU
$)URP6LFN0DQRI(XURSHWR(FRQRPLF6XSHUVWDU*HUPDQ\¶V5HVXUJHQW(FRQRP\,Q
-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLF3HUVSHFWLYHVSS,661
[16] (85HJXODWLRQ1R>RQOLQH@$YDLODEOHDWKWWSHXUOH[HXURSDHXOHJDO
FRQWHQW(17;7"XUL &(/(;5!>DFFHVVHG@
[17] (XURSHDQ &RPPLVVLRQ (87XUNH\ $JUHHPHQW 4XHVWLRQV DQG $QVZHUV >RQOLQH@
$YDLODEOH DW KWWSHXURSDHXUDSLGSUHVVUHOHDVHB0(02BHQKWP! >DFFHVVHG
@
[18] (XURSHDQ &RXQFLO (87XUNH\ VWDWHPHQW 0DUFK >RQOLQH@ $YDLODEOH
DW
KWWSZZZFRQVLOLXPHXURSDHXHQSUHVVSUHVVUHOHDVHVHXWXUNH\
VWDWHPHQW!>DFFHVVHG@
[19] )RUEHV7KH:RUOG¶V0RVW3RZHUIXO:RPHQ>RQOLQH@$YDLODEOHDWKWWSZZZ
IRUEHVFRPSRZHUZRPHQ!>DFFHVVHG@
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
ΊϮϬ΋ +b86/(5$'LH³$OWHUQDWLYHIU'HXWVFKODQG´(LQHUHFKWVSRSXOLVWLVFKH3DUWHL"
'VVHOGRUI+HLQULFK%|OO6WLIWXQJ15:>RQOLQH@$YDLODEOHDWKWWSVZZZERHOO
GHVLWHVGHIDXOW¿OHVDIGBVWXGLHBQUZSGI!>DFFHVVHG@
ΊϮϭ΋ +b86/(5$ 'LH$I' 'LH 3DUWHL GHV UHFKWHQ :XWEUJHUWXPV DP 6FKHLGHZHJ.
%HUOLQ )ULHGULFK (EHUW 6WLIWXQJ $YDLODEOH DW KWWSOLEUDU\IHVGHSGI¿OHV
GLDORJSGI!>DFFHVVHG@
ΊϮϮ΋ +h%1(5 . *HUPDQ FULVLV PDQDJHPHQW DQG OHDGHUVKLS ௅ IURP LJQRUDQFH WR
SURFUDVWLQDWLRQWRDFWLRQ,Q$VLD(XURSH-RXUQDO9ROXPH,VVXHSS
,661
[23] ,QGHSHQGHQW*HUPDQQXFOHDUSRZHUSODQWVWRFORVH>RQOLQH@$YDLODEOHDWKWWSZZZ
LQGHSHQGHQWFRXNQHZVZRUOGHXURSHJHUPDQQXFOHDUSRZHUSODQWVWRFORVH
KWPO!>DFFHVVHG@
[24] ,QIUDWHVW GLPDS$5''HXWVFKODQG75(1' 0RQWKO\ UHSRUWV IURP -DQXDU\ ±
-XQH $YDLODEOH DW KWWSZZZLQIUDWHVWGLPDSGHXPIUDJHQDQDO\VHQEXQGHVZHLW
DUGGHXWVFKODQGWUHQG!>DFFHVVHG@
ΊϮϱ΋ /$1*(1%$&+(5(,QWURGXFWLRQ0HNHOV1DFKVRPPHUPlUFKHQ,Q7KH0HUNHO
5HSXEOLF$Q$SSUDLVDO%HUJKDKQ%RRNV,6%1
ΊϮϲ΋ /((6&+&KDQFHOORU+HJHPRQ\,Q/DQJHQEDFKHU(HG7KH0HUNHO5HSXEOLF
$Q$SSUDLVDO%HUJKDKQ%RRNV,6%1
ΊϮϳ΋ /((6&+7KHSDUDGR[LFDOHIIHFWVRIGHFOLQH$VVHVVLQJSDUW\V\VWHPFKDQJHDQG
WKHUROHRIWKHFDWFKDOOSDUWLHVLQ*HUPDQ\IROORZLQJWKHIHGHUDOHOHFWLRQ,Q3DUW\
3ROLWLFV9ROXPH,VVXHSS,661
ΊϮϴ΋ 08''(&3RSXOLVWUDGLFDOULJKWSDUWLHVLQ(XURSH&DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
,6%1
[29] 1< 7LPHV &RXQWULHV 8QGHU WKH 0RVW 6WUDLQ LQ WKH (XURSHDQ 0LJUDWLRQ &ULVLV
>RQOLQH@ $YDLODEOH DW KWWSZZZQ\WLPHVFRPLQWHUDFWLYHZRUOGHXURSH
FRXQWULHVXQGHUVWUDLQIURPHXURSHDQPLJUDWLRQFULVLVKWPO!>DFFHVVHG@
ΊϯϬ΋ 321'(±.81'1$1,+*HUPDQ\¶V5HDO5ROHLQWKH8NUDLQH&ULVLV&DXJKW
%HWZHHQ(DVWDQG:HVW,Q)RUHLJQ$IIDLUV9ROXPH,VVXH0DU$SU,661
Ίϯϭ΋ 5<'*5(1-HG0RYHPHQWVRI([FOXVLRQ5DGLFDO5LJKWZLQJ3RSXOLVPLQWKH
:HVWHUQ:RUOG1HZ<RUN1RYD6FLHQFH3XEOLVKLQJ,6%1
[32] 6SLHJHO 2QOLQH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO >RQOLQH@ $YDLODEOH DW KWWSZZZVSLHJHOGH
LQWHUQDWLRQDOJHUPDQ\PHUNHOXQGHU¿UHDVUHIXJHHFULVLVLQ JHUPDQ\ZRUVHQVD
KWPO!>DFFHVVHG@
[33]
7KH(FRQRPLVW0HUNHOWKHEROG>RQOLQH@$YDLODEOHDWKWWSZZZHFRQRPLVWFRP
(.2120,&.e52=+ď$'< – ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOLUME 45., 3/2016
QHZVOHDGHUVUHIXJHHVJHUPDQ\VFKDQFHOORUEUDYHGHFLVLYHDQGULJKWPHUNHO
EROG!>DFFHVVHG@
[34] 7KH :DOO 6WUHHW -RXUQDO 3ROLWLFDO %DFNODVK $JDLQVW 0HUNHO *URZV 2YHU 5HIXJHH
&ULVLV >RQOLQH@ $YDLODEOH DW KWWSZZZZVMFRPDUWLFOHVSROLWLFDOEDFNODVKDJDLQVW
PHUNHOJURZVRYHUUHIXJHHFULVLV!>DFFHVVHG@
[35] 81+&5 81+&5 YLHZSRLQW µ5HIXJHH¶ RU µPLJUDQW¶ :KLFK LV ULJKW" >RQOLQH@
$YDLODEOHDWKWWSZZZXQKFURUJGIHKWPO!>DFFHVVHG@
[36] KWWSVZDKOWDJHVVFKDXGHZDKOHQ/7'(53DQDO\VHZDQGHUXQJ
VKWPO!>DFFHVVHG@
[37]
KWWSVZDKOWDJHVVFKDXGHZDKOHQ/7'(53!>DFFHVVHG@
[38] KWWSVZDKOWDJHVVFKDXGHZDKOHQ%7'(LQGH[VKWPO!
@
>DFFHVVHG
[39]
KWWSZZZZDKOUHFKWGHXPIUDJHQGLPDSKWP!>DFFHVVHG@
[40]
KWWSZZZZDKOUHFKWGHXPIUDJHQODQGWDJHLQGH[KWP!>DFFHVVHG@
Ίϰϭ΋ :(%%(5 ' 1HZ (XURSH 1HZ *HUPDQ\ 2OG )RUHLJQ 3ROLF\" *HUPDQ )RUHLJQ
3ROLF\6LQFH8QL¿FDWLRQ3V\FKRORJ\3UHVV,6%1