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Why do scientists use models? (Interview) Active Listening Questions: • How do scientists check climate models to see if they are credible? • What is one thing that makes Dr. Meehl optimistic about society's ability to address the issue of climate change? • What is one concern that Dr. Meehl expresses about his perception of the general public's W H A T: In this clip from a 2009 interview, climate modeler Jerry Meehl explains how climate models work, what they are used for, and what we can learn from them. This interview was conducted by AGCI during a workshop on Advanced Climate Modeling and Decision-­‐Making Support of Climate Services, held in Aspen, Colorado. W H O : Dr. Jerry (Gerald) Meehl is a Senior "We get asked all the Scientist at the National Center for time...how can we Atmospheric Research. His research believe this climate interests include studying the interactions model? How does between El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoons of Asia; that relate to the real identifying possible effects on global climate world?" of changing anthropogenic forcings, such as carbon dioxide, as well as natural forcings, such as solar variability; and quantifying possible future changes of weather and climate extremes in a warmer climate. He serves as chair of the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council Climate Research Committee, chair of the Scientific Advisory Committee for the International Pacific Research Center at the University of Hawaii, co-­‐chair of the Community Climate System Model Climate Change Working Group, and co-­‐chair of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Models (WGCM). Glossary Term:
Ground Truthing
Ground truthing is when scientists double-­‐check their data by visiting a study site in person, or "on the ground." It is an important process used by scientists to test the accuracy a model or statistical analysis in real life and make certain that assumptions they have made or parameters they are using are correct. horsesmouth.agci.org
Why do scientists use models? (Interview) TA KIN G TH E REIN S
D iscussion Q uestions:
Discuss with a friend or record your thoughts in a journal. •
What do climate models do and how do they work?
G o Beyond: Science Journal
Materials: Notebook, paper and pencil or dedicated computer file where you can keep your work. Models come in a variety of forms in addition to computer models. They can be as simple as an equation for how fast a car will go from one place to another or a terrarium with a lamp used to demonstrate plants responses to different temperatures, and are used by a variety of people from physicists to ecologists to engineers and others. Using the following science journal template (a 7 part process) to answer the questions that follow and learn more about models: •
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How do models work? What is one example of a model that I use regularly? 1. Select one or more of the questions above. 2. Write down or sketch what you think answers the question based on your own understanding without looking anything up. 3. Ask a family member, friend, or teacher the same question(s) and write down or sketch their answers. 4. What are the common ideas in the answers you've collected? Write or sketch the common themes/ideas. 5. Devise your own strategy for digging deeper (ask a scientist, check out university and government agency websites like NASA and NOAA, go to the library, design and conduct an experiment, etc.) until you're satisfied the answer makes sense to you. 6. Summarize what is known and unknown about the subject of the question(s). Also note what evidence there is in supporting what is known and how the evidence was obtained. 7. (Optional) Create a model of your own. How well does it reflect what would happen in real life? What does it represent well and where is it an unsuccessful representation? 8. Rate the answer you've come up with on a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being weak with lots of uncertainty, 10 being perfect. Further Reading: At the 2009 workshop where this interview was conducted, Jerry Meehl also gave a scientific presentation: Issues for Climate Prediction and Climate Services. The complete PowerPoint for this presentation can be found on the AGCI website: agci.org.