Chin. Geogra. Sci. 2011 21(6) 676–684
doi: 10.1007/s11769-011-0506-9
www.springerlink.com/content/1002-0063
Changes and Effecting Factors of Grain Production in China
CHEN Yuqi1, 2, LI Xiubin2, WANG Jing1
(1. Key Laboratory of Land Use, Ministry of Land and Resource, Beijing 100035, China;
2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)
Abstract: Based on the data from the Cost-benefit Data of Farm Produce and the China Agricultural Yearbook, this
paper aims to examine the spatial and temporal change characteristics of total grain production and its affecting factors.
The results show that: 1) During 1980 to 2007, total grain production increased from 3.20 × 108 t to 5.02 × 108 t in
China, with annual increasing rate of 1.68%. From the regional disparities, most of the regions present increasing trend
of total grain production except for several regions with higher level of economic development; 2) Grain sown area
decreased from 1.17 × 108 ha in 1980 to 1.06 × 108 ha in 2007, which has negative effect on total grain production; 3)
The increase of grain yield per unit area caused by land use intensity changes contributed to the increase of total grain
yield greatly. However, as the land use intensity showed that farmers pay more attention to labor-saving input but not
yield-increasing input, the less enthusiasm of farmers in grain production may become an important constraint on future grain production increase in China; 4) Based on the results, this paper proposed different land management policies in different regions, for example, the government should protect cultivated land, promote large scale production.
As to the less developed regions, the government should pay more attention to agricultural subsidies to promote farmers′ enthusiasm in grain production.
Keywords: grain production; grain yield per unit area; grain sown area; land use intensity
Citation: Chen Yuqi, Li Xiubin, Wang Jing, 2011. Changes and effecting factors of grain production in China. Chinese
Geographical Science, 21(6): 676–684. doi: 10.1007/s11769-011-0506-9
1
Introduction
Because of the rapid and continuous population growth
and the increasing land requirements for urbanization
and industrialization, ensuring food security with the
limited supply of land resources has always been the
focus of Chinese government and the people (Ramankutty et al., 2002; Zhang et al., 2008). However, as
the natural, socio-economic conditions show significantly regional differences in China, in order to develop
scientific policies for sustainable development of grain
production in different regions, it is important to analyze
the spatial and temporal characteristics of grain production changes and their effecting factors.
As to grain production changes, in the existing researches, most studies adopt grain yield per unit area or
total grain yield to analyze the regional comparative
advantage at provincial or county scale, and propose
some corresponding policies and measures (Yin et al.,
2006). For example, Liu and Zhai (2009) proposed that
since 1990s, the northern and central China have been
new growth centers of grain production, but in some
regions, especially economic developed regions of
southeast China, the grain production cut down obviously. In addition, some scholars analyzed the causes of
regional disparities and the focus is mainly on the loss
of cultivated land and grain sown area changes (Yang
and Li, 2000; Liu et al., 2003; Deng et al., 2006; Liu
and Zhai, 2009; Yan, 2009).
As to the effecting factors, although both grain sown
area and land input determined regional total grain yield,
most scholars focused on the effect of one aspect on
grain production (Tian and Wan, 2000; Shriar, 2002;
Feng et al., 2005), especially the grain sown area
Received date: 2010-09-15; accepted date: 2011-03-04
Foundation item: Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40971062), China Postdoctoral Science
Fundation (No. 20100480441)
Corresponding author: CHEN Yuqi. E-mail: [email protected]
© Science Press, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, CAS and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011
Changes and Effecting Factors of Grain Production in China
changes caused by the decrease of arable land. Few
scholars did researches on the influence of land use intensity′s internal structure changes and the combination
effect of both grain sown area and land input on grain
production (Verburg et al., 2000; Tranter et al., 2007). In
China, accompanied by the rapid economic growth, it is
inevitable of the land shift from agriculture to industry,
infrastructure and residential use (Ramankutty et al.,
2002). Since the loss of cultivated land is inevitable, the
emphasis on grain yield per unit area is particularly important. For the purpose of analyzing the primary causes
of spatial and temporal characteristics of grain production in China, an integrated study on grain sown area
changes and their effecting factors are essential.
This paper has the following purposes: 1) to analyze
the spatial and temporal changes of grain production at
both the country and provincial levels in the period of
1980–2007 in China; 2) to investigate the change characteristics of grain sown area, and land use intensity
during 1980 and 2007; 3) to examine the impacts of
grain sown area and land use intensity on total grain
production. The spatially explicit results could provide
scientific guidance for agricultural policy-making and
agricultural sustainable development.
2 Data and Methods
2.1 Data and methods
The data used in this paper include total grain yield,
grain yield per unit area, grain sown area, total sown
area, ratio of grain sown area to total sown area, total
arable land area, multiple crop index, labor input,
yield-increasing input, and labor-saving input. All of
these indicators can be divided into three categories:
grain production, planting structure and land use intensity. All data of these indicators were collected at both
national and provincial levels between 1980 and 2007.
The data of total grain yield, grain yield per unit area,
grain sown area, total sown area and total arable land
can be obtained directly from China Statistical Yearbook
(National Bureau of Statistics of China, 1981–2008) and
China Agricultural Yearbook (Department of Rural Surveys, 1981–2008). Multiple crop index (MCI) was calculated by total sown area of all crops and total arable
land by using Equation (1).
MCI 
Total sown area
Total cultivated land area
(1)
677
As to land use intensity, Brookfield (1972) defined
agricultural intensification as ′in relation to constant
land, the substitution of labor, capital or technology for
land, in any combination, so as to obtain higher
long-term production from the same area′. According to
definitions of land use intensity proposed by Chen et al.
(2009), land use intensity can be divided into labor intensity and capital intensity. Capital intensity can be
further divided into yield-increasing input and labor-saving input. These indicators could be calculated
by equations as follows.
Labor intensity 
( family labor input  hired labor ) rice + 
(2)
average ( family labor input  hired labor ) wheat + 


( family labor input  hired labor ) maize 
Yield -increasing input 
( seed  chemical fertilizer  pesticide) rice + 
average ( seed  chemical fertilizer  pesticide) wheat + 


( seed  chemical fertilizer  pesticide) maize 
(3)
Labor -saving input  average  (machinery input )rice 
(machinery input ) wheat  (machinery input )maize 
(4)
All data used in equations (2)–(4) are from Costbenefit Data of Farm Produce. In order to eliminate ill
effects of inflation, all capital intensity data are modified
by means of agricultural production price index on the
basis of 1980.
2.2 Effecting factors of grain production
In order to analyze the changes of grain production, it is
important to investigate the contributing factors of total
grain yield (Fig. 1). It is known that total grain yield is
determined by grain sown area and grain yield per unit
area. As to grain sown area, it is affected by total sown
area of all crops and the ratio of grain sown area to total
sown area. Furthermore, total sown area of all crops is
determined by total arable land area and multiple crop
index. These two factors are constrained by natural conditions, administrative divisions, farmers′ planting decisions, and many other factors. As a result, they show
significant regional differences.
In addition to natural factors, grain yield per unit area
is determined by the input of cultivated land use, which
is land use intensity. As land input can be divided into
capital input and labor input, and capital input can be
CHEN Yuqi, LI Xiubin, WANG Jing
678
further divided into yield-increasing input and laborsaving input (Chen et al., 2009), the effects of these
three land inputs on grain yield per unit area were analyzed.
3
Grain Production and Effecting Factors
3.1 Changes of grain production during 1980–2007
During 1980 to 2007, total grain yield increased from
3.20 × 108 t to 5.02 × 108 t in China, with an annual increasing rate of 1.68% (Fig. 2). At the same time, grain
sown area decreased by 1.16 × 107 ha during the past 27
years. As the grain sown area reduced significantly, it is
the grain yield per unit area contributed to the increase
of total grain yield. Grain yield per unit area increased
from 2734 kg/ha to 4748 kg/ha between 1980 and 2007.
From the view point of regional differences, most of the
Fig. 1
Fig. 2
regions show increasing trend of total grain production.
Only the grain production in Zhejiang, Beijing, Shanghai, Fujian, and Guangdong decreased.
3.2 Effects of grain sown area on grain production
3.2.1 Grain sown area changes
Grain sown area decreased from 1.17 × 108 ha in 1980
to 1.06 × 108 ha in 2007 at the country level (Fig. 2).
Changes show remarkable differences across different
regions. In 2007, the regions with scarce land or lower
level of economic development had less grain sown area,
like Shanghai, Beijing, Tibet and Qinghai. The major
grain producing areas, such as Heilongjiang, Henan,
Shandong and Sichuan, had largest grain sown area (Fig.
3a).
Grain sown area in the regions with higher level of
economic development decreased rapidly, such as Shang-
Contributing factors of total grain yield
Changes of total grain yield, grain sown area and grain yield per unit area during 1980 and 2007 in China
Changes and Effecting Factors of Grain Production in China
hai, Beijing, Tianjin municipalities, Zhejiang, Guangdong
and Fujian provinces. Grain sown area in Shanghai Municipality, which has the rapidest declining speed, decreased from 4.94 × 105 ha to 1.69 × 105 ha during the
past 27 years, with annual decreasing rate of 3.89%. The
major grain producing regions and some less developed
regions, showed increasing trend of grain sown area,
such as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Henan, Yunnan and Ningxia
(Fig. 3b).
3.2.2 Effects of grain sown area changes on grain
production
In order to analyze the effect of grain sown area changes
on total grain production, Equation (5) was applied to
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
679
measuring it quantitatively.
PA  Y2007 (A2007  A1980 )
(5)
where PA is the changes of grain production caused by
grain sown area changes; if positive, grain production
increased; or else, decreased; Y2007 is the grain yield per
unit area in 2007; A2007 is the grain sown area in 2007;
and A1980 is the grain sown area in 1980.
As grain sown area in most regions decreased rapidly,
it shows negative contribution to total grain production
totally (Fig. 4). The regions with higher economic development levels have the most amount of grain loss,
such as Zhejiang, Guangdong and Shandong provinces.
Grain sown area in 2007 (a) and its changing rate between 1980 and 2007 (b) in China
Grain production changes caused by grain sown area changes between 1980 and 2007 in China
680
CHEN Yuqi, LI Xiubin, WANG Jing
The total grain production decreased by 1.12 × 107 t in
Zhejiang Province, which is the most notable region in
China. There are only eight regions have increasing
grain production caused by grain sown area changes.
Most of them are major grain producing areas or with
lower economic development level. Grain sown area in
Heilongjiang Province shows the most obvious positive
contribution to the total grain production.
The provinces with more grain loss caused by grain
sown area are the regions have higher levels of economic development and small arable land per capita.
This phenomenon can be mainly attributed to two main
factors: agricultural labor shortage due to the rising
wage, and low income of agricultural production. More
non-farming work opportunities and higher wages have
obvious comparative advantages than grain production
in farmers′ management decisions. Therefore, more and
more labor force and capital was put into non-farming
production, which caused fast decrease of grain sown
area.
3.2.3 Internal impact mechanism of grain sown area
on grain production
As grain sown area is determined by cultivated land area,
multiple crop index, and the ratio of grain sown area to
total sown area, change characteristics of these factors
should be analyzed individually. It is worth mentioning
that the accurate data of cultivated land in China began
in 1996, the first nation-wide land survey. Therefore, the
study period of regional cultivated land area and multiple crop index changes are from 1996 to 2007.
Firstly, the decrease of cultivated land area is an important reason of grain sown area changes. Since rapid
economic growth is always accompanied by a great loss
of cultivated land in China, total cultivated land decreased by 8.2 × 107 ha during 1997 and 2007. Almost
cultivated land area in all regions showed a decreasing
trend in the study period, especially those with higher
levels of economic development, such as Beijing and
Shanghai municipalities and Guangdong Province, with
an annual decreasing rate of 3.84%, 1.79% and 1.34%
respectively.
Secondly, under certain cultivated land area, multiple
crop index influence grain sown area through total sown
area. In all 31 provinces (and municipalities) of the
Chinese mainland, multiple crop index in 14 provinces
showed a decreasing trend during 1997 and 2007, the
other 17 provinces showed an increasing multiple crop
index. The provinces with higher levels of economic
development and small arable land per capita had highest reducing rate of multiple crop index per year, such as
Zhejiang Province (–3.64%), Beijing (–2.03%), Tianjin
(–1.81%) and Shanghai (–1.64%) municipalities. On the
contrary, the regions with lower economic development
levels and larger arable land per capita showed highest
increasing rate of multiple crop index per year, for example, Ningxia (3.39%), Inner Mongolia (2.79%), Xinjiang (2.62%) and Heilongjiang (2.76%).
Finally, although total sown area increased during
1980 and 2007, grain sown area decreased during this
period, which means that the ratio of grain sown area to
total sown area reduced. As much cultivated land used
for planting grain was used to plant cash crops, the ratio
of grain sown area to total sown area decreased from
80.09% to 68.84% during 1980 and 2007. Due to the
adjustment of agricultural structure, most regions of
China have a decreasing ratio of grain sown area to total
sown area.
3.3 Effects of land use intensity on grain production
3.3.1 Cultivated land use intensity changes
As grain yield per unit area affects total grain yield
through land use intensity, this paper analyzed the
changes of land use intensity and its effects on total
grain yield. During 1980 and 2007, labor intensity of
grain production decreased rapidly from 398.55 day/ha
to 122.70 day/ha, with a decreasing rate of 4.27% per
year; while capital intensity increased from 211.20 yuan
(RMB)/ha to 618.07 yuan (RMB)/ha, with an annual
increasing rate of 4.06%. Both yield-increasing input
and labor-saving input increased significantly. In 1980,
yield-increasing input accounted for 90.98% of total
capital input and labor-saving input only accounted for
9.02%. In 2007, the proportion of labor-saving input
increased to 28.51% (Fig. 5).
The changes of different land input varied at different
times. Based on the main agricultural policies of China,
the study period was divided into 1980–1986, 1986–
1996, 1996–2003 and 2003–2007 (Table 1). During
1980 and 1986, the annual changing rate of labor and
capital intensity was –6.991% and 3.142%. During 1986
and 1996, because of the subsidies to cereal production,
capital input, including both yield-increasing input and
labor-saving input, increased rapidly. During 1996 and
Changes and Effecting Factors of Grain Production in China
2003, labor intensity decreased by 4.832%; capital intensity and yield-increasing input decreased by 1.612%
and 3.107% each year respectively. During 2003 and
2007, because of the policies of abolishing agricultural
taxes and providing grain production subsidy, farmers
increased agricultural inputs, which caused the rapid
increase in capital input.
3.3.2 Effects of land use intensity changes on grain
production
Land use intensity influence the total grain yield by
changing the grain yield per unit area. The effects of
grain yield per unit area on grain production can be
measured by the following equation.
PY  A1980 (Y2007  Y1980 )
(6)
where PY is the loss of grain production caused by grain
yield per unit area; if positive, grain production increased between 1980 and 2007; or else, decreased;
A1980 is the grain sown area in 1980; Y2007 is the grain
yield per unit area in 2007; Y1980 is the grain yield per
unit area in 1980.
Grain yield per unit area increased rapidly during the
past 27 years, which impact total grain production positively (Fig. 6). Grain yield per unit area in the major
grain producing areas make greater contribution to grain
Fig. 5
production. Such as Henan and Shandong provinces,
total grain production increased by 2.76 × 107 t and 2.61
× 107 t respectively because of the change of grain yield
per unit area. The grain yield per unit area contributed
less to total grain production in relatively developed
regions, for example, Qinghai (5.3 × 105 t) and Tibet
(5.8 × 105 t).
3.3.3 Internal impact mechanism of land use intensity on grain production
Figure 7 indicates a clear relationship between yieldincreasing input and grain yield per unit area during
1980 and 2007 in China, which means that the increase
of yield-increasing input lead to the increase of grain
yield per unit area to some extent. However, the grain
yield per unit yield-increasing input decreased from
18.02 kg/yuan to 13.94 kg/yuan. As chemical fertilizer
is the main proportion of yield-increasing input, this
result is familiar with Tong et al. (2003) and Ko et al.
(1998). The possible reasons are the soil degradation,
adverse climatic conditions, improper ratios between
inorganic and organic fertilizers.
3.4 Suggestions for increasing grain production
Although grain production is determined by both grain
sown area and land use intensity, few researchers have
Cultivated land use intensity changes during 1980 and 2007 in China
Table 1
Land use intensity
681
Changes of land use intensity in China during 1980 and 2007 (%)
Annual changing rate
1980–1986
1986–1996
1996–2003
2003–2007
Labor intensity
–6.991
–0.908
–4.832
–7.347
Capital intensity
3.142
6.166
–1.612
10.617
Yield-increasing input
3.037
5.757
–3.107
8.179
Labor-saving input
4.173
9.460
5.960
18.236
Note: ′–′ means decrease
CHEN Yuqi, LI Xiubin, WANG Jing
682
Fig. 6
Grain production changes caused by grain yield per unit area changes between 1980 and 2007 in China
Fig. 7
Relationship between yield-increasing input and grain yield per unit area during 1980 and 2007 in China
investigated their combination effects. Based on the related statistical data, this paper focused on the spatial
and temporal distribution of grain sown area, land use
intensity, and their joint effects on grain production.
Different from the former researches, this paper proposed that except for grain sown area changes caused by
reduction of arable land; the ratio decrease of grain
sown area to total sown area and land use intensity may
have an increasing important impact on total grain production. The reason of this phenomenon is the obvious
comparative advantages of non-farming work and cash
crops than grain production. In addition, because of the
different characteristics of internal change mechanism
of grain production in different regions, the government
should protect both grain sown area and grain yield per
unit area and adopt different measures in different regions for increasing grain production.
(1) Protect the cultivated land in both quantity and
quality and ensure the grain sown area. On the one hand,
minimize the occupation of cultivated land in the process of urbanization and industrialization with strict policies for land expropriation. On the other hand, in the
occupation-compensation balance for arable land project,
ensure the compensated land have equal quality and
quantity with the occupied land.
(2) Increase the comparative advantages of grain
production. As a rational person, economic benefits are
the main base of farmer′s production decisions. In order
to stimulate farmers to choose grain production in their
planting decisions and increase cultivated land use intensity, it is important to increase the benefit of grain
production, such as the increase of food production subsidies and protective prices of grain.
(3) Employ different land management policies in
different regions. The main problems of grain production in economically developed provinces are the fast
Changes and Effecting Factors of Grain Production in China
loss of cultivated land and extensive land use. In these
regions, the main focus should be on protecting cultivated land, and promoting land transfer and large scale
production. As to less developed regions, the government should pay more attention to agricultural subsidies
in order to promote farmers′ enthusiasm in grain production.
4
683
become one important constraint that influence future
food production in China. So the government should
protect both grain sown area and grain yield per unit
area and adopt different measures in different regions
for increasing grain production. Especially to the less
developed regions, the government should pay more
agricultural subsidies to promote farmers′ enthusiasm in
grain production.
Conclusions
References
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(1) During 1980 to 2007, total grain production increased from 3.20 × 108 t to 5.02 × 108 t in China, with
an increasing rate of 1.68% per year. From the regional
disparities, most of the regions presented increasing
trend of total grain production except for several regions
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(2) Grain sown area decreased from 1.17 × 108 ha in
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