Cities and Volcanoes
Commission
NEWSLETTER: September 2005
Cities and Volcanoes Commission
The Cities and Volcanoes Commission aims to
provide a linkage between the volcanology
community and emergency managers, to serve as
a conduit for the exchange of ideas and experience
between "volcano cities". It also aims to promote
multi-disciplinary applied research, involving the
collaboration of physical and social scientists, and
city officials.
Fascinating research questions emerge, but the impetus
towards analysing the issues should be because they affect
people: societies, cultures, livelihoods, and homes. People
could lose all they have known from a relatively minor eruption
on an island or near a city. No matter how obtuse politicians
and other power brokers might be, volcanologists and other
experts must always be sensitive to the human impact of their
work by recognising that they serve society, not the volcano
nor the peer-reviewed literature.
The Commission is open to all IAVCEI members
with no charge for membership. We aim to develop
a close link with the International Volcano Health
Hazard Network (IVHHN), World Organisation of
Volcano Observatories (WOVO) and Commission
on the Mitigation of Volcanic Disasters.
By Ilan Kelman http://www.ilankelman.org
http://cav.volcano.info
Volcanologists Serving Society
Economic and population centres of many small islands and
small island groups, from St. Lucia to Comoros, could be
impacted by volcanic activity. Evacuation of an island's entire
population and potential long-term abandonment of the isle
could be forced onto the agenda. Precedents exist, for
instance Niua Fo'ou (Tonga) in 1946, Tristan da Cunha in the
1960s, Vestmannaeyjar (Iceland) in 1973, and Montserrat in
the 1990s.
In each of these examples, long-term evacuation was
unsuccessful--which could be considered a positive longterm result from cultural or sociological perspectives. Yet
despite significant operational experience in dealing with
such crises, questions raised by the events could be
investigated more thoroughly.
Photos taken by Brad Scott, July 2005 in Montserrat, Caribbean.
Fresh eruption (above), and a pyroclastic flow and lahar inundated
building in Plymouth (below) .
How should volcanologists manage a situation where people
wish to stay on their rumbling island despite the possibility of a
large explosive eruption? Should volcanologists be
managing that situation or should social scientists be in
charge? Were any long-term psychological or sociological
impacts, on the affected population and on the
volcanologists, evident from the medium-term evacuations or
the threat of long-term evacuations? How could negative
impacts be reduced and positive impacts be enhanced? Why
would some communities choose to remain or return despite
significant volcanic risk?
Analogies exist with major cities overshadowed by volcanoes,
including Mexico City, Tokyo, Auckland, and Seattle.
Supervolcanoes could threaten continents from Yellowstoneor Toba-type eruptions. If we should be planning for lowprobability high-magnitude events--a question worthy of
debate--are volcanologists, politicians, and society ready to
contemplate such catastrophe? What would the social
impact be from formally investigating, publicising, and
training for massive calamity?
Issue 2005/2: September 2005
Issue 2005/2:
NEWSLETTER: September 2005
Proposal for an international plan to mitigate volcanic risk in the future:
idea put forward by Henry Gaudru
Urban vulnerability is one of the most underestimated issues
in urban development. By 2050, the world population is
expected to grow by three billion people. Almost all of this
growth will take place in developing countries - particularly
within their cities and towns.
By more than doubling the urban population, large numbers
of people will be concentrated in mega cities and their
increasingly fragile landscape, with huge impacts on the
natural resources surrounding them. There are currently
almost 450 cities worldwide with a population of more than
one million inhabitants.
The results of applying the tools will be useful to decision
makers and government officials who are responsible for
disaster prevention, by assisting them to:
¹ To decide priorities for urban planning, land use
planning and building regulation
¹ To prepare an improvement plan for reducing vulnerability
of the existing urban infrastructures
¹ To improve preparedness for emergency response, such
a evacuation, emergency transportation and shelter.
The results will also be useful to communities, NGO's and
citizens :
¹ To increase their understanding of the vulnerability of the
area where they live
¹ To understand how to behave in case of a volcanic
eruption
¹ To participate in preparing plans for disaster prevention.
In addition, the results of these studies will be useful to
companies that maintain urban infrastructure to understand
the necessity of prevention and preparedness. The results
will also very useful to developers, real estate agents, and
insurance/Reinsurance companies to enable them to plan
to minimize possible damage to their human resources as
well as properties for their business.
Koriaksky volcano close to the Petropavlosk city (Kamchatka).
Photo from H. Gaudru.
In the not too distant future it will be necessary to promote
the establishment of comprehensive management systems,
to develop tools for disaster risk assessment including
information technology that enables large cities close
volcanoes to understand their risks and then to prepare
actions to reduce their exposure. At the scientific level,
multidisciplinary research to evaluate the effects of volcanic
eruptions on large urban areas must be encouraged as well
as the development of technologies and methods for the
mitigation of those effects.
Proposed project for development of Risk assessment
tools for diagnosis of urban area risk in regard to
volcanic disasters
Based on the experience of the UNISDR radius initiative
about seismic risk (1996-2000), it would be very useful to
launch such a programme for volcanic risk in order to:
a) mitigate potential disasters by helping
people understand their volcanic risk and
encouraging them to take actions to mitigate it
b) raise public awareness from several selected
city examples.
The main objectives could be:
¹ To conduct a comparative study to understand urban
volcanic risk around the world
¹ To develop a practical tool for volcanic risk management,
which could be applied to any volcanic eruption-prone city
in the world
¹ To develop volcanic damage scenarios and action plans
in case-studies in cities selected worldwide
¹ To promote information exchange for volcanic risk
mitigation at city level
Such a programme (2-3 years duration) could be
implemented with large international, national and regional
cooperation levels (scientific, technical …). The programme
could be coordinated by UNISDR and under the aegis of
the IAVCEI.
Potential partners: IAVCEI, UNISDR, Selected international
institutes, Regional advisers
This proposal has not yet been endorsed by the CaV
committee but will be discussed at the Cities on Volcanoes
4 meeting. For more information contact:
HENRY GAUDRU, SVE-UNISDR scientific advisor for volcanic risk
mitigation, IAVCEI Cities on Volcanoes commission,
C.P.1 1211 Geneva 17, Switzerland
Fax : 00.41.22.917-0563 Tél : 00.33.6.15.29.19.61 Email :
[email protected] http://www.sveurop.org
Volcanic Impacts Database: web site
Ash-Impacts Website
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/ash/
Issue 2005/2: September 2005
Issue 2005/2:
NEWSLETTER: September 2005
Protocol for selecting venues for
"Cities on Volcanoes" meetings
Recent Publications
Background
To date there have been three “Cities on Volcanoes”
meetings. The purpose of these meetings is to bring
together volcanologists, city authorities, sociologists,
psychologists, emergency managers, economists and city
planners to evaluate volcanic crises preparedness and
management in cities and densely populated areas.
Perceptions of Risk for Volcanic Hazards at Vesuvio
and Etna, Italy
by Matthew S. Davis, Tullio Ricci & Lara M. Mitchell
In 1995 the “Volcanoes in Towns” meeting was held in
Rome, Italy. From that developed the first “Cites on
Volcanoes”, held in June-July 1998 in Rome and Naples,
Italy with over 100 people attending. This was followed by
the second in February 2001 in Auckland, New Zealand with
220 people attending and the third in Hilo in July 2003 with
300 attending. The 4th meeting is planned for Quito in
January 2005.
Abstract
Future Planning
¹ The venue for the next “Cities on Volcanoes” meeting
(likely to be held in 2007 or 2008) will be selected by a
Committee of the Cities and Volcanoes Commission.
¹ Formal written proposals are to be submitted by 1
December 2005 and must briefly outline:
- dates
- venue for conference
- locality (e.g. volcano characteristics, activity,
exposed population, vulnerability, etc)
- transport options for international attendees
- programme ideas (e.g. speakers, field trips)
- logistics and handling of these by the host country
- potential sponsorship
- preliminary estimates of the intended registration
fees.
The Commission will consider the initial proposals and may
seek further details from those countries with the most
suitable venues.
The Commission will announce the next venue at the 2006
“Cities on Volcanoes 4” meeting in Quito.
The Commission will assist the hosting country where
possible but organisational and financial responsibility rests
with the host.
New Zealand - Mt. Ruapehu Crater Lake, April 1993
Important Dates
The full paper is available from the free online journal The
Australasian Journal of Disaster and Trauma Studies: 2005/1
http://www.massey.ac.nz/~trauma/issues/current.shtml
There is a considerable body of work concerning citizens'
perceptions of risk regarding volcanic hazards, with most
studies conducted in the United States and New Zealand, No
comparable study has been done in Italy, where millions of
residents live in close proximity to Mt. Etna and Mt. Vesuvio.
This study compared the survey responses of 516
participants at Etna and Vesuvio on topics such as salience of
the volcanic hazard, various measures of risk perception,
perceived control over eruption effects, perceived
preparedness, confidence in government officials' efforts to
protect them from the eruption hazard, self efficacy and sense
of community. While residents at Etna appeared to have an
objective and informed perspective concerning the volcanic
hazard, those residents living in the highest risk areas at
Vesuvio demonstrated high levels of fear and perceived risk
concerning an eruption, but low
levels of perceived ability to
protect themselves from the
effects of an eruption. These
Ve s u v i o r e s i d e n t s a l s o
demonstrated low levels of
awareness concerning
evacuation plans, and low
levels of confidence in the Tullio Ricci and Matt Davis
success of such plans.
Contact: Matt Davis
[email protected]
Upcoming Conferences
Cities On Volcanoes 4
in Quito, Ecuador, January 23 - 27, 2006.
http://www.igepn.edu.ec/citiesonvolcanoes
Third International Conference on Early Warning (EWC III)
in Bonn, Germany, 27 - 29 March 2006. www.ewc3.org
1 December 2005
Deadline for written proposals for hosting CoV5
14 December 2005
Deadline for further information requests by Commission
New Zealand Mt. Ruapehu eruption, June 1996
8 January 2006
Deadline for further information submissions
January 2006
Meeting of the executive committee of the Cities and
Volcanoes Commission to decide venue of CoV5
27 January 2006
Venue for CoV5 announced.
Photo by Lloyd Homer. GNSImages http://images.gns.cri.nz
Issue 2005/2: September 2005
Issue 2005/2:
NEWSLETTER: September 2005
Seed funding for grass-roots
community volcanic hazard
preparedness
As part of its activities, the commission is to provide a yearly
grant of US$1000 to a community group in a developing
nation, which is working with volcanic hazard issues in their
area. A 'community group' is one that is not affiliated with
government, and receives minimal (or no) public funding.
A call for nominations will be made each year, with the
successful group to be elected from the
nominations by the CaV Commission
committee. A grant of $US1000 will be
made to the successful community
group. Arrangements will be
made to follow-up
progress a year on,
and this information
will be posted on the
CaV website and
newsletter.
For the inaugural community
grant, community groups in
Ecuador will be considered, as
this is the site of the next CoV
conference. The committee is
calling for nominations for
community groups working with
volcanic hazard issues.
Contact:
[email protected]
Tungurahua volcano from the nearby observatory. The volcano may
devastate western parts of the town Baños (foreground and out of frame
to left) at some stage. Photo D Johnston
Next newsletter
December 2005: Please send short news
items or information to [email protected]
by 30 October 2005.
Public education material produced by Civil Defence
groups in Ecuador.
Issue 2005/2: September 2005