int. j. remote sensing, 1999 , vol. 20 , no. 4, 683± 698 Estimating CO 2 exchange at two sites in Arctic tundra ecosystems during the growing season using a spectral vegetation index C. E. McMICHAEL*, A. S. HOPE, D. A. STOW and J. B. FLEMING Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA G. VOURLITIS and W. OECHEL Global Change Research Group, Department of Biology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA (Received 29 January 1997; in ® nal form 23 March 1998 ) Abstract. Measurements of carbon ¯ uxes in Arctic tundra landscapes are generally obtained through intensive ® eld work and involve the use of chamber and/ or micrometeorological tower techniques. However, ® ndings in a variety of nonArctic ecosystems have demonstrated the potential of remote sensing-based techniques (particularly spectral vegetation indices) to provide estimates of CO2 exchange in a more timely and e cient manner. As the ® rst step towards modelling Arctic regional and circumpolar ¯ uxes of CO2 using remotely sensed data, we investigated the relationships between plot-level ¯ uxes of CO2 and a vegetation spectral re¯ ectance index derived from hand-held radiometric data at two sites. These relationships were evaluated for variations in vegetation cover type and environmental factors using data collected during the short Arctic growing season. Overall, this study demonstrated a relationship between the Normalized Di erence Vegetation Index (NDVI) and measurements of mean site gross photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration at two sites in Arctic tundra ecosystems on the North Slope of Alaska. 1. Introduction Approximately 14% of stored terrestrial carbon is found in Arctic tundra ecosystems (Oberbauer et al. 1991). During the recent and historic geologic past the Arctic region is assumed to have been a sink for carbon, but research ® ndings over the past few years suggest that tundra ecosystems on the North Slope of Alaska may have become a source of carbon to the atmosphere (Oechel and Billings 1992, Oechel et al. 1993 ). Because of the presumed sensitivity of tundra ecosystems to climate change (Miller et al. 1983, Shaver et al. 1992), these results support the hypothesis that Arctic ecosystems may become a signi® cant positive feedback to potential global warming when ecosystem respiration exceeds gross photosynthesis (Oechel and Vourlitis 1994). The Land± Atmosphere± Ice Interaction (LAII) Trace Gas Flux study (TGFS) *e-mail: [email protected] International Journal of Remote Sensing ISSN 0143-1161 print/ ISSN 1366-5901 online Ñ 1999 Taylor & Francis Ltd http:// www.tandf.co.uk/ JNLS/ res.htm http:// www.taylorandfrancis.com/ JNLS/ res.htm 684 C. E. McMichael et al. was initiated in 1992 by the US National Science Foundation to model Arctic carbon source/ sink strengths on the North Slope of Alaska using meteorological and landscape variables measured at a variety of scales. In order to document, understand and predict the e ects of surface warming on Arctic ecosystem processes, investigators in this study established three primary objectives: (1) to measure trace gas ¯ uxes of Arctic ecosystems; (2) to determine the primary driving variables controlling these ¯ uxes; and (3) to scale ¯ ux measurements and model predictions from the local to the regional and ultimately to the circumpolar scale. Flux chamber and micrometeorological tower measurements are necessary for characterizing CO2 ¯ uxes at local scales. These data are representative of relatively small, discrete patches in space. Regional-scale estimates may be made by extrapolation of these `point’ data over time and space, but these extrapolations generally require some form of statistical or mechanistic modelling procedures. However, regional-scale estimates of carbon exchange will require spatially explicit input data for these models and observations from satellites or aircraft may be the only viable means for obtaining these data in a timely and cost-e ective manner. Many studies have successfully related vegetation spectral re¯ ectance in the red and near-infrared wavelengths to vegetation photosynthetic ¯ uxes at a variety of 2 spatial scales, ranging from less than 1 m to large regions. These studies have been conducted in a variety of environments using hand-held, aircraft and satellite-based remote sensing techniques (e.g. Tucker and Sellers 1986, Fung et al. 1987, Whiting et al. 1992, Potter et al. 1993). For example, satellite-derived values of the Normalized Di erence Vegetation Index, NDVI ((near-infraredÕ red)/ (near-infrared+ red)), have been shown to correspond to global-scale variations in the photosynthetic drawdown of CO2 from the atmosphere and to above-ground primary production (Tucker et al. 1986, Tucker and Sellers 1986, Fung et al. 1987 ). The NDVI values derived from hand-held radiometry have been related to plot-level net carbon dioxide exchange in a mid-latitude grass canopy (Bartlett et al. 1990) and in sub-Arctic tundra (Whiting et al. 1992). A goal of the LAII-TGFS is to develop models to estimate regional carbon balance of Arctic tundra on the North Slope of Alaska using aircraft and satellite remote sensing data. Investigating relationships between plot-level ¯ uxes of CO2 and a vegetation spectral re¯ ectance index derived from hand-held radiometric data represents the ® rst step towards this goal. Observations made using hand-held radiometric data provide the necessary `control’ for developing relationships between biophysical quantities and spectral re¯ ectance data at larger scales. The area contributing to the measured CO2 ¯ ux can be identi® ed precisely at this small scale and corresponding radiometric measurements can be made over this area. Relationships based on such plot-level measurements can then be used to guide the development of larger, regional-scale models that would utilize satellite or aircraft data. Few authors have applied remote sensing techniques to the problem of estimating CO2 ¯ uxes in tundra landscapes. A closed gas-exchange system (chamber) was used by Whiting et al. (1992) to measure plot-level CO2 ¯ uxes at two sites in sub-Arctic tundra over a one-month period. They recorded the multi-spectral re¯ ectance characteristics of the vegetation using a portable, hand-held radiometer while making concurrent measurements of CO2 ¯ ux. Whiting et al. (1992) demonstrated that net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 at the two sites could be predicted successfully using a spectral vegetation index (i.e. NDVI). These authors concluded that gross primary photosynthesis (GPP) was the dominant carbon exchange mechanism Estimating CO 2 exchange at two sites in Arctic tundra ecosystems 685 a ecting NEE in this landscape and that ecosystem respiration (ER) could be treated as a constant value (Sellers 1985). Thus, the NDVI± NEE relationships reported by Whiting et al. (1992) largely re¯ ect the relationship between the NDVI and GPP. In contrast to these ® ndings for sub-Arctic sites, research results presented by Grulke et al. (1990) and Oechel et al. (1993) for Arctic tundra ecosystems have shown ecosystem respiration to be variable and often the dominant component of daily NEE. Thus, the use of spectral vegetation indices (SVIs) to predict NEE in these locations probably necessitates separate models for GPP and ER. 2. Research objectives Studies have typically shown GPP to exhibit a non-linear dependence on photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) (Farquhar et al. 1980), although some authors have reported only slight non-linearities in the relationship (Tucker and Sellers 1986, Semikhatova et al. 1992, Whiting et al. 1992). A linear association between the NDVI and the incident photosynthetically active radiation intercepted by the vegetation (IPAR) has been theorized by Asrar et al. (1984 ) and Tucker and Sellers (1986), and empirically demonstrated in studies such as those reported by Bartlett et al. (1990) and Gamon et al. (1995 ). Together, these ® ndings suggest the existence of a strong, near-linear relationship between the NDVI and the draw-down of atmospheric CO2 . This relationship has been demonstrated at various scales in modelling studies (e.g. Potter et al. 1993) and empirical research (Tucker et al. 1986, Fung et al. 1987, Whiting et al. 1992, Verma et al. 1993). Previous research has pointed to the existence of a strong, near-linear relationship between the NDVI and the uptake of atmospheric CO2 by vegetation (i.e. GPP) for many non-Arctic environments. We hypothesized that a similar relationship would be found in Arctic tundra ecosystems. The general goal of this research was to investigate relationships between plot-level ¯ uxes of CO2 (GPP and ER) and a spectral vegetation index (NDVI) derived from hand-held radiometric data in selected Arctic tundra ecosystems on the North Slope of Alaska. These ecosystems were selected to be representative of the LAII-TGFS study area on the North Slope of Alaska. An additional hypothesis was that the NDVI would be related to the magnitude of ER in Arctic tundra ecosystems. Many authors have noted the signi® cant in¯ uences of soil moisture, depth of thaw and soil temperature on the magnitude of soil respiration in a variety of environments (e.g. Oberbauer et al. 1991, Potter et al. 1993, Oechel et al. 1995), while air temperature, growth rate and, to a lesser extent, soil heat loss have been suggested as factors in¯ uencing respiration in Arctic tundra plants (Tieszen 1973, Semikhatova et al. 1992). Unfortunately, accurate and reliable remote sensing methods for estimating these environmental factors are not well developed, implying that estimating ER via remote sensing techniques (e.g. the NDVI) may be di cult. However, Hope et al. (1993) and Stow et al. (1993) demonstrated that variations in the NDVI in Arctic tundra ecosystems followed patterns of vegetation community composition and state (e.g. green biomass). These variables are largely controlled by di erences in soil type and in temperature and moisture regimes on the North Slope (Ostendorf 1993 ), so we expected the NDVI to be an integrative measure of those variables in¯ uencing rates of ecosystem respiration. Finally, previous research has demonstrated that Arctic tundra carbon exchange rates are also in¯ uenced by environmental conditions such as air temperature, soil temperature and incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) (e.g. Tieszen 686 C. E. McMichael et al. 1973, Tieszen and Dietling 1980, Oberbauer et al. 1991, Nadelho er et al. 1992 ). Thus, in examining the GPP± NDVI and ER± NDVI relationships, we also investigated how these relationships were a ected by transient environmental conditions. 3. Study sites The North Slope of Alaska can be divided into two distinctive physiographic regions, the Arctic Coastal Plain and the Foothills Region of the Brooks Mountain Range. Soils along a latitudinal gradient extending from Prudhoe Bay at the coast to Happy Valley in the foothills region are primarily Histic Perigelic Cryaquepts (Rieger et al. 1979) in which a 15± 30 cm organic layer overlays the mineral soil (Marion and Oechel 1993). Mean monthly temperatures range between Õ 12.8 and 10.3ß C at the coast and from Õ 11.1 to 6.7ß C in the foothills (Oechel 1989). Mean annual precipitation is between 180 and 210 mm at the coast and between 225 and 325 mm in the foothills. Most of the annual precipitation on the North Slope falls as snow during the winter and spring months (Kane et al. 1992). The Arctic Coastal Plain is a wet sedge tundra ecosystem dominated by Carex aquatilis and Eriophorum angustifolium . It is characterized by low local relief (< 2 m) consisting of shallow thaw lakes nested within larger drained lake basins, highand low-centred polygons, and ice wedges. Poor subsurface drainage results in shallow active layer depths (< 1 m); standing water in many of the thaw lakes and ice wedges persists over much of the summer. The Foothills region comprises moist tussock/ dwarf shrub tundra dominated by Eriophorum vaginatum and Salix pulchra , and Betula nana within the water tracks. This area is characterized by low rolling hills (< 30 m relief ), water track drainages at the base of hillslopes and shallow active layer depths (< 1 m). These di erences in topography, climate and surface and sub-surface hydrology result in variations in vascular and non-vascular plant species composition between physiographic regions. The resulting regional di erences in plant community structure, function and composition could a ect both the observed carbon balance and the spectral re¯ ectance of the vegetation. Hence, one study site was located within each physiographic region. While not encompassing the entire range of land surface cover types in these areas (e.g. open water, peat hummocks, dry ridge-tops), these sites were representative of the two dominant land surface cover types found on the North Slope (i.e. wet sedge tundra and moist tussock/ dwarf shrub tundra). The ® rst site was situated just inland from the Arctic Ocean at Prudhoe Bay (70ß 21¾ N, 148ß 58¾ W) (® gure 1). The second site was located in the foothills of the Brooks Mountain Range, approximately 193 km inland (south) at Happy Valley (69ß 09¾ N, 2 148ß 50¾ W) (® gure 1). Twelve study plots (approximately 0.5 m ) were located at each research site along micro-topographical gradients encompassing the range of vegetation types present at each site. 4. M ethodology 4.1. CO2 ¯ ux measurements Data for this study were collected at the Prudhoe Bay and Happy Valley sites from mid-June through late-July, 1994. A closed gas-exchange system was used to measure CO2 ¯ uxes at each plot for both study sites ( Vourlitis et al. 1993 ). After sealing the chamber onto the permanently installed polycarbonate base, the system was allowed to come to equilibrium (approximately 30 s) and the change in CO2 concentration over three consecutive 10 s intervals was measured using a Li-Cor Estimating CO 2 exchange at two sites in Arctic tundra ecosystems 687 Figure 1. Location of the research sites on the North Slope of Alaska. 6250 Infrared Gas Analyzer; NEE was calculated as the average value of these three observations. After removing the chamber for approximately 30 s to allow ambient conditions to re-establish, dark ecosystem respiration was measured in a similar manner, except that a cloth blanket was placed over the chamber to keep out light. GPP was calculated as the di erence between NEE and ER. (See Vourlitis et al. (1993) for a more complete description of the closed chamber system.) Measurement of NEE and ER (and calculation of GPP) was conducted over a 24-h period approximately once a week at each site. During each diurnal 688 C. E. McMichael et al. measurement period, individual plots were sampled approximately every 1.5± 2.0 h resulting in 12± 16 observations for each plot. These measurements were then integrated over the 24-h observation period using trapezoidal integration in order to obtain daily values for each variable. Concurrent with NEE observations, 12± 16 measurements of air temperature were made inside the closed chamber, and 12± 16 measurements of soil temperature were made next to each plot at 0, 5 and 10 cm depth; a quantum sensor a xed to the chamber top measured incident PAR. 4.2. Radiometric measurements An Exotech 100 hand-held radiometer was used to measure spectral radiance over all plots at each study site (with chamber removed) from early-June through July 1994. The spectral responses of the four-channel radiometer corresponded to Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) Band 1 (blue, 0.45± 0.52 mm) and to Systems Probatoire d’Observation de la Terre (SPOT) high resolution visible (HRV) bands 1 (green, 0.50± 0.59 mm), 2 (red, 0.61± 0.68 mm) and 3 (near-infrared, 0.79± 0.89 mm). The radiometer was equipped with a 15ß ® eld of view and, when held at nadir approximately 1 m over the vegetated surface, sampled spectral radiant exitance from a circle approximately 0.4 m in diameter. Five radiometric observations were made above each plot on each sampling date and then arithmetically averaged to obtain a mean value for each target. Spectral radiance was subsequently converted to spectral re¯ ectance by standardizing mean plot radiance by reference panel ( barium sulphate, BaSO4 ) radiance measurements made both before and after each target observation. The NDVI was calculated for each plot from the red and near-infrared spectral re¯ ectances. The North Slope of Alaska is characterized by frequent and patchy cloud cover during the short growing season from June to August (Maxwell 1992). In June 1994 stratus (e.g. nimbostratus) and/ or cirrus cloud types were common, while July was typically dominated by stratocumulus, altocumulus, cirrus and cumulonimbus (table 1). Findings reported by Pinter et al. (1987) demonstrate the usefulness of band ratio spectral vegetation indices (e.g. the NDVI) for estimating biomass under a variety of sky cover conditions. These authors point out that such indices have the particular bene® t of retaining most of their information content under varying topographical and illumination conditions. That is, the NDVI should not be noticeably sensitive to changes in illumination intensities due to clouds passing near to and/ or in front of the sun because both the red and near-infrared bands react similarly to reductions in solar irradiance (Pinter et al. 1987). Previous hand-held radiometric work in this environment focused on obtaining spectral measurements on clear or virtually clear days (e.g. Hope et al. 1993, Stow et al. 1993 ). However, as these authors point out, this practice may preclude analyses of certain portions of the growing season and/ or severely limit sample sizes. Therefore, both Hope et al. (1993) and Stow et al. (1993) recommend undertaking experiments which investigate the possibility of using data collected under a variety of illumination conditions. A limited number of experiments were conducted during the 1994 ® eld season in order to evaluate the sensitivity of hand-held radiometric measurements to varying illumination conditions in this Arctic environment. On two occasions at Happy Valley (July 11 and 14) and once at Prudhoe Bay (July 9) measurements of spectral radiant exitance were made over a 24-h period by attaching the Exotech 100 radiometer to a support structure and suspending it approximately 0.75 m above a 689 Estimating CO 2 exchange at two sites in Arctic tundra ecosystems Table 1. Dates and locations of radiometric data collection and concurrent weather observations made on the North Slope of Alaska during the 1994 growing season. Date Weather 6 June 11 June 12 June 13 June 17 June 19 June 21 June 22 June 26 June 28 June 29 June 2 July 5 July 7 July 10 July 14 July 16 July 18 July 19 July 20 July 24 July 25 July Clear Clear Clear Clear Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy Cloudy Sun with clouds Sun with clouds Sun with cirrus Cm.cngts./ no direct sun Clear 100% stratus 100% stratus Ast. and cirrus with direct sun 100% stratus Broken stratus 100% cb. and nb. 100% stratus Sun with cst. and ccum. Happy Valley X X X X X X X X Prudhoe Bay X X X X X X X X X Abbreviations: cm.cngts. = cumulus congestus ; ast. = altostratus ; nb. = nimbostratus ; cst. = cirrostratus; ccum = cirrocumulus . X cb. = cumulonimbus ; homogeneous vegetated surface. The NDVI was calculated from the red and near-infrared spectral radiance. Plots of the radiometric values versus time of day (® gure 2) show that the individual red and near-infrared bands are a ected by the presence of clouds, while the NDVI is insensitive to changes in cloud cover. Thus, radiometric data for the present study were obtained under all weather conditions except rain. 4.3. Data analysis We used paired radiometric and chamber data (table 2) to investigate the aforementioned research hypotheses. Although every e ort was made to collect these datasets as simultaneously as possible, the sampling dates did not usually coincide over the study period. Barring extreme changes in precipitation and/ or radiation regimes it was assumed that the NDVI was relatively stable over a period of 2± 3 days at a given site. Mean daily values for each variable (GPP, PAR, ER and NDVI) for each site were computed by pooling all plots at a given location for each date (table 2). Simple linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the relationships between daily GPP (normalized for variations in PAR) and ER and the NDVI. Daily GPP was normalized by daily PAR after Bartlett et al. (1990) and Whiting et al. (1992) in order to compare the CO2 uptake of the wet sedge tundra and moist tussock/ dwarf shrub tundra under similar sunlight conditions. Stepwise linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the in¯ uence of transient environmental conditions on the relationships between daily GPP and ER and the NDVI. 690 C. E. McMichael et al. Figure 2. Diurnal trends for the red and near-infrared bands and the NDVI. Table 2. Pairing of radiometric and chamber data for the 1994 growing season. PB NDVI PB chamber HV NDVI HV chamber 22 June 28 June 2 July 14 July 19 July 25 July 21 June 27 June 4 July 11 July 18 July 26 July 17 26 29 10 16 24 18 June 24 June 1 July 8 July 15 July 22 July June June June July July July PB= Prudhoe Bay; HV= Happy Valley. 5. Results and discussion The arithmetic mean and the coe cient of variation (CV) for the NDVI, GPP and ER for the data collected on each date at each site are listed in table 3. Mean NDVI increased over the growing season at both Happy Valley (HV) and Prudhoe Bay (PB), a trend which corresponds to the growth of tundra vegetation during the short Arctic summer. Mean GPP and mean ER also tended to increase over the season at both sites. Mean values of GPP, NDVI and ER at Happy Valley were greater than at Prudhoe Bay. Gross primary production of Arctic tundra ecosystems generally increases with decreasing latitude as temperatures rise and moisture availability increases. Consequently, the NDVI could be expected to follow a similar latitudinal trend. The CO2 eƒ ux of wet sedge tundra at Prudhoe Bay was less than the eƒ ux at the drier inland site at Happy Valley because rates of organic decomposition at the coast are slower due to poorly aerated, waterlogged soils (Oechel et al. 1993 ). An examination of table 3 reveals that the CV values for each variable were less than 37%, indicating a high degree of similarity among the 12 plots at each site on a given date. The CVs for the NDVI, GPP and ER were larger for the observations Estimating CO 2 exchange at two sites in Arctic tundra ecosystems 691 Table 3. Mean and coe cient of variation (CV) of NDVI, GPP and ER by site and date. Site Date Mean NDVI CV NDVI Mean GPP1 CV GPP Mean ER1 CV ER HV HV HV HV HV HV 17 June 26 June 29 June 10 July 16 July 24 July 0.5634 0.5810 0.6060 0.6648 0.6924 0.6936 0.144 0.137 0.102 0.107 0.123 0.077 0.5549 1.1104 1.9619 2.3228 3.1280 2.6145 0.150 0.161 0.185 0.141 0.290 0.184 0.9475 1.2395 2.3224 2.8646 3.1293 2.8121 0.139 0.183 0.156 0.259 0.297 0.176 PB PB PB PB PB PB 22 28 2 14 19 25 0.3244 0.3397 0.3516 0.4612 0.4462 0.5077 0.203 0.235 0.158 0.112 0.126 0.105 0.2050 0.3585 0.8727 1.5092 1.3283 2.0156 0.838 0.330 0.249 0.206 0.205 0.197 0.3586 0.6569 0.8684 1.4024 0.7664 1.5912 0.367 0.363 0.302 0.351 0.311 0.198 1 June June July July July July gC mÕ 2 dayÕ 1 . made at Prudhoe Bay than for those at Happy Valley. The relatively low CV values for a given site could be expected as a result of the close spacing (usually < 1 m) of the ¯ ux chambers at each site. Indeed, previous work in this environment has demonstrated that plots spaced less than 100 m apart tend to be spatially autocorrelated (Hope et al. 1995 ). Further, the variation in micro-topography over short distances at Prudhoe Bay is more pronounced than at Happy Valley, perhaps accounting for the relative di erence in CV values for the NDVI, GPP and ER between sites. The larger early-season coe cients of variation for the NDVI and GPP at both sites probably resulted from the initial di erential growth rates of the various species found at each site. In general, the values tended to decrease as the season progressed as vegetation biomass and CO2 exchange processes at a site approached their peak values and were likely to be in¯ uenced by more regional constraints such as precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. Values of the CV for ER were larger at Prudhoe Bay than at Happy Valley over the growing season, presumably representing the contrast in organic decomposition rates between the drier polygonal areas and the waterlogged lake basin areas. 5.1. NDV I± GPP/ PAR relationship A scatterplot showing the relationship between daily GPP/ PAR and the NDVI for both study sites is given in ® gure 3. A linear relationship between GPP/ PAR and the NDVI is depicted for each site. GPP/ PAR was regressed on the NDVI for each site separately and the regression models were evaluated using a t-test to determine whether the regression slope was signi® cantly di erent from zero. An F -test described by Pindyck and Rubinfeld (1981) was used to determine whether the regression slopes for the two sites were signi® cantly di erent from one another. For each study site, the regression slope coe cient was signi® cantly di erent from zero at the 0.02 con® dence level. The NDVI accounted for almost 68% of the variation in GPP/ PAR at Happy Valley (equation (1)) and approximately 74% for Prudhoe Bay (equation (2)). Additionally, the slope coe cients were signi® cantly di erent from each other as the calculated value of F (11.39) exceeded the critical value (10.04) at the 0.01 692 C. E. McMichael et al. Figure 3. Scatterplot of GPP/ PAR versus NDVI for Prudhoe Bay and Happy Valley study sites. con® dence level. These results should be viewed with caution given the small sample size (n = 6). GPP/ PAR= 0.477NDVIÕ 0.249 2 (adj. R = 0.675; SE = 0.018) (1) GPP/ PAR= 0.211NDVIÕ 0.061 2 (adj. R = 0.740; SE = 0.009) (2) These results are in agreement with similar hand-held remote sensing studies conducted in other environments (e.g. wetland grass canopies, Bartlett et al. 1990; sub-Arctic tundra, Whiting et al. 1992 ). Further, these results are analogous to the ® ndings of global-scale studies which have demonstrated that the carbon uptake of whole biomes (i.e. all vegetation types pooled) is related to satellite-derived vegetation spectral re¯ ectances (e.g. Tucker et al. 1986, Fung et al. 1987 ). The di erent relationships at the two sites may be explained by the di erences in climate, topography and hydrology between ecosystems which, over time, have led to contrasting vegetation characteristics such as species composition, dominant species type, biomass and leaf-area index. These variables and their control over rates of ecosystem photosynthesis and PAR absorption could result in di erent responses in GPP for a given ¯ ux of PAR for tussock (Happy Valley) and wet sedge (Prudhoe Bay) tundra ecosystems. Moreover, variations in the magnitude of observed NDVI values between ecosystems could be due to di erences in vegetation composition, function and structure. 5.2. NDV I± ER relationship The observed relationship between ER and the NDVI for both study sites is given in ® gure 4. A linear relationship between ER and the NDVI was evident for both sites and the regression of ER on the NDVI indicated that the NDVI accounted for approximately 86% of the variation in ER at Happy Valley (equation (3)) and for almost 70% at Prudhoe Bay (equation (4)). The regression slope coe cients for Happy Valley and Prudhoe Bay were signi® cantly di erent from zero at the 0.01 693 ± 2 ± 1 ER (gC m d ) Estimating CO 2 exchange at two sites in Arctic tundra ecosystems Figure 4. Scatterplot of ER versus NDVI for Prudhoe Bay and Happy Valley study sites. and 0.02 levels, respectively. Further, these slope coe cients were signi® cantly di erent from each other with the calculated value of F (18.16) exceeding the critical F -value (12.83) at the 0.005 con® dence level. ER= 14.992NDVIÕ 7.278 2 (adj. R = 0.857; SE = 0.346) (3) ER= 5.338NDVIÕ 1.222 2 (adj. R = 0.697; SE = 0.257) (4) The results of the ER± NDVI analyses point to the NDVI as a potential estimator of ecosystem respiration rates in moist tussock/ dwarf shrub and wet sedge tundra. However, the relationship between the two variables is most likely indirect rather than direct. ER is the combined respiration from plants, roots and soil microbes and is in¯ uenced by soil organic matter, soil environmental conditions (e.g. moisture and temperature), root mass and above-ground biomass. Above-ground biomass has been shown to covary with the NDVI in Arctic tundra vegetation (Hope et al. 1993) and the variations in root mass are likely to follow the long-term average variations in above-ground biomass (although year-to-year relationships may not be constant). Therefore, below-ground biomass could be indirectly related to the NDVI. Further, the organic matter in the soil is a function of the integrated historical production of vegetation and spatial variations in soil moisture characteristics are also likely to be re¯ ected in vegetation patterns. The soil environment, in turn, is a function of the interaction of climate, topography, geology, etc. over time. The `undisturbed’ nature of the North Slope landscape has produced a relatively high correspondence between observed vegetation and soil patterns. This implies that vegetation in this environment is a good indirect indicator of soil environmental conditions and, therefore, of ecosystem respiration. This premise seems to be supported by a scatterplot of GPP/ PAR versus ER for both sites (not shown) which depicted a linear relationship between these variables 2 (R = 0.63, n = 12). This implies that, as the environment became more favorable for vegetation growth over the growing season (e.g. increasing availability of nutrients 694 C. E. McMichael et al. as the depth of the active layer increases), it also favored increased rates of ecosystem respiration (e.g. increasing soil aeration with increasing active layer depth). Since the NDVI has been widely used as an indicator of vegetation processes, and because it is strongly related to mean site GPP/ PAR in this environment, it is reasonable to expect that the NDVI may serve as an indirect indicator of the magnitude of ER in Arctic tundra ecosystems. However, while our method produced statistically signi® cant relationships between ER and NDVI and, thus, supports our plot-scale hypothesis, a more physically based approach may be required to account for environmental factors (e.g. standing water, slope/ aspect) controlling variations in ER at larger scales. 5.3. NDV I and ecosystem carbon ¯ uxes Ð the in¯ uence of environmental factors As stated previously, Arctic tundra carbon ¯ uxes have been shown to be in¯ uenced by variations in transient environmental conditions (e.g. air/ soil temperature, incident PAR). Since the relationships between vegetation spectral re¯ ectance and ecosystem carbon ¯ uxes were distinct for Happy Valley and Prudhoe Bay, the in¯ uence of environmental factors on these relationships was investigated separately for each study site using stepwise linear regression. 5.3.1. GPP/ PAR versus NDV I The results from the stepwise regression analysis for Happy Valley indicated that a combination of the NDVI with the measured chamber and soil variables did not explain any more of the variability in GPP/ PAR than did the NDVI alone. However, the resulting regression model for Prudhoe Bay (equation (5)) suggested that a combination of maximum soil surface temperature (TS0MAX) and the NDVI improved the predictive power of the model, with 97% of the variation in GPP/ PAR being associated with these variables (an increase of 23% over the NDVI alone, equation (2)). Both regression slope coe cients were signi® cantly di erent from zero at the 0.01 con® dence level. GPP/ PAR= 0.335NDVIÕ 0.003TS0MAXÕ 0.076 2 (adj. R = 0.969; SE = 0.003) (5) We cannot, however, be certain that soil temperature was the variable directly a ecting GPP/ PAR, since there is a complex interaction between soil temperature and moisture and it can be di cult to separate out the e ects of each factor on ecosystem carbon exchange (Nadelho er et al. 1992, Oechel and Vourlitis 1994). Increases in soil surface temperatures may result from a reduction in soil moisture and a declining water table, which would lead to increased rates of soil organic matter decomposition and nutrient mineralization (e.g. Oberbauer et al. 1991). Therefore, observed values of both CO2 uptake and eƒ ux may be expected to increase under these drier conditions. Because soil temperatures are logistically di cult to gather over large areas in Arctic landscapes, a remote sensing-based model of carbon uptake which includes this variable may be hard to implement operationally. Large-scale observations of air temperature are much more readily available than soil temperatures in this environment. As maximum soil surface temperature was highly correlated (> 95%) with chamber air temperatures, GPP/ PAR was regressed on the NDVI and chamber air temperature variables (i.e. maximum, minimum, mean) for Prudhoe Bay in order to assess the utility of using air temperature (in addition to the NDVI) to estimate Estimating CO 2 exchange at two sites in Arctic tundra ecosystems 695 GPP/ PAR at this site. Although a model including both the NDVI and mean chamber air temperature (CTMEAN) (equation (6)) explained somewhat less variation in GPP/ PAR than the model based on maximum soil surface temperature, it accounted for 17% more variation in carbon uptake at Prudhoe Bay than the model which estimated GPP/ PAR from the NDVI alone (equation (2)). GPP/ PAR= 0.0.308NDVIÕ 0.002CTMEANÕ 0.076 2 (adj. R = 0.906; SE = 0.006) (6) 5.3.2. ER versus NDV I Following the arguments presented in the preceding section, ER was regressed on the NDVI, chamber and soil variables using stepwise linear regression. The results of this analysis for Happy Valley indicated that the combination of maximum soil surface temperature (TS0MAX) and the NDVI greatly improved the predictive 2 power of the regression model, with the adjusted R increasing from 0.857 (NDVI alone, equation (3)) to 0.985 (NDVI + TS0MAX, equation (7)). ER= 11.069NDVI+0.072TS0MAXÕ 5.851 2 (adj. R = 0.985; SE = 0.112) (7) However, due to the logistical di culties associated with making measurements of soil temperatures over large areas on the North Slope, the combination of the NDVI and chamber air temperature variables was also investigated. Although stepwise regression results from this analysis (equation (8)) explained slightly less of the variability in ER than the (NDVI + TS0MAX) model (equation (7)), they still accounted for more of the variability in ER at Happy Valley (97%) than did the NDVI-only model (86%) (equation (3)). ER= 8.601NDVI+ 0.082CTMEANÕ 4.357 2 (adj. R = 0.970; SE = 0.158) (8) Together, the NDVI and CTMEAN explained approximately 94% of the variation in ER at Prudhoe Bay (equation (9)), compared with 74% using the NDVI as the only independent variable (equation (4)). ER= 2.389NDVI+ 0.066CTMEANÕ 0.749 2 (adj. R = 0.942; SE = 0.112) (9) It should be noted that this model is based on the same two independent variables as the Happy Valley model to estimate ER, the NDVI and CTMEAN. 6. Conclusions The overall purpose of this research was to investigate the relationship between the NDVI (derived from hand-held radiometric data) and chamber carbon exchange (i.e. GPP and ER) in Arctic tundra ecosystems on the North Slope of AlaskaÐ the ® rst step in estimating the regional carbon balance of Arctic tundra on the North Slope of Alaska using aircraft and/ or satellite remotely sensed data. This relationship was evaluated for variations in vegetation cover type and environmental factors. All analyses were based on data collected during a portion of the short Arctic growing season (green-up through peak-greenness, early June± late July, 1994 ) under all weather conditions except rain. The conclusions drawn from these analyses, therefore, apply only to comparable surface, meteorological and environmental conditions. Overall, this study demonstrated a relationship between a remotely sensed 696 C. E. McMichael et al. spectral vegetation index (i.e. the NDVI) and measurements of mean site GPP/ PAR and ER at two study sites in Arctic tundra ecosystems. Moreover, in most cases the inclusion of chamber air and soil temperatures in the regression analyses improved the modelled relationships. However, because the radiometric data used in this study were collected under di erent cloud cover conditions, future research should examine how much of the residual variance in these relationships may be associated with non-uniform sky conditions. Further, it is suggested that the next step in this study should focus on validating the models developed in this research with data collected in subsequent summers at a variety of sites with diverse land cover characteristics (e.g. peat hummocks and open water). Additionally, future work should focus on developing techniques for `scaling-up’ these models for use at larger scales (i.e. regional and circumpolar). The use of mean site values of the NDVI, GPP/ PAR and ER in this study is consistent with this goal. As previously discussed, the mean site values are the result of pooling all plots at a study site. The use of these pooled values e ectively integrates the variability in these variables at each study site in a manner analogous to the way in which aircraft / satellite sensors integrate sub-pixel variability of surface variables to the pixel level. While conventional chamber and micrometeorological techniques permit the gas exchange processes of di erent vegetation types (ecosystems) to be measured at selected locations, these analyses are limited in both space and time due to the intensive nature of the ® eld work and/ or the costs associated with the instrumentation. However, remote sensing-based techniques have demonstrated the potential to provide estimates of carbon ¯ uxes in a more timely and e cient manner. A variety of authors have investigated both process-based and empirical remote sensing approaches to estimate the net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) at di erent scales in many environments. However, to our knowledge no one has applied these techniques to the problem of estimating CO2 ¯ uxes in Arctic tundra landscapes. Acknowle dgm ents The authors would like to thank Dr Arthur Getis, Department of Geography, San Diego State University, for his time and expert statistical advice. 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