Role of Freight in the Greening of Transport:
Update on carbon trends and initiatives
Professor Alan McKinnon
Kühne Logistics University, Hamburg
Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh
FTA Logistics Carbon Reduction Conference
29th May 2012
Steady Upward Trend in CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere
Updated May 2012
Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Rise in Average Global Temperature
average global temperature in 2010 was the highest on record.
Source: http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/01/29/met-office-in-the-media-29-january-2012/
Evidence of Land Surface Warming: Berkeley Earth Project
October 2011
Median line
1979-2000
Lowest on record
Source: Guardian 12th Sept 2011
Outcomes of the Durban Climate Change Conference 2011
Kyoto protocol extended from 2012 to 2017:
Official framework for the European Emissions Trading Scheme and Clean
Development Mechanism continues for at least 5 more years
Launch of a process to renegotiate Kyoto Protocol (so-called Durban Platform) –
hope for agreement in 2015 and implementation by 2020
Agreed governance for a ‘Green Climate Fund’ of $100 bn to help developing
countries reduce their GHG emissions and adapt to climate change
‘Climate diplomats’ - pleased with the outcomes – more than expected
Scientists and environmental groups very disappointed
2015 Climate accord will have to be very bold and radical for us to
stay within 2o C temperature rise by 2100
DHL 2050 Study: 5 Scenarios
‘Mass consumption for population of 9 billion’
‘Destruction of ecosystem implicitly accepted’
On course for 6o C temperature rise by 2100
Rise in sea level requiring ‘massive expenditure on flood protection’
Megaefficiency in
megacities
Customised
lifestyles
Paralysing
Global resilience –
protectionism local adaptation
http://www.dp-dhl.com/en/logistics_around_us/delivering_tomorrow_logistics_2050.html
Economic Growth Increases Freight Transport Emissions per Capita
US
Canada
Australia
Source: Eom, Schipper and Thompson, 2012
Projected Growth of Inland Freight Movement (billion tonne-km)
Source: EU Transvisions project (2009)
EU
+160%
43 years
India
+166%
bn tonne-kms
(McKinsey, 2010)
13 years
Availability of Freight Data to Monitor Impact of Climate Change Policies
road


Tonnes-lifted
Tonne-kms
Unit loads
Distance travelled

Average payload weight

Vehicle utilisation by weight

Vehicle utilisation by volume
% of empty running

Fuel efficiency

Carbon intensity of fuel
 in some EU countries
rail


waterway


intermodal

 for most / all EU countries
EU Research Project on improving collection, analysis
and dissemination of freight data
Now unlikely to be funded
http://www.acea.be/images/uploads/files/20101116_SAG_Report.pdf
% of lorry-kms run empty: national and international transport
2010 (UK data for 2009)
Source: Eurostat report 63/2011
Misrepresentation of the UK Road Freight Sector in Eurostat Data?
Average payload
weight (2010)
% Deviation from the Average Weight of an EU Truck Load
UK has lowest average payload weight
Despite 44 tonne weight limit
A statistical anomaly?
Only a partial measure of vehicle utilisation
CO2 emissions from UK domestic road haulage
UK-registered lorries
20.0
tonnes of CO2
19.5
19.0
18.5
18.0
17.5
17.0
Total emissions
16.5
16.0
15.5
15.0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
kg CO2 per tonne-km
0.145
0.14
Carbon intensity
0.135
0.13
0.125
0.12
0.115
0.11
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Data Sources: DfT: Road Freight Statistics; DEFRA: Guidelines to GHG Conversion Factors for Company Reporting
Modal Split for Inland Freight Transport in the EU: 2009 and 2030
EC White Paper (2011) target for 30% of freight tonnes moving over
distances greater than 300km to move by rail or inland waterway by 2030
Without target: Business-as-Usual projection of modal split
90%
80%
% of tonne-kms
70%
60%
50%
Road
40%
Rail
IWW
30%
20%
10%
0%
2009 actual
without target
with target
Source: Tavasszy and van Meijeren (2011) – based on Trans-Tools analysis
Reflections on the 300km target
Public policy interventions required to achieve it ?
Need for a 60% long-haul tariff increase to induce it? (Tavasszy and ven Meijeren)
Differential rates of ‘greening’ and ‘decarbonisation’ by modes over next 20-40 years
Energy efficiency improvements on trucking will make it harder for rail to compete
Additional rail and IWW infrastructure capacity required to meet target
Carbon implications of this infrastructural expansion
SB5
administration / personnel / IT
vehicle / infrastructure construction
SB4
vehicle / infrastructure maintenance
SB3
energy supply chain
SB2
vehicle operations
SB1
Source: NTM
Feasibility and Desirability of Product-Level Carbon Auditing and Labelling ?
Huge cost, time and effort in product level carbon auditing
Impact on consumer behaviour very uncertain
‘Personal carbon trading could
be essential in reducing our
national carbon footprint’
House of Commons
Environmental Audit Committee
(2008)
Retreat from the Carbon Labelling of Products
By 2010 – roughly 1% (by value) of food and drink products had a
carbon label in the UK (Guardian 13 October 2010)
Rate of carbon labelling for Tesco range: 125 products / annum
560 years to carbon footprint and label the entire range
‘too time-consuming and expensive’
failure of other companies in the sector to
support this initiative
Wal-Mart scaling down plans to assign a
composite ‘sustainability index’ to their products
‘We cannot shop our way our of climate change’
Mark Lynas
Efforts to standardise the measurement of freight-related CO2 emissions
UK Freight Best Practice programme gets a Welsh make-over
www.freightbestpractice.org.uk
Expanding Literature on the Greening of Trucks
Aerodynamic Profiling: a 360o perspective
Teardrop
Boat-tails
Cheetah
Dolphin
Trailer under-tray
EU proposal to relax truck length limit to enhance aerodynamic profiling
port-centric logistics
Levels of Environmental Intervention
Supply Chain Structure
Logistics System Design
Vehicle Routing and Scheduling
Vehicle Loading
Driving
Vehicle Maintenance
Vehicle Design
Vehicle + equipment
manufacturers
Logistic service providers
Individual shippers
Supply chain partners
National Government
European Commission
horizontal collaboration
Port-centric Logistics: what are the carbon benefits
Source: PD Ports
London Gateway
60 m fewer lorry-kms
per annum
148,000 tonnes of
CO2 saved annually
Comparison of CO2 Emissions from Conventional and Port-Centric Logistics
Supply Chains for Retail Imports
69
Manchester
DC
Carlisle
369
Preston
253
Stoke-on-Trent
Wakefield
ICD
134
Teesport
port
200
Manchester
DC
Carlisle
366
Preston
250
Stoke-on-Trent
DC
port-centric logistics system
container movement
box van trailer movement
transport + handling
260
Carlisle
151
Preston
210
Stoke-on-Trent
134
kg of CO2
263
242
242
total kg of CO2
port to shop
McKinnon and Woolford (2011) The Effects of Port-Centric Logistics on the Carbon Intensity of the
Maritime Supply Chain: A Preliminary Review’ Proceedings of Low Carbon Shipping Conference , Strathclyde University.
Comparison of CO2 Emissions from Conventional and Port-Centric Logistics
Supply Chains for Retail Imports
116
Manchester
DC
Carlisle
548
Preston
431
Stoke-on-Trent
441
Birmingham
ICD
266
Felixstowe
port
395
Manchester
DC
Carlisle
560
Preston
444
Stoke-on-Trent
DC
port-centric logistics system
454
Carlisle
458
Preston
386
Stoke-on-Trent
299
% CO2 savings from adopting PCL system
Route
shop location
Carlisle
Preston
Stoke-on-Trent
Felixstowe – Birmingham ICD – Manchester DC – shop
16
11
32
Felixstowe – Manchester DC – shop
18
13
34
Teesport –Wakefield ICD – Manchester DC – shop
59
17
8
Teesport (DC) – Manchester DC – shop
59
16
7
Estimated Distance and CO2 Savings from PCL
CO2 reductions
31,000 tonnes
13,000 tonnes
7 -10, 000 tonnes
7,000 tonnes
2,000 tonnes
Source: Lloyds List
Empty Container Repositioning: Impact on CO2 emissions
Source: J-P Rodrigue ‘Geography of Transport Systems’
Much unnecessary movement of empty containers
Very limited pooling of empty containers by shipping lines within port hinterlands
Shippers have little incentive to backload containers
Little co-ordination of import and export container movements
No statistics available to assess scale of the problem and potential CO2 savings
Company
Booker Group Plc
Kraft Foods
Nestle UK Ltd
Pepsico Food & Beverages Europe
Sainsbury’s
Arla Foods
ASDA Stores Ltd
Bacardi Brown-Foreman Brands
Brakes
Coca-Cola Enterprises Ltd
Colgate Palmolive (UK) Ltd
Diageo Great Britain Limited
Gerber Juice Company Ltd
H J Heinz
Kellogg Marketing & Sales Co
Kimberley Clark
L’Oreal UK and Ireland
Marks & Spencer plc
Mars
Molson Coors Brewing Company
Musgrave
Palmer & Harvey McLane Ltd
Procter & Gamble
Tesco
Unilever UK
United Biscuits
Waitrose
Horizontal Collaboration
ECR UK – Starfish project
Pilot survey 2009-10
27 Large FMCG Companies Participated 2010-11
Annualised Data
No of
No. of Pallets or
No. of Vehicles Annual Tpt
Annual km No of
Movements
Pall Equiv
or Full Veh
CO2 Emissions
(millions) Depots
/Year
Moved/Year
Equiv's
(tonnes)
47,104 9,772,164
126,681,239
1,184.982
271
6,765
1,120,200
No of
Flows
Annual Tonne Average length
km (billions)
of haul (km)
10.63
124.2
Represents
 £200 billion of UK turnover
 8% of all UK road tonne-kms
 6.3% of truck kilometres travelled
A total of 271 warehouse locations
6 retailers account for 91 warehouses
18 manufacturers account for 137
3 wholesalers account for 43
24 (46%) warehouses fall within 9 zones
with a 35 km radius
Consolidation of Inter-regional Flows
channelling flows through consolidation hubs in each region
Location of hubs optimised with respect to intra-regional flows
S
C
D
Region 1
Region 2
S
D
D
C
D
C
D
D
C
S
Region 3
S
C
S
S
D
D
D
C
% saving for Part Load Movements Affected
% saving over All Movements
Total
Cost
Total
Kilometres
11.7%
2.6%
20.8%
4.3%
Total
Hours
Tonnes
of CO2
6.1% 18.9%
1.7% 3.7%
Potential for Consolidating Loads to Support Switch of Inter-regional Flows
from Road to Rail
 Fourteen inter-modal terminals considered
 Minimum 160 kms of rail distance to be economically viable
 26 pallets per wagon, 22 wagons per train
Terminals near depots
Region
3MG (Merseyside Multimodal Gateway) - Widnes
North West
3MG (Merseyside Multimodal Gateway) - Widnes
North West
DIRFT/EMDC
East Midlands
DIRFT/EMDC
East Midlands
DIRFT/EMDC
East Midlands
Trafford Park
North West
Trafford Park
North West
Supply/Delivery area
From
To
From
To
From
To
From
To
From
To
From
To
From
To
North East
North East
Greater London
Greater London
Scotland
Scotland
Wales
Wales
North East
North East
Wales
Wales
Scotland
Scotland
No of wagons
per day
15
36
23
7
22
34
13
24
24
24
14
25
2
19
No of trains per
day
0.68
1.64
1.05
0.32
1.00
1.54
0.58
1.09
1.09
1.09
0.64
1.14
0.09
0.86
Meeting to Feedback the Results to the 27 Companies
assessing company willingness to collaborate
27 companies
27 companies
not possible
40 % of cells assigned green coding
possibility
good prospect
From Analysis to Facilitation, Orchestration and Implementation
Work Package 3:
35
Identifying and Validating Successful Collaborative Business Models
http://www.co3-project.eu/
Centre for Sustainable Road Freight Transport (CSRFT)
• Collaboration between Heriot-Watt & Cambridge Universities
• Funded by government research council + industrial consortium
• Start date: October 2012
5 year programme
Contact details
Kühne Logistics University – The KLU
Wissenschaftliche Hochschule für Logistik und
Unternehmensführung
Brooktorkai 20
20457 Hamburg
E-Mail: [email protected]
Website: www.the-klu.org