Making the Case:
THE NEW
ECONOMY
of an Aging Population
in Metropolitan
Atlanta
Mike Alexander, AICP Research and Analytics Division Manager
Atlanta Regional Commission [email protected]
For the First Time in Forever……
Fewer
Births and
less
Migration
Means
FEWER
“New”
People
Fertility
http://hailtoyou.wordpress.com/2012/10/07/the-usas-total-fertility-rates-by-race-1980-to-2010/
Population Growth Comparison
200,000,000
150,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
100,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
50,000,000
1,000,000
500,000
500,000
0
0
0
-500,000
-50,000,000
2010
Change 2010-40
United States
2010
Change 2010-40
20-County Area
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
2010
Change 2010-40
Rest of Georgia
(139 Counties)
www.gapminder.org
Longevity
Age and Sex in USA: 1945-2060
Source: Census Bureau National Projections 2012
Who is Working is Changing
0.600
1.000
0.900
0.504
0.500
0.800
0.700
0.400
0.600
0.316
0.300
0.500
0.253
0.400
0.200
0.300
0.200
0.100
0.100
0.000
0.000
1990
2000
Ages 65-69
2010
2020
Ages 70-74
2030
2040
Ages 75+
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (10- County Area)
1990
2000
Ages 16-19
2010
2020
Ages 25-29
2030
Ages 45-54
2040
NEW ECONOMIC STRENGTH
•
In 2013 Q1, those aged 65+ held 3.7% of
the jobs in the 10-county ARC area
•
The average monthly wage is $1,208 for
those 65+, which does lag the overall
average monthly wage for all others (1864) in the workforce at $1,400
• …For some higher-paying industries, e.g.
Professional Services, Mgmt. of Companies, average
wages for 65+ are higher
Billion in
65+ Wages
Actually, it is
$960 million
(2013)
•
let’s compare to 2007 (just 5 years ago)…
then to 2000
Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators (ARC Analysis)
Growth in the 65+ Workforce
2000
34,000
2013
67,000
Increased by Almost 100%
• From 2000-2007, the jobs for those 65+
did increase 16,802, BUT
– Jobs for 18-64 increased 119,786
• The explosion in 65+ happened in
recession and recovery period of 20072013
• Between 2007 and 2013 (recession and
recovery), the 65+ workforce has
increased by 14,846 jobs while the 18-64
job base has declined by 78,656 jobs!
• So jobs filled by 65+ went up almost 30%, while
jobs filled by those aged 18-64 fell by 4%
Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators (ARC Analysis)
Rehearsing the Future
using Economic
Forecasting
WHAT DOES REMI SAY?
REMI Econometric Model Features
• Model incorporates
four unique
quantitative
methodologies
• Each model is
custom built to
match regional
client specificity
Source: REMI
Integrated
Dynamic
Customized
Structural
• Measures economic
impacts and
responsive
demographic and
economic changes
over time
• Incorporates
transparent and robust
economic linkages
built on proven
methods and theory
Age Population Growth
600
500
In Thousands
400
300
200
100
0
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
1990
35-39
40-44
45-49
To 2013
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
50-54
55-59
60-64
To 2040
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age Composition Change
12.00%
10.00%
Percent of Total Population
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
-2.00%
-4.00%
0-4
5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
1990
To 2013
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
To 2040
85+
2000
Extreme Aging
1800
Thousands
1600
1400
1200
Ages 85+
Ages 80-84
Ages 75-79
1000
Ages 70-74
Ages 65-69
800
Ages 60-64
600
400
200
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
14
Regional Age By Race/Ethnicity 1990 to 2040
Age 0-14
100%
8%
90%
80%
30%
100%
16%
21%
24%
8%
70%
33%
60%
34%
50%
9%
33%
30%
40%
30%
65%
54%
20%
30%
27%
90%
80%
37%
37%
10%
34%
Age 25-64
80%
2%
2000
6%
2010
10%
7%
23%
2020
13%
2030
17%
27%
70%
31%
60%
30%
17%
7%
23%
26%
9%
37%
50%
34%
32%
30%
40%
66%
51%
20%
42%
40%
36%
35%
2030
2040
10%
31%
30%
74%
1990
2000
2010
2020
100%
1%
2%
4%
90%
17%
3%
4%
2040
21%
9%
50%
40%
14%
0%
1990
90%
12%
32%
60%
0%
100%
Age 15-24
29%
70%
30%
41%
3%
29%
80%
20%
52%
48%
41%
23%
11%
9%
25%
60%
26%
50%
82%
78%
30%
45%
22%
70%
40%
63%
18%
7%
Age 65+
71%
66%
61%
20%
54%
10%
10%
0%
0%
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Population Determinants
60
9000
50
8000
40
7000
30
6000
20
5000
10
4000
0
3000
-10
2007
2000
2010
2013
2016
2019
Net Econ migrants - All
2022
2025
2028
Natural Change
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
2031
2034
Total Population
2037
2040
Total Population in Millions
In Thousands
Components
Region’s Employment Opportunity
Economic Migrants by Race/ Ethnicity
25
21.228
20
in Thousands
15.746
15
10
8.465
4.459
5
0
2011
2015
2019
White-NonHispanic
2023
Black-NonHispanic
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
2027
2031
Other-NonHispanic
2035
Hispanic
2039
1990 Labor Force
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
Labor Force 2013
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
Labor Force 2040
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
Dimensions of Regional Growth
Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population
and Change
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
Fiscal Effects
of an Aging
Economic
Benefits
of Population
“Retirees”
• Retirees bring incomes earned from
outside of region
• Pension Payments, Social Security, and
other retirement savings
• Outside income spent on housing, health
care, consumer goods and services
• Attracting (or retaining) retirees can be
viewed as an “export industry” of the
region, similar to tourism
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
Fiscal Effects
of an Aging
Retirement
Migration
andPopulation
the Economy
• Demand Side
– Retirees have significant spending on goods and services
– Consumption patterns differ for retirees (e.g. more health
care spending)
• Supply Side
– Loss of labor force as baby boom moves from working to
retirement
– Regions need to replace this labor force through natural
growth or in-migration
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
Effects of anMigration
Aging Population
REMIFiscal
Retirement
Scenario
What if more retirees move to Metro Atlanta???
$40Billion
More in
Personal Income
$7.8Billion
In Additional GDP
Source: REMI
• FOR THE 20-COUNTY AREA; ARC
TRANSIGHT MODEL
• Assumptions
– Annual increase of 1,000 65+ retired
migrants per year to 20-county economy
from 2015-2040
– Distribution weighted on 65+
population in each county
– No explicit costs considered
• Potential Impacts (DRAFT; not “net”
benefits)
– Increase of $40B in Personal Income
2015-2040
– Increase of $7.8B in GDP 2015-2040
– Almost 100,000 more job-years for the
economy ‘15-’40
– Population increase of 16,000 by 2040
(LOSS across some other cohorts)
EffectsAge
of anMigration
Aging Population
REMI Fiscal
Working
Scenario
What if more working age(18-64) people move to Metro Atlanta?
$4Billion
More in
Personal Income
$2.6Billion
In Additional GDP
Source: REMI (ARC Analysis)
• FOR THE 20-COUNTY AREA; ARC
TRANSIGHT MODEL
• Assumptions
– Annual increase of 1,000 migrants aged
18-64 per year to 20-county economy
from 2015-2040
– Distribution weighted on population
aged 18-64 in each county
– No explicit costs considered
• Potential Impacts (DRAFT; not “net”
benefits)
– Increase of $4B in Personal Income
2015-2040
– Increase of $2.6 in GDP 2015-2040
– Almost 29,400 more job-years for the
economy ‘15-’40
– Population increase of 8,000 by 2040
Fiscal
Effects
an Aging
What
YouofNeed
toPopulation
know!
• The New Economy is increasingly dependent on the
work of our 65+ population
• These workers are already earning close to a BILLION
dollars a year in wages
• In the future, these workers will add billions to our
regional economy in the future.
• Attracting additional retirees to Metro Atlanta would
have strong positive impact to our Economy
• Seniors are a critical part of our economic
competitiveness
Source: REMI (ARC Analysis)
Making the Case:
THE NEW
ECONOMY
of an Aging Population
Mike Alexander, AICP Research and Analytics Division Manager
Atlanta Regional Commission [email protected]
(1)National Demographic Trends
2014
2030
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
(2)National Demographic Trends
Fiscal Effects of an Aging Population
2014-2030
Source: REMI, Fulton “Graying of America” webinar
Thousands
Regional Attractiveness
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
-0.08
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039
Net Ret Migrants
Source: Plan 2040 Transportation Update, 2014
Net Domestic Migrants
Net Int. Migrant
National Labor Force Participation Rates by Race/ Ethnicity
Estimated 1992-Projected 2022
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
1992
2002
Hispanic
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2012
Asian
White NH
2022
Black
Region’s Labor Force
4,000
67%
3,600
66%
3,200
65%
2,800
64%
2,400
63%
2,000
62%
1,600
61%
1,200
60%
800
59%
400
58%
0
57%
2010
2015
2020
2025
Labor Force
2030
Participation rates
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (20- County Area)
2035
2040
Rate
in Thousands
Regional Labor Market